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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the 49ers in 2012:

Dream scenario (14-2): The 49ers pick up where they left off last season. They continue to force turnovers and protect the football while dictating field position with their dominant special teams. This time, however, the offense has more firepower.

Receiver Michael Crabtree backs up coach Jim Harbaugh's comments suggesting Crabtree has all-time-great hands. A rejuvenated Randy Moss strikes fear into secondaries. Quarterback Alex Smith, armed with sufficient weapons, strikes for explosive plays more frequently. The offensive line, stabilized by Alex Boone's emergence as a top young guard, sustains drives on third downs and finishes them in the red zone.

Rookie receiver A.J. Jenkins hits stride in December as the 49ers clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs heading into Week 17. Colin Kaepernick throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns in the regular-season finale as San Francisco eliminates division-rival Arizona from playoff contention. Sufficiently rested, the 49ers score a dominating victory over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, delivering San Francisco its first Super Bowl title since the 1994 season.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): The odds catch up to Smith when the Detroit Lions' Ndamukong Suh delivers a controversial hit at the knees in Week 2. Kaepernick isn't ready, Moss loses interest and the offense can't score enough points. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning has the Denver Broncos looking like contenders.

The 49ers realize they were fortunate to have Smith start 18 games the previous season despite taking 51 sacks. They realize how risky it was going into the season without a proven right guard. How hard would it have been to pay one of the veteran options the team considered in free agency? That's a question reporters keep asking, even though none of them said much before the season. The question stings now that Smith is done for the season and Kaepernick is running for his life.

Tough defense and special teams keep the 49ers reasonably competitive. The coaching staff does its best to stabilize the situation. The 49ers compete and steal victories from other teams with quarterback issues. In the end, however, they become the latest team to suffer a hard fall after posting a glittering record the previous season. Rock bottom arrives when Sando notes, again, that the 13 teams finishing 13-3 from 2004 to 2010 averaged 8.3 victories the following season.

Randy Moss' impressive offseason with the San Francisco 49ers continues, generating positive reviews.

"The first day, it was surreal out there throwing balls to him," quarterback Alex Smith said. "The physical skills everybody knows. The thing you appreciate a lot is the guy's a true pro. He's played a lot of football. He's incredibly smart out there."

If this sounds familiar, it should.

With Moss, it's often about impressive debuts and new beginnings. Sometimes, he sticks around and produces, as the case was with New England. Other times, the initial impressions do not foreshadow future results.

Moss impressed the Oakland Raiders when he joined them by trade from Minnesota in 2005. That situation did not work out well (the Raiders obviously deserve some of the blame).

"I thought Randy was outstanding," Norv Turner, then the Raiders' coach, said after Moss' first couple practices with the team. "He got in yesterday afternoon late and we put a lot of offense in today and we have a lot going in this weekend. He handled it extremely well. It's a whole different system than he's been around. He went out and relaxed and obviously he can run and catch and do those things. He looked very comfortable to me."

Moss impressed the New England Patriots when he joined them by trade from Oakland in 2007. Moss played very well for the Patriots before his time with the team ran its course.

"Tom Brady has heard the critics who expect Moss to bring more baggage to the Patriots than a hotel valet would," The New York Times wrote back when Moss joined New England. "But so far, Brady has been impressed, and Moss looked explosive during Wednesday’s workout. During one portion of practice, Brady and Moss stood off to the side by themselves, talking and throwing a football, part of the working bond they hope to create."

Moss impressed the Vikings when he rejoined them by trade from the Patriots in 2010. Moss wound up making little impact (the Vikings, like the Raiders, had their own issues).

"He's had a whirlwind week-and-a-half catching up on a new playbook, and the Vikings were quite pleased with his performance against the New York Jets last week despite the lack of familiarity," the Associated Press reported. "The coaches have noted progress in practice this week, believing he'll be able to be more comfortable with his routes without having to stop and think too much about his assignment."

Moss impressed the Tennessee Titans when he joined their team off waivers in 2011. He made almost no impact with the team on the field, however.

"When Randy Moss comes into your locker room, he brings something. Guys are seeing that and responding to it," Kerry Collins, then a Titans quarterback, told reporters. "The biggest thing is just the way he's working. You never judge a book by what you hear. You wait and see what a guy is about. He's come in here with a great attitude and ready to work. The guy just wants to win. Period. The end. He'll do whatever it takes to make that happen."

Moss impressed the New Orleans Saints during a workout in 2012. They did not sign him, however.

"Moss had an off-the-charts workout at the Saints facility this morning," sportsNOLA.com reported. "The 35-year old Moss reportedly performed the 40-yard dash in the 4.39 to 4.4 range and ran routes while hauling in nearly 50 passes. One source described Moss as being more impressive than anticipated, saying that he is in great shape."

And, of course, Moss is impressing the 49ers this offseason. The situation in San Francisco appears more stable than the ones in Oakland or Minnesota (the second time). Perhaps the results will be better as well.

A quick spin around NFC West rookie camps in search of notes to file away:

• Arizona Cardinals: Tight end Steve Skelton, brother of quarterback John Skelton, might have a shot at earning a roster spot this season. Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic made that observation. Todd Heap, Jeff King, Rob Housler and Jim Dray would outrank Skelton on the depth chart at tight end. Those four stuck on the initial 53-man roster last season. Arizona had opened with three tight ends on its roster in every other season since Ken Whisenhunt became head coach in 2007.
• San Francisco 49ers: Quarterback Alex Smith took the time this offseason to work on his mechanics. Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle has the details. Some offseason stories can be overblown (players adjusting their workout routines, etc.). This one intrigues because the coach Smith consulted has worked with Tom Brady, Drew Brees and other top quarterbacks. An assistant coach once told me Brady had better mechanics entering the NFL than any quarterback he had evaluated. Mechanics matter a great deal for quarterbacks. Brady remains close to perfect in that area. The question for Smith or any quarterback is whether he'll revert to bad habits under pressure.
• St. Louis Rams: The team has high expectations for rookie receivers Brian Quick and Chris Givens. Quick, a second-round choice from Appalachian State, was supposed to be raw. Nick Wagoner of stlouisrams.com called Quick "smooth and more polished that expected" during the first practice of camp. Coach Jeff Fisher singled out Quick's "good hips" relative to his size (Quick is 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds). The plan has to be for Quick in particular to develop quickly enough to help right away. Initial reports suggest the Rams are optimistic on that front.
• Seattle Seahawks: I forgot to mention second-round pick Bobby Wagner in my report from Seahawks camp Friday. His body type was notable. Wagner is shorter than the prototypical linebacker. He also appears thicker through his lower body. The Seahawks pointed to his 4.4-second speed when they selected him. Position coach Ken Norton Jr. was noncommittal when asked whether Wagner, a middle linebacker, could project to the outside (K.J. Wright would play the middle in that scenario). The staff would prefer to keep Wright, a 2011 fourth-round choice, on the strong side. That is where fifth-round rookie Korey Toomer projects as well. Toomer's athleticism jumped out right away, including when he picked off a tipped pass.

These are day-one impressions, so they come with all the usual disclaimers. It'll be interesting to revisit them during the season.

Perceptions can play tricks. Sometimes, they're flat-out wrong.

Michael Crabtree demonstrated as much early during his tenure with the San Francisco 49ers. He came to the team with a reputation as a diva receiver, reinforced by his alliance with Deion Sanders. But the 2009 first-round draft choice quickly earned teammates' respect with his hard work and elevated football IQ.

Subsequent events have renewed questions about Crabtree. There was a fight with team leader Vernon Davis, apparent disinterest in the exhibition season and implied frustration with his role.

"All I do is run routes," Crabtree said following an overtime playoff defeat to the New York Giants last season. "When you don't get that many opportunities, it's hard to talk."

Asked specifically whether he had been open, Crabtree said, "Half the time you're not going to be open. That's why they call you a playmaker -- just give you chances."

A comment or two made in frustration should not define a player.

Yet, as much as I've resisted buying into perceptions on Crabtree, negative possibilities came to mind when considering his developing friendship with new teammate Randy Moss. Visions of the two talented wideouts growing close could foreshadow difficulties for opposing defenses -- and, possibly, for 49ers quarterback Alex Smith.

Alas, the New England Patriots traded Moss to Minnesota in 2010 partly because the veteran receiver had become too high-maintenance for quarterback Tom Brady. Crabtree has been around three seasons now, but he's still only 24 years old. I wonder to what degree Moss could impact him, for better or worse.

Again, perceptions can be unreliable. In this case, I found them inescapable.

Time is on the 49ers' side. Moss will earn no guaranteed money without first earning a spot on the 53-man roster. He might wind up being a terrific teammate and mentor even if that has not always been the case previously.

Arizona Cardinals receiver Michael Floyd was fifth and Seattle Seahawks pass-rusher Bruce Irvin sixth on John Clayton's list of 10 new draft choices likely to make the greatest immediate impact.

"Floyd's presence may force defenses into more zone coverages, because it will be hard to double Larry Fitzgerald and match up man-to-man against Floyd," Clayton theorized. "Irvin is probably the draft's best pass-rusher and should put up double-digit sack numbers early in his career."

Let's consider that a launching point for a discussion EDTGO jump-started from his luxury box in the comments section of an earlier item on Arizona's draft thinking.

"Floyd will be starting and will have the best position of the rookies to get stats," he wrote.

Rookie receivers making at least 10 starts from 2009 through last season averaged 46 receptions for 721 yards and five touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference. Cincinnati's A.J. Green and Tampa Bay's Mike Williams had the most receptions of the group (65 apiece). Green, Williams and Julio Jones each topped 900 yards. Those three joined Torrey Smith as the only ones with more than six touchdown receptions.

We shouldn't forget about St. Louis Rams second-round receiver Brian Quick. He has a good chance at starting. The Rams thought Quick reminded them of Terrell Owens from a physical standpoint. Owens had 35 catches for 520 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, making 10 starts.

The status for San Francisco 49ers first-round receiver A.J. Jenkins could be tougher to define initially. He could wind up starting if the Randy Moss experiment does not work out. He could also ease into the role, getting fewer opportunities as the 49ers run their offense through other players primarily.

Double-digit sacks from Irvin might be enough to eclipse for impact the projected receiving numbers from Floyd, Quick or Jenkins.

Five rookies since 2009 have collected at least 10 sacks. San Francisco's Aldon Smith, with 14 sacks last season, was the only one to do so as a backup. Von Miller, Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews and Ndamukong Suh -- all first-round choices, as were Smith and Irvin -- reached double digits in sacks while starting at least 13 games.

Carlos Dunlap had 9.5 sacks in 12 games, none of them starts, for Cincinnati in 2010.

Irvin should benefit from the Seahawks' very specific plans for him. The team got nine sacks in zero starts from Raheem Brock in 2010. Irvin will play a similar role and a similar percentage of the snaps, giving him a very good chance to eclipse Brock's total -- if he's talented enough to produce those numbers. Brock played about 50 percent of the snaps for Seattle in each of the last two seasons.

Who else deserves our consideration?

"Janoris Jenkins has a shot ... assuming he can keep his head on straight," ramm428a wrote.

"Yep," randdles wrote, "Jenkins will get to face five of the top QBs this year, he could make a big impact."

Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are among the high-profile quarterbacks Jenkins, a second-round cornerback with first-round talent, will face in his initial season with the Rams. Jenkins will face those quarterbacks by Week 8, giving him a chance to shape perceptions early.

Devin McCourty and Joe Haden are the only drafted cornerbacks to exceed five interceptions as rookies over the past three seasons.

"Michael Brockers could have a huge impact," JohnnyP3180 wrote of the Rams' first-round choice. "Not flashy, but he could make the biggest difference for his team."

That might be true, but as a run stuffer, Brockers probably won't accumulate the stats players often need to draw acclaim. We'll be sure to monitor Brockers' contributions closely regardless.

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How to value Alex Smith's performance stood among the most debated subjects on the NFC West blog last season.

Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.

The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.

Total QBR, the metric ESPN's Analytics Team developed to more fully assess how quarterbacks contributed to winning, supported the 49ers' valuation.

Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.

The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.

Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.

The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.

Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.

These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.

"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."

The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.

"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.

"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."

I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.

For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.

My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.

This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.

Jason Licht's return to the Arizona Cardinals as player personnel director should be good for the team and for the man he's replacing.

Licht, last with Arizona as a personnel assistant in 2008, has worked extensively for the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots, two of the more successful organizations during his years with those teams. He was a finalist to become the Chicago Bears' general manager, a job that went to Phil Emery.

The Cardinals made room for Licht by promoting Steve Keim from player personnel director to vice president of player personnel. Keim has been with Arizona since 1999. He remains second in command to general manager Rod Graves, but we probably shouldn't get too caught up in the titles. Graves has never thrown around his power. The Cardinals seem to work collaboratively, with input from coach Ken Whisenhunt, president Michael Bidwill, Graves and Keim, primarily.

Licht is rejoining the team in a role more significant than the one he held in New England (director of pro personnel). He sought advancement with Chicago and found it with Arizona.

Licht has worked for the Miami Dolphins (1995-1996), National Football Scouting (1997), the Carolina Panthers (1998), the Patriots (1999-2003), the Eagles (2003-2007), the Cardinals (2008) and again for the Patriots (2009-2011).

"NFL scouts who worked with Licht in Philadelphia say his personnel reports are 'concise' and convincing," Jeff Dickerson wrote for ESPNChicago. "He was considered one of the rising stars in the Eagles organization before being pushed out in 2008."

With Licht, the Cardinals should have a good feel for New England's personnel when the teams play in Week 2. That won't necessarily make stopping Tom Brady much easier, of course. But any edge is welcome.

Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.

Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.

Run, run, run.

And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.

The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.

St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).

NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.

Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.

The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).

San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).

The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.

And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.

The 2010 New England Patriots had just posted a 41-14 victory over the Miami Dolphins heading into their bye week.

They had a 3-1 record and should have been gaining momentum, but their veteran wide receiver, Randy Moss, wasn't happy. Moss had blown up at offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien during halftime of that Dolphins game, the final act of insubordination that New England would tolerate. The Patriots traded Moss to Minnesota a couple days later.

"Moss as a Patriot in 2010 basically talked his way out of town, complaining about his lack of a long-term contract in a press conference, battling with offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien at halftime of his final game with New England, in Week 4 of that season, and reportedly taxing the patience of quarterback Tom Brady with his constant need for game plan targeting and star-treatment coddling," Don Banks wrote for Sports Illustrated. "Brady was growing weary of having to worry about keeping Moss' mood ring a happy color, and [Bill] Belichick responded by removing that concern from his QB's daily checklist."

The Patriots finished that 2010 season with a 14-2 record.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, the 2010 the Cardinals were 2-2 on their way to a brutal 5-11 season featuring ragged play from no-name quarterbacks. But their leading receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, handled himself so professionally that the team felt great about rewarding him with one of the most lucrative contracts in NFL history.

While the Patriots increasingly worried about Moss' potential negative impact on Brady and the example he was setting for younger players, the Cardinals took comfort in the fact that Fitzgerald handled himself impeccably, in good times and bad.

The disparate picture is sharply relevant to the NFC West now that Moss has signed with the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers, like the Cardinals, used a 2012 first-round draft choice for a wide receiver. But Arizona appears in better position to provide the mentoring that can help a young player learn what it takes to become a professional.

Michael Floyd, chosen 13th overall by Arizona, already has strong ties to Fitzgerald. The two are from Minnesota. They share a trainer. They have spent time together. Fitzgerald, who has welcomed young Cardinals players into his home, voiced support for Floyd even before the draft, indicating he'd be happy if the team selected the Notre Dame receiver. Floyd could not have a better mentor.

The 49ers' first-round receiver, A.J. Jenkins, walks into a different situation. Moss might be terrific for him, or he might pursue his own agenda as time passes. The halftime blowup against the Dolphins comes to mind.

"It highlighted a shift in which Moss had transitioned from a team-first player in 2007 to someone more interested in his own production," Mike Reiss wrote for ESPNBoston.com. "It is also my belief that quarterback Tom Brady became increasingly drained with keeping Moss on board, to the point that it became a concern of the coaching staff."

If Moss became a threat to Brady, what could he become to a less-established quarterback such as Alex Smith? Michael Crabtree has already raised concerns about his role. If Smith cannot keep Crabtree happy, how can he keep Moss happy?

The 49ers have little to lose by giving Moss a chance. They can always release him if Moss becomes a burden. From that standpoint, the signing made sense.

It's also worth noting that Jenkins comes to the 49ers without the off-field concerns that Floyd carries to the Cardinals. There have also been some vague indications Moss might have been going through some personal trials in 2010, in which case his mindset might be healthier at this time.

This is a conversation I think we'll be having through the offseason and into the season. Your thoughts?

Justin from Davis, Calif., asks whether there's something more to Alex Smith. Specifically, can he become truly elite? "What is the hope of someone transforming into a superstar quarterback after so many non-performing years?"

Mike Sando: Before analyzing Smith as a player, let's tip our caps to him for helping the coordinated search for a missing Bay Area teenager over the weekend. His presence helped bring awareness to the search beyond whatever direct assistance he provided. That is commendable.

As for your question, Justin, let's more clearly define the word "elite" for these purposes. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees strike me as truly elite quarterbacks. Smith probably is not going to suddenly put up 30-40 touchdown passes per season.

Smith was most remarkable last season for avoiding mistakes. His interception percentage, 1.1, was third-lowest in NFL history for a player with at least 400 pass attempts. His numbers were good -- 17 touchdowns, five interceptions, 90.7 NFL passer rating -- but far from prolific. They were not elite QB numbers. They were smart, cautious numbers.

The percentages say Smith will have a hard time maintaining such a low interception rate. However, I do think it's possible for him to improve upon his 2011 numbers. Matt Cassel is not an elite quarterback, but he had a 27-7 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions in 2010. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman have put together similar ratios in recent seasons.

The 49ers probably will not ask Smith to carry their team. They will want him to protect the football. But with more opportunistic play in the red zone and improved efficiency on third down, Smith can make progress in 2012.

Five considerations now that Peyton Manning has told the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans he plans to sign with the Denver Broncos:

• More On Manning

  Peyton Picks Broncos:
  You can call this The Drive Part III: John Elway's determination to get Peyton Manning makes the Broncos a contender again, Ashley Fox writes. Story

  Peyton Manning's decision to play for the Broncos is very bad news for the rest of the AFC West, John Clayton writes. Story

  Manning has a kindred spirit in his corner with Elway as his boss, a big reason why he picked the Broncos, Bill Williamson writes. Blog

  • How Manning fits
  • How good are Broncos?
  • NFL Nation: Bloggers react
  • Mike and Mike: Chris Mortensen
  

  ---

  Tim Tebow Watch:
  Mel Kiper breaks down five teams that may be interested in Denver quarterback Tim Tebow, now that Peyton Manning looks to be the starting QB for the Broncos. Story

  • NFL Nation: Bloggers on Tebow's fate
  • Rumors: Who wants Tebow?
  • ESPN Boston: Tebow a fit for Pats?
  • Vote: Tebow's future in NFL?

  ---

  SportsNation:
  Peyton Manning's pick of a team set Twitter abuzz and drew reaction from several current and former NFL players. Not all (Deion Sanders) were fans of the move. Reaction

  • Vote: Peyton, Broncos a good fit?
  • Vote: Rank Broncos after move
  • Quiz: Broncos QBs since 2000

  More:
  • Fantasy: Broncos WRs gain value
  • Stats & Info: What Manning brings
  • Peyton Manning photo gallery

  Big sighs of relief: Arizona, Seattle and St. Louis no longer must worry about defending against a Manning-led 49ers offense. A healthy Manning would have made the 49ers even more formidable than they were while going 5-1 against the division last season. It's looking like the Seahawks will be the team in the division with the best shot at upgrading their quarterback situation.
• Harbaugh must take lead: The seemingly special bond between 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and 2011 starter Alex Smith could need some repairing. That should not be too difficult if Harbaugh has been forthright with Smith throughout the process. The 49ers, like the Cardinals, will want to define their interest in Manning as a special case unrelated to their incumbent quarterback. Re-signing Smith should be a no-brainer now.
• Smith's only logical option. Smith has made it known he wants to continue playing for the 49ers. Hurt feelings suffered during negotiations and the Manning diversion should not be grounds for divorce. Unless Smith acts hastily out of anger, which seems unlikely given his temperament, the 49ers should now be able to re-sign Smith to a deal that gives them the flexibility to hand things over to Colin Kaepernick in the next couple years if Smith falters. The 49ers did lose some leverage, however, when Manning picked Denver over Tennessee. A deal with the Titans would have pushed Matt Hasselbeck onto the market.
• Forget about Tim Tebow. The Broncos wanted Manning not only because Manning is a great quarterback when healthy, but also because the organization was seeking a Tebow exit strategy. Manning's acquisition provides the perfect cover for Broncos executive John Elway, who has made clear his feelings that Tebow's playing style is not sustainable. I would not anticipate NFC West teams having interest in Tebow if the Broncos tried to trade him.
• Manning not on schedule. NFC West teams do not play the Broncos in 2012. They still face a lengthy list of talented quarterbacks, including Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Every NFC West team does face the Miami Dolphins, who lost out on Manning, did not sign Flynn and could have a tougher time signing Smith now that the 49ers have lost out on Manning.

It's a relief to have the Manning situation resolved. I was looking forward to the possibility of having him in the division, however, whether with Arizona or San Francisco.

The San Francisco 49ers realized a terrific return on investment by signing Carlos Rogers to a one-year deal in free agency last offseason.

Rogers put together a Pro Bowl season, positioning himself for a big payday.

The 49ers now have options. They could sign the 30-year-old corner at a premium price. They could seek another bargain at the position. They could try to sign Rogers once the market settles, provided he remains unsigned. They could identify younger talent at the position and proceed accordingly.

The team has already signed former Denver Broncos starter Perrish Cox to a two-year deal. Initial reports are linking the 49ers to former Kansas City cornerback Brandon Carr and Detroit Lions corner Eric Wright in free agency.

It's early and I would caution against making assumptions prematurely. I'll be watching to see how much money the 49ers invest in the position. Their current leadership released Nate Clements and the fat contract Clements signed as a free agent years earlier. That same leadership gave former starter Shawntae Spencer permission to seek a trade. The 49ers used 2011 third- and seventh-round choices on corners.

NFC West teams face a long list of top quarterbacks in 2012. The 49ers are scheduled to go against Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and Drew Brees.

Purely from a football standpoint, they would likely be best off with Rogers. That doesn't necessarily make him the best value.

A few thoughts after the San Francisco 49ers reached agreement Monday on a one-year deal with receiver Randy Moss:

• The 49ers needed to do something at the position. They probably still do. But there's at least an outside chance Moss will help them open up the passing game and threaten opponents down the field. There was less chance of that happening without Moss on the roster.
• San Francisco's low-risk investment in Braylon Edwards did not work out last season. Edwards suffered knee and shoulder injuries. He appeared to become frustrated. The 49ers cut him late in the season even though they needed manpower at the position. Moss is the new Edwards, a big-name receiver trying to revive his career on the cheap. Edwards was a strong vertical threat before joining the 49ers, but that aspect of his game never materialized in San Francisco. The 49ers' yards-per-catch were down across the board. That changed in the playoffs when Vernon Davis got going. Can Moss provide something similar, even in small doses? Davis is much younger and more athletic than Moss at this point.
• What will Moss offer in the locker room? How will he mesh with Michael Crabtree? The 49ers were generally pleased with Crabtree last season. They loved the way he blocked. They appreciated the plays he made in crucial moments, including against Cincinnati (negated by a bad officiating call) and at Seattle (clutch catch down the sideline). There's still a sense from the outside that Crabtree hasn't fully bought into what the team is doing, as reflected by some of his comments and, in the past, his lack of participation in various offseason practices. Those perceptions might not line up with how coach Jim Harbaugh views Crabtree, however.
• A one-year contract gives Harbaugh and the organization all the leverage. The 49ers can release Moss at any time. That makes this signing a low-risk proposition. Skepticism should prevail until Moss proves he can be more effective than he was while bouncing from team to team to team during a lackluster 2010 season. He's 35 years old and has been out of the game for a year. We're more likely to see an old Moss than the Moss of old, and the nature of the 49ers' offense wouldn't seem to facilitate downfield strikes.
• Assistant head coach and special-teams coordinator Brad Seely was with Moss in New England. His presence provided the 49ers with an honest first-hand assessment of what Moss might offer. Then again, Moss was catching passes from Tom Brady in New England. How will he react with Alex Smith as his likely quarterback?
• Minicamps and training camp just became more interesting for the 49ers. Moss will be the center of attention. I'm looking forward to seeing him match up against Arizona's Patrick Peterson and the big, aggressive corners in Seattle.

Your thoughts on Moss to San Francisco? Fire away.

Greg from Seattle thought Victor Cruz's first-quarter non-fumble in the Super Bowl, rendered irrelevant by a penalty for 12 men on the field, resembled the forward-progress call involving Ahmad Bradshaw that hurt San Francisco during the 49ers' game against the Giants two weeks ago.

"The only discernible difference I saw was that there were two men involved on Bradshaw's fumble two weeks ago," Greg wrote. "If this week's play had been ruled a fumble while the Niners were not permitted even to challenge, I would have been outraged. Curious to hear your perspective."

Mike Sando: I had the exact same thought, but it was a fleeting one because of the penalty. The 49ers weren't necessarily victimized by a horrible call, in my view. It seemed like one of those unlucky ones, along the lines of the chop-block call against Frank Gore in Baltimore. I disagreed with the call against Gore and thought the 49ers caught a bad break on the Bradshaw ruling. The Cruz play looked similar when watching the game live. (Update: Gore chop block was obviously at Baltimore; I mistakenly wrote Philadelphia originally).

Former NFL officiating boss Mike Pereira, now a Fox analyst, offered this take: "Without this penalty, fans would have been left wondering why the play in San Francisco was ruled forward progress and this one wasn’t. In my opinion, both plays should have been ruled forward progress and not fumbles."

I dislike the forward-progress ruling when it's close. Rules require players making receptions to hold onto the ball through the conclusion of the play. Why not enforce the same standard for players running with the ball? If officials think forward progress has been stopped, then they should blow the whistle. Had the whistle blown when Bradshaw lost the ball? How about when Cruz lost the ball? If not, the play was live, right?

I'm open-minded on this, but that's how it looks from this angle.

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Bruce from Port Angeles, Wash., was among several writing to express satisfaction after seeing Cortez Kennedy become the second longtime Seattle Seahawks player enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He appreciated whatever work was done in presenting Kennedy's credentials to the selectors.

Mike Sando: The Mount Rushmore of Seahawks history would include Steve Largent, Kenny Easley, Kennedy and Walter Jones, in my view. Shaun Alexander deserves consideration as well, but I think those other guys were the elite of the elite in the pure ability to dominate their opponents.

Easley, Kennedy and Jones played extremely physical positions, too, so their dominance was a cut above simply by the nature of their jobs. I tend to favor candidates who flat-out dominated even when two or three opponents at a time matched up against them. Kennedy fit that criteria.

Kennedy's candidacy suffered some from the Seahawks' struggles during the 1990s. The team kept hiring offensive-minded head coaches in an effort to fix that side of the ball, going from Chuck Knox to Tom Flores to Dennis Erickson to Mike Holmgren during Kennedy's tenure.

Holmgren's arrival in 1999 led to an 8-2 start and playoff appearance that season. Kennedy had 6.5 sacks and two interceptions that year, with three of those sacks during Holmgren's return to Green Bay on the Monday night stage. Overall, Kennedy appeared in prime time only five times during his career. For that reason, many of the selectors rarely saw him play.

One key to Kennedy's enshrinement was making sure the selectors had the relevant facts and testimonials before them. Presenting Kennedy was straightforward. His credentials made it so.

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Ted from San Carlos thought Wes Welker was taking far too much criticism for the pass he failed to catch with four minutes remaining in Super Bowl XLVI. He questioned whether I had even watched the game. "How could you blame Welker for that 'drop' when the pass was terrible? Brady had a wide-open Welker and made a bad pass. It would have been a GREAT catch had he caught it. This is on Brady."

Mike Sando: Welker blamed Welker. He is a credible source on the subject. The ball hit both of his hands.

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Suzy from Dallas says Welker "manned up" and took the blame for missing what would have been a "miracle" catch. "When you review the tape," she wrote, "please retract your entire story (like a man)."

Mike Sando: David Tyree made a miracle catch in Super Bowl XLII. Welker has a clear opportunity to make this catch. He is one of the best receivers in the NFL. Many sources, including the Boston Globe, have described this pass for what it was, a bit behind Welker, but catchable. If Welker had made that catch, people would not be talking about it in the vein they discuss Tyree's catch. Not even close.

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Andy from Syracuse was among several fans asking whether the 49ers' move to Santa Clara on game days will result in a name change.

Mike Sando: They will still be the San Francisco 49ers. Their headquarters have been in Santa Clara for years. The team's history and heritage is very important to team persident Jed York. Santa Clara is not that far away.

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Darren from Vacaville, Calif., did not like reading in our recent Super Bowl losers story the word "outclassed" to describe the Los Angeles Rams during their Super Bowl defeat to Pittsburgh following the 1979 season. "This team had the feared Steelers on the ropes," he wrote.

Mike Sando: I'm going to grant you this one. I actually did not write that part of the item. Jamison Hensley and I worked on that together. He wrote the part on the Rams. I saw it and did not disagree strongly enough to talk to him about adjusting it. It was a reasonable take given the Rams' status that season as a 9-7 team without its starting quarterback, Pat Haden.

Sorry, no Arizona Cardinals questions this time. There weren't any fresh ones atop the mailbag. My flight is making its way across the country. Figured I'd better file this while the laptop battery was strong, the wireless was working, etc.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Our weekly NFC West conversation with Mike Jurecki expanded Friday to cover broader subjects from Radio Row at Super Bowl XLVI.

Full menu below. Audio here.

• Indy as a Super Bowl city: favorable reviews all the way around.
• Football in St. Louis: see earlier.
• Expansion: clarifying Roger Goodell's comments regarding going to 34 teams.
• Thursday night games: what the league should guard against after going from eight to 13 games on Thursday nights.
• Peyton Manning options: see earlier, and earlier than that.
• Kevin Kolb options: Taking a risk on a not-quite-healthy Manning could have some appeal if the Cardinals saw little difference between Kolb and John Skelton.
• Offensive line considerations: Upgrading at offensive tackle makes sense for the Cardinals, especially if Kolb and Skelton are the quarterbacks.
• Super Bowl predictions: Why does it feel as though the Patriots are underdogs?
• Legacies at stake: Tom Brady and the Patriots can resume their earlier trajectory with a victory over the New York Giants.

Enjoy your Friday night. I'm organizing materials for Pro Football Hall of Fame voting Saturday morning.