NFC West: Ray McDonald
First impressions on the San Francisco 49ers' performance in the 2012 NFL draft:
What I liked: The 49ers, having already kept together one of the NFL's most dominant defenses in free agency, made a concerted effort to improve on offense. Their first three picks went for a receiver (A.J. Jenkins), a running back (LaMichael James) and a guard (Joe Looney). The team is now in better position to succeed with quarterback Alex Smith and running back Frank Gore. Likewise, if Smith struggles and age catches up to Gore, the 49ers are in better position to succeed offensively with younger players at their positions. The team also fared well in trading back to acquire additional picks, including for next year.
Question marks: It's quite possible none of the 49ers' draft choices will win a starting job this year. A roster without many holes is partly responsible. The 49ers' low standing in the draft order was another factor. Whether Looney bounces back from a foot injury well enough to challenge for the starting job at right guard could be a key variable. Mostly, I'm interested in seeing what the 49ers saw in Jenkins, a relatively low-profile player who has nonetheless received high marks from personnel evaluators I've polled on other teams.
Trending: The 49ers have drafted only one defensive lineman over the past three years if we count 2011 first-rounder Aldon Smith as an outside linebacker. That is understandable given how well Justin Smith and Ray McDonald are playing. But with Smith turning 33 this season, McDonald having overcome serious knee injuries and 2008 first-rounder Kentwan Balmer long gone, the time is coming for San Francisco to address the position. The 49ers did find promising prospects in 2011 undrafted free agents Ian Williams and Demarcus Dobbs, taking off some of the pressure.
Veteran put on alert: Gore would be the logical choice here. He turns 29 in May, past the age when teams start looking for replacements. The 49ers have now drafted four running backs over the past three seasons, including James and 2011 fourth-rounder Kendall Hunter. San Francisco also signed veteran Brandon Jacobs in free agency. Gore started 15 games last season and topped 1,200 yards, but he peaked in November. This position has gotten more competitive.
What I liked: The 49ers, having already kept together one of the NFL's most dominant defenses in free agency, made a concerted effort to improve on offense. Their first three picks went for a receiver (A.J. Jenkins), a running back (LaMichael James) and a guard (Joe Looney). The team is now in better position to succeed with quarterback Alex Smith and running back Frank Gore. Likewise, if Smith struggles and age catches up to Gore, the 49ers are in better position to succeed offensively with younger players at their positions. The team also fared well in trading back to acquire additional picks, including for next year.
Question marks: It's quite possible none of the 49ers' draft choices will win a starting job this year. A roster without many holes is partly responsible. The 49ers' low standing in the draft order was another factor. Whether Looney bounces back from a foot injury well enough to challenge for the starting job at right guard could be a key variable. Mostly, I'm interested in seeing what the 49ers saw in Jenkins, a relatively low-profile player who has nonetheless received high marks from personnel evaluators I've polled on other teams.
Trending: The 49ers have drafted only one defensive lineman over the past three years if we count 2011 first-rounder Aldon Smith as an outside linebacker. That is understandable given how well Justin Smith and Ray McDonald are playing. But with Smith turning 33 this season, McDonald having overcome serious knee injuries and 2008 first-rounder Kentwan Balmer long gone, the time is coming for San Francisco to address the position. The 49ers did find promising prospects in 2011 undrafted free agents Ian Williams and Demarcus Dobbs, taking off some of the pressure.
Veteran put on alert: Gore would be the logical choice here. He turns 29 in May, past the age when teams start looking for replacements. The 49ers have now drafted four running backs over the past three seasons, including James and 2011 fourth-rounder Kendall Hunter. San Francisco also signed veteran Brandon Jacobs in free agency. Gore started 15 games last season and topped 1,200 yards, but he peaked in November. This position has gotten more competitive.
NFL general managers put their reputations on the line come draft day.
Some fare better than others.
The chart shows how many Pro Bowl players current NFC West GMs have drafted or helped draft over the past 10 years.
The numbers are not definitive. Current GMs from the division weren't always primary decision makers during the period in question. They do not deserve all the credit (or blame) for the players their teams drafted.
In some cases -- think first-team All-Pro choice NaVorro Bowman in San Francisco, for example -- very good players have not yet achieved Pro Bowl acclaim. In other cases, a single decision -- say, drafting Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay -- improved an organization's trajectory enough to launch other players to the Pro Bowl.
What we have, basically, is a starting point for discussion heading into the 2012 draft. Here's a look at each current NFC West GM and the associated 2002-2011 draft choices with Pro Bowls on their résumés:
Whoa, the NFC West chat is getting under way now. Gotta run.
Some fare better than others.
The chart shows how many Pro Bowl players current NFC West GMs have drafted or helped draft over the past 10 years.
The numbers are not definitive. Current GMs from the division weren't always primary decision makers during the period in question. They do not deserve all the credit (or blame) for the players their teams drafted.
In some cases -- think first-team All-Pro choice NaVorro Bowman in San Francisco, for example -- very good players have not yet achieved Pro Bowl acclaim. In other cases, a single decision -- say, drafting Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay -- improved an organization's trajectory enough to launch other players to the Pro Bowl.
What we have, basically, is a starting point for discussion heading into the 2012 draft. Here's a look at each current NFC West GM and the associated 2002-2011 draft choices with Pro Bowls on their résumés:
- John Schneider, Seattle Seahawks (10): Schneider is entering his third draft as a GM after joining the Seahawks from Green Bay, where he worked under Ted Thompson. Seattle safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor went to the Pro Bowl after last season. Schneider was in Green Bay when the Packers drafted eventual Pro Bowl choices B.J. Raji, Javon Walker, Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, Nick Collins, Greg Jennings, Aaron Kampman and Scott Wells. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Jermichael Finley, Richard Sherman, Matt Flynn.
- Trent Baalke, San Francisco 49ers (8): Baalke was with the Washington Redskins when they selected Sean Taylor and Chris Cooley. He was with the 49ers in a sub-GM role when San Francisco selected Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis, Joe Staley, Frank Gore, Dashon Goldson and Michael Robinson. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Bowman, Aldon Smith, Ray McDonald.
- Rod Graves, Arizona Cardinals (7): Graves has been the Cardinals' GM for the entire period in question, although personnel director Steve Keim is ultimately responsible for setting the draft board. Draft choices Larry Fitzgerald, Patrick Peterson, Antrel Rolle, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Anquan Boldin, Darnell Dockett and Antonio Smith achieved Pro Bowl status. Smith went to the Pro Bowl with Houston last season. That counts for the purposes of our discussion. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Calais Campbell, Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington.
- Les Snead, St. Louis Rams (4): Snead enters his first draft as a GM after a long run with Atlanta. The Falcons selected eventual Pro Bowl choices Matt Ryan, DeAngelo Hall, Roddy White and Matt Schaub when Snead was with the team. Again, the period in question covers only the last 10 drafts, excluding from consideration other players (Michael Vick comes to mind among Snead-era Falcons choices). Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Curtis Lofton, Thomas DeCoud, Laurent Robinson.
Whoa, the NFC West chat is getting under way now. Gotta run.
A reminder as NFL teams name franchise players: Teams can withdraw the designations if players decide against signing the corresponding one-year offers.
That came to mind Friday upon reading Matt Maiocco's report suggesting Dashon Goldson had no immediate plans to sign the San Francisco 49ers' one-year franchise offer worth an estimated $6.2 million.
Teams rarely withdraw franchise designations, but plans can change. Leroy Hill found out the hard way back in 2009, when the Seattle Seahawks used a first-round choice for Aaron Curry, then withdrew an $8.3 million franchise offer from Hill, who was suddenly scrambling as a free agent after the draft.
We all saw what happened to Goldson last offseason. He found nothing palatable in free agency, then re-signed with the 49ers for one year and $2 million. The lockout made for unusual circumstances. Goldson might find the market more favorable this year.
But I see no advantage for Goldson in withholding his signature. Any team signing him to an offer would face losing two first-round draft choices if the 49ers declined to match. Teams simply do not trade two first-round choices for the right to pay good safeties.
Signing the franchise offer makes the money guaranteed. Not signing the offer means it could disappear if circumstances changed.
Goldson has a Pro Bowl on his resume, so he is more accomplished than Seattle's Hill was back in 2009. But neither was a player the team absolutely had to keep. The Seahawks, like the 49ers now, had more options than the player.
The 49ers appear unlikely to withdraw the tag, but they will get by just fine this offseason with or without Goldson under contract. Goldson has more at stake.
I see less reason for Arizona's Calais Campbell to sign the Cardinals' franchise offer, which has been projected to be around $10.6 million. There is virtually no chance the Cardinals would withdraw the tag, and if they did, Campbell would command big money from teams hungry for young defensive linemen of his caliber.
In Seattle, meanwhile, the Seahawks are expected to use the franchise designation on Marshawn Lynch if a long-term deal remains elusive. The deadline for naming franchise players is Monday.
That came to mind Friday upon reading Matt Maiocco's report suggesting Dashon Goldson had no immediate plans to sign the San Francisco 49ers' one-year franchise offer worth an estimated $6.2 million.
Teams rarely withdraw franchise designations, but plans can change. Leroy Hill found out the hard way back in 2009, when the Seattle Seahawks used a first-round choice for Aaron Curry, then withdrew an $8.3 million franchise offer from Hill, who was suddenly scrambling as a free agent after the draft.
We all saw what happened to Goldson last offseason. He found nothing palatable in free agency, then re-signed with the 49ers for one year and $2 million. The lockout made for unusual circumstances. Goldson might find the market more favorable this year.
But I see no advantage for Goldson in withholding his signature. Any team signing him to an offer would face losing two first-round draft choices if the 49ers declined to match. Teams simply do not trade two first-round choices for the right to pay good safeties.
Signing the franchise offer makes the money guaranteed. Not signing the offer means it could disappear if circumstances changed.
Goldson has a Pro Bowl on his resume, so he is more accomplished than Seattle's Hill was back in 2009. But neither was a player the team absolutely had to keep. The Seahawks, like the 49ers now, had more options than the player.
The 49ers appear unlikely to withdraw the tag, but they will get by just fine this offseason with or without Goldson under contract. Goldson has more at stake.
I see less reason for Arizona's Calais Campbell to sign the Cardinals' franchise offer, which has been projected to be around $10.6 million. There is virtually no chance the Cardinals would withdraw the tag, and if they did, Campbell would command big money from teams hungry for young defensive linemen of his caliber.
In Seattle, meanwhile, the Seahawks are expected to use the franchise designation on Marshawn Lynch if a long-term deal remains elusive. The deadline for naming franchise players is Monday.
Ahmad Brooks: 'This is where I should be'
February, 28, 2012
Feb 28
5:23
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Certain former San Francisco 49ers coaches thought Ahmad Brooks the linebacker could not learn their defense.
"A few coaches said that and told me that personally," Brooks said Tuesday. "That has always been a lie."
Brooks would not name the coaches Tuesday, and the story was not about them, anyway. The story was about the 49ers' new staff liking Brooks enough to sign him through 2017.
"I feel like this is where I should be," Brooks said. "These are the people that gave me a chance to go out there and get this contract."
Brooks had been a situational pass-rusher under the previous staff. He grew into that role and performed it well, but it was not clear whether Brooks would remain effective if asked to become an every-down player. The current staff, led by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, was obviously happy with the results after Brooks collected seven sacks in 16 starts.
"I just feel comfortable playing in this system," Brooks said. "(Fangio) doesn't ask for a lot. It is just easy to me."
That is a sign of good coaching. To suggest that Brooks hasn't changed would be unfair to his previous coaches, however. If Brooks is like most people, he's more mature now, at age 27, than he was in his early 20s. Still, there is some risk in handing millions to a player with Brooks' history. He was kicked off the team at Virginia after two failed drug tests, entered the supplemental draft and lasted only two seasons with Cincinnati.
The Bengals released Brooks in 2008.
"I felt like a girl broke up with me and broke my heart," he said. "It can also be a blessing in disguise. I didn't see it at the time. It paid off. I continued to work, came in here and worked hard."
The 49ers claimed Brooks off waivers, released him when they needed room on the roster for a receiver, then brought him back. Brooks made an immediate impact as a situational pass-rusher, tackling Minnesota's Percy Harvin for an 8-yard loss in Brooks' first game with the 49ers. He had a three-sack game against Arizona on "Monday Night Football" later in that 2009 season. He became a full-time starter for the first time last season.
Playing with some of the most talented defensive players in the NFL has helped, of course. Brooks took note of that.
"When you are (with) guys like Ray McDonald, I can roam around," Brooks said. "I can mess up, but Ray can make me look good, like I didn't mess up. That lets me do things I could not do if with another team."
Brooks' deal, announced by the team, firms up the left side of the 49ers' defense. It comes about seven months after the 49ers signed McDonald to a five-year deal that signaled McDonald's ascension into the starting lineup at left defensive end.
Brooks and McDonald will be playing together for some time, it appears.
"Me and Ray communicate on every play, especially when it is third down," Brooks said.
"A few coaches said that and told me that personally," Brooks said Tuesday. "That has always been a lie."
Brooks would not name the coaches Tuesday, and the story was not about them, anyway. The story was about the 49ers' new staff liking Brooks enough to sign him through 2017.
"I feel like this is where I should be," Brooks said. "These are the people that gave me a chance to go out there and get this contract."
Brooks had been a situational pass-rusher under the previous staff. He grew into that role and performed it well, but it was not clear whether Brooks would remain effective if asked to become an every-down player. The current staff, led by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, was obviously happy with the results after Brooks collected seven sacks in 16 starts.
"I just feel comfortable playing in this system," Brooks said. "(Fangio) doesn't ask for a lot. It is just easy to me."
That is a sign of good coaching. To suggest that Brooks hasn't changed would be unfair to his previous coaches, however. If Brooks is like most people, he's more mature now, at age 27, than he was in his early 20s. Still, there is some risk in handing millions to a player with Brooks' history. He was kicked off the team at Virginia after two failed drug tests, entered the supplemental draft and lasted only two seasons with Cincinnati.
The Bengals released Brooks in 2008.
"I felt like a girl broke up with me and broke my heart," he said. "It can also be a blessing in disguise. I didn't see it at the time. It paid off. I continued to work, came in here and worked hard."
The 49ers claimed Brooks off waivers, released him when they needed room on the roster for a receiver, then brought him back. Brooks made an immediate impact as a situational pass-rusher, tackling Minnesota's Percy Harvin for an 8-yard loss in Brooks' first game with the 49ers. He had a three-sack game against Arizona on "Monday Night Football" later in that 2009 season. He became a full-time starter for the first time last season.
Playing with some of the most talented defensive players in the NFL has helped, of course. Brooks took note of that.
"When you are (with) guys like Ray McDonald, I can roam around," Brooks said. "I can mess up, but Ray can make me look good, like I didn't mess up. That lets me do things I could not do if with another team."
Brooks' deal, announced by the team, firms up the left side of the 49ers' defense. It comes about seven months after the 49ers signed McDonald to a five-year deal that signaled McDonald's ascension into the starting lineup at left defensive end.
Brooks and McDonald will be playing together for some time, it appears.
"Me and Ray communicate on every play, especially when it is third down," Brooks said.
A few odds and ends from around the NFC West on the Wednesday following Super Bowl XLVI:
Enjoy your Wednesday night.
- Ray McDonald's arrest on an outstanding warrant gives the San Francisco 49ers two known arrests in less than two weeks, both related to cases involving allegations of driving under the influence. Neither McDonald nor Aldon Smith has been convicted. McDonald did not commit a new driving-related offense. He apparently failed to complete or prove that he completed a diversionary program.
- Dave McGinnis jumped at the chance to reunite with Jeff Fisher and Gregg Williams on the St. Louis Rams' staff. McGinnis, the Rams' new assistant head coach, spoke with enthusiasm when asked about the opportunity during a conference call Wednesday. Fisher was the first person McGinnis called for advice when becoming Arizona Cardinals coach in 2000. Their philosophical roots go back to Buddy Ryan and the Chicago Bears. McGinnis joined Fisher in Tennessee after the Cardinals fired him.
- The Rams will interview the Pittsburgh Steelers' Omar Khan for their general manager's opening, Jim Thomas reports. Khan interviewed for Seattle's GM opening two years ago.
- Seattle's Marshawn Lynch's agent of record has indeed changed with Mike Sullivan leaving Octagon Worldwide for the Denver Broncos. Octagon's Doug Hendrickson has been the point person in negotiations, and that is continuing. Lynch is among several high-profile backs without contracts. The new labor agreement has changed the dynamics. Teams can now name running backs franchise players at a cost of less than $8 million, down from about $9.5 million.
- That would be Peyton Manning appearing in a photo on the Arizona Cardinals' website. The accompanying story was not about Manning or where the Indianapolis Colts' quarterback might land this offseason. It was about John McNulty's move to quarterbacks coach and Frank Reich's hiring as receivers coach. Reich was Manning's position coach in Indianapolis, but he will replace McNulty as receivers coach.
Enjoy your Wednesday night.
The truth hurts: How injuries affected West
January, 28, 2012
Jan 28
8:00
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The San Francisco 49ers have become the hunted in the NFC West.
Having already take aim at their 2011 turnover differential, let us consider another reason for a potential 2012 regression from 13-3.
"Repeating the 2011 relative lack of injuries on the 49ers may be as hard as replicating the turnover ratio," Michael Rally contended via Twitter.
Injuries did slow and/or sideline some of the 49ers' most important players, including running back Frank Gore and linebacker Patrick Willis. Starting receiver Josh Morgan missed most of the season. A freak jaw injury sidelined tight end Delanie Walker late in the season. A hamstring injury slowed defensive end Ray McDonald.
But in looking at injured-reserve lists, the 49ers definitely fared better than their division rivals. They finished the regular season with five players on IR. The other three NFC West teams had a combined 39.
I've broken out the IR lists by team and position, based on where teams stood after Week 17. In some cases, teams released and/or reached injury settlements with players placed on IR previously. Teams usually keep on IR the players they value the most, however. The players listed below are the most relevant ones.
St. Louis Rams (16)
Fullback: Brit Miller
Receiver: Danny Amendola, Mark Clayton, Greg Salas
Tight end: Mike Hoomanawanui
Offensive line: guard Jacob Bell, Rodger Saffold, Jason Smith
Defensive line: Jermelle Cudjo
Linebacker: Josh Hull
Cornerback: Ron Bartell, Bradley Fletcher, Al Harris, Brian Jackson, Marquis Johnson, Jerome Murphy
Comment: Quarterback Sam Bradford was injured much of the year without landing on IR. The Rams ran through several unlisted cornerbacks as well. That position was hit hard. Losing both starting offensive tackles is never good, but Smith wasn't a huge positive factor on the right side. The team was arguably better off without him in the lineup.
Seattle Seahawks (15)
Receiver: Kris Durham, Mike Williams, Sidney Rice
Tight end: John Carlson
Offensive line: John Moffitt, James Carpenter, Russell Okung
Defensive line: Jimmy Wilkerson
Linebacker: Jameson Konz, Matt McCoy, David Vobora, Dexter Davis
Cornerback: Marcus Trufant, Walter Thurmond, Ron Parker
Comment: The Seahawks remained strong against the run largely because their line was healthier this season. Losing three-fifths of the starting offensive line could not stop Marshawn Lynch from producing at a high level. Rookie Richard Sherman capitalized on injuries at cornerback. Good, young depth helped Seattle weather injuries well.
Arizona Cardinals (8)
Quarterback: Max Hall
Running back: Ryan Williams
Offensive line: Brandon Keith, Floyd Womack
Defensive line: Dan Williams
Linebacker: Joey Porter
Cornerback: Crezdon Butler, Greg Toler
Comment: Ryan Williams' knee injury affected the team significantly. The injury situation was worse overall than the list would indicate. Quarterback Kevin Kolb missed seven starts with foot and concussion problems. Running back Beanie Wells played hurt much of the year and had a hard time producing late in the season. Adrian Wilson played through a torn biceps and got better as the season progressed.
San Francisco 49ers (5)
Receiver: Dontavia Bogan, Josh Morgan
Tight end: Nate Byham
Defensive line: Will Tukuafu
Cornerback: Curtis Holcomb
Comment: Byham was a solid blocking tight end. The team missed Morgan, especially late in the year. Gore's production diminished after he suffered an apparent knee injury in Week 10. Overall, though, the 49ers were healthy. They inflicted more injuries than they suffered, knocking out several opposing runners, including Felix Jones, LeGarrette Blount, Jahvid Best, Steven Jackson and Pierre Thomas.
Having already take aim at their 2011 turnover differential, let us consider another reason for a potential 2012 regression from 13-3.
"Repeating the 2011 relative lack of injuries on the 49ers may be as hard as replicating the turnover ratio," Michael Rally contended via Twitter.
Injuries did slow and/or sideline some of the 49ers' most important players, including running back Frank Gore and linebacker Patrick Willis. Starting receiver Josh Morgan missed most of the season. A freak jaw injury sidelined tight end Delanie Walker late in the season. A hamstring injury slowed defensive end Ray McDonald.
But in looking at injured-reserve lists, the 49ers definitely fared better than their division rivals. They finished the regular season with five players on IR. The other three NFC West teams had a combined 39.
I've broken out the IR lists by team and position, based on where teams stood after Week 17. In some cases, teams released and/or reached injury settlements with players placed on IR previously. Teams usually keep on IR the players they value the most, however. The players listed below are the most relevant ones.
St. Louis Rams (16)
Fullback: Brit Miller
Receiver: Danny Amendola, Mark Clayton, Greg Salas
Tight end: Mike Hoomanawanui
Offensive line: guard Jacob Bell, Rodger Saffold, Jason Smith
Defensive line: Jermelle Cudjo
Linebacker: Josh Hull
Cornerback: Ron Bartell, Bradley Fletcher, Al Harris, Brian Jackson, Marquis Johnson, Jerome Murphy
Comment: Quarterback Sam Bradford was injured much of the year without landing on IR. The Rams ran through several unlisted cornerbacks as well. That position was hit hard. Losing both starting offensive tackles is never good, but Smith wasn't a huge positive factor on the right side. The team was arguably better off without him in the lineup.
Seattle Seahawks (15)
Receiver: Kris Durham, Mike Williams, Sidney Rice
Tight end: John Carlson
Offensive line: John Moffitt, James Carpenter, Russell Okung
Defensive line: Jimmy Wilkerson
Linebacker: Jameson Konz, Matt McCoy, David Vobora, Dexter Davis
Cornerback: Marcus Trufant, Walter Thurmond, Ron Parker
Comment: The Seahawks remained strong against the run largely because their line was healthier this season. Losing three-fifths of the starting offensive line could not stop Marshawn Lynch from producing at a high level. Rookie Richard Sherman capitalized on injuries at cornerback. Good, young depth helped Seattle weather injuries well.
Arizona Cardinals (8)
Quarterback: Max Hall
Running back: Ryan Williams
Offensive line: Brandon Keith, Floyd Womack
Defensive line: Dan Williams
Linebacker: Joey Porter
Cornerback: Crezdon Butler, Greg Toler
Comment: Ryan Williams' knee injury affected the team significantly. The injury situation was worse overall than the list would indicate. Quarterback Kevin Kolb missed seven starts with foot and concussion problems. Running back Beanie Wells played hurt much of the year and had a hard time producing late in the season. Adrian Wilson played through a torn biceps and got better as the season progressed.
San Francisco 49ers (5)
Receiver: Dontavia Bogan, Josh Morgan
Tight end: Nate Byham
Defensive line: Will Tukuafu
Cornerback: Curtis Holcomb
Comment: Byham was a solid blocking tight end. The team missed Morgan, especially late in the year. Gore's production diminished after he suffered an apparent knee injury in Week 10. Overall, though, the 49ers were healthy. They inflicted more injuries than they suffered, knocking out several opposing runners, including Felix Jones, LeGarrette Blount, Jahvid Best, Steven Jackson and Pierre Thomas.
This is going to be a fantastic week, probably the best for the NFC West since Arizona's Super Bowl appearance three years ago.
It could get a whole lot better with a San Francisco 49ers victory over the New York Giants in the NFC Championship Game.
Fans for other teams in the division will have a hard time pulling for a despised rival, of course. But if you think criticism of the division has too often overlooked NFC West postseason successes, another 49ers victory could provide additional relief.
A 49ers victory over the Giants would give all four current NFC West teams one Super Bowl appearance since February 2002, right before the league realigned into eight four-team divisions. The NFC South is the only other division with more than two during that time (Carolina, Tampa Bay and New Orleans).
Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News thinks the 49ers would have had an easier time against Green Bay than against the Giants. Kawakami: "I think Eli Manning is a very scary playoff QB -- when he’s throwing it well (like now), and has confidence in his receivers (like now), he is very tough to beat. The Giants are red-hot right now and they showed in 2007 that when they get red-hot, they’re nearly impossible to beat. It seems odd to say this, but I think Manning is a tougher out in the playoffs than either Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. Can’t exactly say why I think this, but I do." Noted: Manning's arm and size allow him to make throws other quarterbacks cannot make. I would expect the 49ers' defensive front to get much more pressure than Green Bay mounted, however.
Mark Purdy of the San Jose Mercury News says the 49ers should be happy to play at home, but not necessarily against the Giants. Purdy: "This is going to be a fascinating reboot, with lots of coaching brain power involved. The Giants have the NFL's oldest coach, Tom Coughlin, who is known for the right calls at the right times. The 49ers have rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh, who has made almost no wrong moves over the past three months." Noted: The 49ers fooled the Giants with an onside kick when the teams played in Week 10. They caught the Giants' front line retreating a little too quickly.
Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat expects the Giants to double-cover Vernon Davis, load up against the run and find out whether the 49ers' wide receivers can do enough for San Francisco to win. Cohn: "Here’s some good news for the offense. Delanie Walker wrote on Twitter that he worked out Sunday and he’s ready to play next weekend. Alex Smith needs a secondary receiver to complement Davis and Walker can be that guy. Last time the Niners played the Giants, Walker led all Niners with six receptions for 69 yards."
Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com updates the 49ers' injury situation. Maiocco: "Ray McDonald was noticeably limping throughout the game with a right hamstring strain, which he sustained in the regular-season finale against the St. Louis Rams. Earlier this season, McDonald missed a game with a left hamstring strain. McDonald, who typically plays every down, played just 44 of the 49ers' 80 defensive snaps. Backup lineman Ricky Jean Francois played 36 snaps. However, McDonald was on the field for the 49ers' final 12 defensive plays of the game."
Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch assesses what Jeff Fisher's hiring means for the Rams under owner Stan Kroenke. Miklasz: "Kroenke is financially committed. Kroenke edged out another billionaire, Miami owner Steve Ross, in the tense competition for Fisher. When Fisher's contract is finalized, he'll be among the NFL's highest-paid coaches with an annual salary that should average at least $7 million. Fisher was also granted a generous budget for hiring assistant coaches. Kroenke undoubtedly agreed to bankroll other football-related hires made by Fisher. Kroenke is doing more than paying a head coach; he's funding a new football operation. That's a major investment."
Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch updates where the Rams stand after hiring Fisher. On the general manager search: "Dawson may look like the front-runner because he has worked with Fisher in Tennessee. But he has less experience than most on the Rams' candidate list, including another Tennessee personnel department exec, Ruston Webster. The Rams have yet to interview Webster, although they have received permission to do so from Tennessee. The same holds true for Steve Keim of Arizona, Joey Clinkscales of the New York Jets, Brian Gaine of Miami and Tom Telesco of Indianapolis."
Also from Thomas: Brian Schottenheimer is among the candidates to become offensive coordinator for the Rams. Noted: I'll have more on this one later Monday morning.
Kathleen Nelson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch polls Rams players for thoughts on Fisher. One theme: That Fisher's background as a player helps him understand the physical demands of the game.
Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic updates the Todd Haley situation in relation to the Cardinals. He also serves up a couple other coaching-related tidbits. Somers: "As far as I know, line coach Russ Grimm and tight ends coach Freddie Kitchens have not re-signed with the Cardinals. They have been offered contracts. Grimm worked with Jaguars coach Mike Mularkey in Pittsburgh, so maybe Jacksonville is a possible landing spot for him. But will the Jags be willing to spent the $1.5 million or so to hire Grimm? That's what he makes in Arizona. With Kitchens, word is Rams coach Jeff Fisher thinks Kitchens is an excellent coach. Kitchens name has also been tied to openings at Alabama, his alma mater." Noted: The potential for Grimm's departure would have been big news in Arizona a couple years ago. Does it still have that feel?
Darren Urban of azcardinals.com checks in with Cardinals running back Ryan Williams, who is rehabilitating from the knee injury he suffered as a rookie during the 2011 preseason. Williams: "No injury is going to stop me, unless one of my legs is (cut) off somewhere and I only have one leg. I am too self-motivated to be the best player I can be. I want my career to last 10 to 14 years. Ten is the least for me. I won't stop. I want my career to be here … but if something happens where it isn’t, all 31 other teams will have to stand in front of me and tell me no for me not to be a football player and even then, I’d probably have to hear it again. That’s how much football means to me."
Brady Henderson of 710ESPN Seattle passes along thoughts from former Seahawks quarterback Jon Kitna, who is entering into retirement. Sounds like Kitna will do some coaching at the high school level in the Tacoma area. Kitna: "Football was great, but as you get to the end of your career you kind of realize that it's more than just football. It's relationships that you form and things like that. So I consider myself awfully, awfully blessed to have played 16 years in this league. ... There's a lot of things that, for me, I'm excited about doing after football, and that would be teaching and coaching and pouring into the lives of inner-city kids here in Tacoma. So I'm definitely looking forward to that. ... I'm really excited about the next phase of life for me and my family."
It could get a whole lot better with a San Francisco 49ers victory over the New York Giants in the NFC Championship Game.
Fans for other teams in the division will have a hard time pulling for a despised rival, of course. But if you think criticism of the division has too often overlooked NFC West postseason successes, another 49ers victory could provide additional relief.
A 49ers victory over the Giants would give all four current NFC West teams one Super Bowl appearance since February 2002, right before the league realigned into eight four-team divisions. The NFC South is the only other division with more than two during that time (Carolina, Tampa Bay and New Orleans).
Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News thinks the 49ers would have had an easier time against Green Bay than against the Giants. Kawakami: "I think Eli Manning is a very scary playoff QB -- when he’s throwing it well (like now), and has confidence in his receivers (like now), he is very tough to beat. The Giants are red-hot right now and they showed in 2007 that when they get red-hot, they’re nearly impossible to beat. It seems odd to say this, but I think Manning is a tougher out in the playoffs than either Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. Can’t exactly say why I think this, but I do." Noted: Manning's arm and size allow him to make throws other quarterbacks cannot make. I would expect the 49ers' defensive front to get much more pressure than Green Bay mounted, however.
Mark Purdy of the San Jose Mercury News says the 49ers should be happy to play at home, but not necessarily against the Giants. Purdy: "This is going to be a fascinating reboot, with lots of coaching brain power involved. The Giants have the NFL's oldest coach, Tom Coughlin, who is known for the right calls at the right times. The 49ers have rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh, who has made almost no wrong moves over the past three months." Noted: The 49ers fooled the Giants with an onside kick when the teams played in Week 10. They caught the Giants' front line retreating a little too quickly.
Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat expects the Giants to double-cover Vernon Davis, load up against the run and find out whether the 49ers' wide receivers can do enough for San Francisco to win. Cohn: "Here’s some good news for the offense. Delanie Walker wrote on Twitter that he worked out Sunday and he’s ready to play next weekend. Alex Smith needs a secondary receiver to complement Davis and Walker can be that guy. Last time the Niners played the Giants, Walker led all Niners with six receptions for 69 yards."
Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com updates the 49ers' injury situation. Maiocco: "Ray McDonald was noticeably limping throughout the game with a right hamstring strain, which he sustained in the regular-season finale against the St. Louis Rams. Earlier this season, McDonald missed a game with a left hamstring strain. McDonald, who typically plays every down, played just 44 of the 49ers' 80 defensive snaps. Backup lineman Ricky Jean Francois played 36 snaps. However, McDonald was on the field for the 49ers' final 12 defensive plays of the game."
Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch assesses what Jeff Fisher's hiring means for the Rams under owner Stan Kroenke. Miklasz: "Kroenke is financially committed. Kroenke edged out another billionaire, Miami owner Steve Ross, in the tense competition for Fisher. When Fisher's contract is finalized, he'll be among the NFL's highest-paid coaches with an annual salary that should average at least $7 million. Fisher was also granted a generous budget for hiring assistant coaches. Kroenke undoubtedly agreed to bankroll other football-related hires made by Fisher. Kroenke is doing more than paying a head coach; he's funding a new football operation. That's a major investment."
Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch updates where the Rams stand after hiring Fisher. On the general manager search: "Dawson may look like the front-runner because he has worked with Fisher in Tennessee. But he has less experience than most on the Rams' candidate list, including another Tennessee personnel department exec, Ruston Webster. The Rams have yet to interview Webster, although they have received permission to do so from Tennessee. The same holds true for Steve Keim of Arizona, Joey Clinkscales of the New York Jets, Brian Gaine of Miami and Tom Telesco of Indianapolis."
Also from Thomas: Brian Schottenheimer is among the candidates to become offensive coordinator for the Rams. Noted: I'll have more on this one later Monday morning.
Kathleen Nelson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch polls Rams players for thoughts on Fisher. One theme: That Fisher's background as a player helps him understand the physical demands of the game.
Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic updates the Todd Haley situation in relation to the Cardinals. He also serves up a couple other coaching-related tidbits. Somers: "As far as I know, line coach Russ Grimm and tight ends coach Freddie Kitchens have not re-signed with the Cardinals. They have been offered contracts. Grimm worked with Jaguars coach Mike Mularkey in Pittsburgh, so maybe Jacksonville is a possible landing spot for him. But will the Jags be willing to spent the $1.5 million or so to hire Grimm? That's what he makes in Arizona. With Kitchens, word is Rams coach Jeff Fisher thinks Kitchens is an excellent coach. Kitchens name has also been tied to openings at Alabama, his alma mater." Noted: The potential for Grimm's departure would have been big news in Arizona a couple years ago. Does it still have that feel?
Darren Urban of azcardinals.com checks in with Cardinals running back Ryan Williams, who is rehabilitating from the knee injury he suffered as a rookie during the 2011 preseason. Williams: "No injury is going to stop me, unless one of my legs is (cut) off somewhere and I only have one leg. I am too self-motivated to be the best player I can be. I want my career to last 10 to 14 years. Ten is the least for me. I won't stop. I want my career to be here … but if something happens where it isn’t, all 31 other teams will have to stand in front of me and tell me no for me not to be a football player and even then, I’d probably have to hear it again. That’s how much football means to me."
Brady Henderson of 710ESPN Seattle passes along thoughts from former Seahawks quarterback Jon Kitna, who is entering into retirement. Sounds like Kitna will do some coaching at the high school level in the Tacoma area. Kitna: "Football was great, but as you get to the end of your career you kind of realize that it's more than just football. It's relationships that you form and things like that. So I consider myself awfully, awfully blessed to have played 16 years in this league. ... There's a lot of things that, for me, I'm excited about doing after football, and that would be teaching and coaching and pouring into the lives of inner-city kids here in Tacoma. So I'm definitely looking forward to that. ... I'm really excited about the next phase of life for me and my family."Putting wrap on 49ers' playoff preparations
January, 12, 2012
Jan 12
7:40
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- The San Francisco 49ers wanted their pregame meal medium-rare.
"The analogy would be not to overcook it, like a burnt piece of meat," coach Jim Harbaugh said Thursday.
Harbaugh sought the right combination of focus and looseness during the nearly two weeks his team has been preparing for the franchise's first playoff game in nine years. He did not want players trying to do too much simply because the stakes would be higher when the playoff-tested New Orleans Saints visited Candlestick Park on Saturday.
"Trust the team," Harbaugh said.
The mood in the 49ers' locker room after practice seemed normal. The space was crowded by an influx of reporters, including Jim Trotter from Sports Illustrated, Steve Wyche from NFL Network, Mike Silver from Yahoo! Sports and Nancy Gay from Fox Sports.
A crowd grew around Alex Smith while the quarterback chatted informally at his locker. Smith reflected on growing up in San Diego and watching the Chargers when Harbaugh was their quarterback. He confirmed a story Harbaugh told the 49ers about how fleeting playoff appearances can be. Harbaugh started five playoff games, including four in a two-year period with Indianapolis, but he never made it back after that.
"He told us that story, him thinking there would be other days," Smith said. "These playoff opportunities are rare. Some guys don't ever get them. I played with Takeo [Spikes] and he is still looking for it. You're not guaranteed anything. Just got to take advantage of it now."
The 49ers appear mostly healthy. Tight end Delanie Walker (jaw) will miss the game, as expected. Ray McDonald (hamstring), Chris Culliver (knee), Ted Ginn Jr. (ankle) and Kyle Williams (concussion) were limited in practice Thursday. All are expected to be available.
"I'm pleased with our preparations, confident in our plan, happy with the way the players prepared," Harbaugh said. "Our team goes into this game confident and bold, and with a great amount of respect for the New Orleans Saints -- a great amount of respect for who they are, what they do, what they are capable of."
"The analogy would be not to overcook it, like a burnt piece of meat," coach Jim Harbaugh said Thursday.
Harbaugh sought the right combination of focus and looseness during the nearly two weeks his team has been preparing for the franchise's first playoff game in nine years. He did not want players trying to do too much simply because the stakes would be higher when the playoff-tested New Orleans Saints visited Candlestick Park on Saturday.
2012 NFL Postseason
The postseason is here. Check out our playoff pages and stay tuned to the NFL Nation blog for all your postseason coverage. Road to Indy
• Playoff page: Denver-New England
• Playoff page: Houston-Baltimore
• Playoff page: New Orleans-S.F.
• Playoff page: N.Y. Giants-Green Bay
• Postseason schedule: Divisional round
The mood in the 49ers' locker room after practice seemed normal. The space was crowded by an influx of reporters, including Jim Trotter from Sports Illustrated, Steve Wyche from NFL Network, Mike Silver from Yahoo! Sports and Nancy Gay from Fox Sports.
A crowd grew around Alex Smith while the quarterback chatted informally at his locker. Smith reflected on growing up in San Diego and watching the Chargers when Harbaugh was their quarterback. He confirmed a story Harbaugh told the 49ers about how fleeting playoff appearances can be. Harbaugh started five playoff games, including four in a two-year period with Indianapolis, but he never made it back after that.
"He told us that story, him thinking there would be other days," Smith said. "These playoff opportunities are rare. Some guys don't ever get them. I played with Takeo [Spikes] and he is still looking for it. You're not guaranteed anything. Just got to take advantage of it now."
The 49ers appear mostly healthy. Tight end Delanie Walker (jaw) will miss the game, as expected. Ray McDonald (hamstring), Chris Culliver (knee), Ted Ginn Jr. (ankle) and Kyle Williams (concussion) were limited in practice Thursday. All are expected to be available.
"I'm pleased with our preparations, confident in our plan, happy with the way the players prepared," Harbaugh said. "Our team goes into this game confident and bold, and with a great amount of respect for the New Orleans Saints -- a great amount of respect for who they are, what they do, what they are capable of."
The San Francisco 49ers opened their 13-3 season with a mostly dominant defensive performance against the Seattle Seahawks.
Ray McDonald's performance that day -- six tackles, including three for losses, plus a sack -- served notice the team had made the right call in paying starter money to the former backup defensive lineman. McDonald finished the season with career highs for starts (15) and sacks (5.5). He forced two fumbles, both in the final five weeks of the season.
Pete Prisco from CBSSports.com singled out McDonald as an under-the-radar player to watch for the 49ers against New Orleans in the divisional playoff round Saturday. This is a good call among several possibilities. Cornerback Carlos Rogers and free safety Dashon Goldson aren't quite under-the-radar players -- both are headed to the Pro Bowl -- but neither commands as much attention as established stars Patrick Willis or Justin Smith.
Rogers and Goldson showed a big-play flair during the regular season. Rogers set a career single-season high with six interceptions, only two fewer than he collected during six previous NFL seasons. Goldson's six interceptions were also a career high. He had five in four seasons previously.
K.C. Joyner, who made friends on the NFC West blog by calling them potential playoff pretenders two months ago, thinks the 49ers will have ample opportunities to force turnovers against the Saints. A little pressure from McDonald and friends would help Rogers, Goldson and the secondary, of course.
Joyner, writing for Insider subscribers
, cites evidence suggesting Drew Brees' willingness to take chances could cost him against the 49ers' defense. Counter to intuition, he says the 49ers might be best served getting into a higher-scoring game with New Orleans.
Joyner notes that the 49ers scored at least 20 points in every home game this season. He says the Saints usually gave up that many or more on the road, and turnovers have often played a role. Brees has a 7-25 starting record when the Saints give up at least 20 points and lose the turnover battle. San Francisco tied an NFL record with only 10 turnovers this season.
I was also interested in a historical reference Joyner made in tying the Saints to other teams that set offensive records during the regular season. They run counter to the idea that New Orleans would automatically benefit from a wide-open game.
Ray McDonald's performance that day -- six tackles, including three for losses, plus a sack -- served notice the team had made the right call in paying starter money to the former backup defensive lineman. McDonald finished the season with career highs for starts (15) and sacks (5.5). He forced two fumbles, both in the final five weeks of the season.
2012 NFL Postseason
The postseason is here. Check out our playoff pages and stay tuned to the NFL Nation blog for all your postseason coverage. Road to Indy
• Playoff page: Denver-New England
• Playoff page: Houston-Baltimore
• Playoff page: New Orleans-S.F.
• Playoff page: N.Y. Giants-Green Bay
• Postseason schedule: Divisional round
Rogers and Goldson showed a big-play flair during the regular season. Rogers set a career single-season high with six interceptions, only two fewer than he collected during six previous NFL seasons. Goldson's six interceptions were also a career high. He had five in four seasons previously.
K.C. Joyner, who made friends on the NFC West blog by calling them potential playoff pretenders two months ago, thinks the 49ers will have ample opportunities to force turnovers against the Saints. A little pressure from McDonald and friends would help Rogers, Goldson and the secondary, of course.
Joyner, writing for Insider subscribers
, cites evidence suggesting Drew Brees' willingness to take chances could cost him against the 49ers' defense. Counter to intuition, he says the 49ers might be best served getting into a higher-scoring game with New Orleans.
Joyner notes that the 49ers scored at least 20 points in every home game this season. He says the Saints usually gave up that many or more on the road, and turnovers have often played a role. Brees has a 7-25 starting record when the Saints give up at least 20 points and lose the turnover battle. San Francisco tied an NFL record with only 10 turnovers this season.
I was also interested in a historical reference Joyner made in tying the Saints to other teams that set offensive records during the regular season. They run counter to the idea that New Orleans would automatically benefit from a wide-open game.
A look at my all-NFC West picks for the 2011 season, continuing with the defense:
The chart breaks down all-division choices from 2008-10, plus this season. Still to come: special teams. Let the discussions begin.
.
- San Francisco 49ers rookie Aldon Smith defied categorization. I wasn't going to list him at the expense of every-down players at defensive end or linebacker. Neither was I going to leave him off the team after Smith collected 14 sacks. Smith commanded his own category as a situational pass-rusher. Consider that a compliment.
- Some St. Louis Rams fans I know will insist James Laurinaitis should show up among the linebackers. I wasn't going to list him above Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman or Daryl Washington. The Cardinals blocked Laurinaitis well while Beanie Wells set a franchise rushing record with 228 yards. The Rams ranked 32nd against the run most of the season, settling in at No. 31. Dallas' DeMarco Murray also set a franchise single-game rushing record against the Rams. Laurinaitis was not primarily to blame, obviously, but neither was he able to stem the bleeding. He remains a good player with a bright future, but this was not his year.
- The choices along the defensive line forced leaving off very good players such as Darnell Dockett, Ray McDonald and Red Bryant. Alan Branch also played well after leaving Arizona for Seattle. Chris Clemons' obvious strength as a pass-rusher and strong play against the run made him stand out. Insider subscribers might have noticed Clemons showing up third behind Jared Allen and Jason Babin on a list of most valuable sack artists. The piece ranked pass-rushers by the importance of their sacks relative to game situations.
- Seattle's Kam Chancellor was a narrow choice over Arizona's Adrian Wilson at strong safety. I had no problem with Wilson beating out Chancellor in Pro Bowl balloting. Wilson earned that recognition. He was a worthy choice. I do think Chancellor made a bigger impact from start to finish this season, and he did it for a defense that was far more consistent. Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. agreed with me on that choice. An NFL scout I called for another opinion also gave Chancellor a slight edge. Both players were legitimate choices.
- The division has good, young prospects at cornerback. Arizona's Patrick Peterson will probably show up on this team next season. He was trending that way. The 49ers' Carlos Rogers was an easy choice. Seattle's Richard Sherman enjoyed a breakout rookie season and was even better, I thought, than teammate Brandon Browner, a first-alternate to the Pro Bowl.
The chart breaks down all-division choices from 2008-10, plus this season. Still to come: special teams. Let the discussions begin.
.
Nearly five months have passed since I set team-by-team expectations for the NFC West based on what I'd seen at training camps.
The San Francisco 49ers outperformed expectations. The St. Louis Rams fell far short. The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks finished right about where I had projected, but there were more ups and downs along the way than almost anyone could have anticipated.
Let's reconcile expectations with results and try to learn something along the way.
St. Louis Rams
Projected wins: 8
Actual wins: 2
Following up: A tough schedule meant the Rams would need quarterback Sam Bradford to make significant improvement under new coordinator Josh McDaniels. I expected that to happen after speaking with Bradford and McDaniels in some detail during camp. I also expected the Rams' defense to remain a strength after adding veteran role players from winning organizations. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Injuries played a significant role on offense in general and at cornerback, a position I outlined as lacking sufficient depth. But the offensive line wasn't playing well even when the starters were together.
Lesson learned: Bradford and the Rams struggled down the stretch to close out the 2010 season. That should have invited more skepticism from me. I gave Bradford and McDaniels the benefit of the doubt based on Bradford's poise and the confidence both showed heading into the season. The narrative of an ascending young quarterback should not have been so persuasive. Adding veteran role players seemed to make sense at the time because the Rams weren't making significant financial commitments to them. However, signing so many older players meant the team lacked young depth. That should have set off alarms.
Arizona Cardinals
Projected wins: 7-8
Actual wins: 8
Following up: It's tough to take full credit for nailing this projection given how it happened. The team started 1-6 and rallied to 8-8 despite never getting much from newly acquired quarterback Kevin Kolb. I thought Arizona would have needed more games from Kolb to improve its record by three victories. Arizona's ability to manufacture victories through the return game and fourth-quarter rallies made up the difference. The concerns I raised about Kolb's durability in relation to the Cardinals' pass protection hit the mark. The defense showed more improvement than I had anticipated.
Lesson learned: Never underestimate strong safety Adrian Wilson. I had a hard time believing Wilson would hold up physically through a full season after suffering a torn biceps tendon during camp. Wilson not only held up, he got stronger as the season progressed. Wilson even earned a trip to the Pro Bowl. The Cardinals drove home a couple additional lessons this season. They showed that wheeling and dealing aggressively in free agency and through trades can build excitement without delivering immediate results. They also reminded us to withhold final judgments until late in a season. The view from 8-8 looks a lot better than the one from 1-6. But as we look ahead to 2012, we should not assume the Cardinals will continue on their recent trajectory. Every season is different.
San Francisco 49ers
Projected wins: 6-7
Actual wins: 13
Following up: My general feel for the team was accurate. How it would translate into victories was not. I thought the 49ers would be difficult to analyze in the short term because they had a new coaching staff. I thought better-than-expected play at quarterback could quickly upgrade their prospects. And I figured lower expectations from the outside would help. "I am saying there's a chance," was how I put it back in August. A chance for 13-3? Never saw that coming. In retrospect, I should have listed the 49ers' win range as "6+7" instead of 6-7.
Lesson learned: New coach Jim Harbaugh and staff impressed during camp, but I underestimated how much competent coaching would mean for the 49ers right away. The current coaches have done a phenomenal job fitting together how the offense, defense and special teams complement one another. While I allowed for the fact that San Francisco's defensive changes were by design, I wasn't convinced they would pay off. They did, and hugely. The 49ers' personnel people also get credit for resisting temptations to spend lavishly in free agency. They trusted their instincts and got great contributions from NaVorro Bowman and Carlos Rogers in particular. They paid Ray McDonald and parted with Aubrayo Franklin when no one was saying they should do those things. So, if and when the 49ers let players walk in free agency, we should realize things could be going to plan.
Seattle Seahawks
Projected wins: 5-7
Actual wins: 7
Following up: The Seahawks met expectations and probably exceeded them after suffering so many injuries to their offensive line and elsewhere. Seattle was, as expected, a team "eager to let young players develop before acting more boldly to upgrade the quarterback position in the offseason." The Seahawks were an easy team to read for those not blinded by coach Pete Carroll's public support for Tarvaris Jackson. They still need another pass-rusher and better play at quarterback to take the next step.
Lesson learned: Tom Cable is a fantastic offensive line coach, for one. Also, general manager John Schneider and the Seahawks' personnel people should get the benefit of the doubt on their evaluations. They repeatedly got positive results when turning to young players. They replaced Lawyer Milloy with Kam Chancellor and came out way ahead. They replaced Aaron Curry with rookie K.J. Wright and were correct, again. They continually churned the roster and made themselves deeper. They turned a project from the CFL (Brandon Browner) into a Pro Bowl first-alternate even while rookie fifth-round choice Richard Sherman became their best corner. So, if the Seahawks do not show interest in Green Bay quarterback Matt Flynn, we can trust it's because Schneider, formerly of the Packers, knows better.
The San Francisco 49ers outperformed expectations. The St. Louis Rams fell far short. The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks finished right about where I had projected, but there were more ups and downs along the way than almost anyone could have anticipated.
Let's reconcile expectations with results and try to learn something along the way.
St. Louis Rams
Projected wins: 8
Actual wins: 2
Following up: A tough schedule meant the Rams would need quarterback Sam Bradford to make significant improvement under new coordinator Josh McDaniels. I expected that to happen after speaking with Bradford and McDaniels in some detail during camp. I also expected the Rams' defense to remain a strength after adding veteran role players from winning organizations. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Injuries played a significant role on offense in general and at cornerback, a position I outlined as lacking sufficient depth. But the offensive line wasn't playing well even when the starters were together.
Lesson learned: Bradford and the Rams struggled down the stretch to close out the 2010 season. That should have invited more skepticism from me. I gave Bradford and McDaniels the benefit of the doubt based on Bradford's poise and the confidence both showed heading into the season. The narrative of an ascending young quarterback should not have been so persuasive. Adding veteran role players seemed to make sense at the time because the Rams weren't making significant financial commitments to them. However, signing so many older players meant the team lacked young depth. That should have set off alarms.
Arizona Cardinals
Projected wins: 7-8
Actual wins: 8
Following up: It's tough to take full credit for nailing this projection given how it happened. The team started 1-6 and rallied to 8-8 despite never getting much from newly acquired quarterback Kevin Kolb. I thought Arizona would have needed more games from Kolb to improve its record by three victories. Arizona's ability to manufacture victories through the return game and fourth-quarter rallies made up the difference. The concerns I raised about Kolb's durability in relation to the Cardinals' pass protection hit the mark. The defense showed more improvement than I had anticipated.
Lesson learned: Never underestimate strong safety Adrian Wilson. I had a hard time believing Wilson would hold up physically through a full season after suffering a torn biceps tendon during camp. Wilson not only held up, he got stronger as the season progressed. Wilson even earned a trip to the Pro Bowl. The Cardinals drove home a couple additional lessons this season. They showed that wheeling and dealing aggressively in free agency and through trades can build excitement without delivering immediate results. They also reminded us to withhold final judgments until late in a season. The view from 8-8 looks a lot better than the one from 1-6. But as we look ahead to 2012, we should not assume the Cardinals will continue on their recent trajectory. Every season is different.
San Francisco 49ers
Projected wins: 6-7
Actual wins: 13
Following up: My general feel for the team was accurate. How it would translate into victories was not. I thought the 49ers would be difficult to analyze in the short term because they had a new coaching staff. I thought better-than-expected play at quarterback could quickly upgrade their prospects. And I figured lower expectations from the outside would help. "I am saying there's a chance," was how I put it back in August. A chance for 13-3? Never saw that coming. In retrospect, I should have listed the 49ers' win range as "6+7" instead of 6-7.
Lesson learned: New coach Jim Harbaugh and staff impressed during camp, but I underestimated how much competent coaching would mean for the 49ers right away. The current coaches have done a phenomenal job fitting together how the offense, defense and special teams complement one another. While I allowed for the fact that San Francisco's defensive changes were by design, I wasn't convinced they would pay off. They did, and hugely. The 49ers' personnel people also get credit for resisting temptations to spend lavishly in free agency. They trusted their instincts and got great contributions from NaVorro Bowman and Carlos Rogers in particular. They paid Ray McDonald and parted with Aubrayo Franklin when no one was saying they should do those things. So, if and when the 49ers let players walk in free agency, we should realize things could be going to plan.
Seattle Seahawks
Projected wins: 5-7
Actual wins: 7
Following up: The Seahawks met expectations and probably exceeded them after suffering so many injuries to their offensive line and elsewhere. Seattle was, as expected, a team "eager to let young players develop before acting more boldly to upgrade the quarterback position in the offseason." The Seahawks were an easy team to read for those not blinded by coach Pete Carroll's public support for Tarvaris Jackson. They still need another pass-rusher and better play at quarterback to take the next step.
Lesson learned: Tom Cable is a fantastic offensive line coach, for one. Also, general manager John Schneider and the Seahawks' personnel people should get the benefit of the doubt on their evaluations. They repeatedly got positive results when turning to young players. They replaced Lawyer Milloy with Kam Chancellor and came out way ahead. They replaced Aaron Curry with rookie K.J. Wright and were correct, again. They continually churned the roster and made themselves deeper. They turned a project from the CFL (Brandon Browner) into a Pro Bowl first-alternate even while rookie fifth-round choice Richard Sherman became their best corner. So, if the Seahawks do not show interest in Green Bay quarterback Matt Flynn, we can trust it's because Schneider, formerly of the Packers, knows better.
» NFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South » AFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South
Perfect sense: Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Wilson, Andy Lee, David Akers, Justin Smith and Patrick Willis are past Pro Bowl selections enjoying strong seasons. Their selections made perfect sense. No St. Louis Rams made it. Steven Jackson was worthy of consideration, but the team's 2-13 record made his exclusion understandable.
Patrick Peterson's four touchdowns on punt returns made him an extremely worthy if somewhat surprising choice over Devin Hester, whose reputation figured to count for something.
It was good to see voters recognize the NFC West's talent on special teams and in the secondary. Wilson and Seattle's Earl Thomas are the starting safeties. Carlos Rogers is a starting corner, and Seattle's Brandon Browner, a first alternate, could very well join him in the game itself because at least one of the NFC starters, Charles Woodson, could be playing in the Super Bowl.
Made it on rep: From the NFC West? Are you kidding? This division usually fights for whatever it can get. Wilson made it on reputation last season, but he was very much deserving this time, even though it came at the expense of Seattle's Kam Chancellor, a first alternate. None of the players selected made it on rep, in my view.
We could debate the worthiness of a few, including 49ers free safety Dashon Goldson. But he didn't have much of a rep. He made big plays for a 12-3 team and got noticed despite some inconsistencies in his game. The 49ers' success cleared the way for Goldson and another first-timer, left tackle Joe Staley.
Frank Gore always deserves consideration, and his numbers say he did not make it strictly on reputation, but a case can be made that other backs were producing at a higher level more recently. Gore's dropped passes have been a problem as well.
Got robbed: Seattle's Marshawn Lynch, San Francisco's Aldon Smith, St. Louis' Chris Long and Arizona's Calais Campbell come to mind immediately.
Lynch has arguably run more impressively than any other back in the conference of late. He ended the 49ers' streaks without allowing a 100-yard rusher (36 games) or a rushing touchdown (15 games). Lynch was named a second alternate. He has a chance to earn a spot given that Matt Forte is injured and might not play in the game. I'm not sure which NFC back is first alternate, but Lynch would move up the list if Minnesota's injured Adrian Peterson held that distinction.
Aldon Smith has 14 sacks as a rookie, but he didn't make the Pro Bowl. In fact, Smith did not even show up on a list of 49ers alternates featuring NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Blake Costanzo, Vernon Davis, Ted Ginn Jr., Jonathan Goodwin, Mike Iupati, Ray McDonald, Bruce Miller and Donte Whitner.
Long has 13 sacks for a team that almost never faces favorable pass-rushing situations, but with multiple high-profile sack artists in the NFC, he did not make it. The Cardinals' Campbell gets overlooked playing defensive end in a 3-4 scheme, but he's been a dominant player. At least teammate Darnell Dockett was named an alternate.
Click here for the complete 2012 Pro Bowl roster.
Perfect sense: Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Wilson, Andy Lee, David Akers, Justin Smith and Patrick Willis are past Pro Bowl selections enjoying strong seasons. Their selections made perfect sense. No St. Louis Rams made it. Steven Jackson was worthy of consideration, but the team's 2-13 record made his exclusion understandable.
Patrick Peterson's four touchdowns on punt returns made him an extremely worthy if somewhat surprising choice over Devin Hester, whose reputation figured to count for something.
It was good to see voters recognize the NFC West's talent on special teams and in the secondary. Wilson and Seattle's Earl Thomas are the starting safeties. Carlos Rogers is a starting corner, and Seattle's Brandon Browner, a first alternate, could very well join him in the game itself because at least one of the NFC starters, Charles Woodson, could be playing in the Super Bowl.
Made it on rep: From the NFC West? Are you kidding? This division usually fights for whatever it can get. Wilson made it on reputation last season, but he was very much deserving this time, even though it came at the expense of Seattle's Kam Chancellor, a first alternate. None of the players selected made it on rep, in my view.
We could debate the worthiness of a few, including 49ers free safety Dashon Goldson. But he didn't have much of a rep. He made big plays for a 12-3 team and got noticed despite some inconsistencies in his game. The 49ers' success cleared the way for Goldson and another first-timer, left tackle Joe Staley.
Frank Gore always deserves consideration, and his numbers say he did not make it strictly on reputation, but a case can be made that other backs were producing at a higher level more recently. Gore's dropped passes have been a problem as well.
Got robbed: Seattle's Marshawn Lynch, San Francisco's Aldon Smith, St. Louis' Chris Long and Arizona's Calais Campbell come to mind immediately.
Lynch has arguably run more impressively than any other back in the conference of late. He ended the 49ers' streaks without allowing a 100-yard rusher (36 games) or a rushing touchdown (15 games). Lynch was named a second alternate. He has a chance to earn a spot given that Matt Forte is injured and might not play in the game. I'm not sure which NFC back is first alternate, but Lynch would move up the list if Minnesota's injured Adrian Peterson held that distinction.
Aldon Smith has 14 sacks as a rookie, but he didn't make the Pro Bowl. In fact, Smith did not even show up on a list of 49ers alternates featuring NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Blake Costanzo, Vernon Davis, Ted Ginn Jr., Jonathan Goodwin, Mike Iupati, Ray McDonald, Bruce Miller and Donte Whitner.
Long has 13 sacks for a team that almost never faces favorable pass-rushing situations, but with multiple high-profile sack artists in the NFC, he did not make it. The Cardinals' Campbell gets overlooked playing defensive end in a 3-4 scheme, but he's been a dominant player. At least teammate Darnell Dockett was named an alternate.
Click here for the complete 2012 Pro Bowl roster.
2012 Pro Bowl fan balloting: Final ranks
December, 21, 2011
12/21/11
6:08
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
A few changes for NFC West players stood out in final fan voting for the 2012 Pro Bowl.
The San Francisco 49ers' Justin Smith moved up one spot to No. 1 among players listed as defensive tackles. Two other 49ers, guard Mike Iupati and strong safety Donte Whitner, each fell one place. Iupati is fourth. Whitner is fifth. Teammates Ray McDonald and NaVorro Bowman, each ranked fifth at their positions last time, did not crack the top five in final fan balloting.
The Arizona Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald moved up one spot to third among wide receivers.
Players and coaches vote this week. The NFL announces results Dec. 27.
The first chart shows total votes received for players ranking among the top five at their positions in final fan balloting, by division. The second chart shows NFC West players ranked among the top five and how their rankings changed since our last update one week ago.
Among players not listed, the Cardinals' Adrian Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch stand out as deserving of consideration. The impact Arizona's Patrick Peterson has made as a punt returner also stands out. There are others deserving consideration as well.
.
The San Francisco 49ers' Justin Smith moved up one spot to No. 1 among players listed as defensive tackles. Two other 49ers, guard Mike Iupati and strong safety Donte Whitner, each fell one place. Iupati is fourth. Whitner is fifth. Teammates Ray McDonald and NaVorro Bowman, each ranked fifth at their positions last time, did not crack the top five in final fan balloting.
The Arizona Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald moved up one spot to third among wide receivers.
Players and coaches vote this week. The NFL announces results Dec. 27.
The first chart shows total votes received for players ranking among the top five at their positions in final fan balloting, by division. The second chart shows NFC West players ranked among the top five and how their rankings changed since our last update one week ago.
Among players not listed, the Cardinals' Adrian Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch stand out as deserving of consideration. The impact Arizona's Patrick Peterson has made as a punt returner also stands out. There are others deserving consideration as well.
.
Rapid Reaction: 49ers 20, Steelers 3
December, 20, 2011
12/20/11
12:26
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
SAN FRANCISCO -- Thoughts on the San Francisco 49ers' 20-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on "Monday Night Football" at Candlestick Park in Week 15:
What it means: The 49ers improved to 11-3 and stayed just ahead of 11-3 New Orleans for the second seed in the NFC playoffs, based on a tiebreaker (superior conference record: 8-2 for the 49ers, 7-3 for the Saints). The top two seeds get first-round playoff byes and home games in the divisional round. By winning, the 49ers joined the Saints in keeping pressure on 13-1 Green Bay to continue winning. That could eventually help Seattle and Arizona; both teams' playoff chances would improve if Green Bay's Week 17 opponent, Detroit, lost its final two games. The 49ers' victory gave NFC West teams a 3-1 record outside the division in Week 15.
What I liked: The 49ers became the third team since Miami in 2007 to shut out the Steelers in a first half. Cornerback Carlos Rogers and free safety Dashon Goldson picked off Ben Roethlisberger in the first half. Cornerback Tarell Brown picked one off late. Linebacker Larry Grant, subbing for Patrick Willis, leaped high to break up a pass. Outside linebacker Aldon Smith delivered a big hit on Roethlisberger late in the third quarter. The rookie later joined Ray McDonald in sacking Roethlisberger, forcing a fumble the 49ers recovered inside the Pittsburgh 20. That turnover set up the clinching touchdown run by Frank Gore. Smith collected 2.5 sacks overall, giving him 13 for the season. Quarterback Alex Smith took no sacks after absorbing 18 over the 49ers' previous three games. Later, with San Francisco leading 6-3 in the third quarter, Smith found tight end Vernon Davis for a 31-yard gain across midfield. The Steelers can be tough on opposing tight ends, and that was the case for much of this game. The 49ers stuck with it, got a little creative and found ways to get Davis open. Davis rewarded his team with the 31-yard reception over his shoulder, followed by a 21-yard reception to the Pittsburgh 1-yard line, followed by a 1-yard scoring reception and redemption in the red zone. Punter Andy Lee and the 49ers' coverage team repeatedly pinned the Steelers deep in their own territory, continuing a season-long trend.
What I didn't like: Two power outages delayed the game, an embarrassment for the 49ers and the NFL even if the problems weren't under their control. Terrible Towels waved throughout the stadium. Thousands of 49ers fans apparently sold their tickets. It's tough to begrudge a fan for collecting a fat payday every so often, but a 49ers team with a 10-3 record coming into the game was worthy of more partisan support. On the field, the Steelers found soft spots in the 49ers' coverage along the sidelines, getting the ball behind outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks, who appeared to have coverage on shorter routes. Goldson missed two tackles early in the game, leading to big plays for the Steelers. The 49ers settled for two first-half field goals, squandering drives that reached the Pittsburgh 4- and 20-yard lines. Gore's season-long issues with dropped passes continued. He entered the game with five drops on 26 targets, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Gore dropped two more passes in this game.
Red zone reversal: The 49ers had failed to score a touchdown on seven consecutive red zone possessions over a three-game period before Monday night. They settled for another red zone field goal early in this game, but two red zone touchdowns helped turn a 6-3 lead into a 20-3 runaway for the 49ers.
Akers gets the record: David Akers set a 49ers franchise record for most points in a season. He entered the game with 135 points, trailing Jerry Rice (138 in 1987) and Mike Cofer (136 in 1989).
Rushing touchdown defense: The 49ers still have not allowed a rushing touchdown all season. Their streak dating to last season has spanned 15 games, matching the 1985-86 Chicago Bears for the longest streak since 1970. The 49ers already held the NFL single-season record since 1970. That streak is at 14, three more than the ones San Francisco and Cleveland strung together in 1992.
49ers injuries of note: Left tackle Joe Staley, questionable for this game after suffering a concussion, left this game with a leg injury. The 49ers listed his return as questionable. Return specialist Ted Ginn Jr. did not return after suffering an ankle injury when tackled awkwardly on the kickoff to open the second half. The 49ers listed his return as questionable. Willis missed the game with a hamstring injury.
Turnover margin key, again: The 49ers were plus-four in turnover margin against the Steelers. They are now plus-25 for the season, best in the NFL.
What's next: The 49ers visit the Seahawks in a game with NFC seeding implications for San Francisco. The Seahawks must win for any shot at keeping their playoff hopes alive.
2012 Pro Bowl fan balloting: Updated ranks
December, 14, 2011
12/14/11
5:12
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Eighteen San Francisco 49ers rank among the top five at their positions in fan balloting for the Pro Bowl.
What is this, 1994?
It's feeling that way with the 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers taking 10-3 records into their Monday night game in Week 15.
These championship-laden franchises previously have not had double-digit victory totals at the same time since 2002. They did so previously during the 1990s and briefly during the 1980s, but rarely have both been at their very best simultaneously.
The fan balloting totals reflect each team's success this season.
Unbeaten Green Bay leads the NFL with 21 players ranking among the top five at their positions. The 49ers are second with 18, followed by New England (15), Baltimore (13) and Pittsburgh (12).
A quick run through which NFC West players rank among the top five at their positions:
Arizona Cardinals
First: none
Second: none
Third: none
Fourth: receiver Larry Fitzgerald
Fifth: none
San Francisco 49ers
First: inside linebacker Patrick Willis, punters Andy Lee
Second: center Jonathan Goodwin, cornerback Carlos Rogers, defensive tackle Justin Smith (he plays defensive end), free safety Dashon Goldson, fullback Bruce Miller, kicker David Akers, special teamer Blake Costanzo
Third: guard Mike Iupati, kick returner Ted Ginn Jr.
Fourth: running back Frank Gore, strong safeties Donte Whitner, tackle Joe Staley
Fifth: defensive tackle Ray McDonald, inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman, tackle Anthony Davis, tight end Vernon Davis
Seattle Seahawks
First: none
Second: none
Third: punter Jon Ryan, strong safety Kam Chancellor
Fourth: free safety Earl Thomas
Fifth: none
St. Louis Rams
First: none
Second: none
Third: none
Fourth: defensive end Chris Long
Fifth: none
The chart breaks down the counts for NFC teams. Fan voting continues online through the 49ers' game Monday night. Players and coaches vote Dec. 21-22. Results are announced Dec. 27.
.
What is this, 1994?
It's feeling that way with the 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers taking 10-3 records into their Monday night game in Week 15.
These championship-laden franchises previously have not had double-digit victory totals at the same time since 2002. They did so previously during the 1990s and briefly during the 1980s, but rarely have both been at their very best simultaneously.
The fan balloting totals reflect each team's success this season.
Unbeaten Green Bay leads the NFL with 21 players ranking among the top five at their positions. The 49ers are second with 18, followed by New England (15), Baltimore (13) and Pittsburgh (12).
A quick run through which NFC West players rank among the top five at their positions:
Arizona Cardinals
First: none
Second: none
Third: none
Fourth: receiver Larry Fitzgerald
Fifth: none
San Francisco 49ers
First: inside linebacker Patrick Willis, punters Andy Lee
Second: center Jonathan Goodwin, cornerback Carlos Rogers, defensive tackle Justin Smith (he plays defensive end), free safety Dashon Goldson, fullback Bruce Miller, kicker David Akers, special teamer Blake Costanzo
Third: guard Mike Iupati, kick returner Ted Ginn Jr.
Fourth: running back Frank Gore, strong safeties Donte Whitner, tackle Joe Staley
Fifth: defensive tackle Ray McDonald, inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman, tackle Anthony Davis, tight end Vernon Davis
Seattle Seahawks
First: none
Second: none
Third: punter Jon Ryan, strong safety Kam Chancellor
Fourth: free safety Earl Thomas
Fifth: none
St. Louis Rams
First: none
Second: none
Third: none
Fourth: defensive end Chris Long
Fifth: none
The chart breaks down the counts for NFC teams. Fan voting continues online through the 49ers' game Monday night. Players and coaches vote Dec. 21-22. Results are announced Dec. 27.
.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
