NFC West: Ryan Fitzpatrick
One quarterback from the 2005 NFL draft class remains in the playoffs this season.
See if you can find him in the chart. A hint: Alex Smith is his name.
See if you can find him in the chart. A hint: Alex Smith is his name.
Why young, ascending DBs can't get cocky
January, 11, 2012
Jan 11
2:21
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Mel Kiper Jr., in updating his draft-day grades for NFL teams for this Insider piece, says Seattle Seahawks rookie fifth-round pick Richard Sherman has helped to make the Seattle secondary "one of the best in the NFL in a really short period."
This is true. Sherman quickly served notice he could become one of the NFL's top corners. Fellow corner Brandon Browner and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also enjoyed strong seasons for Seattle.
Arizona also upgraded its secondary with cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 49ers added third-round corner Chris Culliver.
But before the NFC West's up-and-coming defensive backs get too cocky, they might want to check the 2012 list of opponents.
Every team in the division faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next season. Seattle also draws Cam Newton. Arizona gets Matt Ryan and Michael Vick. The 49ers face Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
There will be plenty of opportunities for young NFC West defensive backs to prove their mettle -- and also to suffer through sophomore slumps.
In 2011, Seattle faced four quarterbacks outside the division who finished the season with more than 20 touchdown passes: Romo (31), Ryan (29), Manning (29) and Ben Roethlisberger (21). Injuries spared them from facing Jay Cutler or Vick, who failed to reach 20 touchdowns largely because they missed games.
The Seahawks are scheduled to face seven such quarterbacks outside the division in 2012, weighted heavily at the top: Rodgers (45), Stafford (41), Brady (39), Romo (31), Mark Sanchez (26), Ryan Fitzpatrick (24) and Newton (21).
Cutler could be healthy when the teams meet again in 2012. Sanchez and Fitzpatrick often struggled. Still, the top of that list is loaded.
This is true. Sherman quickly served notice he could become one of the NFL's top corners. Fellow corner Brandon Browner and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also enjoyed strong seasons for Seattle.
Arizona also upgraded its secondary with cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 49ers added third-round corner Chris Culliver.
But before the NFC West's up-and-coming defensive backs get too cocky, they might want to check the 2012 list of opponents.
Every team in the division faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next season. Seattle also draws Cam Newton. Arizona gets Matt Ryan and Michael Vick. The 49ers face Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
There will be plenty of opportunities for young NFC West defensive backs to prove their mettle -- and also to suffer through sophomore slumps.
In 2011, Seattle faced four quarterbacks outside the division who finished the season with more than 20 touchdown passes: Romo (31), Ryan (29), Manning (29) and Ben Roethlisberger (21). Injuries spared them from facing Jay Cutler or Vick, who failed to reach 20 touchdowns largely because they missed games.
The Seahawks are scheduled to face seven such quarterbacks outside the division in 2012, weighted heavily at the top: Rodgers (45), Stafford (41), Brady (39), Romo (31), Mark Sanchez (26), Ryan Fitzpatrick (24) and Newton (21).
Cutler could be healthy when the teams meet again in 2012. Sanchez and Fitzpatrick often struggled. Still, the top of that list is loaded.
Bringing pressure? Some QBs simply shrug
November, 29, 2011
11/29/11
6:50
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The best NFL quarterbacks are good against standard and added pressure alike.
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
- Smith vs. four or fewer rushers: six touchdowns, four interceptions and 16 sacks in 222 dropbacks, with a 47.7 QBR (50 is average) and an 84.7 NFL passer rating.
- Smith vs. five or more: seven touchdowns, one interception and 14 sacks in 106 dropbacks, with a 57.2 QBR and 105.9 NFL rating.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.
AP Photo/Cliff OwenAlex Smith and the San Francisco 49ers own the second-best record in the NFL.The Philadelphia Eagles' Brandon Graham hit Smith. The ball hit the ground. Quintin Mikell picked it up and ran 52 yards for a touchdown, stretching the Eagles' lead to 24-10.
That sequence from Week 5 last season was a defining one for the 2010 49ers.
Smith encountered similar circumstances Sunday. Sensing pressure against the Washington Redskins, he rolled toward the left sideline and gathered himself to throw. He brought the ball back to begin the throwing motion just as the Redskins' Ryan Kerrigan delivered a big hit Smith never saw coming.
The difference this time: Smith held onto the ball. There would be no momentum-turning fumble return for the other team. I'm not sure how much credit Smith deserves for that result. Kerrigan appeared to drive the ball back into Smith's body. But the result was obviously better, and that is what mattered for the 49ers. They are 7-1 this season after dropping to 0-5 last season with that defeat to the Eagles.
Ends justify means in the NFL, but that doesn't mean the 49ers' opponents fear Smith the way they fear other quarterbacks with winning records and lofty NFL passer ratings. The fact that the 49ers have less reason to fear Smith largely explains why the team is doing so well with him behind center, in my view.
Eight other quarterbacks have winning records and NFL passer ratings of at least 90. All eight significantly outrank Smith in Total QBR, which reflects how much quarterbacks affect their teams' chances for winning on a play-by-play basis. All eight have far more passing yards, a higher average per attempt, more touchdown passes, far more first downs and considerably more long completions.
This confirms what we should know from watching games. Most of the other eight quarterbacks -- Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub and Ryan Fitzpatrick -- have proven themselves to be better than Smith. NFL teams have said as much by rewarding those other eight quarterbacks with sizable long-term contracts.
With Smith's deal expiring at year's end, his contract situation will need addressing.
If the 49ers continue on their current course, they'll have a first-round playoff bye, which could actually work against Smith by depriving him of a likely postseason victory. Still, given that the 49ers have proven they can win with Smith, they would presumably want him back.
Of those eight other quarterbacks mentioned above, Fitzpatrick compares to Smith more closely than the others. He's known more for being bright and managing games than for dominating them by carrying the offense.
But Fitzpatrick, who signed a six-year deal worth $59 million earlier this season, does outrank Smith by a wide margin in Total QBR, 61.6 to 42.8 (with 50 being average). Most of the difference stems from the sacks Smith has taken. But Smith has taken only five sacks over the 49ers' last four games, down from 14 over their previous three. And he does own the highest single-game QBR score in the NFL this season, a 98.2 out of 100 for his efforts during a 48-3 victory over Tampa Bay.
All things to consider while evaluating where quarterback play factors into the 49ers' success. It's an important question for the 49ers as they determine how much to value Smith and how to proceed at the position in the future. In the meantime, they can be thankful Fitzpatrick wasn't their quarterback Sunday. The Bills' starter finished his team's game with a 2.9 QBR, lowest among 26 qualifying quarterbacks Sunday.
The chart shows QBR scores for NFC West quarterbacks by week and for the season.
Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 9 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:
- John Skelton, Cardinals (53.9 QBR, 85.7 NFL rating): Skelton completed 20 of 35 passes for 222 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, three sacks and one fumble (recovered by Arizona) during the Cardinals' 19-13 overtime victory against St. Louis. He became the first quarterback since Rodgers in 2008 to take two safeties in one game, but he also threw the tying touchdown pass in the final five minutes of regulation. He also received some credit for yardage gained through an illegal contact penalty against the Rams during the tying drive.
- Sam Bradford, Rams (46.1 QBR, 73.3 NFL rating): Bradford completed 23 of 36 passes for 255 yards with no touchdowns, one interception, four sacks, no fumbles and a 2-yard gain on his only rushing attempt. He added a modest 2.8 expected points, according to the QBR formula. The division-high 1.4 clutch rating in the chart below reflects game situations, not how well Bradford performed in them. The column for "clutch weight average" reflects the significance of game situations defined by score, time remaining, etc.
- Alex Smith, 49ers (44.5 QBR, 109.7 NFL rating): Smith completed 17 of 24 passes for 200 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, two sacks and no fumbles during the 49ers' 19-11 victory at Washington. He ran four times for 9 yards, gaining 8 of those yards on a first-and-10 carry during a drive to a field goal. His passing added a modest 3.6 expected points to the 49ers' total. Sacks and penalties offset most of that. In the end, Smith added 1.1 total expected points on a modest 32 plays.
- Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks (25.9 QBR, 40.4 NFL rating): Jackson completed 17 of 30 passes for 221 yards with no touchdowns, three interceptions, one sack, no fumbles and two carries covering 3 yards during the Seahawks' 23-13 defeat at Dallas. He was the only quarterback in the division with a negative total for expected points, this despite the positive contribution he made in drawing an interference penalty against the Cowboys with a heads-up scramble and throw.
The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 9. Dallas' Tony Romo ranked third among all NFL quarterbacks for his performance against Seattle, while Washington's John Beck ranked 24th, lower than any player involved in a game featuring an NFC West team.
Alex Cool? Smith leads NFL in comebacks
November, 2, 2011
11/02/11
9:58
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Grading Alex Smith's play during the San Francisco 49ers' 6-1 start has become one of the more fascinating pursuits of this 2011 NFC West season.
Smith, long a divisive subject among 49ers fans, remains one even during the team's best start since 1998.
It's easy to see why.
Smith ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He has led three fourth-quarter comeback victories, all on the road. Yet he ranks only 18th in yards per attempt and 24th in yards per game. And despite occasionally setting a high standard for Total QBR, Smith ranks only 24th in the ESPN statistic measuring how quarterbacks impact their teams' chances for winning.
We've had almost as much fun debating the merits of QBR as we've had debating all things Smith, but any quarterback stat ranking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees above all others, with Tim Tebow dead last, must be onto something.
Let's set aside the stats for a moment. Fourth-quarter comeback victories have long served as the measure of a quarterback's mettle. Pro Football Reference has done outstanding work in defining and validating them. From their work, we're able to see all fourth-quarter comeback victories for the 49ers since 1960. We can also generate a list for all NFL quarterbacks this season -- a list showing Smith atop the NFL with three, all on the road.
The chart breaks down 2011 fourth-quarter comeback victories by quarterback and venue. Smith and the New York Giants lead the league with three. Smith is the only one with three on the road. A quick look at them:
Now, on to the chart ...
Smith, long a divisive subject among 49ers fans, remains one even during the team's best start since 1998.
It's easy to see why.
Smith ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He has led three fourth-quarter comeback victories, all on the road. Yet he ranks only 18th in yards per attempt and 24th in yards per game. And despite occasionally setting a high standard for Total QBR, Smith ranks only 24th in the ESPN statistic measuring how quarterbacks impact their teams' chances for winning.
We've had almost as much fun debating the merits of QBR as we've had debating all things Smith, but any quarterback stat ranking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees above all others, with Tim Tebow dead last, must be onto something.
Let's set aside the stats for a moment. Fourth-quarter comeback victories have long served as the measure of a quarterback's mettle. Pro Football Reference has done outstanding work in defining and validating them. From their work, we're able to see all fourth-quarter comeback victories for the 49ers since 1960. We can also generate a list for all NFL quarterbacks this season -- a list showing Smith atop the NFL with three, all on the road.
The chart breaks down 2011 fourth-quarter comeback victories by quarterback and venue. Smith and the New York Giants lead the league with three. Smith is the only one with three on the road. A quick look at them:
- At Cincinnati, Week 3: With the 49ers trailing 6-3 in the fourth quarter, Smith completes 4 of 8 passes for 48 yards during a 10-play, 72-yard touchdown drive. The 49ers win the game, 13-8.
- At Philadelphia, Week 4: The 49ers won this one in the fourth quarter on the strength of their running game and defense. Smith completed 9 of 9 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns in the third quarter, when the 49ers erased most of a 20-point deficit. He completed 4 of 8 passes for 22 yards, no first downs and a sack in the final 15 minutes.
- At Detroit, Week 6: Smith and the passing game struggled most of the way, but with the game on the line, Smith found Delanie Walker for the go-ahead touchdown on a fourth-down play with 1:56 remaining.
Now, on to the chart ...
Which offenses have improved, regressed
October, 27, 2011
10/27/11
9:26
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The 2011 NFL season is far enough along to make fuller statistical comparisons between this season and last.
The chart shows how NFC West teams have changed from last season in various offensive statistical categories. The ones marked with red text and underlines stood out to me when putting together the chart. A few thoughts:
On to the chart ...
The chart shows how NFC West teams have changed from last season in various offensive statistical categories. The ones marked with red text and underlines stood out to me when putting together the chart. A few thoughts:
- If the 49ers were not winning, we could easily point out how they are averaging fewer yards per game this season while ranking 31st in passing yards per game, 24th in first downs per game, 27th in third-down percentage and 29th in sacks allowed per pass play. These would all be signs of a sickly offense that hasn't progressed sufficiently from the dark days of Mike Singletary. But because the 49ers have limited turnovers, improved their running game and played well enough on defense and special teams to go 5-1, all is well, right? The 49ers are averaging an additional 8.7 points per game. They are much smarter and more efficient on offense.
- The Seattle Seahawks are averaging 35 fewer yards and 3.2 fewer points per game this season. They were not very good on offense last season. Their defense is healthier and better than it was through most of last season, and the offensive line should improve with better health. Robert Gallery looked much better at left guard following his return from groin surgery. Max Unger should be back at center soon. The drop in yards per game is the sixth-largest for an NFL team. Their drop in yards per play (.5) is the fourth-largest from last season.
- The Cardinals are averaging an additional 69.2 yards per game, the fifth-largest jump from last season behind Carolina (158.2), New England (110.7), New Orleans (94.6) and Buffalo (73.6). Their field goal percentage is down 31.8 points from last season, by far the largest drop for any team in the league. Percentages are up overall. Interceptions per pass play are up slightly. No team in the league has improved its punt-return average as much as Arizona, a reflection of Patrick Peterson's addition.
- The St. Louis Rams are scoring 8.8 fewer points per game, the third-largest drop from last season behind Indianapolis (11.3) and Jacksonville (10.1). The team's touchdown percentage in goal-to-go situations has plummeted. Sam Bradford has completed only 1 of 10 passes in goal-to-go situations. Only teammate A.J. Feeley (0-of-3) and Miami's Matt Moore (also 0-of-3) have completed a lower percentage this season. By comparison, Buffalo's Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 7 of 10 such passes with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Tom Brady has nine touchdowns and no interceptions on these throws. Bradford has one touchdown and one pick.
On to the chart ...
The Seattle Seahawks' flair for the dramatic went unmatched around the NFL in Week 5.
Cornerback Brandon Browner's clinching 94-yard interception return for a touchdown against the New York Giants stands atop the list of pivotal plays. The Seahawks' chances for winning went from less than 50 percent to near certainty, as measured by ESPN's win probability calculations reflecting results from thousands of game situations.
I've been breaking out the five most pivotal plays in the NFC West each week. This time, all five came from the Seahawks-Giants game, no shock given how the other games played out. Arizona fell behind Minnesota by a 28-0 score in the first quarter. San Francisco blew out Tampa Bay, 48-3. St. Louis was idle.
Browner's story is an improbable one. He was playing in the CFL before landing in Seattle during the offseason. The Seahawks expected his uncommon height (6-foot-4) would translate well to press coverage. They're not too concerned about Browner drawing occasional penalties, the price for playing receivers so aggressively.
When Seahawks general manager John Schneider mentioned Browner to coach Pete Carroll as a player to check out during the offseason, Carroll initially wasn't sure Browner, 27, was still playing.
"I’d lost track of him," Carroll told reporters Monday. "He’s really a factor. He bothered those guys (Giants receivers). They were pushing and shoving and jawing at him and all that because he wouldn’t let them go, he wouldn’t get off them. That’s a factor you don’t see that often in corners."
Browner weighs about 220 pounds, making him big even by safety standards.
The big play he provided against the Giants set the franchise record for longest interception return. It also stands third on the list of most pivotal plays in the NFL this season, as measured by change in win probability. The top two: New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis' interception off Dallas' Tony Romo in Week 1, and Ryan Fitzpatrick's fourth-down touchdown pass to David Nelson for Buffalo against Oakland in Week 2.
The chart breaks out the five most pivotal plays from the NFC West in Week 5. "WP" stands for win probability as a percentage.
Cornerback Brandon Browner's clinching 94-yard interception return for a touchdown against the New York Giants stands atop the list of pivotal plays. The Seahawks' chances for winning went from less than 50 percent to near certainty, as measured by ESPN's win probability calculations reflecting results from thousands of game situations.
I've been breaking out the five most pivotal plays in the NFC West each week. This time, all five came from the Seahawks-Giants game, no shock given how the other games played out. Arizona fell behind Minnesota by a 28-0 score in the first quarter. San Francisco blew out Tampa Bay, 48-3. St. Louis was idle.
Browner's story is an improbable one. He was playing in the CFL before landing in Seattle during the offseason. The Seahawks expected his uncommon height (6-foot-4) would translate well to press coverage. They're not too concerned about Browner drawing occasional penalties, the price for playing receivers so aggressively.
When Seahawks general manager John Schneider mentioned Browner to coach Pete Carroll as a player to check out during the offseason, Carroll initially wasn't sure Browner, 27, was still playing.
"I’d lost track of him," Carroll told reporters Monday. "He’s really a factor. He bothered those guys (Giants receivers). They were pushing and shoving and jawing at him and all that because he wouldn’t let them go, he wouldn’t get off them. That’s a factor you don’t see that often in corners."
Browner weighs about 220 pounds, making him big even by safety standards.
The big play he provided against the Giants set the franchise record for longest interception return. It also stands third on the list of most pivotal plays in the NFL this season, as measured by change in win probability. The top two: New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis' interception off Dallas' Tony Romo in Week 1, and Ryan Fitzpatrick's fourth-down touchdown pass to David Nelson for Buffalo against Oakland in Week 2.
The chart breaks out the five most pivotal plays from the NFC West in Week 5. "WP" stands for win probability as a percentage.
Brace Hemmelgarn/US PresswireAaron Rodgers accounted for six touchdowns in the Packers' Week 4 win over Denver."That's a no-brainer," he said from the Arizona Cardinals' locker room this week. "Is it even close right now?"
Not really.
Year of the Quarterback
ESPN has dedicated 2011 to examining one of the most crucial positions in all of sports -- the quarterback.
Year of the QB »
Tom Brady remains the biggest threat to Rodgers for the long term, but the Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford has gained ground.
"If the Patriots didn't lose one game, you might say Tom, but Aaron is playing lights out," Fitzgerald said. "And they're kind of doing it under the radar, too. It's as under the radar as you can be as a Super Bowl champion. You don't see them all over ESPN. You just see them going about their business."
Rank 'Em: NFL MVP Candidates
Who tops your ballot for NFL MVP heading into Week 4? Consider the candidates and submit your rankings for NFL MVP honors.
"Ed Reed is as important to that Ravens defense as a good quarterback is to any team," Fitzgerald said. "He has been playing great."
There wasn't quite room for defensive representation on the list this week. The Lions' Johnson joined Eli Manning and Philip Rivers as new from last week, pushing aside Buffalo's Fred Jackson, Dallas' Tony Romo and Houston's Matt Schaub. Jackson has not exceeded 74 yards in his past two games. Schaub's status took a hit with Andre Johnson's injury, and it was tougher finding room for teammate Arian Foster after the Texans' backup running back, Ben Tate, produced so well when Foster was out.
1. AARON RODGERS
Quarterback | Green Bay Packers ... Next Game: 10/9 at ATL ... Last Poll: 1 
Completing 74.2 percent of his passes with eight TDs and one INT against four or fewer pass-rushers, but good luck blitzing him. Rodgers is completing 71.2 percent with four TDs and one INT against five or more rushers. Pick your poison, in other words. Rodgers has been particularly effective working the middle of the field, completing 81.4 percent with 10 TDs, two INTs and league-leading totals in QBR (98.9) and NFL passer rating (146.2) when throwing between the yard-line numbers.
Week 4 vs. DEN
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 38 | 408 | 76.3 | 10.74 | 61 | 4 | 1 | 134.5 |
2. TOM BRADY
Quarterback | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 10/9 vs. NYJ ... Last Poll: 3 
Brady's candidacy should gain momentum as that four-INT game against the Bills becomes a fading memory. Brady leads the NFL in passing yards, YPA (9.53) and TD passes. He's on pace for 6,212 yards and if he were to somehow reach 6,000 for a team with a winning record, it's tough to envision anyone else winning MVP honors. But with passing stats accumulating at an unprecedented rate around the NFL, Brady will not be the only QB with staggering numbers.
Week 4 at OAK
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 30 | 226 | 53.3 | 7.53 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 100.1 |
3. MATTHEW STAFFORD
Quarterback | Detroit Lions ... Next Game: 10/10 vs. CHI ... Last Poll: 4 
The Lions are 4-0 for the first time since 1980, roughly eight years before Stafford was even born. Monte Clark was the head coach, Gary Danielson was the starting QB and Billy Sims was the leading rusher for that Lions team. How much have times changed? Stafford has nearly as many TD passes through four games (11) as Danielson managed through a full season (13). That Lions team finished 9-7, a reminder that the season remains young.
Week 4 at DAL
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 43 | 240 | 48.8 | 5.58 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 71.8 |
4. DREW BREES
Quarterback | New Orleans Saints ... Next Game: 10/9 at CAR ... Last Poll: 2 
Brees has 88 pass attempts and 721 passing yards in his last two games. He'd rank higher on this list, most likely, if the schedule makers hadn't sent the Saints to Green Bay in Week 1. This is the second season in a row Brees has thrown no INTs in the first two games. Then as now, however, the picks are starting to accumulate. He had 10 over a five-game period beginning in Week 3 last season. He has four in Weeks 3-4, but now faces a Carolina team with only two picks this season.
Week 4 at JAC
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 44 | 351 | 70.5 | 7.98 | 59 | 1 | 2 | 82.7 |
5. CALVIN JOHNSON
Wide Receiver | Detroit Lions ... Next Game: 10/10 vs. CHI ... Last Poll: NR 
Let's go back to that 1980 Lions team for a moment. Freddie Scott was that team's leading receiver with 53 receptions for 834 yards and four touchdowns. Johnson has 24 receptions for 321 yards and eight TDs through four games. That puts him on pace to finish the regular season with 96 receptions for 1,284 yards and 32 TDs. "Eight touchdowns in four games? That's unheard of," Fitzgerald marveled.
Week 4 at DAL
| REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 96 | 12.0 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
6. MATT HASSELBECK
Quarterback | Tennessee Titans ... Next Game: 10/9 at PIT ... Last Poll: 7 
After a few rough seasons to end his Seattle tenure, Hasselbeck is flourishing behind an improved line. He's on pace to complete 352 of 528 passes for 4,608 yards with 32 TDs and 12 INTs. He has never passed for more than 3,966 yards or 28 TDs in a season, although he likely would have piled up more TDs with the Seahawks if Shaun Alexander hadn't been a scoring machine for five seasons. The biggest question is whether Hasselbeck can start 16 games in a season for the fourth time in his career and the first time since 2007. Getting Chris Johnson going should help.
Week 4 at CLE
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 20 | 220 | 50.0 | 11.00 | 80 | 3 | 1 | 108.3 |
7. DARREN McFADDEN
Running Back | Oakland Raiders ... Next Game: 10/9 at HOU ... Last Poll: 7 
A disappointing game for the Raiders against New England could not stop McFadden from putting up decent numbers, thanks largely to a 41-yard run. McFadden already has three runs covering at least 40 yards, one shy of his total for last season. He's leading the NFL in rushing by nearly 20 yards per game and is the only player with more than 32 carries to average at least 6 yards per attempt. Upcoming games against Houston, Cleveland, Kansas City and Denver appear manageable.
Week 4 vs. NE
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 41 | 0 | 4 | 48 | 12.0 | 26 | 0 |
8. ELI MANNING
Quarterback | New York Giants ... Next Game: 10/9 vs. SEA ... Last Poll: NR 
Manning is completing a career-best 64 percent of his passes with a career-best 8.5 YPA. His NFL passer rating to this point (105.6) would also be a career best by a wide margin. His sacks are up, but so far Manning is avoiding the INTs that muddied up his stat line last season. He's on pace for 32 TDs with eight INTs. That would be one more TD with 17 fewer INTs, progress by any measure. Manning's improved efficiency has helped the Giants win three in a row despite quite a few injuries, with comeback victories over Philadelphia and Arizona.
Week 4 at ARI
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 40 | 321 | 67.5 | 8.03 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 108.4 |
9. RYAN FITZPATRICK
Quarterback | Buffalo Bills ... Next Game: 10/9 vs. PHI ... Last Poll: 5 
In a season marked by inflated passing numbers, Fitzpatrick's stat line impresses me most for the absence of sacks -- only two in 147 drop backs. A little digging through Pro Football Reference revealed Fitzpatrick and former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jack Trudeau as the only players in the sack era (1982 to present) with at least 145 attempts in one season and no more than two sacks. Fewest sacks taken in a season for players with at least 300 attempts: Dan Marino (six in 606 attempts during the 1988 season) and Mark Rypien (six in 304 attempts in 1990). The leading QBs in this category are notable for their lack of mobility. Decision-making is key to avoiding sacks.
Week 4 at CIN
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 34 | 199 | 58.8 | 5.85 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 75.5 |
10. PHILIP RIVERS
Quarterback | San Diego Chargers ... Next Game: 10/9 at DEN ... Last Poll: NR 
The Chargers are 3-1 and Rivers has survived injuries to key targets in making sure San Diego remains competitive. Rivers is on pace for the first 5,000-yard season of his career, but with a TD-INT ratio of only 5-6, he'll need to start finding the end zone more frequently. The Chargers have yet to score more than 26 points in a game this season. They had two games with at least 38 points at this point last season. Rivers had a 9-4 ratio of TDs to INTs at that time, but the Chargers were only 2-2.
Week 4 vs. MIA
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 31 | 307 | 67.7 | 9.90 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 110.6 |
The Buffalo Bills did not suddenly field a roster packed with perennial Pro Bowl linemen.
Their quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, has nonetheless taken only two sacks in 147 drop backs.
I ran across this improbable stat when researching for the next MVP Watch item. It reinforced the idea that sacks, which are often drive killers, reflect so much more than a line's ability to prevent them.
The list of players with the fewest sacks in a season (minimum 300 pass attempts) features almost exclusively players lacking the raw speed or athletic ability to avoid defenders. Dan Marino, Mark Rypien, Kerry Collins, Joey Harrington and Troy Aikman are the only players in the sack era (since 1982) with at least 300 attempts and fewer than 10 sacks in a season.
The system a team runs, the receivers a team has and the decisions a quarterback makes also play prominently into the totals.
We're seeing that in the NFC West through four games.
The St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford is on pace for 72 sacks, which would tie Randall Cunningham for the second-highest total in a season since sacks became an official stat in 1982. He's learning a new system featuring deeper drop backs and slower-developing routes, all while playing without his most dependable receiver. Bad combination.
San Francisco's Alex Smith (14 sacks), Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson (14) and Arizona's Kevin Kolb (12) rank among the seven most-sacked quarterbacks in the NFL this season. NFC West starters have taken 58 sacks, with Rams backup A.J. Feeley also taking one. Line issues have played larger roles for Smith and Jackson, in my view. Kolb's feel for the pocket hasn't seemed strong enough, possibly a reflection of his inexperience and learning a new offense.
Sacks were down for Smith (three in 36 drop backs) and Jackson (zero in 38, against an Atlanta defense that now has no sacks in its past three games) in Week 4. The Rams are off this week, but the other NFC West teams rank among the 15 teams with at least 10 sacks so far this season. This will be a theme for the division in Week 5.
Their quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, has nonetheless taken only two sacks in 147 drop backs.
I ran across this improbable stat when researching for the next MVP Watch item. It reinforced the idea that sacks, which are often drive killers, reflect so much more than a line's ability to prevent them.
The list of players with the fewest sacks in a season (minimum 300 pass attempts) features almost exclusively players lacking the raw speed or athletic ability to avoid defenders. Dan Marino, Mark Rypien, Kerry Collins, Joey Harrington and Troy Aikman are the only players in the sack era (since 1982) with at least 300 attempts and fewer than 10 sacks in a season.
The system a team runs, the receivers a team has and the decisions a quarterback makes also play prominently into the totals.
We're seeing that in the NFC West through four games.
The St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford is on pace for 72 sacks, which would tie Randall Cunningham for the second-highest total in a season since sacks became an official stat in 1982. He's learning a new system featuring deeper drop backs and slower-developing routes, all while playing without his most dependable receiver. Bad combination.
San Francisco's Alex Smith (14 sacks), Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson (14) and Arizona's Kevin Kolb (12) rank among the seven most-sacked quarterbacks in the NFL this season. NFC West starters have taken 58 sacks, with Rams backup A.J. Feeley also taking one. Line issues have played larger roles for Smith and Jackson, in my view. Kolb's feel for the pocket hasn't seemed strong enough, possibly a reflection of his inexperience and learning a new offense.
Sacks were down for Smith (three in 36 drop backs) and Jackson (zero in 38, against an Atlanta defense that now has no sacks in its past three games) in Week 4. The Rams are off this week, but the other NFC West teams rank among the 15 teams with at least 10 sacks so far this season. This will be a theme for the division in Week 5.
2011 Gridiron Challenge: 49ers vs. Vick
September, 29, 2011
9/29/11
9:56
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Inside the 2011 NFC West Gridiron Challenge after Week 3:
Who is your fantasy sleeper play of the week?
- Leader: Billy Shears, for a second week in a row, this time with 486 points. He's gotten 42 points from Rob Gronkowski over the past two weeks. Basically, teams with Gronkowski are lighting it up.
- High score of the week: Walladaraida, with 188 points. Lineup: Tom Brady (31), Ryan Fitzpatrick (22), LeSean McCoy (19), Darren McFadden (29), Mike Wallace (20), Calvin Johnson (22), Gronkowski (22), Ryan Longwell (11), Oakland defense (12).
- My team: tied for 418th place out of 1,459 entries, 71.2 percentile. Up from 693rd place and 53.3 percentile last week. Sticking with Vernon Davis against Cincinnati worked out well.
- My wife's team: tied for 66th, 95.7 percentile. Down from 17th and 98.7 percentile. She also had Gronkowski.
- Dan Graziano's team: tied for 619th, 60.0 percentile. Down from 595th and 59.6. He's had Antonio Gates in his lineup the last two weeks.
- NFC West matchup to watch: Michael Vick and McCoy against the San Francisco 49ers' defense. The 49ers' run defense has given very little ground this season. Making the Eagles one-dimensional would put additional pressure on Vick, who keeps taking too much punishment. I suspect the 49ers will have a tougher time limiting turnovers in this game, putting their defense in tougher positions.
Who is your fantasy sleeper play of the week?
Dennis Wierzbicki/US PresswireAaron Rodgers has thrown eight touchdown passes and just one interception for the 3-0 Packers.The Green Bay Packers are the undefeated reigning Super Bowl champions. Rodgers is their best player, the Super Bowl MVP.
Year of the Quarterback
ESPN has dedicated 2011 to examining one of the most crucial positions in all of sports -- the quarterback.
Year of the QB »
That is good enough for us after Tom Brady, the MVP Watch leader through Week 2, inexplicably tossed four interceptions in losing to Buffalo. Brady lost ground to Rodgers, who is now on pace for 43 touchdowns with three interceptions, and Drew Brees, whose only defeat came against Rodgers' Packers in a memorable season opener.
Seeing some combination of Rodgers, Brees and Brady atop an MVP list comes almost as a matter of course. Matthew Stafford's inclusion at No. 4 was at least remotely foreseeable given heightened expectations for the Detroit Lions this season. But three names on the list this week -- Buffalo's Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson, plus Tennessee's Matt Hasselbeck -- once would have seemed utterly unfathomable as candidates to anyone outside (and probably inside) their immediate families.
Rank 'Em: NFL MVP Candidates
Who tops your ballot for NFL MVP heading into Week 4? Consider the candidates and submit your rankings for NFL MVP honors.
"It's early, of course, but Hasselbeck's playing like a guy capable of transforming a franchise," AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky observed.
With Hasselbeck, Fitzpatrick, Dallas' Tony Romo and Oakland's Darren McFadden emerging as MVP Watch-worthy, there wasn't room for every qualified candidate.
NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert rightfully asks whether any non-quarterback has had a greater impact on his team than Detroit's Calvin Johnson. Anyone watching the Cowboys knows the same could be said for the incomparable DeMarcus Ware. The way Joe Flacco lit up the St. Louis Rams caught my attention as well.
1. AARON RODGERS
Quarterback | Green Bay Packers ... Next Game: 10/2 vs. DEN ... Last Poll: 2 Rodgers becomes progressively more effective from first to second to third down. Check out his third-down numbers: 22-of-30 passing (73.3 percent) for 254 yards with three TDs, no INTs and a third-down NFL passer rating that ranks second only to Brees' 156.0.
Week 3 at CHI
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 38 | 297 | 73.7 | 7.82 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 111.4 |
2. DREW BREES
Quarterback | New Orleans Saints ... Next Game: 10/2 at JAC ... Last Poll: 3 Brees is completing 78.8 percent of his third-down passes and averaging a league-leading 11.9 YPA on those throws. No other QB averages better than 10.3 YPA on third down. His Saints have scored 104 points in three games against playoff-caliber opponents.
Week 3 vs. HOU
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 44 | 370 | 70.5 | 8.41 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 99.6 |
3. TOM BRADY
Quarterback | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 10/2 at OAK ... Last Poll: 1 Brady leads the NFL in passing yards by nearly 90 per game. He has two more TD passes than any other QB, and his 10.0 YPA stands a full yard better than Romo, who ranks second in that usually telling category.
Week 3 at BUF
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 45 | 387 | 66.7 | 8.60 | 33 | 4 | 4 | 86.1 |
4. MATTHEW STAFFORD
Quarterback | Detroit Lions ... Next Game: 10/2 at DAL ... Last Poll: 4 The overall numbers and on-field results have been sensational for Stafford during the Lions' 3-0 start. Third-down passing is one area for improvement. Stafford has completed only 47.1 percent of his passes on third down with one TD, one INT and an 8.8 QBR that ranks 30th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks.
Week 3 at MIN
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 46 | 378 | 69.6 | 8.22 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 108.8 |
5. RYAN FITZPATRICK
Quarterback | Buffalo Bills ... Next Game: 10/2 at CIN ... Last Poll: NR Fitzpatrick trails only Rodgers in QBR and NFL passer rating on short throws (those traveling no more than 10 yards downfield before completion). Fourteen QBs rank ahead of him in YPA, but none can top his 3-0 record.
Week 3 vs. NE
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 40 | 369 | 67.5 | 9.23 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 92.6 |
6. FRED JACKSON
Running Back | Buffalo Bills ... Next Game: 10/2 at CIN ... Last Poll: 7 
Jackson ranks fourth in rushing yards, but he leads the NFL in YPC among players with more than 21 carries (McFadden is right behind). Jackson's 38-yard reception against the Patriots was key. He has two receptions for at least 20 yards, more than McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew or LeSean McCoy combined.
Week 3 vs. NE
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 87 | 17.4 | 38 | 0 |
7. MATT HASSELBECK
Quarterback | Tennessee Titans ... Next Game: 10/2 at CLE ... Last Poll: NR Few QBs are better than Hasselbeck at dissecting a defense before the snap. The Titans' Chris Johnson hasn't gotten going, but Hasselbeck has used the perceived threat of game-breaking runs to rank second in QBR and third in NFL passer rating on play-action throws. He leads the NFL in both categories from the shotgun formation, which allows for better pre-snap reads.
Week 3 vs. DEN
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 36 | 311 | 75.0 | 8.64 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 119.1 |
8. TONY ROMO
Quarterback | Dallas Cowboys ... Next Game: 10/2 vs. DET ... Last Poll: NR 
Romo knows when to venture from the pocket and knows how to maximize his opportunities once he does reach the perimeter. He has completed 6 of 9 passes for 82 yards and a league-leading 98.5 QBR on these throws (minimum four attempts). Romo has also been among the very best passing between the yard-line numbers, where his 12.7 YPA leads the league by a wide margin (Rodgers 11.5).
Week 3 vs. WAS
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 36 | 255 | 61.1 | 7.08 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 70.9 |
9. DARREN McFADDEN
Running Back | Oakland Raiders ... Next Game: 10/2 vs. NE ... Last Poll: NR McCoy's stat line for Philadelphia arguably makes him as worthy or more worthy for consideration than McFadden or Jackson, but the Raiders are 2-1 and averaging 30.1 point per game. McFadden ranks third in total carries while generating a whopping 1.8 additional YPC over the two players with more attempts, Jones-Drew and Ben Tate.
Week 3 vs. NYJ
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 171 | 9.0 | 70 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 12 | 0 |
10. MATT SCHAUB
Quarterback | Houston Texans ... Next Game: 10/2 vs. PIT ... Last Poll: 8 
Schaub feasted on an easy schedule early and still put up sensational numbers against New Orleans in the Texans' lone defeat. His go-ahead scoring pass with 4:13 remaining should have been enough. Games against Pittsburgh, Oakland, Baltimore and Tennessee over the next month could make it tougher for Schaub to stay on the list.
Week 3 at NO
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 39 | 373 | 56.4 | 9.56 | 62 | 3 | 1 | 103.9 |
QBR ranks: Alex Smith leads NFC West
September, 12, 2011
9/12/11
10:36
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh sounded generous when saying quarterback Alex Smith played "exceptionally well" against Seattle in Week 1.
Smith had passed for only 124 yards without a touchdown, after all, and his offense converted just once in 12 third-down chances.
Harbaugh was not alone in his appreciation for Smith. Our weekly QBR rankings placed Smith 10th among 29 quarterbacks in overall performance Sunday, the highest ranking in the NFC West. That comes as a surprise to me given Kevin Kolb's far superior traditional passing stats for Arizona. Kolb passed for 309 yards and two touchdowns.
QBR reflects how passing, rushing, sacks, fumbles and penalties contribute to winning. Any score higher than 50 is above average. Smith, who rushed for a touchdown and suffered no sacks or turnovers, finished with a 66.2 QBR in Week 1. Scores in that range over the course of a season would generally qualify a quarterback for Pro Bowl consideration.
The best single-game totals are often higher, and that was the case during opening week. Buffalo's Ryan Fitzpatrick (91.2) and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (91.1) led the NFL in QBR through Week 1 games played Sunday.
The chart below breaks down the various QBR components for NFC West quarterbacks, with "EPA" reflecting expected point added in each category.
Kolb ranks third among NFL players in traditional passer rating at 130.0, but his QBR was only 44.0. Kolb took a 7-yard sack on second-and-20 when the game was tied. He fumbled twice, losing one on a second-and-goal situation. QBR also withholds full credit from quarterbacks for yards gained after the catch, a factor on Kolb's scoring throws to Early Doucet and Jeff King.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson ranked last among NFC West quarterbacks thanks largely to the five sacks he took. Pass protection obviously affects sack totals, but QBR assigns quite a bit of blame for them to quarterbacks. Coaches do as well.
Smith had passed for only 124 yards without a touchdown, after all, and his offense converted just once in 12 third-down chances.
Harbaugh was not alone in his appreciation for Smith. Our weekly QBR rankings placed Smith 10th among 29 quarterbacks in overall performance Sunday, the highest ranking in the NFC West. That comes as a surprise to me given Kevin Kolb's far superior traditional passing stats for Arizona. Kolb passed for 309 yards and two touchdowns.
Year of the Quarterback
ESPN has dedicated 2011 to examining one of the most crucial positions in all of sports -- the quarterback.
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The best single-game totals are often higher, and that was the case during opening week. Buffalo's Ryan Fitzpatrick (91.2) and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (91.1) led the NFL in QBR through Week 1 games played Sunday.
The chart below breaks down the various QBR components for NFC West quarterbacks, with "EPA" reflecting expected point added in each category.
Kolb ranks third among NFL players in traditional passer rating at 130.0, but his QBR was only 44.0. Kolb took a 7-yard sack on second-and-20 when the game was tied. He fumbled twice, losing one on a second-and-goal situation. QBR also withholds full credit from quarterbacks for yards gained after the catch, a factor on Kolb's scoring throws to Early Doucet and Jeff King.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson ranked last among NFC West quarterbacks thanks largely to the five sacks he took. Pass protection obviously affects sack totals, but QBR assigns quite a bit of blame for them to quarterbacks. Coaches do as well.
48 NFC West starters since Manning debut
September, 8, 2011
9/08/11
11:02
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Cool note from ESPN Stats & Information: First-year San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh is the last quarterback other than Peyton Manning to start a regular-season game for the Indianapolis Colts.
That will change when Kerry Collins replaces an injured Manning in the Colts' lineup for Week 1.
The first preseason game I covered as an NFL beat reporter featured Manning making his first start against the Seattle Seahawks in the Kingdome. His very first pass found Marvin Harrison for a 49-yard touchdown. Preseason games are generally without much meaning, but could there have been a more fitting beginning for Manning?
For a fuller appreciation of Manning's durability and consistency in starting 227 consecutive games, I went through Pro Football Reference counting how many quarterbacks had started for current NFC West teams since Manning made his regular-season debut. There have been 48. That figure includes 14 for the St. Louis Rams, 13 for the 49ers, 11 for the Arizona Cardinals and 10 for the Seahawks.
A few notes on the 48 players to start for current NFC West teams since 1998:
The NFC West will have two starters new to the division in Week 1: Tarvaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb.
The chart shows start totals by team for the 48. The NFC West changed membership with realignment in 2002. I'm going back to 1998 for the four teams currently in the division.
That will change when Kerry Collins replaces an injured Manning in the Colts' lineup for Week 1.
The first preseason game I covered as an NFL beat reporter featured Manning making his first start against the Seattle Seahawks in the Kingdome. His very first pass found Marvin Harrison for a 49-yard touchdown. Preseason games are generally without much meaning, but could there have been a more fitting beginning for Manning?
For a fuller appreciation of Manning's durability and consistency in starting 227 consecutive games, I went through Pro Football Reference counting how many quarterbacks had started for current NFC West teams since Manning made his regular-season debut. There have been 48. That figure includes 14 for the St. Louis Rams, 13 for the 49ers, 11 for the Arizona Cardinals and 10 for the Seahawks.
A few notes on the 48 players to start for current NFC West teams since 1998:
- There have been two Brocks (Berlin, Huard), two Charlies (Frye, Whitehurst), two named Chris (Chandler, Weinke), two Jeffs (Plummer, Martin), three Johns (Friesz, Navarre, Skelton), one Jon (Kitna), two Matts (Hasselbeck, Leinart), two Shauns (Hill, King), three Steves (Young, Bono, Stenstrom) and two Trents (Dilfer, Green).
- Two, Young and Warren Moon, have been enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame since Manning's streak began.
- Dilfer and Warner started for more than one current NFC West team since Manning's streak began. Warner started 57 games for Arizona and 50 for St. Louis. Dilfer started 12 for Seattle and six for San Francisco.
- Hasselbeck has the most total starts for current NFC West teams with 131, followed by Marc Bulger (95 for St. Louis), Jake Plummer (73 for the Cardinals) and Jeff Garcia (71 for the 49ers).
- Smith -- Alex, not Troy -- owns the most starts among current NFC West players with 50, all for San Francisco.
- Eight of the 48 were one-and-done as starters: Berlin, Scott Covington, Ty Detmer, Glenn Foley, Friesz, Frye, Navarre and Weinke. Nineteen have made at least 10 starts.
The NFC West will have two starters new to the division in Week 1: Tarvaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb.
The chart shows start totals by team for the 48. The NFC West changed membership with realignment in 2002. I'm going back to 1998 for the four teams currently in the division.
The late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.
Quite the opposite, in fact.
"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It’s simply a passing statistic."
I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.
Game situations should count for something, and now they do.
With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.
I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.
Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.
The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.
"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."
Now it can, along with a whole lot more.
The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.
"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn’t game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."
I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:
ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.
"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.
Quite the opposite, in fact.
[+] Enlarge
Al Bello/Getty ImagesAccording to an outline for the rating system, Tom Brady would fall in the "top tier" category.
Al Bello/Getty ImagesAccording to an outline for the rating system, Tom Brady would fall in the "top tier" category.I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.
Game situations should count for something, and now they do.
With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.
I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.
Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.
The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.
"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."
Now it can, along with a whole lot more.
The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.
Year of the Quarterback
ESPN has dedicated 2011 to examining one of the most crucial positions in all of sports -- the quarterback.
Year of the QB »
I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:
- Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
- Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
- Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
- Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
- Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
- Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.
ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.
"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.
Jesse Reynolds, an Arizona Cardinals fan deadlocked in a debate over quarterbacks, turned this way for a resolution.
"I have searched everywhere but haven't been able to find the data that supports (or contradicts) my argument that the Cardinals were one of the most-blitzed teams last year because no one feared our quarterbacks," Jesse wrote to me via Facebook. "Could you help find the numbers? I'm sure other NFC West teams' fans would love to know their numbers, too."
Blitz numbers usually tell us which defenses were more aggressive. But if we flipped our perspective, as Jesse suggested, we could find out which quarterbacks commanded the most respect, at least by this measure. Where to turn? Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information put me in touch with colleague Jason Starrett, who came through with numbers for all 32 teams and for 40 individual quarterbacks.
Thanks to Jason, Jesse is going to win his argument by a knockout.
Opponents blitzed the Cardnials 37.2 percent of the time overall, the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Oakland (39.8), St. Louis (39.4), Chicago (38.4), Carolina (37.5) and Baltimore (37.5) faced blitzes more frequently.
We defined blitzes as plays when defenses rushed five or more defenders.
As the first chart shows, Max Hall, John Skelton, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford -- all rookies playing for losing teams season -- faced blitzes most frequently.
As the second chart shows, five highly experienced quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady -- faced blitzes least frequently.
Hall and Skelton combined to start seven games for Arizona. Teammate Derek Anderson ranked 17th among the 40 players listed in terms of being blitzed most frequently.
In looking at the charts, a few names showed up in surprising places.
The San Francisco 49ers' Smith ranked higher than expected on the list of quarterbacks facing blitzes less frequently. Was he really "commanding respect" the way Brady commanded respect? Of course not. Does he really qualify as a wily veteran such as Delhomme or Hasselbeck? The answer is "no" on that front as well.
Likewise, quarterbacks such as Hill and Henne wouldn't provide a strong deterrent to blitzing, would they? Why would Green Bay's Rodgers face blitzes more frequently than them?
Other variables come into play. Some teams blitz more frequently than others regardless of opponent. A quarterback facing these teams more frequently would see his numbers shift accordingly.
How well an offensive line picks up blitzes could influence how a defense attacks. How well receivers adjust to blitzes could matter, as could the confidence a defensive coordinator has in his secondary during a given week. A quarterback's running ability and ability to read defenses accurately could factor.
Overall, I'd say it's telling to see the Cardinals' Hall and Skelton blitzed so frequently, particularly relative to the numbers for the more experienced Anderson. It's also telling to see some highly experienced quarterbacks blitzed so infrequently by comparison.
"I have searched everywhere but haven't been able to find the data that supports (or contradicts) my argument that the Cardinals were one of the most-blitzed teams last year because no one feared our quarterbacks," Jesse wrote to me via Facebook. "Could you help find the numbers? I'm sure other NFC West teams' fans would love to know their numbers, too."
Blitz numbers usually tell us which defenses were more aggressive. But if we flipped our perspective, as Jesse suggested, we could find out which quarterbacks commanded the most respect, at least by this measure. Where to turn? Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information put me in touch with colleague Jason Starrett, who came through with numbers for all 32 teams and for 40 individual quarterbacks.
Thanks to Jason, Jesse is going to win his argument by a knockout.
Opponents blitzed the Cardnials 37.2 percent of the time overall, the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Oakland (39.8), St. Louis (39.4), Chicago (38.4), Carolina (37.5) and Baltimore (37.5) faced blitzes more frequently.
We defined blitzes as plays when defenses rushed five or more defenders.
As the first chart shows, Max Hall, John Skelton, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford -- all rookies playing for losing teams season -- faced blitzes most frequently.
As the second chart shows, five highly experienced quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady -- faced blitzes least frequently.
Hall and Skelton combined to start seven games for Arizona. Teammate Derek Anderson ranked 17th among the 40 players listed in terms of being blitzed most frequently.
In looking at the charts, a few names showed up in surprising places.
The San Francisco 49ers' Smith ranked higher than expected on the list of quarterbacks facing blitzes less frequently. Was he really "commanding respect" the way Brady commanded respect? Of course not. Does he really qualify as a wily veteran such as Delhomme or Hasselbeck? The answer is "no" on that front as well.
Likewise, quarterbacks such as Hill and Henne wouldn't provide a strong deterrent to blitzing, would they? Why would Green Bay's Rodgers face blitzes more frequently than them?
Other variables come into play. Some teams blitz more frequently than others regardless of opponent. A quarterback facing these teams more frequently would see his numbers shift accordingly.
How well an offensive line picks up blitzes could influence how a defense attacks. How well receivers adjust to blitzes could matter, as could the confidence a defensive coordinator has in his secondary during a given week. A quarterback's running ability and ability to read defenses accurately could factor.
Overall, I'd say it's telling to see the Cardinals' Hall and Skelton blitzed so frequently, particularly relative to the numbers for the more experienced Anderson. It's also telling to see some highly experienced quarterbacks blitzed so infrequently by comparison.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
