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How to value Alex Smith's performance stood among the most debated subjects on the NFC West blog last season.

Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.

The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.

Total QBR, the metric ESPN's Analytics Team developed to more fully assess how quarterbacks contributed to winning, supported the 49ers' valuation.

Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.

The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.

Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.

The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.

Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.

These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.

"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."

The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.

"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.

"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."

I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.

For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.

My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.

This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.

INDIANAPOLIS -- The New York Giants were not scheduled to arrive on the Super Bowl scene til Monday afternoon. The Eli Manning hype -- or would that be anticipated hype? -- was already grating on one San Francisco 49ers fan. Patrick from California thinks analysts are missing the point when they praise Manning and criticize the 49ers' Alex Smith for their roles in the NFC Championship Game. "Their stats were virtually identical," Patrick wrote, "but with the win, Eli is the hero? Give me a break. ... Yes, Smith probably had more plays there to make, but the [fawning] over Manning has got way out of control, especially on ESPN."

Mike Sando: It's going to be a rough week for 49ers fans, knowing how close San Francisco came to reaching the Super Bowl. We've done the Smith-Manning breakdown and concluded both players struggled against rugged defenses and amid difficult weather conditions. Manning has earned the benefit of the doubt by winning big games while carrying his team's offense to a larger degree, a subject NFC East blogger Dan Graziano and I discussed here Monday.

"I just think they were asked to do two different things this year," Graziano said. "Alex Smith was not asked to throw for 300-400 yards a game. The 49ers had a running game, had a great defense. The Giants for most of the year did not have those things, so Eli Manning was the guy who had to air it out to win the Giants' games. They played the same position, but they did two different jobs. In terms of the hype Eli is getting, he is in the Super Bowl, and it's his second one in five years. And he is one of the main reasons the Giants are here."

Smith's performance during the divisional-round victory against New Orleans proved he could do more than just manage the offense. He wasn't as good against the Giants. Manning also struggled in the NFC title game, but he was facing a much tougher defense. Manning also showed he could throw with better command in those rainy, windy conditions. Smith seemed tentative. The 49ers had plenty of chances to win this game.

They had two clear chances to pick off Manning and cut off the hype. Sorry, Patrick. It's going to be a rough week for you.

Alex Smith finished the San Francisco 49ers' two-game playoff run with five touchdown passes, no interceptions and a 101.0 NFL passer rating.

The seventh-year quarterback was a primary reason -- perhaps the primary reason -- San Francisco won a shootout victory over Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in the divisional round.

Smith did enough to give the 49ers a strong chance against the New York Giants in the NFC Championship Game, too. He certainly was not the goat. But Smith also missed opportunities, notably on third down and when he overthrew a wide-open Kyle Williams for a potential touchdown.

Despite 73- and 28-yard scoring passes to Vernon Davis, Smith emerged from the game with his fifth-lowest Total QBR score of the season, a 30.6 out of 100. That was by far his lowest QBR score of the season at home, where he had played at a Pro Bowl level this season.

The Giants' Eli Manning fared about the same (30.9). Both quarterbacks struggled against strong defenses and amid tough weather conditions. Manning took six sacks, fumbled and averaged 5.4 yards per pass attempt (the Giants averaged 3.9 yards per play overall, their lowest figure since 2008).

Smith's QBR lagged largely because the 49ers converted just once in 13 chances on third down, a problem area for the 49ers all season.

The 49ers' weakness at wide receiver stood out during this game, in my view, but Smith also could have done more.

NFL Films' Greg Cosell took a closer look at the coaches' video and found evidence Michael Crabtree was correct in suggesting the team had opportunities downfield. Cosell pointed to the 49ers' first third-down play of the game. Crabtree got open on a sail route.

"Smith, with no pressure in the pocket, did not pull the trigger," Cosell wrote. "It was a throw that had to be made. The result of the play was an incompletion on a late check-down to Frank Gore."

Cosell saw a more confident 49ers quarterback against the Saints. Smith said the Giants were effective in mixing up their coverages to a greater degree than when the teams played in Week 10. He also said changing weather conditions, specifically second-half winds, bothered him. Those factors could have made Smith tentative.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

History cares little about how Joe Montana and Dwight Clark played before combining for "The Catch" to send the San Francisco 49ers into the Super Bowl.

That single moment defined the 49ers' 1981 season. It still defines Clark and, to a degree, Montana as well.

The fact that Montana finished that NFC Championship Game against Dallas with three touchdowns, three interceptions and an 81.4 NFL passer rating is irrelevant.

Thirty years later, Alex Smith's 28-yard touchdown run and winning 14-yard scoring pass to Vernon Davis -- all in the final 2:11 of the 49ers' 36-32 playoff victory over New Orleans -- have given NFL history two more iconic plays.

We know those plays were pivotal and Smith deserves credit for his role in them. The question is always, how much?

Not long after the game, several people wanted to know what ESPN's quarterback metric said about the most significant performance of Smith's NFL career.

Hey, I wonder if Total QBR gave Smith his due. It did, but probably to an unsatisfying extent.

The figure was 78.1 out of 100, third-best in the divisional round, behind those for Tom Brady (95.1) and Eli Manning (88.8). Aaron Rodgers (66.9) and Drew Brees (62.0) also fared above the 50-point level representing average play.

"If Smith only had a [78.1] QBR, that system is horrible," came one response. "Four TDs and no picks?"

I'd give Smith a perfect score for coming through in epic fashion. QBR measured Smith's performance on different terms. To what degree did his play affect win probability throughout the game?

On the bad side, Smith took three of his four sacks on third down. He fumbled twice, losing one on third down. On the good side, he won the game with clutch fourth-quarter throws, including well down the field. His QBR for the game jumped from 25.7 to 64.2 on his 28-yard scoring run. It rose to 78.1 with his 14-yard pass to Davis for the win.

Better yet for Smith, his fourth-quarter QBR was 99.7, the third-highest for any player in a fourth quarter this season. His score for the game was his fourth-highest of the season. The team is 12-0 when his QBR exceeds 41.4 (50 is average).

The first chart shows Smith's QBR scores by game in descending order.

The chart below shows scores for all quarterbacks in the divisional round. The columns with "EPA" show how many expected points were added through the quarterback's contributions. Every situation carries a certain amount of expected points. A negative play reduces the expected points for a given situation.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

The San Francisco 49ers' fourth-quarter comeback victories at Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit and Seattle obscured an important part of quarterback Alex Smith's game this season. He was actually much better at home.

That came into focus for an NFC West blog regular, Crimsoncrew, upon reading an earlier item about Smith and the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees. Smith's NFL passer rating at home is 99.8 (82.7 road). His Total QBR, which also takes into account sacks and game situations, stands at 71.6 out of 100 -- a league-high 42.3 points higher than his 29.3 QBR on the road.

"Other than the Cowboys game in Week 2, which was still a decent QBR performance, Smith has been at or above Pro Bowl level in every home game," Crimsoncrew wrote. "While I'm still a bit skeptical of the mysterious formula that is the QBR, in Smith's case I absolutely believe it's more accurate than passer rating because of the number of sacks he takes rather than taking chances with the ball. Despite that, Smith has more than twice as many TDs (12 to 5), only one more INT (3 to 2), and takes less than half as many sacks (13 to 31) at home as he does on the road."

Crimsoncrew's comments initiated a call to John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who did the research appearing in the chart. I then asked Smith about the disparity during the 49ers' media availability session Tuesday.

"It's a great question," Smith said, unaware that Crimsoncrew was the source behind it. "Obviously, crowd noise plays into that, especially on third down, when you’re trying to throw the ball on the road. Anywhere you go, you're going to be dealing with crowd noise. So, at home, to be able to use the cadence and be able to communicate a little easier verbally, obviously helps. I think that might play into it."

The 49ers are home against New Orleans in the divisional playoffs Saturday. Thank you, Crimsoncrew, for advancing the conversation.

One way to evaluate a strategic decision is to view it from opponents' perspectives.

Would a rival fear the decision or possibly even endorse it?

That lens can help us view more clearly the decisions Arizona and San Francisco face regarding their incumbent quarterbacks.

The Cardinals will most likely pay a $7 million bonus to Kevin Kolb, giving him another chance in 2012. The 49ers will most likely re-sign Alex Smith to a deal that makes him the starter for at least another season.

These are relatively straightforward decisions. Fans in Arizona might question whether or not Kolb can be better than backup John Skelton. Smith's harshest critics can find fault with him even as the 49ers head to the playoffs with a 13-3 record and the NFC's second seed.

But by all accounts, Kolb and Smith are coming back in the absence of superior alternatives. How should their opponents feel? Let's head to the polls. First, be sure to check out your handy voter's guide.

Kolb fear factor

The Cardinals' opponents have to feel good about Arizona going though another season with Kolb and Skelton as the primary quarterbacks. Both quarterbacks showed promise at times, but neither demonstrated consistency.

Coach Ken Whisenhunt has said he'll promote competition. Skelton has done enough to push Kolb for the job, at least. But the money Kolb is making requires the Cardinals to find out for sure whether or not they can win with him.

Arizona went 1-6 with Kolb to open the season. The team won his final two starts, but Kolb hardly played in one of them, leaving Skelton as the quarterback of record for the team's 21-19 victory over San Francisco.

In fairness to Kolb, Skelton benefited from an improved defense later in the season. It's a stretch to say the Cardinals would have been appreciably better than 1-6 had Skelton started to open the season. It's also unfair to Skelton if we assume Kolb would have performed as well late in games.

Either way, the rest of the NFC West can live with a Kolb-Skelton combination for 2012, in my view.

Smith fear factor

The 49ers are 16-5 in Smith's past 21 starts. Smith has 25 touchdown passes with six interceptions during that span. Every team in the NFC West would take that production.

At the very least, opponents should fear the 49ers with Smith at quarterback based simply on those results.

Skeptics persist.

NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell differentiates Smith from most other playoff quarterbacks, explaining how the 49ers have won without leaning on him much.

ESPN's quarterback evaluation metric, Total QBR, has given Smith high marks most of the time recently. But Smith's season-long performance score lags below average. This seemed strange given the 49ers' five fourth-quarter comeback victories. Any stat rewarding QBs for improving win probability would seemingly have to like those results.

But as Alok Pattani of ESPN's analytics team explained, the comeback against the New York Giants was from only one point behind. Another featured two field goals from David Akers. The one at Philadelphia required a missed Eagles field-goal try, Frank Gore's strong running and the fumble Justin Smith forced on Jeremy Maclin.

"It's not just the winning and losing, but how much Smith contributed to the winning at the time of the game where the result was most likely to be decided," Pattani said.

Also, Smith's four lowest-rated games counted toward his season-long score more than his six highest-rated games based on how many plays were involved and whether or not the outcomes were in serious doubt.

OK, all done. Time to vote.

Note: I've excluded St. Louis and Seattle from this discussion because those teams' quarterback situations are different. The Rams' Sam Bradford is under contract for the long term. The Seahawks' Tarvaris Jackson is under contract for backup money as the team considers long-term options through the draft.

NFC West quarterbacks took a beating in 2011 -- not just with the 203 sacks they absorbed, either.

We've heard the criticisms and levied them from time to time. Alex Smith is a merely game manager, John Skelton lacks accuracy, Kevin Kolb lacks pocket awareness, Tarvaris Jackson doesn't produce well enough in the clutch, etc.

The position was more asset than liability within the division Sunday. Smith, Skelton and the St. Louis Rams' Kellen Clemens made key plays and generally avoided critical errors. Smith and Clemens even scrambled for touchdowns. They stood high above the Seattle Seahawks' Jackson in Total QBR for Week 17.

Skelton's performance in victory over Seattle gave him the highest single-game QBR for a Cardinals quarterback (69.7) since Kurt Warner scored a 75.1 against the Rams in Week 16 of the 2009 season. That was enough to move Skelton past Jackson for second behind Smith among NFC West quarterbacks in QBR for the 2011 season.

What does it all mean?

QBR measures how quarterbacks affect their teams' win probability on a play-by-play basis, taking into account contributions related to passing, rushing, sacks, penalties and fumbles. It would have us believe that NFC West quarterbacks played well occasionally, but their contributions over the full season fell short of the 50-point score representing average. I would generally agree.

The first chart below suggests Smith has picked up his play recently, posting scores in the 70s for three weeks running, and 67.7 or higher six times in the last eight games. Smith's NFL passer rating (90.7) ranked ninth in the NFL. His QBR ranked 22nd largely because the 49ers added relatively few expected points through passing, and because Smith ranked last in expected point lost to sacks.

Smith has taken five sacks over his last three games after taking 18 over the previous three. The 49ers have not committed a turnover in their last five games.

The key for Smith, in my view, will be transitioning away from turnover avoidance through sacks (avoiding interceptions at all costs) and moving toward completing passes against pressure. We have seen that on occasion recently.

I've shaded the chart to show single-game scores in the 60s or higher. For reference, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees scored in the 80s over the full 2011 season. Any full-season score in the mid-60s represents Pro Bowl-caliber production.

Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 17 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (73.3 QBR, 98.7 NFL rating): Smith completed 21 of 31 passes for 219 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, three sacks no fumbles. He gained five yards on four carries and had a rushing touchdown. The 49ers had only three wide receivers active, putting pressure on Smith to better utilize tight end Vernon Davis and receiver Michael Crabtree. Smith succeeded. He found Davis on deep passes gaining 44 and 34 yards. Crabtree did much of the work on a 28-yard scoring pass, but Smith's rushing score on third-and-goal from the 8 helped.
• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (69.7 QBR, 74.1 NFL rating): Skelton completed 22 of 40 passes for 271 yards with one touchdown, one interception, two sacks and no fumbles. He ran five times for 19 yards. Skelton completed third-down passes covering 26, 26, 22 and 18 yards. He also picked up a critical first down on a fourth-and-2 play in overtime. The touchdown drive Skelton led in the first quarter featured a 22-yard completion to Todd Heap on third-and-5.
• Kellen Clemens, St. Louis Rams (64.9 QBR, 67.4 NFL rating): Clemens completed 14 of 31 passes for 226 yards with one touchdown, one interception, three sacks and no fumbles. He ran twice for 18 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers had allowed only one rushing touchdown all season when Clemens sprinted into the end zone for an 18-yard touchdown in the first quarter. Clemens' 36-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Lloyd on third-and-11 gave the Rams a chance late in the game. He also completed a 21-yard pass on third-and-10 a bit later.
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks (26.7 QBR, 76.1 NFL rating): Jackson completed 21 of 35 passes for 222 yards with one touchdown, one interception, four sacks and one fumble, which the Seahawks recovered. He gained three yards on his only rush. Jackson twice missed an open Ben Obomanu for deep passes that likely would have produced touchdowns. He did connect with Ricardo Lockette for a 61-yard score, but the Seahawks converted just three times on 19 third-down chances. Jackson could not claim his first fourth-quarter comeback victory of the season despite rallying into a tie.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

The three names listed last in ESPN's weekly quarterback performance rankings have one thing in common: NFC West divisional heritage.

The Arizona Cardinals' John Skelton was 32nd. The St. Louis Rams' Kellen Clemens was at No. 31. The Seattle Seahawks' Tarvaris Jackson was 30th.

This would normally be unwelcome in these parts, but I'm going to embrace their Week 16 badness as beneficial to the division's long-term health. Skelton and Jackson had been winning enough recently to change perceptions about them. Having them struggle in defeats that knocked their teams from playoff contention makes it tougher for anyone, including the teams, to overestimate their capabilities.

The case of Alex Smith in San Francisco is a little trickier. Smith continues to lag in the season-long Total QBR rankings, but he has been quite good in recent weeks, save for a rough outing at Baltimore. Five times in the 49ers' last seven games, Smith has produced QBR figures that would project as worthy of Pro Bowl consideration if maintained over a full season. Those looking at raw passing stats might also notice that Smith has 24 touchdowns with only six interceptions while posting a 15-5 record in his last 20 starts.

The key plays Smith made for the 49ers in Week 16 -- two scrambles and a few clutch throws -- were enough for San Francisco to win despite suffering a blocked punt and a couple key injuries.

"I really thought that he was the difference in the game for them," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told reporters Monday. "I thought he did a very nice job. He didn’t turn the ball over at all, which was great for them. But those few plays -- that handful of plays where he kept the thing going -- I thought gave them an advantage on us that day."

Life gets a little more complicated for Smith now that a jaw injury is threatening to sideline tight end Delanie Walker, possibly for the season.

The situation at wide receiver is also in flux. Ted Ginn Jr. has been hurt, Kyle Williams suffered a concussion Saturday and Braylon Edwards announced his release via Twitter on Tuesday morning. Starter Josh Morgan is on injured reserve.

Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 16 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (73.8 QBR, 75.6 NFL rating): Smith completed 14 of 26 passes for 179 yards with no touchdowns, no interceptions, two sacks and one fumble, which the 49ers recovered. He scrambled five times for 22 yards, gaining 12 on a third-and-8 play to sustain a touchdown drive. This performance was good enough under the circumstances for the 49ers to win a close game against a good, but limited opponent. Questions about the 49ers' ability to keep pace with more dynamic offenses -- specifically those for Green Bay and New Orleans in the NFC -- will persist. But the 49ers were not playing those teams Saturday. Smith did what he had to do to win the game he was playing.
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks (11.8 QBR, 82.9 NFL rating): Jackson completed 15 of 28 passes for 163 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, three sacks and one lost fumble. He gained 5 yards on three carries. Jackson's NFL passer rating for the season nearly mirrors the one former Seahawks starter Matt Hasselbeck has posted in Tennessee. Hasselbeck ranks significantly higher in Total QBR, however, because plays associated with him have done more to increase his team's win probability. Jackson's tendency to hold onto the ball has led to sacks and other problems for Seattle. That was the case when the 49ers forced him to fumble late in the game. The turnover was pivotal.
• Kellen Clemens, St. Louis Rams (9.4 QBR, 49.1 NFL rating): Clemens completed 9 of 24 passes for 91 yards with no touchdowns, no interceptions, three sacks and one fumble, which the Rams recovered. He gained 10 yards on two rushes. The Rams leaned heavily on running back Steven Jackson in this game. Clemens was under pressure and could not lead the Rams into the end zone. Nothing he did gave the Rams a realistic shot at winning the game.
• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (6.3 QBR, 60.5 NFL rating): Skelton completed 23 of 44 passes for 297 yards with two touchdowns, three interceptions, five sacks and one fumble, which the Cardinals recovered. He rushed four times for 6 yards. The fact that Skelton's poor play doomed the Cardinals to a 23-0 deficit proved more important than the plays he made in getting Arizona back into the game late. The fourth-quarter production meant little in the end.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

Coach Jim Harbaugh was on a roll Monday night.

What was it like inside the San Francisco 49ers' locker room before kickoff?

"It was dark," Harbaugh said to laughter, alluding to the power outage at Candlestick Park.

Harbaugh wasn't kidding later in his postgame media session when he promoted 49ers quarterback Alex Smith for Pro Bowl honors. Smith has an 11-3 starting record, a 16-to-5 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions and a 91.1 NFL passer rating. Smith took no sacks and committed no turnovers during the 49ers' 20-3 victory over Pittsburgh on Monday night.

This, by almost any measure, counts as a breakout season for Smith. But with only three Pro Bowl slots available in each conference, Smith would have to beat out one of the following players to represent the conference in the annual all-star game: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton.

That simply is not going to happen, in my view, but should it?

Smith does not measure up by the raw stats traditionally used to evaluate the position. Other quarterbacks have significantly more yards and touchdown passes. Some have higher passer ratings. But if Smith were doing the little things to improve his team's chances of winning, Total QBR would seemingly pick up on it. That is not the case.

Smith's QBR for the season stands at only 42.5 out of 100, below average. Pro Bowl quarterbacks generally rate around 65 over a full season. Smith has achieved those levels in select games, including with a 79.0 against the Steelers. But his season-long number suggests the 49ers are winning largely for reasons beyond the quarterback. Smith would deserve credit for doing his job and not preventing victories, but he would not get as much credit for securing them.

We've discussed this subject several times already this season. Harbaugh's comments invited another look.

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Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 15 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (79.0 QBR, 86.4 NFL rating): Smith completed 18 of 31 passes for 187 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, no sacks and three rushes for 12 yards. He did not fumble. Smith completed 8 of 11 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown in the second half as the 49ers extended their lead from six to 17 points, according to ESPN Stats & Information. His QBR rose from 68.6 to 83.1 during a five-play, 79-yard drive leading to Smith's scoring pass for Vernon Davis. The Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger tossed three picks and took three sacks. His QBR was 24.6. The 49ers' victory gave teams with higher QBR scores than their opponents a 16-0 record in Week 15.
• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (55.6 QBR, 79.3 NFL rating): See earlier item.
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks (42.6 QBR, 94.4 NFL rating): See earlier item.
• Kellen Clemens, St. Louis Rams (24.0 QBR, 95.7 NFL rating): See earlier item.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 15.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

The Seattle Seahawks can live with -- and win with -- the passing Tarvaris Jackson has provided them over the last two games.

Jackson's improved health has helped him complete 70.1 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, no interceptions, an 8.6-yard average per attempt and a 110.9 NFL passer rating during victories over Philadelphia and St. Louis. Seattle converted 8 of 13 third-down passing opportunities.

Two fumbles, including one from a botched exchange on third down in Rams territory, dropped Jackson's Total QBR from 59.1 to 39.4 at that point in the game. And because Seattle did not extend its lead, Jackson's final-game QBR checked in at a modest 41.1 -- right around his cumulative season score. That was more than enough for Jackson and the Seahawks to beat the Rams, 30-13.

Sam Bradford struggled on an injured ankle and against Seattle's aggressive cornerbacks. He failed to complete any of his five goal-to-go passes, dropping his season total to one completion in 16 attempts on those throws. The interception he threw right after halftime contributed to a season-low 8.8 QBR, with 50 representing average play and 100 the maximum. Bradford appeared to have trouble stepping through some throws, causing some to fall short of their targets. The intercepted pass was slightly behind its target.

Note: Newly configured expanded QBR pages show breakdowns across multiple categories, including by division. Some of the individual leaderboards are filtered to include only quarterbacks with 30 action plays in a game.

Update: Yards after catch are another key factor in these calculations. Receivers get more credit than quarterbacks for yards gained after the reception. Seattle's Doug Baldwin gained 73 of his 93 yards after the catch, a single-game high for a Seattle player this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Rams' Steven Jackson gained 50 yards on a screen pass, another play featuring significant YAC.

Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 14 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (44.1 QBR, 106.5 NFL rating): See previous item.
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks (41.1 QBR, 96.4 NFL rating): Jackson completed 21 of 32 passes for 224 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, two sacks and five rushes for four yards. He fumbled twice, losing one. Jackson recently edged into the NFC West lead for season-long QBR. He posted a season-high 76.9 against Philadelphia in Week 13. The Rams have allowed opponents a 52.1 QBR, 18th-best in the league. Seattle's next opponent, Chicago, ranks 15th at 49.2 allowed.
• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (9.4 QBR, 62.3 NFL rating): See previous item.
• Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (8.8 QBR, 49.9 NFL rating): Bradford completed 12 of 29 passes for 193 yards with no touchdowns, one interception, three sacks and two rushes for minus-1 yard. He did not fumble. The Seahawks now rank 11th in QBR allowed (43.8). The Rams' next opponent, Cincinnati, ranks 12th (47.8).

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 14.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

The Arizona Cardinals won Sunday despite finishing with only 12 first downs and a 21 percent conversion rate on third down. They won despite losing the turnover battle.

Their 21-19 victory over the San Francisco 49ers marked the third time since 1940 a Cardinals team has won a game with two-plus interceptions and zero takeaways, according to Pro Football Reference. A combination of stifling defense, poor opposing offense and sensational play from receiver Larry Fitzgerald lifted Arizona.

Quarterback John Skelton finished the game with a career-high NFL passer rating of 106.5. But with Cardinals receivers gaining 180 yards after the catch, a season high by 84 yards, Skelton emerged from the game with a middling 44.1 out of 100 in Total QBR.

Huge gaps between NFL passer rating and QBR have been fairly common in the NFC West this season. QBR has sometimes downgraded Skelton's teammate, Kevin Kolb, and 49ers starter Alex Smith even when raw passing stats suggested they played well.

Those quarterbacks' season-long QBR scores are all below 50, which represents average play. Sacks have been a leading factor most of the season.

Cardinals receivers, running backs and tight ends have also gained significant yards after the catch. Quarterbacks share blame for sacks and credit for yards after the catch under the QBR formula, one reason Arizona's scores have lagged.

Fitzgerald made the pivotal plays for Arizona on offense. Among his contributions:

• Throwing the key block on Early Doucet's 60-yard scoring reception;
• Tracking down 49ers safety Dashon Goldson following an interception return in Cardinals territory, saving a potential touchdown;
• Heading off another potential Goldson interception with a leaping grab, followed by an improbable spin move and dash for the end zone for a 46-yard touchdown;
• Setting up another Cardinals touchdown by turning a short pass into a 53-yard gain.

The Cardinals, more than any NFC West team, have proven an ability to strike for big plays on a historic scale.

From 1990 through last season, no Cardinals quarterback threw two scoring passes of at least 40 yards in the same game, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Skelton did it Sunday. Kolb did it against Carolina in the regular-season opener. Those games featured the team's highest totals for yards after the catch. That helps explain the gaps between triple-digit passer ratings and roughly average QBR scores in those games.

The chart shows game-by-game and full-season QBR scores for NFC West quarterbacks heading into the St. Louis Rams' game against the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson now holds the top season-long QBR score for the division after Smith's season-low 9.4 QBR against Arizona dragged him down.

Note: Check out newly configured expanded QBR pages showing breakdowns across multiple categories, including by division. The 49ers' Smith owns the four highest scores among NFC West quarterbacks this season.


Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 14 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (44.1 QBR, 106.5 NFL rating): Skelton completed 19 of 28 passes for 282 yards with three touchdowns, two interceptions, one sack and one fumble (lost). He scrambled six times for 25 yards. Skelton played poorly enough to lose the game, then well enough to win it thanks to tremendous play from the Cardinals' defense and what should stand as one of Fitzgerald's finest games. Skelton showed great improvement from his previous start against the 49ers. He played better than expected against a strong defense, and he did it without taking many practice reps. This was a step forward for Skelton and his efforts to remain a viable No. 2 quarterback. His size and strength gave him and advantage over Kolb when it came to extending plays.
• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (9.4 QBR, 62.3 NFL rating): Smith completed 18 of 37 passes for 175 yards with no touchdowns, no interceptions, five sacks and one rush for minus-3 yards. He did not fumble. The 49ers suffered no turnovers, in part because the Cardinals failed to capitalize on a couple prime opportunities, including one on a pass Sam Acho tipped to himself. Smith did little to lift an offense whose troubles extend beyond the red zone. He faced third-and-12 or longer five times. Protection faltered, and Smith wasn't able to find quick outlets against pressure. Coach Jim Harbaugh said the game plan called for more passes than usual. The odds were against Smith and he could not overcome them.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 14.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

Kevin Kolb needed merely to be average for the Arizona Cardinals to realize a significant gain in the standings.

That was my theory heading into the 2011 NFL season.

The team was so bad at quarterback in finishing 5-11 last season, my thinking went, that even mediocre play might get them into the .500 range. Kolb has too frequently been less than mediocre this season, but that changed during the second half and overtime of the Cardinals' 19-13 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13.

Total QBR, which pegs average quarterback play at 50 on a 100-point scale, says Kolb has played near an average level four times this season, including when he posted a season-high 54.0 score Sunday. The Cardinals are 2-2 in those four games. They are 0-4 when Kolb has posted a QBR score significantly worse than average.

So, while an improved defense largely accounted for the Cardinals' victory Sunday, slightly better than average quarterback play was critical, too.

Kolb remains the only projected NFC West starter without a single-game QBR score of 55 or higher. He faces a tough test when San Francisco visits University of Phoenix Stadium in Week 14. Average might not be good enough then, but with three of their final four games at home, the Cardinals still have a chance to approach that .500 range -- right where we thought they might land, albeit by less conventional means.


Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 13 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks (76.9 QBR, 142.3 NFL rating): See full breakdown from Friday.
• Alex Smith, 49ers (68.7 QBR, 142.3 NFL rating): Smith completed 17 of 23 passes for 274 yards with two touchdowns, no interceptions, four sacks, no fumbles and two rushing attempts covering 10 yards (rush stats updated). He finished with the highest single-game NFL passer rating of his career. Smith also posted a high QBR score, but the blowout affected how much credit he got for plays deemed less important to winning. QBR does not necessarily tell us how well a quarterback executed his team's game plan. It does not necessarily tell us whether he threw pretty passes. It tells us how his passes, runs, penalties and sacks affected win probability on a per-play basis, weighted for game situations. Smith has largely done what the team has asked him to do. The team has not always asked him to be the difference in winning. For that reason, his QBR scores have sometimes lagged despite seemingly efficient play. The downfield throws Smith made Sunday helped him finish with his sixth QBR score of 65 or higher. That level, if sustained over the course of a season, would reflect Pro Bowl-caliber play. QBR says Smith has achieved that level more often than not recently.
• Kevin Kolb, Cardinals (54.0 QBR, 109.9 NFL rating): Kolb completed 16 of 25 passes for 247 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, five sacks and no fumbles. He ran three times for 20 yards, including once for a 17-yard gain to the Dallas 5-yard line on the Cardinals' first possession of the second half. Kolb passed for only 44 yards in the first half and took four of his sacks then. He played much better from that point forward. The QBR score was only slightly above average because Kolb took so many sacks. And because LaRod Stephens-Howling did most of the work on the winning 52-yard touchdown reception in overtime, Kolb did not get as much credit for that throw as NFL passer rating gave him.
• A.J. Feeley, Rams (11.4 QBR, 58.1 NFL rating): Feeley completed 12 of 22 passes for 156 yards with no touchdowns, one interception, four sacks, one fumble (lost) and no rushing attempts. Austin Pettis dropped an early third-down pass when a conversion was within reach. Danario Alexander failed to hold onto a deep pass at the goal line. The game wasn't very competitive, however, and that meant even strong plays from Feeley would not have registered as much with QBR once the score was lopsided.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 13.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

Note in the chart below that Dallas' Tony Romo added far more expected points through his passing than any quarterback listed. The negative totals he posted for rushing, sacks and penalties left his QBR score in the mid-50s, however.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Tarvaris Jackson has gamely battled through a torn pectoral muscle suffered during an Oct. 9 victory over the New York Giants.

Taking a closer look at Jackson's performance during a 23-17 defeat to Washington in Week 12 brought to mind a question for our consideration: Should the Seahawks shut down Jackson and use the remaining games to see what third-stringer Josh Portis has to offer?

A few factors entering into such a decision:

• Health: The pectoral injury seemed to affect Jackson's throwing ability to a degree it had not previously. The team has already said Jackson might require surgery. Jackson has had trouble practicing on consecutive days. His performance has declined over the last few weeks. What is there to gain by leaving him in the lineup at well less than full strength?
• What's at stake: The playoffs aren't a realistic option. Official elimination from the postseason will come with the Seahawks' next defeat or the San Francisco 49ers' next win or tie. Trying to squeeze out an extra victory or two while exposing Jackson to more serious injury makes little sense. The team needs Jackson to be ready for training camp. The defeat to Washington called into question whether Jackson can squeeze out another victory or two, anyway.
• The process: This season was about discovery at the quarterback position and building other positions before drafting a QB in 2012. The Seahawks have seen enough from backup Charlie Whitehurst, who likely will not be back next season. Jackson proved he's tough and capable enough to serve as a bridge to the team's next starter. Portis' talents have intrigued the coaching staff. When else will the team have a chance to give Portis a look in real games?

Health permitting, Jackson probably needs to start against Philadelphia on Thursday night. His experience will help during a short work week. If Jackson were to enjoy a strong game, Seattle could reevaluate. Otherwise, the team could consider starting Portis at home against St. Louis in Week 14. In the meantime, make him the No. 2 option against Philadelphia.

Your thoughts? I did not raise draft order as a primary consideration because tanking the season shouldn't be a primary motivation. But if the team could protect Jackson from more serious injury, find out more about Portis and gain a few spots in the 2012 draft, that would be OK, too.

The chart shows Total QBR scores for NFC West quarterbacks each week this season. League-wide scores for the season are available here. All were well below the 50-point average on a 100-point scale.

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Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 12 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• Sam Bradford, Rams (39.3 QBR, 85.8 NFL rating): Bradford completed 17 of 31 passwes for 203 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions and two sacks during a 23-20 home defeat to Arizona. He did not carry the ball as a runner. He fumbled once and the Cardinals recovered. Decent passing stats gave Bradford a relatively high NFL passer rating. The fumble he lost and the Rams' overall ineffectiveness, particularly on third down, worked against him.
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks (24.7 QBR, 69.3 NFL rating): Jackson completed 14 of 30 passes for 144 yards with two touchdowns, one interception and two sacks during a 23-17 home defeat to Washington. He did not carry the ball as a runner. He did not fumble. Jackson got little help from his wide receivers. Mike Williams dropped passes and failed to come back to the ball when Jackson was scrambling early in the game. Zach Miller also had a drop. Jackson has been willing to hold onto the ball in an effort to make plays. His injury hasn't allowed him to make enough of those plays.
• Alex Smith, 49ers (15.8 QBR, 61.1 NFL rating): Smith completed 15 of 24 passes for 140 yards with no touchdowns, one interception and nine sacks during a 16-6 road defeat to Baltimore. He gained 12 yards on two rushes. The 49ers recovered his lone fumble. Smith's teammates shared responsibility for some of the sacks Smith took against Baltimore. The QBR formula places some of the blame for sacks on quarterbacks. Smith's minus-7.3 expected points for sacks stands as the lowest score for that category in Week 12.
• John Skelton, Cardinals (18.1 QBR, 30.0 NFL rating): Skelton completed 12 of 23 passes for 114 yards with no touchdowns, two interceptions and three sacks. He gained 18 yards on three rushes. Skelton did not fumble. His QBR for the season has now dipped below that of injured starter Kevin Kolb. The Cardinals have won three of their last four game, all with Skelton as the starter. They needed punt returns for touchdowns in both victories over St. Louis. Beanie Wells' 228-yard rushing performance was another key Sunday.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 12.

Most young, inexperienced quarterbacks are going to struggle on the road against top NFL defenses.

John Skelton's performance for the Arizona Cardinals against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 11 undercut even the most guarded expectations. Skelton finished the game with a 10.5 NFL passer rating and 0.9 Total QBR that ranked among the lowest recorded since ESPN began tracking the stat for the 2008 season.

The performance came at a time when the Cardinals' ability to develop quarterback talent was already inviting tough questions. Injured starter Kevin Kolb has struggled and arguably regressed during his first seven starts with the team, while ex-Cardinal Matt Leinart has a shot at taking the Houston Texans to the playoffs.

The questions we discussed when the Cardinals acquired Kolb linger:

• Was Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt a driving force behind Ben Roethlisberger's historic rookie season in Pittsburgh, or mostly a beneficiary of it?
• Was Whisenhunt pivotal in restoring Kurt Warner's career by persuading Warner to reform his Mike Martz-coached penchant for the daring? Or did Whisenhunt luck into a Hall of Famer, with former coordinator Todd Haley taking the lead internally?

These questions might not have clear answers. But continued struggles at quarterback will amplify them, particularly if Leinart appears vastly improved under Gary Kubiak in Houston.

Total QBR, which measures how quarterbacks affect their teams' chances for winning, shows Kolb and Skelton lagging badly. Their scores are in the 30s out of 100, with 50 being average and 65 over a full season representing Pro Bowl-caliber play. Warner was at 66.5 for the 2008 season and 64.5 the following year.

The first chart shows QBR scores for NFC West quarterbacks by week and for the season.

Rich Bartel's low score in Week 5 reflects, in part, the hopeless circumstances he inherited late in the game at Minnesota. There was nothing he could do to improve the Cardinals' win probability in a meaningful way.

Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 11 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• Alex Smith, 49ers (69.5 QBR, 81.8 NFL rating): Smith completed 20 of 38 passes for 267 yards with two touchdowns, one interception, no sacks, no fumbles and seven carries for 17 yards. Smith was right when he said the 49ers squandered multiple opportunities in the passing game. The interception he threw came after the game was well in control, however, and there was never a point when the 49ers appeared in danger of losing. Those factors helped Smith post a strong QBR for the second week in a row, the third time in four weeks and the fifth time in seven weeks. Taking no sacks helped his cause. Smith did a very good job putting both hands on the ball when the Cardinals got enough pressure to force a scramble.
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks (41.3 QBR, 55.6 NFL rating): Jackson completed 14 of 24 passes for 148 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions, four sacks, no fumbles and two carries for 10 yards. Jackson tossed interceptions on his first two passes, which is no way to start a game. His QBR score was below average, but still much better than the score for his Rams counterpart. Jackson played well enough to win under the circumstances, even if he didn't play well overall. Jackson continued to show a strong rapport with rookie receiver Doug Baldwin, finding him for third-down completions covering 35, 15 and 10 yards -- all for first downs.
• Rich Bartel, Cardinals (23.8 QBR, 52.5 NFL rating): Bartel completed 8 of 16 passes for 64 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, one sack, no fumbles and one carry for 9 yards. The game felt out of reach by the time Bartel entered to start the fourth quarter. His 23-yard scoring pass to Larry Fitzgerald stands as a career highlight so far. It made no difference in the game, however. Note: I updated the stats for Bartel in this paragraph. They previously included the six passes he attempted against Minnesota earlier in the season.
• Sam Bradford, Rams (13.7 QBR, 60.5 NFL rating): Bradford completed 20 of 40 passes for 181 yards with one touchdown, one interception, five sacks, two fumbles (both lost) and no rushing attempts. This game marked the third of the season for Bradford with a QBR score between 12-14, and he has yet to post one higher than 55.3 this season. Bradford's QBR last season was 41.0. It featured a 94.7 against Denver, an 80.5 at home against San Francisco and a 69.4 against Washington. Unfortunately for the Rams, Bradford was better when Josh McDaniels was trying to stop him than he's been with McDaniels trying to help him. That is confounding even though injuries have affected the offense quite a bit, including Bradford.
• John Skelton, Cardinals (0.9 QBR, 10.5 NFL rating): Skelton completed 6 of 19 passes for 99 yards with no touchdowns, three interceptions, one sack, one fumble (Arizona recovered) and no rushing attempts. Whisenhunt criticized him for missing reads, setting up wrong in the pocket and playing like a rookie. Skelton will likely remain the starter against St. Louis in Week 12 if Kolb's foot and toe aren't sufficiently healed. Otherwise, Kolb gets the start.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 11.

The St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford, the Arizona Cardinals' John Skelton and the Seattle Seahawks' strengths/weaknesses were subjects for discussion Tuesday on the Bernie Miklasz Show.

Our weekly conversation also touched on that other NFC West team, the one with a shot at clinching the division title by Week 13.

On Bradford, we discussed the need for increased production, particularly with Steven Jackson running well and Brandon Lloyd adding another dimension at receiver.

This has been a rough season for Bradford. He hasn't made memorable plays or done much to put his team in position to win. He's obviously hurting physically. Beyond the high-ankle sprain, I suspect we'll learn about additional injuries once the season is finished -- nothing serious enough to threaten his availability or require mention on the injury report, but nagging stuff that affects a quarterback's play.

There's still time for Bradford to get healthier and become more productive. Making that happen has to stand as the Rams' top priority for the final seven games.

The chart shows where Bradford stands compared to other NFC West quarterbacks in Total QBR by week.