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INDIANAPOLIS -- Two pieces at Grantland.com and Troy Aikman's subsequent comments played into a theory suggesting concussion problems could threaten the NFL's long-term popularity.

Aikman does not have a son, but said he would have reservations about one playing.

I asked one of Aikman's contemporaries about the subject Friday from the NFL scouting combine. John Elway, speaking as the Denver Broncos' general manager, said he has no second thoughts about having allowed his son to play.

Elway's son, Jack, quit playing after enrolling at Arizona State.

"To me, I guess I look at the game of football and realize that that is part of football," Elway said. "I think the NFL is doing everything they possibly can to keep the integrity of the game and also protect the players. ...

"As a football player, to me, we can't go too far. When you put that helmet on, you know it's a risk. My son played football, and if he wanted to play again now, I'd let him play just because I know what I think of the game of football and to me what the game of football teaches you, not only while you are playing it but also when you are done playing and you are out in the business world."

Andy from Des Moines, Iowa asks whether Pro Football Hall of Famers were disproportionately early draft choices.

Mike Sando: Yes, that is definitely the case. The Hall of Fame lists them by round. I also track this information. By my count, 143 of 188 drafted Hall of Famers were chosen in the first three rounds. That is 76.1 percent. That includes 94 first-round selections, 29 second-rounders and 20 third-rounders.

No players drafted after 1995 have been enshrined to this point.

Curtis Martin, named as part of the 2012 class, was a third-round choice in 1995. The previous six drafts have produced eight Hall of Famers, and all eight were first-round choices: Marshall Faulk, Willie Roaf, Cortez Kennedy, Emmitt Smith, Troy Aikman, Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas and Deion Sanders.

Later-round picks fared better long ago, when the draft had many more rounds. The NFL went from 17 to 12 rounds in 1977, then to eight in 1993 and seven the following year.

The chart below shows round-by-round distribution for drafted Hall of Famers since the 1983 class produced six Hall of Famers in the first round, the most for any first round.

Players drafted in first rounds tend to have more talent. They also tend to get every opportunity to succeed. The combination of those factors explains why more of them have found their way to Canton, in my view.

The San Francisco 49ers went into the 2011 season hoping to close the deal on a new stadium in Santa Clara.

Let's just say it was a good time to go 13-3 and advance to the NFC Championship Game.

Mike Rosenberg of the San Jose Mercury News says the 49ers' playoff push should help them sell season-ticket packages that stand as a big part of the funding equation. Finding a naming-rights sponsor for the new stadium should also become much easier. Rosenberg: "The final piece to the funding puzzle is securing $150 million to $200 million in league financing. With the NFL owners slated to vote on the funds Feb. 2, it didn't hurt to shine the national playoff spotlight on dilapidated Candlestick Park for consecutive weeks, particularly after two embarrassing blackouts during a Monday Night Football game this season. But success on the field is not a guaranteed cash cow, even in rich markets. When the New York Giants, Jets and Yankees sold seat packages for their new stadiums, it wasn't so easy. The Giants were fresh off a Super Bowl title, the Jets had just made it to the AFC Championship and the Yankees were a perennial power. Yet all three teams failed to sell out the priciest tickets when their home fields opened in 2009 and 2010."

Alex Espinoza of 49ers.com says Patrick Willis relishes playing on a winning team for the first time since his freshman year of college.

Lowell Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says the next challenge for Alex Smith is to come up big again -- and again after that. Cohn: "Smith is good, promising, and people believe in him. We see all that. One great performance doesn't make anybody great, and a failure on Sunday will plunge Smith once again into a netherworld of uncertainty. I am not saying he will plunge. I don't think he will. I am saying he must make more great throws against the Giants. I'm saying the game almost surely will come down to him. He has to do it again -- and then again."

Jerry McDonald of Bay Area News Group takes a closer look at the 49ers' secondary.

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle gets Troy Aikman's thoughts on Smith.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says the 49ers aren't going to talk trash before their game against the Giants on Sunday.

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch examines where Sam Bradford fits in a Jeff Fisher-prioritized Rams offense. Miklasz: "Some of what Fisher likes to do is, indeed, old-fashioned when compared to the recent high-scoring trend that's turning NFL games into sessions of 'Madden 12' on the Xbox. Fisher does like to run the football and control the game. He does believe in having competitive, somewhat unruly men doing the blocking up front. He would like to see his guys punish opponents. He does not object to seeing opponents limping away in pain. It's the kind of "outdated" football that has the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants in the four-team field for Sunday's conference championship games." Noted: Quarterback troubles with the unpredictable Vince Young marked Fisher's final seasons in Tennessee. Bradford will be much easier to coach.

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch passes along these comments from Fisher regarding who will have ultimate authority on personnel decisions: "There's too much that needs to be done in this building for one person to do it all. It's like anything else, you've got to surround yourself with good people and trust the people to get their jobs done. It's no different than when you're putting together a coaching staff. The head coach is not calling offense, defense, and making special teams decisions in the game. You let your coordinators do those things. It's all about surrounding yourself with the best people you can."

Also from Thomas: Hue Jackson interviewed for the offensive coordinator's job under Fisher.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic does not expect the Cardinals to re-hire Todd Haley to their offensive staff. Somers: "Talks between the two sides have been amicable, as far as I know, but coming to agreement on a position that meets the Cardinals' needs and matches Haley's career goals has been elusive. It's become clear that coach Ken Whisenhunt doesn't want to make a major shake-up on his offensive staff. He believes in coordiantor Mike Miller, who is not going to be demoted. The only open position, then, is the quarterbacks job, and Haley would fit perfectly into that role. But Haley is a former coordinator and head coach. It's understandable he would want more responsibility than that. Haley also likes Miller, and both sides are sensitive to the possibility of hiring someone who would be perceived as looking over Miller's shoulder."

Brady Henderson of 710ESPN Seattle summarizes a recent conversation between Brock Huard and Mike Salk asking whether the Seattle Seahawks' Tarvaris Jackson could follow the path Alex Smith has taken this season. Henderson: "Smith learned a new offense (Greg Roman is his seventh coordinator in as many seasons) in the same lockout-shortened offseason. Jackson, meanwhile, has run the same offense since he entered the league in 2006. As former NFL quarterback Rich Gannon said last week, 'If anyone should have known the offense it's Tarvaris Jackson.' If Smith can thrive in a new offense after a lockout-shortened offseason, why didn't Jackson do so in a familiar offense under the same circumstances?"

John Boyle of the Everett Herald says the Seahawks' approach to winning follows the ones San Francisco and Baltimore have taken to the championship round. Noted: Every team would be much better off with a quarterback capable of the things Tom Brady or Drew Brees could do. That doesn't mean a team absolutely has to have one in order to win playoff games. It's just that teams should not aspire to advance in the absence of a top quarterback. That should not be the blueprint.

Trent Dilfer's latest Insider piece should interest those wondering whether the 2011 San Francisco 49ers resemble the Baltimore Ravens' Super Bowl-winning team from 2000.

Dilfer was the "game manager" at quarterback for that Ravens team. He finds quite a few similarities and a few important differences. Dilfer also explains how both teams played to their strengths even when it meant sacrificing big plays on offense.

My initial reaction to the Ravens-49ers premise: Baltimore was better on defense. Those Ravens also struggled to find their identity early in the season, winning only five of their first nine games before closing the regular season with seven consecutive victories. The current 49ers are who they thought they were -- a team that could win with defense, special teams, the running game and efficient quarterback play.

That Baltimore team faced relatively weak quarterbacks at a time when defenses could get away with more menacing play. Former Ravens coach Brian Billick addressed this during an NFL.com column addressing the Ravens-49ers comparisons.

"When we won our championship, there was a void of great quarterback play in the league," Billick wrote. "Running the ball well, and not turning it over, was enough to augment our great defense. At the time, the Elways, Marinos, Montanas and Aikmans of the world were transitioning out of the game, and we were a few years away from the emergence of the great quarterbacks of today."

Those Ravens lost games against Jay Fiedler, Brad Johnson and Kordell Stewart. They went 1-1 against Steve McNair and 2-0 against Mark Brunell. They beat Vinny Testaverde and a young Jake Plummer. They also collected victories against an over-the-hill Troy Aikman, plus Kent Graham, Tim Couch, Scott Mitchell, Akili Smith, Doug Pederson and Ryan Leaf.

The current 49ers have gone 8-1 against a mix of opposing quarterbacks. They lost in overtime to Tony Romo, but also defeated Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford when those quarterbacks were at their best. They beat Michael Vick and Josh Freeman, who have subsequently struggled. They beat Andy Dalton, who appears promising, and also collected victories against Tarvaris Jackson, Colt McCoy and John Beck.

How these 49ers finish will ultimately determine whether the comparison holds up. My favorite line from Dilfer's column: "When I was asked this week if the San Francisco 49ers of 2011 reminded me of that 2000 Ravens team, I wasn't offended. I get it: great defense, good coaching, quarterback you hope doesn't ruin it."

Smith is playing better than that, and Dilfer says so. But that line captures the feeling quite a few 49ers fans had early in the season, if not as much lately.

The Buffalo Bills did not suddenly field a roster packed with perennial Pro Bowl linemen.

Their quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, has nonetheless taken only two sacks in 147 drop backs.

I ran across this improbable stat when researching for the next MVP Watch item. It reinforced the idea that sacks, which are often drive killers, reflect so much more than a line's ability to prevent them.

The list of players with the fewest sacks in a season (minimum 300 pass attempts) features almost exclusively players lacking the raw speed or athletic ability to avoid defenders. Dan Marino, Mark Rypien, Kerry Collins, Joey Harrington and Troy Aikman are the only players in the sack era (since 1982) with at least 300 attempts and fewer than 10 sacks in a season.

The system a team runs, the receivers a team has and the decisions a quarterback makes also play prominently into the totals.

We're seeing that in the NFC West through four games.

The St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford is on pace for 72 sacks, which would tie Randall Cunningham for the second-highest total in a season since sacks became an official stat in 1982. He's learning a new system featuring deeper drop backs and slower-developing routes, all while playing without his most dependable receiver. Bad combination.

San Francisco's Alex Smith (14 sacks), Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson (14) and Arizona's Kevin Kolb (12) rank among the seven most-sacked quarterbacks in the NFL this season. NFC West starters have taken 58 sacks, with Rams backup A.J. Feeley also taking one. Line issues have played larger roles for Smith and Jackson, in my view. Kolb's feel for the pocket hasn't seemed strong enough, possibly a reflection of his inexperience and learning a new offense.

Sacks were down for Smith (three in 36 drop backs) and Jackson (zero in 38, against an Atlanta defense that now has no sacks in its past three games) in Week 4. The Rams are off this week, but the other NFC West teams rank among the 15 teams with at least 10 sacks so far this season. This will be a theme for the division in Week 5.

Skip Bayless and Dan Graziano took up the case for Charles Haley as a Pro Football Hall of Famer on ESPN's First Take.

Bayless thought Haley should have qualified on the first ballot as a key championship variable for the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. Bayless and Graziano also touched upon to what degree Haley's sometimes disagreeable and disruptive behavior affected his candidacy. Those are relevant factors, but this discussion is incomplete without acknowledging what role the process plays in enshrinement.

To say that Haley or another player should have earned enshrinement in a given year usually suggests another player wasn't as deserving. The Hall accepts no more than seven candidates per year, including a maximum of two seniors candidates, meaning even deserving candidates must be more deserving than those actually enshrined to raise a serious beef.

Haley was first eligible in 2005. Steve Young and Dan Marino were the only modern-era candidates elected that year. Michael Irvin and Harry Carson were also finalists that year, but neither received the 80 percent approval rating required for enshrinement. Both became Hall of Famers later. Was Haley obviously more deserving than those four?

Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, Reggie White and Carson comprised the 2006 modern-era class. Irvin, Bruce Matthews, Thurman Thomas and Roger Wehrli comprised the 2007 modern-era class. Fred Dean, Darrell Green, Art Monk and Gary Zimmerman made it in 2008. Randall McDaniel, Bruce Smith, Derrick Thomas, Rod Woodson and Ralph Wilson made it in 2009. The 2010 class featured Rickey Jackson, John Randle, Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith.

The current class includes Richard Dent, Marshall Faulk, Deion Sanders, Shannon Sharpe and Ed Sabol.

We could argue that he was more deserving than a candidate here or there, but only a very few elite candidates -- Rice, White, Emmitt Smith, Bruce Smith, etc. -- have credentials strong enough to transcend any Hall class.

Tim Brown, Roger Craig, Dermontti Dawson, Andre Reed, Cris Carter, Cortez Kennedy, Bob Kuechenberg, Randy Gradishar, L.C. Greenwood and several of the above-mentioned Hall of Famers have also been finalists since Haley became eligible.

Was Haley obvious more deserving than each of them? It's a debate worth having, but also one that goes beyond whether Haley should get in at all.

Two notes while on the subject of quarterbacks and when teams select them:

• Teams drafted quarterbacks first overall 14 times in the last 24 drafts. The list: Sam Bradford (2010), Matthew Stafford (2009), JaMarcus Russell (2007), Alex Smith (2005), Eli Manning (2004), Carson Palmer (2003), David Carr (2002), Michael Vick (2001), Tim Couch (1999), Peyton Manning (1998), Drew Bledsoe (1993), Jeff George (1990), Troy Aikman (1989) and Vinny Testaverde (1987).
• Teams drafted quarterbacks second overall three times in the last 37 drafts. The list: Donovan McNabb (1999), Ryan Leaf (1998) and Rick Mirer (1993).

When teams sense an elite quarterback is available in a draft, that quarterback often doesn't make it past the first overall choice. Further evidence: All three quarterbacks taken second overall were the second quarterbacks taken in their draft classes.

Would you rather pull those names out of a hat at random, knowing you would get those players' careers as they played out, or would you rather use one of the top two choices -- or even one of the top seven, given where NFC West teams select -- to select a quarterback in the 2011 draft?

Mel Kiper's third mock draft for 2011 serves as the foundation for discussing how NFC West teams might proceed this offseason.

I'll continue with a look at his plans for the San Francisco 49ers, who hold the No. 7 overall choice.

7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU


Kiper's give: There were a lot of comments questioning why I could see my No. 1 overall Big Board player dropping this far on draft day. But consider the history: in 1987, I had Rod Woodson rated similarly, and he fell to No. 10 overall. In 1989, Deion Sanders was far and away the best athlete on the board -- he fell to No. 5. Champ Bailey was my best athlete and the top corner available in the 1999 draft, and he fell to No. 7. At this position, it simply happens, and San Fran should be happy if it does. Peterson is an immense talent. He checked in at 219 pounds and ran a 4.34 40-time in Indy. Enough said.

Sando's take: Yes, elite cornerbacks do tend last longer on draft day. I recall Mike Holmgren once saying his former defensive coordinator, Fritz Shurmur, only cared about front-seven players when drafting for defense. The drafts Kiper singled out -- 1987, 1989 and 1999 -- featured consensus No. 1 overall quarterbacks at the top. Vinny Testaverde went first in 1987. Troy Aikman followed in 1989. Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith went 1-2-3 in 1999. The current draft class does not yet have a consensus No. 1 overall choice. That could make it easier for a non-quarterback to threaten for the top choice. The 49ers would be thrilled, in my view, if Peterson were there for them at No. 7.

Kevin Lynch of Niner Insider says the 49ers' search for a GM will be a 'sham' if current team executive Trent Baalke gets the job quickly. Lynch: "The 49ers are either creating a huge smoke screen to conceal their true desire to hire someone other than Trent Baalke as their general manager, or their GM search is a sham. Yet another league source said Baalke's hire was a done deal. Not only that, reports and sources say his hiring has been in the works for several weeks." Hiring from within isn't necessarily a bad thing. It would be puzzling, however, for the 49ers to hire Baalke quickly without following through on team president Jed York's pledge to consider as many people as possible.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com checks in with 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis, who lobbies for Takeo Spikes' return and says he wishes he could play Sunday.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says former Broncos general manager Ted Sundquist is the latest candidate to interview for the 49ers' GM job.

Daniel Brown of the San Jose Mercury News offers details on Willis' hand injury. Brown: "Willis provided new details about the second hand surgery that will keep him out of Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals. He said X-rays after last week's game revealed that bones in his hand had moved, despite a pin that had been surgically inserted to keep it in place. Willis said he thought the X-ray was just a formality and was laughing right up until the moment the doctor gave him a serious look."

Eric Branch of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat wonders how the 49ers will approach a meaningless game after coming out flat with the playoffs on the line.

Also from Branch: checking in with Nate Davis.

David White of the San Francisco Chronicle says the 49ers want to interview at least one GM candidate who will not be available before next week, but Trent Baalke remains the overwhelming favorite to become GM.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com takes a closer look at Craig Terrill's almost accidental development into a kick-blocking machine. Terrill has three blocked field-goal tries this season and eight for his career, tied with Joe Nash for most in franchise history.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times passes along this comment from Seahawks coach Pete Carroll regarding quarterback Charlie Whitehurst: "It's all on him. I've talked about that. This is the big opportunity. This is the big challenge. This is the big spotlight. This is all of that for him." No pressure, Charlie.

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune says containing Steven Jackson remains the key to beating the Rams. Jackson has never reached 100 yards rushing against Seattle. Nose tackle Colin Cole: "It always starts with Steven Jackson. They’re not going to put the whole offense on Bradford’s shoulders and expect him to win the game for them. It’s not going to happen. They’ve got one of the top-five running backs in the game in their backfield, and he makes that team better. And he’s going to be the No. 1 threat that we have to take away from them as best as we can."

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says the Cardinals' John Skelton has shown an ability to make plays, at least on occasion, without ideal mechanics. Coach Ken Whisenhunt: ""The one thing that I've been really impressed with John is, at that position, you have to be able to throw the football in all kinds of different physical positions, and I've seen him do that."

Also from Somers: Guard Alan Faneca considers retirement. Faneca proved this season he was not washed up after the New York Jets released him, but suffering through a 5-10 season surely has taken away some of the enjoyment. Faneca: "You know you are getting closer to the end than you are to the beginning, so you just appreciate the moment and treat it as if it is the last time. I've seen guys that haven't known (it was ending)."

Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic says Cardinals rookie receiver Andre Roberts is making strides. Larry Fitzgerald: "He had a rough start and that's been well noted, but you really have to tip your hat for the way he's bounced back. It really makes you proud to see a guy so resilient and dealing with controversy and things not going his way. I told him after the (Cowboys) game how happy I was for him. . . . He's getting better every single week. He can get a lot better and he is getting better."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says unusual weather has forced the Cardinals to brave the elements this week. Whisenhunt even wore sweatpants instead of shorts to one practice.

Also from Urban: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie did not earn a Pro Bowl berth this season, but all was not lost. Urban: "The ironic part is that defensive coordinator Bill Davis actually sees this as Rodgers-Cromartie’s most consistent season of his three. DRC’s work in the film room has greatly improved, and Davis said Rodgers-Cromartie’s mistakes have been minimized. On that point, Rodgers-Cromartie doesn’t disagree, saying that he has learned a lot and has been consistent in practice."

Bryan Burwell of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams' last few seasons have made the more appreciative of their current opportunity. Burwell: "Don't tell them they ought to be embarrassed for still being alive and kicking in the NFL playoff hunt with a 7-8 record. Don't tell them that winning the NFC West title is an insult to everyone's football sensibilities, because they just might tell you something you don't want to hear, such as what it has been like to have endured the pain and suffering through one of the most moribund eras in NFL history."

Roger Hensley of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch asks colleagues to compare Sam Bradford to other quarterbacks in style and approach. Burwell: "He reminds me a little of Joe Montana for his nimbleness out of the pocket, and Troy Aikman as a big man in the pocket with great accuracy." That's a combination the Rams could live with.

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch compares Bradford to other quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall. Miklasz: "You'd have to go back to John Elway (1983) to find the last time a team made the playoffs after drafting and starting a QB chosen No. 1 overall. But even then, Elway had some help; he started 10 games for Denver, with Steve DeBerg making the other six starts."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says Mike Hoomanawanui returned to practice for the Rams. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur: "Mike did a good job today. He got a limited amount of reps, and the stuff that we did with him he seemed to be able to function. Obviously, Coach (Steve Spagnuolo) will make the final decision on what happens with Mike, but as far as today goes, it's promising."

Nick Wagoner of stlouisrams.com says cornerback Jerome Murphy returned to full participation after missing time with a broken finger.

Also from Wagoner: The Rams' defensive front has been key this season. Wagoner: "Led by the talented trio of James Hall, Chris Long and Fred Robbins and deploying a rotation that sometimes goes as many as nine deep, the Rams front four has become the lead force behind a defensive resurgence that’s seen them make tremendous strides this season."

More from Wagoner: Rams veterans are savoring a chance to earn a playoff berth.

Jonathan Webb of stlouisrams.com says former Seahawks kicker Josh Brown has played a key role in the Rams-Seahawks rivalry over the years.

One more return touchdown in Week 17 would leave the Arizona Cardinals tied with the 1998 Seattle Seahawks for the most in an NFL season.

Note that previous reports had associated that record with the 2003 Seattle team; the Cardinals have subsequently updated their note. It was definitely the 1998 team. I covered that Seahawks team and remember it struggling to an 8-8 finish in Dennis Erickson's final season as head coach.

One of the more memorable returns that season: Sam Adams batting Troy Aikman's pass to himself and returning the ball 25 yards for a touchdown.

The chart shows the teams with at least 11 return touchdowns. I've added a column for season records. Arizona and Seattle are the only teams on the list that failed to finish with a winning record despite all those unconventional points.

Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Pam Oliver get the call for Fox when the Seattle Seahawks face the New York Giants in Week 9. Kickoff is at 4:05 p.m. ET.

Fox's top-ranked crew hasn't worked a Seattle game since Week 13 of the 2008 season, when the Seahawks faced Dallas in Walter Jones' final game.


CBS has eight crews. Fox has seven. The networks rank their crews, with higher-ranked ones drawing more attractive assignments such as Super Bowls, playoff games and marquee matchups.

Earlier: 2008, 2009.

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch thinks former Tampa Bay running back Derrick Ward could make sense as a backup with the Rams. Ward and Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo were with the Giants years ago. Thomas: "To me, this one makes a lot of sense, particularly since Spags has a history with the guy. Keep in mind, during the free agency period following the '08 season -- Spags' first offseason with the team -- he called Ward during free agency to see if he'd be interested in coming here. Now maybe Ward still won't want to come here to back up Jackson, but it's better than not having a job."

Also from Thomas: Troy Aikman speaks from experience when he says the Rams need to upgrade Sam Bradford's supporting cast. Aikman: "You know, Sam, he's going to get hit. That's a (Rams) team that hasn't been very good. They've got to get better players around him. You want to protect him. You don't want to see him get banged up. But yet if he goes through this experience with a team that isn't very good, then he can take at least some consolation in knowing that, 'OK, I'm learning. I'm figuring this thing out. And I'm not holding back a team that has high expectations.' I think that's a positive. But I think you've got to kind of monitor that thing as a coach and make sure that you're not losing this kid because it can happen if he's not having some successes along the way."

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com expects Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree to be ready for the regular-season opener after both participated in practice at full speed Tuesday following injury rehabs.

Also from Maiocco: 49ers quarterback Alex Smith feels empowered by the fact that he has earned his place in the starting lineup. Maiocco: "His body language has been different this offseason. He is much more assertive."

More from Maiocco: He would be surprised if the 49ers released Nate Davis. I would put Davis on the bubble given how strongly coach Mike Singletary criticized Davis' work ethic, particularly if the 49ers can find another player more likely to contribute in 2010.

Phil Barber of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says Singletary is more comfortable with Smith than with his backups. Singletary: "I feel good about Alex Smith. I feel very good about where he's at. I think we have to do a great job of protecting our starting quarterback. When it comes to David Carr, I think David Carr is a guy that I could grow to feel comfortable with. I think he's a guy that has a good command of the offense. I think he understands, I just think that he's still thinking a lot and he's still having to get the rhythm and all the other things, but I think David Carr, I could grow to feel comfortable with him."

Dan Brown of the San Jose Mercury News says Smith showed anger during a recent practice, another indication the quarterback is more comfortable. Smith: "When I was young and kind of thrown out there, I felt like I still had to earn it," Smith said. "Even though I was the starting quarterback, I still felt like I had to earn my place. There's no hesitation for me now. I've gone through a lot. This is the opportunity I've been waiting for and I'm going to take advantage of it."

Kevin Lynch of Niner Insider says the 49ers' coaches have high praise for rookie linebacker NaVorro Bowman. Lynch: "Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky said the Penn State grad can correct a mistake almost instantly, and Bowman, with his resonate voice and strong demeanor, seems to possess a wisdom well beyond his years."

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says former Seahawks cornerback Josh Wilson is happy to be heading home to Maryland as a member of the Baltimore Ravens. Wilson: "I was shocked. It’s a business decision. But for me, it’s the best business decision I could have gotten."

Also from Farnsworth: notes from Seahawks practice, including one about veteran safety Lawyer Milloy singing "Kumbaya" on the sideline after an on-field fight.

Rod Mar of seahawks.com offers photos from the team's recent trip to Minnesota, including one of Matt Hasselbeck and Brett Favre catching up before the game.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says Leroy Hill's paycut with Seattle represented a best-case scenario for the linebacker because the team would have released him pending additional league sanction for off-field troubles.

Also from O'Neil: Roy Lewis could be the big winner for Seattle after the team traded Wilson.

Percy Allen of the Seattle Times passes along comments from Seahawks coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider regarding the team's recent moves. They said the Wilson trade came down to the Ravens' need for a cornerback and the Seahawks' belief in some of their young corners, notably Walter Thurmond. Schneider also pointed to the fact that Wilson has the potential to leave as a free agent after the 2010 season. Left unsaid: why the Seahawks weren't interested in paying Wilson beyond 2010, and why they were willing to part with a starter for nothing in return this season. Looks like Leon Washington could be returning kicks.

John Morgan of Field Gulls sees no upside to the Wilson trade. Morgan: "Seattle just turned what every team hopes a second-round pick can become into a fifth-round pick. The Seahawks secondary is young and deep. The recovery of Walter Thurmond and emergence of Roy Lewis means Seattle is dealing from a position of strength. That, Wilson's looming contract, and a narrow commitment to 'building through the draft' is the justification for this move. A realistic evaluation of Wilson's talent and the true value of a fifth-round pick is the damning reality. Seattle is worse today than it was yesterday. Much worse. And for what? Another Owen Schmitt, Will Herring, David Kirtman or Jeb Huckeba?" I also have trouble seeing how the Seahawks improved by subtracting one of their better corners.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says 2009 second-round draft choice Cody Brown has much to prove heading into the Cardinals' final exhibition game of 2010. Somers: "One high draft pick who need to show something is outside linebacker Cody Brown, a second-round pick in 2009. Brown missed his rookie year with a dislocated wrist and hasn't made an impact this preseason."

Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic says undrafted free agent Stephen Williams is looking like a potential steal for the Cardinals. McManaman: "The Cardinals had him rated as a potential third-round pick, but they didn't draft him, either. Instead, they were the one team that reached out and offered him a free-agent contract with a chance to make the team. And it appears he has done that."

Also from McManaman: Derek Anderson will start at quarterback for the Cardinals on Thursday night, leaving Matt Leinart as the backup again. Also: "Tight end Ben Patrick practiced for a second consecutive day and did well in his return from a dislocated kneecap suffered early in training camp. (Coach Ken) Whisenhunt said Patrick will get limited playing time Thursday but he's encouraged by what he's seen from Patrick."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says the Cardinals are making Greg Toler work for the starting job at right cornerback. Toler: "They just don’t want you to be complacent. They don’t want you just thinking you’re going to come in and slide into the position because then you might just slide back on what you do."

Also from Urban: Whisenhunt has long wanted an indoor practice facility, but for now he'll have to settle for holding occasional practices at Arizona State University.

The St. Louis Rams need not look far to see what can happen when an overmatched NFL team mishandles a quarterback drafted first overall.

The division-rival San Francisco 49ers are still trying to recoup their investment in 2005 first overall choice Alex Smith.

The Rams probably will not change offensive coordinators every year for the next five seasons, as the 49ers improbably did in Smith's first five, but they still need to be careful with rookie No. 1 overall choice Sam Bradford.

Early indications suggest the Rams would like to follow the plan Philadelphia took with Donovan McNabb back in 1999, when Rams offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur was coaching the Eagles' tight ends. Doug Pederson opened as the Eagles starter that season, allowing McNabb to ease into the starting role. McNabb got some reps off the bench before taking over as the starter in November.

In setting expectations for Bradford, I looked at production by rookie quarterbacks since 1970. The list featured several older players, some with experience in the CFL or USFL. I filtered out those players by focusing only on quarterbacks who were 25 or younger as NFL rookies. A quick look at them by games started:

16-game starters

There were only five, in part because the NFL season spanned only 14 games until 1978.

Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Rick Mirer and David Carr pulled it off. All but Flacco, chosen 18th overall by Baltimore in 2008, were drafted among the top three overall choices in their class.

The ones who took the most sacks as rookies -- Carr (76) and Mirer (47) were the only ones to absorb more than 32 -- had the poorest careers. That might suggest the players had a hard time recovering from the beatings they took early in their careers. It also might reveal something about the quarterbacks' ability to process information quickly enough to get rid of the football before trouble arrives.

Offensive lines tend to take disproportionate blame for sacks, in my view. Quarterbacks are often responsible for them as well.

11- to 15-game starters

None in this group threw even 20 touchdown passes in a season (Manning and Dan Marino are the only rookie quarterbacks since 1970 to reach that barrier as rookies).

We should expect modest production from Bradford even if he starts most of the Rams' games.

Ben Roethlisberger was a rarity among this group by completing at least 60 percent of his passes, but rookie completion percentage wasn't a reliable indicator for career success overall.

Some quarterbacks ranking lower played when teams ran higher-risk offenses and rules made it tougher to complete passes.

6- to 10-game starters

Hall of Famers Marino, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw and Dan Fouts fell into this group.

This group featured a solid middle class headed by McNabb, Eli Manning, Bernie Kosar, Jim McMahon, Neil Lomax, Steve Beuerlein, Pat Haden, Doug Williams and Rodney Peete.

There were a few disappointments -- Ryan Leaf, Cade McNown, Kyle Boller and the 49ers' Smith, who still has a shot at redemption -- but this seems like a reasonable number of starts for a quarterback drafted early.

Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman fell into this category last season.

3- to 5-game starters

Some high picks fell into this category, including Bert Jones, Vinny Testaverde, David Klingler, Tony Eason, Rex Grossman, Akili Smith, Jay Cutler, Tommy Maddox, Jim Everett and 1984 supplemental choice Steve Young.

This group produced relatively few true stars, however. Young was an obvious exception. Boomer Esiason was a good value.

In looking at the list, though, my sense is that a really good quarterback -- particularly one chosen early -- will start more than five games if he gets a chance to start at all in his first season.

2 or fewer starts

Hundreds of rookie quarterbacks failed to start a game and 69 did not attempt a pass. The latter group featured Tony Romo and in-the-news quarterbacks Kevin Kolb and Charlie Whitehurst, but Daunte Culpepper, the 11th player chosen in 1999, stood out as a rare high draft choice among the group.

Unlike Carson Palmer, who sat out his rookie season as a high choice in Cincinnati, Bradford is going to play as a rookie unless he gets hurt.

It's reasonable to expect Bradford to start at least half the games, putting up modest numbers. He'll probably struggle some, and that is OK, but it's a bad sign if the Alex Smith comparisons apply by season's end. Smith tossed one touchdown pass with 11 interceptions as a rookie. He wasn't ready and his supporting cast gave him little chance. That's a bad combination.

The Colts' loss to the Saints prevented Peyton Manning from joining seven other quarterbacks with undefeated Super Bowl records in multiple starts.

The chart shows those seven quarterbacks, including 49ers great Joe Montana (4-0).

The Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger, 2-0 as a Super Bowl starter, has the best chance of joining Troy Aikman in the 3-0 club, which once featured Tom Brady.

Terry Bradshaw (4-0), Montana and Aikman held a significant advantage over more recent Super Bowl quarterbacks. Each played before salary-cap implications prevented their teams from stockpiling talent. The cap was in place while Aikman was playing, but the Cowboys weren't affected as much until later in the decade.

Eric Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune says the Seahawks made progress last season with their inside zone running game, something that could carry over to 2010. The outside zone runs weren't as successful. Williams: "Part of the reason for that is the type of running backs the Seahawks have. Justin Forsett is a guy who cannot consistently threaten the edge of a defense because he does not have elite speed, like Tennessee’s Chris Johnson. So it's hard for him to force defenses to commit to getting to the edge of a defense in order for the offense to get the stretch it needs to create cutback lanes. ... Secondly, the Seahawks consistently struggled to get the cut blocks on the backside of the play in order to create those running lanes on the backside."

Scott Wolf of the Los Angeles Daily News says Rocky Seto has left USC's coaching staff to join Pete Carroll in Seattle as the Seahawks' quality-control coach for defense. Quality-control coaches generally break down lots of game video featuring opponents, charting each play by a long list of parameters. That allows teams to create the situation-specific video cutups coaches and players rely upon for preparation.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times offers a Seahawks-related chat transcript. O'Neil: "Walter Jones is still attempting to come back. He wants to play. Will he play? No one knows. But if he doesn't come back, Sean Locklear isn't the default option there. The offensive line is going to be reshuffled, and I wouldn't expect to see anyone penciled in for certain at any spot except Max Unger at center. And Alex Gibbs hasn't said that Unger is for sure a center, so perhaps even that conclusion is premature."

John Morgan of Field Gulls explains why the Seahawks paid for allowing a higher completion percentage under Jim Mora. They simply weren't able to produce enough interceptions to offset yardage gains.

Patrick Hooper of 49ers.com looks at Ahmad Brooks' evolution within the 49ers' defense. Coach Mike Singletary: "When you think about it, [Brooks] came to us as an inside linebacker, not really a rush guy. But you begin to see the skill, the speed, that ability to come off the edge, and you go, 'Wow, we need to do something different here.' I think he's found his niche. He is such a talented guy."

Kevin Lynch of Niner Insider assesses Jeff Ulbrich's value to the 49ers as a mentor for Patrick Willis and as an overall team player. Ulbrich, now the Seahawks' assistant special-teams coach, was what Lynch calls "the non-star who gives his all, does his best and leads."

Matt Maiocco of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says the 49ers' resources are better allocated for re-signing their own players than adding expensive veteran free agents. Maiocco: "After next season, Vernon Davis, Manny Lawson and Dashon Goldson are among the scheduled free agents. ... Alex Smith is entering the final year of his contract. If his production takes another significant leap in 2010, he could solidify his long-term spot as a starter and attract a sizable contract extension. Inside linebackers are generally among the lowest-paid players on the team, but Patrick Willis figures to become the highest-paid defender in team history with his next contract. Willis' current deal expires after the 2011 season."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee continues his look at draft prospects the 49ers might consider.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic checks in with former Cardinals safety Aaron Francisco, now with the AFC champion Colts. Francisco's wife hung a picture showing her husband trailing the Steelers' Santonio Holmes as Holmes scores the decisive touchdown in Super Bowl XLIII. Francisco: "It's up there only because she wants to have a Super Bowl memory. I was kind of upset just because I didn't want to see that picture again, but it's everywhere. I don't necessarily look at it, though. I just kind of walk by without glancing."

Also from Somers: Kurt Warner feels great about his decision to retire.

More from Somers: a look at the Cardinals' defensive line, where 35-year-old Bryan Robinson remains the best option at nose tackle. Somers: "The Cardinals need to add a pass rusher, either at linebacker or end. If it's a defensive end, he could play in nickel and dime packages when the club goes to a four-man front. It's doubtful the club would spend the money necessary to attract a free agent such as end Julius Peppers, but the position could be addressed in the first round of the draft."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com looks at the difficulties associated with replacing legendary quarterbacks as Arizona's Matt Leinart prepares to succeed Warner. Urban: "Brian Griese was 6-10 in his first season as Broncos’ starter the year after John Elway left, although he did go 11-5 the season after that. Jeff Garcia came in for Steve Young in 1999 as the 49ers stumbled to a 4-12 record. Two years later, Garcia had the Niners with 12 wins and a division title. Quincy Carter tried to follow Troy Aikman in Dallas, but the Cowboys were already aging (5-11 in Aikman’s last season of 2000) and Carter was never a genuine quarterback prospect anyway."

Also from Urban: Not even Warner can tell whether Leinart will succeed.

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Bears' hiring of former Rams coach Mike Martz looks like a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Miklasz: "The bottom line is this: Smith and Martz and Cutler all need each other in the worst way. They have nothing left to lose, really. And that’s why this is worth taking a chance."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says during his latest chat that the Rams might not be the only potential destination for Isaac Bruce if the 49ers receiver goes into coaching. Bruce was expected to speak with Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo. Thomas: "I think once Spagnuolo met Bruce, he would love the guy. I think Spags and Bruce would click on several levels. But I still have to wonder if Bruce, after 16 seasons in the league, really wants to put in the 16-hour days of an NFL assistant. Now that Mike Martz has taken the Chicago job, I wonder if Bruce somehow ends up in the Windy City."