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Monday, October 5, 2009
Follow-up: Prediction model goes 11-1 Sunday

Posted by's Mike Sando

Win Chance Visitor Home Win Chance
.680 Giants Chiefs .320
.610 Bengals Browns .390
.590 Ravens Patriots .410
.500 Bills Dolphins .500
.490 Titans Jaguars .510
.470 Chargers Steelers .530
.420 Packers Vikings .580
.320 Raiders Texans .680
.280 Cowboys Broncos .720
.270 Jets Saints .730
.230 Rams 49ers .770
.200 Lions Bears .800
.200 Bucs Redskins .800
.130 Seahawks Colts .870

The chart shows Week 4 predictions from Brian Burke's model at Advanced NFL Stats.

Some questioned the 72 percent probability for the Broncos to beat the Cowboys, but Champ Bailey helped make the prediction come true. The Advanced NFL Stats model was "wrong" only on the Ravens-Patriots game. The model characterized the Bills-Dolphins game as a toss-up, while favoring the Vikings to beat the Packers in the pending Monday night game.

The model emerged from Sunday with an 11-1 record in games for which it projected a winner. As Burke wrote heading into Week 4:

For whatever reason, my model has been remarkably successful since its inception three seasons ago, and each year it has been slightly more accurate in predicting winners than looking at the consensus favorites. This is no small accomplishment, as luck plays a large part of many game outcomes.

Sometimes its predictions make you scratch your head, especially early in the season when most fans still carry notions of how good certain teams should be. It has its flaws, but it is brutally unbiased and hype-free. Of course, now that they are featured on, it’s due for an off year!

The model uses past game statistics to project how teams might fare. Gotta love those results.