NFC West: Robert Turbin

NFC West teams loaded up on halfbacks (as opposed to pure fullbacks) during the recently completed 2013 NFL draft.

The division selected six of them, two more than any other division selected.



A quick look at how the six could figure into their teams' plans:
  • Second round, 62nd overall: Christine Michael, Texas A&M. Michael heads to the Seattle Seahawks as the third back behind Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, with a chance to challenge Turbin for the No. 2 role initially. Michael provides longer-term insurance for the position, but he could be talented enough to get carries as a rookie.
  • Fourth round, 131st overall: Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina. The San Francisco 49ers plan to give Lattimore as much as one full season to complete his rehabilitation from a career-threatening knee injury. Lattimore factors into the 49ers' longer-term plans at the position, possibly as a replacement for Frank Gore down the line. There will be no rush to get him on the field in 2013.
  • Fifth round, 140th overall: Stepfan Taylor, Stanford. The Arizona Cardinals already have Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams, but both have had injury problems. Taylor, the career rushing leader at Stanford, provides immediate insurance at the position. His credentials as a power runner could make him a candidate to handle short-yardage duties. Durability has been a strength for Taylor, differentiating him from Mendenhall and Williams. Coach Bruce Arians values three-down backs. He considers Taylor one of them.
  • Fifth round, 160th overall: Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt. The St. Louis Rams plan to use Stacy in committee with Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson. Stacy is heavier and stouter than the others. He appears better suited for handling a workload on early downs and in short-yardage situations. Stacy could wind up getting more carries than any of the other rookie backs in the division.
  • Sixth round, 187th overall: Andre Ellington, Clemson. The Cardinals expect to keep four running backs on the roster, giving Ellington a very good chance to stick as a change-of-pace back with big-play potential and value in the return game. The Cardinals said they weren't planning on drafting another back, but they thought the value was strong and that Ellington provided a style the other backs on the roster did not provide.
  • Sixth round, 194th overall: Spencer Ware, LSU. Ware was a halfback for the Tigers, but he has also played fullback. The Seahawks expect the 230-pound Ware to push veteran fullback Michael Robinson. They value Robinson as a lead blocker and for his contributions on special teams. Ware would be the better runner of the two.
Good morning, NFC West. After spending some of Wednesday discussing the long-term future for Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch, we should update the short-term future as well.

Lynch's 2012 DUI case is scheduled to continue with a May 22 motion for dismissal. The case is otherwise scheduled for trial June 21, although attorneys routinely succeed in securing continuances.

Eric Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune has the details. Meanwhile, Danny O'Neil and Brock Huard of 710ESPN Seattle offer thoughts on the court information and Lynch's absence (so far) from voluntary offseason workouts.

The takeaway is pretty simple. There's not enough information to know whether Lynch faces additional discipline from the NFL in the form of a possible suspension, but in the bigger picture, Seattle had ample reason to consider drafting a running back as insurance.

Seattle's use of the 62nd overall choice for Texas A&M running back Christine Michael provides protection for the short and long term. It puts the team in position to remain fully committed to its ground game without being overly reliant on Lynch. Michael and second-year pro Robert Turbin could carry a full workload if necessary.

Lynch has always done things his own way, whether it's attending offseason workouts, refusing to fulfill league-mandated media obligations or engaging in risky off-field behavior.

The Seahawks can live with small inconveniences as long as Lynch remains a highly productive player. There is no way to know how long Lynch will remain a highly productive player, however. Back spasms have limited his availability for practices, threatened his availability for games and prevented him from playing once.
Christine Michael and Marshawn LynchGetty ImagesChristine Michael, left, gives the Seahawks additional running back depth behind Marshawn Lynch.
Jump ahead to 2015 and put yourself in John Schneider's seat as the Seattle Seahawks' general manager.

By then, you will have re-signed or lost elite players such as safety Earl Thomas and cornerback Richard Sherman.

Your quarterback, Russell Wilson, will be entering the final year of his rookie contract. Wilson will be eligible to sign a new one for the first time under the NFL's labor rules.

The same goes for Bobby Wagner, your starting middle linebacker, and Bruce Irvin, your highly drafted pass-rusher. All will cost much more than they're costing right now.

Your Pro Bowl left tackle, Russell Okung, will also be entering a contract year.

One receiver, Percy Harvin, will have a contract counting $12.9 million against the salary cap. Another, Sidney Rice, will have a deal counting $10.2 million.

Oh, and one other thing about this 2015 adventure: You'll have to decide whether to pay a $2 million roster bonus and $5.5 million salary for a running back entering his ninth season.

Marshawn Lynch is that running back, and right now, in 2013, he's about as good as they come, this side of Adrian Peterson. But you'll need younger, more economical alternatives for some of your best players down the line. These aren't the sort of immediate needs that show up in draft previews, but they're always lurking.

Now, thanks to one of the more surprising moves in the 2013 draft, the Seahawks have bought insurance for their future at the position most vulnerable to age.

Christine Michael, the Texas A&M running back Seattle unexpectedly selected 62nd overall Friday, must by rule sign a four-year contract through 2016. His deal will run past the contracts that Lynch and backup running back Robert Turbin signed last offseason. It will count far less against the cap than the $9 million Lynch's deal is scheduled to count in 2015.

Seattle probably did not draft Michael with the distant future in the front of its mind. One explanation trumps all others when determining why the Seahawks used a second-round draft choice for a running back with two perfectly good ones on the roster already. The team thinks Michael can be special.

"He was the highest-rated player on our board and we lost Leon Washington, so we were looking for a little bit of depth there, and he is just our kind of runner," Schneider said. "He's a tough, intense, up-field, one-cut guy, and he's just a very good football player, competitor."

Adding Michael does not imperil Lynch for the 2013 season, of course. It does provoke natural tendencies to wonder whether there's more to this story.

"I could be far-fetched here," Kevin from McKinney, Texas, wrote to the NFC West mailbag, illustrating how far the mind can wander, "but is it possible John Schneider and [coach] Pete Carroll are concerned with Lynch's future effectiveness due to the new lowering of the crown rule? It seems to me that is a big part of his game and significantly contributes to his yards after contact."

There is no way the rulebook pressured Seattle into drafting a running back.

Carroll and other coaches fear officials will struggle enforcing the new rule preventing runners from lowering their heads and delivering an aggressive blow to the opponent with the top of the helmet. The rule could affect Lynch, but league officials said they discovered only a few would-be violations per week when studying tape from last season.

The Seahawks selected Michael because they thought he was the best back in the draft and well-suited to their offense. They wanted additional depth for their running game, which will remain the focus of their offense. They have to realize that Lynch's back spasms, while manageable to this point, could become more problematic with additional wear and tear. And they surely realize that Lynch's occasional off-field troubles dating to his time with the Buffalo Bills could recur, inviting sanctions.

Adding Michael doesn't mean the team thinks less of Lynch or Turbin, a 2012 fourth-round choice. There are no indications the team is anticipating a Lynch suspension in relation to his DUI arrest last offseason.

Still, I would bet against Lynch playing out the final year of his deal when Michael and Turbin figure to be available at a significant discount.

Seattle was fortunate in 2010 to have a running back of Lynch's caliber and young age (then 24) become available by trade at reasonable cost. The team was wise to re-sign Lynch one year ago to a four-year deal featuring $17 million in guaranteed money.

This marriage should be good for both parties for the next couple of seasons.

Lynch's deal pays him $7 million in salary with an $8.5 million salary-cap charge in 2013. It carries a $5 million salary and $7 million cap number in 2014. The team will have a decision to make at that point because Lynch's deal includes a $5.5 million salary and a $2 million roster bonus with a $9 million cap figure for 2015, the contract's final year.

Michael, a luxury buy at present, should be much more than that by then.
Percy Harvin and Tavon AustinGetty ImagesSeeing Tavon Austin (right) go the the Rams at No. 8 validated Seattle's trade for Percy Harvin.

RENTON, Wash. -- The more the Seattle Seahawks watched game tape on Tavon Austin, the more they realized the West Virginia receiver would not last long in the 2013 NFL draft.

Back in mid-March, the Seahawks could not know Austin would land with the NFC West-rival St. Louis Rams. They had recently traded the 25th overall choice to the Minnesota Vikings to acquire another multidimensional wideout, Percy Harvin.

John Schneider, the Seahawks' general manager, felt relief Thursday when the Rams traded up eight spots in the first round to make Austin the first skill-position player selected.

It's not that Schneider was happy to see such an elite talent land in St. Louis. Quite the opposite. Even the Seahawks' suffocating secondary could have its troubles against a receiver as gifted as Austin. It's just that the way the first round played out affirmed the Seahawks' decision to acquire Harvin. They could not have secured another wideout with as much playmaking potential had they held onto the 25th overall pick.

Austin wasn't going to be there for them.

Once the Rams moved up from 16th to eighth for Austin, no NFL teams selected a wideout until the Houston Texans drafted Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins at No. 27. Cordarrelle Patterson went to the Vikings two picks later.

"Quite honestly, it made me feel at peace just because of where we were with the Percy deal when it started," Schneider said following the third round Friday night.

Both Hopkins and Patterson are obviously talented, but if they had struck evaluators as fitting into the Austin/Harvin mold, teams would have been tripping over one another in a rush to draft them earlier.

Schneider's thinking came into clearer focus in the weeks since Seattle made the move for Harvin before free agency opened March 12.

"I really wasn't quite sure, didn't feel really strongly about the difference makers at the receiver position at that level of the first round [in the 25th-pick range]," Schneider reflected. "And then the closer we got to the draft, the tape on Austin, it just kind of became obvious that he was going to be an extremely high pick."

That commentary should please Rams fans and Seahawks fans alike. Each team's leadership thought Austin was special. The Seahawks knew they had to deal for Harvin if they hoped to land a similar player. Not that Austin and Harvin are interchangeable. While both threaten the end zone as receivers, runners and returners, Harvin has a much sturdier build. He's part running back and part receiver in a much fuller sense. But touchdowns are touchdowns, and both teams expect their new wideouts to supply them multiple ways.

"We really do think Percy is our No. 1 pick," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. "He is part of this class."

Acquiring Harvin and addressing other areas of the roster during free agency left Seattle without significant needs entering this draft. That allowed the Seahawks, already loaded in the backfield with Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, to indulge in Texas A&M running back Christine Michael.

This was a luxury pick and arguably a nonsensical one. It's also the sort of move smart organizations make. Seattle didn't have a need at quarterback when the team used a third-round draft choice for Russell Wilson last season. That move worked out pretty well.

The Seahawks could realistically be in the market for a new back two years down the line if Lynch's bruising style shortens his career. Having Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter on the roster didn't stop the San Francisco 49ers from using a second-round choice for LaMichael James last year. The 49ers took some heat when their 2012 draft class failed to produce much, but such is life for contending teams.

"We'll let these guys go at it, make sure everybody is aware of the competitive opportunity and hopefully that continues to make them elevate," Carroll said. "Sometimes there is a subtle way they help us by making other guys play well."

Not that Seattle was without needs entirely.

"Defensive tackle was definitely a need for us -- adding depth to the position," Schneider said. "That was the one spot that quite honestly, when you're putting it together, you are nervous you are maybe pushing players because of the need."

Seattle used its third-round choice (87th overall) for Penn State defensive tackle Jordan Hill. He'll probably contribute more as a pass-rusher than a run stuffer, differentiating him clearly from Alan Branch, who left in free agency. The Seahawks felt the talent at defensive tackle was about to drop off quickly as the third round gave way to the fourth. That gave them additional incentive to grab Hill.

The Seahawks hold 10 picks in the fourth through seventh rounds. Schneider and Carroll previously found K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor in that range. Others such as Turbin, Walter Thurmond, Jeremy Lane, Anthony McCoy, J.R. Sweezy and Malcolm Smith came to Seattle in those rounds.

There might not be a Tavon Austin or Percy Harvin out there, but as the Seahawks and Rams discovered, that was the case eight picks into the draft.
The Seattle Seahawks entered the 2013 NFL draft with few (if any) pressing needs.

The team flaunted it a bit, it seemed, by using a second-round selection for a running back even though Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin combine to make that position one of great strength.

Seattle addressed one of its needs in the third round by selecting Penn State defensive tackle Jordan Hill with the 87th overall choice. San Francisco traded into the 88th slot to take pass-rusher Corey Lemonier from Auburn, and fellow division rival St. Louis was set to be on the clock shortly at No. 92.

The Seahawks will be saving money at defensive tackle in 2013 after letting Alan Branch leave in free agency. Seattle added free-agent defensive tackle Tony McDaniel in a modest deal. Hill will join the rotation. Scouting reports suggest he's better at rushing the passer than defending the run. We'll hear more from coach Pete Carroll in a bit.
The Seattle Seahawks have selected a running back, Christine Michael of Texas A&M, with the final pick of the second round after trading back.

This one should catch everyone off-guard.

Seattle appears stacked at running back with Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin. The team could use a defensive tackle, an outside linebacker, a tight end and possibly depth for the offensive line.

NFL teams drafted no running backs in the first round. Michael was the fifth and final one taken in the second round.

I'll be interested in hearing the Seahawks' explanation for this pick. I'm guessing we'll hear the team talk about taking the best player available.

Seattle had no first-round pick after trading it to Minnesota for Percy Harvin. Now, it's looking like the team's second-round choice won't play much right away, assuming Lynch and Turbin are on course to be the primary backs, as expected. Perhaps Seattle has a specific role in mind.
Quarterbacks give way to running backs as Matt Williamson and I discuss the NFC West positional rankings Williamson provided in his role as scout for ESPN.com.

Those rankings are available in the chart at right.

Matt ranks the Seattle Seahawks No. 1 at running back, followed by the San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams.



Williamson: This one was easy for me. I'd be shocked if anyone put them in different order.

Sando: We can always revisit this position after the draft. The Rams will presumably select a bigger back to round out their backfield by committee. Even then, however, St. Louis will be proceeding with largely unproven players at the position. That is by design. It also makes it tougher to justify ranking the Rams higher without additional evidence.

Williamson: To me, St. Louis' backfield is utterly unproven. I don't think Isaiah Pead or Daryl Richardson is a lead back. Both are committee guys, but we haven't seen enough from either one to say either is as good as Rashard Mendenhall in Arizona. And I've always liked Ryan Williams a lot. In Mendenhall and Williams, the Cardinals have two guys you could hit a home run with.

Sando: A couple years ago, you suggested Steven Jackson had lost a step. Jackson is now gone from the Rams. The 49ers' Frank Gore is actually a couple months older than Jackson. Both will be 30 this offseason. Do you see Gore declining? Is that why you ranked the Seahawks No. 1 at running back?

Williamson: Seattle has the best back in the division in Marshawn Lynch, and Robert Turbin is a heckuva backup. It's not a knock on Gore. I like LaMichael James and like Kendall Hunter, too. So, the 49ers have three guys to talk about instead of two for Seattle.

Sando: James and Hunter look like keepers. The 49ers are in position to limit Gore's carries to keep him fresh.

Williamson: I would lighten his load, give him 90 percent of a full workload. The 49ers are a contender. They need 20 games from Gore, not 16. I'd be thinking big picture.

Sando: Gore had 351 touches in 2012 and 341 in 2011, counting playoffs. That's up from 271 per season from 2008 through 2010. Gore missed nine games to injury over that span. He has missed one game over the past two seasons combined. But that postseason workload is something to keep in mind for the upcoming season.

We'll look at wide receivers next.

Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh Ric Tapia/Icon SMIPete Carroll's Seahawks and Jim Harbaugh's 49ers have continued their rivalry into the offseason.
The 2012 battle for NFC West supremacy between the San Francisco 49ers' and Seattle Seahawks' has turned into a perceived battle this offseason.

"It just feels like the Seahawks make a move, then the Niners make a move," former NFL quarterback Damon Huard said Wednesday during our conversation on 710 ESPN Seattle. "The Seahawks sign Percy Harvin, then the Niners go get Anquan Boldin. The Niners just signed Nnamdi Asomugha, they signed Colt McCoy, and now it's the Seahawks' turn to sign a quarterback. It really feels like this competition that was so fun to watch last fall has carried over into the offseason between the Niners and the Seahawks."

That's what it feels like from this angle, too. So, when ESPN's Bill Polian listed 49ers general manager Trent Baalke among his top six executives Insider without a mention of Seattle counterpart John Schneider, I knew some Seahawks fans would take offense.

"Schneider should be on there," SamW9801 wrote in commenting on the Polian piece.

I'm going to ratchet up the discussion with an assist from Tony Villiotti of draftmetrics.com. Tony identified ranges of picks by how frequently teams have found five-year starters within those ranges.

Using those general ranges, displayed at right, I've put together a chart at the bottom of this item comparing the 49ers' and Seahawks' draft choices since 2010.

Baalke took over the 49ers' draft room roughly a month before the 2010 draft. Schneider became the Seahawks' GM that offseason. The 49ers then underwent a coaching change after the 2010 season, at which point Baalke assumed the GM title officially. We might cut Baalke some slack for selecting Taylor Mays, a player then-coach Mike Singletary valued. There were surely other times when both GMs followed their coaches' input, for better or worse.

Seattle has drafted 28 players during this period, three more than San Francisco has drafted. The Seahawks had more to work with from a qualitative point as well. Their median choice was No. 130 overall, compared to No. 165 for the 49ers.

It's pretty clear both teams know what they are doing in the draft.

Aldon Smith, Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati and NaVorro Bowman have earned Pro Bowl and/or All-Pro honors for the 49ers. Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Russell Wilson, Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman have done so for the Seahawks.

Both teams have found franchise quarterbacks after the first round. Colin Kaepernick was chosen 36th overall in 2011. Wilson went to Seattle at No. 75 last year.

Neither team has missed in that first category, which includes players taken among the top 13 overall picks. Smith and Okung are elite players at premium positions.

Both teams have unanswered questions in that 14-40 range. The 49ers are waiting on receiver A.J. Jenkins to produce. The Seahawks haven't gotten much from guard James Carpenter. But in Iupati and Thomas, the 49ers and Seahawks, respectively, found players among the very best at their positions. Kaepernick's selection puts this group over the top for San Francisco. Seattle got eight sacks from Bruce Irvin as a rookie in 2012, so the Seahawks aren't far behind. It's just impossible to overlook the value a franchise quarterback provides.

Seattle has the edge in the 41-66 range. Mays is long gone from the 49ers. That leaves LaMichael James for the 49ers against Bobby Wagner and Golden Tate for Seattle. Wagner was an instant starter at middle linebacker and a three-down player who commanded consideration for defensive rookie of the year. Tate blossomed with Wilson at quarterback.

The Seahawks also have an edge in that 67-86 range, having selected Wilson.

Seattle holds a 7-3 lead in number of picks used between the 87th and 149th choices, a range producing five-year starters 16 percent of the time, according to Villiotti.

Both teams used picks in that range for players whose injury situations dragged down their draft status: Joe Looney in San Francisco, Walter Thurmond in Seattle. Both teams found starting linebackers in this range: Bowman to the 49ers, K.J. Wright to the Seahawks. Both teams found developmental running backs in that range: Kendall Hunter to the 49ers, Robert Turbin to the Seahawks. Both teams found Pro Bowl players: Bowman in San Francisco, Chancellor in Seattle.

Sherman, arguably the NFL's best cornerback, gives Seattle an edge in the 150 through 189 range of picks. Both teams found backup tight ends there. Anthony Dixon (49ers) and Jeremy Lane (Seahawks) have the potential to expand their roles.

The 49ers found starting fullback Bruce Miller in the final pick range, which runs from 190 to the end of the draft. Seattle found a projected starting guard there in J.R. Sweezy. Malcolm Smith is a candidate to start at linebacker for Seattle. Miller and Sweezy both played defense in college. Miller already has successfully transitioned to offense. Seattle believes Sweezy will do the same.

Summing it up: Both teams can feel good about their draft performance in the past three seasons. I doubt either team would trade its picks for the other team's. That makes sense. Teams draft the players they like best. The 49ers have six projected 2013 starters to show for their choices. The number is eight for the Seahawks, not counting Irvin or Tate. Seattle has had more choices and higher choices, and more openings in the lineup to accommodate those players. I think that shows in the results.

NFL big plays: Who and what makes them

February, 25, 2013
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NFL teams spent Sunday watching running backs and wide receivers work out at the NFL scouting combine. As always, teams are looking for players with big-play ability.

But what is a big play?

In my experience, NFL teams tend to see them as runs covering 12-plus yards and passes covering 16-plus yards.



Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch used different measures in a recent piece suggesting the St. Louis Rams need to find a game-breaking player in the draft. But the idea is the same across the board. The longer the play, the better for offenses.

I've put together a couple charts showing where NFC West teams stood last season in big plays, using NFL teams' definition of them. The Rams had 102, which is about the same as they had in 2011 (100) and 2010 (100). They had 89 in 2009.

Rams quarterback Sam Bradford led the NFC West with 66 of these 16-plus completed passes. Seattle's Russell Wilson was second with 64. San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick (41) and Alex Smith (32) combined for 73. John Skelton (26), Kevin Kolb (20), Ryan Lindley (12) and Brian Hoyer (4) combined for Arizona's total of 62.

The San Francisco 49ers had 126 total big plays, up from 108 in each of the previous two seasons. Seattle had 121, a rise from 95 in 2011, 100 in 2010 and 80 in 2009. Arizona had 84, down from its totals in 2011 (103), 2010 (102) and 2009 (122).

The first chart shows totals for last season. The chart below shows individual NFC West leaders, also from last season.

The Seahawks and 49ers pumped up their totals for rushing with additional quarterback runs covering at least 12 yards. Wilson (14) and Kaepernick (11) combined for 25 of them. Smith added two for the 49ers. Kolb had five. Bradford had three.

We can revisit in the future whether the 12- and 16-yard cutoffs are most meaningful. I just know those are the cutoffs teams cite when evaluating players and offensive production.

Closer look at Wells and NFC West RBs

February, 22, 2013
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At his best, Beanie Wells can be a big, physical runner with a wicked stiff-arm and a strong nose for the end zone.

Wells was not at his best last season.

The Arizona Cardinals running back had 88 carries for 234 yards and five touchdowns in eight games. He was on the field for 152 snaps, a career low and down from 583 in 2011, when Wells rushed for 1,099 yards and 10 touchdowns.



"I think Beanie had a tough stretch this year because of the injuries," Cardinals general manager Steve Keim told reporters from the NFL scouting combine. "He showed a lot of grit, a lot of toughness late in the year when he was able to. He's had some injuries, so he had a difficult time with his cut ability and his lateral movement, but Beanie is still a big horse who can finish runs and create yardage after contact, which is something that excites us."

That last comment ran counter to my perception of Wells last season.

Of the 74 backs with at least 200 yards rushing last season, Wells ranked 73rd in yards after contact per rushing attempt, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Wells was at 1.12 yards per carry after contact. Only New Orleans scatback Darren Sproles had a lower average (1.0) among those 74 players. The average for those 74 players was 1.7. Adrian Peterson was at 2.9.

Keim was alluding more to the ability Wells has shown in the past, when he was healthier. Wells averaged 2.2 yards per carry after contact in 2011. The average was 1.9 in 2010 and 2.1 as a rookie first-round choice in 2009.

Wells is scheduled to earn $1.4 million in base salary for 2013, the final year of his contract. The comments from Keim made it sound like the team was leaning toward sticking with Wells for another season, but that could change depending upon what happens in free agency and the draft. The team has envisioned fielding a strong one-two punch in the backfield with Wells and 2011 second-round choice Ryan Williams, but injuries have intervened. Williams has missed 29 of 32 games.

"I saw Ryan in our weight room the other day, and he's doing fantastic," Keim said. "He's a guy that, watching film with Bruce [Arians], because he got injured early in the season, you forgot the type of run skills Ryan had. We watched him against Philadelphia, we watched him against New England, his lateral quickness, his natural run skills, his avoidability is something he brings to the table. Plus, he's a three-down back. We're expecting big things out of Ryan moving forward."

Final Word: NFC West

December, 21, 2012
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 16:

Mandatory viewing, optional running. The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks will be showcasing throw-first quarterbacks with the ability to beat defenses with their legs as well. The 49ers' Colin Kaepernick has two 50-yard runs in fourth quarters of recent games. The Seahawks' Russell Wilson had 92 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns last week, but his decisions from the option attack are what have given defenses the most trouble. Wilson has averaged 8.1 yards per carry on option runs over the past three games. Marshawn Lynch has averaged 13.0 yards on these plays over the same span. The 49ers have faced one zone-read play all season. They allowed 35 yards to the Buffalo Bills' Brad Smith on a Wildcat play in Week 5.

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Ahmad Brooks, Russell Wilson
Brian Bahr/Getty Images The 49ers limited Russell Wilson to 122 yards passing and 10 yards on the ground in Seattle's Week 7 loss to San Francisco.
Blowouts nice while they last. The Seahawks are the fourth team over the past 12 seasons to win back-to-back games by at least 33 points apiece. Their Week 16 opponent, San Francisco, accomplished the feat against Buffalo and the New York Jets earlier this season. Before that, only the 2005 Seahawks (Weeks 13-14) and 2002 Kansas City Chiefs (Weeks 13-14) had posted back-to-back blowouts of that magnitude since at least 2001. Nine total points have separated the Seahawks and 49ers in their two most recent matchups. A blowout appears unlikely for either team, in other words.

Containing a hot QB. Wilson leads the NFL in Total QBR over the past 10 weeks. The improvement he has shown against five or more pass-rushers -- 82.2 QBR score with six touchdowns and no interceptions since Week 8, compared with 23.3 QBR with no touchdowns and two interceptions previously -- might not apply Sunday.

San Francisco rarely rushes more than four defenders. The 49ers are the only team to hold Wilson below 50 percent completions when rushing four or fewer. Wilson completed 6 of 15 passes (40 percent) for 85 yards and a season-low 27.2 QBR score on those plays during Seattle's 13-6 defeat at San Francisco in Week 7. He has completed 68.1 percent with 15 touchdowns and an 85.2 QBR score on these plays against everyone else.

Give the 49ers some credit, but also note that Lynch, Evan Moore and Robert Turbin dropped passes -- two of them more than 20 yards downfield -- on three of those 15 attempts against standard pressure.

Putting clamps on Cutler. The Arizona Cardinals have regularly forced opposing quarterbacks into poor performances. Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan combined for one touchdown pass, nine interceptions, seven sacks and a 20.7 QBR score when facing Arizona this season. They have 73 touchdowns, 26 interceptions and a 74.8 QBR score against everyone else.

Chicago's Jay Cutler is on the Cardinals' menu in Week 16. Cutler ranks 36th out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR against five-plus pass-rushers. The Cardinals send five-plus rushers 41.5 percent of the time, the second-highest rate in the league. Opponents have 10 touchdowns, nine picks, 22 sacks and a 23.8 QBR against Arizona's added pressure.

Return games in focus. Patrick Peterson, Devin Hester, Leon Washington and Ted Ginn Jr. have combined for 35 career touchdowns on kickoff and punt returns. All four are in play during Week 16 games featuring NFC West teams. Niners rookie LaMichael James provided a pivotal 62-yard kickoff return last week, so let's include him in this discussion as well.

Among the more established returners listed above, Washington is the only one to find the end zone on a return this season. The others are struggling. Hester's Bears rank last in kickoff return average. Ginn has muffed or nearly muffed punts recently. I'll be watching to see whether one of these returners makes a game-changing play Sunday. The 49ers rank 31st in kick coverage, so perhaps Washington will have the best shot.

As a final word to this Final Word, note that the St. Louis Rams head to Tampa Bay ranked 30th in field-position margin at minus-5.8 yards. The Rams have not returned a kickoff for a touchdown since 2005. They have one punt return for a touchdown over the past five seasons (Nick Miller in 2011). The Buccaneers rank among the NFL's top 10 in starting field position on both sides of the ball, and in average field-position margin.

Rapid Reaction: Seahawks 58, Cardinals 0

December, 9, 2012
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Thoughts on the Seattle Seahawks' 58-0 victory over the Arizona Cardinals at CenturyLink Field in Week 14:

What it means: Seattle improved its playoff chances by improving to 8-5 in impressive fashion. The Cardinals played their worst game of the season and one of their worst ever in falling to 4-9 following a 4-0 start. Eight Arizona turnovers turned this game into a joke. Cardinals ownership surely wasn't laughing. It's tougher to envision coach Ken Whisenhunt holding on to his job after a debacle of this magnitude. This was the most lopsided defeat in Cardinals history and within one point of the largest shutout since 1940 (which happened twice).

What I liked: Both defenses showed up early, consistent with how NFC West games have been played over the past year or so. Seattle's Bobby Wagner picked off John Skelton's fourth attempt. Linebacker K.J. Wright broke up a pass for Larry Fitzgerald, and cornerback Walter Thurmond dove under the ball to tip it up in the air. Wagner caught it and headed the other way, the first of two picks for him. Arizona's defense then held Seattle to a field goal, sacking Russell Wilson on third down.

Wilson, pressured into ineffective play during a 20-16 defeat at Arizona in Week 1, had answers this time. That became apparent late in the first quarter when Wilson quickly dumped off to Anthony McCoy to beat a five-man pressure for a 21-yard gain. McCoy had three catches for 105 yards. Fellow tight end Zach Miller had a 24-yard touchdown grab.

Wilson played very well again. His lone pick came on a tipped pass while Seattle held a 31-0 lead in the second quarter.

What I didn't like: Skelton had four first-half turnovers in his first start since getting benched against Atlanta. That included a pick-six in the second quarter as the Cardinals fell behind 24-0. Even Patrick Peterson, one of Arizona's better players, contributed to the Cardinals' first-half futility by muffing one punt and losing a fumble while returning another. Seattle recovered both, one for a touchdown.

This was the worst loss in a Cardinals history filled with blowout defeats. The team lost 49-0 against Kansas City in 2002. The team previously lost by 46 points in 1941, 43 points in 1969, 42 points in 1944 and again in 1981.

Seahawks scoring record: Leon Washington's 3-yard touchdown run in the final three minutes gave Seattle a 58-0 lead while breaking the franchise single-game record for points scored. The team scored 56 points during a 56-17 victory over Buffalo in 1977. There was also a 51-48 victory over Kansas City in 1983. Seattle scored 49 points against San Diego in 1985, 48 points against Seattle in 2002 and 47 points twice.

Biggest shutout: The 58-0 margin was the largest for Seattle in a shutout. The team previously scored a 45-0 victory over Kansas City in 1984. The Seahawks' 2005 Super Bowl team beat Philadelphia 42-0 in a Monday night game. There was also a 41-0 victory over Jacksonville in 2009.

Beast mode: Marshawn Lynch carried 11 times for 128 yards and three touchdowns. He might have topped 250 yards rushing if Seattle had left him in the game. Nagging back issues sent him to the sideline for a bit, but Lynch returned and carried for a 15-yard gain. Backups Robert Turbin and Lon Washington fared well in relief.

Flynn's chance: Wilson's day was finished after only 13 passes. He completed seven of them for 148 yards (11.4 per attempt) and the touchdown to Miller. McCoy nearly scored on his 67-yard reception. Backup Matt Flynn, the player widely expected to start over Wilson heading into the season, got into the game and tried to push the ball downfield despite the fat lead. He completed 5 of 9 passes for 68 yards and did not take a sack.

What's next: The Seahawks face the Buffalo Bills in Toronto. The Cardinals are home against Detroit.

Fantasy Watch: Trends through Week 10

November, 18, 2012
11/18/12
11:03
AM ET
Our weekly look at playing-time trends in the NFC West, with an eye toward fantasy football:
  • Arizona Cardinals: Rookie receiver Michael Floyd has played about 60 percent of the Cardinals' offensive snaps over the past two weeks. He was at 38.4 percent previously. Early Doucet played a season-low 29.9 percent against Green Bay in Arizona's most recent game. His dropped passes have cleared the way for Floyd, who has earned additional playing time anyway. Second-year tight end Rob Housler has played 64.2 percent of the snaps since Todd Heap suffered a knee injury in Week 2. Housler played 22.5 percent over the first two games. The team expected Heap to have returned by now. It's unclear when Heap will return. Running back Beanie Wells, who could return from a toe injury Nov. 25, never played more than 38.5 percent of the snaps in a game when he was available this season. That will presumably change upon his return. The Cardinals need him.
  • St. Louis Rams: Receiver Brandon Gibson played a season-high 86.4 percent of the snaps against San Francisco last week. That was up from 53.1 percent the previous week. Rookie Chris Givens' return from a one-game team suspension figures to reduce snaps for Gibson, who did not help himself with a costly penalty for lining up improperly last week. Rookie Brian Quick played only eight percent of the snaps last week despite catching a touchdown pass early in the game. That was his lowest percentage for a game since Week 2. Backup tight end Matthew Mulligan has quietly played 38.9 percent of the snaps this season. Starter Lance Kendricks is at 82.5 percent. Kendricks has played increasingly well as a blocker and receiver. Danny Amendola played 85.2 percent of the snaps in his first game back from injury. Running back Steven Jackson was at 79.5 percent against the 49ers, his highest single-game total since playing 94.8 percent in the opener. He is at 64.8 percent for the season.
  • San Francisco 49ers: Receiver Randy Moss has played at least 35 percent of the snaps in each of the 49ers' last three games. He had done so only once this season previously, in Week 3. He is at 32.4 percent for the season. Michael Crabtree leads the receivers at 66.4 percent, followed by Mario Manningham (52.0), Kyle Williams (37.2) and Moss. Those figures count only games in which the players participated. Manningham missed one game. Running back Frank Gore played a season-high 82.1 percent against the Rams. He is at 70.7 percent for the season. Kendall Hunter is second among 49ers halfbacks at 26.2 percent. Fullback Bruce Miller is getting more time in recent weeks as the 49ers have recommitted to their conventional offense. Tight end Vernon Davis has played every offensive snap in each of the 49ers' last four games.
  • Seattle Seahawks: Quarterback Russell Wilson is the only non-offensive lineman in the division to play every offensive snap for his team this season. Tight end Zach Miller has played a higher percentage of the Seahawks' offensive snaps (84.7) than any other tight end, wide receiver or running back. Receiver Sidney Rice has been much more durable after having surgery on each shoulder during the offseason. The procedures were supposed to make it easier for Rice to participate in weight training to improve his strength. Rice has played 77.8 percent of the snaps to this point without missing a game. Fellow receiver Golden Tate has played 74 percent since missing the opener. Running back Marshawn Lynch played a season-low 60.3 percent against the New York Jets as Seattle headed into its bye week. He played more than 60.3 percent only four times all last season. Rookie Robert Turbin has played 18.8 percent for the season, but no less than that since Week 5.

Fantasy Watch: Running backs in Week 8

November, 4, 2012
11/04/12
9:15
AM ET
Our latest look at playing time in the NFC West, with an eye toward fantasy football and beginning with running backs:



Fullbacks generally don't factor for fantasy stats, but it's still interesting to see how many snaps they played.

Game situations tend to dictate whether they're on the field.

A team playing from behind generally wouldn't use a fullback as much, although Arizona, with its injury depleted backfield, did keep Anthony Sherman on the field quite a bit against the 49ers on Monday night.

Silver linings: Seahawks at 49ers

October, 23, 2012
10/23/12
6:20
PM ET
Looks like I forgot to run one of the customary post-defeat "Silver linings" files. Thanks for the heads up on my Facebook page, Pete.


The facts: The Seattle Seahawks fell to 4-3 with a 13-6 defeat to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7.

The upside: Even the worst defeats tend to feature a bright spot or two.
  • Officials assessed only three penalties against the Seahawks, the third time in four games Seattle had five or fewer in a game. The team had 32 over its first three games.
  • Marshawn Lynch reached 100 yards rushing for the second time in his past two games against the 49ers.
  • Seattle allowed 27 percent conversions on third down.
  • The Seahawks allowed one touchdown in four red zone possessions, picking off 49ers quarterback Alex Smith on one of those possessions.
  • Jason Jones and Greg Scruggs recorded sacks.
  • Seattle allowed zero receptions to 49ers tight end Vernon Davis, who had caught at least one pass in 58 consecutive games.
  • Center Max Unger received high marks for his work against 49ers nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga as Seattle averaged 4.7 yards per carry.
  • Russell Wilson threw accurately on deep passes for tight end Evan Moore and running back Robert Turbin.
  • The Seahawks allowed only one offensive touchdown for the fifth time in seven games.
  • Seattle limited an opponent to three or fewer points in the first quarter for the sixth time in seven games. The team has allowed 16 points in seven first quarters.
  • Seattle is finished with its divisional road schedule.
Looking ahead: The Seahawks visit Detroit in Week 8.
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