NFC West: Tim Shaw
Filippo from Windsor, Canada, thinks Alex Smith, not Kyle Williams, was the 49ers' biggest problem in the NFC Championship Game. He wondered whether the team could trade for Peyton Manning this offseason.
Mike Sando: There will almost certainly be no trade for Manning. The Colts could not trade Manning without first paying a $28 million bonus to him. Failing to pay that bonus by March 8 would make Manning a free agent when the trading period opened five days later.
My early take on Manning was that the Colts would keep him as long as he were healthy. Sweeping changes in the organization have created the impression Indianapolis anticipates making a clean break at the position. Indianapolis appears increasingly likely to part with Manning unless the sides adjust that bonus to buy time. Manning will not want to do that, most likely, if he knows the Colts are going to draft his replacement, Andrew Luck.
This has become a perfect storm. Manning's injury was worse than anticipated. He missed the entire season, longer than expected. The Colts were worse than anticipated without him, so bad they secured the top pick. Manning's health did not improve as anticipated. One of the brightest college quarterback prospects in years happened to be available in the next draft. And then Manning had that $28 million lever in his contract.
Those are all extreme circumstances. Throw them together and it's tough to envision the Colts keeping Manning. That $28 million price tag is too high amid questions about Manning's health.
We're in a holding pattern until the March 8 bonus date. Perceptions could change by then. If Manning does become a free agent, his health will remain the key variable. It's too early to know where he might land.
I suspect the 49ers will re-sign Alex Smith before or around the March 13 start to free agency. Arizona has until March 17 to pay a $7 million bonus to keep Kevin Kolb. The gap could give the Cardinals a chance to at least consider Manning. Lots of other teams would have interest as well.
Manning's recent comments to Bob Kravitz were illuminating. Manning said he felt as though sweeping changes in the Colts' organization had left people there "walking on eggshells." But Manning is the one with reason to feel that way. He's no longer in control of his immediate future.
Dan from Portland asks why few people seem to be connecting Manning to the Seattle Seahawks. He thinks Kolb should get another chance in Arizona. He thinks Alex Smith should be the starter in San Francisco. And he sees Sam Bradford as the quarterback in St. Louis. Doesn't that leave Seattle as the most logical destination among NFC West teams?
Mike Sando: Yeah, I've wondered why Arizona has been mentioned in so many of the reports. It is possible people close to Manning are pushing Arizona as a possible destination because, one, Manning might see that as an appealing place to land and, two, the Cardinals do have that $7 million decision to make on Kolb. I see no reason for the Cardinals to push the Manning angle in the news, unless they hope to pressure Kolb into an adjusted contract.
I agree with you on Seattle making the most sense from a quarterback-need perspective. The fit from a system standpoint would take some adjusting. I also wonder how much the Seahawks would want to commit financially to such a high-profile player with clear health concerns. Would they see this as a risky two-year rental, or as a chance to become a championship contender quickly?
Manning's health is the No. 1 variable. If he hits the market in good physical condition, lots of teams will be interested.
Jeremiah from Germany thinks 49ers fans should be clamoring for Dwayne Bowe, not Marques Colston, in free agency this offseason.
Mike Sando: It's tough for me to envision the Chiefs letting Bowe get away. Smart teams re-sign their best players, especially when those players are young. I would also favor Bowe over Colston, all else being equal. But I also think the 49ers would be more likely to address the position in the draft and with a lower-priced free agent. That is how they believe in putting their team together. They have been averse to overpaying for players other teams have let hit the market. That was the case last offseason when the 49ers showed no interest in Nnamdi Asomugha and other top free agents.
Scott from Epsom, N.H., thinks I've failed to pay the New York Giants their proper respects and have instead sought to diminish their victory by branding them as concussion-inflicting cheaters. "Grow up," he writes. "It's a game."
Mike Sando: The stories about the Giants trying to inflict a concussion upon Kyle Williams originated in the Newark Star-Ledger and New York Magazine. I simply linked to them, which was pretty much a no-brainer from an NFC West perspective. These were direct quotes from Giants players speaking on the record in well-established publications.
On the game itself, the 49ers blew a prime opportunity to reach the Super Bowl, giving up 10 points on uncharacteristic special-teams turnovers. That was my focus from a 49ers/NFC West standpoint coming out of the game. There's no shortage of favorable Giants coverage out there. I just thought the 49ers did more to lose the game than their opponent did to win it. This being the NFC West blog, the 49ers were going to be my focus.
Adam from El Paso noticed that the last quarterbacks drafted in first rounds tend to struggle. He pointed to Patrick Ramsey (2002), Rex Grossman (2003), J.P. Losman (2004), Jason Campbell (2005), Jay Cutler (2006) and Brady Quinn (2007) as examples. He pointed to Joe Flacco (2008) and possibly Cutler as exceptions, but wondered if there was something to it.
Mike Sando: Interesting observation. There is nothing dooming these players. Overall, though, the quarterbacks with the most obvious skills tend to get drafted earlier. If you've reached the late first round and are thinking about a quarterback, you're probably gambling more than teams selecting them earlier. Perhaps you're more apt to be reaching for a prospect because you need one and fear missing out.
Joe from Phoenix sees Jeff Fisher delivering credible coordinators and asks whether we should expect him to land top free agents as well. He points to Cortland Finnegan as a possibility and wants to know if there are others with ties to Fisher or the current Rams coordinators.
Mike Sando: Yes, we should expect the Rams to have interest in free-agent players Fisher and his coordinators coached in the past. Finnegan is one of them.
Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer spent the last six seasons with New York, but the Jets do not have many potential offensive free agents of note. The list includes quarterback Mark Brunell, receiver Plaxico Burress, tight end Matthew Mulligan, quarterback Kevin O'Connell, running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tackle Robert Turner.
Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams spent the last three seasons with New Orleans.
The Saints' potential defensive free agents include linebacker Jonathan Casillas, defensive end Jeff Charleston, linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, linebacker Ramon Humber, defensive end Turk McBride, cornerback Tracy Porter, defensive tackle Shaun Rogers and cornerback Leigh Torrance.
Williams was also with 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers, another potential free agent, years ago in Washington.
Fisher's roots as head coach in Tennessee provide additional connections. The Titans' potential free agents include snapper Ken Amato, safety Jordan Babineaux, linebacker Patrick Bailey, defensive end Dave Ball, Finnegan, safety Michael Griffin, running back Ahmard Hall, receiver Lavelle Hawkins, defensive end William Hayes, safety Chris Hope, defensive end/tackle Jason Jones, tackle Mike Otto, guard Jake Scott, linebacker Tim Shaw and safety Anthony Smith.
Mike Sando: There will almost certainly be no trade for Manning. The Colts could not trade Manning without first paying a $28 million bonus to him. Failing to pay that bonus by March 8 would make Manning a free agent when the trading period opened five days later.
My early take on Manning was that the Colts would keep him as long as he were healthy. Sweeping changes in the organization have created the impression Indianapolis anticipates making a clean break at the position. Indianapolis appears increasingly likely to part with Manning unless the sides adjust that bonus to buy time. Manning will not want to do that, most likely, if he knows the Colts are going to draft his replacement, Andrew Luck.
This has become a perfect storm. Manning's injury was worse than anticipated. He missed the entire season, longer than expected. The Colts were worse than anticipated without him, so bad they secured the top pick. Manning's health did not improve as anticipated. One of the brightest college quarterback prospects in years happened to be available in the next draft. And then Manning had that $28 million lever in his contract.
Those are all extreme circumstances. Throw them together and it's tough to envision the Colts keeping Manning. That $28 million price tag is too high amid questions about Manning's health.
We're in a holding pattern until the March 8 bonus date. Perceptions could change by then. If Manning does become a free agent, his health will remain the key variable. It's too early to know where he might land.
I suspect the 49ers will re-sign Alex Smith before or around the March 13 start to free agency. Arizona has until March 17 to pay a $7 million bonus to keep Kevin Kolb. The gap could give the Cardinals a chance to at least consider Manning. Lots of other teams would have interest as well.
Manning's recent comments to Bob Kravitz were illuminating. Manning said he felt as though sweeping changes in the Colts' organization had left people there "walking on eggshells." But Manning is the one with reason to feel that way. He's no longer in control of his immediate future.
Dan from Portland asks why few people seem to be connecting Manning to the Seattle Seahawks. He thinks Kolb should get another chance in Arizona. He thinks Alex Smith should be the starter in San Francisco. And he sees Sam Bradford as the quarterback in St. Louis. Doesn't that leave Seattle as the most logical destination among NFC West teams?
Mike Sando: Yeah, I've wondered why Arizona has been mentioned in so many of the reports. It is possible people close to Manning are pushing Arizona as a possible destination because, one, Manning might see that as an appealing place to land and, two, the Cardinals do have that $7 million decision to make on Kolb. I see no reason for the Cardinals to push the Manning angle in the news, unless they hope to pressure Kolb into an adjusted contract.
I agree with you on Seattle making the most sense from a quarterback-need perspective. The fit from a system standpoint would take some adjusting. I also wonder how much the Seahawks would want to commit financially to such a high-profile player with clear health concerns. Would they see this as a risky two-year rental, or as a chance to become a championship contender quickly?
Manning's health is the No. 1 variable. If he hits the market in good physical condition, lots of teams will be interested.
Jeremiah from Germany thinks 49ers fans should be clamoring for Dwayne Bowe, not Marques Colston, in free agency this offseason.
Mike Sando: It's tough for me to envision the Chiefs letting Bowe get away. Smart teams re-sign their best players, especially when those players are young. I would also favor Bowe over Colston, all else being equal. But I also think the 49ers would be more likely to address the position in the draft and with a lower-priced free agent. That is how they believe in putting their team together. They have been averse to overpaying for players other teams have let hit the market. That was the case last offseason when the 49ers showed no interest in Nnamdi Asomugha and other top free agents.
Scott from Epsom, N.H., thinks I've failed to pay the New York Giants their proper respects and have instead sought to diminish their victory by branding them as concussion-inflicting cheaters. "Grow up," he writes. "It's a game."
Mike Sando: The stories about the Giants trying to inflict a concussion upon Kyle Williams originated in the Newark Star-Ledger and New York Magazine. I simply linked to them, which was pretty much a no-brainer from an NFC West perspective. These were direct quotes from Giants players speaking on the record in well-established publications.
On the game itself, the 49ers blew a prime opportunity to reach the Super Bowl, giving up 10 points on uncharacteristic special-teams turnovers. That was my focus from a 49ers/NFC West standpoint coming out of the game. There's no shortage of favorable Giants coverage out there. I just thought the 49ers did more to lose the game than their opponent did to win it. This being the NFC West blog, the 49ers were going to be my focus.
Adam from El Paso noticed that the last quarterbacks drafted in first rounds tend to struggle. He pointed to Patrick Ramsey (2002), Rex Grossman (2003), J.P. Losman (2004), Jason Campbell (2005), Jay Cutler (2006) and Brady Quinn (2007) as examples. He pointed to Joe Flacco (2008) and possibly Cutler as exceptions, but wondered if there was something to it.
Mike Sando: Interesting observation. There is nothing dooming these players. Overall, though, the quarterbacks with the most obvious skills tend to get drafted earlier. If you've reached the late first round and are thinking about a quarterback, you're probably gambling more than teams selecting them earlier. Perhaps you're more apt to be reaching for a prospect because you need one and fear missing out.
Joe from Phoenix sees Jeff Fisher delivering credible coordinators and asks whether we should expect him to land top free agents as well. He points to Cortland Finnegan as a possibility and wants to know if there are others with ties to Fisher or the current Rams coordinators.
Mike Sando: Yes, we should expect the Rams to have interest in free-agent players Fisher and his coordinators coached in the past. Finnegan is one of them.
Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer spent the last six seasons with New York, but the Jets do not have many potential offensive free agents of note. The list includes quarterback Mark Brunell, receiver Plaxico Burress, tight end Matthew Mulligan, quarterback Kevin O'Connell, running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tackle Robert Turner.
Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams spent the last three seasons with New Orleans.
The Saints' potential defensive free agents include linebacker Jonathan Casillas, defensive end Jeff Charleston, linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, linebacker Ramon Humber, defensive end Turk McBride, cornerback Tracy Porter, defensive tackle Shaun Rogers and cornerback Leigh Torrance.
Williams was also with 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers, another potential free agent, years ago in Washington.
Fisher's roots as head coach in Tennessee provide additional connections. The Titans' potential free agents include snapper Ken Amato, safety Jordan Babineaux, linebacker Patrick Bailey, defensive end Dave Ball, Finnegan, safety Michael Griffin, running back Ahmard Hall, receiver Lavelle Hawkins, defensive end William Hayes, safety Chris Hope, defensive end/tackle Jason Jones, tackle Mike Otto, guard Jake Scott, linebacker Tim Shaw and safety Anthony Smith.
2011 NFL Draft: Value of 25th overall pick
March, 14, 2011
3/14/11
1:15
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
This is the final item in a series revisiting relatively recent NFL trades involving first-round draft choices in the slots NFC West teams occupy this year.
Beating the St. Louis Rams in Week 17 and the New Orleans Saints in the wild-card round cost Seattle 17 spots of draft order. The difference between the eighth and 25th picks -- 680 points on the draft-value chart -- equates to the 27th choice.
The Seahawks' late-season success and Matt Hasselbeck's role in it also surely complicated efforts to re-sign the quarterback.
The bottom line: Seattle's quarterback needs are in flux as the draft approaches, and the team is picking late enough to defy easy projections.
The Seahawks have enough needs throughout their roster to consider trading the 25th overall choice, something NFL teams have done four times in the last six drafts.
With that in mind, here's a look at what the 25th overall choice has brought in some previous trades involving only draft choices (player trades are prohibited during the lockout) ...
The pick: 25th overall
Held by: Seattle Seahawks
Most recent trade involving only picks: 2008. The Seahawks were in the middle of this one. They sent the 25th pick to Dallas, which took cornerback Mike Jenkins, in return for the 28th (Lawrence Jackson), 163rd (Owen Schmitt) and 235th (Brandon Coutu) choices. The trade-value chart says the Seahawks overpaid by about 30 points, or the equivalent of a pick late in the fifth round. Jenkins has one Pro Bowl on his resume. Jackson, Schmitt and Coutu are long gone from Seattle.
The price of moving up: In 2007, the New York Jets sent the 25th, 59th and 164th choices to the Carolina Panthers for the 14th pick, which the Jets used for Darrelle Revis. The trade-value chart says the Jets paid 1,056.8 points for picks worth 1,116 points. The difference equates to a pick late in the fourth round. Carolina selected linebacker Jon Beason (25th), offensive lineman Ryan Kalil (59th) and linebacker Tim Shaw (164th).
Sliding out of the round. Teams moved back from the 25th spot twice in the six most recent NFL drafts.
The chart shows which picks changed hands in those four recent trades involving the 25th overall choice.
Beating the St. Louis Rams in Week 17 and the New Orleans Saints in the wild-card round cost Seattle 17 spots of draft order. The difference between the eighth and 25th picks -- 680 points on the draft-value chart -- equates to the 27th choice.
The Seahawks' late-season success and Matt Hasselbeck's role in it also surely complicated efforts to re-sign the quarterback.
The bottom line: Seattle's quarterback needs are in flux as the draft approaches, and the team is picking late enough to defy easy projections.
The Seahawks have enough needs throughout their roster to consider trading the 25th overall choice, something NFL teams have done four times in the last six drafts.
With that in mind, here's a look at what the 25th overall choice has brought in some previous trades involving only draft choices (player trades are prohibited during the lockout) ...
The pick: 25th overall
Held by: Seattle Seahawks
Most recent trade involving only picks: 2008. The Seahawks were in the middle of this one. They sent the 25th pick to Dallas, which took cornerback Mike Jenkins, in return for the 28th (Lawrence Jackson), 163rd (Owen Schmitt) and 235th (Brandon Coutu) choices. The trade-value chart says the Seahawks overpaid by about 30 points, or the equivalent of a pick late in the fifth round. Jenkins has one Pro Bowl on his resume. Jackson, Schmitt and Coutu are long gone from Seattle.
The price of moving up: In 2007, the New York Jets sent the 25th, 59th and 164th choices to the Carolina Panthers for the 14th pick, which the Jets used for Darrelle Revis. The trade-value chart says the Jets paid 1,056.8 points for picks worth 1,116 points. The difference equates to a pick late in the fourth round. Carolina selected linebacker Jon Beason (25th), offensive lineman Ryan Kalil (59th) and linebacker Tim Shaw (164th).
Sliding out of the round. Teams moved back from the 25th spot twice in the six most recent NFL drafts.
- In 2006, the New York Giants sent the 25th choice to Pittsburgh, which used the selection for receiver Santonio Holmes. The Giants received the 32nd (Mathias Kiwanuka), 96th (Gerris Wilkinson) and 129th (Guy Whimper) choices. The chart says the Steelers overpaid by 29 points, or a late fifth-round pick.
- In 2005, the Washington Redskins wanted quarterback Jason Campbell. The Denver Broncos were willing to accommodate them. Washington acquired the 25th pick, used for Campbell, for the 76th (Karl Paymah) pick, plus 2006 first- and fourth-round choices. San Francisco later acquired that 2006 first-rounder, using it for Manny Lawson.
The chart shows which picks changed hands in those four recent trades involving the 25th overall choice.
2011 NFL draft: Value of 14th overall pick
March, 14, 2011
3/14/11
12:00
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
This is the third in a series of items revisiting relatively recent NFL trades involving first-round draft choices in the slots NFC West teams occupy this year.
The St. Louis Rams must hope the 14th overall choice treats them better than the 13th and 15th choices treated them recently.
Defensive tackle Adam Carriker was the choice at No. 13 in 2007. Cornerback Tye Hill was the choice at No. 15 a year earlier. Neither lasted long with the team.
This year, Rams fans will be looking to see if one of the top receivers or defensive linemen falls their way at No. 14. As for trading the pick? I'll break out what the 14th overall choice has brought in some previous trades involving only draft choices.
The pick: 14th overall
Held by: St. Louis Rams
Most recent trade involving only picks: 2007. The New York Jets jumped 11 spots to draft cornerback Darrelle Revis at No. 14. This trade helps show what Seattle might have to pay for swapping first-round choices with the Rams this year. In 2007, the Jets sent the 25th, 59th and 164th choices to Carolina for the 14th and 191st picks. The trade-value chart says the Jets paid 1,056.8 points for picks worth 1,116 points. The difference equates to a pick late in the fourth round. Carolina wound up with linebacker Jon Beason (25th), offensive lineman Ryan Kalil (59th) and linebacker Tim Shaw (164th).
Shockey vs. Haynesworth: In 2002, the New York Giants moved up one spot to No. 14 and drafted tight end Jeremy Shockey. They gave up the 15th pick, which Tennessee used for Albert Haynesworth, and the 110th choice (Mike Echols). Echols never played.
When the Bucs got Buffaloed: Tampa Bay moved up seven spots to No. 14 in 2001 for a chance to draft tackle Kenyatta Walker. The Buffalo Bills came away with the 21st pick, used for cornerback Nate Clements, and the 51st choice (Paul Toviessi). Walker was supposed to lock down the left side of the Bucs' line, but he played mostly right tackle, starting 73 games over six seasons. He was in the CFL by age 29.
The price of moving up: What might the Rams pay if they sought to move up a pick or three from the 14th overall spot? In 1993, the Denver Broncos sent the 14th (Steve Everitt) and 83rd (Mike Caldwell) choices to Cleveland for the 11th overall choice (Dan Williams). A decade later, the Patriots sent the 14th (Michael Haynes) and 193rd (Marques Ogden) choices to Chicago for the 13th choice (Ty Warren). Neither trade was a lopsided mismatch on the value chart. The Patriots underpaid slightly. The Broncos overpaid slightly.
The St. Louis Rams must hope the 14th overall choice treats them better than the 13th and 15th choices treated them recently.
Defensive tackle Adam Carriker was the choice at No. 13 in 2007. Cornerback Tye Hill was the choice at No. 15 a year earlier. Neither lasted long with the team.
This year, Rams fans will be looking to see if one of the top receivers or defensive linemen falls their way at No. 14. As for trading the pick? I'll break out what the 14th overall choice has brought in some previous trades involving only draft choices.
The pick: 14th overall
Held by: St. Louis Rams
Most recent trade involving only picks: 2007. The New York Jets jumped 11 spots to draft cornerback Darrelle Revis at No. 14. This trade helps show what Seattle might have to pay for swapping first-round choices with the Rams this year. In 2007, the Jets sent the 25th, 59th and 164th choices to Carolina for the 14th and 191st picks. The trade-value chart says the Jets paid 1,056.8 points for picks worth 1,116 points. The difference equates to a pick late in the fourth round. Carolina wound up with linebacker Jon Beason (25th), offensive lineman Ryan Kalil (59th) and linebacker Tim Shaw (164th).
Shockey vs. Haynesworth: In 2002, the New York Giants moved up one spot to No. 14 and drafted tight end Jeremy Shockey. They gave up the 15th pick, which Tennessee used for Albert Haynesworth, and the 110th choice (Mike Echols). Echols never played.
When the Bucs got Buffaloed: Tampa Bay moved up seven spots to No. 14 in 2001 for a chance to draft tackle Kenyatta Walker. The Buffalo Bills came away with the 21st pick, used for cornerback Nate Clements, and the 51st choice (Paul Toviessi). Walker was supposed to lock down the left side of the Bucs' line, but he played mostly right tackle, starting 73 games over six seasons. He was in the CFL by age 29.
The price of moving up: What might the Rams pay if they sought to move up a pick or three from the 14th overall spot? In 1993, the Denver Broncos sent the 14th (Steve Everitt) and 83rd (Mike Caldwell) choices to Cleveland for the 11th overall choice (Dan Williams). A decade later, the Patriots sent the 14th (Michael Haynes) and 193rd (Marques Ogden) choices to Chicago for the 13th choice (Ty Warren). Neither trade was a lopsided mismatch on the value chart. The Patriots underpaid slightly. The Broncos overpaid slightly.
BACK TO TOP
Page: 1
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
