Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Which teams 'won' draft-day trades
By Mike Sando
A few thoughts after using the widely circulated draft-value chart to evaluate the 18 trades involving only 2011 choices during the recently completed NFL draft:
- Some teams use their own charts reflecting different values for the selections. The trades themselves define actual values, of course. The chart serves only as a point of reference.
- The Cleveland Browns' big trade with the Atlanta Falcons does not appear here because it also included 2012 considerations.
- Once the Browns moved down from No. 6 to No. 27, the value chart says they paid a 120-point premium to move back up to No. 21 in a deal with Kansas City. That was the largest gross discrepancy among qualifying trades. What does 120 points represent? The chart values the 95th overall selection, three spots from the bottom of the third round, as worth that much.
- The chart says Jacksonville overpaid by 110 points in moving up from the 16th to 10th choice to select Blaine Gabbert. The difference is inconsequential if Gabbert becomes a good quarterback. And history says the Jaguars fared OK in sending the 16th and 49th picks to the Redskins for No. 10. In 2000, the New York Jets sent the 16th and 48th picks to San Francisco for the 12th pick (used for Julian Peterson). The Jaguars gained an additional two spots in the first round for essentially the same price.
- The value chart is arguably outdated, particularly near the top of the draft, but most of the trades line up pretty evenly. In some cases, teams are willing to pay a premium for a shot at landing players they consider worth the additional price.
The chart breaks out the trades, with point valuations in parenthesis. For example, the Browns sent the 27th and 70th picks, valued at 920 points, to Kansas City for the 21st pick, valued at 800 points. The 120-point differential shows up in the right column.