Defense doesn't always win NFL championships. It almost never wins MVP awards.
The MVP Watch list after Week 16 reflects this reality.
This is realistically a two-man race between Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Philip Rivers, Brett Favre and Chris Johnson might have a shot at siphoning off a few votes.
But in a league where offense is king, defensive players fall by the wayside. Lawrence Taylor was the last defender to earn MVP honors, and that was 23 years ago. Current sack leader Elvis Dumervil might have had an outside chance if the Broncos had kept winning and Dumervil had kept up his early pace (8.0 sacks through four games, 10.0 through six).
Manning's chances grew with every Colts victory, including quite a few close ones in which quarterback play made the difference. While the team's decision to rest Manning and other starters did not hurt Indianapolis in our most recent power rankings, it might hurt Manning among MVP voters. An undefeated season would have differentiated Manning from all other candidates, notably Brees.
But the manner in which Indy finally lost -- only after Manning left the game -- again demonstrated Manning's value.
He looks like the favorite.
1. PEYTON MANNING
Ranks second in passing yards and touchdown passes for the team with the NFL's best record. The Colts' seven fourth-quarter comeback victories in one season are the most for an NFL team since at least 1970. Indy would have liked its chances for an eighth if Manning had been in the game late against the Jets in Week 16. 2. DREW BREES
Leads the NFL in touchdown passes and passer rating. The only quarterback completing at least 70 percent of his passes this season. Has a chance to join Steve Young (1994), Joe Montana (1989) and Ken Anderson (1982) as the only NFL players to complete at least 70 percent of 300 or more passes in a season, according to Pro Football Reference. 3. PHILIP RIVERS
Leads the NFL in yards per attempt. Could become the only player in NFL history to average at least 8.8 yards per attempt with at least 27 touchdown passes and fewer than 10 interceptions. Manning did it with 10 interceptions during his 2004 season with 49 TD passes. 
4. BRETT FAVRE
Stepped up his game in the clutch to help Minnesota nearly rally to beat the Bears on Monday night. Has nine games with a passer rating in triple digits and five games with at least 300 yards passing. Production has tailed off late in the season, likely ending his legitimate MVP chances. 5. CHRIS JOHNSON
Remains in the conversation heading into a game against Seattle that could put him past 2,000 yards rushing. Seattle has allowed only one 100-yard rusher this season (Frank Gore), but Johnson has to like his chances after the Packers' Ryan Grant broke a 56-yard run against the Seahawks in Week 16. 
6. AARON RODGERS
The Packers have little chance at improving their playoff seeding in Week 17. That could lead coach Mike McCarthy to limit Rodgers' playing time against Arizona. Rodgers is tied with Favre for third in TD passes. 7. ANDRE JOHNSON
One of 10 players in NFL history with at least 95 receptions for 1,500 yards and nine TDs in a season. Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Herman Moore, Randy Moss, Michael Irvin, Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne are the others. 8. TONY ROMO
Romo is on pace to set career bests for most passing yards and fewest interceptions. Has played some of his best games late in the season. Can start to answer questions about his big-game worthiness in Week 17. Beating the Eagles would complete a season sweep while sending the Cowboys to the playoffs as NFC East champs. 9. DONOVAN McNABB
Tends to start fast and the stats support that perception. McNabb has 16 TDs, 3 INTs and a 105.8 rating in first halves this season (6 TDs, 7 INTs and 80.1 rating in second halves). Has been highly productive with the deep ball, completing 6 of 9 passes that traveled longer than 40 yards in the air. Those plays have produced 5 TDs, 0 INTs and a 149.3 rating. 10. TOM BRADY
Sneaked back into the conversation, at least on the periphery, with four touchdowns against the Jaguars as New England clinched the AFC East title. Brady had not been at his best in recent weeks, but this was a step in the right direction, even against a vulnerable pass defense.
The MVP Watch list after Week 16 reflects this reality.
Rank 'Em: NFL MVP Candidates
How do you size up the NFL MVP race? There is no hotter team in the league right now than Philip Rivers' Chargers. Behind the stellar play of their QB, San Diego has won 10 straight games and is looking like a Super Bowl threat.
But in a league where offense is king, defensive players fall by the wayside. Lawrence Taylor was the last defender to earn MVP honors, and that was 23 years ago. Current sack leader Elvis Dumervil might have had an outside chance if the Broncos had kept winning and Dumervil had kept up his early pace (8.0 sacks through four games, 10.0 through six).
Manning's chances grew with every Colts victory, including quite a few close ones in which quarterback play made the difference. While the team's decision to rest Manning and other starters did not hurt Indianapolis in our most recent power rankings, it might hurt Manning among MVP voters. An undefeated season would have differentiated Manning from all other candidates, notably Brees.
But the manner in which Indy finally lost -- only after Manning left the game -- again demonstrated Manning's value.
He looks like the favorite.
1. PEYTON MANNING
QB | Indianapolis Colts
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 379 | 553 | 4,405 | 68.5 | 7.97 | 80 | 33 | 15 | 10 | 101.0 |
Ranks second in passing yards and touchdown passes for the team with the NFL's best record. The Colts' seven fourth-quarter comeback victories in one season are the most for an NFL team since at least 1970. Indy would have liked its chances for an eighth if Manning had been in the game late against the Jets in Week 16. Last Week: 1
2. DREW BREES
QB | New Orleans Saints
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 363 | 514 | 4,388 | 70.6 | 8.54 | 75 | 34 | 11 | 20 | 109.6 |
Leads the NFL in touchdown passes and passer rating. The only quarterback completing at least 70 percent of his passes this season. Has a chance to join Steve Young (1994), Joe Montana (1989) and Ken Anderson (1982) as the only NFL players to complete at least 70 percent of 300 or more passes in a season, according to Pro Football Reference. Last Week: 2
3. PHILIP RIVERS
QB | San Diego Chargers
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 308 | 471 | 4,155 | 65.4 | 8.82 | 81 | 27 | 9 | 25 | 104.5 |
Leads the NFL in yards per attempt. Could become the only player in NFL history to average at least 8.8 yards per attempt with at least 27 touchdown passes and fewer than 10 interceptions. Manning did it with 10 interceptions during his 2004 season with 49 TD passes. Last Week: 3
4. BRETT FAVRE
QB | Minnesota Vikings
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 338 | 500 | 3,886 | 67.6 | 7.77 | 63 | 29 | 7 | 34 | 104.3 |
Stepped up his game in the clutch to help Minnesota nearly rally to beat the Bears on Monday night. Has nine games with a passer rating in triple digits and five games with at least 300 yards passing. Production has tailed off late in the season, likely ending his legitimate MVP chances. Last Week: 6
5. CHRIS JOHNSON
RB | Tennessee Titans
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 322 | 1,872 | 5.8 | 91 | 12 | 47 | 483 | 10.3 | 69 | 2 |
Remains in the conversation heading into a game against Seattle that could put him past 2,000 yards rushing. Seattle has allowed only one 100-yard rusher this season (Frank Gore), but Johnson has to like his chances after the Packers' Ryan Grant broke a 56-yard run against the Seahawks in Week 16. Last Week: 5
6. AARON RODGERS
QB | Green Bay Packers
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 329 | 515 | 4,199 | 63.9 | 8.15 | 83 | 29 | 7 | 50 | 102.4 |
The Packers have little chance at improving their playoff seeding in Week 17. That could lead coach Mike McCarthy to limit Rodgers' playing time against Arizona. Rodgers is tied with Favre for third in TD passes. Last Week: 4
7. ANDRE JOHNSON
WR | Houston Texans
| REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 1,504 | 15.8 | 72 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | 0 |
One of 10 players in NFL history with at least 95 receptions for 1,500 yards and nine TDs in a season. Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Herman Moore, Randy Moss, Michael Irvin, Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne are the others. Last Week: NR
8. TONY ROMO
QB | Dallas Cowboys
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 323 | 516 | 4,172 | 62.6 | 8.09 | 80 | 24 | 8 | 32 | 97.0 |
Romo is on pace to set career bests for most passing yards and fewest interceptions. Has played some of his best games late in the season. Can start to answer questions about his big-game worthiness in Week 17. Beating the Eagles would complete a season sweep while sending the Cowboys to the playoffs as NFC East champs.Last Week: 9
9. DONOVAN McNABB
QB | Philadelphia Eagles
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247 | 407 | 3,330 | 60.7 | 8.18 | 60 | 22 | 10 | 31 | 94.5 |
Tends to start fast and the stats support that perception. McNabb has 16 TDs, 3 INTs and a 105.8 rating in first halves this season (6 TDs, 7 INTs and 80.1 rating in second halves). Has been highly productive with the deep ball, completing 6 of 9 passes that traveled longer than 40 yards in the air. Those plays have produced 5 TDs, 0 INTs and a 149.3 rating. Last Week: 7
10. TOM BRADY
QB | New England Patriots
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 354 | 539 | 4,212 | 65.7 | 7.81 | 81 | 28 | 12 | 15 | 97.4 |
Sneaked back into the conversation, at least on the periphery, with four touchdowns against the Jaguars as New England clinched the AFC East title. Brady had not been at his best in recent weeks, but this was a step in the right direction, even against a vulnerable pass defense. Last Week: NR
Mike Sando | email
NFL- NFC West Blogger
- Joined ESPN in 2007
- Lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons
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