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Updated NFL draft order projection after Week 16

Justin Tucker and the Ravens were excited to upset the rival Steelers in Week 16, but they will pay for that win next spring with a lower draft position. AP Photo/Nick Wass

Beware, my friends, of bad December victories.

You want to show pride? Hoping to put some things on tape for the offseason? Play spoiler and be all virtuous as a non-contender? A (deviant) word to the wise: Win at your own risk.

The Baltimore Ravens did all that in Week 16, defeating the rival Pittsburgh Steelers and possibly knocking them out of the playoffs. Hooray! And what did it get the Ravens? A drop from the top five in our weekly Football Power Index projections of 2016 draft position.

What follows is our final attempt at what has been a fun late-season exercise. The top 20 of the draft's first round will be locked in by Sunday evening, with the remainder to be filled in as playoff teams are eliminated. Keep in mind that this is a projection of the order based on records, tiebreakers and likely Week 17 outcomes as determined by 10,000 computer simulations of the games.

One last time, with tongue planted firmly in cheek:

1. Tennessee Titans

Record: 3-12

FPI odds of top pick: 85.3 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 100 percent

Comment: The Titans wouldn't be so silly as to thrust injured quarterback Marcus Mariota into the lineup, go to Indianapolis and win, would they? Otherwise, their weak strength of schedule (their SOS is .493 at the moment) gives them a tiebreaker with the Browns.

2. Cleveland Browns

Record: 3-12

FPI odds of top pick: 14.8 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 100 percent

Comment: Barring a Titans victory, the Browns won't be able to maximize on a typically disastrous season. They've lost nine of their past 10, and it's not easy to imagine them beating the Steelers at home this Sunday. But their difficult schedule (.529 SOS) will work against them one final time, even with a 3-13 finish.

3. San Diego Chargers

Record: 4-11

FPI odds of top pick: 0 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 76.4 percent

Comment: Do you see the Chargers going to Denver and defeating the Broncos, who are still fighting for a division title? Uh, nah. Hence their high likelihood of a top-five pick. Use it well in Los Angeles, fellas.

4. Dallas Cowboys

Record: 4-11

FPI odds of top pick: 0 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 52.2 percent

Comment: This one will be tricky. The Cowboys host the rival Redskins, who have already locked up the NFC East title and will be playing mostly to avoid the ignominy of being a .500 division winner. The Cowboys know what they have to do. But will they do it?

5. San Francisco 49ers

Record: 4-11

FPI odds of top pick: 0 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 57.2 percent

Comment: The 49ers, losers in five of their last six, haven't qualified for a draft pick this high since the season before Jim Harbaugh was hired as head coach. Huh. Imagine that.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 5-10

FPI odds of top pick: 0 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 54.1 percent

Comment: The Jaguars had hopes for a division title this month. Now a loss to the playoff-bound Texans will put them on the cusp of a top-five pick. Well done. Keep your eye on the ball, Jags.

7. Miami Dolphins

Record: 5-10

FPI odds of top pick: 0 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 39.6 percent

Comment: The motivational skills of interim coach Dan Campbell are a concern here. Campbell wouldn't be able to push his players to beat the visiting Patriots in the season finale, would he? A victory would threaten the Dolphins' position in the top 10. Let's not get any wild ideas.

8. Baltimore Ravens

Record: 5-10

FPI odds of top pick: 0 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 20.6 percent

Comment: Alas, those naive Ravens, thinking it's the right thing to try to win at the end of a lost season. (After all, this is the team that signed quarterback Ryan Mallett off the street and started him two weeks later.) You would think the Ravens know better than to go to Cincinnati and win, but who knows with this outfit.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 6-9

FPI odds of top pick: 0 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 0 percent

Comment: Coach Lovie Smith and general manager Jason Licht are primed to make their third consecutive selection in the top 10. Only the 14-1 Panthers stand in their way.

10. New Orleans Saints

Record: 6-9

FPI odds of top pick: 0 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 0 percent

Comment: Haven't they done enough damage already? The Saints, after all, have gone and won two of their last three and could knock themselves right out of the top 10 with a victory at Atlanta. Let's not get carried away.