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GREEN BAY, Wis. -- The first inkling came on the Green Bay Packers' seventh offensive play Sunday. On third down from the New York Giants' 29-yard line, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers did what he often does when a play breaks down. So did receiver Greg Jennings.

Rodgers stepped up in the pocket to escape Jacquian Williams, the Giants' blitzing linebacker. Jennings, in turn, took off toward the end zone. The Giants' secondary lost track of him. Jennings turned to look for the ball over his left shoulder. Rodgers threw it over his right. The ball fell incomplete at the 4-yard line, and the Packers settled for a field goal.

At that moment, I turned to someone in the press box and remarked how rarely we have seen the Packers miss easy touchdown opportunities during this historic season.

The Packers' season ended Sunday with an offensive thud, a 37-20 loss to the New York Giants that was wholly out of character and inexplicable on most every level. And I'm sure as you review how the Packers reached such an unsatisfying conclusion, some will recite a well-rehearsed litany of their season-long defensive problems. A few of you will wonder why Lambeau Field is no longer the greatest home-field advantage in NFL postseason history; the Packers are 2-4 in their past six playoff games there after winning 13 consecutively from 1939-2001.

But here, as they say, is the stone-cold truth: One of the most explosive and efficient offenses in NFL history -- the one that almost single-handedly was responsible for a 15-1 regular-season record -- stumbled at the starting line and never regained its footing. Credit goes to the Giants' defense for scheming to take away the deep pass, but independent of that, I think we can agree it's been a while since we've seen the Packers' offense play so poorly. ESPN Stats & Information had it with six drops, tied for the most by any NFL team in a game this season. The Packers committed a season-high four turnovers, including a fumble by Rodgers as he was trying to hit a wide-open Jennings in the third quarter. They had only two plays go for more than 20 yards, a 29-yard run by running back James Starks and a 21-yard pass to receiver Randall Cobb once the game was out of hand.

"This year," receiver Jordy Nelson said, "we've made the easy plays into big plays. And we didn't make the easy plays today. That's what hurts you. Every once in a while, you'll get a big shot, but if you can't make the easy plays, you aren't going to make any plays."

I couldn't have put it better if I tried. Why that happened, however, will be a mental mystery that will haunt the Packers all offseason.

How can you explain how a team that dropped 30 passes in 16 regular season games dropped six in one playoff game? What causes a team to commit four turnovers in one game when it had only 14 in the regular season? What made fullback John Kuhn fumble for the first time in his career? Why didn't Rodgers slide away from Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora, as he usually does, on his third-quarter miscue?

"I ain't God, so I can't tell you why we were out of synch," tight end Jermichael Finley said. "We just didn't play our style of ball."

It would be easy to say the Packers were rusty after a playoff bye week. And I guess we should note that Rodgers hadn't played since Dec. 25 and Jennings since Dec. 11. Is it that simple? Were the Packers rusty? Perhaps, but at some point, you must wonder if we were holding them to an impossible standard.

What Sunday's mistakes told me was how much the Packers grew to depend on elite -- and not just great -- play from their offense on a weekly basis. The Packers were an elite team as long as their offense scored at a rate that left them with the second-highest point total in NFL history. But as soon as a few mistakes piled up, they got wiped out of the playoffs by a team that won its division with a 9-7 record.

"I felt like we had a pretty good rhythm," Rodgers said. "We moved the ball pretty effectively. We just had some drops and some uncharacteristic turnovers. … We just had some chances and didn't make the most of them."

None was more critical than Rodgers' misfire to Finley on third-and-five from the Giants' 39-yard line in the third quarter. With the Packers trailing 20-13, Finley ran a slant route and was wide open for a first down at about the 25-yard line. Rodgers threw him a fastball that sailed wide and off Finley's fingertips. Rodgers was sacked on fourth down, and the Packers never had an opportunity to tie the game again.

"I missed my spot a little bit," Rodgers said. Finley added: "It was out in front of me. I put one hand out. I tried to get it. I have to catch that ball …. It was one of those plays I couldn't make."

Those are the types of plays we grew accustomed to the Packers making this season, be it a sharp throw-and-catch on third-and-5 or an ad lib that leads to Jennings getting wide open in the end zone. To be sure, the Giants ran an aggressive scheme designed to take away their deep pass with "off" coverage but also flood intermediate routes with maximum coverage. Only eight of Rodgers' 46 attempts traveled 15 yards in the air, and he completed only two of them.

But regardless of the situation this season, the Packers have relied on their offense to bail them out. Even as they jogged off the field trailing 20-10 at halftime, there was no sense of panic.

"We thought going in with the way we'd be scoring on offense, the game wasn't that far away from us," said nose tackle B.J. Raji.

For the first time all season, however, the Packers offense dropped the ball -- and the Packers weren't a team equipped to compensate for it. We all know what happened. The Packers will spend the next six months figuring out the how and the why. But in the end, all they'll have to show for one of the greatest regular seasons in team history is one of their most surprising conclusions. Not everyone thought the Packers would repeat as Super Bowl champions, but I'm not sure many thought their offense would bring them down.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Deep in the bowels of Lambeau Field on Sunday night, America's youngest 65-year-old practically bounced up to the podium, a grin creasing his famously red face as he broke down his latest huge coaching achievement.

When you push yourself as hard as Tom Coughlin pushes himself, you have to revel in nights like this. The New York Giants had just crushed the 15-1 Green Bay Packers, 37-20, to move into the NFC Championship Game, and Coughlin finds himself in the middle of a postseason run every bit as delightfully surprising as the one on which he took the Giants four years ago.

"Just very happy," Coughlin said, and who can blame him? This is a remarkable coaching achievement he's pulled off. His team looked dead in the water just four weeks ago, sitting at 7-7 and in second place after a miserable home loss to the Redskins. The story in New York was about whether he would be fired if the Giants didn't make the playoffs, and the consensus seemed to be that the Giants would have little choice.

Four games and four victories later, such talk has turned preposterous. Coughlin, whose contract runs through 2012, has put himself in line for a multi-year extension. This run with this team is establishing him -- if he hadn't already done so -- as one of the elite head coaches in the game. If he wins his next two games, he becomes a two-time Super Bowl champion and, quite frankly, people are going to start to ask whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

"There's nobody outside of this room who believed we could get where we are right now," Giants left tackle David Diehl said. "You go back a month, and it was all, 'Should Coughlin be fired?' But he knew what we had here, and we knew what we had here, and we used all of that for motivation."

The mark of a great coach is his ability to identify the kind of team and the kind of players he has and coach accordingly. Bum Phillips famously said that what made Don Shula great was that "he could take his'n and beat your'n, or he could take your'n and beat his'n." Coughlin is of that school. At a time when so many coaches seem to be slaves to their own system, or seek to have control over roster construction, Coughlin sees his role more simply. His is not to mope and complain that the team didn't do more in free agency, or that defensive starters dropped like flies in the preseason. His is to figure out how to win with what he has. And as he did four years ago, when he tore through Dallas and Green Bay before taking out the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl, he has figured out how to push exactly the right buttons with a roster that didn't look playoff-caliber for most of this season.

"The way the leadership part works is, it starts with the coach," Giants safety Deon Grant said. "And what we have here is a coach who knows his team. He knows how to talk to the veterans in this locker room, when to challenge people, when to lighten up. You want a leader who believes in you, and in order to believe in you, he's got to know you."

Coughlin knows his team. He knew, after that Redskins loss, that the way to approach the following week was to build his players up rather than tear into them. They have responded, and are playing with a champion's level of confidence at exactly the right time of year. No fewer than four players in their locker room said Sunday night, "I knew we were going to win this game," and every single one of them was convincing and sincere.

"We've got a lot of confidence right now," running back Ahmad Bradshaw said. "We've been here before, a lot of us, and we've been here together. And I think that helps us a lot."

This really is starting to feel like four years ago all over again, and the reason why is the seasoned, even-keel performance of the leaders who keyed that playoff run. Eli Manning is playing quarterback at an incredibly high level, and Coughlin is delivering the right message during the week and projecting cool, experienced certainty during the games.

"Our coach is always consistent with his message," defensive lineman Chris Canty said. "That's a big deal, because it makes it easy to buy in. Confidence comes from demonstrated performance, and we have people in our building who have some pretty good records."

Sunday was Coughlin's sixth career playoff road win, one short of the all-time record held by a guy you may have heard of named Tom Landry. That's heady company, and it says a lot about the advantage Coughlin gives the Giants at this time of year. To have a coach who's not going to be surprised or thrown off by any situation, who has shown a sincere belief in you and earned your reciprocal belief in him -- that's the kind of stuff that allows a team to keep its head in intense playoff games.

"Success breeds confidence," Coughlin said. "And right now they're a pretty confident group."

That starts at the top, and while he would scoff at the notion, the fact that the Giants are one of the final four NFL teams left standing is a direct result of one of the finest coaching jobs of Coughlin's fine coaching career.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- A few thoughts on the New York Giants' 37-20 playoff victory over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

What it means: Well, it means the Giants are one game away from the Super Bowl. The defeated the 15-1 Packers on the Packers' home field and now get a chance to avenge another of their regular-season losses next week in San Francisco. It also seems to give credence to the theory that playing at playoff-level intensity in the weeks leading up to the playoffs can give a team an advantage.

Who are these guys?: These are not the same Giants that were losing four straight games to fall to .500 and into second place a little more than a month ago. We knew they were tough, and that Eli Manning was a fourth-quarter assassin. But during those tough November/December days, it did not appear as though the Giants had the manpower to win these kinds of games against these kinds of teams. They are healthier now, and they look as focused, driven and confident as any team left in the field. And they are a legitimate threat to bring home the fourth Super Bowl trophy in franchise history.

Discipline deep: The Giants looked lost in coverage in the first quarter, as they did for most of the season. But they tightened up in the second and made plays in the secondary all day when it counted. Green Bay helped out by dropping its share of passes, but Antrel Rolle led the way for a clearly fired-up Giants secondary, and for maybe the first time all year it looked as though the front four was feeding off what the guys on the back end were doing. Michael Boley got two sacks from the linebacker position as the Giants tried everything they could to get Aaron Rodgers to stop beating them with his legs. Most importantly, the Giants stayed disciplined in the secondary, so that even when they didn't break up the pass, there was a safety and/or a cornerback there to keep the gain from turning into a big, backbreaking one. It wasn't always pretty, but they did an excellent job of keeping the Packers' explosive offense in front of them, and they benefited as a result.

Winning the turnover battle: The Packers are plus-23 in the turnover category during the regular season. But the Kansas City Chiefs -- until Sunday, the only team to have beaten them -- didn't turn the ball over at all against them. And the Giants had a 3-1 turnover edge in Sunday's game. Manning threw an interception, but the Giants recovered three Green Bay fumbles to seize the edge in a category that routinely decides games in the NFL.

Who's No. 1?: Victor Cruz has been the headline-grabber in New York this year, and for good reason. But Hakeem Nicks showed everybody he's still the best wide receiver the Giants have. Nicks turned in the long catch-and-run that's becoming a Giants' staple -- a 66-yard touchdown catch in the first quarter. He caught the Manning Hail Mary in the end zone that gave the Giants a shocking 20-10 halftime lead. He finished with seven catches for 165 yards and made the biggest plays of the day.

Big plays at the right time: The Giants were 8-for-15 on third-down conversions for the game. The Packers were 6-for-11, which might have been the story if the game had swung the other way. But on this day, the Giants had the better offense.

What's next: The Giants will travel to San Francisco, where they will play the 49ers in the NFC Championship game at 6:30 pm ET. The winner of that game will advance to Super Bowl XLVI two weeks later in Indianapolis.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Some thoughts from a stunned Lambeau Field following the Green Bay Packers' 37-20 loss to the New York Giants:

What it means: The Packers saved their worst outing of the season for the playoffs, and it led to an unexpected and deeply disappointing end to a 15-1 season. The Giants outplayed them in every way imaginable, and the Packers didn't look much like a team that had won 21 of its previous 22. The result detracted again from the postseason mystique of Lambeau Field, where the Packers have now lost four of their past six playoff games. Two of those losses have been to the Giants, who also ended the Packers' 2007 season in the NFC Championship Game.

Rare mistakes: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers said during the week that he didn't believe in the concept of "rust" for a team coming off a playoff bye. Call it whatever you want. The Packers made mistakes that simply didn't happen during the regular season. Fullback John Kuhn lost the first fumble of his career. Rodgers missed receiver Greg Jennings for what would have been an easy touchdown in the first quarter. Rodgers also lost a fumble, on a second-quarter sack by Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora, for the first time this season. The normally sure-handed Ryan Grant fumbled for only the second time this season in the fourth quarter. And depending on how tough of a grader you are, the Packers dropped anywhere from four to eight passes. One was a third-quarter pass to Jennings, who had a step on safety Antrel Rolle in single coverage in the end zone.

Defense tightens up: The big fear surrounding the Packers this season was that a hot quarterback would knock them and their porous pass defense out of the playoffs. Things seemed to be headed in that direction after Giants quarterback Eli Manning threw for 274 yards in the first half, capped by a 37-yard pass to receiver Hakeem Nicks on a Hail Mary. But it's going to be tough to affix too much responsibility to the defense for this game. The Packers tightened significantly in the second half, and the Giants didn't have a single first down in the third quarter. Manning threw for 56 yards in the second half. That should have given the Packers' offense enough of an opportunity to even up the game if it was up to it. It wasn't. They couldn't get the ball downfield at all against the Giants defense, and their longest play of the game was a 29-yard run by James Starks in the third quarter.

Key play: Backed by a bit of momentum and hoping to tie the game early in the fourth quarter, the Packers faced a third-and-five at the Giants' 39-yard line. Tight end Jermichael Finley was wide open at about the 25-yard line, but Rodgers' throw was just off his outstretched fingertips. It wasn't immediately clear whether Rodgers overthrew Finley or if Finley stopped his route early. But it was one of the Packers' biggest missed opportunities in this game. Rodgers was sacked on fourth down, and the Giants converted the ensuing possession into a 35-yard field goal to make it a two-score game midway through the fourth quarter.

Injury report: Kuhn didn't return after injuring his right knee in the third quarter.

What's next: The Packers have a young and deep team set up for long-term success. They'll need to address the contract situation of Finley, who is a pending free agent. It will take some time to get over Sunday's disappointment, but the Packers' future should be bright.

SAN FRANCISCO — There could be no other way for the San Francisco 49ers.

Alex Smith and Vernon Davis, once the weary symbols for a proud franchise in tatters, had to be the ones delivering San Francisco to its epic 36-32 victory Saturday.

This was how the 49ers would atone for a lost decade — Smith to Davis at Candlestick Park, the Niners advancing to the NFC Championship Game in Jim Harbaugh's magical first season as head coach.

"The Catch" has company in 49ers lore.

Davis, having spent more time in his playbook than his thesaurus lately, proposed "The Grab" to describe the 14-yard touchdown pass he caught from Smith to shock New Orleans and all the doubters in a Red Sea of delirious 49ers fans.

That was the only time Davis, he of seven receptions for 180 yards and two scores, came up short all afternoon.

A quarter-century after John Elway authored "The Drive" for Denver, Smith and Davis did the Broncos one better, albeit without a Super Bowl berth on the line quite yet.

"The Drives" — plural — vanquished Drew Brees and the most prolific offense in NFL history. A 49ers team with five fourth-quarter comeback victories during the regular season needed Smith to outduel Brees not once, but twice in the final three minutes.

"It might be time to give Alex some credit, huh?" Harbaugh said.

Smith passed for three touchdowns, ran 28 yards for another and suffered no interceptions in the biggest game of his life. Brees was often brilliant, especially in the clutch, but he threw two picks and joined a growing list of elite quarterbacks coming up short against the 49ers.

Down 24-23 with 4:02 left, Smith beat the Saints' blitz with a 37-yard sideline strike to Davis — a big-time throw befitting his status as a No. 1 overall draft choice. Then came the 28-yard touchdown run on a quarterback keeper, left tackle Joe Staley leading and leveling Saints safety Isa Abdul-Quddus.

"I've never felt so drained after a football game and I consider myself to be a very in-shape lineman," Staley said.

Brees' immediate answer, a 66-yard scoring strike to Jimmy Graham, would have finished a team with a second-rate quarterback. It would have finished the 49ers in any of the previous eight or nine seasons. All Smith did was complete 5 of 6 passes in the final 1:32, including a 47-yarder to Davis and the 14-yard winner.

Time to reassess.

"He beat Ben Roethlisberger on 'Monday Night Football', he beat Eli Manning in a big game, he beat Drew Brees, he beat Matthew Stafford," safety Donte Whitner said. "I think it's time to start mentioning him as a good quarterback in the National Football League."

The 49ers should not have needed validation for their 13-3 season, but a one-and-done showing against a team with an MVP-caliber quarterback would have strengthened familiar narratives about postseason football in the passing age.

The fact is, the 49ers put the game in Smith's hands to a degree that didn't always seem wise, but the confidence they showed in him became self-fulfilling -- as it was all season.

"We had a lot of confidence in Alex," Staley said. "You saw what he could do today against a great team. He came up huge. Played an amazing game."

The process began a year ago when Harbaugh reached out to Smith and even played catch with him, doing all he could to salvage a player-team relationship both sides previously thought was finally nearing an end. Smith's interest in returning despite all that had come before showed the mettle Harbaugh demanded from the position. Momentum built as Harbaugh heaped praise upon Smith all offseason, installed him as the starter and backed him even when the offense failed to exceed 226 yards in any of its first three games.

Later, with Smith putting up efficient passing stats but hardly carrying the offense, Harbaugh pushed him for the Pro Bowl — up there with Aaron Rodgers and Brees among the elites.

The 49ers called more than twice as many pass plays as runs against New Orleans. Instead of running out the clock before halftime, they pushed for more points and paid with their first turnover since Week 12, a Smith fumble when the Saints sacked him. Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman obviously didn't buy the thinking that San Francisco would have to rush for 200 yards, keeping Brees off the field to better their chances.

"We were taking some shots all game long," Harbaugh said. "I thought Alex played extremely bold."

The Saints did what they do: blitz and blitz some more. They backed off some in the fourth quarter, but Smith completed all six of his attempts in the quarter when the Saints sent four or fewer rushers, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The beauty Saturday was that Smith refused to gloat.

"We're still playing — that's what it means and that feels great," Smith said, again wearing his Harbaugh-issued blue work shirt with the "Alex" patch on front.

The shirts reflect the blue-collar mentality Harbaugh has sought to instill.

The game programs issued at Candlestick carried the old Bo Schembechler mantra: "The team, the team, the team."

This was a team victory, of course. The 49ers' defense forced three first-quarter turnovers and five overall. Frank Gore's 42-yard rush came when the 49ers needed it badly. Defensive end Justin Smith willed his way to a third-down sack when the game was slipping away from the 49ers' offense. Harbaugh pointed to the kickoff coverage team.

"We are a much more complete team than anybody gives us credit for," Staley said.

And what more could be said about Davis? No player on the 49ers had more growing up to do than the one San Francisco drafted sixth overall in 2006. Davis has gone from out of control to consummate team player and professional. His impassioned halftime speech came after the 49ers led only 17-14 despite forcing four first-half turnovers.

"One shot, that was the message," Davis said. "We only have one shot and if we don't take advantage of it, we go home. There was a lot of fire in me at that moment. Something just hit me and I had to let it out."

Davis backed up his talk. He beat safety Roman Harper for a 49-yard touchdown early. He had 47- and 37-yard catches late, a 20-yarder in the second quarter and, of course, the winner. The ever-secretive Harbaugh drew laughs by revealing the play's name to be Vernon Post. Davis, having endured the 49ers' recent past, was more reflective.

"Along the way, there has been a lot of stress, doubt and criticism," Davis said. "Especially for Alex. But when I look at that kid, I look at him as a warrior. You can just imagine a little kid standing there and getting picked on in grade school. Rocks thrown at him, spit on. Alex has been there. I just wish him all the best."

Smith allowed himself a fleeting moment of reflection.

"It's been such a great year, such a great group of guys, coaches and players," he said. "We love coming to work every day. I know I do. We get one more week, at least."

Drew Brees is capable of many great things. But you can’t go to the miracle well 63 times in a game and expect it to produce every time.

That was proved Saturday as Brees and the New Orleans Saints lost 36-32 in a divisional playoff game to the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park.

History will tell us this was one of the best games in playoff annals, coming as it did with four lead changes in the final 5 minutes and San Francisco’s winning touchdown with 9 seconds remaining. History will be right, because this game was exciting all the way around.

But the surrounding hysteria might get in the way of history, so let’s go ahead and go on the record with one very important item that cannot be overlooked: You can’t go deep into the postseason with Brees and Brees alone.

That’s what the Saints tried to do, and it came painfully close to working. They had Brees attempt 63 passes. He completed 40 of them, and it looked like he had the miracle the Saints needed when he hit tight end Jimmy Graham with a 66-yard touchdown pass with 1:37 left.

But football -- particularly when it’s in the postseason and on the road -- is about much more than a quarterback, even if he’s surrounded with Graham, Darren Sproles and Marques Colston.

You must have defense, special teams and a running game. The Saints had none of those things against the 49ers, and that’s why they lost.

They simply asked too much from Brees, and they should have known better.

Just go back and look at New Orleans’ three losses during the regular season. There’s a little lesson here.

In the opener at Lambeau Field, Brees attempted 49 passes -- a number that would end up as his regular-season high. He lost a shootout to Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, and there’s no shame in that. But look closely at the Saints' other two losses, because they came against inferior opponents. In an Oct. 16 defeat to Tampa Bay, the last game the Buccaneers won, Brees attempted 45 passes.

Oh, and then there’s that inexplicable loss to St. Louis two weeks later. Brees attempted 44 passes in that game. Win either the St. Louis or Tampa Bay game, and the Saints are the No. 2 seed and playing at home, where they were undefeated in the regular season.

There’s a line of demarcation where too much Brees becomes a bad thing. It’s somewhere in the low 40s. Yeah, Brees threw 44 times in victories against Houston and Jacksonville, 45 times in a three-point win over Carolina and 47 in a December victory against Tennessee. But none of those was pretty, and Houston was the only playoff team among that bunch.

In games in which Brees attempted 43 or fewer passes, the Saints were 8-0. They also were at their best in those games. They had a running game, some defense and no huge mistakes by the special teams.

But the Saints apparently didn’t notice that trend. They put too much on Brees on Saturday, and they did have some valid reasons for that. Brees didn’t help matters with two interceptions, and the Saints turned the ball over three times in the first quarter.

They fell behind 17-0. Then, they let Brees bring them back but didn’t do anything to help him. The running game, which had been so much better than last season’s, was nonexistent. Sproles, Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas combined for only 13 rushing attempts and 32 yards.

Thomas left the game with an apparent concussion after losing a fumble near the goal line in the first quarter. Without him, the New Orleans offense became predictable. When Ivory was in the game, it was obvious the Saints were running. When Sproles was in there, it was obvious they were throwing.

And they threw way too often against a defense that can generate pressure. On his 63 drop-backs, Brees was sacked three times. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Brees was under duress an additional 17 times. When under duress, Brees completed five of 16 attempts (31.3 percent). Brees also threw away five passes after throwing away only eight during the regular season and in the first round of the playoffs.

Again, there should have been a lesson from the regular season. The most times Brees was sacked or under duress (17) was in the St. Louis loss. Against Green Bay, Brees was sacked or under duress on 12 of his drop-backs.

The more often you have Brees drop back, the more you’re asking for trouble, especially when you have two All-Pros at guard but very ordinary tackles.

However, the biggest letdown of all came from the defense. It happened twice after Brees brought the Saints all the way back to take the lead.

The New Orleans defense was pretty good in the 2009 championship season, but it’s fallen off dramatically since then. After doing a decent job against the 49ers most of the game, it totally collapsed in the final four minutes.

The Saints allowed Alex Smith to score on a 28-yard run, the longest of his career. No one should ever confuse the slow-footed Smith with Steve Young. But now, in addition to Young, he’s going to get compared to Joe Montana.

After the late touchdown to Graham, Smith took the 49ers on a drive for the ages. He hit tight end Vernon Davis with a 14-yard touchdown pass to win the game with 9 seconds left. Matched up against strong safety Roman Harper most of the game, Davis finished with seven catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns.

The Saints should have known going into the game that Harper on Davis was a huge mismatch, but they kept letting it happen and they kept making Smith look great when it mattered most.

This game showed what’s been suspected since after the Saints won their Super Bowl. Their defense isn’t that good anymore.

That’s obvious now, and there are bound to be ripples, maybe even big waves, after this loss. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ contract just expired, and there already has been speculation he could be joining his old buddy Jeff Fisher in St. Louis. Coach Sean Payton, who once gave up part of his own salary to get Williams, might not stand in the way of a move after this one.

It’s going to be a busy offseason for the Saints. They must sign Brees to a new contract because his deal is up. The Saints have other expensive potential free agents such as Colston and guard Carl Nicks.

There’s no doubt the Saints will keep Brees and, in the process, probably make him the league’s highest-paid quarterback. But as they look at their salary-cap situation after taking care of Brees, they should take a long, hard look at their roster.

It’s time for some changes. You can do all sorts of flashy things and break lots of records by letting Brees carry your team. But he can win a championship only when he has some help around him.

It’s time to give Brees that help.

Thoughts on the New Orleans Saints’ 36-32 loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday at Candlestick Park.

What it means: You can’t defy conventional wisdom. In a game that will go down as a postseason classic, the Saints broke almost every rule and tradition. But they still lost in the end, as tight end Vernon Davis scored a touchdown with 9 seconds remaining. That capped a game that had four lead changes in the final 3 minutes, 53 seconds. The Saints came painfully close to proving they could win on the road, outdoors and in the postseason. They almost showed you can turn the ball over five times and still win. They also came close to proving wrong the old adage that defense wins championships. But there were no miracles this time.

What I liked: The game was as exciting as any you’ll ever see. It had drama and surprises from start to finish. San Francisco jumped out to a 17-0 lead at home, but Drew Brees rallied his team and put the Saints right back in the game. New Orleans’ defense played surprisingly well most of the day, right up until the end.

What I didn’t like: New Orleans’ defense folded when it mattered most. Alex Smith, who has never been confused with Tim Tebow, broke loose on a fourth-quarter touchdown run. Then, after Brees put the Saints ahead with a touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham, the defense collapsed again. Smith, who had been considered a bust for most of his career, brought back memories of Steve Young and Joe Montana with his game-winning drive. Davis abused strong safety Roman Harper most of the day, and he did it again when it mattered most.

What’s next: An offseason that’s starting sooner than expected for the Saints. There are some key personnel matters to deal with. Brees is no longer under contract. He undoubtedly will return to the Saints, but he’s going to take up a lot of salary-cap room. With Marques Colston, Carl Nicks and several other key players scheduled to become free agents, the Saints will have to make some big decisions. They also could have change on the coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ contract is expiring, and there is speculation he could be joining his old friend Jeff Fisher in St. Louis.

SAN FRANCISCO -- Thoughts after the San Francisco 49ers' 36-32 divisional playoff victory over the New Orleans Saints on Saturday at Candlestick Park:

What it means: The 49ers are headed to the NFC title game against the winner of the New York Giants-Green Bay Packers game Sunday. They will play at home if the Giants win. They will visit Green Bay if the Packers win. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis showed their playoff mettle in leading the 49ers back from fourth-quarter deficits not once, but twice. This will go down as one of the great games in 49ers history and in NFL postseason history.

What I liked: Smith's winning 14-yard touchdown pass to Davis showed the 49ers were playing to win, not for overtime. On the 49ers' previous drive, Smith's 37-yard strike to Davis up the left sideline and 28-yard touchdown run on a beautifully executed keeper put the 49ers ahead with 2:11 remaining. The 49ers played the game on their terms early, delivering punishing hits while hawking the ball. They forced three first-quarter turnovers and built a 17-3 lead. Dashon Goldson outfoxed Drew Brees to pick off one pass. Tarell Brown made an athletic play for another interception. Smith capitalized on the turnovers, finding Davis for a 49-yard touchdown and Michael Crabtree for a 4-yarder that showed San Francisco has indeed made progress in the red zone recently. Donte Whitner in particular roughed up the Saints, knocking out running back Pierre Thomas with a concussion and pounding tight end Jimmy Graham. The defense held firm after the 49ers suffered their first turnover in six games, right before halftime.

What I didn't like: The 49ers' defense, ranked fourth overall in yards allowed per game during the regular season, gave up go-ahead pass plays covering 44 and 66 yards in the final five minutes. The 49ers forced four first-half turnovers and still led by only three. Smith paid for the aggressive offensive plan, taking third-down sacks, including one that led to the 49ers' first turnover since a Week 12 game at Baltimore. Crabtree, after making his scoring grab, had trouble holding onto the ball on contested throws. The 49ers needed him to win those battles. Goldson went for the big hit on Marques Colston, but Brees led Colston away from trouble, producing a 31-yard gain when the 49ers led by only six points in the third quarter. Frank Gore had seven drops during the season and had a hard time throwing in this game, sending one back to Smith on a hop to sap the potential from a trick play. The 49ers' defense cracked with the game on the line, allowing Darren Sproles' go-ahead 44-yard touchdown reception.

Play calling raised eyebrows: The 49ers' aggressiveness on offense led them away from the ground game. The early passing helped the 49ers take a 14-0 lead with scoring passes to Davis and Crabtree. Pass plays continued outnumbering runs as the game progressed, however, and the 49ers did not get into a rhythm on the ground. The 49ers had 29 pass attempts and 15 rushes through three quarters. They also had taken four sacks to that point, widening the disparity. The strategy was easy to question because the 49ers' wide receivers were not playing at a high level.

Defensive player of the year: It would be tough to argue against the 49ers' Justin Smith, the team's most consistent and consistently dominant player. Smith's brute power won out when he sacked Brees on third down when the 49ers absolutely needed a stop in the third quarter. Later, with 49ers up only three, Smith drove Pro Bowl left tackle Jermon Bushrod into Brees for a sack. These were Reggie White-type plays at critical moments.

Injury notes: The 49ers got receiver Ted Ginn Jr. back from injury, but Ginn spent as much time on the exercise bike as on the field, it seemed. His knee was a problem. Ginn had trouble getting much traction in the return game and was called for pass interference late in the third quarter. Officials flagged receiver Kyle Williams for offensive interference on the next play. Both calls appeared straightforward. The Saints declined both.

What's next: The NFC title game.

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Tim Tebow is about to play the in the coldest weather of his life.

He doesn’t seem bothered.

With more than two hours until game time -- in the Broncos’ AFC divisional playoff game at New England -- Denver quarterback Tim Tebow is on the Gillette Stadium field warming up. He is wearing a sleeveless shirt. The temperature is expected to drop in the low teens for the game. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET.

The Florida product has played in a couple of games in the 30s this season. He was wearing a similar shirt while warming up at Buffalo on Dec. 24. But it wasn’t nearly as cold as it Saturday night in Foxborough.

SAN FRANCISCO — The San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints offered no surprises when declaring which players would be inactive for their NFC divisional playoff game Saturday.

Niners tight end Delanie Walker (broken jaw) and Saints receiver Lance Moore (hamstring) will not play. The Saints ruled out Moore on Friday. The 49ers did not officially rule out Walker at that time, but coach Jim Harbaugh had previously said Walker would almost certainly miss the game.

Also inactive for the 49ers: quarterback Scott Tolzien, receiver Joe Hastings, cornerback Shawntae Spencer, guard Daniel Kilgore, guard Mike Person and nose tackle Ian Williams.

For the Saints: cornerback Leigh Torrence, linebacker Nate Bussey, guard Eric Olsen, tight end Tory Humphrey, tight end John Gilmore and defensive end Turk McBride.

The 49ers will have receivers Ted Ginn Jr. and Kyle Williams after both missed late-season games with injuries. Their presence upgrades the 49ers on special teams as well. Walker's absence makes the 49ers' less dynamic in their two-tight end personnel packages. Walker was also a solid contributor on special teams.

There’s a bit of good news on the injury front for the New Orleans Saints. Linebacker Jonathan Casillas, who had been listed as questionable with a knee injury, is active for Saturday’s playoff game against the 49ers.

As expected, injured receiver Lance Moore (hamstring) and back up tight end John Gilmore (toe) are out.

The other inactives for the Saints are cornerback Leigh Torrence, linebacker Nate Bussey, tight end Tory Humphrey and offensive lineman Eric Olsen.

SAN FRANCISCO -- Pete Carroll, Jeff Fisher and Ken Whisenhunt have all won playoff games as head coaches.

Their NFC West rival, Jim Harbaugh, can join them if the San Francisco 49ers defeat the New Orleans Saints in the NFC divisional round Saturday.

Two playoff victories this postseason would give the NFC West three head coaches with Super Bowls on their résumés.

Fisher and Whisenhunt made Super Bowl appearances as head coaches. The NFC East is the only division featuring more than two current head coaches with Super Bowl experience (Mike Shanahan, Andy Reid and Tom Coughlin).

The chart shows playoff victory counts for current head coaches, by division. Bill Belichick's 15 postseason victories give the AFC East a league-high 19.

Coughlin ranks second with nine. Shanahan has eight, followed by John Fox with six and four coaches with five, including Fisher. Whisenhunt is one of four coaches with four.

SAN FRANCISCO -- Must be a playoff game.

Traffic was backing up from Candlestick Park onto Highway 101 five-plus hours before the San Francisco 49ers' kickoff against New Orleans in the NFC divisional round. It's been years and years since that happened for a weekend game, to my knowledge. Some fans were camped out in RVs since midnight.

This morning, one fan barreling along at about 75 mph rolled down his window to wave a giant 49ers flag, only to have the crisp morning air rip it from his grasp. The flag flew onto the highway and struck another vehicle. Hey, no harm, no foul.

I pulled into the parking lot at about 8:10 a.m. PT -- well in advance of the 1:30 p.m. kickoff and before the scheduled opening of gates -- but cars were already flowing into the lots. I found a spot and had to ask the guy in a van occupying the bordering spot to move the swinging back door from his van (encroachment?). This fan was already grilling chicken. He offered me some, too (in retrospect, I should have taken him up on it.)

Bright sunshine is blasting through the pressbox glass. The field below looks better than I can recall it looking in recent seasons. Both end zones are mostly red, with black and white borders around the "49ERS" and a gold stripe running beneath the "ERS" -- a vintage look. Each 25-yard line features the NFL shield inside the silver outline of a football, with the word "DIVISIONAL" in all caps below. The customary 49ers logo with the team's initials marks midfield.

Temperatures are in the upper 40s and rising, with barely a trace of clouds visible from inside the stadium. The 49ers' cheerleaders are warming up down where the New Orleans Saints' players and coaches will stand during the game.

Not quite five hours til kickoff.

SAN FRANCISCO -- The best defenses can harass opposing quarterbacks without sending additional rushers.

The 49ers have done a pretty good job of it this season.

They have sent four or fewer rushers on 80.9 percent of opposing quarterbacks' dropbacks, the second-highest figure in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

I would not expect a significant shift in philosophy when the 49ers face Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in their divisional playoff game Saturday. We should note, however, that Brees has been even better against four or fewer rushers than when teams gamble by sending added pressure. There could be a temptation to send extra rushers if Brees fares well against the standard pressure San Francisco has preferred this season.

The first chart compares the 49ers' regular-season defensive stats to Brees' passing numbers when sending no more than four pass-rushers. Brees leads the NFL in completion percentage, yards, touchdowns and total QBR against four or fewer. He completed 32 of 39 passes for 425 yards and three touchdowns in these situations against Detroit in the wild-card round.

Not that Brees is any slouch against five or more rushers. He ranks second in completion percentage, fifth in yards, fourth in touchdowns and third in QBR against five-plus rushers. The number of opposing rushers hasn't seemed to faze him much. It's been a pick-your-poison situation for opposing defenses.

I'm expecting the Saints to favor heavier personnel groupings, with an emphasis on hitting big plays against the 49ers' base defense.

The ability to get pressure up the middle is always important. It's arguably more important against Brees because he's so comfortable and effective when stepping up in the pocket against outside pressure.

We're about six hours away from kickoff as this item is posting. Someone please hit fast-forward. Really looking forward to this matchup.

I'll be heading to Candlestick Park shortly.