Easy forecast: Browns won't trade for No. 1

April, 16, 2010
4/16/10
9:59
AM ET
I'm not big on draft-day predictions. But I'm certain about this one: The Cleveland Browns will not trade with the St. Louis Rams for the No. 1 overall pick, presumably to take quarterback Sam Bradford.

Bradford
Bradford
Holmgren
Holmgren
In other words, Browns president Mike Holmgren has a better chance of sporting dreadlocks (a la Mike Ditka) next Thursday night than giving up his entire first draft with Cleveland for one player.

Holmgren caused a mini firestorm Thursday when he admitted the Browns talked to every team in front of them, including the Rams, about moving up in the draft. Yet the reality is teams discuss a lot of things this time of year in an effort to turn over every rock and see what's realistic.

According to this value chart that most teams use, Cleveland swapping first-round picks with St. Louis is far from realistic. The Browns at No. 7 (1,500 points) would have to give up their first-round pick, second-round pick, three third-round picks, three fifth-round picks and two sixth-round picks to swap with St. Louis at No. 1.

Yes, that adds up to all of Cleveland's 10 selections this year, and the Browns still come up short on the point chart. Is it worth it?

No NFL team is that crazy, and certainly not one led by the experienced Holmgren.

James Walker | email

ESPN Miami Dolphins reporter

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