QBR ranks: Revisiting Kaepernick's night
November, 21, 2012
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Jeff Chiu/AP PhotoIn his first regular-season start, 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick had the highest QBR score in Week 11.
Just about everything Colin Kaepernick tried Monday night worked for the San Francisco 49ers' second-year quarterback.
Kaepernick completed 10 of 14 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown when the Chicago Bears rushed him with four or fewer defenders. He completed 6 of 9 for 100 yards and a touchdown when the Bears sent five or more.
Kaepernick stressed the Bears' defense inside and out during the 49ers' 32-7 victory at Candlestick Park.
That included completing 7 of 8 passes for 124 yards on passes delivered inside the yard-line numbers. Only Aaron Rodgers has had a higher passer rating (136.2 to Kaepernick's 118.0) against the Bears on these interior throws.
Kaepernick did even more damage when striking outside the numbers. This was particularly impressive, in my view, because the Bears had picked off 11 passes and allowed only three touchdowns on these perimeter throws before Monday night.
Quarterbacks generally must anticipate well and/or throw with velocity to complete these throws consistently. Kaepernick completed 9 of 15 attempts for 119 yards and two scores when targeting receivers outside the numbers. His 124.7 passer rating on these throws was easily the best for a quarterback facing the Bears this season. Andrew Luck (28.9), Rodgers (16.7), Sam Bradford (0.0), Tony Romo (48.2), Cam Newton (39.7) and Matt Schaub (37.3) couldn't make a dent against the Bears on these throws.
Kaepernick relied heavily on longer passes. His 23 attempts traveled 10.2 yards past the line of scrimmage on average. Regular starter Alex Smith has a 7.5-yard average this season. Smith exceeded Kaepernick's 10.2-yard average in a game one time this season (10.8 against the New York Jets) and two other times since 2008, the earliest year for which charting data was available through ESPN Stats & Information.
The average distance is 8.2 yards for all NFL passes this season.
One game isn't much to go on, of course, but there was much to like about how Kaepernick played in his first regular-season start. He seemed to handle presnap responsibilities without incident. The 49ers vary their personnel groupings to an unusual degree even by NFL standards, putting pressure on the quarterback to handle all the variations. Kaepernick appeared in control all the way.
Total QBR will sometimes call into question a high NFL passer rating. Quarterbacks taking sacks, throwing only shorter passes or racking up stats in garbage time will not fare as well as their raw passing stats might indicate.
In this case, QBR validated the way Kaepernick led his team to victory. Kaepernick's QBR score was 97.5 out of 100, the fourth-highest for a 49ers starter over the past five seasons. The Bears are allowing a 24.2 QBR score this season, second-best in the NFL (Houston, 24.1). A newly developed version of the QBR metric adjusts for opponent strength. That version pumped up the 97.5 score to 99.5, the third-highest opponent-adjusted score in a game over the past five seasons (minimum 20 action plays). Michael Vick's memorable 2010 game against Washington -- the one in which he topped 300 yards passing and 50 yards rushing with six total touchdowns -- heads the list. Fifty is average.
With that, let's check out how NFC West quarterbacks fared for Week 11 in relation to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point (thanks to ESPN Stats & Information for the charting info):
- Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (97.5 QBR, 133.1 NFL rating): Kaepernick completed 16 of 23 passes for 243 yards with two touchdowns, zero interceptions, one sack totaling seven yards and no turnovers. He rushed three times for 11 yards and zero rushing first downs. He had nine first downs passing. Kaepernick had hurt St. Louis with his scrambling when the Rams sent four or fewer pass-rushers. His running wasn't a factor against the Bears even when Chicago sat back in coverage. Nearly flawless pass protection helped Kaepernick shred Chicago regardless of how hard the Bears tried to pressure him.
- Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (24.0 QBR, 67.4 NFL rating): Bradford completed 23 of 44 passes for 170 yards with two touchdowns, one interception, one sack and one lost fumble during the Rams' 27-13 home defeat to the New York Jets. The Jets returned Bradford's fumble 38 yards to set up the go-ahead touchdown. Bradford finished this game with his second-lowest QBR score of the season. He scored a 3.9 against the Bears when he completed 18 of 35 passes for 152 yards with no touchdowns and two picks. Bradford did not appear to have open receivers. Bradford completed 9 of 14 passes for 93 yards and both touchdowns with a 65.8 QBR when the Jets sent five or more pass-rushers. He completed 14 of 29 passes for 77 yards and a pick when the Jets applied standard pressure. This suggests Bradford had open receivers when the Jets sacrificed coverage, but not so much when they dropped eight.
- Ryan Lindley, Arizona Cardinals (4.7 QBR, 52.9 NFL rating): Lindley completed 9 of 20 passes (45.0 percent) for 64 yards with no TDs, no INTs and three sacks during a 23-19 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons. Lindley had one fumble, which the Falcons returned for a touchdown. The Cardinals have not announced whether Lindley will remain in the lineup against St. Louis in Week 12. He made very little positive impact against the Falcons. Lindley did throw accurately to Larry Fitzgerald on a fourth-and-2 play when Arizona was driving in Falcons territory late in the game. Fitzgerald caught the ball initially, but he did not maintain control of it through contact with the ground. A reception there would have put Lindley in position to make a difference.
- John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (0.8 QBR, 39.6 NFL rating): Skelton completed 2 of 7 passes for six yards with zero touchdowns, zero interceptions and zero sacks. He had no rushing attempts. He had zero passing first downs. Skelton missed Fitzgerald in the end zone for a touchdown. The Cardinals benched him after that miscue.
The QBR metric was designed to measure quarterback play as it relates to winning under the thinking that QB play is increasingly important. Teams with the higher QBR scores went 14-0 in Week 11.
The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 11, provided they played enough to qualify for inclusion.
The column showing point above average reveals the "number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of an average quarterback."