Where will Manning land?

The Colts declined to pay Peyton Manning his $28 million bonus and are set to part ways with their franchise quarterback. Manning is now the most intriguing free agent in NFL history, but he'll hit the market with one big question hovering over him: How's he throwing? It could be some time before a prospective employer has any sure sense of how the nerve regeneration that affects Manning's arm is going and will turn out. Will teams wait? Will they pounce? It'll be incredibly compelling. For now, here's a team-by-team rundown from our NFL bloggers and Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson on the interest level we expect from the rest of the league.

Team	Analysis	Probability
NFC EAST by Matt Williamson
	The Cowboys might love to make a splash like signing the future Hall of Fame quarterback -- and the Dallas fan base might be all for this move. But I contend that Tony Romo is a top-10 quarterback in this league and the Cowboys have much bigger needs than quarterback.	Low
	This would be a cute and cuddly story: the brothers could alternate every other series while also cutting down on their parents' travel costs. But I think we all know that the Super Bowl champs are pretty well set at quarterback. Big bro might end up in New York, but not with the Giants.	No chance
	For better or worse, the Eagles are married to Michael Vick. Manning will not be playing for Philadelphia this season. It just isn't going to happen.	No chance
	While Manning isn't a very good fit physically for Mike Shanahan's system and Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill may be better options overall, Washington is certainly an aggressive team that could land Manning. Stranger things have happened.	High
NFC WEST by Mike Sando
	Kevin Kolb's $7 million bonus is due March 17. Arizona will probably pay it.	Medium
	Alex Smith remains unsigned, so anything is possible. But the plan is to bring back Smith and continue developing Colin Kaepernick.	Low
	Jeff Fisher is committed to Sam Bradford and has much rebuilding to do.	No chance
	All options are on the table for Seattle. Tarvaris Jackson is the starter for now.	Medium
NFC NORTH by Matt Williamson
	Much like the Lions, the Bears are set at quarterback, but have a few other major needs that need addressing. In fact, Jay Cutler somewhat quietly had a fantastic season in 2011 and the change of offensive systems could take him to a new level going forward.	No chance
	Led by Matthew Stafford, the Lions are an up-and-coming team. But they have some clear needs to get over that hump and also have a few of their own prominent free agents that they need to deal with.	No chance
	If I were to rank all the NFL teams from 1 to 32 in likelihood of acquiring Manning, Green Bay would be 32nd on that list. The Packers have the best quarterback in the league in Aaron Rodgers and, like Detroit and Chicago, obviously have other needs.	No chance
	Christian Ponder might benefit a great deal from sitting a year and learning behind Manning, but the chances of that happening seem very low. Ponder is rightfully the Vikings' guy.	Low
NFC SOUTH by Pat Yasinskas
	The Falcons are committed to Matt Ryan as their franchise quarterback. He has produced a winning record in each of his first four seasons. He hasn't won a playoff game, but the Falcons aren't about to scrap him for a short-term fix.	No chance
	The Panthers found the first true franchise quarterback in franchise history last year when they took Cam Newton with the first pick in the draft. The Panthers expect Newton to be their quarterback for the next dozen or so years.	No chance
	Before the Saints placed the franchise tag on Drew Brees, it was kind of fun to speculate about the possibility of Manning returning to his hometown. But the Saints made sure there's no chance of getting away, so Manning's only chance of returning to New Orleans is to visit his parents and friends.	No chance
	Manning could give a shot in the arm to a franchise that needs all the help it can get at the box office. But this team isn't looking for a quick fix. In the eyes of ownership, the front office and the coaching staff, Josh Freeman is the franchise quarterback and the Bucs are intent on building their team around him.	No chance
AFC EAST by James Walker
	The Bills already gave QB Ryan Fitzpatrick $59 million. They can't afford to invest that type of money with a second quarterback.	No chance
	The Dolphins have the interest, money and surrounding talent to make Manning-to-Miami a reality. Miami is one of the favorites and eagerly awaits Manning's potential release.	High
	Peyton Manning as Tom Brady's backup? That's laughable.	No chance
	In a perfect world, the Jets would like to add a healthy Manning. But they don't have cap room and have already invested in QB Mark Sanchez for at least one more year.	Medium
AFC WEST by Bill Williamson
	I think John Elway would love to work with Peyton Manning. Legends tend to hang with other legends. Manning could be the perfect short-term answer and allow Tim Tebow to get practice polish.	Medium
	Romeo Crennel has already said the Chiefs would have interest in Manning if he becomes available. This could be Joe Montana all over again.	High
	The Raiders are married to Carson Palmer. They have more pressing needs and they don't have the means.	No chance
	This is Philip Rivers' team. End of story.	No chance
AFC NORTH by Jamison Hensley
	The Ravens are currently talking to Joe Flacco about a long-term contract extension. When someone asked general manager Ozzie Newsome about his interest in Manning, he laughed like it was the best joke he had heard at the NFL combine.	No chance
	The Bengals are building for the future with quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green. Plus, Cincinnati's track record shows owner Mike Brown doesn't go after big-name free agents.	No chance
	There's little question that the Browns need a starting quarterback, but the problem is convincing Manning this is a team that's a quarterback away from going to the Super Bowl. The more likely scenario is signing Matt Flynn in free agency or trading up to draft Robert Griffin III.	Very low
	The Steelers have a starting quarterback who has more Super Bowl rings than Manning. Even if the Steelers wanted Manning, they don't have the cap room to do anything about it.	No chance
AFC SOUTH by Paul Kuharsky
	They don't have the money and Manning doesn't move the way the Texans need a quarterback to move in their bootleg-heavy system.	Very low
	The end is the end. The Colts are ready to move ahead with a change, and it'll be Andrew Luck, not Manning, under center when they next take the field.	No chance
	New owner Shad Khan will make a big splash, but I don't think it'll be with this move. Like it or not, they're moving forward with Blaine Gabbert.	Very low
	Yes, a healthy Manning in Tennessee could spur a Super Bowl charge in Bud Adams' final years. But he's not pushing for it and team brass isn't interested.	Very low