NFC West: Percy Harvin

There's little sense in taking the bait when San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh tells a radio program Michael Crabtree "has the best hands I've ever seen on a wide receiver."

Anyone with a strong grasp of NFL history would place Cris Carter, Raymond Berry and Steve Largent on a short list for receivers with the surest hands.

Hall of Famer Ken Houston, speaking for a 2008 piece on all-time great wideouts, stood up for AFL stars Otis Taylor and Lionel Taylor.

"Lionel Taylor, I mean, he would catch a BB," Houston said.

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson, speaking for the same piece, said Randy Moss, then with New England, had the best hands in the NFL at that time (2008).

"A lot of guys can catch," Thompson said then. "He can catch on any platform, as we say in scouting. He can adjust and catch it over the top of somebody's head, catch it falling down, and it doesn't matter if he is covered."

With Moss now on the 49ers, it is possible Crabtree does not possess the best hands among wide receivers on his own team.

Oops. I wasn't going to take the bait on this one, but now it's too late. Time to regroup.

Bottom line, I suspect Crabtree has impressed Harbaugh this offseason, and Harbaugh would like that to continue for as long as possible. By offering such strong public praise for Crabtree, Harbaugh is setting a standard for Crabtree to meet this season. He realizes Crabtree has the ability to meet that standard, or else he wouldn't make the statement.

We should all recall Harbaugh's calling quarterback Alex Smith "elite" and promoting him for the Pro Bowl last season. Then as now, Harbaugh was standing up for his guy. Smith enjoyed the finest season of his career and even outplayed the truly elite Drew Brees at times during the 49ers' playoff victory over New Orleans. The way Harbaugh backed Smith played a role in that performance, in my view.

Back to Crabtree. He has the ability to rank among the most sure-handed receivers in the game. He has not yet earned that status, but now he has little choice, right?

As the chart shows, Crabtree finished the 2011 season with 12.2 receptions per drop, which ranked 28th in the NFL among players targeted at least 100 times. Larry Fitzgerald led the NFL with 80 receptions and only one drop. Those numbers are according to ESPN Stats & Information, which defines drops as "incomplete passes where the receiver should have caught the pass with ordinary effort."

Crabtree suffered six drops last season by that standard, a few too many for the player with the best hands his head coach has ever seen on a wide receiver.
We should schedule a Michael Crabtree discussion periodically just to get the blood pumping.

Linking to Matt Maiocco's piece from our latest "Around the NFC West" post got us talking Thursday morning.

"While fans expect 1,000-yard seasons from a player chosen with the No. 10 overall draft pick," Maiocco wrote, "the 49ers' offense is not one that features the outside receivers.

"Some view Crabtree as a bust. I am certainly not in that camp."

Indeed, there are mitigating factors to explain why Crabtree's production has lagged compared to other highly drafted receivers from the 2009 NFL class. A rookie contract dispute, injuries, the 2011 lockout, coaching turnover, a run-oriented scheme and spotty quarterback play come to mind. Of course, every team has its issues. The 49ers weren't the only ones.

"I agree with Maiocco," red n g0ld wrote. "Pretty hard to judge 'Crabs' when you consider our run-heavy scheme and that Alex Smith prefers the short passing game and tight ends."

"Yep, we're not built to have any flashy numbers out of our WRs," randdles added, "which is why I think that Randy Moss isn't gonna be particularly happy, especially with the other WRs we brought in. He might not even have one catch per game."

"It hurts me to say it," 4tni9er wrote, "but I think Crabtree would have prospered more with an offense that has more emphasis on the passing game (with another QB). There is a resistance from his side to Alex Smith, but it's getting better."

"Of all the 10 people who drafted ahead of Crabtree (Aaron Curry included), only Matthew Stafford, B.J. Raji and possibly Mark Sanchez are better value," 4949centennial wrote.

"I guess one could say it isn't primarily Crabtree's fault for the type of offense they have been running," Prominent_49ers wrote. "You would think he would produce just a bit more than what he has done so far for the team."

"I think the definition of 'bust' needs to be flushed out while trying to view Crabtree," joe_cool585 wrote. "While Maiocco may not view him as a bust, Crabtree sure as heck hasn't lived up to the reasonable expectations of a top 10 draft choice."

The first chart shows where Crabtree ranks among the eight receivers chosen in the first two rounds of the 2009 draft. The chart below shows stats for all eight of those players.

Video: NFC 411 on Seahawks' Doug Baldwin

December, 22, 2011
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Doug Baldwin's 46 receptions for the Seattle Seahawks include 21 for successful conversions on third down, the third-highest total in the NFL.

I touched on that and the information in the chart below for the NFC 411 videos we produced this week. The setting is a little different for my segment this week. I remained in California following San Francisco's game Monday night and am celebrating Christmas with family here before returning for the 49ers-Seahawks game Saturday.
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2011 Gridiron Challenge: Key matchup

October, 6, 2011
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Inside the 2011 NFC West Gridiron Challenge after Week 4:
Who is your fantasy sleeper play of the week?
Five things I noticed while watching the Arizona Cardinals during their 31-27 home defeat to the New York Giants:
  • Ray Horton wasn't lying. The Cardinals' defensive coordinator promised to blitz. He sent seven pass-rushers after Eli Manning when the Cardinals were protecting a 27-24 lead with 2:46 remaining. The Giants had seven blockers in protection. That meant Arizona had four defensive backs against three receivers. Manning threw the ball within two seconds of taking the snap. Hakeem Nicks caught it at the 7-yard line. Cornerback Patrick Peterson was in coverage, but had no safety help against one of the elite receivers in the game. That was problematic. Strong safety Adrian Wilson was scrambling over but was still about 10 yards away when Nicks made the winning touchdown reception.
  • Andre Roberts was invisible. The Cardinals' No. 2 receiver finished the game with more tackles (one) than receiving targets (none). A penalty negated the only play featuring Roberts as a target. Kevin Kolb targeted three tight ends, two running backs and a fullback. He targeted receivers Larry Fitzgerald (11) and Early Doucet (six) a combined 17 times. Roberts has been targeted 15 times this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Seventy-three wideouts have been targeted more times through four games. The trend appears likely to continue as long as Fitzgerald is healthy, Doucet gets ample third-down work from the slot and multiple tight ends factor as well.
  • Campbell doesn't know his own strength. After dominating at Seattle in Week 3, defensive end Calais Campbell rocked the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw and forced him to fumble on the Cardinals' first defensive series. That play was tough to miss. Another less visible one impressed me at least as much. Campbell was rushing from the inside on second-and-7 late in the second quarter when the Giants' left guard, David Diehl, came over to help center David Baas on the play. Campbell, while still locked up with Baas, extended his right arm and decked the 6-foot-5, 304-pound Diehl with a shove to the chest area. I watched the play several times to see if someone had stepped on Diehl's foot, but that did not appear to be the case.
  • Wells' power changes the the Cardinals. Giants defensive tackle Jimmy Kennedy had his arms around Beanie Wells' legs near the Arizona 12-yard line. Jason Pierre-Paul and Greg Jones were there too. Wells somehow emerged from the pile and advanced the ball to the 20, where Michael Boley finally dragged him down. Wells is averaging 2.7 yards per carry after contact, which ranks tied for fifth in the NFL. He has gained 152 yards after contact; each of the five players with higher totals also have at least nine additional carries. Wells ran over the Giants' Corey Webster with such force at the goal line that Webster, who had gotten too low and dipped his head, flew onto his back and lost his helmet.
  • Fitzgerald showed up as a blocker. The Cardinals' receiving leader drove Giants safety Kenny Phillips to the ground to help Wells find the end zone with 10:28 left in the third quarter. The Cardinals were running from a tight formation against an 11-man box. Phillips might have made the tackle had Fitzgerald not cleared him out of the way. Fitzgerald also made a key block on Wells' 39-yard run in the fourth quarter. He threw his body into former teammate Antrel Rolle, getting the worst of the collision but getting the job done. Wells' running behind rookie fullback Anthony Sherman also caught my attention. Sherman appeared more consistent in this game than he appeared earlier in the season. He also gained 19 yards on a reception. The Wells-Sherman combination could be a very good one for Arizona if they get enough time on the field together.

I'm looking forward to seeing how Wells fares against Minnesota in Week 5. More than two years ago, Kevin Seifert and I considered whether Wells or the Vikings' Percy Harvin would be more productive as rookies. Harvin ran away with that one thanks to his special-teams production and the Vikings subsequently adding Brett Favre at quarterback. Wells has come on strong this season.

Chasing more return touchdowns in Week 2

September, 15, 2011
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There were three kickoff returns of 103 yards or longer in 256 NFL games last season.

There were two during 16 games in Week 1 this season, plus Ted Ginn Jr.'s 102-yarder for the San Francisco 49ers.

We're seeing far more touchbacks since the NFL moved kickoffs from the 30- to 35-yard line. That was predictable. The kickoffs that get returned for touchdowns will also be longer, but will there be more total return touchdowns despite far fewer return opportunities overall?

There were more of them in Week 1. Consider:
  • Twenty-three of 2,033 kickoff returns went for touchdowns last season. That is 1.1 percent.
  • Three of 80 went for touchdowns in Week 1. That is 3.3 percent.

One week does not make a trend, but the results from Week 1 were interesting. Randall Cobb, Percy Harvin and Ginn accounted for the three kickoff-return touchdowns.

The chart breaks down kickoff return stats for all but onside kicks. The touchback percentage jumped to the highest since at least the 1970 merger, according to Elias Sports Bureau.

A quick look at the returners NFC West teams are facing in Week 2:
  • Seattle at Pittsburgh: The Steelers' Antonio Brown averaged 34.3 yards on his three returns against Baltimore in Week 1, with a long return of 41 yards. The Steelers allowed one return for 37 yards. Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham has one touchback on two kickoffs.
  • St. Louis at New York Giants: The Giants' Devin Thomas had one return for 21 yards. D.J. Ware recovered another kickoff for no gain when Thomas let one get past him, nearly resulting in a Redskins recovery. Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes has one touchback on three kickoffs.
  • Arizona at Washington: The Giants' Brandon Banks had two returns for 24 yards. The Redskins allowed two returns totaling 21 yards. Redskins kicker Graham Gano has three touchbacks on five kickoffs.
  • San Francisco vs. Dallas: The Cowboys' John Phillips had one return for 16 yards. Teammate DeMarco Murray had one return for 14 yards. The Cowboys allowed four returns for 78 yards, with a long of 27 yards. Cowboys kicker David Buehler has one touchback on five kickoffs.

The NFC West has multiple dynamic returners, but the Seahawks' Leon Washington is coming off a rough week, and the Cardinals' LaRod Stephens-Howling has a hand injury. Ginn will be facing a Cowboys coverage team that allowed 19.5 yards per kick return on four returns to the New York Jets.
ESPN's Mel Kiper singled out the Arizona Cardinals for praise while raising questions about the Seattle Seahawks in the first round of the 2011 draft.

His full Insider piece spans more than 1,400 words and touches on multiple teams. I've broken out a couple snippets from his comments on NFC West teams for further analysis.

Peterson
Peterson
Kiper specifically addressed the Cardinals' selection of LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson and the Seahawks' selection of Alabama tackle James Carpenter.

Kiper's give: "In Peterson you have a gifted football player who makes you better immediately, and have made yourself an appealing destination for a quarterback who wants to move."

Sando's take: Can a rookie cornerback change perceptions about whether a team is ready to contend? If Peterson can do that for Arizona, which finished 5-11 last season, he's even more special than the scouting reports suggest. It could happen if Peterson instantly becomes the sort of dynamic return specialist Percy Harvin became for Minnesota a couple years ago. The Cardinals did emphasize Peterson's return skills in explaining why the LSU corner was so appealing to them at No. 5. I tend to think a quarterback on another team would value an offensive player over a cornerback and specialist, although there's no arguing with the Cardinals' decision on Peterson. It was the obvious choice based on what was known.

Kiper's give: "The Seahawks are clearly determined to add talent and build continuity. But Carpenter is a guy they could have gotten later, in my opinion. Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod are still on the board, and either could shift to the right side."

Sando's take: Seattle probably could have gotten Carpenter later. The Seahawks would have lost out on Carimi, Sherrod and possibly Carpenter had they traded out of the first round entirely, however. They considered a couple trade options, but nothing came together. Carimi went 29th to Chicago. Sherrod went 31st to Green Bay. There were conflicting reports on Carpenter. Analysts Mike Mayock and Nolan Nawrocki used the term "finesse" in describing him. Seahawks line coach Tom Cable flatly rejected the characterization. The Seahawks' leadership cast Carpenter as a nasty road grader with the versatility to play four positions on the line. The confusion could stem from the fact that Carpenter was a junior-college transfer who added weight and appeared more physical relatively late in the process, at the Senior Bowl.

Michael Crabtree and the 2009 receivers

February, 18, 2011
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NFL teams selected 34 wide receivers in the 2009 draft.

Of those 34 players, the San Francisco 49ers' Michael Crabtree finished the 2010 regular season ranked seventh in receptions, eighth in yards and sixth in touchdowns.

The 49ers had reason to expect better from Crabtree, the 10th overall choice and second receiver taken in his draft class. Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. hits on some of the keys for Crabtree heading into the receiver's third season. He sees vast potential for Crabtree in the red zone specifically.

I've put together a couple charts for perspective.

The first chart shows 2010 production for the wide receivers NFL teams selected in the 2009 draft (minimum nine receptions). Note that the St. Louis Rams' Brandon Gibson entered the NFL with Philadelphia.

The second chart shows average 2010 stats by draft round for all wide receivers selected in 2009, minus the Denver Broncos' Kenny McKinley, who passed away in September.

Around the NFC West: Cards' heartbreak

November, 8, 2010
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Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says the Cardinals couldn't hang with Brett Favre when the game was on the line Sunday. Strong safety Adrian Wilson described a "money" pass from Favre to tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. Said nose tackle Bryan Robinson: "You can actually hear that ball just whistling by when he throws. They stuck in there. The finished the game, and we didn't." Favre set a career high with 446 yards passing. He has also had a six-touchdown game against Arizona, in 2008. The Cardinals have lost three in a row for the first time since the 2007 season. They've blown the past two games. Derek Anderson's turnover-free performance stands as one positive for Arizona from this game. The Cardinals aren't going to face Favre every week, after all.

Also from Somers: postgame notes and thoughts, including one about how the Cardinals have eight touchdowns on returns and 11 by conventional means.

Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic says the Cardinals' lose-from-ahead defeat in Minnesota stung. Larry Fitzgerald says the team's Super Bowl defeat ranks atop the list. Fitzgerald: "But this is right up there. We had them down, man. We had them."

Also from Bickley: That pass to Shiancoe was the play of the game.

Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic thinks the Cardinals should pursue Donovan McNabb during the offseason. McNabb is a declining older player unable to keep a job. Wait, that was Kurt Warner.

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com offers postgame Cardinals notes, including these regarding younger players: "Safety Rashad Johnson got his first career interception, but he was in no mood to talk about it after the way the game ended. O’Brien Schofield not only got his first work at linebacker but stripped Percy Harvin on the kickoff that Michael Adams returned for a touchdown. Andre Roberts got his first NFL touchdown on a nifty 30-yard catch-and-run at the end of the first half (pictured below). His troubles seem to be fading into the background. Let’s hope so."

Also from Urban: Ken Whisenhunt took a glass-half-full approach to the defeat. Urban: "Whisenhunt praised his team’s effort and didn’t sound like a coach who was interested in chastising his players for falling short. Building on what the Cards did positively is the only option."

More from Urban: Joey Porter suddenly has five sacks on the season after collecting two more Sunday. Porter: "Earlier in the week I don’t get no interviews, I get a couple sacks and you all surround me like I did something amazing. You all are the same people that told me three weeks ago I didn’t have it no more. So I get two sacks and I have 10 people waiting for me. I ain’t got nothing to prove to you all. I will be there where I need to be. Someone starts off slow and don’t have any sacks you think I should have, I don’t get no interviews. I get two sacks and you all want to be in front of me. I find that funny." Production does tend to make players relevant.

More yet from Urban: The Vikings sacked Anderson six times overall, including four times beginning with the Cardinals' final possession of regulation.
Beanie Wells' swollen knee and Percy Harvin's tender ankle are threatening to postpone the Wells-or-Harvin debate that began here when both were rookies.

I took up Wells' cause, figuring his style would fit perfectly as the Arizona Cardinals became more of a running team. Kevin Seifert of the NFC North blog pushed Harvin even before Minnesota acquired Brett Favre, figuring the Vikings would give the receiver plenty of chances as a return specialist.

Wells and Harvin put up nearly identical offensive yardage numbers last season: 793 rushing for Wells, 790 receiving for Harvin. But Harvin's production as a return specialist gave him a decisive edge, just as Seifert had predicted.

Injuries could affect both players when the Cardinals and Vikings play Sunday for the second time since using 2009 first-round choices on Wells and Harvin. Wells missed the first two games this season following knee surgery. An allergic reaction caused swelling in the knee this week, calling into question Wells' availability. Harvin has started all seven Vikings games to this point, but an ankle has sidelined him this week.

Wells has 69 carries for 233 yards and two touchdowns this season. Harvin has 31 receptions for 393 yards and three scores. Harvin also has a 26.0-yard average on kickoff returns, with a 95-yard touchdown.

Their career arcs have followed relatively predictable patterns. Wells' durability was a question mark coming out of Ohio State. He suffered an ankle injury in his first training camp practice as a rookie, setting back his development last season. The knee injury he suffered during the 2010 exhibition season is still affecting him. Harvin has flashed more star power and has missed only one game despite suffering some of the medical troubles that bothered him during college, including bouts with migraines.

The Vikings have done a better job utilizing Harvin's talents to this point. The knee issues Wells has suffered from this season have made it tougher for the Cardinals to lean on him as heavily. The team has also fallen behind enough to diminish the viability of the running game.

I still would have expected Arizona to become more of a power team by design, however. The Cardinals have used three- and four-receiver personnel groups more than I would have expected, particularly with injuries affecting their receivers at various points. Wells has often been at his best running with two tight ends on the field.

Five things I've noticed about the Seattle Seahawks during the nearly completed first quarter of their exhibition game at Minnesota on Saturday night:
  • Lawyer Milloy is still the toughest player on this defense. He was extremely active early in this game. Milloy blitzed. He shed a block from Vikings receiver Bernard Berrian, taking down Percy Harvin near the line of scrimmage. Then, on fourth-and-goal, Milloy knifed into the backfield and shocked Vikings guard Steve Hutchinson, who was pulling to his left. Milloy squared up on Hutchinson, caught him just right and put him on his back.
  • Matt Hasselbeck's comfort level with T.J. Houshmandzadeh remains apparent. Hasselbeck throws decisively to him. That is not the case when Hasselbeck looks for Mike Williams. Hasselbeck threw away the ball on one third-down play when he and Williams appeared to be on separate pages. Trust is important for Hasselbeck. Brett Favre, meanwhile, seemed to have no qualms throwing to newly signed Vikings receiver Greg Camarillo. Update: Hassebeck and Williams connected later in this game. Good sign for Seattle.
  • Seattle linebacker Aaron Curry is still finding his way. He appears strong when engaging blockers, but made little impact early -- other than getting caught jumping offside. I didn't notice him much as a pass-rusher early. Update: Curry broke up a pass late in the second quarter. Nearly had a pick. And he got some pressure on Favre shortly thereafter.
  • Pass-rusher Chris Clemons is looking good again. Vikings right tackle Phil Loadholt got away with holding Clemons on the Vikings' first play. Clemons beat left tackle Bryant McKinnie inside for a sack and forced a fumble later. Favre appeared to hurt his hand on the play and his ball security suffered. Clemons was also active in coverage. Officials probably could have flagged him for a late hit after one incomplete pass. Clemons also brought down Adrian Peterson near the line of scrimmage.
  • Having Lofa Tatupu back at middle linebacker helps the defense in obvious ways. Tatupu's feel for the game was evident as he sat on a pass route and nearly picked off a pass. Tatupu had a fumble-forcing sack on Favre negated by an illegal-contact penalty downfield.

The Seahawks have to be happy, in general, with how they have started this game. They are tied 7-7 in the second quarter. This could have been the Favre show early, but the Seahawks have made a few key plays on defense -- a goal-line stand, the fumble-forcing sack and the interception return for a score -- to offset some breakdowns (including Peterson's touchdown run following a long kickoff return).

Looking for Seahawks' Golden Tate

August, 24, 2010
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Rookie receiver Golden Tate has stood out as one of the stars at Seattle Seahawks camp. He's made more spectacular grabs than any other receiver, by most accounts, but his stats through two exhibition games barely register: three catches for 13 yards.

Nine other Seattle players have more yards receiving to this point. What's the deal? One, the Seahawks are bringing along Tate a little more slowly than his camp production might indicate. They realize he's rough around the edges when it comes to route running and the finer points. It's also common for rookie receivers to flash during practice, but not so much in games, at least right away.

I asked quarterback Matt Hasselbeck about Tate's preseason production and he flashed back to his days as a rookie with Green Bay. Hasselbeck thought he'd played well during minicamps and training camp, but it didn't translate to his preseason debut in a game for the Packers in Japan.

"They might as well have been calling the plays in Japanese," Hasselbeck said. "It was like I lost my mind. Andy Reid called me in after the game and said, 'You embarrassed me. What was that?' I said I’m sorry. So, I feel for those guys. I've been there. It’s not easy."

Tate has looked too good during practices to disappear entirely. But it's also unrealistic to expect great things from rookie receivers. Michael Crabtree was an exception for the San Francisco 49ers last season -- a rookie wideout with the polish of a seasoned pro.

"He’s shown a lot of ability and in some things he’s just been really, really amazing, and in other things he’s a rookie," Hasselbeck said. "I’m sure he’s used to doing things a certain way. He's on a new team now, a new program; they’re probably working with him on technique things, and they're probably working with him on assignments and splits and all kinds of stuff. It's a lot."

ST. LOUIS -- The team with Sam Bradford and the team without Brett Favre are warming up here in the Edward Jones Dome.

Warming up isn't necessary outside, where temperatures have hit triple digits. The temperature gauge on my rental car showed the motor was already warm at startup.

The St. Louis Rams have continued with two-a-day practices anyway, some with live tackling. The team has been more apt to move practices inside to avoid lightning than to avoid heat during a particularly hot St. Louis summer. I thought the Rams held the most physical camp in the NFC West last summer despite perceptions about the San Francisco 49ers under Mike Singletary. Sounds like the Rams are holding to form this summer, too.

This just in: The Rams' list of players not in uniform includes kicker Josh Brown, receiver Brandon Gibson, cornerback Justin King, cornerback Bradley Fletcher, guard Jacob Bell, guard John Greco, defensive end Eugene Sims, running back Steven Jackson, safety James Butler defensive end James Hall and defensive end C.J. Ah You. The Minnesota Vikings' list features Favre, receiver Percy Harvin, receiver Sidney Rice, cornerback Cedric Griffin, linebacker J Leman, cornerback John Sullivan and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.

The Rams' Roger Allen is starting for Bell at right guard. The Vikings' Greg Lewis is starting for Harvin. Lito Sheppard replaces Asher Allen at right cornerback.Jimmy Kleinsasser starts instead of Shiancoe. Jon Cooper starts in place of Sullivan at center.

Much fantasy love for Gore, 49ers

July, 20, 2010
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ESPN fantasy guru Matthew Berry is all over Frank Gore specifically and the 2010 San Francisco 49ers in general.

"Gore, (Michael) Crabtree, (Vernon) Davis, Josh Morgan and (Alex) Smith are all on my love list this year," Berry proclaims. "I think Davis might regress a little bit, but he'll still be an elite tight end."

Berry ranks Gore fourth overall among all NFL fantasy prospects. He likes the other San Francisco players largely in relation to where he thinks others will value them in fantasy drafts. Berry likes the Seattle Seahawks' Justin Forsett in the later rounds, but he doesn't like the team in general from a fantasy standpoint because too much remains unknown.

One thing I'm not sure about regarding the 49ers is to what degree Crabtree will get into the touchdown mix. Gore and Davis were the primary scorers for San Francisco last season. Crabtree scored only two receiving touchdowns. That number should climb, but by how much?

I'll be organizing a fantasy league on the blog again this season. It'll likely be a Gridiron Challenge league again. We'll have a hard salary cap and the ability to change rosters from week to week, with players' prices changing based on how they perform.

Back to Gore. He was a solid producer last season in terms of final numbers, but his week-to-week production was sporadic. The chart shows the top 30 touchdown scorers in the NFL -- make that the NFC -- last season. Three of the top four were in the mighty NFC West.

Give me your 2010 POY candidates

May, 24, 2010
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Nobody in the NFC West outplayed Steven Jackson last season, even though the Pro Bowl running back suffered through a 1-15 season for the St. Louis Rams.

The way Jackson ran during the final minutes of a 35-0 defeat at San Francisco -- violently, defiantly -- ranked among the more admirable individual efforts of the season.

Football is ultimately a team sport, but playing for a bad team can add impact to the performance of a great individual. Other times, it's the way an individual leads his team to victory that earns our acclaim.

Taking a cue from NFC North maestro Kevin Seifert, let's tackle a direct question: Who will be the NFC West's best player in 2010?

The big names in this division are well-established. Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Adrian Wilson, Patrick Willis, Vernon Davis and Darnell Dockett were named to the Pro Bowl last season. Frank Gore and Justin Smith were named as injury replacements. Alan Faneca, now with Arizona, represented the Jets on the AFC squad.

[+] Enlarge
Wells
Icon SMIBeanie Wells rushed for 793 yards and seven touchdowns last season.
I'll jump-start the conversation by listing five sleeper candidates (guys who have not been to a Pro Bowl recently, if at all):
1. Beanie Wells, Cardinals RB. Listing Wells in this spot guarantees I'll receive a mocking e-mail from Seifert stemming from our 2009 debate about whether Wells or the Vikings' Percy Harvin would prevail as rookie of the year. It's still not clear how many carries Wells will share with Tim Hightower, but multiple important factors point to a big year from Wells. The Cardinals should become less pass-happy without Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. Their personnel almost assures more prominence for the ground game. Wells had 176 carries for 793 yards and seven touchdowns last season. Give him 300 carries and the other categories project to 1,351 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Arizona drafted Wells in the first round. Time to give him the ball.

2. Alex Smith, 49ers QB. Expect Smith to be much more comfortable now that he has a firmer grasp on the offensive system the 49ers installed before last season. A more comfortable quarterback tends to be a more productive one. The 49ers have promising weapons on offense. Smith has much to prove and he's finally in position to take the next step. It doesn't mean he'll succeed, but he's the perfect sleeper candidate now that Warner's retirement has removed the most productive passer from the equation.

3. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks QB. Two down seasons have made it easy to argue that Hasselbeck is pretty much finished at age 34. Take a closer look, though, and reasons for the decline are open for interpretation. Age has ranked well down the list of problems for Hasselbeck. The back injury that wrecked his 2008 season wasn't a problem in 2009. The damaged ribs Hasselbeck suffered at San Francisco in Week 2 last season affected his performance, but Hasselbeck had seven touchdown passes and two interceptions heading into a Week 6 game against Arizona. Everything fell apart for Hasselbeck that week when Seattle realized the difference between third-string left tackle Brandon Frye and fourth-stringer Kyle Williams. Give Hasselbeck a better line and he'll have a chance. This is also a contract year for Hasselbeck and the Seahawks brought in Charlie Whitehurst as competition.

4. Michael Crabtree, 49ers WR. Crabtree's performance after missing training camp and the first five games showed he has vast potential. It's early to consider him among the elite players in the division, but he outperformed expectations as a rookie (under the circumstances). Smith is commanding most of the attention at 49ers practices this offseason and that will continue because he's the key variable and most compelling figure. Crabtree could sneak up on people.

5. Matt Leinart, Cardinals QB. The Leinart haters will have a field day with his inclusion on this list. Some probably will miss the point that this is a sleeper list. They'll accuse me of listing Leinart fifth overall, ignoring the sleeper factor. The truth is that I had a hard time coming up with a fifth true sleeper candidate and I wasn't quite ready to list Seattle's Mike Williams. It's a little early to know whether the first-round bust will stay in shape, earn a roster spot and become more than just an offseason curiosity.

OK, my turn's up. Let's get this conversation started already. And if you see a sleeper defensive player worth including on the list, please do share. Joey Porter? Chris Long? Aaron Curry? I'm not seeing it.
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