NFC West: Shaun Rogers
Mike Sando: There will almost certainly be no trade for Manning. The Colts could not trade Manning without first paying a $28 million bonus to him. Failing to pay that bonus by March 8 would make Manning a free agent when the trading period opened five days later.
My early take on Manning was that the Colts would keep him as long as he were healthy. Sweeping changes in the organization have created the impression Indianapolis anticipates making a clean break at the position. Indianapolis appears increasingly likely to part with Manning unless the sides adjust that bonus to buy time. Manning will not want to do that, most likely, if he knows the Colts are going to draft his replacement, Andrew Luck.
This has become a perfect storm. Manning's injury was worse than anticipated. He missed the entire season, longer than expected. The Colts were worse than anticipated without him, so bad they secured the top pick. Manning's health did not improve as anticipated. One of the brightest college quarterback prospects in years happened to be available in the next draft. And then Manning had that $28 million lever in his contract.
Those are all extreme circumstances. Throw them together and it's tough to envision the Colts keeping Manning. That $28 million price tag is too high amid questions about Manning's health.
We're in a holding pattern until the March 8 bonus date. Perceptions could change by then. If Manning does become a free agent, his health will remain the key variable. It's too early to know where he might land.
I suspect the 49ers will re-sign Alex Smith before or around the March 13 start to free agency. Arizona has until March 17 to pay a $7 million bonus to keep Kevin Kolb. The gap could give the Cardinals a chance to at least consider Manning. Lots of other teams would have interest as well.
Manning's recent comments to Bob Kravitz were illuminating. Manning said he felt as though sweeping changes in the Colts' organization had left people there "walking on eggshells." But Manning is the one with reason to feel that way. He's no longer in control of his immediate future.
Dan from Portland asks why few people seem to be connecting Manning to the Seattle Seahawks. He thinks Kolb should get another chance in Arizona. He thinks Alex Smith should be the starter in San Francisco. And he sees Sam Bradford as the quarterback in St. Louis. Doesn't that leave Seattle as the most logical destination among NFC West teams?
Mike Sando: Yeah, I've wondered why Arizona has been mentioned in so many of the reports. It is possible people close to Manning are pushing Arizona as a possible destination because, one, Manning might see that as an appealing place to land and, two, the Cardinals do have that $7 million decision to make on Kolb. I see no reason for the Cardinals to push the Manning angle in the news, unless they hope to pressure Kolb into an adjusted contract.
I agree with you on Seattle making the most sense from a quarterback-need perspective. The fit from a system standpoint would take some adjusting. I also wonder how much the Seahawks would want to commit financially to such a high-profile player with clear health concerns. Would they see this as a risky two-year rental, or as a chance to become a championship contender quickly?
Manning's health is the No. 1 variable. If he hits the market in good physical condition, lots of teams will be interested.
Jeremiah from Germany thinks 49ers fans should be clamoring for Dwayne Bowe, not Marques Colston, in free agency this offseason.
Mike Sando: It's tough for me to envision the Chiefs letting Bowe get away. Smart teams re-sign their best players, especially when those players are young. I would also favor Bowe over Colston, all else being equal. But I also think the 49ers would be more likely to address the position in the draft and with a lower-priced free agent. That is how they believe in putting their team together. They have been averse to overpaying for players other teams have let hit the market. That was the case last offseason when the 49ers showed no interest in Nnamdi Asomugha and other top free agents.
Scott from Epsom, N.H., thinks I've failed to pay the New York Giants their proper respects and have instead sought to diminish their victory by branding them as concussion-inflicting cheaters. "Grow up," he writes. "It's a game."
Mike Sando: The stories about the Giants trying to inflict a concussion upon Kyle Williams originated in the Newark Star-Ledger and New York Magazine. I simply linked to them, which was pretty much a no-brainer from an NFC West perspective. These were direct quotes from Giants players speaking on the record in well-established publications.
On the game itself, the 49ers blew a prime opportunity to reach the Super Bowl, giving up 10 points on uncharacteristic special-teams turnovers. That was my focus from a 49ers/NFC West standpoint coming out of the game. There's no shortage of favorable Giants coverage out there. I just thought the 49ers did more to lose the game than their opponent did to win it. This being the NFC West blog, the 49ers were going to be my focus.
Adam from El Paso noticed that the last quarterbacks drafted in first rounds tend to struggle. He pointed to Patrick Ramsey (2002), Rex Grossman (2003), J.P. Losman (2004), Jason Campbell (2005), Jay Cutler (2006) and Brady Quinn (2007) as examples. He pointed to Joe Flacco (2008) and possibly Cutler as exceptions, but wondered if there was something to it.
Mike Sando: Interesting observation. There is nothing dooming these players. Overall, though, the quarterbacks with the most obvious skills tend to get drafted earlier. If you've reached the late first round and are thinking about a quarterback, you're probably gambling more than teams selecting them earlier. Perhaps you're more apt to be reaching for a prospect because you need one and fear missing out.
Joe from Phoenix sees Jeff Fisher delivering credible coordinators and asks whether we should expect him to land top free agents as well. He points to Cortland Finnegan as a possibility and wants to know if there are others with ties to Fisher or the current Rams coordinators.
Mike Sando: Yes, we should expect the Rams to have interest in free-agent players Fisher and his coordinators coached in the past. Finnegan is one of them.
Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer spent the last six seasons with New York, but the Jets do not have many potential offensive free agents of note. The list includes quarterback Mark Brunell, receiver Plaxico Burress, tight end Matthew Mulligan, quarterback Kevin O'Connell, running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tackle Robert Turner.
Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams spent the last three seasons with New Orleans.
The Saints' potential defensive free agents include linebacker Jonathan Casillas, defensive end Jeff Charleston, linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, linebacker Ramon Humber, defensive end Turk McBride, cornerback Tracy Porter, defensive tackle Shaun Rogers and cornerback Leigh Torrance.
Williams was also with 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers, another potential free agent, years ago in Washington.
Fisher's roots as head coach in Tennessee provide additional connections. The Titans' potential free agents include snapper Ken Amato, safety Jordan Babineaux, linebacker Patrick Bailey, defensive end Dave Ball, Finnegan, safety Michael Griffin, running back Ahmard Hall, receiver Lavelle Hawkins, defensive end William Hayes, safety Chris Hope, defensive end/tackle Jason Jones, tackle Mike Otto, guard Jake Scott, linebacker Tim Shaw and safety Anthony Smith.
NFC West penalty watch: Personal fouls
» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
Falling
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2. 49ers guards. Consider it a bad sign for David Baas and Chilo Rachal when the head coach expressed serious concerns about the offensive line, all while praising both tackles and the center. Lineup changes could be a possibility. The remedial nature of the 49ers' offense has too often been used to suggest the team lacks confidence in quarterback Shaun Hill. It's clear offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye lacks confidence in the offensive line's ability to pass protect. The thought of Hill dropping back in a spread passing attack might not appeal to Raye under any circumstances. It certainly doesn't appeal under the current ones.
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Rising
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Mailbag: Debating defense in the NFC West
The Dude in Brooklyn writes: Sando, I didn't realize you were so expert with faint praise. Your statement that the 49ers have the best defense in the division couldn't have been less enthusiastic. "Based on what we have seen," "I know they played some weak offenses," "there was a sense they were improved" ... that is not the language of a convinced man.
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Fair enough. But why, Mike Sando? There is both an easy positive and negative argument for why the 49ers' defense is the best. They were statistically superior in nearly every category and did so with a crappy offense that constantly left them in bad position with three-and-outs and turnovers. Their per-play stats are top-10 or just below.
Over the course of the season, they played all the same teams except for two, so the schedule argument is bogus. If anything, the Cards should be demoted for not having to play their own offense when the rest of the division had to. The squad has a good mix of experience and youth and includes five former or current Pro Bowlers and several players that are developing quite well.
As for the negative argument ... there's almost nothing good to say about the Rams or Seahawks. I'll leave the Rams alone because they're rebuilding. Yes, the Seahawks had major injuries on offense, but the defense was as healthy as the others in the division. It was bad because it was bad. Are the additions going to be enough? How important are the personnel losses? That defense has more questions than answers and did nothing well last year.
As for the Cards, their defense was 19th despite the advantage of a fourth-ranked offense. Some say they have a good secondary, but they couldn't defend the pass all year. Is a nickel back [Bryant McFadden] and a third-rounder [Rashad Johnson] going to solve their pass-defense woes? For those who think the Cards have a good secondary, I'll leave Sando with a homework assignment that will disabuse you of your rose-tinted glasses: What was the last team to allow more passing TD's than the 2008 Cards?
Mike Sando: The Cardinals allowed 36 passing touchdowns last season. I suspect the 1981 Colts were the last team to allow more (37) in a season. Not good.
To address your broader point, we might be answering different questions. The evidence you cited was from last season. Which NFC West team had the best defense last season? The 49ers, of course, by almost any measure. Which NFC West team will have the best defense in 2009? The 49ers, probably.
Back to the Cardinals. When they were bad, they were really bad. When they were good, they were really good. The 49ers were more consistent defensively. Arizona allowed six touchdown passes to Brett Favre in a single game. Horrible. But when the Cardinals needed to control Matt Ryan and Jake Delhomme in the playoffs, they did it well. That means more than how the 49ers fared in a meaningless game against Buffalo.
The Cardinals can play with a violence and ferocity that is unmatched in the division. That is how they recovered a league-high 17 fumbles last season. The 49ers recovered six. The fumble-forcing hit Darnell Dockett put on Zak Keasey last season comes to mind. The knockout shot Adrian Wilson put on Trent Edwards was another example. Patrick Willis is the only other player in the division to inflict that type of punishment (the hit on Jets receiver Brad Smith last season comes to mind).
The problem in this division is that none of the teams can count on having a strong pass rush. The 49ers could develop one if Manny Lawson and Parys Haralson flourish in the
3-4. The Seahawks could rediscover one if Patrick Kerney gets healthy and some of their recent draft choices develop, etc. But can any team in this division truly count on its pass rush?
Mailbag: Can Browns help 49ers improve?
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
Bronson from Montana writes: I've heard the Browns say that they are up to trading pretty much everyone on their roster. Considering that Shaun Rogers wants out, what do you think about the Niners making a move for him? I think this would be a big upgrade for our 3-4 scheme that will actually be a 3-4. Didn't they give up a middle to late rounds pick for him last offseason? Thanks again Mike!!
Mike Sando: Rogers wanted out of Detroit and now he wants out of Cleveland. I'm sensing a pattern here. We can pick apart the Lions in a lot of ways, but their head coach at the time, Rod Marinelli, has been one of the top defensive line coaches in the league for years. Red flags should go up when a top defensive line coach trades a talented defensive lineman.
If I were the 49ers, I wouldn't give up much for a 30-year-old defensive lineman with a history of weight problems, injuries and wanting to be traded.
Mr. Pickles from parts unknown writes: Hey Sando, what are your thoughts on the 49ers going after Braylon Edwards? He'd give them a receiver with true #1 potential, and would have to help spread the field more for Frank Gore. Do the 49ers have the pieces to make it happen, and if you're the GM, do you go for it?
Mike Sando: Can the Browns afford to move Edwards now that Donte Stallworth is looking at a potential prison sentence? Is it a good sign for the 49ers when multiple fans think raiding the 4-12 Browns can help upgrade the roster?
In all seriousness, Edwards would upgrade the 49ers' offense, no question. Seems to me the 49ers are emphasizing building through the draft, not trading away picks.
Ben from Chicago writes: Great piece on the Cards. I'm just as frustrated that besides Warner, they've made NO other moves in FA so far (besides to re-sign some minor players like their punter). What about Bryant McFadden? Did they offer him a contract? This complacency is so frustrating!
Mike Sando: Inactivity can also be good policy. Look at the "active" teams last offseason. Some of them fired coaches. The Browns were aggressive in adding Shaun Rogers and acting as though they were one or two players away from contending. Doesn't work that way.
The Jets were aggressive. Look where it got them. The Dolphins signed lots of players in unrestricted free agency, but most of them weren't the reason why Miami bounced back. The Raiders were over-the-top aggressive. No payoff.
The Steelers have won two of the last four Super Bowls without being aggressive in free agency. Lots of bad money gets spent this time of year. Something to keep in mind.
As for McFadden, I would expect something to get done with him sooner rather than later. The cornerback market has already moved, for the most part.
Paco from Hermosillo, Mexico writes: Hello Sando, thanks for all your hard work these days, really appreciate, I don't like fans going into panic mood about this whole thing. You mention some issues that have happened, but get real, most of it was expected. The only unexpected thing was the Kurt Warner situation and it was resolved.
But, for instance, they knew that Haley was going to the Chiefs during Super Bowl week. Clancy was getting fired at the end of the season if the Cardinals didn't win the Super Bowl. His defense had to be improved. As for Rutledge, he was getting fired regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl.
The Boldin saga was expected to happen, and we don't know it's final, but trust me, it wasn't a surprise to anybody in the organization. Same with Edgerrin James. As for Karlos Dansby, he is getting his long term deal. They just prevented him from testing the free agent market, but his salary as a franshise player is too high, so they will sign him long term.
As for Antonio Smith, the Texans overpaid for this guy. We have his replacement ready in Calais Campbell. I would rather let other teams overpay for players and take a Steelers-like approach in free agency. About the assistant coaches, that has already been answered by the team, so it's not a big deal.
Bottom line, this is no time to panic. Whisenhunt, Graves and Michael Bidwill, are building something for the long run. Let's have some faith on them. After what they have done in their first two years together, they deserve that.
Mike Sando: Yes, the Cardinals could have expected to have issues with Haley, Pendergast, Smith, Boldin and James. It has been the manner in which those issues have unfolded that has deviated from how the Cardinals would have drawn it up. As I wrote in a previous mailbag, "I do think Ken Whisenhunt is the right coach. It's not time to panic by any means. But, like I said, the offseason has not gone to script for Arizona to this point."
Joshua from Fontana, Calif., writes: Wouldn't taking the best athletes in Aaron Curry or Michael Crabtree (Curry if lions pass) be better for the Rams? How could they pass on that talent? These guys will be stars.
Mike Sando: I agree with your thinking, but I also understand the Rams' needs on the offensive line. They've invested so much in Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. Rebuilding the offensive line has to be a top priority and probably the top priority. Adding Jason Brown was a start. The situation at tackle puts pressure on the Rams to find a surefire starter at the position in this draft.
Doug from Yelm, Wash., writes: Will the Seahawks still run the West Coast Offense since Hasselbeck knows the system and Knapp is SF grown? What type of defense will the Seahawks run? All three starting linebackers are secure for next season, but with the bigger tackles is there a chance we'll see the 3-4?
Mike Sando: Greg Knapp does have a West Coast background. He will incorporate West Coast concepts without running a pure West Coast offense in the Mike Holmgren mold. Knapp is working extensively with Matt Hasselbeck to adapt terminology in ways that reduce confusion and speed the transition.
The Seahawks do not have the size at linebacker or defensive end to run a straight 3-4 system, in my view.
Haynesworth questions mercifully cease
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
We can now say definitively what I've been telling hopeful NFC West fans for weeks: Your team probably wasn't going to make a play for Albert Haynesworth.
The Redskins signed Hayesworth to a deal that makes it virtually impossible for the defensive tackle to exceed expectations. Haynesworth will be looking to do what nine of the highest-paid defensive tackles failed to do last season: win a playoff game.
Most of the highest-paid defensive tackles signed new or renegotiated contracts over the last two offseasons. The nine leaders in average annual salary:
- Tommie Harris, Bears. Five sacks for 9-7 Bears.
- Shaun Rogers, Browns. Dominated much of season before fading for 4-12 Browns.
- Tommy Kelly, Raiders. Started every game for 5-11 Raiders.
- Kris Jenkins, Jets. Dominated early, wore down late for 9-7 Jets.
- Cory Redding, Lions. Started 13 games for 0-16 Lions.
- Kevin Williams, Vikings. Had 8.5 sacks for division-winning Vikings.
- Marcus Stroud, Bills. Started every game for 7-9 Bills.
- Pat Williams, Vikings. Started 14 games for division-winning Vikings.
- John Henderson, Jaguars. Started 14 games for 5-11 Jaguars.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
