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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Browns in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): The Browns reap the rewards of a third straight successful draft and produce their first non-losing season since 2007. Team president Mike Holmgren and general manager Tom Heckert are vindicated for making the right moves, and head coach Pat Shurmur shows what he can do when he has a full offseason with a team. While this isn't a playoff team yet, this season proves that the team is headed in the right direction.

First-round running back Trent Richardson becomes the centerpiece of the Browns' offense, providing a tough and mean attitude. He lives up to expectations of being the No. 3 overall pick and is the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year. First-round pick Brandon Weeden makes an immediate impact with his big arm, convincing everyone that he is a franchise quarterback. He is also the mature leader that the offense needs.

On defense, tackle Phil Taylor returns earlier than expected from his pectoral muscle injury and misses only a handful of games. Middle linebacker D'Qwell Jackson proves he's worth his new five-year, $42.5 million deal and leads the NFL in tackles. Linebacker Scott Fujita wins the appeal of his three-game suspension from the Saints' bounty scandal and starts the season opener. The addition of defensive end Frostee Rucker significantly improves a run defense that ranked 30th in the NFL last season.

Nightmare scenario (3-13): The Browns hit rock bottom, struggling against the NFL's third-toughest schedule. The hot seat is scorching for Shumur, and there are constant questions whether Holmgren and Heckert will be around when the Browns select first in the 2013 draft.

The biggest problem is a lack of playmakers on offense. Richardson is a physical runner but he can't break tackle after tackle. Defenses load the box with eight and nine players because they don't fear any of the wide receivers. Greg Little continues to drop passes and Mohamed Massaquoi continues to underachieve. Rookie Travis Benjamin brings speed but doesn't have the size to get off the line. That is all compounded by Weeden making too many mistakes when pressured, which was the knock on him coming out of college.

The defense's biggest weakness -- run defense -- gets exploited even more when Taylor takes longer than expected to recover. Rookie defensive linemen John Hughes and Billy Winn play like rookies in trying to replace him. Defensive end Jabaal Sheard isn't as disruptive as he was as a rookie, and Rucker is a disappointment as the team's top free-agent signing.

A respected committee of ESPN experts -- including Trent Dilfer, Mel Kiper, Gary Horton and Matt Williamson -- got together to look into the crystal ball and produce the NFL Future Power Rankings .

The projection is for the 2015 season and takes into account five factors: roster (32.5 percent), quarterback (17.5 percent), draft (15 percent), front office (15 percent) and coaching (20 percent).

You'll need an Insider subscription to see the entire post, but here's the AFC North portion of it:

5. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Williamson: The "Steeler Way" has been working extremely well for a long time, as Pittsburgh's front office evaluates college talent and its own players as well as any team in the league. They are exceptional.

Hensley: The key was the Steelers using their top two picks on offensive linemen. As long as Ben Roethlisberger is protected and stays healthy, the Steelers will be among the top teams in the NFL.

10. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Kiper: No team consistently delivers as much value. Ozzie Newsome is a Hall of Famer … in the front office, too. The Ravens face some big personnel losses on defense coming soon, but few are better equipped to move on.

Hensley: The biggest question mark facing the Ravens by 2015 is how do they replace the leadership of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Baltimore needs its offense to become the dominant unit in order for the Ravens to be a top-10 team at this point.

11. CINCINNATI BENGALS

Dilfer: Andy Dalton quietly had an exceptionally good rookie season. Only Cam Newton diminished it. He has maintained a mature approach that we saw when he was at TCU; he gets deep into his reads, has an accurate arm and should continue to get better. If they can run it a little better, this offense will take a big leap.

Hensley: The Bengals have certainly set themselves up with two really strong drafts. The key is developing this talent and making sure these young players reach their potential. Cincinnati could be the most complete team in the division by 2015, with the emphasis on could.

32. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Williamson: Color me skeptical of the Browns' front office -- and this organization isn't exactly patient. Cleveland's front office is now directly tied to Brandon Weeden's future success. I can't say that is the perfect position to be in.

Hensley: With the exception of Trent Richardson, this team lacks playmakers. That's a rough spot to be in when you play defenses like the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals. And don't forget that Weeden will turn 32 during the 2015 season.

Browns linebacker Scott Fujita vowed to clear his name from the Saints' bounty scandal, but he won't say to what extent he'll go to do so.

I believe Fujita when he says he is more concerned about this black mark on his name. A three-game suspension doesn't affect a 10-year veteran as much as what an incident like this can do to his reputation.

Fujita is a member of the NFL Players Association executive committee. He was a proponent of stronger rules in dealing with concussions after Colt McCoy's incident last year. This suspension makes him look like a hypocrite.

The strongest course of action is to follow former teammate Jonathan Vilma, who has sued NFL commissioner Roger Goodell for defamation. Fujita wouldn't say whether he plans to do this.

“Jonathan Vilma is incredibly bright,” Fujita told reporters after the Browns' first full-team workout Tuesday. “He’s a man of very high character, and he’s got a lot of pride. He’s one of the best teammates I’ve ever had. I’m proud to call him a friend. I wish him the best in whatever he wants to do.”

The NFL charged Fujita with pledging “a significant amount of money” which was used for cart-offs and knockouts on plays “during which an opposing player was injured.” He was suspended for three games, which will cost him cost him about $645,000 and much more.

“Listen, my reputation is a lot more valuable to me than three game checks,” Fujita said. “My track record speaks for itself.”

Offseason training activities for veterans and rookies kick off today for the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. Here's a look at the newcomers to watch for each team:

BENGALS: Running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The prize of the Bengals' free agency was Green-Ellis, the New England Patriots free agent who signed a three-year, $9 million contract. The focus for the Bengals' offense is to get Green Ellis in rhythm with the team's new-look line. He's an improvement over Cedric Benson, who upgrades the Bengals in the red zone and provides a dependability factor.

Green-Ellis never fumbled in his four seasons in New England. Benson, meanwhile, fumbled five times in two December games last season. Green-Ellis' ability to hammer the ball across the goal line won't show up in non-contact drills this offseason, but it will be appreciated during the season. He led the Patriots with 24 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons. As a team, Cincinnati totaled 18 rushing touchdowns over that same span.

BROWNS: Defensive end Frostee Rucker. All eyes will remain on the Browns' two first-round picks, running back Trent Richardson and quarterback Brandon Weeden. Both will be instrumental in how the Browns revive the NFL's 29th-ranked offense. What shouldn't go overlooked is the addition of Rucker, the former Bengals lineman who will be pivotal in turning around another weak area -- the league's 30th-ranked run defense.

Rucker, 28, was the Browns' big target in a low-key free agency period for the team. A full-time starter for the first time in his career last season, he signed a five-year, $21 million contract that includes $8 million guaranteed. The hope is he can have the same impact with the Browns as he did for the Bengals, who ranked 10th in the league in run defense last season. The statistic that jumps out with Rucker is his 11 tackles for loss, which led the Bengals.

RAVENS: Offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele. The biggest question mark on the Ravens' offense is left guard. Osemele needs to beat out Jah Reid in order to become the first Ravens rookie offensive lineman to start a season opener since Michael Oher in 2009. Baltimore tried to address that spot in free agency, but it was unable to re-sign Ben Grubbs and failed to lure Evan Mathis from the Philadelphia Eagles.

The lack of success in free agency forced the Ravens to use a second-round draft pick on Osemele. There's no doubt that Osemele will be able to hold up physically, considering he's 6-foot-5, 333 pounds. The challenge for him is adjusting to a new position. An offensive tackle at Iowa State, Osemele has to show he can fit in next to veterans Matt Birk and Bryant McKinnie. There will be a drop-off at this spot since a Pro Bowl player like Grubbs is gone, but the development of Osemele will determine if it is a major or minor one.

STEELERS: Offensive tackle Mike Adams. The Steelers showed their commitment to Adams starting right away when team officials phoned Willie Colon after the draft to let him know he was moving to guard. Now, it's up to Adams to show he's capable of doing so. He's a first-round talent who fell to the second round because of off-field issues. The uncertainty with Adams on the field is whether he's strong enough to play in the NFL as a rookie.

There's no such doubts with first-round pick David DeCastro, who is expected to be an eventual Pro Bowl player at right guard. As the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review pointed out, the Steelers have started a rookie up front to open the season three times since the 1970 merger. Pittsburgh could have two in the starting lineup in Week 1 at Denver. Of course, it's up to Adams to show he's ready.

General manager Tom Heckert clarified the Browns' quarterback competition Monday night, saying the team drafted Brandon Weeden with the intention of him starting as a rookie.

"The best guy is going to play and we fully expect Brandon to be that guy," Heckert said. "That's our goal is to have him be the guy. I think when we say, open competition, the best guy's going to play, that's just the way it is. But we drafted Brandon Weeden to be that guy. [You] draft a guy 22nd in the draft, you think he's going to be that guy."

This is what the Browns should have been saying all along. Team officials have been trying to present this as an open quarterback competition when it's clearly not.

The Browns should say they expect Weeden should be the starter. If Weeden is going to succeed in this division, he's going to have to get used to feeling pressure. He's going to have to battle more than expectations when he sees the defenses of the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals twice every season.

The Colts and Redskins have already given the starting jobs to Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. The Browns have been reluctant to do the same, and I understand the merits of wanting a quarterback to earn the starting job.

But the team isn't fooling anyone. Even if the Browns aren't saying it, the expectation of every Browns Backer is that Weeden will start and should start. The Browns already put that pressure on Weeden when they decided to draft him in the first round and not wait until the second. His arm strength, accuracy and size puts him ahead of Colt McCoy and Seneca Wallace.

It doesn't matter if McCoy is the quarterback who takes the first snaps today when organized team activities begin. By the end of the preseason, this should be Weeden's offense unless he can't handle the pressure. But it's better to find out if Weeden can handle the pressure now than on Sept. 9 against the Eagles.

The AFC North quarterbacks received no love from NFL.com, which ranked the division's passers fifth in the league.

This is a little low in my estimation. Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton and Brandon Weeden (or Colt McCoy) should at least be No. 4. Here's how NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah assessed the division:

It was a tough call putting this group behind the AFC West QBs. Big Ben has two Super Bowl rings and is arguably the best in the league at extending the play. Last season, Flacco was a dropped pass away from making his Super Bowl debut, while Dalton would've been the talk of the league if not for Cam Newton's amazing rookie year. I'm not the biggest Weeden fan, but he does have size and a live arm.

For those reasons, I would put the AFC North ahead of the AFC West, which ranked fourth despite featuring a banged-up Peyton Manning and a struggling Philip Rivers, along with two quarterbacks on the hot seat (Matt Cassel and Carson Palmer). Roethlisberger has to be considered better than Manning at this point. Flacco outplayed Tom Brady in the AFC title game, and Rivers threw the third-most interceptions in the NFL (20). And Dalton made more of an impact on his team as a rookie than veterans Cassel and Palmer did last season.

The AFC North falls short of No. 3 with the NFC East, which has Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III. Roethlisberger has as many rings as Manning, but it's difficult to argue that Flacco had a better season than Romo (31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions). The nod goes to the NFC East in Dalton-Vick and Weeden-RG3.

It comes as no surprise that the Cleveland Browns have the largest rookie pool. With 11 draft picks, including two first-rounders, the Browns were allowed to spend $9.7 million to sign their selections.

The league determines the numbers for the rookie pool by how many picks a team has and where those picks were located in each round.

The rest of the AFC North is in the middle of the NFL in terms of the rookie pool: Cincinnati Bengals ($6.8 million), Pittsburgh Steelers ($5.1 million) and Baltimore Ravens ($4.3 million).

The Ravens were the first team in the NFL to sign all of their draft picks. There's only two unsigned picks for the Steelers (guard David DeCastro and linebacker Sean Spence) and the Browns (running back Trent Richardson and quarterback Brandon Weeden).

The Bengals still need to sign six of their draft picks: cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, guard Kevin Zeitler, wide receiver Mohamed Sanu, defensive tackle Brandon Thompson, tight end Orson Charles and running back Dan Herron.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Cleveland Browns and why.

Hot seats in the NFL are typically reserved for head coaches and general managers. For the Browns, the heat is on team president Mike Holmgren.

The Browns added hope when they hired Holmgren as their top executive after he returned the Packers to prominence and guided the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. Rebuilding has been more of a challenge with the Browns, who have won nine games in Holmgren's two seasons. Instead of turning into a winner, the franchise has spun its wheels under Holmgren and the fan base is becoming skeptical.

This is a big year for the Holmgren regime because a potential franchise quarterback (Brandon Weeden) and star running back (Trent Richardson) were drafted in the first round to go with a top-10 defense. Holmgren has promised a "pretty good jump" for the Browns, so another four- or five-win season isn't going to cut it. It's time for Holmgren to erase past mistakes like keeping Eric Mangini around as head coach for a year and failing to trade up for quarterback Robert Griffin III in this year's draft.

Holmgren had a more immediate impact at his other stops. In Green Bay, he inherited a four-win team and led the Packers to the playoffs by his second season. In Seattle, he took over a team that hadn't been to the playoffs in 10 years and guided the Seahawks to the playoffs in his first season. The pressure is on Holmgren to show signs of a similar turnaround in Cleveland.

No one knows how Browns rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden will react when James Harrison is bearing down on him or when Ed Reed is baiting him into a throw.

But what the 22nd overall pick proved in rookie minicamp this past weekend is he doesn't lack confidence.

"We are coming with a goal to win games," Weeden told reporters last weekend when asked about his message to Browns fans. "Obviously, our first goal is to get to the playoffs, then go as far as we can, and ultimately, before it’s all said and done to win a Super Bowl. That’s my goal as a player. Before I am done playing, I want to win a Super Bowl."

Using the words "Super Bowl" in the first weekend of putting on an NFL uniform can be chalked up to youthful exuberance. Just remember that Weeden can back up that confidence with his track record in college. He went 23-3 as a starter at Oklahoma State. Last season, he beat the three quarterbacks selected before him in the draft (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill). Those were the labels on Weeden coming out of college: he's got a strong arm and he's a winner.

This should be Weeden's mindset in joining the Browns, and this is what the Browns were looking for when they used a first-round pick on him. When you draft a quarterback that high, you're looking for a new start and distance yourself from the last-place finishes and double-digit losses nearly every year. And you don't want to bring in a quarterback who simply wants to win the starting job. He should expect to win games and eventually championships.

Talking like this in May is the easy part, though. The true test to his confidence will come in four months, when he actually puts on pads and goes head-to-head against the likes of Harrison and Reed.

The first day of rookie minicamp was supposed to represent a new start with running back Trent Richardson and quarterback Brandon Weeden getting on the field for the first time. Instead, the day was marred by the Cleveland Browns' continued run of bad luck.

Head coach Pat Shurmur announced that defensive tackle Phil Taylor would need surgery to repair a torn chest muscle and could miss the upcoming season.

"It was just one of those things that happens," Shurmur said Friday. But why does it always seem to happen to the Browns?

In May 2005, Kellen Winslow's season ended when he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in a motorcycle crash. In July 2006, LeCharles Bentley's season was done after he sustained an injury to his left knee on the first team drill of training camp. And middle linebacker D'Qwell Jackson missed 26 games in 2009-10 because of two pectoral muscle injuries.

The latest rough turn of events occurred Thursday when Taylor injured himself. It didn't occur on the field and it wasn't the result of a hit. Taylor tore his left pectoral muscle while doing bench presses in the weight room.

Taylor posted this message on Twitter: "Just a bump in the road. Got [to] work hard and come back -- Strong."

Injuries aren't the only reason why the Browns have lost 117 games since returning to the league 11 seasons ago. The instability in the front office and coaching staff shows Cleveland has struggled to find and develop talent.

It just seems like the Browns are dealing with a setback even before the regular seasons begins. This time, the injury hurts an already weak spot on the Browns team.

Even with a run-stuffer like Taylor, the Browns gave up 147.4 yards on the ground per game last season, which was third-worst in the NFL and last in the AFC. In comparison, the Ravens (92.6 yards rushing allowed), Steelers (99.8) and Bengals (104.7) all ranked in the top 10 in run defense last season.

The likely replacement is rookie sixth-round draft pick Billy Winn. Third-round nose tackle John Hughes could also figure into the competition. The interesting part is Winn and Hughes are roommates.

"We've already started to create that little bond," Winn told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. "We're roommates so we've been doing a little chatting and going over the playbook. We'll help each other out and compete against each other and make each other better."

Here's the buzz surrounding the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens as they hold rookie minicamps this weekend:

BENGALS: First-round cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick had an uneven start in his first minicamp. "[He] got challenged often as he was matched up against Vidal Hazelton and [Armon] Binns," the Cincinnati Enquirer's Joe Reedy wrote. "Some times he did well and other times he struggled as the receivers got a step or two in coverage." Undrafted linebacker Vontaze Burfict had an uneventful first day, meanwhile. He told reporters that he is motivated to prove people wrong. "Not being picked, going undrafted, I have a big chip on my shoulder," Burfict said. "I’m ready to hit somebody.”

BROWNS: Much of the focus was on first-round quarterback Brandon Weeden. "He displayed an arm strength not seen around these parts since Derek Anderson, but the smooth touch on short passes that Anderson didn't possess," the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mary Kay Cabot wrote. The third overall pick, running back Trent Richardson also made an impression. He stiff-armed a defender and knocked him to the ground even though it was a non-contract practice.

RAVENS: Baltimore's rookie minicamp was closed to reporters. According to the team's website, which had access to practice, second-round linebacker Courtney Upshaw moved around at different positions and looked solid in pass coverage. The website reported: "He recognized a swing pass on one play, and would have had a tackle for loss, drawing praise from linebackers coach Ted Monachino. He also had a tipped pass that was picked off."

The quarterback controversy has already begun in Browns minicamp, Damien Woody thinks the Jets should skip "Hard Knocks" and Herm says Vince Young will be more than just a backup in Buffalo.

The Browns weren't able to draft an impact wide receiver in the first three rounds, but team president Mike Holmgren hasn't ruled out signing one over the next couple of months.

"There’s a chance between now and the time ... we tee up that there will be an addition to the wide receiver group," Holmgren told a Cleveland radio station, via SportsRadioInterviews.com. "But if there isn’t, then honestly I feel pretty good about our guys."

Holmgren continues to express faith in Greg Little, the team's second-round pick from a year ago who led the team in receptions -- but also averaged one drop for every five passes thrown his way, according to Pro Football Focus.

"I said this last year and I will say it again, I think Little proved he can play in the league," Holmgren said, "and he’s going to get nothing but better after his first year."

Holmgren called Mohamed Massaquoi "the wild card" of the wide receiver group. He set career lows last season in catches (31), receiving yards (384) and yards per catch (12.4).

"I believe in that young man, I really do," Holmgren said. "I think he’s finally gotten over that concussion thing he’s had, and it kind of changed his game just a little a bit in my opinion. But he is a talented guy and I’ve had great talks with him and I think he can be a really, really fine player. So we will see."

Holmgren added, "If that happens and with the addition of [fourth-round draft pick Travis] Benjamin who is fast on fast, I mean he can really run, I think we’re going to be OK there. Did we go into the draft thinking we could pick up another one? Yes we did but it didn’t happen.”

Browns defensive tackle Phil Taylor officially has a torn pectoral muscle and will miss significant time, coach Pat Shurmur told Cleveland reporters Friday.

Taylor is scheduled for surgery next week, Shurmur said. The Browns will likely turn to one of two rookies (Billy Winn or John Hughes), or returning backup Scott Paxson.

Taylor, the 21st overall pick of the 2011 draft, started all 16 games as a rookie and finished seventh on the team with 59 tackles. He also recorded four sacks and a forced fumble.

In a race that doesn't earn you anything except a blog post like this, the Baltimore Ravens became the first team in the NFL to sign their entire 2012 draft class.

This shouldn't come as a surprise because the Ravens were one of five teams not to have a first-round pick. Baltimore wrapped up its signings Thursday afternoon by agreeing to terms with second-round pick Courtney Upshaw and sixth-round pick Tommy Streeter.

The new collective bargaining agreement has sped up the signings. In previous seasons, teams wouldn't begin striking deals until after the July 4th holiday. Now, NFL teams are signing picks at a record pace.

As far as the rest of the AFC North, the Steelers have two more picks left to sign while the Browns have five remaining, including both first-round picks (running back Trent Richardson and quarterback Brandon Weeden). The Bengals have signed two of their 10 draft picks.