NFL Nation: AFC South
Contract status of '12 first-round draft picks
The minicamp schedule includes both rookies and veterans unless specifically noted:
Arizona Cardinals
OTA: May 22-24, May 29-31, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Atlanta Falcons
OTA: May 29-31, June 5-7, June 12-15
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 19-21
Baltimore Ravens
OTA: May 22-24, May 29-31, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Buffalo Bills
OTA: May 29, May 31-June 1, June 5, June 7-8, June 11-12, June 14-15
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 19-21
Carolina Panthers
OTA: May 22-24, May 30-June 1, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Chicago Bears
OTA: May 22-24, May 29-31, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Cincinnati Bengals
OTA: May 22-24, May 29-31, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Cleveland Browns
OTA: May 22-24, May 30-June 1, June 12-15
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 5-7
Dallas Cowboys
OTA: May 22-24, May 29-31, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 4-6 (rookies), June 12-14
Denver Broncos
OTA: May 21-23, May 30-June 1, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Detroit Lions
OTA: May 21-22, May 24, May 29, May 31-June 1, June 4-5, June 7-8
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Green Bay Packers
OTA: May 21-23, May 30-June 1, June 5-8
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Houston Texans
OTA: May 21-22, May 24, May 29-31, June 4-7
Minicamp: June 12-14
Indianapolis Colts
OTA: May 15-17, May 22-24, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 4-6 (rookies), June 12-14
Jacksonville Jaguars
OTA: May 15-17, May 22-24, May 29-June 1
Minicamp: May 4-6 (rookies), June 12-14
Kansas City Chiefs
OTA: May 21-22, May 24, May 29, May 31-June 1, June 4-5, June 7-8
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Miami Dolphins
OTA: May 22-24, May 29-31, June 11-14
Minicamp: May 4-6 (rookies), June 19-21
Minnesota Vikings
OTA: May 29-31, June 5-7, June 11-14
Minicamp: May 4-6 (rookies), June 19-21
New England Patriots
OTA: May 21-22, May 24, May 29-31, June 4-5, June 7-8
Minicamp: May 10-12 (rookies), June 12-14
New Orleans Saints
OTA: May 22-24, May 29-31, June 11-14
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 5-7
New York Giants
OTA: May 23-24, May 30-June 1, June 4-5, June 7-8
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
New York Jets
OTA: May 22-24, May 29-31, June 4, June 6-7
Minicamp: May 4-6 (rookies), June 12-14
Oakland Raiders
OTA: May 14-15, May 17, May 21-22, May 24, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Philadelphia Eagles
OTA: May 22-24, May 30-June 1, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 12-14 (rookies), June 12-14
Pittsburgh Steelers
OTA: May 22-24, May 29-31, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 4-6 (rookies), June 12-14
St. Louis Rams
OTA: May 15-16, May 18, May 22-23, May 25, June 5-8
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
San Diego Chargers
OTA: May 29-31, June 5-7, June 11-14
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 19-21
San Francisco 49ers
OTA: May 22-24, May 29-31, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Seattle Seahawks
OTA: May 22-24, May 30-June 1, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 11-13 (rookies), June 12-14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
OTA: May 15, May 17-18, May 21-22, May 24, June 4-5, June 7-8
Minicamp: May 4-6 (rookies), June 12-14
Tennessee Titans
OTA: May 30-June 1, June 5-7, June 11-12, June 14-15
Minicamp: May 11-12 (rookies), June 19-21
Washington Redskins
OTA: May 21, May 23-24, May 29-31, June 4-7
Minicamp: May 4-6 (rookies), June 12-14
A punter? Jaguars reached in third round
Cal Sport Media/AP ImagesUsing the 70th pick on Cal punter Bryan Anger hurts the Jaguars more than it helps them.The Jacksonville Jaguars have been accused (occasionally by me) of not doing well enough in assessing how the rest of the league's teams value some players they draft.
Some personnel people around the league say the Jaguars simply don’t care about that. In a way, I admire them for it. Don’t be overly concerned and influenced by the forces around you, by the competition. Do your own thing. Bank on your convictions.
But when it comes to taking Cal punter Bryan Anger in the third round, the Jaguars absolutely should care about league context.
I know at least one other team had him rated as a fifth-rounder.
Anger is first punter to go in the top 100 picks since 1995, when Todd Sauerbrun went in the second round to Chicago, 56th overall. (Correction: In 2005, Kansas City took Dustin Colquitt in the third round, 99th overall. Apologies.)
There is a reason for that.
It’s important that you don’t punt terribly. But it’s not so important that you punt fantastically, certainly not important enough that you sacrifice the chance to improve at a position that could be on the field for three downs a game.
“I think it will be evident when you get a chance to see him punt: He’s got a strong history which I feel will transfer to this level in helping us defensively with the yardage we can gain in field position,” general manager Gene Smith said.
“… He’s the player in that round at your pick that you feel can upgrade your football team. I think that’s an easy decision for me, to get a starter in the third round.”
Calling a punter a starter is beyond a stretch.
The Jaguars' defense played 970 plays in 2011. The Jaguars' offense played 958 plays. The Jaguars punted 99 times.
“I think it’s first downs that you gain,” Smith said in a further defense of the pick. “And I feel like in the third round it’s not a round that you always get proven starters.”
Really?
In Smith’s three previous drafts, he picked four times in the third round. Guard Will Rackley, defensive tackle Terrance Knighton and cornerback Derek Cox are starters. The only non-starter, defensive tackle D’Anthony Smith, has missed his first two seasons with injuries.
2012 NFL Draft: Rounds 2-3
• Clayton: Day 2 winners, losers
• Sando: St. Louis' defining day
• Kuharsky: Jags reach, and poorly
• Seifert: How the Lions operate
• Graziano: Philly's confident draft
• Hensley: Pitt protecting Big Ben
• Yasinskas: Konz bolsters Atlanta line
• Williamson: Elway gets his QB again
• Walker: Jets hoping for home runs
• First round photo gallery
• Players react on Twitter | On radio
• NFL Nation | Draft home | Tracker 
The Jaguars cut Turk after five games, going with Nick Harris the rest of the way. Harris was 3 yards, and 5.1 net yards, better per punt than Turk had been.
A longer punt is easier to cover, so this is too simple.
Nevertheless, here is my counterproposal to drafting Anger 70th:
Jacksonville uses an average punter and boosts its net average to what was the midpoint for 2011. By my calculations, that would give the Jaguars an extra 15.5 net yards a game. Then use the 70th pick on an offensive lineman who, as part of a better scheme, could help cut the Jaguars’ sack yardage in half. That would give the team an extra 10.3 yards a game, and also help young quarterback Blaine Gabbert not worry so much about getting crunched.
The overall gain from my plan -- not just estimating that the average that will come with a big leg, but actually factoring in context -- would be better.
The goal is not to punt, and you drafted a punter. That was the first thing a reporter in Jacksonville said to coach Mike Mularkey after the pick.
“And hold, hold for extra points,” Mularkey said. “If you want to write about him, he’s a really good holder for extra points and field goals, and he just so happens to be a difference-maker when it comes to punting.”
Oh, he holds, too? Well, that changes everything.
No, actually, any guy on offense with good hands, starting with your backup quarterback, should be able to function as a holder.
Maybe Anger is the league’s best punter and holder for 15 years.
Even if he is, it says here there will be at least three dozen players among the picks after Anger who have more impactful careers than he will. And that’s a modest 20 percent of the 183 guys we’re talking about. If the Jaguars missed on him by two rounds, maybe it’s 64 players. It could be more.
Are the Jaguars, coming off a 5-11 season, good enough that they can pass on such potential people? They are not. Perhaps are they expecting Gabbert to be terrible again, knowing they’ll be punting a ton and being proactive?
They need more guys who can score touchdowns or stop touchdowns. Get more guys who can get you first downs and you’ll punt less, kicking more field goals and scoring more touchdowns. Get more guys who can stop a third-down run or break up a third-down pass and you’ll be fielding punts, not covering them.
Do those things and getting a few additional yards when you have to kick the ball away doesn’t mean so much.
Know where you have a chance to add guys who fit that bill?
With the third-round pick you just used on a punter.
Too often the Jaguars are a punching bag or a punch line.
This time, they deserve it.
Here is the "Monday Night Football" schedule for the 2012 season (all times Eastern).
Week 1: Sept. 10, 7:00 PM, Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Week 1: Sept. 10, 10:15 PM, San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Week 2: Sept. 17, 8:30 PM, Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons
Week 3: Sept. 24, 8:30 PM, Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Week 4: Oct. 1, 8:30 PM, Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys
Week 5: Oct. 8, 8:30 PM, Houston Texans at New York Jets
Week 6: Oct. 15, 8:30 PM, Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
Week 7: Oct. 22, 8:30 PM, Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Week 8: Oct. 29, 8:30 PM, San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Week 9: Nov. 5, 8:30 PM, Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
Week 10: Nov. 12, 8:30 PM, Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 11: Nov. 19, 8:30 PM, Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
Week 12: Nov. 26, 8:30 PM, Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Week 13: Dec. 3, 8:30 PM, New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Week 14: Dec. 10, 8:30 PM, Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Week 15: Dec. 17, 8:30 PM, New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Week 16: Dec. 22, 8:30 PM, Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots
Home: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers
Away: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks
2. New York Jets
Home: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers
Away: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks
3. Miami Dolphins
Home: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks
Away: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers
4. Buffalo Bills 
Home: Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks
Away: Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens 
Home: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants
Away: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
Away: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants
3. Cincinnati Bengals 
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants
Away: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
4. Cleveland Browns 
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
Away: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans 
Home: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
Away: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions
2. Tennessee Titans 
Home: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions
Away: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, San Diego Chargers, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 
Home: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions
Away: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Oakland Raiders, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
4. Indianapolis Colts 
Home: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
Away: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions
AFC WEST
1. Denver Broncos 
Home: Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Away: Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers
2. San Diego Chargers 
Home: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers
Away: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Oakland Raiders 
Home: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Away: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers
4. Kansas City Chiefs 
Home: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers
Away: Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC EAST
1. New York Giants 
Home: Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
Away: Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
2. Philadelphia Eagles 
Home: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
Away: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Dallas Cowboys 
Home: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
Away: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
4. Washington Redskins 
Home: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
Away: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers 
Home: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
Away: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts
2. Detroit Lions 
Home: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts
Away: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
3. Chicago Bears 
Home: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts
Away: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
4. Minnesota Vikings 
Home: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
Away: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Redskins, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints 
Home: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers
Away: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders
2. Atlanta Falcons 
Home: Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders
Away: Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers
3. Carolina Panthers 
Home: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders
Away: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Home: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, St. Louis Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers
Away: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco 49ers 
Home: Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins
Away: Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, New York Jets
2. Arizona Cardinals 
Home: St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins
Away: St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots, New York Jets
3. Seattle Seahawks 
Home: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, New York Jets
Away: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins
4. St. Louis Rams 
Home: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
Away: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins
The NFL's transformation into a pass-happy league has sent teams scrambling for ways to keep up defensively.
2012 NFL Draft
Rd. 1: April 26, 8 p.m. ET
Rd. 2-3: April 27, 7 p.m. ET
Rd. 4-7: April 28, Noon ET
Radio City Music Hall
New York City
Draft order | Draft home
• Mel Kiper's latest mock 
• Todd McShay's latest mock
• Mel Kiper's Big Board
• Todd McShay's Top 32
• Blog Network mock draft 2.0
• Draft Machine
AFC West blogger Bill Williamson snapped up three of them for the division he covers. Six other defensive linemen and 3-4 outside linebackers found homes elsewhere in the first round.
Offensive linemen (seven), defensive backs (five) and wide receivers (five) accounted for most of the remaining first-round selections.
In keeping with the pass-oriented theme, Alabama's Trent Richardson was the lone running back selected, landing in Cleveland with the fourth overall choice.
And, of course, we kicked off the mock with a couple of quarterbacks.
Analysis: They look at Luck and see a young guy who reminds them of the quarterback the franchise selected first overall in 1998. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Not much mystery here. The Redskins traded three first-round picks and a second-round pick to get to this spot, from which they believe they're taking their next franchise quarterback. The only way they don't take Griffin here is if the Colts take him, in which case the Redskins will happily take Luck. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: The Vikings would love to trade down a few spots, presumably with a team that wants to draft Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill. But barring a deal, Kalil is the best player remaining on the board and the Vikings just so happen to need a long-term starter at left tackle. We're not buying (yet) any of general manager Rick Spielman's posturing about LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Not buying the speculation that the Browns will take Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill here. The Browns tipped their hand when coach Pat Shurmur and general manager Tom Heckert skipped Tannehill's pro day to watch Richardson, the draft's only elite running back who can be the centerpiece of Cleveland's offense. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Bucs could be considering Richardson and he's a possibility if he stays on the board. But Claiborne is the top cornerback in this draft. The Bucs need a long-term replacement for veteran Ronde Barber and could need a short-term replacement for Aqib Talib, who could face prison time or a league suspension. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: The Rams are eager to find weapons for quarterback Sam Bradford. They had a tough time addressing that area during free agency despite an aggressive approach that led to deals with Cortland Finnegan, Scott Wells and others. The last time the Rams drafted a WR sixth overall, they landed Torry Holt. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: If he catches on quickly and can have an impact as a pass-rusher, Ingram can be the final piece for a very good defense. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Tannehill shot up the draft boards fast and may be a tad overrated at No. 8. But Miami needs a quarterback of the future in the worst way, and this is the best of what's left. Both Matt Moore and David Garrard have one year left on their contracts, leaving it open for Tannehill to take over in 2013. (James Walker)
Analysis: There's a common assumption the Panthers are locked in on getting a defensive tackle. That could end up happening. But they're open to all options and Kuechly might be the best player available. This team needs help anywhere it can add it on defense. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: Going receiver here is the sexy pick. But getting an offensive tackle to protect QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's blind side is the smart pick. Reiff received great coaching at Iowa, which has become Offensive Tackle U. He closes Buffalo's revolving door at left tackle for the foreseeable future. (James Walker)
Analysis: The Chiefs would be thrilled to see Poe on the board at 11. He is the best player available who fits their biggest need. Poe has a chance to be a dynamic player on a defense full of young talent. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The Seahawks ranked fifth in takeaways, seventh in points allowed and ninth in yards allowed last season, but their pass rush was lacking. Coples would give them a badly needed pass-rusher opposite Chris Clemons, who had 11 of the team's 33 sacks during the 2011 season. Linebacker is another need position. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Cardinals could also use an offensive tackle and possibly another receiver. Michael Floyd was a consideration here. But in Upshaw, the team would be targeting a potential No. 1 pass-rusher, providing welcome support for promising youngsters Sam Acho and O'Brien Schofield. The Cardinals have no second-round pick, and pass-rush help is at a premium. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: They were hoping Upshaw would fall to them, as he'd upgrade the pass rush instantly and could make Anthony Spencer expendable before long. But with Upshaw gone one pick before, the Cowboys stick with the national champs and take a safety to upgrade their biggest 2011 weakness: the secondary. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: Michael Brockers was tempting, but the pick here is Cox because he provides a pass rush from the interior of the defensive line right away and could be more NFL-ready than Brockers at this point. The Eagles are a win-now team that relies on its defensive line to pressure the passer, and Cox fits nicely into their interior line rotation. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: The Jets would like to go defense here under head coach Rex Ryan. But with Alabama DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw and safety Mark Barron both off the board, drafting Floyd is a good fallback option. Floyd has a chance to start from Day 1 opposite Santonio Holmes and gives quarterback Mark Sanchez a much-needed weapon. (James Walker)
Analysis: The Bengals need a starting right guard, and DeCastro is the best guard in the draft. Smart and fundamentally sound, DeCastro is one of the safest picks this year and would extend the Bengals' recent good fortune in the draft. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: Mercilus is the best pass-rusher on the board at No. 18 and the Chargers would be happy to take him. He could be a slight over-draft, but he has big league potential. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: Coach Lovie Smith expressed confidence last week in left tackle J'Marcus Webb, but rarely will you hear a coach say otherwise until he has an upgraded replacement. Webb was penalized 15 times last season and gave up 12 sacks, according to Pro Football Focus. Martin would provide an upgrade at a key position. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: They can go many different directions, but Kamerion Wimbley doesn't solve their pass-rush issues by himself, and Perry can help. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Cincinnati has done a great job in bolstering the depth at cornerback in free agency, signing Jason Allen and Adam Jones. But the Bengals, who eventually need to replace veteran Nate Clements, can't pass on the second-best cornerback falling into their laps. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Browns need speed and a deep threat. Look no further than Hill, who averaged 29.3 yards per catch last season (albeit 28 receptions) and ran faster than Baylor's Kendall Wright at the NFL combine. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: ESPN.com colleagues chose Gilmore in my absence based on an obvious need the Lions have at cornerback. Starter Eric Wright departed via free agency, and the Lions' pass defense collapsed in the second half of 2011. General manager Martin Mayhew doesn't draft for need, but Gilmore would address a big one. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Inside linebacker is a big need for the Steelers after they released James Farrior. Hightower excelled in Alabama's 3-4 defense and was the unquestioned leader on the nation's top defense. Seems like a perfect fit. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Broncos would gladly snag Brockers. Defensive tackle is, by far, their most pressing need, and the versatile Brockers is a good value at No. 25. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: Randle's size will make him a nice target for Matt Schaub and the Texans, and he brings a lot of upside to an offense that's already quite good. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: The Patriots need athleticism on defense and the ability to rush the passer from the outside. Branch can help replace the combined 20 sacks New England lost this offseason with the departures of DEs Mark Anderson and Andre Carter. (James Walker)
Analysis: In my absence, ESPN.com colleagues chose Konz, the draft's top center, knowing that veteran Jeff Saturday is likely a one-year bridge from departed starter Scott Wells. General manager Ted Thompson will almost certainly draft a center, but he might wait until a later round knowing he has 2012 insurance in Saturday. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: The Ravens have a history of top prospects falling to them in the first round. Their luck would continue with Glenn, an athletic and versatile blocker who would start immediately at left guard. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: Receiver was the team's obvious top need heading into free agency. Adding Randy Moss and Mario Manningham bought some flexibility, but Moss represents a short-term investment. The 49ers could use another young receiver to grow with Alex Smith and, eventually, Colin Kaepernick. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Patriots were surprised such a top-end talent is available at No. 31. Sure, Jenkins comes with some character concerns. But New England's strong locker-room leadership will make sure it gets the best out of Jenkins, who has the physical ability to develop into a legit No. 1 corner. (James Walker)
Analysis: This was a tough call, because Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones just looks so much like a Giants pick. He's a super-athletic, high-upside pass-rusher from Tom Coughlin's alma mater. I mean, if Adams weren't on the board, this would have been a slam dunk. And the Giants still could go this way, or with Nebraska LB Lavonte David or Stanford TE Coby Fleener. But there's nothing wrong with Adams' upside potential, either. He becomes the Giants' starting right tackle right away, and if Will Beatty doesn't pan out, Adams has the ability to someday play on the left side. (Dan Graziano)
As he leaves, Ryans reviews the division
Paul Kuharsky/ESPN.comDeMeco Ryans gets some work in at the D1 workout facility in Franklin, Tenn.Ryans is in great spirits, and excited about the opportunity to man the middle and lead for the Eagles.
He’s not sad, but he was reflective about the idea of leaving, just one year into what the Texans intend to be a long stretch of playoff-caliber seasons.
Two key players that helped the team break through are gone, with Ryans traded and right tackle Eric Winston released to help alleviate salary-cap issues.
“We've been building a team so long, and we finally got there,” Ryans said. “We made it to the playoffs because the backups were good, the seconds and thirds were good enough to go in, and it wasn't a drop-off. So, that's sort of the hardship of being so good, when you have so many good players you can't pay everybody.”
I was in a super multi-media mood.
So I offer two other features:
- The picture above, where Ryans is focused on a guy at a podium who is calling out signals and dropping a tennis ball to simulate a snap, so players can work on their get-offs.
- This short audio clip. As he heads out of the AFC South, I asked him five questions about the division. You’ll hear shoutouts to the Jaguars' backfield (but not the city they play in), as well as Titans right guard David Stewart.
Houston Texans
Key additions: None.
Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).
Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.
Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.
What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.
But the Texans are not without need.
While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.
Indianapolis Colts
Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).
Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.
So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got – starting with a nose tackle.
On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.
What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.
They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.
Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).
Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold onto players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.
They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.
What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.
The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.
The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.
Tennessee Titans
Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.
Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.
Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.
Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.
What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.
Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?
ESPN.com IllustrationMight Tim Tebow end up in one of these uniforms when the dust settles following the Denver Broncos' acquisition of Peyton Manning?Where Tim Tebow might land
Coming on the heels of Peyton Manning deciding to sign with the Denver Broncos, our NFL bloggers examine potential landing spots for Tim Tebow, if Denver trades or releases the polarizing quarterback.
| Team | Analysis | |
|---|---|---|
| MEDIUM PROBABILITY | ||
 | David Garrard's signing probably lowers the chance of Tebow landing in Miami. But with an unpredictable front office and ownership, you never know for sure. -- James Walker | |
 | There's no room for Tebow on the roster, but you can't count the Patriots out. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels drafted Tebow with a first-round pick in Denver. McDaniels believed in Tebow before anyone else. -- JW | |
 | I don't see it, but Gary Kubiak likes to develop quarterbacks and he doesn't have a third after the team cut Matt Leinart. -- Paul Kuharsky | |
 | Everyone sees the connection. He's a local guy. The Jaguars could use a ticket-sales boost. But owner Shad Khan would have to force Tebow on general manager Gene Smith. -- PK | |
 | Longtime Aaron Rodgers backup Matt Flynn has departed via free agency, and there is some question about whether No. 3 quarterback Graham Harrell is ready to make the jump to No. 2. Coach Mike McCarthy praised Tebow prior to the 2010 draft, but this seems an unlikely pairing. -- Kevin Seifert | |
| LOW PROBABILITY | ||
 | Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg can never be ruled out when an intriguing QB project is on the market. And Tebow would be a backup who has started and won NFL games, which is what the Eagles are looking for. If he were a cheap free agent, maybe, but hard to see them trading anything for him. -- Dan Graziano | |
 | Kevin Kolb and John Skelton are the top two quarterbacks. The Cardinals need to find out what they have in Kolb, first and foremost. -- Mike Sando | |
 | The 49ers traded up in the second round of the 2011 draft for a mobile quarterback, Colin Kaepernick. It's doubtful they would suddenly turn to Tebow. -- MS | |
 | The Rams are moving forward with Sam Bradford as their starting quarterback. They would be better off with a more experienced backup. -- MS | |
 | Pete Carroll values mobility in a quarterback, but the position appears set for now with Matt Flynn, Tarvaris Jackson and Josh Portis, a third-stringer the team would like to develop. -- MS | |
 | New general manager Phil Emery has assembled a quarterback depth chart of Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell and Josh McCown. -- KS | |
 | Matthew Stafford and Shaun Hill are entrenched as the top two quarterbacks on the depth chart. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan is one of the best QB coaches in the league, but it's unlikely he'll get his hands on Tebow. -- KS | |
 | Coach Leslie Frazier is committed to Christian Ponder, Joe Webb and Sage Rosenfels as his top three quarterbacks. The Vikings don't have the time necessary to spend developing Tebow. -- KS | |
 | It's hard to imagine because the Saints have Drew Brees at quarterback. But coach Sean Payton has such an innovative offensive mind that he could probably come up with a way to get Tebow on the field for a few plays a game. -- Pat Yasinskas | |
 | Coach Chan Gailey runs a spread offense, but this one is too pass heavy for Tebow. Buffalo also has a gimmick player in WR/QB Brad Smith. -- JW | |
 | The Jets have enough distractions and don't need to add Tebowmania. The team is committed to Mark Sanchez for at least two more years and recently signed Drew Stanton as the No. 2 quarterback. -- JW | |
 | Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli is a fan of Tebow as a person, but I doubt the Chiefs would be interested in this pairing. -- Bill Williamson | |
 | New Oakland head coach Dennis Allen saw the value of Tebow in 2011 when he was the Broncos' defensive coordinator. But I don't see where this pairing would make sense. -- BW | |
 | Can you imagine Tebow playing with one of his biggest critics in the NFL, Terrell Suggs? I can't either. The Ravens are looking to sign Joe Flacco to a long-term deal, and they repeatedly say they are happy with backup Tyrod Taylor's potential and growth. -- Jamison Hensley | |
 | Cincinnati is set with Andy Dalton as its starter and Bruce Gradkowski as its backup. Dalton was the AFC's best rookie passer, and Gradkowski has proven he can win games in relief. -- JH | |
 | This is the one team in the division that needs an upgrade at quarterback, but the Browns appear ready to go into camp with a quarterback competition between Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace and a rookie draft pick. Plus, team president Mike Holmgren expressed concern about Tebow's mechanics coming out of Florida. -- JH | |
 | The Steelers didn't show Tebow much respect by the defenses they played against him in the playoff game this past season, so I can't imagine they would have him high on their free-agent quarterback list. Pittsburgh hasn't settled on a backup to Ben Roethlisberger, but it'll likely be either Byron Leftwich or Charlie Batch. -- JH | |
 | The backup to Andrew Luck needs to have some of Luck's qualities and have experience beyond what Tebow would bring. -- PK | |
 | They missed on Peyton Manning, but are perfectly happy with Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker as their QBs. Rusty Smith could stick as the third. -- PK | |
| NO CHANCE | ||
 | They're deep at quarterback with Kyle Orton signed to back up Tony Romo. Orton probably still sees Denver-area pro-Tebow billboards in his nightmares. The Cowboys don't need to invite extra controversy. -- DG | |
 | Set at quarterback with a two-time Super Bowl MVP who never misses a game. Kevin Gilbride's offense loves to throw the ball downfield, which isn't a Tebow strength. Up tight against the cap. -- DG | |
 | They're going to draft their QB of the future next month with the second pick in the draft. They don't need Tebowmania breathing down his neck. And can you imagine Mike and Kyle Shanahan changing their offense to fit Tebow the way John Fox and Denver did last season? Me neither. -- DG | |
 | The Falcons are set with Matt Ryan for the next decade or so. They don't use any gimmicks in their offense and they don't want to take the ball out of Ryan's hands. -- PY | |
 | The Panthers have one of the league's top young quarterbacks in Cam Newton. They're hoping they don't have to look for another quarterback for another 12 to 15 years. -- PY | |
 | From a business standpoint, it might make some sense for a franchise that struggles to sell tickets to bring Tebow back to Florida. From a football standpoint, it makes absolutely no sense. New coach Greg Schiano and offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan plan to run a conventional offense. They've already got a drop-back passer in Josh Freeman and they don't want to cause any headaches for a player who needs to bounce back from a rough 2011 season if he really is going to be their franchise quarterback. -- PY | |
 | The Chargers will have no interest in Tebow at all. -- BW | |
“Peyton Manning will meet w Dolphins coach Joe Philbin & Titans coach Mike Munchak during next 3 days, scheduled away from team facilities.”
We’ve arrived, then, at Munchak’s biggest moment in his little over a year as coach of the Titans.
In 2010, he won over Matt Hasselbeck with relative ease.
Little did we know that he would be building off of that sales pitch to one less than a year later for an all-time great.
Munchak is a Hall of Fame player, an up-and-coming coach and an intelligent businessman. He can sell.
Can he outsell John Elway?
Munchak doesn’t have Elway’s personality or Super Bowls, but I think he’s got a shot.
He’s got an offensive coordinator in Chris Palmer who worked with Manning’s brother, Eli, as quarterback coach for the Giants when they beat the Patriots the first time for a Lombardi Trophy.
He’s got a line that might be the best pass protection line Manning’s ever played behind.
He’s got Kenny Britt getting healthy. He’s got a No. 2 receiver in Nate Washington, who got way better when they upgraded to Hasselbeck.
He’s got a dynamic tight end in Jared Cook who finished strong.
He’s got Chris Johnson looking to rebound, who could really benefit from a leap from the passing game.
So long as Munchak can explain how GM Ruston Webster, who was disinclined to chase Manning, has come to terms with Bud Adams’ mandate to go get him, he’s got enough to make a compelling case.
Suzy Kolber and Chris Mortensen debate if Andrew Luck can outshine Peyton Manning in the 2012 season; Marcellus Wiley answers a Facebook question; and Bill Polian shares his thoughts on Manning's departure.
Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET
Houston Texans
Key free agents: OLB Mario Williams, C Chris Myers, G Mike Brisiel, TE Joel Dreessen, K Neil Rackers, CB Jason Allen.
Where they stand: The Texans did well to lock up running back Arian Foster with a long-term deal, which meant they didn’t need to franchise him. But it’s going to be next to impossible to retain Williams. The defense did well without him for 11 games in 2011. But it would still be far better with him than not. He’s in position to demand huge dollars on the open market, where plenty of teams are desperate for a premium pass-rusher. He is the line guy who fits the bill. Myers is a big priority, and while he’s a super system fit who’d like to stay, he can be effective in a lot of places and will be courted. Brisiel is a solid starter, and the backup center, so they’d certainly like to keep him as well.
What to expect: Not much. The team ventured into free agency last year to round out the secondary with cornerback Johnathan Joseph and safety Danieal Manning. But this time around there is little money and their focus will be on trying to lock up guys who are in line to come free in 2012. So that receiver they’ll add could come in the draft instead of in the form of Colts free agent Reggie Wayne or another veteran. They could make some money moves. Receiver/returner Jacoby Jones and inside linebacker DeMeco Ryans currently rate as too pricey.
Indianapolis Colts
Key free agents: WR Pierre Garcon, WR Reggie Wayne, C Jeff Saturday, TE Jacob Tamme, OT Ryan Diem, WR Anthony Gonzalez, G Mike Pollak, LB Philip Wheeler.
Where they stand: They did well to lock up defensive end Robert Mathis, who is sure to do some outside linebacker work as Indy transitions to a 3-4. Beyond that, it may be tough. They’re letting Peyton Manning go to avoid a big bonus and because of health concerns, so Andrew Luck from Stanford will be on his way in. Will they be aggressive in trying to keep Garcon and Saturday to be a help to Luck? If all the receivers go, they are quite thin. And the interior line needs to be rebuilt, so keeping Saturday for another year could help ease the process. New GM Ryan Grigson is an unknown quantity, and he could be more active in free agency than Bill Polian and Chris Polian were.
What to expect: Again, with Grigson in control and Chuck Pagano a first-time head coach, it’s hard to predict. With the holes on the roster, it’s hard to imagine the Colts won’t do at least a bit of shopping in the mid-priced market. If they do, a cornerback, interior offensive lineman, receiver and cornerback rank as top needs. Pagano is connected to a few guys from Baltimore coming free. Linebacker Jarret Johnson and safety/special-teamer Haruki Nakamura could be targets from the Ravens.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key free agents: S Dwight Lowery, DE Jeremy Mincey, CB Rashean Mathis, DE Matt Roth, OT Guy Whimper, QB Luke McCown.
Where they stand: Lowery has to be priority one. They did good work to fix the safety position last year, so they don’t need to be in position to fix it again. Mincey’s value is up with all the ends who were tagged. Mathis is coming off a torn ACL. They should be able to wait with him and get him back late if they want to see if he can mentor a youngster for one year. They should seek a major upgrade on McCown as a fallback behind Blaine Gabbert.
What to expect: They’ve got a new owner with money and plenty of cap room, but have sent out a strong signal they won’t be super-active. Hopefully that still leaves room for big moves with veteran outsiders. Two ideal candidates who would show a real urgency -- Houston’s outside linebacker/ defensive end Mario Williams and San Diego receiver Vincent Jackson. They have to have veteran receiver help. And don’t sleep on cornerback, where they don’t have a clear No. 1 guy and need depth.
Tennessee Titans
Key free agents: CB Cortland Finnegan, DE Jason Jones, G Jake Scott, FB Ahmard Hall, DE William Hayes, LB Barrett Ruud, S Jordan Babineaux.
Where they stand: They franchised safety Michael Griffin and are expected to sign Babineaux as soon as free agency hits. But they’ve told Finnegan they are letting him go and he could land in Dallas, Detroit or even St. Louis. They have enough at corner to go forward. They made a mistake moving Jones to end and should put him back at tackle if they can retain him, but an outsider may value him more. Hayes and Ruud are goners. A guy like Hall is good in the locker room and should rebound from an off year, but as he’s situational he can’t be any sort of priority.
What to expect: They need a pass-rusher above all else. So while I don’t think they will overpay as much as other candidates for Mario Williams, they should at least dip their toe into the water. They are going to move on from Scott and at least tinker with the interior offensive line. Look for them to sign a second-tier guard or center they think can blossom with them. They do not view receiver as the sort of need many outsiders do, but certainly need depth.
Peyton Manning's career with the Indianapolis Colts is over and Chris Mortensen has the scoop, while in "Did You Hear That?" voices from across the NFL weigh in on the news.
Indianapolis Colts fans react to news that the team will release Peyton Manning.
Where will Manning land?
The Colts declined to pay Peyton Manning his $28 million bonus and are set to part ways with their franchise quarterback. Manning is now the most intriguing free agent in NFL history, but he'll hit the market with one big question hovering over him: How's he throwing? It could be some time before a prospective employer has any sure sense of how the nerve regeneration that affects Manning's arm is going and will turn out. Will teams wait? Will they pounce? It'll be incredibly compelling. For now, here's a team-by-team rundown from our NFL bloggers and Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson on the interest level we expect from the rest of the league.
| Team | Analysis | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| NFC EAST by Matt Williamson | ||
| The Cowboys might love to make a splash like signing the future Hall of Fame quarterback -- and the Dallas fan base might be all for this move. But I contend that Tony Romo is a top-10 quarterback in this league and the Cowboys have much bigger needs than quarterback. | Low |
| This would be a cute and cuddly story: the brothers could alternate every other series while also cutting down on their parents' travel costs. But I think we all know that the Super Bowl champs are pretty well set at quarterback. Big bro might end up in New York, but not with the Giants. | No chance |
| For better or worse, the Eagles are married to Michael Vick. Manning will not be playing for Philadelphia this season. It just isn't going to happen. | No chance |
| While Manning isn't a very good fit physically for Mike Shanahan's system and Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill may be better options overall, Washington is certainly an aggressive team that could land Manning. Stranger things have happened. | High |
| NFC WEST by Mike Sando | ||
| Kevin Kolb's $7 million bonus is due March 17. Arizona will probably pay it. | Medium |
| Alex Smith remains unsigned, so anything is possible. But the plan is to bring back Smith and continue developing Colin Kaepernick. | Low |
| Jeff Fisher is committed to Sam Bradford and has much rebuilding to do. | No chance |
| All options are on the table for Seattle. Tarvaris Jackson is the starter for now. | Medium |
| NFC NORTH by Matt Williamson | ||
| Much like the Lions, the Bears are set at quarterback, but have a few other major needs that need addressing. In fact, Jay Cutler somewhat quietly had a fantastic season in 2011 and the change of offensive systems could take him to a new level going forward. | No chance |
| Led by Matthew Stafford, the Lions are an up-and-coming team. But they have some clear needs to get over that hump and also have a few of their own prominent free agents that they need to deal with. | No chance |
| If I were to rank all the NFL teams from 1 to 32 in likelihood of acquiring Manning, Green Bay would be 32nd on that list. The Packers have the best quarterback in the league in Aaron Rodgers and, like Detroit and Chicago, obviously have other needs. | No chance |
| Christian Ponder might benefit a great deal from sitting a year and learning behind Manning, but the chances of that happening seem very low. Ponder is rightfully the Vikings' guy. | Low |
| NFC SOUTH by Pat Yasinskas | ||
| The Falcons are committed to Matt Ryan as their franchise quarterback. He has produced a winning record in each of his first four seasons. He hasn't won a playoff game, but the Falcons aren't about to scrap him for a short-term fix. | No chance |
| The Panthers found the first true franchise quarterback in franchise history last year when they took Cam Newton with the first pick in the draft. The Panthers expect Newton to be their quarterback for the next dozen or so years. | No chance |
| Before the Saints placed the franchise tag on Drew Brees, it was kind of fun to speculate about the possibility of Manning returning to his hometown. But the Saints made sure there's no chance of getting away, so Manning's only chance of returning to New Orleans is to visit his parents and friends. | No chance |
| Manning could give a shot in the arm to a franchise that needs all the help it can get at the box office. But this team isn't looking for a quick fix. In the eyes of ownership, the front office and the coaching staff, Josh Freeman is the franchise quarterback and the Bucs are intent on building their team around him. | No chance |
| AFC EAST by James Walker | ||
| The Bills already gave QB Ryan Fitzpatrick $59 million. They can't afford to invest that type of money with a second quarterback. | No chance |
| The Dolphins have the interest, money and surrounding talent to make Manning-to-Miami a reality. Miami is one of the favorites and eagerly awaits Manning's potential release. | High |
| Peyton Manning as Tom Brady's backup? That's laughable. | No chance |
| In a perfect world, the Jets would like to add a healthy Manning. But they don't have cap room and have already invested in QB Mark Sanchez for at least one more year. | Medium |
| AFC WEST by Bill Williamson | ||
 | I think John Elway would love to work with Peyton Manning. Legends tend to hang with other legends. Manning could be the perfect short-term answer and allow Tim Tebow to get practice polish. | Medium |
| Romeo Crennel has already said the Chiefs would have interest in Manning if he becomes available. This could be Joe Montana all over again. | High |
| The Raiders are married to Carson Palmer. They have more pressing needs and they don't have the means. | No chance |
| This is Philip Rivers' team. End of story. | No chance |
| AFC NORTH by Jamison Hensley | ||
| The Ravens are currently talking to Joe Flacco about a long-term contract extension. When someone asked general manager Ozzie Newsome about his interest in Manning, he laughed like it was the best joke he had heard at the NFL combine. | No chance |
| The Bengals are building for the future with quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green. Plus, Cincinnati's track record shows owner Mike Brown doesn't go after big-name free agents. | No chance |
| There's little question that the Browns need a starting quarterback, but the problem is convincing Manning this is a team that's a quarterback away from going to the Super Bowl. The more likely scenario is signing Matt Flynn in free agency or trading up to draft Robert Griffin III. | Very low |
| The Steelers have a starting quarterback who has more Super Bowl rings than Manning. Even if the Steelers wanted Manning, they don't have the cap room to do anything about it. | No chance |
| AFC SOUTH by Paul Kuharsky | ||
| They don't have the money and Manning doesn't move the way the Texans need a quarterback to move in their bootleg-heavy system. | Very low |
| The end is the end. The Colts are ready to move ahead with a change, and it'll be Andrew Luck, not Manning, under center when they next take the field. | No chance |
| New owner Shad Khan will make a big splash, but I don't think it'll be with this move. Like it or not, they're moving forward with Blaine Gabbert. | Very low |
| Yes, a healthy Manning in Tennessee could spur a Super Bowl charge in Bud Adams' final years. But he's not pushing for it and team brass isn't interested. | Very low |
