NFC West: Percy Harvin

Cornerback Javier Arenas is the player Arizona will receive in return from Kansas City for fullback Anthony Sherman, the Arizona Republic's Kent Somers reports.

This move makes sense on the surface.

Sherman did not fit the Cardinals' new offense, which does not utilize a traditional fullback. Arenas, a 2010 second-round choice by the Chiefs' previous leadership, projects as a slot cornerback in a division that has added slot receivers Percy Harvin and Tavon Austin.

"Size hurts him, but Arenas is feisty and a big-time asset on special teams," said Matt Williamson, who scouts the NFL for ESPN.com.

The Chiefs signed veteran corner Dunta Robinson before using a fifth-round choice for cornerback Sanders Commings. They added cornerback Sean Smith in free agency. They already had Brandon Flowers. Arenas was apparently the odd corner out.

The Cardinals plan for 2013 third-round choice Tyrann Mathieu to play weak safety and slot cornerback, but Arenas would come to Arizona with game experience. Mathieu and Arenas are both 5-foot-9. Arenas is listed at 197 pounds. Mathieu is listed at 186. There is overlap between the players. Arenas could also provide some insurance for Mathieu, whose off-field issues have made him a higher-risk player in the Cardinals' eyes.

Arenas started nine games last season and played 693 snaps on defense, the third-highest total among Chiefs defensive backs behind Eric Berry (967) and Flowers (840).
Christine Michael and Marshawn LynchGetty ImagesChristine Michael, left, gives the Seahawks additional running back depth behind Marshawn Lynch.
Jump ahead to 2015 and put yourself in John Schneider's seat as the Seattle Seahawks' general manager.

By then, you will have re-signed or lost elite players such as safety Earl Thomas and cornerback Richard Sherman.

Your quarterback, Russell Wilson, will be entering the final year of his rookie contract. Wilson will be eligible to sign a new one for the first time under the NFL's labor rules.

The same goes for Bobby Wagner, your starting middle linebacker, and Bruce Irvin, your highly drafted pass-rusher. All will cost much more than they're costing right now.

Your Pro Bowl left tackle, Russell Okung, will also be entering a contract year.

One receiver, Percy Harvin, will have a contract counting $12.9 million against the salary cap. Another, Sidney Rice, will have a deal counting $10.2 million.

Oh, and one other thing about this 2015 adventure: You'll have to decide whether to pay a $2 million roster bonus and $5.5 million salary for a running back entering his ninth season.

Marshawn Lynch is that running back, and right now, in 2013, he's about as good as they come, this side of Adrian Peterson. But you'll need younger, more economical alternatives for some of your best players down the line. These aren't the sort of immediate needs that show up in draft previews, but they're always lurking.

Now, thanks to one of the more surprising moves in the 2013 draft, the Seahawks have bought insurance for their future at the position most vulnerable to age.

Christine Michael, the Texas A&M running back Seattle unexpectedly selected 62nd overall Friday, must by rule sign a four-year contract through 2016. His deal will run past the contracts that Lynch and backup running back Robert Turbin signed last offseason. It will count far less against the cap than the $9 million Lynch's deal is scheduled to count in 2015.

Seattle probably did not draft Michael with the distant future in the front of its mind. One explanation trumps all others when determining why the Seahawks used a second-round draft choice for a running back with two perfectly good ones on the roster already. The team thinks Michael can be special.

"He was the highest-rated player on our board and we lost Leon Washington, so we were looking for a little bit of depth there, and he is just our kind of runner," Schneider said. "He's a tough, intense, up-field, one-cut guy, and he's just a very good football player, competitor."

Adding Michael does not imperil Lynch for the 2013 season, of course. It does provoke natural tendencies to wonder whether there's more to this story.

"I could be far-fetched here," Kevin from McKinney, Texas, wrote to the NFC West mailbag, illustrating how far the mind can wander, "but is it possible John Schneider and [coach] Pete Carroll are concerned with Lynch's future effectiveness due to the new lowering of the crown rule? It seems to me that is a big part of his game and significantly contributes to his yards after contact."

There is no way the rulebook pressured Seattle into drafting a running back.

Carroll and other coaches fear officials will struggle enforcing the new rule preventing runners from lowering their heads and delivering an aggressive blow to the opponent with the top of the helmet. The rule could affect Lynch, but league officials said they discovered only a few would-be violations per week when studying tape from last season.

The Seahawks selected Michael because they thought he was the best back in the draft and well-suited to their offense. They wanted additional depth for their running game, which will remain the focus of their offense. They have to realize that Lynch's back spasms, while manageable to this point, could become more problematic with additional wear and tear. And they surely realize that Lynch's occasional off-field troubles dating to his time with the Buffalo Bills could recur, inviting sanctions.

Adding Michael doesn't mean the team thinks less of Lynch or Turbin, a 2012 fourth-round choice. There are no indications the team is anticipating a Lynch suspension in relation to his DUI arrest last offseason.

Still, I would bet against Lynch playing out the final year of his deal when Michael and Turbin figure to be available at a significant discount.

Seattle was fortunate in 2010 to have a running back of Lynch's caliber and young age (then 24) become available by trade at reasonable cost. The team was wise to re-sign Lynch one year ago to a four-year deal featuring $17 million in guaranteed money.

This marriage should be good for both parties for the next couple of seasons.

Lynch's deal pays him $7 million in salary with an $8.5 million salary-cap charge in 2013. It carries a $5 million salary and $7 million cap number in 2014. The team will have a decision to make at that point because Lynch's deal includes a $5.5 million salary and a $2 million roster bonus with a $9 million cap figure for 2015, the contract's final year.

Michael, a luxury buy at present, should be much more than that by then.
Our post-draft amendments to pre-draft positional rankings continue with Matt Williamson, NFL scout for ESPN.com.

Up next: wide receivers.

NFC West teams drafted five of them: Tavon Austin (eighth overall pick) and Stedman Bailey (92nd) to the St. Louis Rams, Chris Harper (123rd) to the Seattle Seahawks, Quinton Patton (128th) to the San Francisco 49ers and Ryan Swope to the Arizona Cardinals (174th).

We pick up the conversation there.

Sando: Matt, you had Arizona first last time, followed by Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis. What has changed?

Williamson: I have to keep the order the same for now, but it's harder now. Swope would have been a much higher pick without the concussion problems. His timing for being eligible is terrible, but I keep Arizona No. 1 for sure. Nobody got better enough to take the top spot. Michael Floyd is a really good player. Larry Fitzgerald is a stud. Andre Roberts, you could do way worse than him for a No. 3 and Swope might even challenge him.

Sando: Swope ran 40 yards in the 4.3-second range at the NFL scouting combine. He is 6 feet tall and about 200 pounds. The speed he brings gives the Cardinals something they didn't really have previously. That is something I like about the way NFC West teams drafted wide receivers. Harper gave Seattle a 230-pound presence. Austin gave St. Louis arguably the most electric player in college football last season.

Williamson: The Rams might be going back to their Greatest Show on Turf days. They got so much faster over the weekend. They are a dome team. That is interesting in two regards. The team has had success in the past being fast and multiple on both sides of the ball. Remember, Alec Ogletree is fast, too. But they compete against the two most physical teams in the whole league. Is that the approach to take as the third-best team in the division? Seattle and San Francisco are bangers. You are fighting Tyson here. But the receiver moves were very Sam Bradford friendly.

Sando: One worst-case scenario from a Rams standpoint during the draft was that the team might stay in the 16th overall slot, miss out on Austin and draft a receiver just to draft a receiver. The fact that they moved up to get Austin, then recouped picks in the move back with their second first-round choice gave them the best of both worlds, to a degree.

Williamson: They can use Austin in a lot of ways. Bailey is very NFL ready and they got him with one of the picks they received in the trade with the Atlanta Falcons. They did well.

Sando: Receiver is one of those positions in the division where the gap between No. 1 and No. 4 isn't nearly as much as it was a while back.

Williamson: Yeah, I'll keep the Rams No. 4 for now. They don't have a Percy Harvin or a Larry Fitzgerald. They might not even have a Michael Crabtree in that group yet, and maybe Anquan Boldin would be the best receiver in St. Louis right now. But we will revisit this one.

Sando: No question. The Rams are so different. As we discussed on the blog earlier, they are replacing 46.9 percent of their offensive snaps from last season. And that assumes every returning offensive player still with the team remains on the team.

Williamson: The line is better. They have weapons. This really could be Bradford's make-or-break year.

NFL Power Rankings: How they voted

April, 30, 2013
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Teams have added 254 players in the draft since ESPN's NFL Power Rankings last appeared six weeks ago. We've seen Carson Palmer join the Arizona Cardinals and Darrelle Revis join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, among other changes involving veteran players.

Our voters mostly shrugged when asked to update their ballots.

No team moved more than three spots higher (Cardinals) or three spots lower (Cleveland Browns) in the rankings when John Clayton, Dan Graziano, Jamison Hensley and Ashley Fox joined me in casting ballots.

Teams made larger moves up and down individual ballots.

Clayton and I moved up the Cardinals at least seven spots to reflect the change from Ryan Lindley and John Skelton to Palmer, plus continued improvements to the offensive line. The Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets fell several spots on some ballots.

Overall, however, there wasn't a great deal of movement. We did have our disagreements. None stood out more to me than a couple involving Graziano, our blogging brother from the NFC East. He had the Saints significantly lower and the Vikings significantly higher than our other voters ranked those teams.

Dan isn't exactly buying playoff tickets in New Orleans simply because Sean Payton is returning to the Saints' sideline.

"The Saints gave up the most yards in league history in 2012," he explained. "I just think it's a much longer way back for that defense than people give it credit for. Not sure how Payton's return turns them from one of the worst defenses in the history of the sport into a playoff-caliber one in one offseason."

Fair enough. But what about that No. 8 ranking for the Christian Ponder-led Vikings? Everyone else ranked them 17th.

"I don't understand the rush to drop a 2012 playoff team that replaced Percy Harvin with Greg Jennings and just crushed the draft," Graziano said. "Why won't they be good again?"

Harvin would be the more dynamic receiver of the two, in my view. The Vikings arguably gave up too much for the 29th pick in the draft, acquired from New England. And it's debatable, at least in my mind, whether Adrian Peterson can carry the team every week the way he did down the stretch last season.

All things to discuss as the offseason continues. First, we take a closer look at the rankings with May fast approaching:

Falling (10): Cleveland Browns (-3), Buffalo Bills (-2), Chicago Bears (-2), Dallas Cowboys (-2), Detroit Lions (-2), New Orleans Saints (-2), Carolina Panthers (-1), Indianapolis Colts (-1), New England Patriots (-1), New York Jets (-1).

Rising (11): Arizona Cardinals (+3), Kansas City Chiefs (+2), New York Giants (+2), Tampa Bay Bucs (+2), Washington Redskins (+2), Cincinnati Bengals (+1), Green Bay Packers (+1), Jacksonville Jaguars (+1), Miami Dolphins (+1), Oakland Raiders (+1), Philadelphia Eagles (+1).

Unchanged (11): Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Tennessee Titans.

Deadlocked: We broke one tie. The Bears prevailed over the Saints at No. 13 based on previous ranking.

Like minds: One spot separated the highest and lowest votes for the Texans. Two votes separated highest and lowest votes for the Seahawks, 49ers, Packers, Patriots, Titans, Browns and Jets.

Agree to disagree: Ten spots separated highest and lowest votes for the Saints, the largest gap for any team. At least seven spots separated highest and lowest votes for five other teams. A look at the teams generating the largest high-low disparities:
  • Saints (10): Fox ranked the Saints 10th, higher than any other voter ranked them. Graziano ranked them 20th, lower than any other voter ranked them.
  • Cardinals (9): Sando and Clayton 20th, Fox 29th.
  • Vikings (9): Graziano eighth, every other voter 17th.
  • Steelers (8): Clayton 10th, Fox 18th.
  • Panthers (7): Hensley 18th, Clayton 25th.
  • Cowboys 7: Graziano 17th, Hensley 24th.
Power Rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: The NFC West remained the highest-ranked division with an 11.0 average ranking for its teams, up from 12.3 last time. Teams from the NFC North were second at 14.2, followed by the NFC South (14.6), AFC North (15.3), NFC East (17.8), AFC South (18.7), AFC West (19.4) and AFC East (21.3).

A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last season:
  • Sando: Panthers (-6), Cowboys (-6), Browns (-6), Cardinals (+8).
  • Clayton: Browns (-6), Cowboys (-6), Chiefs (+5), Cardinals (+7).
  • Graziano: Bills (-9), Panthers (-6), Jets (-6), Eagles (+6), Chiefs (+8).
  • Hensley: Vikings (+5), Ravens (+6).
  • Fox: Jets (-5).
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NFC West draft analysis

April, 27, 2013
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» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The NFC West has been gaining on the two-time defending division champion San Francisco 49ers.

The Seattle Seahawks nearly caught the 49ers in the division race last season before adding Percy Harvin. The St. Louis Rams more than tripled their victory total from 2011 while going 1-0-1 against San Francisco. The Arizona Cardinals will almost certainly get better after acquiring quarterback Carson Palmer.

The 49ers, with arguably the NFL's strongest roster and best coaching staff, had nowhere to go but down. How general manager Trent Baalke used the 49ers' NFL-high 13 draft choices was going to be critical for the 49ers to maintain their standing atop the NFC West.

"Trent Baalke has to be on his 'A' game," coach Jim Harbaugh had said. "This could make you. You could be the next Bill Polian, the next Ozzie Newsome. It all hinges on this draft. So, it's exciting."

So, how did Baalke do? With all those picks and relatively few openings in the lineup, Baalke needed to be aggressive. He needed to move up for specific players when appropriate and parlay picks into 2014 capital.

Baalke did those things. He moved up 13 spots to select LSU safety Eric Reid with the 18th overall pick. There's more than one way to judge whether the 49ers fared well in getting the 18th pick from Dallas for the 31st and 74th selections. A rival executive told me he thought the 49ers got a great deal. In 1995, Jacksonville packaged the 31st, 97th and 134th picks with a future fourth-rounder to acquire No. 19 -- a higher price.

The 49ers had the capital to move around the board and target needs. San Francisco addressed its top three needs with its top three picks, landing a safety (Reid), defensive lineman (Tank Carradine) and tight end (Vance McDonald). Baalke acquired a 2014 third-rounder from Tennessee as well.

So, the 49ers got what they wanted now while planning for the future with that 2014 pick and Marcus Lattimore, the running back they hope can contribute in 2014. Carradine could be needed to take over for Justin Smith in another year. The 49ers added receiver Quinton Patton in the fourth round -- no big deal, perhaps, but with a decision on Michael Crabtree's contract looming, insurance at that position made sense longer term as well.

BEST MOVE

There were a few worthy candidates. A double move the St. Louis Rams pulled off in the first round stands out. We cannot say with any certainty whether the players St. Louis or any team selected will become outstanding ones, but we can evaluate the process, at least. The Rams had more at stake in the first round than any team in the NFC West. Their thinking and execution through that portion of the draft appeared sound.

Moving up eight spots to select wide receiver Tavon Austin delivered to St. Louis the skill player that evaluators were most excited about in this draft. The cost was high, however, and the Rams had lots of needs. Their move to recoup picks by trading back eight spots to No. 30 with their other first-round selection gave them the best of both worlds.

The Rams entered this draft with eight total picks and what seemed to be primary needs at safety, receiver, guard and outside linebacker. They needed depth at corner, too.

Sending the 16th, 46th, 78th and 222nd picks to the Buffalo Bills for the eighth and 71st picks left the Rams with just six selections in the draft. That wasn't going to be enough for coach Jeff Fisher and general manager Les Snead to build sufficient depth. But with Snead having come to the Rams from Atlanta, the second-year GM put to use his relationship with Falcons counterpart Thomas Dimitroff, restoring needed picks to St. Louis.

The Rams then sent the 22nd overall choice and a 2015 seventh-rounder to the Falcons for the 30th, 92nd and 198th choices. That left St. Louis with its original pick count, eight, and the same number of first-rounders. Note that the picks St. Louis wound up using in the first round -- Nos. 8 and 30 -- averaged out to the picks the Rams held originally (16 and 22).

The Rams emerged from the first round with the first skill-position player selected and the first 4-3 outside linebacker selected.

RISKIEST MOVE

[+] Enlarge
Tyrann Mathieu
AP Photo/Michael ConroyWith strong locker room leaders, Arizona GM Steve Keim said he feels confident in drafting defensive back Tyrann Mathieu.
Risk can be good sometimes, and I'd say the Arizona Cardinals made a calculated one by using their third-round choice for Tyrann Mathieu, the LSU defensive back Bill Polian had called a "poor teammate and a poor risk" during ESPN's draft coverage. Polian, a six-time NFL executive of the year, made those comments before the Cardinals selected Mathieu (Polian and Cardinals coach Bruce Arians worked together in Indianapolis years ago).

Mathieu, nicknamed "Honey Badger" for his aggressive coverage tactics, had been kicked off the team at LSU for violating substance-abuse rules. He had admitted to having a problem eliminating marijuana use from his life. A strong endorsement from Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson helped Arizona feel better about selecting Mathieu. The two starred together at LSU and are looking forward to reuniting.

"We will probably start him at weak safety and then with our defense, with the way it’s structured, he can slide into the slot as a free safety -- basically playing with three corners, but one of them is also a safety," Arians said. "He gives that flexibility where we wouldn’t have to substitute."

Mathieu said he'll submit to regular testing, counseling or anything else the Cardinals might have in mind. He sounded sincere.

Meanwhile, general manager Steve Keim pointed to strong leadership in the Cardinals' locker room as another reason the team might be able to keep Mathieu on the right side of the NFL's policies. Keim singled out Darnell Dockett, Calais Campbell and Daryl Washington as players "you feel can help keep some structure in place."

Those players might indeed serve as fine leaders. However, the Cardinals did reportedly levy a six-figure fine against Dockett for insubordination last season. Washington is scheduled to serve a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy.

"We made two selections, our first two selections, with guys that have impeccable character," Keim said of Jonathan Cooper and Kevin Minter. "You don't want to build your locker room of 53 players with risk.

"If you feel like you have a strong core of solid veteran leaders -- guys like Dockett, Calais Campbell, Daryl Washington -- who you feel can help keep some structure in place, I think that you have a chance to occasionally take a risk. That's if you have that instinct or that gut feeling that this player is committed to making a change."

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

The Seattle Seahawks used the last choice of the second round to select running back Christine Michael even though the depth chart was stacked with Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, both of whom are signed for the long term.

The Seahawks did not have glaring needs entering this draft. They had flexibility to make a move such as this one. They also had an opening at running back after releasing Leon Washington. Unlike Washington, however, Michael doesn't factor as an explosive kickoff returner. He doesn't qualify as a change-of-pace back. He would seem to give the Seahawks more of the power running they already have in abundance.

The most surprising move in the division could still be a good one. As coach Pete Carroll pointed out, the team used a third-round choice for quarterback Russell Wilson last year shortly after signing Matt Flynn to a three-year, $19.5 million deal. The team found a starting quarterback when no one thought it needed one.

FILE IT AWAY

The landscape at running back continues to change in the NFC West. Every team in the division selected at least one in this draft.

The clock ticks loudly for older backs in the NFL.

Steven Jackson was one established back to depart the NFC West this offseason, leaving the Rams in free agency after eight consecutive 1,000-yard seasons for the team.

St. Louis traded into the fifth round to select Vanderbilt's Zac Stacy, a power back standing 5-foot-8 and weighing 216 pounds. Stacy will join Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson in the committee setup Jackson resisted.

Frank Gore's time with the San Francisco 49ers is not yet up. He remains effective and hasn't shown obvious signs of slowing. He's one of the most productive and respected players on the team. He also turns 30 next month, a bad number for running backs.

The 49ers used a 2011 fourth-round pick for Kendall Hunter and a 2012 second-rounder for LaMichael James before using a 2013 fourth-rounder for South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore. The team is preparing for life without Gore.

The Cardinals already released 2009 first-round pick Beanie Wells. They signed Rashard Mendenhall before drafting Stanford career rushing leader Stepfan Taylor in the fifth round and another back, Andre Ellington of Clemson, in the sixth.

Michael's addition in Seattle wouldn't appear to change much over the next year or two. I wonder what it says, if anything, about the team's faith in Lynch holding up through the remainder of his contract, which runs through 2015.

Seattle added another running back, Spencer Ware of LSU, late in the sixth round.
Percy Harvin and Tavon AustinGetty ImagesSeeing Tavon Austin (right) go the the Rams at No. 8 validated Seattle's trade for Percy Harvin.

RENTON, Wash. -- The more the Seattle Seahawks watched game tape on Tavon Austin, the more they realized the West Virginia receiver would not last long in the 2013 NFL draft.

Back in mid-March, the Seahawks could not know Austin would land with the NFC West-rival St. Louis Rams. They had recently traded the 25th overall choice to the Minnesota Vikings to acquire another multidimensional wideout, Percy Harvin.

John Schneider, the Seahawks' general manager, felt relief Thursday when the Rams traded up eight spots in the first round to make Austin the first skill-position player selected.

It's not that Schneider was happy to see such an elite talent land in St. Louis. Quite the opposite. Even the Seahawks' suffocating secondary could have its troubles against a receiver as gifted as Austin. It's just that the way the first round played out affirmed the Seahawks' decision to acquire Harvin. They could not have secured another wideout with as much playmaking potential had they held onto the 25th overall pick.

Austin wasn't going to be there for them.

Once the Rams moved up from 16th to eighth for Austin, no NFL teams selected a wideout until the Houston Texans drafted Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins at No. 27. Cordarrelle Patterson went to the Vikings two picks later.

"Quite honestly, it made me feel at peace just because of where we were with the Percy deal when it started," Schneider said following the third round Friday night.

Both Hopkins and Patterson are obviously talented, but if they had struck evaluators as fitting into the Austin/Harvin mold, teams would have been tripping over one another in a rush to draft them earlier.

Schneider's thinking came into clearer focus in the weeks since Seattle made the move for Harvin before free agency opened March 12.

"I really wasn't quite sure, didn't feel really strongly about the difference makers at the receiver position at that level of the first round [in the 25th-pick range]," Schneider reflected. "And then the closer we got to the draft, the tape on Austin, it just kind of became obvious that he was going to be an extremely high pick."

That commentary should please Rams fans and Seahawks fans alike. Each team's leadership thought Austin was special. The Seahawks knew they had to deal for Harvin if they hoped to land a similar player. Not that Austin and Harvin are interchangeable. While both threaten the end zone as receivers, runners and returners, Harvin has a much sturdier build. He's part running back and part receiver in a much fuller sense. But touchdowns are touchdowns, and both teams expect their new wideouts to supply them multiple ways.

"We really do think Percy is our No. 1 pick," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. "He is part of this class."

Acquiring Harvin and addressing other areas of the roster during free agency left Seattle without significant needs entering this draft. That allowed the Seahawks, already loaded in the backfield with Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, to indulge in Texas A&M running back Christine Michael.

This was a luxury pick and arguably a nonsensical one. It's also the sort of move smart organizations make. Seattle didn't have a need at quarterback when the team used a third-round draft choice for Russell Wilson last season. That move worked out pretty well.

The Seahawks could realistically be in the market for a new back two years down the line if Lynch's bruising style shortens his career. Having Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter on the roster didn't stop the San Francisco 49ers from using a second-round choice for LaMichael James last year. The 49ers took some heat when their 2012 draft class failed to produce much, but such is life for contending teams.

"We'll let these guys go at it, make sure everybody is aware of the competitive opportunity and hopefully that continues to make them elevate," Carroll said. "Sometimes there is a subtle way they help us by making other guys play well."

Not that Seattle was without needs entirely.

"Defensive tackle was definitely a need for us -- adding depth to the position," Schneider said. "That was the one spot that quite honestly, when you're putting it together, you are nervous you are maybe pushing players because of the need."

Seattle used its third-round choice (87th overall) for Penn State defensive tackle Jordan Hill. He'll probably contribute more as a pass-rusher than a run stuffer, differentiating him clearly from Alan Branch, who left in free agency. The Seahawks felt the talent at defensive tackle was about to drop off quickly as the third round gave way to the fourth. That gave them additional incentive to grab Hill.

The Seahawks hold 10 picks in the fourth through seventh rounds. Schneider and Carroll previously found K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor in that range. Others such as Turbin, Walter Thurmond, Jeremy Lane, Anthony McCoy, J.R. Sweezy and Malcolm Smith came to Seattle in those rounds.

There might not be a Tavon Austin or Percy Harvin out there, but as the Seahawks and Rams discovered, that was the case eight picks into the draft.

The Arizona Cardinals have built their secondary around former LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson. They've got another ex-Tigers corner after adding Tyrann Mathieu -- also known as "Honey Badger" for his tenacious playing style -- with the 69th overall choice Friday.

Mathieu projects as a slot corner, a position of increasing importance in the NFL as offenses lean on the passing game. The Cardinals will have to deal with St. Louis' Tavon Austin and Seattle's Percy Harvin, two quick slot players recently added to Arizona's NFC West rivals.

Mathieu reportedly failed to show up for a pre-draft workout with Seattle. Scouts have described him as a high-risk, high-reward prospect, with concerns relating to his maturity. Mathieu was kicked off the team at LSU, reportedly for drug-related reasons. He has a marijuana-related arrest on his record.

Mathieu should bring attitude and ability to the Cardinals' secondary. It's up to the team's coaching staff -- and Mathieu himself -- to maximize the investment.

Update: Coach Bruce Arians subsequently told reporters in Arizona that Mathieu would play free safety initially.
Good morning, NFC West. This division knows how to shake up the first round of a draft.

The Seattle Seahawks bailed on the 25th overall pick weeks ago, using that choice to land Percy Harvin, one of the NFL's most dynamic playmakers. Bold move.



The St. Louis Rams and San Francisco 49ers moved up a combined 21 spots in the first round Thursday to snag the guys they really wanted.

The Rams got West Virginia receiver Tavon Austin, advertised as the most dynamic playmaker in the draft. Very bold move.

The 49ers got LSU safety Eric Reid. That one didn't feel as bold, but moving up 13 spots to get Reid at No. 18 marked the most ground any team moved within the first round (Minnesota jumped from outside the first round into the 29th slot). So, that was a bold move, too.

The Arizona Cardinals played it safe and straight, standing pat at No. 7 and taking a guard. Jonathan Cooper was the first guard selected. He was, by definition, the one Arizona wanted the most. This was not a bold move. But with only seven picks in their possession entering the draft and only six slots ahead of them in the round, the Cardinals weren't going to make a dramatic move up the board.

And so we emerge from the first round feeling ... what? Seattle and St. Louis got the game-changing weapons to energize their offenses and special teams. The 49ers got a potential Pro Bowl safety to replace Pro Bowl safety Dashon Goldson, an efficient tradeoff given how much more Goldson would have cost against the salary cap. The Cardinals got a badly needed building block for their offensive line. The Rams weren't done with Austin, either. They recouped some of what they lost in the trade up for Austin when they moved back eight spots to No. 30 and drafted linebacker Alec Ogletree.

Opponents will fear playmakers such as Harvin and Austin more than they will fear top safeties and guards. From that standpoint, we could favor Seattle and St. Louis for likely dynamic impact. I'd say every team in the division had good reason for following the course it followed. Three of the four teams made targeted strikes, meaning they got exactly what they wanted from first-round capital. They can feel good about that.
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St. Louis Rams general manager Les Snead has repeatedly vowed to act boldly and without fear. The team is succeeding on both fronts.

One year after swinging a blockbuster trade with the Washington Redskins, Snead and the Rams moved up eight spots in the first round of the 2013 NFL draft Thursday to select West Virginia receiver Tavon Austin at No. 8 overall.

The Rams sent the 16th, 46th, 78th and 222nd choices to Buffalo for the eighth and 71st choices. The exchange lined up evenly on the traditional trade-value chart dating to the early 1990s. However, the Rams came out ahead using some of the modernized trade-value calculations, such as the ones Steve Drake has made easy to figure out.

Austin
This is an exciting move for the Rams because Austin projects as a game-breaking talent with value in the return game. He is 5-foot-8 and 174 pounds with a slight lower body, so he is not another Percy Harvin. Still, Austin can affect a game in some of the same ways, and his salary will easily fit into the Rams' salary structure thanks to the rookie wage scale that has given teams even more incentive to build through the draft.

Austin gives the Rams needed playmaking help. He joins a receiving corps featuring Chris Givens, Brian Quick and Austin Pettis, plus tight ends Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks.

Quarterback Sam Bradford has needed upgraded weapons for some time. Now, he might have them. Austin should be a factor right away. His size raises concerns about long-term durability. That will be something to watch, for sure, as Austin navigates a rough-and-tumble NFC West featuring extremely physical defenses.
Cameron asks via Twitter whether the Seattle Seahawks should automatically get an A-plus grade for their 2013 first-round draft performance after using the 25th overall choice to acquire multidimensional receiver Percy Harvin.

Seattle made the deal in part because the team felt as though no player it drafted would match Harvin for impact. That seems like a safe assumption.

However, any analysis of the Harvin acquisition must also take into account the price paid beyond the 25th overall pick. The Seahawks also gave up a 2013 seventh-round choice and a 2014 third-rounder. Seattle also handed Harvin a contract far outpacing what those three draft choices would have earned.

So, if you think Harvin was worth those three picks and a contract averaging between about $11 million and $12.9 million per year, depending upon how you account for the new money in his extension, go ahead and give the Seahawks an A-plus.
Predicting which teams will draft specific players can be tough work.

Last year, for instance, the seven-round mock draft Insider from Scouts Inc. went 0-for-28 in projecting players to NFC West teams. Some of the projections lined up from the standpoint of position. For example, the Seattle Seahawks did select a linebacker in the second round, but it was Bobby Wagner, not Lavonte David. The St. Louis Rams did take a receiver in the second round, but it was Brian Quick, not Rueben Randle.

One unexpected turn in a draft can throw off subsequent projections. The 2013 draft appears particularly tough to handicap. John Schneider, the Seattle Seahawks' general manager, recently said he could not recall a draft quite like this one from that standpoint.

So, good luck, mock drafters.

The Scouts Inc. seven-round mock for 2013 Insider provides a conversation starter as we navigate the final day before the real draft begins.

A run through the picks for NFC West teams (with a head nod to similar pieces from Kevin Seifert and Jamison Hensley for the divisions they cover):

Arizona Cardinals

Jordan's availability at No. 7 might come as a surprise. The Cardinals would, in theory, improve their outside pass rush with that selection.

The Barkley projection might catch you off-guard after Carson Palmer's arrival changed the subject away from quarterbacks. Drew Stanton has some salary guarantees, too. I'm skeptical.

The Scouts Inc. projection would extend to six the streak of drafts without Arizona selecting an offensive lineman in the first three rounds. Jordan Mills, the projected choice in the fifth round, wouldn't help the situation at guard, where the team has a need, in my view.

The Cardinals would also come away without immediate help at safety and without a speed receiver. The offense wouldn't improve enough right away through this draft.

St. Louis Rams

Safety, running back, receiver, guard and outside linebacker might be the five top needs for the Rams, not necessarily in that order.

The Scouts Inc. mock addresses each of those needs with the Rams' first five picks.

The Rams will have to balance clear needs at safety and elsewhere against a big-picture desire to continue building the roster for the long term with additional choices secured from the Washington Redskins.

At 231 pounds, Lacy would fill the Rams' need for a bigger back after the team allowed Steven Jackson out of his contract. Lacy, Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson would give the Rams a talented young committee at the position.

San Francisco 49ers

There's very little chance the 49ers will hold onto all 13 of their selections, of course. They'll have the flexibility to move forward, move back or even trade into the 2014 draft.

The projection for Brandon Williams in the third round caught my attention.

Williams is a 335-pounder from Missouri Southern State. He cranked out 38 reps in the bench press at the scouting combine, most among defensive tackles. Scouts think he projects to multiple positions across multiple schemes in the NFL. That would appeal to a team such as the 49ers.

Williams played at the NCAA Division II level. Would the 49ers use a third-round choice for a Division II prospect? They used a sixth-rounder for Western Oregon's Jason Slowey last year, the only time San Francisco has selected a Division II player over the past two drafts.

It's an interesting thought. The 49ers do have a need for a big, talented, versatile defensive lineman. They could bring along a prospect such as Williams with an eye toward 2014.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are one of two teams without a first-round selection after sending theirs to Minnesota in the Percy Harvin deal.

The second-round projection, Sio Moore of Connecticut, would give the Seahawks a weakside linebacker to play with Wagner (middle) and K.J. Wright (strong side).

The team also has plans for Cliff Avril at linebacker, at least in some capacity. There's room for a standard weakside linebacker after the Seahawks allowed Leroy Hill to reach free agency.

Tavarres King, the Georgia receiver projected in the fifth round, is known as a vertical threat. He averaged 22.6 yards per reception last season.
Seattle Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor recently became the fourth 2010 NFC West draft choice to sign a second contract with his original team.

The number of choices a team signs to second contracts can help evaluate overall draft success, especially over time. Bill Barnwell alluded to it during his recent piece suggesting teams have only a general idea what they're doing in the draft.

Teams should now be starting to think about re-signing some of those 2010 choices, particularly those who signed four-year contracts. That generally includes players drafted after the first round.

I've broken down the choices into a few categories for easy analysis.

Already Re-Signed

First round: Anthony Davis, RT, San Francisco 49ers. Davis has started all 48 regular-season games and five playoff games in three seasons for the 49ers. He does not turn 24 years old until October. He is now under contract through 2019 on a deal featuring nearly $17 million in guarantees.

Second round: Daryl Washington, ILB, Arizona Cardinals. Washington has 47 starts and is coming off a nine-sack season. The Cardinals gave him $5 million guaranteed as part of a contract extension signed last season. The deal includes a $10 million option bonus due following the 2013 season. Washington must first serve a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's policy on substance abuse. His long-term future is bright if he avoids additional positive drug tests.

Third round: NaVorro Bowman, ILB, 49ers. Bowman became one of the best inside linebackers in the NFL after succeeding Takeo Spikes in the lineup. The 49ers gave him $25.5 million in guarantees on a deal running through 2018. Bowman appears in position to produce at a high level for a long time. The team felt as though he could remain productive even if the team changed its scheme.

Fifth round: Chancellor, SS, Seahawks. Chancellor signed a four-year extension through the 2017 season. The deal is expected to average $7 million per year over the final four years. The average would fall if we divided by the five years until Chancellor becomes a free agent. We'll revisit this one once the contract figures can be confirmed.

Awaiting Their Turns

First round: Russell Okung, LT, Seahawks. Signed through 2015. Earned Pro Bowl honors last season. Another injury-free season would put Okung in prime position.

First round: Earl Thomas, FS, Seahawks. Signed through 2014. Earned Pro Bowl honors last season. Chancellor re-signed before Thomas simply because his deal was expiring first. Thomas should be a priority to re-sign.

First round: Mike Iupati, LG, 49ers. Signed through 2014. Earned Pro Bowl honors last season. Davis re-signed before Iupati, but the 49ers want to keep both.

Pivotal 2013 Seasons

First round: Sam Bradford, QB, Rams. Bradford is signed through 2015, so there is time. Bradford still must play at a higher level to maximize his value, beginning this season.

First round: Dan Williams, NT, Cardinals. Williams is signed through 2014. He is on his third defensive coordinator in four seasons. Scheme matters for a player Arizona drafted as a 3-4 nose tackle.

Second round: Rodger Saffold, RT, Rams. Saffold is entering the final year of his deal. He is expected to move from left tackle to the right side following Jake Long's addition. He needs better luck with injuries to maximize his value.

Second round: Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks. Tate is entering the final year of his contract. He broke out with eight touchdown receptions last season. Seattle expects Percy Harvin to open up opportunities for Tate, but significant financial outlays at the position call into question Tate's future with the team beyond this season.

Third round: Andre Roberts, WR, Cardinals. Roberts is entering the final year of his contract. All the Cardinals' receivers, including Larry Fitzgerald, suffered from poor quarterback play last season. Roberts has an opportunity to bounce back with Carson Palmer throwing to him.

Gotta Stay Healthy

Fourth round: Walter Thurmond, CB, Seahawks. Signed through 2013, Thurmond has played in eight games over the past two seasons. Time could be running out.

Fourth round: O'Brien Schofield, OLB, Cardinals. Schofield is signed through 2013. He appears to have largely overcome the knee trouble that hurt his draft stock. The injury he suffered last season was freak in nature. Still, missing seven games prevented Schofield from enhancing his value.
The Seattle Seahawks' contract extension for safety Kam Chancellor goes against the grain in the NFC West.

The rest of the division has been slashing salary at the position.



Arizona cut starters Adrian Wilson and Kerry Rhodes. St. Louis cut starter Quintin Mikell while watching the other starter, Craig Dahl, sign a modest deal with San Francisco. The 49ers watched Pro Bowl free safety Dashon Goldson leave for Tampa Bay in free agency without making an effort to keep him.

The exact figures for Chancellor's new deal aren't yet known, but he will certainly become the highest-paid safety in the NFC West. ESPN's John Clayton reported the terms as five years and $35 million. Chancellor had one season remaining on his deal.

Chancellor turned 25 this month. That differentiated him from Wilson (33), Mikell (32), Rhodes (30), and Goldson (28). Another difference: Chancellor was drafted by his team's current coach and general manager. The other safeties listed were left behind from previous GMs and coaching staffs.

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider made it clear during a news conference Monday that they were personally invested in Chancellor's development from 2010 fifth-round draft choice to team leader and Pro Bowl-caliber safety. For them, rewarding Chancellor reiterated the message that Seattle will reward its own players -- a point that arguably needed reinforcing after the team sprung for outsider Percy Harvin, among others, this offseason.
Good morning, NFC West. We're down to three days before the 2013 NFL draft, but the veteran trade market has proved more compelling this offseason, in my view.

Percy Harvin, Anquan Boldin and Carson Palmer were key additions here in the NFC West.

The Darrelle Revis trade from the New York Jets to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reverberated through the AFC East and NFC South on Sunday. We'll feel some aftershocks around here now that Revis, if healthy, will face every team in the NFC West. Revis would not have faced NFC West teams had he remained with the Jets.

The Arizona Cardinals visit Tampa Bay in Week 4, a chance for Revis to match up with Larry Fitzgerald (while Patrick Peterson matches up with Vincent Jackson).

The Seattle Seahawks are home against Tampa Bay in Week 9, which will refocus attention on the back-and-forth between Revis and Richard Sherman earlier this offseason.

The San Francisco 49ers visit Tampa Bay in Week 15. The Bucs visit St. Louis in Week 16.

The Jets ideally would have kept Revis. Their salary-cap situation is a mess, however. Reports have suggested Jets ownership preferred trading Revis to paying him. True or not, perception seemed to become reality, affecting the relationship between Revis and the Jets. In the end, the Jets recouped some value for an injured player who appeared likely to depart in another year anyway.

Tampa Bay should feel excited after adding a potentially great player. However, the Jets and Bucs will succeed or fail based on their quarterbacks, not their cornerbacks.
RENTON, Wash. -- Tis the season for NFL general managers to talk about the upcoming draft without tipping their hands.

The Seattle Seahawks' John Schneider and the San Francisco 49ers' Trent Baalke took their turns during pre-draft news conferences Wednesday. I was able to attend Schneider's session, which the team also streamed live on its website. A few notes and observations:
  • Personalities: Schneider's occasional references to movies such as "Step Brothers" and "Tommy Boy" show why he fits so well with coach Pete Carroll, who counts comedian Will Ferrell among his buddies and occasional visitors to team functions (including, presumably, any Catalina Wine Mixers). These guys like to have fun. Schneider joked that he was hoping to spend the draft's first round at Dino's Pub across the street from team headquarters until team officials talked him out of it. Seattle doesn't have a first-round pick after trading it to Minnesota for Percy Harvin. Schneider said the revised first-round plan was to watch Harvin highlights on YouTube while other teams made their picks.
  • Draft lessons: Schneider, asked about the boom-and-bust nature of players the team has drafted in the fourth round or thereabouts, pointed to a couple draft-related missteps he hoped to avoid in the future. Comparing a draft prospect to a veteran player with similar attributes has backfired in the past, he said, because it's tough to measure what's in a player's heart. Schneider also said it's a mistake to let a prospect's excellent production in college lull a team into asking fewer questions about the player. Schneider indicated that had happened to him in the past. He did not name names, but Kris Durham, E.J. Wilson and Mark LeGree were three underwhelming players the team selected in those rounds. Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and K.J. Wright were among the success stories.
  • Clemons' health: Schneider sounded optimistic about defensive end Chris Clemons' recovery from ACL surgery. He noted that Clemons proved to be a quick healer from foot/ankle surgery years ago. Clemons has a reputation on the team for being exceedingly tough when it comes to playing through pain. However, the team appears in position to carry Clemons on the physically unable to perform list, buying additional time before working Clemons into the lineup during the season. Adding Cliff Avril in free agency added flexibility.
  • Carpenter's confidence: James Carpenter is a wild-card player for the Seahawks on their offensive line. The team would love for him to emerge as a starting guard. Health is the No. 1 concern. Carpenter has struggled to regain quickness and range after suffering a serious knee injury. Schneider said Carpenter is the strongest player on the team, but the challenge will be for Carpenter to regain confidence and flexibility in his legs. Carpenter did stay in the Seattle area this offseason, which should help from a conditioning and rehabilitation standpoint.
  • 49ers watching: Fans and reporters have been paying close attention to the moves Seattle and San Francisco have been making since finishing one-half game apart in the standings last season. Schneider said he doesn't get caught up in what other teams are doing, but he did say he thought the 49ers fared well in adding Anquan Boldin, Glenn Dorsey and Colt McCoy specifically.
  • Winfield fit: Seattle announced cornerback Antoine Winfield's signing. The Seahawks see Winfield as a slot defender whose addition fills a specific need while improving the team's defense against run and pass alike. He said Winfield's agent was very aggressive in pushing for a deal with Seattle. Schneider considered that an indication players are eager to join a strong Seattle defense. He theorized that Carroll's reputation for treating players as men has gotten around the league, making Seattle a more attractive destination.
  • Grading the draft: Seattle and Washington are the only teams without first-round picks. Teams grade players differently, of course, and there will usually be players graded as first-round talents still available in the second round. Schneider said the number is usually two or three in a given year. He said there will usually be five to 15 players his teams gave second-round grades still available in that round. When the Seahawks used a 2010 second-round choice for receiver Golden Tate, they said at the time they had him rated as a first-round player.

That's it from here. Time to dive into that rush-hour traffic for the trip home.
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