NFC West: Rob Gronkowski

Using an early draft choice for an unusually young player can carry risks.



The upside: a potentially longer career window.

As noted earlier Thursday, the San Francisco 49ers' Anthony Davis and the Seattle Seahawks' Earl Thomas are among three players to start all 48 games over the past three seasons before turning 24. Davis has already received a contract extension. Thomas is in line for one.

The chart breaks out all others with more than 35 starts over the past three seasons before they turned 24. Rolando McClain stands out as an exception for the wrong reasons. Most of the others have met general expectations.

That doesn't necessarily mean teams should rush out to draft especially young players. In some cases, it means exceptionally talented players were good enough to attract teams' interest in the absence of college seasoning.

Four of the players in the chart have achieved Pro Bowl and first-team Associated Press All-Pro status: Thomas, Pierre-Paul, Rob Gronkowski and Maurkice Pouncey. Thomas and Pouncey have also been second-team All-Pro choices.
The San Francisco 49ers have set out to build the most technologically advanced stadium in history. We might consider it a small upset, then, that they have secured a naming-rights sponsor known for producing blue jeans pretty much the same way since 1873.

Levi's Stadium joins CenturyLink Field, University of Phoenix Stadium and the Edward Jones Dome among sponsored playing venues in the NFC West.

The 20-year agreement for naming rights could be worth $220 million, enough to purchase 4.4 million pairs of jeans at $50 a pop. The agreement is subject to approval Thursday by the Santa Clara Stadium Authority.

Levi Strauss & Co. is based in San Francisco and got its start when its namesake, having moved from New York, began selling various products during the Gold Rush. So, there are natural ties between the 49ers and Levi Strauss.

The potential for long-term stability seems strong. The Levi's brand will presumably endure as it has for 160 years. The 49ers likely won't have an unpleasant name change forced upon them, as the case was when CenturyLink overtook Qwest, affecting the Seahawks' stadium brand. I think that's something to consider whenever a team enters into an agreement with branding and profits and mind.

There can be only one Candlestick Park. It's closing after the 2013 season. The new stadium is scheduled for completion in time for the 2014 opener.

We should note that Wrangler endorser Drew Brees and Hudson Jeans endorser Rob Gronkowski are scheduled to visit Levi's Stadium with their teams in 2016. Niners coach Jim Harbaugh will presumably wear his khakis that day, same as always. Levi's does manufacture khaki Dockers, for those wondering.

Update: The most prominent Levi's endorser in the NFC West plays for the rival Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson signed on last season.
Steve from Palisades Park, N.J., used the most recent NFC West chat to say the San Francisco 49ers should add to their receiving corps "a big guy who can go up and get jump balls" -- perhaps someone such as Ramses Barden.

"The 49ers have Vernon Davis," I replied. "He should be able to do those things."



Paul from San Francisco wasn't having it.

"Davis has never been that guy," Paul wrote to the NFC West mailbag. "Have you ever noticed that he's always jumping in the air when he catches a pass? Not the same as the high, contested end zone passes mentioned above.

"It's like he can't stay on his feet, catch a ball, and continue up the field without breaking stride. He needs his body to remain relatively stationary (in the air) while he concentrates on the ball because he can't do too many things at once while focusing on the ball.

"Watch the tape, you'll see!"

I've seen Davis catch touchdowns passes in stride. It's tough to quantify passes caught high in the air, away from the body and the like. With Davis, the big plays probably overshadow the routine ones in our minds. As the chart shows, Davis has averaged 18.9 yards per touchdown reception over the past five seasons, second only to Seattle's Zach Miller among qualifying tight ends.

Davis has 33 touchdown receptions over the past five seasons. Davis was already in the end zone when he caught 19 of them.

I did think there were times last season when Davis should have factored more prominently in the red zone.

Forty NFL tight ends ran at least 20 pass routes in the red zone last season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Of those 40 players, Davis ranked 35th in percentage of targets per route (14.8). The average was 24.2 percent for the others and more than 30 percent for Clay Harbor, Heath Miller, Rob Gronkowski, Owen Daniels, Aaron Hernandez, Joel Dreessen, Tony Moeaki, Anthony Fasano and Benjamin Watson.

Davis' average was around 20 percent over the previous four seasons. The 49ers' offense is changing. Michael Crabtree is playing a more prominent role in the receiving game. That has affected Davis. It isn't necessarily bad for the team, either.

Let's count this as an initial look into a subject that could use additional exploration.
Two of the first 10 players selected in the 2006 NFL draft are scheduled to start in the Super Bowl on Feb. 3.

Both are starters for the San Francisco 49ers.

Both were arguably selected higher than their positions warranted in terms of value.

Both have earned Pro Bowl recognition in recent seasons. Both have made high-impact plays in postseason victories over the past two seasons.

Tight end Vernon Davis and strong safety Donte Whitner are key players for the 49ers heading into the team's Super Bowl matchup against Baltimore.

I've singled out Davis in this item because the seventh-year tight end provided yet another high-impact postseason performance Sunday, his third 100-yard receiving game in four playoff appearances over the past two seasons. Davis also had a 44-yard reception against Green Bay last week in his lone playoff performance totaling less than 100 yards.

As the chart below shows, Davis accounts for three of the five highest single-game postseason yardage totals for tight ends over the past two seasons. Davis and Dallas Clark are the only NFL tight ends with more than one 100-yard receiving game in the playoffs since 2001, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Each has three.

The Ravens have allowed only one postseason touchdown pass to a tight end since 2001. They have allowed only two 110-yard receiving games to tight ends in regular-season or playoff games since 2001. Philadelphia's Brent Celek had 157 yards against the Ravens last season. San Diego's Antonio Gates had a 105-yard game against Baltimore in 2007.
The Associated Press and Pro Football Weekly/Professional Football Writers of America have announced their all-NFL first teams for the 2012 season.

I've compiled the results here and compared them against our all-division team.

As expected, Seattle's Richard Sherman earned all-league honors from both the AP and PFW/PFWA despite failing to land on the NFC's Pro Bowl squad. Pro Bowl voting took place before the NFL overturned a four-game suspension against Sherman for alleged use of performance-enhancing drugs.

The NFC West is heavily represented on all-league teams despite no representation for the St. Louis Rams or Arizona Cardinals on these first teams (I did not list the AP second-team honors). The 49ers (six) and Seahawks (four) gave the NFC West 10 of 27 representatives on the AP first team.

I used slightly different position names for some spots on the all-division team. Those are noted parenthetically next to the players' names.

Searching for ways to slow Tom Brady

December, 12, 2012
12/12/12
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A few thoughts on the San Francisco 49ers' defense matching up against the New England Patriots' offense in Week 15:

  • Pressure tactics. The 49ers rely on standard pressure 80 percent of the time, tied for fifth-highest. That means they send more than four pass-rushers on 20 percent of dropbacks. The approach sets up well against New England. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is good just about all the time, but he's particularly dangerous when teams trade coverage for pressure. Brady has 18 touchdowns, no picks and a 92.2 Total QBR score against five-plus rushers. As the chart at right shows, Brady is actually tougher to sack when teams come after him with additional rushers.
  • Trouble in the slot. Patriots receiver Wes Welker is a tough matchup for most teams. The 49ers' struggles against the St. Louis Rams' Danny Amendola comes to mind here. Amendola caught 11 passes for 102 yards against San Francisco in Week 10. He was trouble for 49ers slot corner Carlos Rogers. Welker fits the same mold. The 49ers might need to double-cover Welker. Fortunately for them, New England remains without injured tight end Rob Gronkowski. Before Monday night, Welker had caught 31 of 35 passes for 443 yards and two touchdowns from the right slot. He had more than double the targets from there as from anywhere else.
  • What has worked. The Miami Dolphins held Brady to 4 of 15 passing with two sacks and a 4.4 QBR score on first down, including 3 of 11 when rushing four or fewer defenders. Arizona was one of the few teams to succeed against New England while pressuring. Brady completed 1 of 4 passes for nine yards on third down when the Cardinals rushed five or more. However, the Patriots lost tight end Aaron Hernandez to injury in that game, affecting their plan. Overall, Brady has completed 25 of 33 passes with seven touchdowns, no interceptions, three sacks and a 98.1 QBR score when teams pressure him on third down.

Searching for weaknesses on Brady isn't very satisfying. I've been looking through his numbers from various personnel groups on various downs against various defensive personnel. Not much jumps out as a clear vulnerability.

The 49ers will of course need to pressure Brady with four-man rushes. A big game from NFL sacks leader Aldon Smith would certainly help. He has 15 sacks in his last seven games and 19.5 for the season.

San Francisco will also want to punish Welker and the other receivers after the catch. Brady is going to complete a high percentage of passes, most likely. There must be a price.

Seattle and Arizona fared well in limiting yards after the catch against New England. They also beat the Patriots. Getting Welker and teammates to the ground quickly could be a must against an offense as efficient as this one.

The 49ers rank seventh in yards after catch allowed per reception (2.7). Pittsburgh (2.4), the New York Jets (2.5) and Seattle (2.5) lead the league.

The chart below shows the Patriots' QB stats by opponent. Ryan Mallett completed 1 of 4 passes for 17 yards with one interception against the Houston Texans on Monday night.
Jim Thomas' piece on Sam Bradford's improvement in the deep passing game matches up with charting from ESPN Stats & Information.

In 2010 and 2011, Bradford completed 5 of 20 passes for 205 yards with one touchdown, three picks and a 46.9 NFL passer rating on throws traveling more than 35 yards past the line of scrimmage. That gave Bradford the third-lowest rating among 17 quarterbacks with enough attempts to qualify for inclusion.

Fast-forward to this season and the numbers on these extremely deep passes look like this for Bradford: 6 of 16 passing for 299 yards with three touchdowns, no picks and a 125.0 passer rating that trails only Matt Schaub's 135.4 mark. Bradford also ranks third in Total QBR on these throws, up from 15th over his previous two seasons.

The chart compares the Rams' stats on these throws to how Week 14 opponent Buffalo has fared against them. These are infrequently thrown passes, but when they connect, a game can change in an instant. The Bills have allowed only one such completion all season, a 41-yarder to New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Danario Alexander (three), Brandon Lloyd (two) and Mark Clayton (one) accounted for all six of Bradford's connections on these throws over the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Rookie Chris Givens already has five for 255 yards and three touchdowns. Danny Amendola has the other one, good for a 44-yard gain.

Fitzgerald's sagging numbers need a boost

November, 24, 2012
11/24/12
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Larry Fitzgerald's franchise-record streak with at least one reception lives at 127 games.

It lives following a one-catch, 4-yard game against New England in Week 2 and a one-catch, 11-yard game against Atlanta last week.

It lives, but it's not flourishing the way it has in the past.

Fitzgerald, with 52 catches for 596 yards and four touchdowns this season, is on pace for 83 receptions. That would be up from 80 last season, but that increase would not be a satisfying one.

Fitzgerald is on pace for 953.6 yards this season. That would be his lowest total since he had 946 yards in 13 games during the 2006 season. His average for yards per game has fallen to 59.6 this season, down from 88.2 last season and down from 81.8 for the 2005 through 2011 seasons.

Shaky quarterback play would seem to explain the drop, but Fitzgerald caught 90 passes for 1,137 yards in 2010, when Arizona posted a lower Total QBR score (23.9) than its current one for 2012 (27.7). Derek Anderson, John Skelton and Max Hall weren't better that season than Kevin Kolb, Skelton and Ryan Lindley have been this season.

Fitzgerald has possibly been easier to defend in the absence of a stronger running game. Arizona, playing much of the season without top backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, hasn't threatened defenses as consistently on the ground. LaRod Stephens-Howling has posted two 100-yard rushing games recently, but his presence presumably did not force coverage away from Fitzgerald.

Perhaps Fitzgerald can get going against St. Louis on Sunday. He caught eight passes for 92 yards against the Rams in Week 5. That was the fourth-highest total for receiving yardage against the Rams this season. Rob Gronkowski (146), Jordy Nelson (122) and Calvin Johnson (111) had more.
The St. Louis Rams have allowed the 10th-most yards to opposing tight ends through Week 9 this season.

No big deal, right?

Well, it is if you're @timstantonx and you're wondering whether this is the week Vernon Davis gets back on track as a receiver for the San Francisco 49ers.

Davis will be facing a Rams defense that gave up eight catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns to New England tight end Rob Gronkowski in St. Louis' most recent game.

The 49ers, like the Rams, are coming off a bye. I suspect the 49ers will want to reintroduce Davis to their stat sheet after spending the last few games explaining how much they value him as blocker. Davis has five catches for 71 yards over the 49ers' last three games. His 58-game streak with at least one reception ended during that time.

The chart from ESPN Stats & Information shows receiving stats for tight ends against the Rams this season. There's a row showing totals for this season and for the Rams' first eight games last season. Tight ends have been piling up more yards against the Rams to this point in 2012 than last season.

The final row shows Davis' stats this season.

The 49ers completed 13 of 16 passes for 150 yards when targeting Davis against the Rams last season. The Rams' other opponents completed 41 of 74 passes for 384 yards to tight ends over the full season.

Just a quick note here on a fairly significant milestone within the division.

Larry Fitzgerald stands 48 yards short of 10,000 for his career heading into the Arizona Cardinals' game against Buffalo on Sunday. He has averaged 67.4 yards per game this season. Fitzgerald has reached or exceeded 48 yards in 95 of his 129 regular-season games (73.6 percent).

The Bills have allowed 48 or more receiving yards to eight players through five games this season.

Five players have reached 100 yards against Buffalo in 2012: Wes Welker (129), Michael Crabtree (113), Vernon Davis (106), Rob Gronkowski (104) and Dwayne Bowe (102).

Fitzgerald is coming off an eight-catch, 92-yard game against St. Louis.

The chart shows the four youngest players to reach 10,000 career receiving yards before age 30. All four have played for current NFC West teams. Former Seattle Seahawks receiver Steve Largent ranks fifth. He was 31 years and 83 days old when he passed the milestone.
SAN FRANCISCO -- Good morning from Candlestick Park, where parking lot attendants have been on duty since 4 a.m. local time, bracing for a busy weekend in the Bay Area.

With so much going on, I wasn't going to sit around and wait for traffic to cut off arteries into the stadium. So, I arrived at the Stick just a few minutes early (390).

This seemed like a good time to put together an item updating our 2012 NFC West Gridiron Challenge fantasy league.

A quick glance at the highest scores for Week 4 showed one man standing above all others. That man isn't really a man. It's my 7-year-old son. Seriously. His team put up 184 points in Week 4, more than any of the 1,500-plus entries scored, thanks to 29 from Aaron Rodgers, 31 from Tom Brady, 22 from Michael Turner, 22 from Jamaal Charles, 12 from Larry Fitzgerald, 15 from Jordy Nelson, 16 from Rob Gronkowski, six from Jay Feely and 31 from the San Francisco 49ers' defense.

This shows fantasy football is all about skill and preparation. My son put in at least 30 seconds of research in setting a lineup that outscored all but 22 teams out of more than 200,000 entries in the broader Gridiron Challenge competition for Week 4. "Yeah, I had the 49ers' defense going," he knowingly said to a friend earlier in the week, when I knew his team had done well, but not this well.

Moving along, my lineup for Week 5: Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Lloyd, Julio Jones, Vernon Davis, David Akers and the New York Giants' defense (against Cleveland).

Best of luck to you.

Around the NFC West: Welcoming real refs

September, 27, 2012
9/27/12
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Labor peace on the officiating front means NFL teams can go back to despising the regular officials.

How sweet.

Some fans have asked which referees will be working the various NFC West games in Week 4. I don't know the answers yet. Teams generally know officiating assignments a couple weeks in advance. The league does not publicize the information.

Kathleen Nelson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams were excited to know the regular officials were close to returning. Quarterback Sam Bradford: "I just don’t think it’s fair to the fans, I don’t think it’s fair to us as players to go out there and deal with that week in and week out."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says Michael Brockers is close to returning for the Rams. Thomas: "Brockers, in fact, may be ready for Seattle this Sunday in the Edward Jones Dome. Four weeks after suffering a high-ankle sprain in the Rams' Aug. 30 preseason finale against Baltimore, the rookie from Louisiana State was back on the practice field at Rams Park. He was officially listed as 'limited' on the team's injury report but got a good amount of work."

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says Jets coach Rex Ryan was in a generous mood when it came to lavishing praise upon various 49ers players. Ryan called tight end Vernon Davis the NFL's best: "If you're not looking at Vernon Davis, what, are you kidding me? The guy runs a 4.3, the best tight end, the No. 1 tight end in football, in my opinion. You got that [Rob] Gronkowski kid, but this guy is a 4.3 speed guy."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee suspects Brandon Jacobs could get short-yardage work if healthy enough to play Sunday.

Also from Barrows: Ryan apologized to 49ers quarterback Alex Smith this offseason after mistaking him for Aaron Rodgers. Ryan: "I felt so bad. And the next day I saw Alex at a different function, and I apologized to him, and we laughed about that."

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle says Smith has attempted very few downfield throws this season. Branch: "Of Smith’s 92 pass attempts, four have traveled 20 yards or more downfield (tight end Vernon Davis was targeted with the other three deep balls). Of the NFL’s 32 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 30 passes, only Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has attempted fewer of at least 20 yards than Smith."

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic provides a detailed look at turf-toe injuries such as the one Beanie Wells has suffered. Says one doctor: "It sounds like a hang nail or something like that, but you can’t push off. It seems innocuous by name, but it can be debilitating. And a lot of things we do to treat it in athletes will stiffen up the toe. We’ll tape it or stiffen up the shoe, but it’s really hard to perform when you can't feel that big toe. Usually if it’s just a small sprain or something like that, you can tape it up and go. If it’s significant, you'll need a minimum of at least four to six weeks of soft tissue healing. Then you start the rehabilitation." Note: I have apparently reached my monthly limit for viewing Arizona Republic stories without a paid subscription.

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com previews Karlos Dansby's return to Arizona as a member of the Miami Dolphins. Dansby and Adrian Wilson are close friends. They speak every day. Dansby on Daryl Washington, the player Arizona drafted to replace him: "He’s a dynamic player, what more can I say about him. He's very athletic, very fast. He reminds me of myself. They did a great job of getting the guy to fill that void."

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune says Seattle players felt as though outsiders expected them to apologize for claiming a disputed 14-12 victory Monday night. Cornerback Richard Sherman: "Regardless of the outcome of the game, we’re not going to get the respect that we feel like we deserve. But it doesn’t really matter to us because we keep it in-house. We keep it about us."

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times checks in with Golden Tate after the receiver drew a vitriolic backlash following his disputed catch Monday night. Tate: "If I mentioned those words, it would be bleeps, bleeps, bleeps. Some nasty stuff. It's mean. I've been called a cheater. I don't have any dignity. I'm not a Christian. A lot of hurtful things. I just pray on it and continue to live my life."

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says James Carpenter could play for Seattle in Week 4. Coach Pete Carroll: "He's live and in action this week. Carp is back to life. He has done a great job in the process of getting back here. This is Week 4. We're thrilled that he's got a chance. He has a chance to play this week. We'll see how it goes. He'll be playing at left guard, and we'll see how all that fits. He has to make it through the week, but he's really excited about it. It has been a tremendous comeback, and he's way out ahead of schedule, and he has had no setbacks to note at all. We'll see how it makes it, and we'll look forward to him playing."

Around the NFC West: Doubling up at TE

September, 13, 2012
9/13/12
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This was looking like a year for NFC West teams to feature dynamic tight ends.

It didn't happen so much in Week 1.

Seattle released veteran Kellen Winslow on the reduction to the 53-man roster limit. Arizona found only six offensive snaps for Rob Housler in its opener.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says the Cardinals are preparing to face one of the more dynamic tight end combinations anywhere. New England's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez play just about every snap. Bill Belichick: "Those (tight ends) are involved in most every play: run, pass, pass patterns, protection. It makes it harder for the defense to defend when you can run behind them or throw to them, get them down field as well as in shorter areas. A good, versatile tight end can present a lot of problems to the defense." Noted: Seattle's Zach Miller and San Francisco's Vernon Davis played most extensively among NFC West tight ends in Week 1. The Cardinals' Todd Heap and the Rams' Lance Kendricks were next, followed by the 49ers' Delanie Walker, the Cardinals' Jeff King and the Seahawks' Anthony McCoy. New England, Houston, Detroit, Denver and San Francisco played the most snaps with at least two tight ends in Week 1, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com looks at how the Cardinals use their tight ends. Urban: "The Cardinals don’t use the tight end as much in their scheme and Housler is still trying to find his niche. But on the Cardinals’ game-winning drive late in the season-opening win against Seattle, there was Heap making a couple of key catches, including the catch that gave the Cards a first-and-goal." Noted: Housler battled a hamstring injury recently and didn't get as many practice reps, perhaps setting him back. Also, the Cardinals are strong enough at wide receiver to merit using three at a time frequently, leaving less room for a second tight end.

Dan O'Neill of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has fun with the Rams' Jeff Fisher mustache campaign. O'Neill: "In the shadow of the world 's largest Fu Manchu, otherwise known as the Arch, the mustachioed masses are assured of setting a new mark for Guiness World Records. According to the Rams' marketing department, which has filed the necessary papers with Guiness, the record for fake mustaches worn in one place at one time is 227. The huge gathering emulating Fisher on Sunday can't do anything but help his award-winning chances."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch updates Rodger Saffold's neck situation. Thomas: "The big left tackle can laugh now, because amazingly, he was back on the practice field Wednesday at Rams Park. There's no way he'll play in Sunday's home opener against Washington; his neck remained stiff as he talked with reporters after practice. But he did get a little bit of work in during practice and was listed as limited participation on the team's official injury report."

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams made the right move trading away the second overall choice in the 2012 draft at the expense of selecting Robert Griffin III.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com checks in with receiver Doug Baldwin regarding the near-catch against Arizona in the end zone Sunday. Baldwin: "It was an opportunity that I had. I had the ball in my hands. Technically, according to NFL stats, it's not a drop. But for me, it's a drop. For what I want to do in my career and where I want to be, I need to make that play. I'm upbeat about it now, because there’s nowhere to go but up from here."

Also from Farnsworth: Playing John Moffitt at right guard could help improve communication on the line.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times looks at how long-range thinking (releasing Winslow) clashed with short-term goals (repeated failures in the red zone Sunday) for the Seahawks. Noted: This was absolutely the case unless there was reason to think Winslow wouldn't have been available for the opener. Winslow does have knee troubles, but the termination of his contract did not carry a "failed physical" notation. He was presumably healthy enough to contribute. The price for keeping Winslow on the roster would have been $3.3 million in salary (guaranteed had he been on the roster for Week 1) and a conditional draft choice that would have been owed to Tampa Bay.

Brock Huard of 710ESPN Seattle looks at what the Seahawks should do differently in Week 2.

Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News previews the matchup between 49ers tackle Anthony Davis and Lions defensive end Cliff Avril. The two went after one another last season. Davis: "He doesn't like me, man. I don't know why. I don't need any new friends. It's cool. It's not about one person going against one guy."

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle looks at Tarell Brown's matchup against Lions receiver Calvin Johnson. Lions coach Jim Schwartz on Johnson's role in the winning touchdown pass to running back Kevin Smith against the Rams: "If you look at the play, there were four people on (Johnson). The play was designed for Calvin. We make no mistake about that. We were trying to hit Calvin on the back line, but when they slough four guys off on him -- they had him doubled and also had two linebackers underneath -- when that happened, that freed our running back up to be wide open in the flat. That's the dynamic that Calvin brings. It’s very rare that he’s not doubled, some way, somehow."

Also from Branch: The 49ers can tie an NFL record for consecutive NFL games without a turnover if they avoid one against Detroit. New England has the record of seven games.
video

Thanks to Vernon Davis, the San Francisco 49ers rank second among NFL teams in touchdowns by tight ends over the past three seasons.

The other NFC West teams rank no better than 27th.



The video above features a few thoughts about what's in store for the position in the division.

I've also put together charts showing team and division rankings for touchdowns by tight ends.

Not pictured: The 49ers rank third in receiving yardage by tight ends over the same three-year period. The Rams are 25th, the Seahawks 26th and the Cardinals 31st. The rankings would be similar if we used receptions as the stat (Arizona would fall to last in the NFL with 113 receptions by tight ends).

There is no law saying a team must have statistically prolific tight ends to succeed. But with NFC West teams making an effort to upgrade the position recently, a trend that continued with Kellen Winslow's signing in Seattle, we can safely assume teams from the division would expect better results than these.

Adam Gabriel's recent piece Insider analyzing Rob Gronkowski's new deal made the following observation:

"The trend of increased tight end use has been evolving over the past dozen years. In the four-year period from 2000-03, on average three tight ends per year topped 700 yards receiving, and a similar number scored six or more TDs per year.

"Those numbers more than doubled in the four-year stretch from 2004-07. The results then peak from 2008-11, thanks partly to last season, which was the Year of the Tight End in the NFL.

"A whopping 14 TEs had more than 700 yards receiving (compared to two in 2003), and 11 had six or more TDs (compared to one in 2000)."


Davis was the only NFC West tight end last season with more than 28 receptions and 352 yards.

The most recent NFC West chat is heading into overtime thanks to Jeff from Seattle.

"I enjoyed it when the chat wrap used questions that weren't answered," Jeff wrote. "Any plans to bring that back to the feature?"

Sometimes there's not time, but this time, there is. It's May 24 and we -- OK, I -- recently ran a weather report, after all. The first section begins with a question about Kellen Winslow, but the answer touches on teams beyond Seattle. It also lets me break out a chart, always a plus.

Robert from Georgia asked whether Kellen Winslow's addition in Seattle will lead the Seahawks to use more personnel groupings with two tight ends.

"The way New England uses Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is unbelievable," he wrote, "and while I am in no way trying to compare, does the addition of Winslow increase Zach Miller's production? Could Seattle have the second-best two-tight-end set in the NFL?"

That sounds optimistic. I expect the San Francisco 49ers to field the best two-tight end tandem in the division once again. Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker are very good together. Each is faster than his Seattle counterpart, although Winslow has obviously been more productive than Walker as a receiver (with quite a few more opportunities).

I've put together a chart showing how frequently NFC West teams and Winslow's former team, Tampa Bay, used two or more tight ends. John Carlson's injury suppressed the numbers for Seattle. The St. Louis Rams have a new coaching staff, so numbers from last season might not mean as much.

Seattle will use two-plus tight ends more frequently as long as Miller and Winslow are healthy. Winslow amassed 74 percent of his receiving yardage (565 of 763) as the only tight end on the field last season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That figure mirrored the percentage of snaps when Tampa Bay used fewer than two tight ends, disregarding kneeldowns and spikes.

Miller's receiving numbers were going to climb anyway after he bottomed out at 25 receptions. Winslow has consistently been a 70-catch player. I would expect that figure to fall as he plays alongside another tight end to a degree he did not last season.

There is a chance Winslow will catch more passes than Miller.

Miller will likely be the in-line tight end, meaning he'll be more involved in run blocking. Winslow will be more of an H-back. That is consistent with assistant head coach/offensive line Tom Cable's vision for the offense.

Jacob from Missouri says it's easy to become optimistic while hearing good things from organized team activities and such.

"As a Rams fan, I could really use some optimism, but when is the best time to actually believe all the good things I'm hearing?" he writes.

Mike Sando: It's OK to believe the good things you're hearing now. Just remember to keep it all in perspective. For the Rams, pay close attention to the injury situation. This team was hit hard by injuries last season. It's important for the Rams to get through the offseason without starting to head down the path that led to the training room last season.

We should pay close attention to what the Rams are saying about Jason Smith at right tackle. We should listen for clues about Brian Quick's readiness to contribute right now, not just at some point in the distant future. We should pay attention to the source of information. When Jeff Fisher, a former defensive back, gushes over Janoris Jenkins and indicates he expects immediate contributions, that means something. I'd go ahead and buy into that a little bit.

Jeff from Fowler, Calif., asks whether NaVorro Bowman is the most logical young player to receive a contract extension from the 49ers.

Mike Sando: Yeah, I would think so. Dashon Goldson is operating on the franchise tag, so he could get a new deal as well. But he's been around a little longer. Bowman is younger and quickly became an All-Pro player. The 49ers should not feel pressure to do a deal with him right now, however. Bowman has the 2012 and 2013 seasons remaining on his contract. Waiting another year isn't disrespectful to Bowman. Why not get one more cheap season from Bowman and then reward him accordingly if Bowman backs up his strong 2011 season with another big year?

kualla83 from Phoenix asked whether the Arizona Cardinals' defense should be regarded on par with those from Seattle and San Francisco, even though those defenses were more consistent from start to finish.

"Obviously they have to prove it a little more on the field," he wrote, "but if the second half of last season is any indication of what is to come, I am really excited."

Mike Sando: First off, this question was one I answered in the chat. We had very few Cardinals questions and I answered them. FearTheTweetTweet even complained during the chat, asking whether I'd ever answer another Arizona question. I was looking for them and found only three (out of 140 questions, which was a low number for a chat anyway). So, we get a rerun of an answer.

It's fair to say the Cardinals should be optimistic based on the improvement they saw late in the season. It's fair to say the Cardinals have to prove it over the course of the season, which you indicated to be the case. The 49ers are in a different class defensively right now. Justin Smith and Patrick Willis were the two best defensive players in the division last season. The Cardinals do not have players quite on that level defensively. Now, they do have some very good players. The key variable, in my mind, is what production the team gets from its young outside linebackers. Again, there is reason for optimism there, but also much for the team to prove.
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