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Considerations as the NFL's regular-season schedule release nears Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET:

• Calculating strength of schedule using records from the previous season has limitations. But as ESPN's John Clayton pointed out, significant swings in schedule strength from one season to the next do seem to influence team records. He sees the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens as teams that might have to play better to avoid losing ground.

• Strength of Schedule

  NFL team-by-team strength of schedule breakdown. Nation blog | Opponents
  

  The Giants play the NFL's most difficult projected schedule, a first for a Super Bowl champion, according to Elias Sports Bureau. AFC champion New England plays the easiest one. The team with the easiest schedule has missed the playoffs in each of the last five seasons. That includes the Patriots in 2008, when they finished 11-5 without Tom Brady, who was injured. The Arizona Cardinals have missed the playoffs three times in the last five years while playing the NFL's easiest projected schedule. Last season, the Patriots went 13-3 against the second-easiest schedule.
• The St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings play the toughest home schedules at .563. Neither team appears equipped to win many games on the road. Tough combination.
• This schedule marks the 11th since the NFL realigned into eight four-team divisions, welcoming the Houston Texans as the 32nd franchise in 2002. Since then, 27 franchises have claimed at least one of the 80 division titles available. A reflection of parity's rise? Sorry. Twenty-seven franchises claimed at least one of the 60 division titles available from 1992-2001, when there were six divisions and between 28-31 teams.
• OK, but has the distribution of those division titles changed significantly? Again, not really. Three teams won 30 percent of division titles from 1992 to 2001 (Pittsburgh, Dallas and San Francisco each have six). Three teams won 27.5 percent of division titles in the subsequent decade (New England has eight and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have seven apiece).
• The Patriots and Rams can expect bye weeks to recover from their overseas trips to face one another in London. That is reasonable, but consider this: The distance New England will travel for its game against the Rams -- 3,250 air miles each way -- only moderately exceeds the 2,720 miles Seattle will travel for its game against Miami.
• This schedule features rematches for eight of 11 postseason games from last season: Giants-Packers, Steelers-Broncos, Giants-Falcons, 49ers-Saints, Broncos-Patriots, Ravens-Texans, Giants-49ers and Patriots-Ravens. The major differences this time around: Peyton Manning instead of Tim Tebow in Denver; no Sean Payton in New Orleans; the return of Matt Schaub to the lineup in Houston; and Randy Moss' reincarnation in San Francisco.
• The three playoff games from last season without 2012 rematches: Giants-Patriots, Lions-Saints and Bengals-Texans. Note: Thanks to MemBirdman for the heads up on Giants-Packers.
• Spending 42.1875 seconds analyzing each of the 256 games on the schedule would require three hours, or the time ESPN and NFL Network have set aside for their schedule announcement shows.
• One matchup date is already set. The Cowboys and Giants open the regular season on Wednesday, Sept. 5, making this the ninth consecutive year that the Super Bowl champion has kicked off the season at home in prime time.

Kam Chancellor and Cortland Finnegan are among the NFC West players scheduled to model their teams' new Nike uniforms at an 11 a.m. ET news conference Tuesday.

As noted Monday, it's looking like someone forgot to consult the big guys.

Larry Fitzgerald would be a logical choice to represent the Arizona Cardinals. I'm not yet sure who will represent the San Francisco 49ers, but if it's Mike Iupati or Isaac Sopoaga, consider it a victory for the 300-plus-pound set.

Elsewhere around the division ...

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says Rams restricted free agent Danny Amendola has fully recovered from the arm injury that ended his 2011 season. Amendola would like to participate fully in minicamps later this month. Thomas: "Amendola suffered a dislocated elbow bracing himself as he fell to the turf in the opener against Philadelphia. He also suffered damage to the triceps muscle in the same arm. Always gung-ho, Amendola was hoping once the elbow injury settled down he could return to action wearing a brace. But the triceps muscle suffered additional tearing while Amendola was trying to work his way back onto the field and he was placed on the injured reserve list Oct. 10 and subsequently had surgery to reattach the triceps to his elbow."

Also from Thomas: previewing the Rams' offseason workout program.

Brady Henderson of 710ESPN Seattle offers highlights from Seahawks general manager John Schneider's recent appearance on the station. According to Schneider, Matt Flynn's free-agent visit concluded with the quarterback attending the retirement party for longtime video director Thom Fermstad at a bar near team headquarters. Schneider: "He came over there with us and had a Budweiser with us and he was able to kind of see the inside, the whole building and the kind of family atmosphere. It was just a great way to end it. He congratulated Thom on his 36 years of service with the Seahawks and everything. And then he got on a plane and, quite honestly, I was very much at peace with it because we had a great visit and we knew what our situation was. In any situation like that all you can do is lay out all your cards and then that person is going to evaluate it and we were going to do the same."

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic looks at how the Cardinals have sought value in free agency. Somers on Richard Marshall's departure from the team: "Their thinking was that nickel corners shouldn't make $5.3 million a year. So they didn't come close to matching, and Marshall left for Miami, where he presumably will start. His replacement, William Gay, comes at a far more reasonable price: two years, $3.2 million, including a $500,000 signing bonus. ... Marshall has 17 interceptions in his career, while Gay has three. That's a huge difference, obviously. Still, it's surprising the Cardinals were able to sign Gay at a reasonable price."

Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says third-down conversions have long been a problem for Alex Smith and the 49ers. Cohn: "Last season, Smith’s third-down play tanked inexplicably. He converted a mind-bogglingly low 28.11 percent of third downs and averaged 3.89 third-down conversions per game, ranking 31st. For reference, Tim Tebow averaged 3.92 third-down conversions per game in 2011."

Mark Purdy of the San Jose Mercury News offers details on the 49ers' stadium groundbreaking, set for April 19.

Turns out there's plenty to like -- and some things to dislike -- about those allegedly underestimated Arizona Cardinals.

Some are obvious. Others could use elaboration.

Let's get right to 'em.

What to like

Best WR in the game: Larry Fitzgerald changes games, no matter the stage. Even casual fans should remember his 64-yard, go-ahead touchdown against Pittsburgh with 2:37 left in the Super Bowl. Fewer saw Fitzgerald take over the game and will the Cardinals to victory with little on the line against Seattle in Week 17 this past season. He is the best, in my view.

Multi-level defensive talent: The Cardinals have outstanding talent at all three levels of their defense, as RogueCardinal notes. Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell are bookends up front. Daryl Washington is 25 years old and coming off a season with five sacks, two interceptions, seven passes defensed and 16 tackles for loss. He can become a Pro Bowl-caliber player this year. Adrian Wilson borders on elite at safety. Patrick Peterson progressed at cornerback and should be ready to take a step forward in his second season.

Resiliency. How else to explain the Cardinals' ability to go from 1-6 to 8-8 last season? Their 7-2 record over the final nine games matched the San Francisco 49ers' record over the same period, as PaybackTony noted.

Dynamic returner. Peterson tied an NFL record with four touchdowns on punt returns last season. He's a threat every time he touches the ball and should affect games this coming season as well. Peterson is the only player in NFL history with four touchdowns on punt returns of at least 80 yards in the same season.

Two young pass-rushers. Sam Acho (seven sacks) and O'Brien Schofield (4.5) helped the Cardinals finish tied with the 49ers for most sacks in the NFC West. Neither is even 25 years old. Both should see their playing time increase, which should lead to increased production. Throw in Campbell, who has 21 sacks in 42 starts, and the pass-rush has strong potential.

Two young running backs. Beanie Wells became the first player in Cardinals history with at least 1,000 yards rushing and 10 rushing touchdowns in the same season. Getting 2011 second-round pick Ryan Williams back from injury gives the Cardinals a welcome alternative. The staff was over-the-top excited about Williams before the injury and that excitement has returned now that Williams is getting healthy.

Time on their side. Quarterback Kevin Kolb and linebacker Stewart Bradley seemed to suffer more than most from the lockout last season. Both faced significant adjustments from Philadelphia to Arizona. Both struggled to adapt. A full offseason will benefit both. Ray Horton, a first-year defensive coordinator in 2011, also gets the time he needs to prepare for a season. Horton will benefit from knowing his personnel, having game-day coordinating experience and working with players already familiar with his system. Finding ways to use Bradley's versatility figures to be one point of emphasis.

The Lott factor. John Lott, the Cardinals' acclaimed strength coach, gets a full offseason to work with young players, including one in particular -- nose tackle Dan Williams. Williams reported to camp overweight following the lockout. He was rounding into shape when a broken arm ended his season. Lott should have Williams in much better condition and ready to contribute at a higher level earlier in the season, a big key for the Cardinals' 3-4 scheme.

Depth at cornerback. The schedule serves up quite a few top quarterbacks this season. The Cardinals love their depth in the secondary even after losing Richard Marshall in free agency. They see Peterson, Greg Toler, William Gay and A.J. Jefferson as four corners with starting ability. Michael Adams has considerable nickel experience as well. Horton's background is in the secondary. He knows exactly what he wants from a personnel standpoint and should have the players to execute his scheme.

What not to like

QB question marks. The Cardinals didn't see enough from Kolb last season to inspire confidence in their decision to acquire him. Some fans point to John Skelton's 5-2 record as a starter, plus a victory over the 49ers after a first-quarter injury sidelined Kolb. But as powellofnazareth put it, there was an unsustainable, even "Tebowish" feel to some of those victories. Kolb heads into his second season with the team facing serious questions about his ability and durability.

The offensive line. Center Lyle Sendlein and left guard Daryn Colledge form a capable combination inside. The Cardinals are banking on tackle Levi Brown to continue the progress he showed late last season. They still need another tackle. Pass protection will remain a concern even if the Cardinals draft a tackle early. Their quarterbacks haven't shown the pocket awareness to avoid pressure.

No dominant pass-rusher. The Cardinals accumulated good sack numbers last season, but they lacked one player they could count on for pressure in critical situations. They're dependent upon Acho and Schofield continuing to develop. Drafting a pass-rusher in the first round and then letting him develop as a situational player -- think Aldon Smith in San Francisco last season -- would take this defense to another level.

Depth beyond Fitzgerald. Arizona lacks a defined No. 2 receiver. It's possible improved quarterback play would allow Andre Roberts to grow into that role. It's also possible Roberts and the other receivers do not have the ability to produce consistently. The burden of proof is on Roberts heading into this season.

Injury concerns in the backfield. Kolb, Wells and Williams had injury problems last season.

Footnote

Thanks, as always, for your contributions to the discussion. Ringlaterra, writing in the comments section of the item linked in the opening paragraph above, might have set a record with an 1,154-word dispatch. Love the passion.

More than 80 reporters and at least 31 tripods were in place for the epic Tim Tebow introductory news conference at New York Jets headquarters.

The Jets signed up for the full Tebow experience when acquiring the quarterback from Denver. They are about to discover what it's like to have a player with a larger national footprint than the franchise. But if the organization were serious about reinforcing Mark Sanchez as its starter, why hold a nationally televised news conference for his backup?

Perhaps it was unavoidable given the demand and the market in question. Having Tebow appear alone, without coach Rex Ryan or team brass, was a smart move by the Jets in light of Sanchez's standing as the starter.

I was nonetheless struck by the contrast between the Tebow treatment and what awaited Matt Flynn when the Seattle Seahawks signed him as their likely starter and potential franchise quarterback. There was no news conference for Flynn. The team made him available on a conference call and told him he'd have to compete with Tarvaris Jackson.

Tying up loose ends on a frenetic Wednesday in the NFL:

• No Tebow around here: The St. Louis Rams did not become players for Tim Tebow, who is now headed to the New York Jets after all. The Rams remain in the market for a backup quarterback. Tebow was never close to becoming a Ram.
• Smith's guarantee: News that Alex Smith's contract with the San Francisco 49ers included $9 million in guaranteed money diverged from news the deal included $16.5 million guaranteed. The word "guaranteed" isn't always applied consistently. A year ago, reports suggested Arizona had signed Kevin Kolb to a deal with $21.5 million guaranteed. Kolb was likely to receive that $21.5 million, but the team could have avoided $9.5 million of it by releasing Kolb last week. In general, players receiving substantial signing bonuses will receive their first-year base salaries, whether or not those base salaries are guaranteed. It's tough comparing Smith's deal to, say, Matt Flynn's deal based on reports that might not apply the word "guaranteed" exactly the same. I'll take a closer look once the numbers are on file with the NFL and comparable through league sources.
• Seattle's new lineman: The Seahawks agreed to terms with former Chicago Bears offensive lineman Frank Omiyale, the team announced. Omiyale projects as a backup tackle behind starters Breno Giacomini and Russell Okung. The recently re-signed Paul McQuistan provides depth at guard and showed last season he can start if needed -- even at tackle, should circumstances warrant.

Enjoy your Wednesday night.

Three NFC West teams tried to land Peyton Manning. The other one might come away with Tim Tebow.

With the proposed Tebow trade to the New York Jets in jeopardy and the St. Louis Rams having inquired about Tebow previously, there's at least an outside chance Tebow could be coming to the NFC West.

A few thoughts:

• Sam Bradford is the starter. Tebow would not compete for the starting quarterback's job in St. Louis. The Rams are committed to Bradford for at least the 2012 season and most likely beyond, barring a dramatic change in thinking brought about by unforeseen developments.
• Backup market thinning. Shaun Hill and Brady Quinn signed contracts elsewhere after visiting the Rams. Kellen Clemens finished last season with the Rams and played for new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer when the two were with the Jets. Clemens remains an unrestricted free agent. The Rams are considering other options.
• Tebow's name recognition. Let's face it, the Rams have lacked relevance in recent years. They have virtually no star power beyond Steven Jackson. Tebow would become at least a curiosity. The Rams could find ways to use him as a runner or in certain packages. Adding Tebow could change the subject away from the recently suspended Gregg Williams, as well.
• Protecting John Elway. Getting Manning allowed the Denver Broncos to dump Tebow without incurring much fallout from Tebow's large and passionate fan base. Setting up Tebow for failure in the future would further insulate the Broncos from criticism if the Manning acquisition doesn't produce the desired results. Jets fans would be quick to chant for Tebow and also quick to boo him at the first sign of failure. And in St. Louis, Bradford's presence would block Tebow from the lineup for the foreseeable future.

That's it for now. ESPN's Adam Schefter says Tebow still might be headed to the Jets. The sides are working through elements related to Tebow's contract.

Note: The Rams have not made an offer for Tebow, according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Update: Rams sources are denying any interest in Tebow, according to Thomas.

The list of available unrestricted free-agent receivers continues to dwindle.

The St. Louis Rams aren't going to find the playmaking help they covet on a list featuring Plaxico Burress, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Patrick Crayton, Rashied Davis, Deion Branch, Jerheme Urban, Bryant Johnson, Roy Williams, Greg Camarillo, Jerricho Cotchery, Mark Clayton, Roscoe Parrish, Michael Clayton, Courtney Roby, Michael Spurlock, David Anderson, Legedu Naanee, Devin Aromashodu, Donnie Avery, Maurice Stovall, Andre Caldwell, Ted Ginn Jr., Steve Smith (Philly version), Jerome Simpson and Devin Thomas.

Roger Hensley of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch asked colleagues how the Rams will address the issue. Jim Thomas: "There’s not much left at the position in free agency. The wide receiver shelves were cleaned out quickly, so barring a trade of some kind -- which seems unlikely -- the Rams are almost limited to getting help via the draft. And at No. 6 overall, there’s no guarantee that Justin Blackmon of Oklahoma State will be available. So yes, the team is in a bit of a predicament at wide receiver."

Also from Thomas, regarding Mike Wallace: "He has a first-round tender. And you can only use your original first-round pick as compensation. The Rams no longer have their original first-round pick after trading down with Washington. So they can't acquire Wallace through the regular process of restricted free agency. Now, the Rams could always offer less in a sign-and-trade situation. But why would the Steelers want less than a first-rounder? They put the tender on him in an attempt to keep him." Noted: The Rams could, in theory, offer the sixth overall pick, but that would be a steep price to pay.

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch thinks the Rams should steer clear of Tim Tebow.

Howard Balzer of 101ESPN St. Louis says the Rams' search for a backup quarterback continues in the absence of attractive options.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com quotes 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh regarding Harbaugh's relationship with Alex Smith: "It's been good -- strong relationship, as always. It's a very strong relationship."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee has this to say about the situation with Smith: "It's unclear if Smith agrees with Harbaugh that they are as tight as they've ever been. The team's offer did not exactly mesh with Harbaugh's statements of devotion during and after the season. While it's all but certain Smith will be the 49ers' quarterback this season, it also leaves an opening for backup Colin Kaepernick to take over before the three years are complete. Kaepernick has been a regular at the 49ers' training facility this offseason."

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle says the 49ers have ruled out Tebow, according to CEO Jed York.

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says Early Doucet's re-signing means the Cardinals will return their top receivers from last season. Urban: "Doucet set career-highs in 2011 with 54 receptions, 689 yards and five touchdowns in his fourth NFL season, playing in 16 games for the first time. He came up with a pair of long touchdown catches against Carolina (70 yards) and San Francisco (60 yards) and scored on a game-winning screen pass in Philadelphia."

Also from Urban: The Cardinals have little salary-cap room, and there are tradeoffs associated with gaining flexibility.

Brady Henderson of 710ESPN Seattle quotes Seahawks coach Pete Carroll as saying Peyton Manning reached out to the Seahawks while figuring out which team to join. Carroll: "He had contacted me about wanting to talk about coming here. By the time we got down to where we had our chance he had already set his sights on going in the direction wound up going, with Denver."

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times looks at the market for free-agent linebacker David Hawthorne. O'Neil: "Hawthorne has led Seattle in tackles each of the past three years, but right now, the market for free-agent linebackers looks to be a little softer than some expected." Noted: Looks like we're approaching that period where players reset their expectations before taking deals for less than they had hoped.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com puts together an overview of free agency from the Seahawks' perspective.

Sorry, having a tough time envisioning the San Francisco 49ers acquiring Tim Tebow from the Denver Broncos.

The 49ers, listed with Jacksonville and Green Bay among teams to watch in the Tebow trade talks, do have an opening at quarterback. They do feature prodigious options within their running scheme, options that could surely make use of a player with Tebow's running ability. And every team should consider adding assets to its roster when the value is right.

But if the 49ers do the smart thing by re-signing Alex Smith, where would Tebow fit into a roster already featuring 2011 second-round choice Colin Kaepernick? Where would Tebow fit into the long-term plans? Would he ever project as more than a gadget player? How would his notoriety affect dynamics at the position -- dynamics already thrown off, potentially, by the 49ers' Peyton Manning diversion?

Would Tebow be worth the trouble? He might be the perfect backup quarterback in some ways. A team wouldn't want to build its entire offense around a player with such a unique set of attributes, but if the starter were injured, Tebow's style could lend itself to short-term success.

In my view, the Broncos determined Tebow's style of play was not conducive to long-term success at the position. They did not think his presence on the roster was a net gain for their organization.

I'm not convinced Tebow would represent a net gain for the 49ers, either. New England seems like an ideal landing spot for two reasons. One, the man responsible for drafting Tebow, Josh McDaniels, is running the offense there. Two, Tom Brady's presence as the starter would suppress the irrational aspects of the Tebow phenomenon.

Throwing Tebow into the equation in San Francisco would muddy the quarterback dynamics at a time when the 49ers need clarity at the position.

Update: Schefter removed the 49ers from consideration, and team CEO Jed York has subsequently said Tebow would not play for the team.

Five considerations now that Peyton Manning has told the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans he plans to sign with the Denver Broncos:

• More On Manning

  Peyton Picks Broncos:
  You can call this The Drive Part III: John Elway's determination to get Peyton Manning makes the Broncos a contender again, Ashley Fox writes. Story

  Peyton Manning's decision to play for the Broncos is very bad news for the rest of the AFC West, John Clayton writes. Story

  Manning has a kindred spirit in his corner with Elway as his boss, a big reason why he picked the Broncos, Bill Williamson writes. Blog

  • How Manning fits
  • How good are Broncos?
  • NFL Nation: Bloggers react
  • Mike and Mike: Chris Mortensen
  

  ---

  Tim Tebow Watch:
  Mel Kiper breaks down five teams that may be interested in Denver quarterback Tim Tebow, now that Peyton Manning looks to be the starting QB for the Broncos. Story

  • NFL Nation: Bloggers on Tebow's fate
  • Rumors: Who wants Tebow?
  • ESPN Boston: Tebow a fit for Pats?
  • Vote: Tebow's future in NFL?

  ---

  SportsNation:
  Peyton Manning's pick of a team set Twitter abuzz and drew reaction from several current and former NFL players. Not all (Deion Sanders) were fans of the move. Reaction

  • Vote: Peyton, Broncos a good fit?
  • Vote: Rank Broncos after move
  • Quiz: Broncos QBs since 2000

  More:
  • Fantasy: Broncos WRs gain value
  • Stats & Info: What Manning brings
  • Peyton Manning photo gallery

  Big sighs of relief: Arizona, Seattle and St. Louis no longer must worry about defending against a Manning-led 49ers offense. A healthy Manning would have made the 49ers even more formidable than they were while going 5-1 against the division last season. It's looking like the Seahawks will be the team in the division with the best shot at upgrading their quarterback situation.
• Harbaugh must take lead: The seemingly special bond between 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and 2011 starter Alex Smith could need some repairing. That should not be too difficult if Harbaugh has been forthright with Smith throughout the process. The 49ers, like the Cardinals, will want to define their interest in Manning as a special case unrelated to their incumbent quarterback. Re-signing Smith should be a no-brainer now.
• Smith's only logical option. Smith has made it known he wants to continue playing for the 49ers. Hurt feelings suffered during negotiations and the Manning diversion should not be grounds for divorce. Unless Smith acts hastily out of anger, which seems unlikely given his temperament, the 49ers should now be able to re-sign Smith to a deal that gives them the flexibility to hand things over to Colin Kaepernick in the next couple years if Smith falters. The 49ers did lose some leverage, however, when Manning picked Denver over Tennessee. A deal with the Titans would have pushed Matt Hasselbeck onto the market.
• Forget about Tim Tebow. The Broncos wanted Manning not only because Manning is a great quarterback when healthy, but also because the organization was seeking a Tebow exit strategy. Manning's acquisition provides the perfect cover for Broncos executive John Elway, who has made clear his feelings that Tebow's playing style is not sustainable. I would not anticipate NFC West teams having interest in Tebow if the Broncos tried to trade him.
• Manning not on schedule. NFC West teams do not play the Broncos in 2012. They still face a lengthy list of talented quarterbacks, including Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Every NFC West team does face the Miami Dolphins, who lost out on Manning, did not sign Flynn and could have a tougher time signing Smith now that the 49ers have lost out on Manning.

It's a relief to have the Manning situation resolved. I was looking forward to the possibility of having him in the division, however, whether with Arizona or San Francisco.

A few thoughts as Peyton Manning prepares to visit the Denver Broncos:

• Manning would serve as the perfect Tim Tebow exit strategy for a Broncos leadership that has been skeptical about the team's ability to win over time without better quarterback play from the pocket.
• A Denver Post report says Manning wants to make a decision by Tuesday, and that he also plans to visit the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins. Getting a deal done so quickly would limit the number of trips Manning could realistically make before signing. That timetable and list of teams suggests Manning has no plans to visit Seattle or other teams expressing interest.
• The Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and St. Louis Rams have to be rooting for Miami or Denver to prevail over Arizona if those are indeed the three favorites for Manning.
• ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen say their sources are "adamant" that Manning's visit to Denver is only a visit, not a negotiating session, and that the timing does not identify Denver as the favorite to land Manning; they also indicate Manning is expected to visit Arizona.
• The Cardinals have made significant progress as an organization since 1993, when Joe Montana met with them before accepting a trade to Kansas City. Montana was never considered to be serious about the Cardinals back then, but with a new stadium and recent success with Kurt Warner, Arizona should have a much better shot at landing Manning.
• Missing out on Manning would not necessarily force Arizona to pay a $7 million bonus to Kevin Kolb by March 17, unless the Cardinals felt strongly about Kolb as a vastly superior option over John Skelton.
• The fact that Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt has promised Skelton a chance to start raises at least some questions over the Cardinals' commitment to Kolb, although Whisenhunt has long been against anointing anyone.
• If the Cardinals are not sold on Kolb, they have extra incentive to land Manning.
• Having Manning land in Arizona would focus additional attention on the 49ers' understandable (but nonetheless debatable) decision to stick with Alex Smith, and on whatever decision the Seahawks wind up making at the position.
• The Rams want to keep Cleveland and Washington in play for the No. 2 overall pick, so they should be fine with Manning landing in Denver or Miami; Manning to Arizona wouldn't devalue the second overall pick, but it would make life in the NFC West tougher for St. Louis.
• Manning's health is still a big variable here, introducing risk for any team deciding to sign him.

Those hoping to escape the all-Manning news cycle could be in for a rough weekend.

Seth from Newport News, Va., says the ESPN.com/ESPN The Magazine's NFL Any Era team "is a joke" if the St. Louis Rams' Steven Jackson does not appear on the list.

Mike Sando: Jackson did not appear on the list. Tim Tebow did. That seems wrong. We do not even know for sure whether Tebow will be good in this era, do we?

The overall list is strong. Ray Lewis, Troy Polamalu, Charles Woodson, Brian Urlacher, Patrick Willis, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ed Reed, Darrelle Revis, Jared Allen and Dwight Freeney are among those listed.

I thought the San Francisco 49ers' Justin Smith was an obvious omission among those watching him play regularly. But how many people, Hall of Famers or otherwise, have watched the 49ers' defensive line in recent seasons?

People should know plenty about Steven Jackson, because he carries the ball and, quite frequently, defenders trying to tackle him. Seth is surely right about the Rams' poor record hurting Jackson in these types of polls.

In retrospect, I should have broken out an item about Jackson's omission without any prompting. He has demonstrated all the necessary qualities -- toughness, grit, consistency, leadership, versatility, production -- to make him a timeless player. Very few running backs have run with more ferocity than Jackson.

The way Jackson has played through injuries becomes more impressive when we consider the stakes for his team were relatively low. I'll never forget watching him slam himself into the 49ers' defense while trailing 35-0 a few years ago. He made a statement to his teammates and anyone watching. Circumstances would not diminish what he represented. I'll also never forget how he fought through a 2009 back injury that would require surgery. He started 15 games even though his team was 1-15 that season.

A lesser man -- even a normal one -- would have shut it down late in that season. What was the point? Jackson refused to do that. He kept coming back for more and finished with 324 carries, the second-highest total of his career.

Jackson was clearly qualified for the Any Era team. So were Larry Fitzgerald and others. But as with voting for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, there are usually more worthy candidates than spots available for enshrinement. That means very good candidates do not always get their due, at least right away. That should not diminish them in any way.

History cares little about how Joe Montana and Dwight Clark played before combining for "The Catch" to send the San Francisco 49ers into the Super Bowl.

That single moment defined the 49ers' 1981 season. It still defines Clark and, to a degree, Montana as well.

The fact that Montana finished that NFC Championship Game against Dallas with three touchdowns, three interceptions and an 81.4 NFL passer rating is irrelevant.

Thirty years later, Alex Smith's 28-yard touchdown run and winning 14-yard scoring pass to Vernon Davis -- all in the final 2:11 of the 49ers' 36-32 playoff victory over New Orleans -- have given NFL history two more iconic plays.

We know those plays were pivotal and Smith deserves credit for his role in them. The question is always, how much?

Not long after the game, several people wanted to know what ESPN's quarterback metric said about the most significant performance of Smith's NFL career.

Hey, I wonder if Total QBR gave Smith his due. It did, but probably to an unsatisfying extent.

The figure was 78.1 out of 100, third-best in the divisional round, behind those for Tom Brady (95.1) and Eli Manning (88.8). Aaron Rodgers (66.9) and Drew Brees (62.0) also fared above the 50-point level representing average play.

"If Smith only had a [78.1] QBR, that system is horrible," came one response. "Four TDs and no picks?"

I'd give Smith a perfect score for coming through in epic fashion. QBR measured Smith's performance on different terms. To what degree did his play affect win probability throughout the game?

On the bad side, Smith took three of his four sacks on third down. He fumbled twice, losing one on third down. On the good side, he won the game with clutch fourth-quarter throws, including well down the field. His QBR for the game jumped from 25.7 to 64.2 on his 28-yard scoring run. It rose to 78.1 with his 14-yard pass to Davis for the win.

Better yet for Smith, his fourth-quarter QBR was 99.7, the third-highest for any player in a fourth quarter this season. His score for the game was his fourth-highest of the season. The team is 12-0 when his QBR exceeds 41.4 (50 is average).

The first chart shows Smith's QBR scores by game in descending order.

The chart below shows scores for all quarterbacks in the divisional round. The columns with "EPA" show how many expected points were added through the quarterback's contributions. Every situation carries a certain amount of expected points. A negative play reduces the expected points for a given situation.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

Kevin Kolb will emerge from the 2011 NFL season with an incomplete grade, whether or not he plays for the Arizona Cardinals in their Week 17 game against Seattle.

The reviews have been mostly negative. Kolb was the starter when the Cardinals were opening the season with a 1-6 record. The team won six of its next seven games, but Kolb was the primary quarterback for only one of them. Backup John Skelton hasn't shined in relief, but he did play well enough late in a few victories for the Cardinals to capitalize on defensive improvements and big plays on special teams.

Kolb suffered injuries from head (concussion) to toe (and foot) this season. Durability was a problem for him previously in Philadelphia. Upon seeing Kolb at Cardinals camp, his demeanor and rapport with teammates instantly impressed me. But he also appeared less sturdy looking than I had anticipated. He will benefit from a full offseason working under the Cardinals' noted strength and conditioning coach John Lott.

A full offseason in Arizona should also help Kolb make a smoother transition into an offense that was new to him.

The highlight for Kolb this season was probably the 73-yard touchdown pass he threw to Larry Fitzgerald at Washington in Week 2. Kolb knew he was going to take a crushing hit on the play. He waited long enough for Fitzgerald to get deep, sacrificing his body to deliver in the clutch. The play gave the Cardinals a 21-13 lead early in the fourth quarter.

With and without Kolb, the Cardinals have struck for far more big plays this season than last. They have more pass plays covering 40-plus yards (14) than ever team but the New York Giants and Detroit Lions. Even the Green Bay Packers (13), New England Patriots (12) and New Orleans Saint (10) have fewer. Arizona had only three such plays last season, tied for the NFL low. Larry Fitzgerald's yards per reception has spiked from career-low levels in 2009 (11.3) and 2010 (12.6) to a career-best 17.8. Those are encouraging signs.

But it's also clear the team needs to improve its pass protection. Kolb needs to gain a better feel for the pocket and when to get rid of the football. He need to improve dramatically on third down, as the chart indicates. A deeper knowledge and comfort with the offense should help in those areas, but there are no guarantees. The Cardinals could be back in the market for another starting quarterback one year from now.

As Kent Somers noted Wednesday, the team plans to pay a $7 million bonus to Kolb this offseason, assuring Kolb's return to the team for a second season. That makes sense given what the Cardinals have invested and the alternatives likely available to them. It's also worth pointing out that other quarterbacks acquired by trade enjoyed success after inauspicious debuts with their new teams. The chart below shows stats for Kolb and future Pro Bowlers Matt Hasselbeck and Matt Schaub in their first seasons with new teams.

Hasselbeck in particular struggled during an injury-marred first season with Seattle after the Seahawks acquired him from Green Bay. He was 26 years old in 2001, his first year with the team. Kolb is 27. Unlike Kolb this season, Hasselbeck in 2001 was running the same offense he had learned from the same head coach, Mike Holmgren. But the Seahawks benched him after one year and nearly gave up on him altogether before a season-ending injury to Trent Dilfer gave Hasselbeck another chance.

There is still time for Kolb, in other words.
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The Arizona Cardinals have a 5-1 record when quarterback John Skelton plays this season.

They are 2-6 when he does not.

The disparity raises questions about how the team should proceed if doctors clear starter Kevin Kolb to return this week from a concussion. The numbers say Kolb or just about anyone else should start, but the team might want to keep Skelton around for fourth quarters and overtimes.

Skelton, who played a leading role in the Cardinals' comeback from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit Sunday, owns four game-winning drives after third quarters in his last eight appearances. But he has been much worse than average earlier in games.

In fact, Skelton ranks last among 36 qualifying quarterbacks in first-quarter Total QBR this season, posting a 6.3 score that lags far behind average (50) on a 100-point scale. Skelton improves to 28th in second quarters (32.0) and 28th in third quarters (35.9) before making a striking transformation. Skelton ranks 12th in fourth-quarter QBR (66.5) and ninth in fourth quarters and overtimes combined (71.4).

That 71.4 figure in fourth quarters and overtimes ranks just ahead of those for Tom Brady (68.2), Matt Cassel (66.1), Matt Ryan (65.2) and, yes, Tim Tebow (63.0).

Tebow outranks Skelton in fourth-quarter QBR, 73.5 to 66.5, but Skelton has done more to help his team win in overtimes.. The Cardinals are 3-0 in overtime games this season, including 2-0 with Skelton. They visit Cincinnati in Week 16.


Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 15 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (55.6 QBR, 79.3 NFL rating): Skelton completed 28 of 46 passes for 313 yards with one touchdown, one interception, four sacks and two runs covering seven yards. He did not fumble. Skelton completed passes of 21, 23 and 24 yards during a roughly two-minute period of the fourth quarter. His longest completion, a 32-yarder to Larry Fitzgerald, set up the winning field goal in overtime. Skelton completed no passes longer than 12 yards to his running backs or wide receivers before the fourth quarter. Tight end Todd Heap played a more prominent role.
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks (42.6 QBR, 94.4 NFL rating): Jackson completed 19 of 31 passes for 227 yards with one touchdown no interceptions, one sack and three rushes for minus-2 yards. The Bears recovered his lone fumble for a touchdown. Jackson completed 15 of 19 passes after halftime. That included a deep pass to Ben Obomanu for a 43-yard gain to the Chicago 3-yard line on the Seahawks' opening drive of the second half. Marshawn Lynch scored on the next play, tying the game and beginning a 31-0 scoring run for Seattle.
• Kellen Clemens, St. Louis Rams (24.0 QBR, 95.7 NFL rating): Clemens completed 25 of 36 passes for 229 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, three sacks and two rushes covering 9 yards. The Rams recovered his lone fumble. Clemens was impressive for a quarterback joining his team only recently. His team trailed for all but five minutes of the game, however. QBR rewards quarterbacks for improving win probability for their teams. The Rams converted twice in 13 third-down chances. They managed two first downs on three drives while the Bengals turned a 6-6 game into a 20-6 blowout. A touchdown with 1:14 remaining proved inconsequential.
• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers: plays Monday night.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 15.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

The Arizona Cardinals have won in spite of John Skelton and because of him, often in the same game. The overtime victory they pulled out Sunday provided another case study -- and the basis for a comparison unlikely to catch on outside the desert.

Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic draws parallels between Skelton and the Denver Broncos' Tim Tebow. Both are second-year quarterbacks with winning records as starters and experience leading their teams from behind in fourth quarters. Bickley: "Both quarterbacks have an uncanny ability to frustrate their coaches, deflate their fans, underwhelm their receivers and somehow play their best in the final 15 minutes. Except Skelton isn't running a gimmick offense. And with a 4-1 record in games he's started this season, the Cardinals quarterback actually has a better winning percentage than Tebow." Noted: Skelton also gets credit for playing all but the first few plays of a 21-19 victory against the San Francisco 49ers last week, another game featuring a double-digit comeback by Arizona. The team has trailed in the second halves of all its games this season, winning half of them. Dramatic improvements on defense have played a leading role. Kevin Kolb could be cleared to return from injury for the Cardinals' next game. Might the team stick with Skelton?

Kent Somers and Jim Gintonio of the Arizona Republic note that the Cardinals' Patrick Peterson stayed patient Sunday before coming through with a 32-yard punt return in overtime. Noted: Browns coach Pat Shurmur said one of his players mistakenly thought Peterson had signaled for a fair catch. Peterson has shown a willingness to return punts even from his own 1-yard line, so the Browns should have assumed he'd be returning this one as well.

Also from Somers: a Cardinals game recap naming second-year outside linebacker O'Brien Schofield the player of the game.

More from Somers: postgame thoughts on a range of Cardinals-related issues. On the quarterback situation: "We won't know until Wednesday, at the earliest, if Kolb will be ready to play against the Bengals on Christmas Eve. I think if Kolb is healthy, the Cardinals will start him. Yes, John Skelton is 4-1 as a starter this season, but the defense's improvement has more to do with that than anything. Skelton, however, has made progress this season. You have to like the way he hangs in the pocket, and the way he creates something positive when a play breaks down."

Bob McManman of the Arizona Republic says the Cardinals are getting good things from Schofield. Daryl Washington: "O'Brien really stepped up and it was great to see him make those two sacks, back to back. It can't get no better than that. I wish we would have scored a touchdown right there, but the defense, man, we're always going to be there for you."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com checks in with Larry Fitzgerald for thoughts on how the Pro Bowl receiver got so open on the reception that moved the Cardinals into range for the winning field goal. Fitzgerald: "We had been in that bunch (formation) three times throughout the day and every single time we ran it before, we ran the ‘Toss Crack’ out of it for Beanie (Wells). As soon as I lined up in the formation they were yelling ‘Crack, crack, crack!’ The cornerback kind of settled, and I saw that and went vertical and broke it to the corner."

Also from Urban: "To be a top offense, the Cardinals need to improve on some things themselves. Skelton was 28-for-46 for 313 yards, a touchdown and an interception. But Fitzgerald was held to three catches, and after Schofield’s huge sack to force the fumble -- originally, Wallace was declared down but Whisenhunt challenged the play and it was overturned -- the Cards lost 10 yards after getting the ball on the Cleveland 5-yard line."