More or Less
After running the numbers, ESPN.com pro football writer John Clayton arrived at a win total for every team in the division for 2012. Is the figure too high, too low or spot on?
| Team | Analysis | Clayton's Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| NFC EAST by Dan Graziano | ||
 | They attacked the secondary by signing Brandon Carr and trading up to draft Morris Claiborne, and they added an inside linebacker in Dan Connor. But the rest of the team looks basically the same -- a potentially elite offense with Tony Romo throwing to Miles Austin and Dez Bryant and handing off to DeMarco Murray, but the same old questions in the middle of the offensive line and on defense. | 9-7 |
 | This would, of course, match the Giants' win total from last year, when they became the first team ever to win the NFC East and the Super Bowl with fewer than 10 wins in a non-shortened regular season. | 9-7 |
 | As disappointing as last year's Eagles were, they still managed to win eight games. Upgrades to the linebacker corps, a tightening up of the coverage schemes and an improved comfort level in the new defense all stand as reasons to believe things will be better in Philadelphia this year. | 10-6 |
 | The Redskins' biggest need was, of course, quarterback, and they dealt four high draft picks to get one. Robert Griffin III carries the hopes of a desperate fan base and the promise of being better than Rex Grossman, even as a rookie. | 6-10 |
| NFC WEST by Mike Sando | ||
 | Kevin Kolb's disappointing first season in Arizona gives skeptics an easy reason to discount the Cardinals. There's a risk in discounting them too much. I'll project more than seven victories for Arizona. | 7-9 |
 | Clayton's projection seems reasonable. Ten or 11 victories feels about right. That would give the 49ers back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2000-2001. | 10-6 |
 | Coach Jeff Fisher faces the biggest rebuilding project of his career. While his Houston Oilers improved from 2-14 to 7-9 in Fisher's first full season as head coach (1995), that organization had posted seven consecutive winning seasons before its big fall. The Rams are 15-65 over their previous five seasons. They haven't finished a season .500 or better since 2004. | 4-12 |
 | The Seahawks were a quarterback upgrade away from reaching and probably surpassing .500 last season. They upgraded their depth at the position without question. Their as-yet-unnamed starter will probably fare better than incumbent Tarvaris Jackson, who played much of the 2011 season with a torn right pectoral muscle. The team has reason for optimism as a result, but there are still question marks surrounding the position. | 9-7 |
| NFC NORTH by Kevin Seifert | ||
 | The Bears have surrounded Jay Cutler with the best offense he has had since arriving in Chicago, and it could be among the league's most explosive if the offensive line can settle in. The Bears' defense is going to get old at some point, but it appears to have at least one more season of high-level play in it. | 10-6 |
 | The Lions trailed the Bears in the playoff race last season before Cutler was injured. They will return the same team, presumably one that can build off last season's performance, but the division is more competitive now than it was when the Lions clinched last year's playoff spot. | 9-7 |
 | Some of the Packers' 2012 success depends on how their attempts to shore up the defense work out. You can cover for a leaky pass defense in the regular season, but it can spell an early end to a playoff run. | 12-4 |
 | The Vikings are competing in one of the NFL's toughest divisions, against three legitimate playoff contenders. There remain some serious personnel holes -- especially at middle linebacker, safety and nose tackle -- and it will take some time for some of the young players they are counting on to develop. | 3-13 |
| NFC SOUTH by Pat Yasinskas | ||
 | Clayton has the Falcons going 11-5. He also has them as the only NFC South team going to the playoffs. I think the first part is right, but I'm not so sure on the second. The Falcons went 10-6 last season and it was a somewhat disappointing 10-6 because the team went 13-3 in 2010 and thought it had made upgrades. | 11-5 |
 | Clayton has them going 8-8. I think he's being a little conservative. If things break right and the Saints do stumble or the Falcons get caught up in all the pressure they're facing, I could see Carolina winning as many as 10 or 11 games. | 8-8 |
 | I think the Saints still are a team that can win 10 games and go to the playoffs. Yes, it will be difficult without coach Sean Payton. But the Saints upgraded at linebacker with Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne and coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should make the defense better. | 9-7 |
 | The cupboard isn't bare here. The Bucs have stockpiled some nice young talent in recent drafts. Those players haven't completely proven themselves yet. But I think guys such as quarterback Josh Freeman, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and defensive end Adrian Clayborn can prosper under the guidance of new coach Greg Schiano. | 6-10 |
| AFC EAST by James Walker | ||
 | This is a good year for someone to surprise and make a move in the AFC East. The Patriots will be a juggernaut. But second place is wide open, and Buffalo has as good a chance as anyone. | 9-7 |
 | I have been as critical of the Dolphins as anyone this offseason. But this is a tough group that usually plays hard. Miami lacks dynamic playmakers on both sides of the ball but should be a tough out most weeks. I think another 6-10 season is possible. | 4-12 |
 | It's hard to argue with 12 projected wins. It's a safe number for the Patriots. But I'm going to go slightly higher and peg New England for 13 victories. This team is deeper than last year's group that went 13-3. | 12-4 |
 | I doubt the Jets are going to hit eight wins this year. This is a boom-or-bust team that could finish 5-11 or 11-5. The Jets are capable of imploding or exploding on their opponents. | 8-8 |
| AFC WEST by Bill Williamson | ||
 | I think it is a fair number since the team around Peyton Manning is getting better. John Fox is a premier coach and this program is on the rise. I can see Manning being the difference from an 8-8 team in 2011 becoming a 10-6 outfit in 2012. | 10-6 |
 | I have to respectfully, but vehemently disagree with Clayton on this one. While Manning overshadowed the Chiefs this offseason, I think Kansas City had a top-five offseason in the NFL. This roster is stacked. | 7-9 |
 | They have lost some talent and their additions have been modest. Overall, the Raiders are on the track for the long term, but they may have taken a step back for the short term. Yet, I don't think they will be 5-11. There is too much talent on the roster for Oakland to go to 5-11. | 5-11 |
 | Any team with Philip Rivers at quarterback has a puncher's chance. The Chargers were aggressive in free agency and they had a productive draft. If the defense can bounce back, Clayton's number is very attainable. | 9-7 |
| AFC NORTH by Jamison Hensley | ||
 | It's difficult to go against a team that has gone to the playoffs every year under coach John Harbaugh (including two AFC championship games in four seasons), but this is the year when the off-the-field distractions cause the Ravens to drop off a bit. Baltimore will fall just shy of Clayton's predicted total and finish with nine wins. | 10-6 |
 | The Bengals are determined to put together consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 1981-82, so they'll surpass Clayton's forecast. Cincinnati can reach a double-digit win total and make a run at the division title if quarterback Andy Dalton takes the next step in his progression. | 8-8 |
 | Clayton is spot on with four wins, although I will put an asterisk by it. The Browns will be a much better team despite not improving on last season's win total. A challenging schedule, a tough division and a lack of playmakers in the passing game will lead to the fifth straight season of at least 11 losses. | 4-12 |
 | Clayton is in the right neighborhood, but the Steelers will get one more win than his forecasted total. As long as Ben Roethlisberger remains healthy and the Steelers have a top-five defense, Pittsburgh will contend for a Super Bowl every season. | 10-6 |
| AFC SOUTH by Paul Kuharsky | ||
 | A healthier Houston should be a better team and could rate with the very best in the AFC. But a schedule I view as more difficult prevents me from thinking the Texans will fare more than a game better and they could very well be the same. | 10-6 |
 | In their first eight games, the new-look Colts face Minnesota, Jacksonville, the Jets, Browns, Dolphins and Titans. While all of those teams will expect to beat a rebuilding team, none of them is a lock to do so. If the Colts can play well over the first half of the season, they could well be in position to make a significant step forward from last year's total of two wins. | 4-12 |
 | Call me crazy, and I know a lot of you might join Clayton in doing so, but I think the Jaguars will be at least a touch better than Clayton thinks and could even land in second place. | 6-10 |
 | Last year's 9-7 record was padded by a Week 17 win in Houston that meant nothing to the Texans. Can the Titans in Mike Munchak's second year turn around and match or surpass it? I'm skeptical. | 8-8 |
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