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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Chiefs in 2012.

Dream scenario (10-6): Kansas City’s roster is much stronger than it was in 2011, when the Chiefs were riddled with key injuries. Kansas City lost franchise building blocks like Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki very early. If such young players can return to where they were pre-injury to go along with an extremely strong offseason for Kansas City, this roster could be one of the most talented and deepest in the NFL. Despite a gaping hole at right tackle, the Chiefs’ pass blocking was pretty strong in 2011, but the run blocking was suspect. Kansas City has upgraded dramatically at that spot with the addition of Eric Winston, so expect the front five to excel this season. Another area where Kansas City could rather easily improve is on special teams, where overall they struggled quite a bit in 2011. Based on last year’s opponents’ winning percentage, the Chiefs have the easiest schedule in the AFC West by a narrow margin over Oakland. To me, the Chiefs ceiling this year is winning the division and maybe a playoff game or two.

Nightmare scenario (7-9): When discussing the Chiefs’ roster, which overall I am very high on, I failed to mention the quarterback position. Matt Cassel is not a bad quarterback, but he certainly isn’t a difference-maker either. In fact, Kansas City is possibly the weakest team in the AFC West at the most important position on the field -- although a case could be made for the Raiders for that distinction. Also, there is little behind Cassel if he should fall to injury, as he did a year ago. That in itself puts a low ceiling on what this team might be able to ultimately accomplish in 2012. Also, will those young talents return to past form after injury? Will Dontari Poe be a difference-maker in his first NFL season? Although I don’t see the Chiefs’ ceiling being as high as Denver’s, I also think their floor is in the 7-9 range unless utter disaster strikes again.

Yeremiah Bell will not be the one who provides depth to the Kansas City Chiefs’ secondary.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the safety has signed with the New York Jets. Bell visited the Chiefs on Wednesday, and they were one of four teams he was considering.

The Chiefs were interested in Bell as a third safety. The Chiefs also looked at veteran O.J. Atogwe.

In other AFC West news:

Here is a call for the Raiders to cut troubled middle linebacker Rolando McClain. He was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2010 draft. He has been a disappointment on the field and a distraction off it.

Once again, in a radio interview, LaDainian Tomlinson, said he’d consider playing for the Chargers again. And, once again, I just can’t see that happening.

New Denver defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, in radio interview, said he expects his unit to be a top-10 defense. For that to be possible, the defensive tackles would have to mesh quickly.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Chiefs and why.

I wish I could be creative here and point the finger at someone other than Matt Cassel in Kansas City.

I just can’t.

No one is facing more of a pressure situation in Kansas City than Cassel heading into the 2012 season. Sure, Kansas City general manager Scott Pioli (who traded for Cassel three years ago) will feel the heat if Cassel fails in 2012. But Pioli probably will not be fired if Cassel fails in 2012. Pioli probably will be given an opportunity to replace Cassel.

However, if Cassel fails this season, he probably will lose his job. Hence, the immense pressure.

The Chiefs showed confidence in Cassel this offseason when they built around him in free agency and the draft instead of replacing him. Kansas City has put together a strong team, one that appears to have few holes. It is set up to make a playoff run.

But Cassel has to lead them there. Again, it’s all on him. The pieces are there. If Cassel doesn’t seize the moment, he’ll pay for it by losing his job.

It’s May, and in the world of NFL coverage, that means it’s time to look at interesting factoids drowned out the roar of the league's busy season (which is a long, long period).

The fantastic minds of the Football Outsiders put together an interesting look at the defensive players who had holding calls go against the player blocking them. The statistic is called forced holds.

Two young AFC West players – Oakland’s Lamarr Houston and Kansas City’s Justin Houston (no relation) – ranked high on the list. Lamarr Houston, a second-year defensive lineman, forced seven holds, which was tied for the second-most in the NFL. Rookie linebacker Justin Houston -- who came on strong late in the season -- forced six holds, which was fourth in the NFL.

What does it all mean? Is it a special skill the Houstons possess? It is a compliment to their defensive prowess? Or it is just a coincidence that they were held against often?

I asked Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. for his thoughts on why the two forced so many holds.

“Both Houstons are very talented and both are up-and-coming players,” Williamson said. “But even more so, they played with guys that demand a ton of attention from pass-protection schemes in Richard Seymour, Kamerion Wimbley (they were in Oakland) and (in Justin Houston’s case) Tamba Hali. So, one-on-one matchups against average offensive tackles, often right tackles, could sure lead to a lot of holds.”

Whatever the reason, in the AFC West, Houston does have a problem attracting the yellow flag.

Is quarterback Matt Cassel ready to lead this team on a deep playoff run?

There is no doubt the Chiefs believe in Cassel. It is up to him to prove the team right.

There was speculation in both free agency and before the draft that the Chiefs would replace Cassel, or at least bring in legitimate competition. Like many teams, the Chiefs showed initial interest in Peyton Manning, but he never returned the interest. The Chiefs also investigated some of the top quarterbacks available in the draft.

In the end, the Chiefs choose not to replace Cassel, but to build the roster around him.

As a result, the Chiefs have constructed one of the deepest rosters in the AFC. Many league observers believe the Chiefs are completely set, but Cassel remains a question mark.

If Cassel doesn’t succeed this season after being given every opportunity to do so, the Chiefs will have to consider making a change in 2013.

Here's a look at how the AFC West teams fared in our post-draft power rankings. I do not have a vote, but I do have an opinion:

Denver Broncos

Power ranking: 10

My range: 9-11

Comment: It’s all about Peyton Manning in Denver, but the key will be improvement on defense.

San Diego Chargers

Power ranking: 15

My range: 13-15

Comment: The Chargers had a tremendous draft after a strong free-agency period. This team got better.

Kansas City Chiefs

Power ranking: 17

My range: 11-13

Comment: The voters are sleeping are on the Chiefs. This team is strong.

Oakland Raiders

Power ranking: 26

My range: 17-19

Comment: The key in Oakland will be strong play by Carson Palmer and health on both sides of the ball.

The running back class was one of the slowest to develop in the early stages of free agency, and there are still a few capable players available on the market.

Don’t be surprised if some of the AFC West teams look into the position now that the draft is complete. Denver drafted San Diego State’s Ronnie Hillman in the third round, and San Diego draft Michigan State’s Edwin Baker in the seventh. Oakland didn’t draft a running back. Kansas City, which drafted Cyrus Gray of Texas A&M, appears set at the position.

Yet, I could see the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders looking for a veteran with Oakland being the most likely to add a veteran as they try to replace Michael Bush, who left for Chicago in free agency. As of now, Taiwan Jones and Mike Goodson are backing up the great, but oft-injured Darren McFadden

Among the best names available are Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai. Other running backs available include Tim Hightower, Justin Forsett and Ronnie Brown.

I think Benson can help any team, and I think he’d be a great fit in Oakland. He had 1,067 yards last season. He’d be a strong insurance policy for McFadden. Finances are an issue for Oakland, but, at this point, Benson would likely take what he can get.

The Addai-Peyton Manning connection from Indianapolis always makes it possible that Addai could join Willis McGahee and Hillman in Denver’s backfield. San Diego could add a veteran, and they have talked to Kansas City free agent Jackie Battle.

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South


The biggest offseason move in the AFC West in years was the Broncos’ signing of superstar quarterback Peyton Manning in March.

It instantly changed the landscape of the AFC West and it likely will continue to do so for the next three years or so. During the draft, Manning’s impact was felt in the division when several of the premium picks by the Broncos’ rivals were defensive players.

The first player taken in the division was athletic defensive tackle Dontari Poe. The Memphis product was taken No. 11 by the Chiefs. San Diego used its first three picks on defensive players, all of whom have a chance to make an instant impact.

Let’s look at the highlights of the AFC West draft:

BEST MOVE

The first two days of the San Diego Chargers’ draft.

No one in the division scored like the Chargers did. Following up a strong free-agency class, Chargers GM A.J. Smith deserves a lot of credit for this draft. The Chargers badly needed impact players on defense and they got them.

San Diego made one of the top value picks of the draft when it watched South Carolina pass-rusher Melvin Ingram fall to them. He was supposed to be a top-10 pick. San Diego considered moving up to take Alabama safety Mark Barron but he went at No. 7. Instead, the Chargers stayed at home and watched an equally talented player fall to them. Ingram fills the Chargers’ biggest need and he should be an instant contributor.

The Chargers scored again by getting great value in the second and third rounds. San Diego watched Connecticut defensive lineman Kendall Reyes fall to them at No. 49. With LSU safety Brandon Taylor still on the board (San Diego considered him at No. 49), the Chargers moved up and took him at No 73. There is no way the Chargers could have scripted the first three rounds any better.

The 2012 Chargers got better in this draft.

RISKIEST MOVE

Arguably, there wasn't a riskier move in this draft than the Kansas City Chiefs’ choice of Poe at No. 11.

The nose tackle from Memphis was one of the most talked about players in the draft. After his stunning performance at the NFL combine, Poe was considered a potential top-five player. However, after teams dissected his game film, they discovered Poe didn’t consistently make plays against marginal competition.

By the time the draft rolled around, it seemed as though Poe could fall into the 20s. But the Chiefs took him because of his ability and the fact he fills their greatest need. Poe was the best talent at No. 11 and the fact he filled a major need makes this a logical pick.

But if Poe doesn't develop, the Chiefs will get heat for not following the general consensus. The team has failed to hit a home run with recent picks on the defensive line, so the Chiefs have to make this work. Kansas City thinks Poe will excel under coach Romeo Crennel because he will concentrate on one position as opposed to having to play several spots as he did in college. If the Chiefs are right, this will be a big score. If not, they’ll be forever reminded of it.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

I don’t think it was shocking that the Denver Broncos picked a quarterback or that the quarterback ended up being Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler.

But I think it was a surprise Denver took him at No. 57. That’s a high spot for a player who probably won’t start until 2015, at the earliest.

The Broncos have other needs and they have Manning. Yet, Osweiler was a target. It shows how much Denver executive VP John Elway values the position and how much he liked Osweiler. He could have waited a couple of years to peg Manning’s successor, but he did it before Manning has even thrown a pass in Denver.

FILE IT AWAY

This draft will be remembered as a success for all four teams in the division. I was impressed with how each team approached the draft and the patience each team showed.

I think the Chargers got as many impact players for the immediate future as any team in the league. I like Denver’s creativity. It traded out of the first round and still got some quality players such as defensive linemen Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson and running back Ronnie Hillman.

The Chiefs quietly had a strong draft and middle-rounders such as receiver Devon Wylie, defensive back De'quan Menzie and running back Cyrus Gray will add depth to this team.

New Oakland general manager Reggie McKenzie didn’t have many picks to work with -- his first was No. 95. But it is easy to tell there is draft-room stability with the post-Al Davis Raiders.

McKenzie played his board well and didn’t make any puzzling picks based on measurables as the late Davis was known to do. Oakland’s draft will not make many headlines, but McKenzie may have tabbed future starters in tackle Tony Bergstrom, linebacker Miles Burris and receiver Juron Criner.

The Kansas City Chiefs continue to add depth on offense.

A month after signing running back Peyton Hillis to a one-year deal to work with Jamaal Charles, who is coming off a torn ACL, the Chiefs added solid value at the position late in the draft.

In the sixth round, Kansas City drafted Texas A&M running back Cyrus Gray. The Chiefs had been closely watching Gray.

Gray may not be ready to make an impact in the NFL, but there is a lot to like about him. He has game-breaking speed and he seems to understand the game. I think he can become a very good player and he is an excellent value.

I’m telling you, folks, this is becoming one of the deepest offenses in the NFL. The Chiefs have a lot of talent at every layer of the unit and Gray fits right in.

The Kansas City Chiefs were interested in Alabama safety Mark Barron, who went four picks before they made their choice in the first round.

In the end, though, the Chiefs may have still gotten a safety from Alabama. The Chiefs took DeQuan Menzie in the fifth round.

He played cornerback at Alabama and did a nice job. But he doesn’t have great speed and may project to safety. He is a smart player who knows how to make plays. I think this could be a player to watch develop in the next couple of years and it is another SEC pickup by Kansas City general manager Scott Pioli, who craves players from that conference.

In other AFC West news:

• The Raiders picked up an extra seventh-round pick when they traded a fifth-round pick (148th overall) to Detroit for the 158th and 230th overall picks. The Lions took small-school cornerback Chris Greenwood at No. 148. Oakland was studying him. Yet, it seems the Raiders want another late pick to add to the bottom of the roster.
• For all new season tickets purchased and paid for in full from May 1 to June 30, the Raiders will donate ten percent of the gross ticket purchase price to the Oakland Unified School District.
• At No. 158, the Raiders drafted Penn State defensive end Jack Crawford. He projects to be a rotational pass-rusher. He fits into both the 4-3 and 3-4 so he will fit the Raiders’ versatile group of front seven players.

Friday was a good draft for the AFC West. The Chargers were stars, the Broncos had a terrific Day Two after bailing out of Day One and the Chiefs have quietly added big beef so far.

• I give credit to Oakland general manager Reggie McKenzie for being patient. Most first-time GMs would get antsy and trade up if they had to wait until the No. 95 pick. But with only the fifth- and sixth-round picks to trade (Oakland’s three compensatory picks cannot be traded), McKenzie likely would have had to dip into future years to move up. He wants to stop the Oakland trend of trading future picks and I don’t blame him. McKenzie is going to get what he can from this draft and move on. Smart move.
• I wonder if the Chargers will try to move up and get Miami running back Lamar Miller. If not, they might have to sign a free agent.
• Michigan State quarterback Kirk Cousins is still out there. He’d be a real nice value for Kansas City in the fourth round.
• As the ESPN telecast ended, Jon Gruden lauded the AFC West. The former Oakland coach said he believes this is becoming a potent division.
• Denver coach John Fox said the Broncos' third-round pick, running back Ronnie Hillman, will get a chance to be a returner.

After a strong second round in the AFC West, I thought there were some interesting developments in the third round in the division as well.

Let’s take a look:

Denver will worry about getting a bigger back later, but it was clearly interested in getting a faster, smaller running back in the third round. The Broncos traded up 20 spots (it gave up one its three fourth rounders as well as No. 87) to take San Diego State's explosive Ronnie Hillman.

He has been compared to Darren Sproles and he should have a place in Peyton Manning's offense. Denver’s trade was made shortly after San Francisco took Oregon’s speedster LaMichael James, so I think the Broncos wanted either James or Hillman and decided to pounce on Hillman after James was taken.

Willis McGahee will remain the starter, but Hillman should be dangerous. I wonder where this leaves 2009 top pick Knowshon Moreno. He will either be a 5-8 carry option behind McGahee or he could be on the outside looking in.

Moreno blew out his knee last year and he has since gotten a DUI. Hillman is clearly more in Denver’s plans than Moreno. Again, Denver will need to find a young power back sometime, but Hillman has an immediate place in this offense.

While Denver traded up for Hillman, San Diego moved up to take LSU safety Brandon Taylor.

Folks, San Diego is killing this draft. It is just slaying it. A trio of pass-rusher Melvin Ingram (No. 18), defensive lineman Kendall Reyes (No. 49) and Taylor (No. 73) is a wicked group to bring into one defense. All three players were taken later than projected and could all make immediate impacts. Major kudos to San Diego for having a strong plan.

Kansas City took its second offensive lineman of the day at No. 74 in the form of Oklahoma tackle Donald Stephenson. He is a one-year starter who has a lot of potential. I think he is a developmental player who gives the Chiefs options if they don’t want to re-sign left tackle Branden Albert after next season.

This draft may give a hint into what the Chiefs think of Albert, the No. 15 overall pick in 2008. In the second round, the Chiefs took guard Jeff Allen. If Albert doesn’t have a good year or if he does prices himself out of the Chiefs’ plans, Kansas City has options.

Oakland made its 2012 draft debut with the final pick of the day when it took Utah tackle/guard Tony Bergstrom.

I know some Oakland fans were disappointed that the choice was a developmental lineman while there were some sexier names available. But the truth is, picking at the spot is difficult and the new Oakland regime has a plan. Bergstrom is a good player, who is tough. He is a fine zone-blocking player. He deepens the line and he could vie for a starting spot in a year or two.

Unless the Raiders get extremely lucky, getting solid developmental players in this draft has to be the goal.

After addressing their greatest need by taking nose tackle Dontari Poe at No. 11, the Kansas City Chiefs added offensive beef at pick No. 44 by taking Illinois’ Jeff Allen.

He played both tackle spots in college, but he projects as a guard in college. He will push Ryan Lilja. Allen is set to team with former college teammate Jon Asamoah, a starting guard for the Chiefs who was a third-round pick two years ago.

The Chiefs are going to be very young in the interior of the offensive line. Rodney Hudson, a second-round pick last season, is expected to take over at center.

Allen is a tough, big, gritty player who appears NFL ready. This pick helps solidify Kansas City’s offense.

Once again, the Chiefs chose to enhance quarterback Matt Cassel instead of replace him. Allen was taken over several players, including Michigan State quarterback Kirk Cousins. He could still end up with the Chiefs later in the draft, but the Allen pick shows the Chiefs are bent on giving Cassel the best possible offense he can have. Allen is known as an outstanding pass protector.

The knock on Dontari Poe coming into the NFL draft was that he didn't produce enough against mediocre competition while at Memphis.

Some people thought the lack of production would cause Poe (6-foot-3, 346 pounds who dominated the combine) to fall. Yet Poe went to the Kansas City Chiefs with the No. 11 pick.

Are the Chiefs worried about Poe's lack of production in college? It doesn't appear so.

Kansas City coach Romeo Crennel said he believes Poe's inconsistency was because he had to play several different positions and never left the field. Crennel feels like the fact that Poe will play nose tackle in Kansas City will allow him to relax and concentrate at one spot.

"Because he played every down at 350 pounds and he played every position on the line in every game," Crennel said in his news briefing Thursday night. "He's playing a nine technique; he's playing a seven technique, a five technique, a three technique, a one technique, a two technique and head up on the nose sometimes. He's the jack-of-all trades. It's hard to be good at any one thing when you're doing all of those things.

"So, as a result of it, what they let him do is they let him use his ability. They ran some stunts. They ran him up the field. They did some things with him against spread offenses where the ball is coming out pretty quick.

:He wasn't able to quite have the kind of production that everybody wants him to have right away. But I think that when we get him in here and we settle him down and get him in one spot, then we'll see this guy improve and he's going to be productive, and he's going to be a good player."

It seems like Crennel has a good feel for Poe and it is another reason why I think Crennel is the key to Poe's success in Kansas City.

Had Todd Haley remained the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, the selection of Dontari Poe may not have worked.

But the Chiefs are now Romeo Crennel’s team, and that’s why taking Poe at No. 11 in the NFL draft on Thursday might be a shrewd move for a team that has missed by taking defensive lineman high in the draft in the past decade.

Poe is a classic example of the long NFL draft process. He wasn’t considered a top pick when the massive Memphis defensive tackle entered the NFL draft. However, after he stole headlines at the NFL combine in February, he became a projected top-five pick. That happens when a 6-foot-3, 345-pound man runs a 4.98 40-yard dash and bench presses 225 pounds 44 times. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Poe is the only player over 330 pounds to run a sub-five second time since 2006.

However, after Poe put himself in the spotlight, teams closely dissected him and saw a player with immense ability that didn’t always show on the field against marginal competition. It was alarming and it still is.

“I’m still waiting for Poe to unleash the fury,” ESPN analyst Jon Gruden said moments after the Chiefs made him the pick.

This is what ESPN analyst Todd McShay had about Poe last week:

“I see the workout numbers, and I found myself wanting and waiting and wishing and hoping is what I keep saying. Every single play I watched from Memphis just hoping that he would make a big play. He will disrupt and he'll be involved in some plays, but for a guy that you're talking about potential top 10, top 12 pick, I just didn't see the production, and I just didn't see a guy who understands and has a great feel for the game, and that's not to say he won't develop, and he very well may, and one day he may be a junior Haloti Ngata. But Haloti Ngata coming out was a much better football player than Dontari Poe is right now, and that scares me, and that's why I've dropped him to where he is as the third best defensive tackle, somewhere in kind of the middle range … I've got him at 19 overall in the class.”

In the days leading up to the draft, there was talk that Poe’s lack of consistent game film would override his off-the-charts ability, and he’d be picked in the 20-25 range. However, the Chiefs took another swipe at a defensive lineman early in the draft. Bypassing a safe pick such as Stanford guard David DeCastro, the Chiefs went boom or bust with Poe.

The decision to take Poe is understandable. The Chiefs, who had an outstanding free-agency period, do not have many holes. If Poe fills the nose tackle position as the team hopes he does, the Chiefs will be one of the most talented teams in the NFL and a real playoff threat. According to ESPN Stats and Information, last season Kansas City had one sack, two batted passes and three tackles for loss by its nose tackle -- and that was from the aging Kelly Gregg, a free agent.

The Chiefs hope to get better production out of Poe than they have from other defensive linemen they've taken in the first round of recent years. The team took Ryan Sims at No. 6 in the 2002 draft and he was a terrible bust. In 2008, they took defensive end Glenn Dorsey at No. 5 and in 2009 they took Tyson Jackson at No. 3. Both Dorsey and Jackson remain in Kansas City, but they have not been impact players.

Yet, they have improved in the past two years under Crennel, who became the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator in 2010 before taking over for Haley. I think Crennel is a key to the Poe pick.

Crennel is known as one of the best defensive line coaches in NFL history and he is known for getting questionable motors to start.

Poe may have a new best friend in Crennel. He is nurturer and he believes in his players. We saw the impact Crennel had on the entire Kansas City roster. The players loved the difference between the impatient and often caustic Haley and the calm, encouraging Crennel.

If think Crennel will motivate and teach Poe. Haley would have berated him and goaded him. I have a feeling Poe may respond more positively to Crennel’s approach. Crennel will teach him to become an NFL player and use his natural ability. Remember, this kid started high school as a drummer in the band. He is still raw.

Crennel has the patience and expertise to make Poe a good player and get the most out of this pick. If not, it will go down as another swing and miss on the defensive line in Kansas City.