NFC West: Robert Griffin III
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Rams in 2012:
Dream scenario (8-8): Sam Bradford takes every snap on offense for the second time in three seasons as the Rams protect their franchise quarterback with sensible play-calling. It's the sixth time a Jeff Fisher-coached team finishes 8-8, but no one is complaining after the Rams' 15-65 run over the previous five seasons. Trusting offensive line coach Paul Boudreau to salvage right tackle Jason Smith becomes one of the surprise success stories of the 2012 season, and a critical one for the Rams' efforts to re-establish Bradford.
Turns out the Rams were not fibbing when they suggested Brian Quick, the receiver they took in the second round, ranked up there with first-rounder Justin Blackmon on their board. The constant threat of Steven Jackson and Isaiah Pead out of the backfield creates favorable matchups for Quick and the Rams' underrated receivers. Bradford publicly downplays a Week 2 victory over Robert Griffin III and Washington, but it feels good to win at home against the player St. Louis could have selected second overall this year.
Watching Janoris Jenkins score on a fourth-quarter punt return in Patrick Peterson's house improbably stakes the Rams to a 6-5 record, stirring visions of the postseason. It's certainly sweet to finally win within the division again. The Rams lose to San Francisco the following week and ultimately finish the regular season with a respectable defeat at Seattle, but the season is a success by any measure.
Nightmare scenario (3-13): Road games against Detroit and Chicago in the first three weeks expose Bradford to significant punishment as Smith and the line struggle to find their bearings. Bradford doesn't want to talk about the ankle injury he aggravated at some point in the season's first month, but it's clearly a factor. Facing Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ndamukong Suh, Brian Orakpo, Ryan Kerrigan, Julius Peppers, Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, Cameron Wake and Clay Matthews in the first seven games leaves Bradford limping toward the bye week, his confidence shaken.
Jackson continues to plug away, but we've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well for the Rams. The depth at receiver is indeed improved, but Bradford doesn't have any truly dynamic weapons. Quick understandably needs seasoning, but with Blackmon and Arizona's Michael Floyd challenging rookie receiving records, the Rams look bad for trading down. It's tough finding open receivers with Smith struggling at tackle, anyway.
First-round pick Michael Brockers and free-agent addition Kendall Langford upgrade the run defense, but life as an every-down defensive end is tough for Robert Quinn. The veteran outside linebackers signed as stopgaps represent only a minor upgrade from last season. Off-field issues dog Jenkins, and the defense fails to meet expectations. Critics conveniently blame Gregg Williams' suspension, but the problems are more complex than that.
The Rams head into the offseason with another high draft choice, one they'll almost certainly have to invest in a playmaker of some sort.
As a result, we're left to wonder to what degree he wants the Rams to remain in St. Louis.
Bryan Burwell of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch thinks the Rams' proposed stadium renovations indicate Kroenke is serious about keeping the team in town. Burwell: "Look very carefully at the plan. It is not an over-the-top, ostentatious, football-only counteroffer that attempts to thrust the Dome to the very top of the National Football League's most extravagant stadiums. It's not an outrageous plan that feels like the sort of crazy counteroffer whose sole intent is to blow up the entire process, thus allowing Kroenke to scoot off to Los Angeles as quickly as possible. What the Rams have put in front of us is a design whose intent is to make the Edward Jones Dome something that works for all of St. Louis, not just the football team." Noted: I also thought the Rams' proposal seemed reasonable under the circumstances. It's all part of a process that will continue, most likely, with arbitration beginning June 15. That arbitration would be binding for the Rams if the stadium authority accepted the arbiter's proposal. The Rams' lease would then extend through 2025. Otherwise, the Rams would go year-to-year on their lease beginning in March 2015.
Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports says Pete Carroll, like Tom Landry decades ago, seems to think competition at quarterback can be a healthy thing. Roger Staubach: "Coach Landry thought the quarterback just went in and executed the play the way everybody else does what they're supposed to do. He didn't understand that quarterback was different. It took him awhile to get that. … It got to the point where I really didn't care if it was me or not and I think Craig (Morton) felt the same. Yeah, you want to play, but both of us just wanted a decision." Noted: The Seahawks are not yet to that point, in my view. Matt Flynn owns two regular-season starts. Russell Wilson has never played in even an exhibition game. Tarvaris Jackson has the look of a journeyman at the position. Committing to one of them wholeheartedly at this point would be premature.
Brock Huard of 710ESPN Seattle came away impressed after watching Wilson's first practice with the team. Huard: "My first minicamp practice was spent just trying to call the play correctly. Wilson's first practice consisted of team, seven-on-seven, routes versus air and individual drills where it was difficult to find a misguided pass. Sure, he had a few passes tipped at the line and in the secondary, but his completion percentage was north of 80, and this is with guys he didn't even know by name. It would be fun to compare Wilson's initial camp with his draft-day peers: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler & Co. While Tannehill, like Wilson, has a background in his current offensive system, I can't imagine any of the rookie passers making more of an impression than Russell.
Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times offers thoughts on the Seahawks' recently concluded rookie camp. On Bruce Irvin: "The first day of practice was a little bit of a challenge in his conditioning, but even then, you saw bursts of that speed off the edge as he jetted around Alex Barron. Yes, Barron has been out of the league for a year, but we're also talking about a former first-round pick of a tackle. Irvin might not start right away, but he's going to have a role as a pass rusher right off the bat, and he showed this weekend he has the speed to make the most of it." Noted: That's good news for the Seahawks. I watched the first day of practice and thought Barron's length and experience created challenges Irvin would not have faced had he gone against rookies instead.
Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com runs a photo showing Carroll as a college player, with the third-year Seahawks coach recalling how he found out no NFL team had drafted him back in 1973.
Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee offers thoughts on LaMichael James' upbringing in a tough neighborhood. Barrows: "I could just have easily written about the Texarkana neighborhood in which he grew up. James, in fact, credits both his grandmother and his home town with forging him into the man and the player he is today. That neighborhood is on the Texas side of town and is known as Beverly. James described it as a virtual war zone. ... I talked to one of his coaches and asked him if he thought James was embellishing a bit. No, he said, Beverly was that bad. His sister, Tasha, who is 16 years his senior and who is extremely protective of her little brother, wanted him to get as far away from Texarkana as he could."
Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle puts into perspective A.J. Jenkins' conditioning. Branch: "To those up in arms, I invite you to travel back to early June when Smith, the No. 7 overall pick, arrived at San Jose State during the lockout for his first workout with veteran teammates such as Justin Smith, Isaac Sopoaga, Ray McDonald and Parys Haralson. How'd that go for Aldon? Well, Sopoaga was still laughing about the rookie’s performance a week after he debuted."
Darren Urban of azcardinals.com checks in from the Cardinals' annual golf tournament. Urban: "There are serious golfers, like coach Ken Whisenhunt and kicker Jay Feely, some middle-of-the-road guys who all seemed to hit good shots when the cameras were around (at least, that’s what they were telling us) and other guys who you should be careful to be around when they are taking a shot (Um, Beanie, about that swing …)."They valued his experience, for sure.
Bernie Miklasz asked specifically about Fisher's reputation as a teacher and developer of talent during our latest conversation on 101ESPN St. Louis.
The answer I provided could use some strengthening. After my mostly fruitless run through various online archives, Paul Kuharsky came through with a strong take based on first-hand observations. Paul covered the NFL and Fisher's Tennessee Titans for the Tennessean newspaper before becoming our AFC South blogger.
Paul's quick take on Fisher as a teacher:
"He is a good teacher and can be hands-on, particularly with punt returners and defensive backs. He didn't wander into individual periods or even special-teams periods very much. He worked with returners once in a while post-practice, but less frequently in his later years. I think he's a good teacher. He would talk about how 'we teach this when we talk about a penalty call' or 'we teach that the guy has to get his head across before he makes contact.'
"He had very specific things from the top down as far as their philosophy for doing this or that. He let his position coaches do most of that hands-on teaching stuff. He'll be far more hands-on with Janoris Jenkins than with anyone else. He'll talk about treating him the same as everyone else, and he'll baby him. The two most predictable picks in the draft after Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were Jenkins and the Montana kid, Trumaine Johnson, who went to school with Fisher's son."
Fisher played defensive back and returned punts during his own career. That would explain his particular interest in those roles. He has been a defensive coordinator as well, and with Gregg Williams serving a suspension, it's possible Fisher could become more directly involved on that side of the ball. It might also be plausible, in my view, for Fisher to take more of a hands-on approach in his first year with the Rams. A coach might feel more comfortable stepping back after his program has been established.
"Floyd's presence may force defenses into more zone coverages, because it will be hard to double Larry Fitzgerald and match up man-to-man against Floyd," Clayton theorized. "Irvin is probably the draft's best pass-rusher and should put up double-digit sack numbers early in his career."
Let's consider that a launching point for a discussion EDTGO jump-started from his luxury box in the comments section of an earlier item on Arizona's draft thinking.
"Floyd will be starting and will have the best position of the rookies to get stats," he wrote.
Rookie receivers making at least 10 starts from 2009 through last season averaged 46 receptions for 721 yards and five touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference. Cincinnati's A.J. Green and Tampa Bay's Mike Williams had the most receptions of the group (65 apiece). Green, Williams and Julio Jones each topped 900 yards. Those three joined Torrey Smith as the only ones with more than six touchdown receptions.
We shouldn't forget about St. Louis Rams second-round receiver Brian Quick. He has a good chance at starting. The Rams thought Quick reminded them of Terrell Owens from a physical standpoint. Owens had 35 catches for 520 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, making 10 starts.
The status for San Francisco 49ers first-round receiver A.J. Jenkins could be tougher to define initially. He could wind up starting if the Randy Moss experiment does not work out. He could also ease into the role, getting fewer opportunities as the 49ers run their offense through other players primarily.
Double-digit sacks from Irvin might be enough to eclipse for impact the projected receiving numbers from Floyd, Quick or Jenkins.
Five rookies since 2009 have collected at least 10 sacks. San Francisco's Aldon Smith, with 14 sacks last season, was the only one to do so as a backup. Von Miller, Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews and Ndamukong Suh -- all first-round choices, as were Smith and Irvin -- reached double digits in sacks while starting at least 13 games.
Carlos Dunlap had 9.5 sacks in 12 games, none of them starts, for Cincinnati in 2010.
Irvin should benefit from the Seahawks' very specific plans for him. The team got nine sacks in zero starts from Raheem Brock in 2010. Irvin will play a similar role and a similar percentage of the snaps, giving him a very good chance to eclipse Brock's total -- if he's talented enough to produce those numbers. Brock played about 50 percent of the snaps for Seattle in each of the last two seasons.
Who else deserves our consideration?
"Janoris Jenkins has a shot ... assuming he can keep his head on straight," ramm428a wrote.
"Yep," randdles wrote, "Jenkins will get to face five of the top QBs this year, he could make a big impact."
Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are among the high-profile quarterbacks Jenkins, a second-round cornerback with first-round talent, will face in his initial season with the Rams. Jenkins will face those quarterbacks by Week 8, giving him a chance to shape perceptions early.
Devin McCourty and Joe Haden are the only drafted cornerbacks to exceed five interceptions as rookies over the past three seasons.
"Michael Brockers could have a huge impact," JohnnyP3180 wrote of the Rams' first-round choice. "Not flashy, but he could make the biggest difference for his team."
That might be true, but as a run stuffer, Brockers probably won't accumulate the stats players often need to draw acclaim. We'll be sure to monitor Brockers' contributions closely regardless.
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The receiver rankings were particularly interesting this time.
The one San Francisco selected in the first round, A.J. Jenkins, had higher ratings from teams than analysts suggested in their mock drafts. The Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams also differed over how to rate Notre Dame's Michael Floyd, the player Arizona drafted with the 13th overall selection. Floyd was the second of 33 receivers drafted.
Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says the team had Floyd ranked seventh on its board of 120 players fitting team needs, regardless of position. Floyd was the team's second-rated receiver, presumably behind Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon. Urban: "Most analysts had six 'elite' players at the top of the draft, and assuming the Cards had the same guys -- Andrew Luck, Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil and Morris Claiborne -- in the top six, then Floyd was the guy right after and the natural pick at No. 13 overall."
Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams had their second-round choice, Brandon Quick, rated as the second-best receiver in the draft, behind Blackmon. Thomas: "When a Rams contingent hopped a private jet a week ago to work out five wide receivers, they were so enamored of Quick, they rated him as 1B of the five, right behind Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon at 1A. Next came Illinois' A.J. Jenkins, followed by Michael Floyd of Notre Dame and Kendall Wright of Baylor. Yes, the Rams had Quick and Jenkins rated ahead of Floyd. So in the case of their first two picks, the Rams must trust their talent evaluators and have faith that their coaches can get [first-round pick Michael] Brockers and Quick up to speed as quickly as possible."
Jerry Brewer of the Seattle Times says the Seahawks' unorthodox approach to evaluating players has worked well enough to secure the benefit of the doubt. Brewer: "When you examine them closely, you realize they've made the right move more times than not. And so far, even their mistakes haven't been of the franchise-killing variety. Despite all the confusion and debate they inspire, this has been a trustworthy front office. ... Because they're so thorough and believe so fully in themselves, it's wise to couch skepticism or at least delay unleashing it until you see the plan in action. They're eccentric, not stupid. Recognize the difference."
Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News checks in with new 49ers receiver Randy Moss, who arrived for the team's offseason program. Moss: "It was eye opening. Today was the first day, and we were moving so fast. Today felt like we'd been out here for a week or two."
Also from Inman: comments from 49ers general manager Trent Baalke regarding Moss and other 49ers subjects. Baalke: "We actually talked with Randy’s agent a year earlier and wanted to know if there’s any interest. When we reached out to him, the response was, 'Not interested. Done. Hanging the cleats up.' So we just let it go. Obviously Randy didn’t come back (in 2011) and sat out the year."
Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says the 49ers had interest in Irvin, the player Seattle drafted 15th overall. Barrows: "Before the draft, I wrote that West Virginia's Bruce Irvin was a possibility to the 49ers in the first round. (You collectively scoffed). It turns out that notion only was ludicrous because the Seahawks chose Irvin 15 picks earlier. It also turns out that the 49ers flew an assistant cross country to work out Irvin a mere two days before the draft, according to CBS Sports.com."
What the Rams got for second overall pick
When the 2012 NFL draft had ended, the St. Louis Rams had parlayed the second overall choice into six choices: the 14th, 39th, 50th and 150th picks this year, plus first-round selections in 2013 and 2014.
That was the net result of trades made before and during the draft.
These were good trades for the Rams, in my view. More on that in a bit. First, some details as a companion to the earlier item on the San Francisco 49ers' wheeling and dealing.
The Rams began by sending the second overall choice to Washington for the sixth and 39th picks, plus first-rounders in 2013 and 2014. They traded the sixth pick to Dallas for the 14th and 45th picks. St. Louis traded the 45th pick to Chicago for the 50th and 150th selections.
The Rams could wind up selecting six players, including three in the first round, for the price of the second overall pick, which Washington used for Robert Griffin III, a player St. Louis would not have drafted anyway.
That seems like a worthwhile exchange for the Rams, who already had a quarterback and needed help at lots of positions. I'd set aside what the Redskins think of the deal. Their motives were irrelevant to the Rams. Price won't matter to them if Griffin III becomes a franchise quarterback.
While the Redskins drafted Griffin second overall, the Rams used the Redskins' second-round choice for cornerback Janoris Jenkins (39th overall). The picks acquired from the Cowboys and Bears allowed St. Louis to draft defensive tackle Michael Brockers (14th overall), running back Isaiah Pead (50th) and guard Rokevious Watkins (150th).
The Rams still have the two future first-rounders, of course.
Using the draft-value chart, the Rams sent to the Redskins a pick worth 2,600 points. They ultimately received picks totaling 2,041.4 points this year, plus whatever the 2013 and 2014 first-rounders are worth. The draft-value chart says those picks were worth the difference between 2,600 and 2,041.4, which is 558.6 points, or roughly what the 34th overall choice was worth this year.
Would the Rams have agreed to trade the 34th pick for two future first-rounders? Of course they would have made that trade.
Given that St. Louis has its quarterback, a new head coach, multiple needs and a long-range outlook, the team would naturally value those two first-rounders in the future. The Rams wound up drafting six of the first 96 players selected this year, including three in the second round, so short-term needs were met as well.
The chart shows what the Rams traded and what they received in return. I've underlined the picks St. Louis owned originally and retained ultimately. Those picks account for the net exchange.
Todd McShay's most recent mock draft has the St. Louis Rams selecting USC tackle Matt Kalil with the sixth overall choice, one spot before Jacksonville selects receiver Justin Blackmon.
The change reflects recent rumblings suggesting Minnesota might not select Kalil with the third overall choice. It also reflects a lack of consensus after the first two overall choices.
I'll pass along a link to McShay's mock once it's available. In the meantime, the video atop this entry outlines his top 10 choices.
This version would remove Michael Floyd from consideration for Arizona at No. 13, perhaps allowing them to select offensive tackle Riley Reiff instead, should they value him enough to justify addressing a need at the position. Linebacker Luke Kuechly would be off the board before Seattle selected at No. 12, perhaps increasing the likelihood of the Seahawks using that choice to address their pass rush.
St. Louis, meanwhile, would emerge with Kalil and 2009 first-round choice Jason Smith as its projected starting tackles, with incumbent left tackle Rodger Saffold presumably moving to guard. The Rams would then consider receiver options in the second round.
That’s when James Walker, our AFC East representative, put out the word: “I’m willing to make a trade back with Buffalo at No. 10.”
Before anyone could respond, AFC South representative Paul Kuharsky announced he’d swung a deal with Dan Graziano of the NFC East. The Jaguars had traded the seventh overall choice and a sixth-rounder to Philadelphia for the 15th, 88th and 153rd selections.
The Eagles took defensive tackle Fletcher Cox at No. 7.
“By the way,” I wrote in an email to the group, “Seattle would love to trade back from 12.”
Then came the word from Walker, sent only to me, the NFC West rep: “Don’t make your pick at No. 12 yet. I have an offer from New England coming. Working out the point chart. First, I have to figure out Buffalo’s pick at No. 10.”
A few seconds passed before the AFC West’s Bill Williamson, unaware Walker had already made contact regarding the 12th pick, reached out to me in another email.
“If Melvin Ingram is on the board at 12,” Williamson wrote, “I might have San Diego come up from 18.”
This was intriguing. Seattle’s actual leadership had swung a deal with San Diego for quarterback Charlie Whitehurst a couple of years ago, so trade talks for the 12th pick seemed realistic. But the Seahawks also have a working relationship with the Patriots, having traded Deion Branch to them not all that long ago.
“Sounds good,” I replied to Bill. “James might also make an offer here.”
The potential deal with Williamson and San Diego was fleeting. Walker executed a trade with himself, allowing the New York Jets to move into Buffalo’s spot at No. 10. The Jets took Ingram, the player Williamson had wanted for San Diego.
The fun was only beginning.
Our eight divisional bloggers made four trades involving the seventh, 10th, 12th, 15th, 16th, 27th, 31st and 32nd overall choices, plus later considerations.
Five of our first-round selections in this mock failed to appear in our previous one. Jerel Worthy, Kevin Zeitler, Chandler Jones, Shea McClellin and Coby Fleener pushed out Rueben Randle, Andre Branch, Peter Konz, Kendall Wright and Mike Adams.
Courtney Upshaw, Dontari Poe and Stephen Hill made double-digit drops from then to now. Michael Brockers, Cordy Glenn, Stephon Gilmore and Cox climbed at least eight spots since last time.
We drafted seven defensive ends/outside linebackers, six offensive linemen, five defensive backs, four defensive tackles, three receivers, three quarterbacks, two inside linebackers, one tight end and one running back.
Mostly, we had some fun with the process. Thanks for coming along.
***
ESPN.com's NFL bloggers went through one final mock draft leading up to Thursday's start of the NFL draft. Here is how #ESPNbloggermock played out.
Analysis: We're going to hit at least one of the AFC South's four picks here, so we thank the Colts for that. Luck draws raves from all corners and gives Indianapolis another quarterback who could set high standards for more than a dozen years, like the guy he's replacing did. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: A no-brainer for Washington, which traded three first-round picks and a second-rounder to move into this spot to take the young man they believe will be their next franchise quarterback. Skins fans have already been wearing Griffin's name and face on T-shirts for weeks. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: I burned up the email lines trying to drum up interest for this pick, much as I imagine Vikings general manager Rick Spielman will do in the coming days and heading into Thursday night. But my colleagues were too smart for that, and I was more than happy to scoop up Kalil and presumably put quarterback Christian Ponder's mind at ease. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Not buying into the Browns' interest in wide receiver Justin Blackmon or quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Richardson is clearly the best offensive player in the draft outside of Luck and RG3. The Browns' struggling offense needs an identity, and Richardson can instantly give it a tough one. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: Once Richardson went off the board, this became an easy call. The Bucs need to add a top-notch cornerback because Ronde Barber is nearing the end of his career and Aqib Talib could face prison time or a suspension. Even if Talib is able to play this season, he's headed into the last year of his contract. The Bucs addressed the position they needed to most. They can get a running back early in the second or third round. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: Blackmon has long been a popular projection for the Rams. I'm not convinced he'll be the choice or even the first receiver drafted, but there was also a fear of overthinking the situation. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Eagles fell in love with Cox and were convinced he wouldn't get past Carolina at No. 9. So after the Rams picked Blackmon, Philadelphia offered Jacksonville the No. 15 pick and the No. 88 pick (third round) for the Jaguars' overall No. 7. Jacksonville countered by asking for a fifth-round pick (No. 153) and offering a sixth (No. 176), and the Eagles said yes. They get the guy they wanted and still have their two second-rounders. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: There was speculation that Tannehill wouldn't make it to No. 8. The Dolphins do the right thing by not trading the farm to move up to No. 3. Miami gets its quarterback of the future to reunite with Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman. (James Walker)
Analysis: Defensive tackle is a consideration, but Cox is the only sure-fire player at that spot. With him gone, the Panthers go with another low-risk player. Kuechly was exceptionally productive in college and is NFL-ready. He can contribute right away and that's something the Panthers want from this pick. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: Buffalo didn't like its spot at No. 10, and the Jets are hot on Ingram. So the two division rivals worked out a trade. The Jets get the dominant pass-rusher Rex Ryan covets, while the Bills get additional picks in the third, fifth and sixth rounds (Nos. 77, 154, 187). (James Walker)
Analysis: The Chiefs take a sure thing and an instant starter who strengthens a good offense. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The Patriots pull off a blockbuster trade with Seattle by giving up their two first-round picks (No. 27 and No. 31) for No. 12 overall and a fourth-rounder (No. 106). The Patriots, who were 31st against the pass, get the best safety in the draft. (James Walker)
Analysis: Floyd is arguably the most promising wide receiver in the draft. He would fit well in the Cardinals' offense while providing better value than the offensive tackles available at this point. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: They wanted Barron, and after the Pats made the bold move to trade up and take him at 12, the Cowboys looked into trading down. But they found no takers, so they took the highest defensive player on their board -- a versatile defensive lineman who deepens them at a key position and allows them to be flexible both with roster decisions and on-field alignments. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: I didn't get a great haul in the trade. But the Jaguars could consider Gilmore at No. 7 and get him at 15 while picking up a third-rounder and swapping a sixth-rounder for a fifth-rounder. Corner is not the biggest need after the acquisition of Aaron Ross, but no defensive end or receiver screams to be taken at No. 7 or 15. Trade details: Eagles sent 15, 88, 153 to Jaguars for 7, 176. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Buffalo is happy it moved down six spots and still landed its target in Reiff. Left tackle was a rotating door in Buffalo last season, and Reiff has the ability to be a Day 1 starter to protect Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's blind side. Trade details: Jets sent 16, 77, 154 and 187 to Bills for 10. (James Walker)
Analysis: Things didn't go as planned in the first half of the draft for the Bengals, who watched guard David DeCastro, safety Mark Barron and cornerback Stephon Gilmore all get taken in the top 15. Defensive end isn't a major need for the Bengals, but it would be hard to resist taking a talent like Coples. Even though Coples has boom-or-bust potential, this is a pick based on best player available. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Chargers go for the best value on the board and take an impact defensive player. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The Bears were forced to play their starting defensive ends, Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije, on more than 80 percent of their plays last season. Depth, and a possible replacement for Idonije, was sorely needed. Mercilus seemed a better fit than Syracuse's Chandler Jones or Alabama's Courtney Upshaw. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Perry provides a combination of size and speed that should round out the Titans' top four defensive ends and solidifies the position for the foreseeable future. If he can get to the quarterback with some regularity as a rookie, Tennessee can make a nice jump on defense. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: The decision here came down to Glenn, wide receiver Kendall Wright or cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. You could argue wide receiver is the bigger need, but Glenn is the better prospect. After failing to get DeCastro at No. 17, the Bengals turn to Glenn to make an immediate impact at right or left guard. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: This was a tough call because the Browns need speed at wide receiver, and Wright and Hill are sitting there. But that's the reason the pick is Martin. There are so many more wide receiver prospects available than offensive tackles, so the Browns have a better chance of seeing a wide receiver fall to them early in the second round. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Lions' secondary was their weakest link in 2011, and starter Eric Wright signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during free agency. General manager Martin Mayhew isn't a need-based drafter, but the position is a high priority. I had hoped for Kirkpatrick's former teammate Mark Barron here, but he was long gone, and I didn't have the guts to take North Alabama cornerback Janoris Jenkins. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Could the Steelers have envisioned a better draft unfolding than this? Pittsburgh would've been happy with Dont'a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw or even Amini Silatolu. Instead, Poe falls into their laps. He becomes the heir apparent to Casey Hampton. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Broncos would have pounced on Poe, but Worthy is a highly valued player who fills a huge hole. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The offensive line was a team strength a year ago, but gone are the right guard (Mike Brisiel) and the right tackle (Eric Winston). Houston loves Wisconsin players, and Zeitler will be ready to be plugged right in. We also thought hard about Bobby Massie and Rueben Randle. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Trading back was the plan all along. Jones has the length Seattle covets in its players on defense (think Brandon Browner, Richard Sherman, K.J. Wright, Kam Chancellor, etc.). Jones also fills an obvious need for a pass-rushing defensive end. Trade details: Patriots sent 27 and 31 to Seattle for 12 and 106. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: There were a number of possibilities here, but defensive coordinator Dom Capers loves to develop wrinkles off his 3-4 base, and McClellin is said to be versatile. It's possible the Packers could trade down and still get him at the top of the second round. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: The Ravens are always looking for pass-rushers, and Upshaw gives them another tone-setter on defense. He replaces Jarret Johnson in Baltimore's base defense and plays opposite Terrell Suggs as an edge rusher in passing situations. Upshaw has drawn comparisons to LaMarr Woodley, so you know he's an AFC North type of player. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The 49ers face a long list of top quarterbacks this season. They lack glaring needs and should be able to find guard help later in the draft. Coby Fleener was a consideration, but the 49ers like their existing tight ends and could extend Delanie Walker's contract. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Seahawks need another tight end after losing John Carlson to the Vikings in free agency. Adding Jones at No. 27 gave them flexibility in this spot. Seattle entered draft week with 19 players from the Pac-12. Fleener would give them 20. Trade details: Patriots sent 27 and 31 to Seattle for 12 and 106. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Bills aren't done with a busy day of trading. Buffalo gets back in the first round by swapping a second-rounder and two fourth-rounders with the Giants. Hill is a big-play receiver to pair with Bills starter Steve Johnson. Hill averaged an astounding 29.3 yards per catch last season. Trade details: Giants trade 32 to Buffalo for 41, 105 and 124. (James Walker)
Questioning how teams value WRs in draft
The top three teams in passing yardage last season -- New Orleans, New England and Green Bay -- have combined to invest one first-round draft choice in receivers since 2006.
2012 NFL Draft
Rd. 1: April 26, 8 p.m. ET
Rd. 2-3: April 27, 7 p.m. ET
Rd. 4-7: April 28, Noon ET
Radio City Music Hall
New York City
Draft order | Draft home
• Mel Kiper's latest mock 
• Todd McShay's latest mock
• Mel Kiper's Big Board
• Todd McShay's Top 32
• Blog Network mock draft 2.0
• Draft Machine
But the broader context is this: Teams do not regularly draft wide receivers in the first round, regardless of where those teams rank in passing yardage.
Teams have chosen only 11 receivers in first rounds since 2006, the year Farr used as a start point. Teams have drafted 29 defensive linemen, 26 offensive linemen, 24 defensive backs and 14 quarterbacks in first rounds over the same period. Teams have drafted the same number of receivers as linebackers and running backs in these first rounds (allowing for some overlap between defensive ends and outside linebackers).
The chart shows round-by-round receiver selections since 2007 for 11 strong passing teams. I've chosen 2007 as the starting point because it encompasses the past five drafts.
The list includes the teams whose quarterbacks finished among the top 10 in Total QBR last season, plus the New York Giants, who won the Super Bowl thanks largely to Eli Manning's strong play. These teams have drafted fewer receivers than other teams on average, but slightly more of them in the first and third rounds.
None of these teams has drafted a receiver in the fourth round since 2007; teams tend to grab them in the third round, then wait til the last three rounds to fill out their rosters.
Houston, with Andre Johnson to anchor its receiving corps, has drafted only one receiver in any round over the five-year period in question (Trindon Holliday, a sixth-round choice in 2010, was a returner).
The NFL is a passing league. Receivers are important, but drafting one early isn't always a requirement for success. The Saints have drafted only two receivers in any round since 2007, yet they had the most prolific offense in the league, with tight end Jimmy Graham a big part of their success.
How teams use weapons in combination becomes critical, too. A No. 1 receiver becomes more effective with a strong option from the slot taking off pressure. Teams with gifted tight ends have another advantage.
Do the Rams absolutely, positively have to draft a wide receiver sixth overall this year? Of course not. But if they can find the next Calvin Johnson or even the next Hakeem Nicks -- two of the seven first-round wideouts drafted by teams in the chart -- what would be so bad about that?
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A look at four regular-season openers fans could embrace:
- San Francisco at Green Bay. The Packers were supposed to stand between the 49ers and the Super Bowl last season. The New York Giants had other plans, eliminating Green Bay in the divisional round. With the Giants already set to open their regular season against the Dallas Cowboys, a Packers-49ers game at Candlestick Park makes perfect sense. The 49ers' dominant defense would face Aaron Rodgers, the MVP quarterback San Francisco passed over for Alex Smith in the 2005 draft. And a 49ers victory at Lambeau would send a strong message. By the way, Fox's Chris Myers hinted at this matchup for Week 1.
- Washington at St. Louis. The Rams and Redskins swung a blockbuster trade putting Washington in position to draft Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. Why not pit the teams against one another, showcasing Griffin and 2010 No. 1 overall choice Sam Bradford? Former Rams coach Jim Haslett is the Redskins' defensive coordinator, another connection between the teams. From the Rams' standpoint, they would be opening the season at home against a rookie quarterback, giving them a good shot at claiming their first victory under coach Jeff Fisher.
- Seattle at Arizona. Consider this one a continuation of the Cardinals' overtime victory against the Seahawks in the final game last season. That was a bruising game featuring gritty play from Larry Fitzgerald and punishing running from Marshawn Lynch. We've debated this offseason whether the Seahawks or Cardinals should be considered in best position to challenge the 49ers for NFC West supremacy. Why not get some answers right away, in Week 1?
Any other openers you'd like to see more than these?
- A manageable start would help. In 2009, the Rams opened the Steve Spagnuolo era with three of their first four games on the road. Their first five home games welcomed Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Kurt Warner to the Edward Jones Dome. Tough game are unavoidable. Opponents were set long ago. But there's no sense in dooming a rebuilding team with an unusually tough early schedule.
- Trips to Buffalo and Chicago early in the season could help the Rams avoid playing in frigid conditions for their two outdoor games in cold-weather cities (weather in Seattle can be rough, too, but generally not sub-freezing). Playing the Bears early could carry additional appeal if the NFL suspends receiver Brandon Marshall.
- Trips to Miami and Tampa Bay early in the season can be tough from a weather standpoint, but the Rams should welcome such an arrangement. They train in the sweltering heat of St. Louis, after all, so the conditions would not shock their system. Also, the Dolphins and Buccaneers are breaking in new head coaches, as are the Rams. Perhaps there would be value in facing those teams early.
- The Rams played back-to-back division games on the West Coast last season, first at San Francisco and then at Seattle. The second game was on a Monday night, giving the Rams additional time. The NFL will certainly work with the Rams this season as the team plays one of its home games in London. This will presumably include playing at home the week prior, then having a bye to decompress following the trip overseas. The Rams travel 4,190 miles to London, and 7,998 miles to their eight other destinations (one way).
- The Rams have faced the Washington Redskins by Week 6 in each of the past four seasons. Another early game against them might beat the alternative this season given that Washington will likely be breaking in a rookie quarterback, Robert Griffin III.
On trade prospects near top of 2012 draft
They could benefit again if the Miami Dolphins traded into the third overall spot from No. 8 to ensure landing Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
2012 NFL Draft
Rd. 1: April 26, 8 p.m. ET
Rd. 2-3: April 27, 7 p.m. ET
Rd. 4-7: April 28, Noon ET
Radio City Music Hall
New York City
Draft order | Draft home
• Mel Kiper's latest mock
• Todd McShay's latest mock
• Mel Kiper's Big Board
• Todd McShay's Top 32
• Blog Network mock draft 2.0
• Draft Machine
What are the chances?
The new wage scale for top draft choices has led some to suggest teams will be more interested in trading into the top few spots from lower in the first round. ESPN's Bill Polian advocated this position in his latest column
. He sees the QB-needy Dolphins having little choice but to make a strong play for Tannehill, which could mean leaping past Cleveland, owner of the fourth overall choice, for that opportunity.
But the price for moving up would seem to rise for two reasons. One, Tannehill plays quarterback, the most valuable position, giving Minnesota, owner of the third pick at present, additional leverage. Two, the third overall choice is more affordable for the Vikings than it would have been in the past, giving them less incentive to trade out of the choice as a matter of general principle.
The Vikings would presumably select USC's Matt Kalil third if they remained in that spot. Cleveland, picking fourth, already has a franchise left tackle in Joe Thomas. But if Minnesota traded back to No. 8, the Vikings could forget about Kalil, perhaps settling instead on another tackle, Riley Reiff.
Tampa Bay holds the fifth pick and would not pass on Alabama running back Trent Richardson, in Polian's estimation.
In that scenario, the Rams could choose from Kalil, Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon and LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne, among others. They would have tougher choices, but also superior options.
Not seeing many hands out there. Not seeing any hands, actually.
2012 NFL Draft
Rd. 1: April 26, 8 p.m. ET
Rd. 2-3: April 27, 7 p.m. ET
Rd. 4-7: April 28, Noon ET
Radio City Music Hall
New York City
Draft order | Draft home
• Mel Kiper's latest mock
• Todd McShay's latest mock
• Mel Kiper's Big Board
• Todd McShay's Top 32
• Blog Network mock draft 2.0
• Draft Machine
Raise your hand if you had the Seattle Seahawks selecting James Carpenter at No. 25.
Hmmm. Not seeing many hands out there. Not seeing any, actually.
Do not feel bad. Even if you knew which 32 players would become first-round picks in a given NFL draft, there would be more than 263 decillion possible combinations.
The number looks like this: 263,130,836,933,693,530,167,218,012,160,000,000.
With that in mind, our 2012 NFL Blog Network mock draft comes guaranteed not for accuracy but for its ability to promote conversation, a process that has already begun here on the NFC West blog.
"Kendall Wright pick makes no sense" CHI-TOWN-BULLS protested upon seeing the Baylor receiver projected for the49ers at No. 30.
More on that in a minute.
We penciled in Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III at the top with a reasonable degree of confidence. Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon fell third through sixth. Most choices seemed logical, but somewhere among the top five or 10 selections, an NFL team breaks from projected form, tapping into those 263 decillion combinations.
Two years ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars obliterated mock drafts by selecting Tyson Alualu with the 10th pick. Last year, four quarterbacks went among the top 12 choices, with Christian Ponder a surprise choice for Minnesota at No. 12.
My thinking for the NFC West was rather straightforward:
- Rams at No. 6: Blackmon was an easy choice. The team has an obvious need for a wide receiver. Blackmon is widely regarded as the highest-rated one in this draft class, to the point that some question whether he will be available to the Rams. Going in another direction for this mock would have represented over-thinking a simple situation. Sure, St. Louis could trade back or select a player at another position. Richardson or Claiborne would carry appeal if available. But when Blackmon was available, I turned in the imaginary card right away.
- Seahawks at No. 12. I wondered going into the mock whether Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly might be available for Seattle in this slot. Would the team take an inside linebacker that early? San Francisco fared well taking Patrick Willis with the 11th pick in 2007. Scot McCloughan, now a top Seahawks personnel executive, was the driving force behind the Willis decision. Would the Seahawks see Kuechly in a similar light? They do need help at linebacker, after all. The thought became a fleeting one when Kuechly went to Carolina at No. 9. That made it easier to focus on the highest-rated pass-rushers. Quinton Coples was the choice because he seemed to be the most talented one available, based on scouting reports.
- Cardinals at No. 13. This choice was tougher than the previous two. I went with Alabama's Courtney Upshaw, figuring he might fit the profile for a pass-rushing outside linebacker in the Cardinals' 3-4 scheme. He's on the shorter side at not quite 6-foot-2, and there is no clear consensus on whether Upshaw projects as an outside linebacker. The height factor seemed less important given that Arizona patterns its defensive scheme after the one Pittsburgh has used under Dick LeBeau. The Steelers' LaMarr Woodley (6-2) and James Harrison (6-0) get the job done. Could Upshaw enjoy situational success the way Smith did as a rookie for San Francisco last season? Receiver Michael Floyd was a consideration for Arizona. I thought the Cardinals needed improved quarterback play more than they needed improved receiver talent.
- 49ers at No. 30. Wright was the choice simply because he appeared to be the highest-rated receiver available, but the 49ers could easily go in another direction. Quite a few mock drafts have linked Georgia Tech's Stephen Hill to the 49ers, but he was not available to them in this mock, having gone 22nd to Cleveland. I was drafting more for position than for the specific player. The 49ers could use another cornerback. Perhaps Janoris Jenkins would have been a better value choice. He went 31st to New England in our mock. The 49ers could use a starting right guard, but they might already have one in Daniel Kilgore, a 2011 draft choice. Besides, how many first-round picks can one team use for offensive linemen? Current starters Joe Staley, Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis were first-rounders. Ultimately, the 49ers are picking this late for a reason. They don't have as many clearly defined needs as less successful teams. They're in good position to keep an open mind.
I used ESPN's 2012 NFL Draft Machine to make selections and keep general track of which players remained available as the mock unfolded. Toggling between the overall list and specific position lists made it easier to balance value with need.
This conversation is to be continued.
The NFL's transformation into a pass-happy league has sent teams scrambling for ways to keep up defensively.
2012 NFL Draft
Rd. 1: April 26, 8 p.m. ET
Rd. 2-3: April 27, 7 p.m. ET
Rd. 4-7: April 28, Noon ET
Radio City Music Hall
New York City
Draft order | Draft home
• Mel Kiper's latest mock
• Todd McShay's latest mock
• Mel Kiper's Big Board
• Todd McShay's Top 32
• Blog Network mock draft 2.0
• Draft Machine
AFC West blogger Bill Williamson snapped up three of them for the division he covers. Six other defensive linemen and 3-4 outside linebackers found homes elsewhere in the first round.
Offensive linemen (seven), defensive backs (five) and wide receivers (five) accounted for most of the remaining first-round selections.
In keeping with the pass-oriented theme, Alabama's Trent Richardson was the lone running back selected, landing in Cleveland with the fourth overall choice.
And, of course, we kicked off the mock with a couple of quarterbacks.
Analysis: They look at Luck and see a young guy who reminds them of the quarterback the franchise selected first overall in 1998. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Not much mystery here. The Redskins traded three first-round picks and a second-round pick to get to this spot, from which they believe they're taking their next franchise quarterback. The only way they don't take Griffin here is if the Colts take him, in which case the Redskins will happily take Luck. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: The Vikings would love to trade down a few spots, presumably with a team that wants to draft Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill. But barring a deal, Kalil is the best player remaining on the board and the Vikings just so happen to need a long-term starter at left tackle. We're not buying (yet) any of general manager Rick Spielman's posturing about LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Not buying the speculation that the Browns will take Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill here. The Browns tipped their hand when coach Pat Shurmur and general manager Tom Heckert skipped Tannehill's pro day to watch Richardson, the draft's only elite running back who can be the centerpiece of Cleveland's offense. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Bucs could be considering Richardson and he's a possibility if he stays on the board. But Claiborne is the top cornerback in this draft. The Bucs need a long-term replacement for veteran Ronde Barber and could need a short-term replacement for Aqib Talib, who could face prison time or a league suspension. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: The Rams are eager to find weapons for quarterback Sam Bradford. They had a tough time addressing that area during free agency despite an aggressive approach that led to deals with Cortland Finnegan, Scott Wells and others. The last time the Rams drafted a WR sixth overall, they landed Torry Holt. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: If he catches on quickly and can have an impact as a pass-rusher, Ingram can be the final piece for a very good defense. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Tannehill shot up the draft boards fast and may be a tad overrated at No. 8. But Miami needs a quarterback of the future in the worst way, and this is the best of what's left. Both Matt Moore and David Garrard have one year left on their contracts, leaving it open for Tannehill to take over in 2013. (James Walker)
Analysis: There's a common assumption the Panthers are locked in on getting a defensive tackle. That could end up happening. But they're open to all options and Kuechly might be the best player available. This team needs help anywhere it can add it on defense. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: Going receiver here is the sexy pick. But getting an offensive tackle to protect QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's blind side is the smart pick. Reiff received great coaching at Iowa, which has become Offensive Tackle U. He closes Buffalo's revolving door at left tackle for the foreseeable future. (James Walker)
Analysis: The Chiefs would be thrilled to see Poe on the board at 11. He is the best player available who fits their biggest need. Poe has a chance to be a dynamic player on a defense full of young talent. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The Seahawks ranked fifth in takeaways, seventh in points allowed and ninth in yards allowed last season, but their pass rush was lacking. Coples would give them a badly needed pass-rusher opposite Chris Clemons, who had 11 of the team's 33 sacks during the 2011 season. Linebacker is another need position. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Cardinals could also use an offensive tackle and possibly another receiver. Michael Floyd was a consideration here. But in Upshaw, the team would be targeting a potential No. 1 pass-rusher, providing welcome support for promising youngsters Sam Acho and O'Brien Schofield. The Cardinals have no second-round pick, and pass-rush help is at a premium. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: They were hoping Upshaw would fall to them, as he'd upgrade the pass rush instantly and could make Anthony Spencer expendable before long. But with Upshaw gone one pick before, the Cowboys stick with the national champs and take a safety to upgrade their biggest 2011 weakness: the secondary. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: Michael Brockers was tempting, but the pick here is Cox because he provides a pass rush from the interior of the defensive line right away and could be more NFL-ready than Brockers at this point. The Eagles are a win-now team that relies on its defensive line to pressure the passer, and Cox fits nicely into their interior line rotation. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: The Jets would like to go defense here under head coach Rex Ryan. But with Alabama DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw and safety Mark Barron both off the board, drafting Floyd is a good fallback option. Floyd has a chance to start from Day 1 opposite Santonio Holmes and gives quarterback Mark Sanchez a much-needed weapon. (James Walker)
Analysis: The Bengals need a starting right guard, and DeCastro is the best guard in the draft. Smart and fundamentally sound, DeCastro is one of the safest picks this year and would extend the Bengals' recent good fortune in the draft. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: Mercilus is the best pass-rusher on the board at No. 18 and the Chargers would be happy to take him. He could be a slight over-draft, but he has big league potential. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: Coach Lovie Smith expressed confidence last week in left tackle J'Marcus Webb, but rarely will you hear a coach say otherwise until he has an upgraded replacement. Webb was penalized 15 times last season and gave up 12 sacks, according to Pro Football Focus. Martin would provide an upgrade at a key position. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: They can go many different directions, but Kamerion Wimbley doesn't solve their pass-rush issues by himself, and Perry can help. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Cincinnati has done a great job in bolstering the depth at cornerback in free agency, signing Jason Allen and Adam Jones. But the Bengals, who eventually need to replace veteran Nate Clements, can't pass on the second-best cornerback falling into their laps. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Browns need speed and a deep threat. Look no further than Hill, who averaged 29.3 yards per catch last season (albeit 28 receptions) and ran faster than Baylor's Kendall Wright at the NFL combine. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: ESPN.com colleagues chose Gilmore in my absence based on an obvious need the Lions have at cornerback. Starter Eric Wright departed via free agency, and the Lions' pass defense collapsed in the second half of 2011. General manager Martin Mayhew doesn't draft for need, but Gilmore would address a big one. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Inside linebacker is a big need for the Steelers after they released James Farrior. Hightower excelled in Alabama's 3-4 defense and was the unquestioned leader on the nation's top defense. Seems like a perfect fit. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Broncos would gladly snag Brockers. Defensive tackle is, by far, their most pressing need, and the versatile Brockers is a good value at No. 25. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: Randle's size will make him a nice target for Matt Schaub and the Texans, and he brings a lot of upside to an offense that's already quite good. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: The Patriots need athleticism on defense and the ability to rush the passer from the outside. Branch can help replace the combined 20 sacks New England lost this offseason with the departures of DEs Mark Anderson and Andre Carter. (James Walker)
Analysis: In my absence, ESPN.com colleagues chose Konz, the draft's top center, knowing that veteran Jeff Saturday is likely a one-year bridge from departed starter Scott Wells. General manager Ted Thompson will almost certainly draft a center, but he might wait until a later round knowing he has 2012 insurance in Saturday. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: The Ravens have a history of top prospects falling to them in the first round. Their luck would continue with Glenn, an athletic and versatile blocker who would start immediately at left guard. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: Receiver was the team's obvious top need heading into free agency. Adding Randy Moss and Mario Manningham bought some flexibility, but Moss represents a short-term investment. The 49ers could use another young receiver to grow with Alex Smith and, eventually, Colin Kaepernick. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Patriots were surprised such a top-end talent is available at No. 31. Sure, Jenkins comes with some character concerns. But New England's strong locker-room leadership will make sure it gets the best out of Jenkins, who has the physical ability to develop into a legit No. 1 corner. (James Walker)
Analysis: This was a tough call, because Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones just looks so much like a Giants pick. He's a super-athletic, high-upside pass-rusher from Tom Coughlin's alma mater. I mean, if Adams weren't on the board, this would have been a slam dunk. And the Giants still could go this way, or with Nebraska LB Lavonte David or Stanford TE Coby Fleener. But there's nothing wrong with Adams' upside potential, either. He becomes the Giants' starting right tackle right away, and if Will Beatty doesn't pan out, Adams has the ability to someday play on the left side. (Dan Graziano)
Scout's take: 2012 NFC West QB situations
The Seattle Seahawks' Pete Carroll and John Schneider flew to Denver in a failed attempt to catch Manning before the quarterback departed for Arizona.
The Cardinals met with Manning at their facility.
The San Francisco 49ers then emerged as a surprise finalist for Manning, with Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh flying to watch Manning work out in North Carolina.
Manning was a special case, to be sure, but those teams' interest also reflected on relatively weak quarterback situations in Seattle, Arizona and San Francisco. The position has stabilized within the division since Manning signed with Denver, providing an opportunity to bring in Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. for thoughts on where teams stand.
Mike Sando: Let's begin with the Seahawks, the only team in the division to bring in a new likely starter from the outside. Does Matt Flynn improve the situation?
Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesMatt Flynn provides an upgrade for the Seahawks, but isn't a franchise QB, according to Matt Williamson.Sando: What limits your enthusiasm on him?
Williamson: His overall talent, his ability to throw the football, his size and strength -- they're all just a little above average. He was a seventh-round draft choice for a reason. You have to keep him ahead of the chains, you need the running game. He doesn't take the team on its shoulders if things fall apart around him. If you manufacture offense, know what he is capable of doing, minimize turnovers, I think you can win a lot of games that way. In the end, he is an upgrade. And they did not spend a fortune for him.
I look at Seattle like the arrow is going up, they are getting better in all areas and they are young. This is a nice signing. Tarvaris Jackson played well and he was injured, and he exceeded my expectations, but that is as good as he is going to play. He is still a liability more than an asset. Flynn can get to a point where he can be more of an asset than a liability.
Sando: You said we've seen the best from Jackson. A lot of people think we've seen the best from the 49ers' Alex Smith as well.
Williamson: I agree. I really think it's going to be Colin Kaepernick's job not far down the line. They are going out and getting vertical guys, guys who can really run. That doesn't fit Alex Smith. Yes, it will open up room for Frank Gore and Vernon Davis, but after a while, people are going to realize they don't have to take away the deep ball. I think Harbaugh wants Kaepernick out there. He wants a guy to use the whole field.
Sando: The contract Smith signed was for three seasons and can max out at $33 million, but the 49ers can easily exit the deal after one or two years and a lot less money.
Kyle Terada/US PRESSWIREThe 49ers brought back Alex Smith, but Colin Kaepernick, left, is San Francisco's future at QB.Sando: Smith did go 13-3 last season. He did make the winning plays against New Orleans in the wild-card round. Is the trajectory pointing up on him?
Williamson: Smith minimized the negative plays and will never be any better than he was doing that. He may get more confident, may make a few more throws, but what we saw in that one playoff game will be few and far between. He is an OK player, but has a real low ceiling.
Sando: Cardinals fans are hoping that comment doesn't apply to Kevin Kolb as well. Kolb had trouble staying on the field last season, missing extended period with toe and head injuries. He struggled when he was on the field as well.
AP Photo/Elaine ThompsonArizona's Kevin Kolb, right, has a lot to prove to season after struggling through an injury-filled 2011.Sando: Arizona saw enough to pay a $7 million bonus to Kolb, keeping him on the roster. The alternative was heading toward the draft with John Skelton as the only starting prospect. That would have been rough. What about Kolb bothered you the most last season?
Williamson: I just didn’t see anything to get excited about. Didn’t see tools or the willingness to hang in the pocket. Maybe he was just uncomfortable. A couple guys who floundered last season could step up big after having a regular offseason. I just did not see anything. Kolb does not stand as firm in the pocket as I would like. I'd like to see him more willing to take hits to deliver the football.
Sando: Kolb did that well on a deep pass to Larry Fitzgerald at Washington early in the season, absorbing a crushing hit to complete a game-changing pass. But that play was an exception. Kolb did bail from pressure too frequently, and he could not stay on the field.
Williamson: Ken Whisenhunt was used to Ben Roethlisberger, who is the opposite. Kurt Warner is the opposite, too. He would take a hit, let it go at the absolute last second.
Sando: Any discussion about quarterbacks getting hit should include the St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford. He took 36 sacks in 10 games last season. Bradford has a new offensive coordinator, Brian Schotteneheimer, and a new head coach promising to protect him.
Williamson: I am a Bradford guy who had no problem with their decision not to take Robert Griffin III. The Rams have had as good an offseason as anyone. The more I look at last season -- mix in Bradford's injuries, the bad line, having no weapons -- it was an impossible endeaver. Throw that away. Jeff Fisher is smart and has a history of bringing along guys slowly, of running Eddie George and playing defense. Schottenheimer did a ton of that with the Jets, maybe even too much, but he had to.
Sando: Right. Schottenheimer was trying to take off pressure from Mark Sanchez, at least until last season.
Williamson: Sanchez isn't close to Bradford. My concern with the Rams would be two years from now, if Bradford still does look like the first overall pick, will they take the reins off? Harnessing him back now, I have no problem with that. Win some games, lean on others. But will they allow him to be great when he is ready? They are conservative by nature.
Sando: Shorter term, the Rams haven't done anything to help Bradford in the playmaker department. They've actually gotten worse in that area after losing Brandon Lloyd to free agency.
Williamson: They will end up with Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon in the draft, but it would have been nice to add some kind of veteran. Maybe Mario Manningham. At least a No. 2 type. They do have a lot of young guys from last year and maybe someone steps up, but it's not real exciting. I would not have paid what Pierre Garcon got, though. Robert Meachem got good money too. St. Louis is not the most attractive free-agent landing spot for a receiver right now. But the team is set up for the long term, at least. They will get a top-10-type stud wideout in the next year or two.
Sando: Thanks for the conversation, Matt. I'll be on the lookout for you next Football Today podcast, which posts right here each week. The next one goes live Monday.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
