ESPN NFL

We might have to suspend longstanding charges of East Coast bias after the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers landed 1-2 in ESPN's latest NFL Power Rankings.

All five panelists ranked Seattle and San Francisco among their top five. Three of the five ranked Seattle first.

Of course, rankings tend to correlate with recent performance, which does not guarantee anything for the future.

The Seahawks were last ranked first in Week 1 of the 2006 season. That team was coming off a Super Bowl appearance. Those Seahawks finished 9-7 before losing an overtime game to the Chicago Bears in the divisional playoffs.

The 49ers were ranked No. 1 after winning at New England in Week 15 last season. They were third after the 2012 regular season (Seattle was fifth).

There is nothing particularly scientific about these rankings. In this case, they provide a benchmark for perceptions and can be interesting to view over time.

Perceptions do matter for the purposes of scheduling. This year, those perceptions should lead the NFL to strongly consider a nationally televised Seahawks-49ers opener. Both teams have exciting young quarterbacks, rugged running backs and punishing defenses. Both have high-profile head coaches with a competitive history. The additions of Percy Harvin and Anquan Boldin add to the appeal.

ESPN's John Clayton raised eyebrows around here when he ranked the Atlanta Falcons atop his power rankings ballot last week.

The Falcons had just suffered a 30-20 defeat to Carolina, after all. They were looking as if they would again become playoff chumps, not potential Super Bowl champs.

The view is a little different this week after the Falcons scored a 34-0 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants in Week 15. But with San Francisco knocking off previously top-ranked New England, the 49ers have assumed the No. 1 spot in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 16.

The Falcons remained stuck at No. 5 despite again getting Clayton's highest regards. Atlanta might have to prove itself in the playoffs before our other voters come around.

Jamison Hensley, Ashley Fox and I ranked the 49ers first on our ballots. Dan Graziano became the first of our voters to rank the Denver Broncos No. 1 this season. That helped the Broncos rank second overall, ahead of Houston, New England and those potentially underrated Falcons. Green Bay held firm at No. 6, and Seattle jumped three spots into the seventh slot after its second consecutive game with at least 50 points. Graziano moved Seattle up five spots, the largest jump for any team on his ballot.

Falling (12): New York Giants (-5), New England Patriots (-3), Baltimore Ravens (-3), Chicago Bears (-3), Detroit Lions (-3), Tampa Bay Bucs (-2), New York Jets (-2), Cleveland Browns (-2), Philadelphia Eagles (-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (-1), San Diego Chargers (-1), Buffalo Bills (-1).

Rising (11): Washington Redskins (+4), New Orleans Saints (+4), San Francisco 49ers (+3), Seattle Seahawks (+3), Dallas Cowboys (+3), Carolina Panthers (+3), Miami Dolphins (+2), Tennessee Titans (+2), Arizona Cardinals (+2), Cincinnati Bengals (+1), Minnesota Vikings (+1).

Unchanged (9): Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs.

Deadlocked: We broke no ties this week.

Like minds: All five panelists ranked the Seahawks seventh and the Rams 17th.

Agree to disagree: At least five spots in the rankings separated high and low votes for eight teams. The Jets produced the widest disparity.

A look at the highest and lowest votes for the eight teams in question:

• Jets (6): Clayton and Hensley 18th, Sando and Graziano 24th.
• Falcons (5): Clayton first, Sando sixth.
• Ravens (5): Clayton eighth, Fox 13th.
• Giants (5): Fox ninth, Clayton 14th.
• Bears (5): Clayton 10th, Fox 15th.
• Panthers (5): Sando 20th, Fox 25th.
• Chargers (5): Clayton 22nd, Fox 27th.
• Titans (5): Sando 23rd, Graziano 28th.

Power Rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: The NFC West overtook the NFC North and AFC North as the highest-rated division on average. The NFC East was second, followed by the AFC North, NFC North, NFC South, AFC South, AFC East and AFC West. The AFC East and AFC South tied for sixth with an average ranking of 17.25.

A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Cardinals (+5), Titans (+5), Saints (+6).
• Clayton: Giants (-6), Lions (-5), Buccaneers (-5), Panthers (+5).
• Graziano: Bears (-5), Seahawks (+5).
• Hensley: Dolphins (+5).
• Fox: none.

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

For example, the Packers and Patriots outrank the Seahawks even though Seattle defeated both teams.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Resort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

The Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles are riding eight-game losing streaks 16 months after making the Kevin Kolb trade.

Those losing streaks were enough for me to list them 31st and 32nd, respectively, on my ESPN.com NFL Power Rankings ballot heading into Week 14.

Both teams are on the road this week -- Arizona at Seattle, Philadelphia at Tampa Bay -- against opponents blessed with hot quarterbacks and fighting for playoff spots.

Life might get tougher before it gets easier for these trading partners. Some of the teams near the top of our rankings have it rough, too.

The top-ranked Houston Texans visit the third-ranked New England Patriots in the "Monday Night Football" matchup for Week 14. Sixth-ranked Baltimore visits Washington, which has won three in a row.

Our two highest-ranked teams, Houston and Atlanta, sit atop their conference's playoff seeding charts. Third-ranked New England and fourth-ranked San Francisco are second seeds. There's some disagreement over where the Ravens and San Francisco 49ers should stand. Ashley Fox and I discussed our thinking on those teams in this week's video.

And now, a closer look at the rankings heading into Week 14:

Falling (12): New Orleans Saints (-3), San Diego Chargers (-3), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3), Arizona Cardinals (-2), Baltimore Ravens (-2), Chicago Bears (-2), Miami Dolphins (-2), New York Giants (-2), Detroit Lions (-1), Jacksonville Jaguars (-1), Minnesota Vikings (-1), San Francisco 49ers (-1).

Rising (13): Cleveland Browns (+3), Dallas Cowboys (+3), Washington Redskins (+3), Denver Broncos (+2), Green Bay Packers (+2), New England Patriots (+2), St. Louis Rams (+2), Buffalo Bills (+1), Indianapolis Colts (+1), Kansas City Chiefs (+1), New York Jets (+1), Pittsburgh Steelers (+1), Seattle Seahawks (+1).

Unchanged (7): Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans.

Deadlocked: We broke no ties this week.

Like minds: All five voters ranked the Texans first and the Patriots third.

Agree to disagree: The Rams, Titans and Seahawks generated the largest disparities between highest and lowest votes.

A look at all teams generating high-low gaps of at least six spots in the rankings:

• Rams (9): Jamison Hensley 16th, John Clayton 25th.
• Titans (8): Clayton 22nd, Dan Graziano 30th.
• Seahawks (7): Sando eighth, Graziano 15th.
• Chargers (6): Clayton 21st, Fox 27th.
• Browns (6): Graziano 22nd, Clayton 28th.
• Cardinals (6): Hensley 25th, Sando 31st.

Power Rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: The AFC North overtook the NFC North as the highest-rated division on average. The NFC West was third, followed by the NFC South, AFC South, AFC East, NFC East and AFC West.

A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Cardinals (-5), Saints (-5), Browns (+6).
• Clayton: Giants (-5).
• Graziano: none.
• Hensley: Browns (+5).
• Fox: Chargers (-6).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

For example, the Texans outrank the Packers even though Green Bay defeated Houston.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

Take a good look at the top-five order for ESPN's NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 10. Changes could be right around the corner.

The second-ranked Houston Texans visit the third-ranked Chicago Bears on Sunday night.

The Bears then visit the fourth-ranked San Francisco 49ers on "Monday Night Football" in Week 11. Meanwhile, the top-ranked Falcons visit New Orleans on Sunday for what figures to be an NFC South death match from the Saints' perspective.

The fifth-ranked New York Giants and sixth-ranked Green Bay Packers face one another in Week 12.

The top five shuffled some this week when the Giants lost at home to Pittsburgh. Houston moved up one spot to second. Chicago moved up two spots to third. The idle 49ers remained fourth. The Giants fell three spots, the biggest decline for any team ranked higher than 15th this week.

And now, a closer look at the rankings for this week:

Falling (11): Minnesota Vikings (-5), Dallas Cowboys (-4), Arizona Cardinals (-4), New York Giants (-3), Miami Dolphins (-3), Philadelphia Eagles (-3), Oakland Raiders (-2), New England Patriots (-1), Cincinnati Bengals (-1), St. Louis Rams (-1), Cleveland Browns (-1).

Rising (10): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8), Indianapolis Colts (+4), New Orleans Saints (+4), Detroit Lions (+3), San Diego Chargers (+3), Chicago Bears (+2), Houston Texans (+1), Denver Broncos (+1), Seattle Seahawks (+1), Carolina Panthers (+1).

Unchanged (11): Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs.

Deadlocked: We broke three ties this week. Detroit and Miami have not played each other this season. Both are 4-4. The Lions won a game more recently, however, and that made them the choice at No. 14. Tennessee edged Buffalo at No. 27 based on head-to-head results. Arizona prevailed over Philadelphia at No. 20 based on the same criteria.

Like minds: All five voters had the Falcons first, the Texans second, the Jaguars 31st and the Chiefs 32nd.

Agree to disagree: Seven spots separated high and low votes for San Diego and Cincinnati.

A look at all teams generating high-low gaps of at least six spots in the rankings:

• Chargers (7): Ashley Fox 13th, Dan Graziano 20th.
• Bengals (7): John Clayton 19th, Jamison Hensley 26th.
• Buccaneers (6): Graziano 11th, Clayton 17th.
• Redskins (6): Graziano 18th, Sando 24th.
• Cardinals (6): Hensley 17th, Sando 23rd.
• Saints (6): Sando 18th, Hensley and Fox 24th.
• Rams (6): Fox 21st, Clayton 27th.
• Jets (6): Graziano and Hensley 23rd, Fox 29th.

Power Rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: The NFC North far outranks other divisions with a 9.9 average ranking for its four teams. The NFC West was second with a 15.0 average ranking. That is the largest gap I can recall between the top two divisions. The NFC South (16.2) was next, followed by the NFC East (16.3), AFC North (17.2), AFC South (17.9), AFC East (18.8) and AFC West (20.8).

A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Cardinals (-6), Raiders (-5), Buccaneers (+6), Saints (+7).
• Clayton: Eagles (-10), Vikings (-7), Buccaneers (+5), Saints (+5), Colts (+9).
• Graziano: Cowboys (-5), Vikings (-5), Colts (+6), Buccaneers (+9).
• Hensley: none.
• Fox: Lions (+5), Buccaneers (+7).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

For example, the 49ers outrank the Giants even though the Giants won at Candlestick Park this season. Green Bay owns victories over the higher-ranked Bears and Texans.

Arizona is the highest-ranked team with more than two victories over teams currently ranked higher. That makes sense given that the Cardinals have gone from 4-0 to 4-5.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

The undefeated Atlanta Falcons stand atop ESPN's NFL Power Rankings for the first time since a four-week run in 2010.

They opened the regular season at No. 10 and spent the past three weeks at No. 2 behind the Houston Texans.

How good are the Falcons? They could be a lot better, actually.

"Despite their lofty record, the Falcons definitely aren't the best team in the NFL," NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas wrote. "They're not even the best team in the NFC at the moment. I’m not sure which team is the best in the NFL or the NFC, but it's not the Falcons. At least not yet."

The Falcons were a consensus No. 1 choice among our five Power Rankings voters because they're unbeaten and because someone has to fill the top spot.

Houston is the only team to spend more than one week as our No. 1 team since the regular season began. The Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers were one-week wonders. The Falcons have a bye, so they'll remain unbeaten a week from now.

The New York Giants have won four of five and jumped four spots to No. 3 after their 26-3 victory at San Francisco. They've got division games over the next two weeks, however, and those can be unpredictable. The Giants are 0-2 in the NFC East so far.

And now, a closer look at the rankings for this week:

Falling (14): Cincinnati Bengals (-6), Dallas Cowboys (-5), Indianapolis Colts (-4), Pittsburgh Steelers (-4), Arizona Cardinals (-2), Carolina Panthers (-2), Kansas City Chiefs (-2), Minnesota Vikings (-2), New England Patriots (-2), Philadelphia Eagles (-2), San Diego Chargers (-2), San Francisco 49ers (-2), St. Louis Rams (-2), Houston Texans (-1).

Rising (13): Seattle Seahawks (+7), Washington Redskins (+6), Denver Broncos (+5), Green Bay Packers (+4), New York Giants (+4), Buffalo Bills (+2), Cleveland Browns (+2), Miami Dolphins (+2), New York Jets (+2), Atlanta Falcons (+1), Detroit Lions (+1), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1), Tennessee Titans (+1).

Unchanged (5): Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, Oakland Raiders.

Deadlocked: We broke three ties this week. Houston prevailed over the Giants at No. 2 based on the second tiebreaker (overall record). Minnesota prevailed over Arizona for the 10th spot based on the third tiebreaker (which team won a game most recently). Jacksonville beat out Kansas City for the No. 31 spot based on the second tiebreaker. Head-to-head results is the first tiebreaker.

Like minds: All five voters ranked the Falcons first and the Texans third.

Agree to disagree: Six teams generated gaps of at least eight spots between highest and lowest votes. Detroit was the most divisive team for a second week in a row.

A look at all teams generating high-low disparities of at least eight spots in the rankings:

• Lions (11): Dan Graziano ranked them 14th, higher than any other voter ranked them. Jamison Hensley ranked them 25th, lower than any other voter ranked them.
• Redskins (10): Graziano 12th, John Clayton 22nd.
• Seahawks (9): Sando and Ashley Fox seventh, Graziano 16th.
• Vikings (9): Clayton eighth, Graziano 17th.
• Cowboys (8): Graziano 13th, Sando 21st.
• Saints (8): Graziano 20th, Clayton 28th.

Power Rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the NFC North ranked 10.9 on average, overtaking teams from the NFC West (11.6) to become the highest-ranked division on average. The NFC East was third (12.3), followed by the AFC North (16.8), NFC South (18.3), AFC East (18.4), AFC South (21.5) and AFC West (22.3).

A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least six spots since last week:

• Sando: none.
• Clayton: Bengals (-6), Giants (+9).
• Graziano: Redskins (+6).
• Hensley: Bengals (-8), Dolphins (+6), Seahawks (+6), Broncos (+7), Redskins (+8).
• Fox: Steelers (-9), Cowboys (-8), Colts (-7), Redskins (+6), Seahawks (+11).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

For example, Baltimore outranks Philadelphia even though the Eagles defeated the Ravens.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

Take a bow, Green Bay Packers. You sailed through ESPN's NFL Power Rankings as the top team from Week 1 through the regular season.

There was lots of movement beneath you, however.

Our Power Rankings voters -- John Clayton, Paul Kuharsky, James Walker, Ashley Fox and I -- tip our caps to the four teams making double-digit jumps from Week 1 to the present.

The San Francisco 49ers finished a league-high 23 spots higher than they started, settling in at No. 3 after peaking one spot higher. The Cincinnati Bengals finished 11th after starting dead last at No. 32. Denver (plus-13) and Tennessee (plus-11) also outperformed initial expectations relative to other teams.

These four surprise teams invited skepticism for various reasons.

The 49ers were breaking in a new coaching staff following the lockout while sticking with Alex Smith at quarterback. The Bengals were transitioning from Carson Palmer to rookie Andy Dalton. Denver was coming off a disastrous season. Tennessee got more from Matt Hasselbeck than we might have expected.

There were underachievers, too.

The Indianapolis Colts finished 23 spots lower than anticipated, dropping from ninth amid preseason concerns over Peyton Manning's health to 32nd without their quarterback playing a single snap all season. Tampa Bay (-17), St. Louis (-14), the New York Jets (-12), Philadelphia (-11) and Minnesota (-10) also fell at least 10 places since Week 1.

Two teams, No. 1 Green Bay and No. 24 Miami, were exactly who we thought they would be. Their rankings finished right where they started. Sixteen other teams finished within five spots of where they started, with Cleveland, Dallas, Houston and Atlanta finishing within one spot of Week 1 expectations.

And now, a closer look at the rankings through Week 17, beginning with a look at how teams changed (or did not change) in the rankings from last week:

Falling (10): Oakland Raiders (-3), New York Jets (-3), Seattle Seahawks (-3), Dallas Cowboys (-2), Carolina Panthers (-2), Detroit Lions (-1), Houston Texans (-1), Cincinnati Bengals (-1), Denver Broncos (-1), Indianapolis Colts (-1).

Rising (9): Tennessee Titans (+3), San Diego Chargers (+3), New York Giants (+2), Philadelphia Eagles (+2), Arizona Cardinals (+2), Chicago Bears (+2), Atlanta Falcons (+1), Kansas City Chiefs (+1), St. Louis Rams (+1).

Unchanged (13): Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Washington Redskins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings.

Deadlocked: We broke one tie this week. The Cowboys prevailed over the Broncos at No. 13 based on the third tiebreaker, which team won most recently. Head-to-head and overall record did not come into play.

Like minds: All five voters ranked the Packers first and the Saints second.

Agree to disagree: Some of the wildly inconsistent teams generated larger disparities on voters' ballots. Oakland finished 8-8, for example, but how good were the Raiders, anyway?

A look at the teams generating high-low disparities of at least five spots in the rankings:

• Cowboys (5): Clayton ranked them 12th, higher than any other voter ranked them. Fox ranked them 17th, lower than any other voter ranked them.
• Raiders (5): Clayton 14th, Sando and Fox 19th.
• Cardinals (5): Fox 16th, Walker 21st.
• Bears (5): Kuharsky 18th, Sando and Clayton 23rd.
• Seahawks (5): Sando 18th, Walker 23rd.

Power Rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the AFC North maintained the highest average ranking for any division, ahead of teams from the NFC North.


A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Chargers (+5).
• Clayton: none.
• Kuharsky: Jets (-5).
• Walker: none.
• Fox: Cowboys (-5), Eagles (+5), Chargers (+5).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

Buffalo, Kansas City and Seattle each defeated five teams ranked higher than them this week, tied for most in the league. The teams ranked second through fourth -- New Orleans, San Francisco and New England -- were 0-1 against higher-ranked teams (the Saints lost to the Packers, but the other teams in question did not play each other).

Eleventh-ranked Cincinnati was the lowest-ranked team without a victory over a team ranked higher this week.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

Through the powers of Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Clemens, the St. Louis Rams have assumed the position as last-ranked team in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings through Week 16.

Quarterback trouble marked the comeback victory Orlovsky led for Indianapolis against Houston, and the shutout Clemens' Rams suffered in Pittsburgh. All four teams in those games played without their starting quarterbacks. This is how things went down at the bottom.

The Colts' victory and the Rams' defeat did more than flip ESPN's Power Rankings at the bottom. Those outcomes also gave the Rams a chance to secure the No. 1 overall choice in the 2012 draft. One more Colts victory, this one against Jacksonville in Week 17, would make it happen if the Rams lost at home to San Francisco.

Our rankings remained unchanged near the top. The teams ranked first through sixth are the same. The playoff-bound Detroit Lions moved up two spots to No. 7.

And now, a closer look at the rankings heading into Week 17:

Falling (12): San Diego Chargers (-5), New York Jets (-4), Arizona Cardinals (-3), Seattle Seahawks (-3), Denver Broncos (-2), Houston Texans (-2), Chicago Bears (-1), Dallas Cowboys (-1), Kansas City Chiefs (-1), Miami Dolphins (-1), St. Louis Rams (-1), Washington Redskins (-1).

Rising (9): Oakland Raiders (+5), Tennessee Titans (+5), New York Giants (+4), Carolina Panthers (+3), Cincinnati Bengals (+3), Detroit Lions (+2), Buffalo Bills (+1), Indianapolis Colts (+1), Philadelphia Eagles (+1).

Unchanged (11): Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Deadlocked: We broke one tie this week. The Titans prevailed over the Jets on the third tiebreaker (which team won a game most recently). Head-to-head and overall record did not break the tie initially.

Like minds: All five voters ranked the Packers first and the Saints second. Voters varied by one spot across their ballots in votes for six teams (Ravens 4-5, Lions 7-8, Texans 8-9, Browns 28-29, Colts 31-32 and Rams 31-32).

Agree to disagree: The Eagles continued to produce the biggest disagreement as voters reconciled recently improved play with season-long struggles.

A look at the five teams generating high-low disparities of at least five spots in the rankings:

• Eagles (7): James Walker ranked them 13th, higher than any other voter ranked them. John Clayton ranked them 20th, lower than any voter ranked them.
• Panthers (6): Paul Kuharsky 19th, Walker 25th.
• Seahawks (6): Sando 14th, Kuharsky 20th.
• Cardinals (5): Fox 17th, Kuharsky 22nd.
• Jets (5): Fox 14th, Sando 19th.

Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the AFC North widened their lead over teams from the NFC North for highest-ranked division on average. AFC North teams climbed from 13.0 to 12.2 in average ranking. NFC North teams improved from 15.1 to 14.9 on average. NFC West teams slipped back one spot to No. 7 with an 18.0 average ranking, still ahead of the 20.9 for teams from the AFC South.


A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Chargers (-6), Cardinals (-5), Bengals (+5), Giants (+5).
• Clayton: Chargers (-5).
• Kuharsky: Raiders (+5).
• Walker: Chargers (-6), Titans (+5), Raiders (+6).
• Fox: Giants (+6).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

Chicago and Buffalo have each defeated a league-high five teams currently ranked higher than them in the rankings. Tenth-ranked Cincinnati is the lowest-ranked team without a victory over a team ranked higher.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

When the NFC West looks down, it sees not only the AFC South, but also the once-mighty NFC East. The view is more pleasing than at any point since divisional realignment in 2002.

Consider it a historic shift, a watershed moment, the week when light finally shined upon the no-longer-worst division in football -- except, of course, when power outages at Candlestick Park temporarily left San Francisco and Pittsburgh in the dark.

The 49ers' 20-3 victory over the Steelers on "Monday Night Football" capped a 3-1 week for the NFC West, one that moved up three teams from the division in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 16.

The 49ers moved up two spots to No. 3, passing Baltimore and New England. The Seahawks improved a league-high five spots to No. 15 after blowing out the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The Cardinals climbed two spots to No. 17 after beating Cleveland.

The St. Louis Rams remained 31st and ahead of Indianapolis even though I moved them down to No. 32 on my ballot. The other voters are forgiven. They likely had better things to do than watch every snap of St. Louis' 20-6 home defeat to an utterly unimpressive Cincinnati Bengals team.

Despite the Rams' low standing, NFC West teams ranked 16.8 on average, better than teams from the NFC East (17.5) and AFC South (21.6). NFC West teams ranked just below teams from the AFC East (16.5) and AFC West (16.4).

And now, a closer look at the rankings heading into Week 16:

Falling (11): Tennessee Titans (-7), Buffalo Bills (-4), Chicago Bears (-4), New York Giants (-4), Baltimore Ravens (-3), Oakland Raiders (-3), Denver Broncos (-2), New York Jets (-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (-2), Jacksonville Jaguars (-2), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1).

Rising (12): Seattle Seahawks (+5), Dallas Cowboys (+4), San Diego Chargers (+4), Kansas City Chiefs (+3), San Francisco 49ers (+3), Arizona Cardinals (+2), Cincinnati Bengals (+2), Detroit Lions (+2), Washington Redskins (+2), Cleveland Browns (+1), New England Patriots (+1), New Orleans Saints (+1).

Unchanged (8): Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams.

Deadlocked: We broke one tie this week. The Seahawks prevailed over the New York Giants at No. 15 based on the first tiebreaker, head-to-head results.

Like minds: All five voters ranked the Packers first, the Saints second and the Vikings 30th.

Agree to disagree: Walker continues to see the Eagles and Chargers as strong teams finally living up to their potential. Others continue to mark them down for overall struggles this season. That helps explain why Philly, more than any other team, invited polarizing views.

"I gave a lot of credence to how both teams are playing down the stretch in these important games," Walker said. "The Eagles and Chargers are two very dangerous teams right now. If either gets into the playoffs, look out."

Walker also kept New England ahead of the 49ers.

"The Patriots have won six straight games," he said. "The 49ers are 2-2 in their last four. San Francisco also lost the head-to-head with Baltimore. So I kept the Ravens ahead of the 49ers, too, despite an impressive win."

A look at the Eagles and the six other teams generating high-low disparities of at least six spots in the rankings:

• Eagles (8): Walker ranked them 13th, higher than any other voter ranked them. Sando, Clayton and Fox ranked them 21st, lower than any other voters ranked them.
• Cardinals (7): Sando 13th, Kuharsky 20th.
• Raiders (7): Clayton 15th, Kuharsky 22nd.
• Titans (7): Kuharsky 16th, Walker 23rd.
• Bengals (6): Fox 10th, Sando 16th.
• Chiefs (6): Sando 18th, Kuharsky 24th.
• Seahawks (6): Sando 12th, Walker 18th.

Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the AFC North (13.0 average) maintained the highest ranking on average, well ahead of teams from the NFC North (15.1). The AFC South was the lowest-rated division.

A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Titans (-9), Giants (-6), Cardinals (+5), Seahawks (+5), Chargers (+6), Chiefs (+9).
• Clayton: Bills (-5), Raiders (-5).
• Kuharsky: Seahawks (+5).
• Walker: Titans (-9), Chiefs (+6), Eagles (+6).
• Fox: Giants (-5).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

Sorry, NFC West fans, but it's tough to blame East Coast bias for this one.

A West Coast team, San Diego, bore responsibility for the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals losing ground in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings despite victories in Week 14.

Those unwilling to fault the Chargers can find the real culprit right here, on the AFC South blog. Paul Kuharsky moved up San Diego 11 spots on his ballot, enough to bump the Chargers past the Seahawks and Cardinals.

San Diego moved up three spots to No. 18. Arizona and Seattle, a combined 9-3 since Week 9, each fell one spot.

"It was a market adjustment," Kuharsky explained. "I probably dropped the Chargers too much last week based off the losing streak, even as they beat Jacksonville. They've played well the last two weeks and didn't deserve to be behind some of the teams I had them behind."

The Chargers do not play the Seahawks or Cardinals this season, but if they did right now, Kuharsky said he'd take San Diego on a neutral field. Voters had varied opinions on San Diego overall. James Walker (15th) and Kuharsky (16th) were on the high end. Ashley Fox and I had them down at No. 20.

The Cardinals and Seahawks weren't the only NFC West teams falling in the rankings. The San Francisco 49ers dropped three spots to No. 6 after losing at Arizona. Thus ended an eight-week stretch with the 49ers ranked between second and fourth.

New Orleans, Pittsburgh and New England moved past the 49ers, but a San Francisco victory over the Steelers in Week 15 would change perceptions once again.

And now, a closer look at the rankings heading into Week 15:

Rising (11): New York Giants (+4), Jacksonville Jaguars (+3), Philadelphia Eagles (+3), San Diego Chargers (+3), Carolina Panthers (+1), Denver Broncos (+1), Detroit Lions (+1), New England Patriots (+1), New Orleans Saints (+1), New York Jets (+1), Pittsburgh Steelers (+1).

Falling (11): Dallas Cowboys (-5), San Francisco 49ers (-3), Buffalo Bills (-2), Kansas City Chiefs (-2), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2), Arizona Cardinals (-1), Cincinnati Bengals (-1), Cleveland Browns (-1), Miami Dolphins (-1), Oakland Raiders (-1), Seattle Seahawks (-1).

Unchanged (10): Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins.

Deadlocked: We broke one tie this week. The Titans prevailed over the Cowboys at No. 13 based on the third tiebreaker (which team won most recently). The first tiebreaker (head-to-head results) did not come into play. The second tiebreaker (overall record) was indecisive.

Like minds: All five voters ranked the Packers first, the Ravens second, the Rams 31st and the Colts 32nd. Four voters ranked the Saints third and the Steelers fourth.

Agree to disagree: We all knew the Raiders were likely going to lose on the road against the unbeaten Packers. John Clayton decided against penalizing the Raiders too heavily. He moved them down only one spot to No. 10.

Kuharsky dropped them from 18th to 21st, leaving an 11-spot gap between highest and lowest votes for Oakland. No team generated a wider disparity among voters.

A look at the eight teams generating disagreements of at least five spots:

• Raiders (11): Clayton 10th, Kuharsky 21st.
• Titans (7): Sando 10th, Fox 17th.
• Redskins (7): Sando 22nd, Fox 29th.
• Chargers (5): Walker 15th, Sando and Fox 20th.
• Seahawks (5): Sando 17th, Kuharsky 22nd.
• Bills (5): Clayton and Fox 21st, Sando 26th.
• Dolphins (5): Kuharsky 20th, Sando and Clayton 25th.
• Jaguars (5): Sando 23rd, Fox 28th.

Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the AFC North (12.4 average) maintained the highest ranking on average, well ahead of teams from the NFC North (14.8). The AFC South was the lowest-rated division.


A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Chiefs (-5), Eagles (+5), Jaguars (+7).
• Clayton: None.
• Kuharsky: Chargers (+11).
• Walker: Eagles (+5).
• Fox: Cowboys (-6).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

None of our top six teams this week has defeated a higher-ranked team. Houston is the only top-10 team with a victory over a higher-ranked opponent. The seventh-ranked Texans defeated the fourth-ranked Steelers.

It's somewhat uncommon for more than a few teams to rank lower than three of the opponents they have defeated. The Raiders, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs, Redskins and Browns fall into that category this week.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

The New Orleans Saints smacked around the New York Giants in memorable fashion Monday night, amassing 577 yards during a 49-24 victory.

Their reward: a fall from third to fourth in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 13.

What in the name of Sean Payton's torn MCL is going on here? The answer is pretty simple, actually. Baltimore's victory over San Francisco on Thanksgiving moved the Ravens past the Saints and 49ers for the second spot in the rankings. That forced the Saints down a notch even though they won impressively.

"This wasn’t an indictment of the Saints by any means," voter James Walker said. "It was more about the big win for Baltimore. No question, the Ravens deserved the jump after beating the 49ers. I considered keeping New Orleans at No. 3, but the 49ers are 9-2 and represented themselves pretty well in a loss."

The Saints remained third on Paul Kuharsky's ballot and fourth on mine.

Walker and John Clayton moved up the Ravens from fourth to second on their ballots, keeping the 49ers above the Saints. Ashley Fox took a similar approach, but she also moved up Pittsburgh one spot to fourth. That meant the Saints fell two spots on her ballot, from third to fifth. Kuharsky moved up the Ravens five spots to No. 2; he was the only one to drop the 49ers two places.

Voters delivered on promises to knock down San Francisco on their ballots if the 49ers failed to win at Baltimore on Thanksgiving. The fall was not a wholesale repudiation of the 49ers, however. Far from it. San Francisco dropped only one spot to No. 3 in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 13.

That is as low as the 49ers figure to fall for the next couple weeks, anyway. They're home against St. Louis this week with a chance to clinch the NFC West title. They visit Arizona the next week before returning home for a Monday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec. 19.

The rankings remained relatively stable this week. The Chicago Bears were our biggest fallers, dropping five spots. No team climbed more than four places.

A closer look at the rankings heading into Week 13 ...

Rising (10): Oakland Raiders (+4), Baltimore Ravens (+3), Washington Redskins (+3), Arizona Cardinals (+2), Atlanta Falcons (+2), Carolina Panthers (+2), Dallas Cowboys (+1), Denver Broncos (+1), Houston Texans (+1), Kansas City Chiefs (+1).

Falling (13): Chicago Bears (-5), Cleveland Browns (-3), New York Giants (-2), Detroit Lions (-1), Jacksonville Jaguars (-1), Miami Dolphins (-1), Minnesota Vikings (-1), New Orleans Saints (-1), Pittsburgh Steelers (-1), San Diego Chargers (-1), San Francisco 49ers (-1), Seattle Seahawks (-1), Tennessee Titans (-1).

Unchanged (9): Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Deadlocked: We broke two ties this week. Dallas prevailed over Atlanta at No. 8 based on the final tiebreaker, previous ranking. Washington edged Seattle at No. 23 based on the first tiebreaker head-to-head results.

Like minds: All five voters ranked the Packers first, Ravens second, Patriots sixth and Colts last. Four voters agreed on where to rank the Steelers, Chargers and Rams.

Agree to disagree: The Cardinals produced the largest disparity between highest and lowest votes. A look at the teams producing disparities of at least six spots:

• Cardinals (7): Fox 19th, Sando and Walker 26th.
• Bucs (6): Walker 19th, Sando 25th.
• Redskins (6): Sando 20th, Kuharsky and Fox 26th.
• Seahawks (6): Sando and Fox 21st, Kuharsky 27th.
• Dolphins (6): Sando and Kuharsky 22nd, Clayton 28th.

Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the AFC North retained their status as the highest-ranked by division on average, well ahead of teams from the NFC North (11.2 to 13.5 average rankings). The AFC South was again last.


I moved up the Bills five spots even though they lost. That had less to do with the Bills than it had to do with the unimpressive teams ranked in the same general area. Too many teams deserved to move down. The Bills, with five victories, appealed by comparison.

A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Bucs (-7), Giants (-5), Bills (+5).
• Clayton: Raiders (+5).
• Kuharsky: Bears (-6), Ravens (+5), Dolphins (+5).
• Walker: Giants (-5).
• Fox: Lions (-5), Bucs (-5), Texans (+5), Cardinals (+8).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

This week, none of the teams ranked among the top six has defeated a higher-ranked team. Buffalo and Miami are the only teams with more than two victories over teams currently ranked higher. Each has three.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

The San Francisco 49ers have held on to the No. 2 spot for a fourth consecutive week in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 12.

Our panelists appear unsympathetic to their plight traveling across the country to Baltimore on a short week. It's looking like the 49ers will need a victory over the Ravens to maintain their status in the rankings. This is already the 49ers' highest ranking so late in a season since ESPN.com began archiving power rankings histories.

"If the Ravens win, I'd move them ahead of the Niners," voter Paul Kuharsky said.

Another voter, James Walker, put it this way: "It's simple: San Francisco has to beat Baltimore to stay No. 2. If the Ravens win, I'm more likely to put them at No. 2 over the 49ers. Head-to-head means a lot. That's why they play the games."

With a No. 2 ranking, there's almost nowhere for the 49ers to go but down. Almost ...

"It's possible they could actually move up with a win, because Green Bay doesn't exactly have a gimme with Detroit," Ashley Fox said, alluding to a scenario that would surely stir passionate conversation.

The top four teams remained unchanged from last week. Baltimore replaced Chicago at No. 5 after the Bears won a game but lost their starting quarterback, Jay Cutler, to a thumb injury requiring surgery.

And now, a closer look at the rankings heading into Week 12 ...

Rising (12): Cleveland Browns (+4), Miami Dolphins (+4), Philadelphia Eagles (+4), Dallas Cowboys (+3), Atlanta Falcons (+2), Denver Broncos (+2), New England Patriots (+2), Oakland Raiders (+2), Baltimore Ravens (+1), Carolina Panthers (+1), Houston Texans (+1), Seattle Seahawks (+1).

Falling (12): New York Giants (-5), Arizona Cardinals (-4), Jacksonville Jaguars (-3), San Diego Chargers (-3), Buffalo Bills (-2), Chicago Bears (-2), Cincinnati Bengals (-2), Minnesota Vikings (-2), Kansas City Chiefs (-1), New York Jets (-1), St. Louis Rams (-1), Tennessee Titans (-1).

Unchanged (8): Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins.

Deadlocked: We broke one tie this week. Tampa Bay prevailed over San Diego at No. 20 on the third tiebreaker (which team won a game most recently). Head-to-head results and overall record did not break the tie.

Like minds: All five panelists ranked the Packers first, the 49ers second and the Colts last -- same as last week.

Agree to disagree: The Texans generated the largest gap between high and low votes among panelists. Quarterback injuries played a role in disparities for Houston and Chicago. Kuharsky gave both teams the benefit of the doubt pending additional evidence, but he views the teams differently.

"I have a lot more faith in Matt Leinart and what's around him than I do in Caleb Hanie and what's around him," Kuharsky said. "In both instances, I didn't want to score the teams down ahead of time. I put them where they are now, not where I think they'll be. My forecast would be that the Texans still win their division while the Bears lose out in a wild-card bid."

A look at the five teams producing disparities of at least six spots between highest and lowest votes:

• Texans (7): Fox ranked them fifth, Walker ranked them 12th.
• Bears (6): Kuharsky fifth, Walker 11th.
• Lions (6): Walker seventh, Sando 13th.
• Seahawks (6): Sando 19th, Kuharsky 25th.
• Cardinals (6): Kuharsky 24th, Sando 30th.

Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the AFC North overtook teams from the NFC North for the highest average ranking among divisions. The NFC West, 6-2 over the past two weeks, held on to the seventh spot, ahead of teams from the AFC South.


A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Cardinals (-8), Bills (-6), Browns (+5), Dolphins (+7).
• Clayton: Giants (-6).
• Kuharsky: Browns (+5), Eagles (+6).
• Walker: Bears (-7), Browns (+5), Eagles (+7).
• Fox: Texans (-7), Bills (-6), Cardinals (-5), Jaguars (-5), Rams (-5), Falcons (+5), Dolphins (+5), Eagles (+7).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

This week, No. 13 Cincinnati and last-ranked Indianapolis are the only teams with zero victories over teams ranked higher than them. Denver, ranked 17th, and Buffalo, ranked 19th, are the only teams with more than two victories over teams currently ranked higher than them.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

Here's a nightmare scenario for Arizona Cardinals fans: Kevin Kolb flounders while a reborn Matt Leinart leads the Houston Texans deep into the playoffs.

The 7-3 Texans' outlook minus injured starting quarterback Matt Schaub framed the biggest debate our voters faced in putting together ESPN's NFL Power Rankings through Week 10.

John Clayton ranked them fourth and Ashley Fox had them fifth. Paul Kuharsky ranked them eighth. I had Houston 11th and James Walker voted them 14th despite four consecutive double-digit victories and a No. 8 ranking last week.

"I was conflicted on the Texans," Fox said, "and decided to rank them based on past performance, rather than the potential for future failure. We will see."

Kuharsky, our AFC South blogger, suspects Leinart could outperform expectations fewer than two years after the Cardinals decided they were better off with Derek Anderson, John Skelton and Max Hall.

"I'm not going to jump to write off the Texans with the Schaub news," Kuharsky said. "Gary Kubiak knows quarterbacks and he loves Leinart."

Cardinals fans would be happy to offer their Leinart video collections. But as ESPN Stats & Information pointed out, Leinart has a slightly above average 52.9 Total QBR on 147 plays since 2008, counting playoffs. He completed 21 of 31 passes for 220 yards and a 73.9 QBR against Tennessee in his last regular-season start in 2009.

"The Texans missed on their last try at a quality backup with Dan Orlovsky," Kuharsky said. "I don't think they'll miss twice in a row. I expect they have enough to win with Leinart playing. But, like everyone, I need to see him play."

And now, a closer look at the rankings heading into Week 11 ...

Rising (12): Arizona Cardinals (+6), Oakland Raiders (+5), Tennessee Titans (+5), Chicago Bears (+4), Denver Broncos (+4), New England Patriots (+4), Seattle Seahawks (+4), Dallas Cowboys (+3), Jacksonville Jaguars (+2), Miami Dolphins (+2), New Orleans Saints (+1), Pittsburgh Steelers (+1)

Falling (15): Philadelphia Eagles (-6), Carolina Panthers (-5), Washington Redskins (-4), Baltimore Ravens (-3), Buffalo Bills (-3), Cleveland Browns (-3), Detroit Lions (-3), Minnesota Vikings (-3), New York Jets (-3), Kansas City Chiefs (-2), Tampa Bay Bucs (-2), Cincinnati Bengals (-1), Houston Texans (-1), New York Giants (-1), San Diego Chargers (-1)

Unchanged (5): Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams.

Deadlocked: We broke two ties this week. Cincinnati prevailed over Dallas at No. 11 based on the second tiebreaker, overall record. Denver prevailed over Tampa Bay at No. 19 on the third tiebreaker, which team won most recently. The first tiebreaker, head-to-head results, did not come into play.

Like minds: All five panelists ranked the Packers first, the 49ers second and the Colts last.

Agree to disagree: Last week, eight spots separated the highest and lowest votes for the Bears. That margin shrunk to five this week, with Chicago moving into the top five for the first time this season. Walker and I ranked the Bears fourth. I've had them in the top eight for a month after admittedly underrating them earlier in the season.

"The Bears are going to be the playoff team no one wants to face in January," Walker said. "They’re not catching the Packers in the standings, so Chicago will be a dangerous wild card. The Bears match up with anyone because they can beat you with offense, defense or special teams."

A look at the eight teams, including Chicago, producing disparities of at least five spots between highest and lowest votes:

• Texans (10): Clayton fourth, Walker 14th.
• Browns (7): Clayton 24th, Sando and Walker 31st.
• Redskins (6): Clayton 23rd, Walker and Fox 29th.
• Bears (5): Sando and Walker fourth, Fox ninth.
• Chiefs (5): Fox 19th, Sando 24th.
• Cardinals (5): Sando, Kuharsky and Fox 22nd, Clayton 27th.
• Seahawks (5): Sando 21st, Clayton and Kuharsky 26th.
• Vikings (5): Kuharsky and Walker 25th, Clayton and Fox 30th.

Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the NFC North fell from 10.7 to 11.3 in average ranking, but that was still good enough to keep the top spot among divisions, well ahead of the AFC North (12.5 average ranking). The NFC West, coming off its first 4-0 week since realignment in 2002, stands seventh this week, ahead of the AFC South.


A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Browns (-9), Eagles (-5), Cardinals (+7), Cowboys (+7), Raiders (+7), Seahawks (+7).
• Clayton: Ravens (-5), Panthers (-5), Lions (-5), Vikings (-5), Eagles (-5), Bears (+6), Titans (+6).
• Kuharsky: Eagles (-8), Panthers (-5), Lions (-5), Cardinals (+5), Bears (+6), Patriots (+8), Cowboys (+9), Broncos (+9).
• Walker: Eagles (-8), Redskins (-7), Cardinals (+5), Broncos (+5), Bears (+6), Raiders (+6), Seahawks (+7).
• Fox: Panthers (-6), Vikings (-6), Jets (-6), Redskins (-6), Cowboys (+5), Cardinals (+7).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

Baltimore is the only one of our top eight teams with a victory over a team ranked higher this week. The sixth-ranked Ravens own two victories over the fourth-ranked Steelers. The Chargers are 18th and have not defeated any of the teams ranked higher than them. They are the only team ranked between 12th and 31st without at least one victory over a higher-ranked team.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

So much for the AFC East.

New England and Buffalo suffered the largest drops in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 10, with the Patriots leaving the top 10 for the first time since they were 11th back in Week 14 of the 2009 season. The seven-spot drop to No. 12 left New England with its lowest ranking since the 2008 team was 17th without Tom Brady.

The Patriots lost a little mystique Sunday when the New York Giants ended Brady's 31-game home winning streak during the regular season. The outcome caught at least one of our Power Rankings voters by surprise. AFC East blogger James Walker had left the Giants 16th on his previous three ballots, but he moved them up to seventh this week and sought forgiveness.

"I apologize for under-voting the Giants," Walker said. "I thought they were overrated and didn’t have a true identity. But New York keeps winning and beat the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. I will not underrate them any longer."

The Bills joined the Patriots at 5-3 and in dropping seven spots from last week. Buffalo's No. 14 ranking is the Bills' lowest since sitting at No. 16 heading into Week 3.

And now, a closer look at the latest rankings ...

Rising (12): Dallas Cowboys (+6), Denver Broncos (+5), Cincinnati Bengals (+4), Houston Texans (+3), New York Giants (+3), New Orleans Saints (+2), New York Jets (+2), Arizona Cardinals (+1), Baltimore Ravens (+1), Chicago Bears (+1), Detroit Lions (+1), Tampa Bay Bucs (+1).

Falling (13): Buffalo Bills (-7), New England Patriots (-7), Oakland Raiders (-4), Pittsburgh Steelers (-2), San Diego Chargers (-2), Atlanta Falcons (-1), Carolina Panthers (-1), Cleveland Browns (-1), Jacksonville Jaguars (-1), Kansas City Chiefs (-1), Minnesota Vikings (-1), Seattle Seahawks (-1), St. Louis Rams (-1).

Unchanged (7): Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins.

Deadlocked: We broke two ties this week. New Orleans edged Pittsburgh at No. 4 on the third tiebreaker (which team won most recently). Cincinnati edged the Jets for the 10th spot on the second tiebreaker (better record). The first tiebreaker, head-to-head results, did not come into play.

Like minds: All five panelists ranked the Packers first. Four ranked the Texans eighth. All five ranked the Redskins 22nd or 23rd. All five ranked the Colts last.

Agree to disagree: Eight spots separated the highest and lowest votes for the Bears. A look at the seven teams producing disparities of at least six spots between highest and lowest votes:

• Bears (8): Sando ranked them sixth, higher than any other voter ranked them. Clayton ranked them 14th, lower than any other voter ranked them.
• Bengals (6): Clayton seventh, Walker 13th.
• Jets (6): Fox seventh, Sando 13th.
• Patriots (6): Walker eighth, Kuharsky 14th.
• Cowboys (6): Walker 14th, Kuharsky 20th.
• Buccaneers (6): Sando 15th, Kuharsky 21st.
• Broncos (6): Fox 22nd, Kuharsky 28th.
• Steelers (6): Sando, Kuharsky and Walker fourth, Clayton ninth.

Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the NFC North rank 10.7 on average, just ahead of teams from the AFC North (10.8). The NFC South is third at 15, well behind the top two.

A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Bills (-7), Patriots (-7), Giants (+5).
• Clayton: Raiders (-9), Patriots (-6), Steelers (-5), Jets (+5), Eagles (+5).
• Kuharsky: Bills (-9), Patriots (-7), Eagles (-5), Falcons (+5).
• Walker: Bills (-9), Patriots (-5), Ravens (+5), Cowboys (+5), Broncos (+7), Giants (+9).
• Fox: Patriots (-6), Chargers (-6), Cowboys (+6), Texans (+6).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

Houston is the only one of our top 11 teams that has defeated a team ranked higher than it. The Texans beat Pittsburgh. The 17th-ranked Chargers are the lowest-ranked team with a record of .500 or better and zero victories over any teams ranked higher than them.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

Alex Smith and the San Francisco 49ers outrank Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings entering Week 9.

Yeah, we saw that coming back in Week 1.

The 49ers were 26th then. The Patriots were first. Not now.

San Francisco, at 6-1, edged 6-2 Pittsburgh for the No. 2 spot behind Green Bay in the latest rankings. Both teams received two second-place votes, one third-place vote and two fourth-place votes. The first tiebreaker, head-to-head results, did not come into play. The 49ers prevailed on the second tiebreaker, overall record.

"I think the 49ers have earned it with their record," said voter Paul Kuharsky, who joined me in ranking the 49ers second. "I'm not sure I'd expect them to beat, say, New England or New Orleans, but I can't let my affection for some teams like the Pats and Saints this season over-influence my picture of right now."

Having watched the 49ers every week and the Saints some weeks, including in their unfathomable defeat to previously winless St. Louis, I think Frank Gore could rush for 200 yards against New Orleans. I think the 49ers would overwhelm the Saints' offensive line and handle them on special teams. More on San Francisco in a bit.

Five of the top six teams from last week changed position in the latest rankings.

The 7-0 Packers remained first following their bye. The 49ers moved up two spots from fourth after beating Cleveland for their fifth consecutive victory outside the NFC West. The Steelers moved up two spots to third after beating the Patriots. Baltimore moved up two spots to fourth, trailing Pittsburgh despite a dominating victory over the Steelers in Week 1.

The Patriots and Saints each tumbled three spots following defeats, but voter James Walker left New England third on his ballot. He joined Ashley Fox in ranking the Steelers second. John Clayton ranked Baltimore second and the 49ers third.

"Beating Tom Brady and the Patriots carries a lot of weight," Walker said in explaining why he ranked the Steelers two spots higher than the 49ers. "I don't think that's something the 49ers can do. Plus, the Steelers are more of a proven commodity, coming off a Super Bowl appearance."

Fox spent Sunday in Pittsburgh and came away impressed. She pointed to the Steelers' ability to keep Brady off the field.

"Had they been able to score touchdowns in the red zone, the game would've been a rout," Fox said. "It was as impressive a performance as I've seen so far this season. That's why I moved Pittsburgh up."

The 49ers were second on my ballot because they've produced a consistent formula for winning. They run the ball effectively, play phenomenal defense, dominate on special teams and keep turnovers to a minimum.

Questions about Smith's limitations at quarterback are valid. So far, however, he has come through. He threw the winning touchdown pass in the final two minutes to beat Detroit at Ford Field. At Philadelphia, he completed nine of nine passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns during the third quarter as the 49ers overcame a 20-point deficit to win.

And now, a closer look at the latest rankings ...

Rising (11): Philadelphia Eagles (+6), Minnesota Vikings (+5), Kansas City Chiefs (+3), Atlanta Falcons (+2), Baltimore Ravens (+2), Cincinnati Bengals (+2), New York Giants (+2), Pittsburgh Steelers (+2), San Francisco 49ers (+2), Houston Texans (+1), St. Louis Rams (+1).

Falling (13): San Diego Chargers (-6), Dallas Cowboys (-3), New England Patriots (-3), New Orleans Saints (-3), Carolina Panthers (-2), Oakland Raiders (-2), Tampa Bay Bucs (-2), Washington Redskins (-2), Arizona Cardinals (-1), Denver Broncos (-1), Jacksonville Jaguars (-1), Seattle Seahawks (-1), Tennessee Titans (-1).

Unchanged (8): Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets.

Deadlocked: We broke two ties this week. The 49ers prevailed over the Steelers at No. 2. The Giants edged the Bears at No. 9, also on the second tiebreaker (better record).

Like minds: All five panelists had the Packers first. Four of five panelists -- everyone but Fox -- had the Dolphins 31st and the Colts 32nd. She had them flipped.

Agree to disagree: The Eagles and Raiders produced the largest disparity between high and low votes. Kuharsky ranked the Eagles 10th, 10 spots higher than Clayton ranked them.

"The Eagles have one of the biggest up arrows of anyone right now," Kuharsky said. "They are up because they are hot and look like the team I had ranked high at the start."

A look at the seven teams producing disparities of at least six spots between highest and lowest votes:

• Eagles (10): Kuharsky 10th, Clayton 20th.
• Raiders (10): Clayton 11th, Sando 20th.
• Jets (9): Fox seventh, Kuharsky 16th.
• Giants (8): Clayton eighth, Walker 16th.
• Chargers (8): Fox 11th, Kuharsky 19th.
• Lions (7): Walker fifth, Fox 12th.
• Bills (6): Kuharsky fourth, Fox 10th.

Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: The NFC North holds a narrow lead over the AFC North for the highest ranking on average, 10.9 to 11.0. The AFC East is third at 14.0. The NFC West lags at No. 8, behind the AFC South.


A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Chargers (-6).
• Clayton: Chargers (-9), Bengals (+10).
• Kuharsky: Patriots (-5), Saints (-5), Vikings (+6), Eagles (+10).
• Walker: Cowboys (-6), Chargers (-6), Saints (-5), Bengals (+5), Texans (+5), Eagles (+6).
• Fox: Cowboys (-6).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

Baltimore, Buffalo and the Giants are the only top-10 teams with victories over teams ranked higher than them this season. Oakland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville are the only teams with two victories over higher-ranked teams. No team owns three such victories.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

The San Francisco 49ers went into Week 8 ranked fourth in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings.

They defeated the 24th-ranked Cleveland Browns. Top-ranked Green Bay did not play. Second-ranked New England lost at fifth-ranked Pittsburgh. Third-ranked New Orleans lost at 30th-ranked St. Louis.

The question: Should the 49ers move up to second? What about the Steelers?

ESPN's Merril Hoge rolled his eyes when Antonio Pierce suggested the 49ers would finish 12-4 and earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. Hoge said he thought the 49ers would come up short against elite teams, including the Saints. He pointed to the weak NFC West.

"I'm sorry, Merril," Pierce said. "I'm going to have to cut you off. They have only beaten one team in their division. The other five wins, outside their division. Tampa Bay, Detroit. They've played some good teams and put a smacking on them."

I'm inclined to rank the 49ers second behind Green Bay this week. Would they beat the Steelers the way Ben Roethlisberger is playing right now? Would they have beaten New England, as the Steelers did Sunday? I'm not sure, but they're 6-1 overall, 3-0 on the road and own multiple victories over winning teams, including Detroit, Tampa Bay and Cincinnati.