ESPN NFL

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Buffalo Bills in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): It would be a dream for Bills fans to see their team back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. The last time we saw Buffalo make the postseason, the Bills were the victim of the “Music City Miracle” in 1999. It has been a long line of disappointments and underachieving since that historic play. (Many Bills fans still contend that was a forward pass, by the way.) This year’s team looks poised to break the streak. This is the best team, on paper, that Buffalo has had in a long time. The offense will be dangerous if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick improves his consistency in the passing game and Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and the running game stay consistent. Buffalo also made improvements to the defense, including drafting corner Stephon Gilmore in the first round and adding stud defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Chances are, everything won’t fall into place for Buffalo. But this is a sleeper team that does have a chance to make a jump and contend for the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): Despite all the additions, there is no guarantee the Bills and their coaching staff can bring it all together in one year. What if Fitzpatrick continues to play like the second half of 2011 and is not the long-term solution? What if the defense struggles to make the transition to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt? What if big injuries again decimate this team? A lot can go wrong for the Bills, especially in a division where the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots are expected to dominate. The Bills are trying to catch up and cannot afford to make many mistakes in the AFC East. They were 1-5 against division foes last year. Bills head coach Chan Gailey is only 10-22 in his first two years in Buffalo. He has more talent than he has ever had with the Bills. There are no excuses for Gailey this year. It’s still somewhat of a mystery whether Gailey can coach. But we will find out in 2012.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Bills and why.

Things are looking up for the Buffalo Bills. A team that finished 6-10 and in last place in the AFC East in 2011 had arguably the league's best offseason. The Bills acquired defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson in free agency, drafted first-round cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and gave contract extensions to in-house stars Fred Jackson and Steve Johnson.

But each move adds more pressure to third-year Bills coach Chan Gailey, who is 10-22 in his first two seasons in Buffalo.

Is Gailey a good NFL head coach? It's hard to say. Gailey was 18-14 in two seasons with the Dallas Cowboys before he was abruptly fired. Gailey still carries that sting after getting relieved without ever posting a losing season in Dallas. Gailey has struggled in Buffalo, but hasn't had nearly the same talent that he had with the Cowboys.

Talent is no longer a question this year in Buffalo. The Bills spent to the cap to nab top free agents, and many in-house players are coming into their own. Buffalo now has enough talent to make a playoff push. The question is, can Gailey and his staff put it all together?

This is a no-excuse year for Gailey. It's time to finally show what he can do in Buffalo with a bevy of talent at his disposal.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Dolphins and why.

Some starting NFL quarterbacks have one challenger breathing down their neck waiting to take their job. But very few incumbents have two quarterbacks gunning for them. That is the situation Matt Moore of the Miami Dolphins is in.

Moore is coming off a career year, going 6-3 in his last nine starts for Miami in 2011. He was the second most consistent quarterback in the AFC East to Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. However, that wasn't nearly enough for Moore to enter this season as Miami's unquestioned starter. He has to compete with veteran David Garrard in training camp.

Even if Moore fends off Garrard in the short term, he would still have to fight off Dolphins first-round pick Ryan Tannehill in the long term. Tannehill is clearly the quarterback of the future in Miami. How quickly Tannehill will take over depends on the rookie's learning curve and Moore's ability to win games.

It's a high-pressure situation for Moore, where it appears nothing will be good enough in Miami. Moore is entering the final year of his contract, and even if he puts up big numbers, Tannehill is expected to take his job for good in 2013.

Moore proved last season that he can handle pressure. He pulled the 0-7 Dolphins out of the gutter by infusing new energy. Miami played solid football in the second half of the season.

But this is a situation Moore won't survive with the Dolphins. The best Moore can hope for is to beat out Garrard and get enough playing time this year to show another team he can be a long-term starter.

The St. Louis Rams tapped into an SEC power when they selected defensive tackle Michael Brockers from LSU in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft.

They targeted quite a few players from less notable conferences throughout the remainder of the draft, selecting talent from the Southern, Gulf South, Big Sky, Mid-America, Mountain West and Lone Star conferences (along with the Big East, ACC and SEC, again).

Brian Quick from Appalachian State was one such player. The receiver, selected in the second round, wasn't widely mentioned as a player the Rams would consider early.

"Many will use the small-school component of Quick’s resume to suggest he will have a much larger learning curve to adjust to the NFL," NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell wrote. "Again, another myth tossed around as if it's gospel. Watch any college wide receiver, especially one that played in a spread, and you will see limited routes."

That would include Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon, the player linked most strongly to the Rams before the draft.

"In fact, studying both extensively on film, you can make the argument that Quick, who’s significantly bigger than Blackmon, is more naturally athletic," Cosell continued. "Quick is a very fluid and smooth athlete with excellent lateral quickness and deceptive vertical speed due to stride length. It’s not a stretch at all, when you analyze Quick’s physical and athletic attributes, to understand why the Rams selected him early."

Cosell's NFC West review touches on several early choices from the division. He explains why he thinks each selection made sense for the various teams, and why criticism is premature. He seemed to like the selections, although he did not project Seattle's Bruce Irvin or San Francisco's A.J. Jenkins as first-round selections in his mock draft, which listed Rams second-round choice Janoris Jenkins as a top-five talent.

Apologies, up front, for forgetting who passed along the link for Cosell's review. I'm counting on reading a reminder in the comments section. Thanks much.

DAVIE, Fla. -- The Miami Dolphins' quarterback of the future is doing everything he can this weekend to prove he can be the quarterback of the present.

Ryan Tannehill, Miami's No. 8 overall pick, looked in control during his first NFL practice. Tannehill showed off his strong arm and natural leadership in rookie mini-camp Friday. Tannehill says he already knows about "80-85 percent" of the playbook, which is very similar to the offense he ran in college.

Last week, Tannehill became the first quarterback taken in the opening round by the Dolphins since Dan Marino in 1983. Tannehill gives the city of Miami hope that this struggling franchise can eventually turn it around.

However, Tannehill is not expected to start right away. That distinction goes to veterans David Garrard or Matt Moore, who are expected to compete for the starting job in training camp while Tannehill gets up to speed.

It's early, but Tannehill was the best player on the field Friday amongst his rookie peers. He made some big-time throws, including a well-timed bomb to seventh-round pick Rishard Matthews. Tannehill also showed good mobility and command of the huddle. Several times he had to get less-familiar rookies lined up properly before running the play.

"I hope I'm looked at as a leader of the team, especially at this rookie mini-camp," Tannehill said. "A quarterback should be leaders of the team. I want to try to get guys going, and get guys playing together and make everyone around me better."

Things weren't perfect in Tannehill's first practice. He threw an interception over the middle in team drills after rookie sixth-round pick B.J. Cunningham dropped the ball. In fact, there were three drops on the day from rookie receivers. That had to feel familiar for Tannehill, who suffered from drops last season at Texas A&M.

It's not just the rookies. The receiver position as a whole will be a major question in Miami. Dolphins head coach and former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin wants to run an up-tempo West Coast offense that puts pressure on the defense.

"I thought overall the tempo was good and the effort was good," Philbin said of Friday's practice. "We told them in the meeting room our expectation wasn't that the execution would be perfect. I'm sure the film will verify that when we take a look at it."

The Dolphins have a long time to improve on the details between now and September. But overall the first day of the Tannehill era looked pretty good, all things considered. The rookie needs to continue having solid practices like Friday to convince Miami's coaches he's ready for the NFL.

"Guys are working hard and guys are making plays," Tannehill said. "I'm trying to help out as much as I can. Being in the offense for four years back at [Texas] A&M, it's not my first go-around."

Did the Buffalo Bills fix holes on offense?

The Buffalo Bills, who finished 6-10 and last in the AFC East, get a solid "A" for their offseason acquisitions in free agency and their selections in the draft. General manager Buddy Nix made very aggressive moves to get the team in position to make a run in 2012.

But did the Bills, my sleeper pick for 2012, do enough to plug their holes on offense? Buffalo invested a majority of its free-agent dollars on defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. The team also used its first-round pick on cornerback Stephon Gilmore. But the Bills didn't start to address the offense until the second round.

Buffalo's biggest offseason holes on offense were at left tackle and wide receiver. The Bills used their second-round pick on offensive tackle Cordy Glenn and their third-round pick on receiver T.J. Graham. Buffalo hopes both rookies can fill these important positions in Week 1.

Glenn is a solid prospect, but there are questions whether he can handle playing left tackle in the NFL. He split time at guard and tackle at Georgia. That helps in terms of versatility, but the Bills hope Glenn can fill the open left tackle spot full time.

Graham has a chance to compete for the No. 2 receiver position opposite Steve Johnson. Graham does not have prototypical NFL size (5-foot-11), but he does have very good speed to blow the top off the defense. A deep threat is something Buffalo's offense lacks. Graham will have a chance to compete with David Nelson and Donald Jones to be the No. 2 receiver. Nelson is more suited to the slot, and Jones has durability questions. Can Graham, a third-round pick, beat out a pair of veterans?

NFL teams selected 14 wide receivers and running backs in the first two rounds of the 2012 NFL draft, an average number since the league expanded to 32 teams for the 2002 season.

Five of the 14 landed in the NFC West, three more than the total for any other division.

The emphasis began with the Arizona Cardinals, who used the 13th overall choice for Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd.

The San Francisco 49ers went with a first-round receiver (A.J. Jenkins) and a second-round running back (LaMichael James). The St. Louis Rams used second-round choices for a receiver (Brian Quick) and a running back (Isaiah Pead).

The Seattle Seahawks, having used free agency (Sidney Rice) and trades (Marshawn Lynch, Leon Washington) to address those positions in recent seasons, were among the majority in this draft. They joined 21 other teams in targeting players at other positions in the first two rounds.

Floyd projects as a likely starter in Arizona. The others might need additional time, with James and Pead looking more like change-of-pace backs than the ones typically asked to start games and carry the ball on early downs.

The Cardinals, Rams and 49ers are among eight teams over the past three drafts to have used multiple picks in the first two rounds for receivers and runners. Detroit leads the way with four. Cleveland has three. The others have two.

I'll be interested in seeing how these new additions affect scoring. The Rams ranked last in that category for 2011. The Cardinals were 24th and the 49ers were 11th.

Since the Titans added seven players in the draft, I’ve said several times that I am a bit scared of their leanings toward potential over production, or the weight of athleticism in several of the selections.

But it’s important to note that of the seven players, that “complaint” centers on less than half the class.

Second round outside linebacker Zach Brown brings some questions about being more of an athlete than a football player. Fourth-round cornerback Coty Sensabaugh is an excellent athlete with great speed. Fifth-round tight end Taylor Thompson is a big-time athlete who didn’t play tight end in college.

(“You may say there are some more productive,” GM Ruston Webster said of Brown, “but few are more talented.”)

Perhaps those perceptions from draft analysts are off.

Perhaps three Titans assistants -- linebacker coach Frank Bush, secondary coach Brett Maxie and tight ends coach John Zernhelt -- will coach that trio up, and they will pan out in just the way the team imagines.

Perhaps we’ll rave about how their athleticism benefits the team.

It’s also worth noting that the rest of the class, led by receiver Kendall Wright, appears to be composed of guys who qualify, without question, as football players.

The protocol becomes the same for nearly every freshly minted NFL draft choice, from first-round quarterbacks to seventh-round punters.

Not long after their selections, their new employers will connect them to local NFL reporters via conference call.

A surprise awaited the Arizona Cardinals after the team made Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd the 13th overall choice in the 2012 draft.

Floyd's college coach, Brian Kelly, made an unsolicited call to the Cardinals, availing himself to media questions regarding his former player.

Kelly has vouched for other players, including Minnesota Vikings first-round pick Harrison Smith. A college head coach certainly has a recruiting interest in getting his name out there in association with prominent draft choices.

But in publicly testifying for Floyd, whose draft file includes three three alcohol-related incidents and a resulting team suspension, Kelly extended himself to an extent that wasn't necessary. It was a notable early marker for the Cardinals, who have never drafted a player with such significant baggage since Ken Whisenhunt arrived as head coach in 2007.

Floyd could not have scripted Kelly's testimonial more favorably:

• On Floyd in general: "Well, a kid who got his degree in three-and-a-half years from Notre Dame. Probably in my 23 years now as a head coach, the best practice player that I've ever had. He just has a passion and a love for the football."
• On Floyd as a teammate: "Whether he is getting the football or not, he is a guy who has never complained. He certainly always wants the ball in critical situations. He has never been a diva, if you will, in terms of not getting his catches. If we're successful and we're making plays, he's on the other end making blocks. That's why it was such a pleasure to coach the kid."
• On what changed in Floyd following a suspension: "To have an opportunity to come back and play at Notre Dame and get a degree and be successful in the NFL, he had to make some choices. And he made some great choices. Now, you've got a young man who had been through some adversity, has handled it, has been humbled because of it and the best is in front of him now."

Authorities cited Floyd for underage drinking in 2009 and 2010. A DUI conviction last year made for three alcohol-related incidents in three years, raising obvious questions about judgment and the potential for a more serious problem.

College programs can become enablers for troubled star athletes. Handing millions to those troubled athletes usually doesn't help.

Those are generalities. Floyd's situation stands on its own. Whether he has a problem or carries a heightened risk cannot be known for certain.

The Cardinals' decision to draft Floyd was an organizational one, with team owner Michael Bidwill, a former federal prosecutor, participating directly in the vetting process.

Coach Ken Whisenhunt said the team asked tough questions, thought Floyd provided honest answers and felt Floyd made a positive statement by returning to Notre Dame for his senior season amid quarterback uncertainty that could have hurt Floyd's status.

"I just basically told them it was a bad decision," Floyd told reporters following his selection. "I learned from it and I moved on. I know I can't be like every other college student, just doing what a college student does, because the spotlight is on me. They wanted to see if I had improvements since that time, and I have."

There is less uncertainty over the Cardinals' on-field plans for Floyd. They anticipate him becoming their flanker opposite split end Larry Fitzgerald, who had been the most recent first-round wideout chosen by Arizona. With Floyd projecting as a starter, Andre Roberts becomes a candidate for additional playing time from the slot, where Early Doucet was already a factor for the team.

Fitzgerald and Floyd present matchup problems with their size alone. Both are nearly 6-foot-3. Floyd weighed 220 pounds at the scouting combine. Fitzgerald weighed 225 upon entering the league in 2004. He has preferred playing at a lighter weight recently.

Size matters for receivers in the NFC West, a division featuring punishing safeties and Pro Bowl credentials in the secondary. Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Brandon Browner, Richard Sherman, Adrian Wilson, Patrick Peterson, Carlos Rogers, Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner, Cortland Finnegan and Quintin Mikell come to mind immediately.

"You could consider Mike to be still a raw receiver in that he can get better in all the technical elements in route running and things of that nature," Kelly said of Floyd. "He is certainly a guy that attacks the football and attacks defenders and blocking -- he is an outstanding blocker."

Any rookie open to input from veteran players stands to benefit from joining a team with strong leadership at the player's position. Fitzgerald sets an impeccable standard for the Cardinals' receivers and the team in general. From that standpoint, Floyd couldn't have found a better working environment.

Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.

Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.

Run, run, run.

And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.

The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.

St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).

NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.

Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.

The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).

San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).

The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.

And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.

When I saw him in mid-April, Jacoby Jones said he would happily mentor a Texans’ receiver draft pick. He also sounded like a guy who knew he could be on the way out.

And according to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, the Texans have released the receiver and return man after drafting two receivers: Ohio State’s DeVier Posey in the third round (68th overall) and Michigan State’s Keshawn Martin in the fourth round (121st overall).

It was time.

While Jones showed flashes, his ability to disappear and make costly mistakes isn’t worth waiting for the peaks in his game.

He wasn’t going to be worth the scheduled $3 million base salary he was due this season.

Undoubtedly he will get a chance somewhere, likely for a deal at a minimum base salary with incentives.

St. Louis Rams fans should know that Bob Mcginn, who recently finished first among 60 analysts projecting which players teams would draft among the top 100 picks, also forecast Trumaine Johnson as a first-rounder in his 2012 mock.

The Rams drafted Johnson in the third round, with the 65th overall choice. Johnson downplayed any concerns stemming from an arrest following a party he hosted.

"I just decided to throw a party after a win," Johnson told reporters during a conference call following his selection Friday. "It got loud. The cops came and shut it down. As we were shutting it down, one of my buddies got tased, so I went over there to try to see what was going on and I got tased. We both got booked and arrested."

Authorities accused Johnson of disorderly conduct, obstructing an officer and resisting arrest.

"I believe everybody throws parties and has fun in college," Johnson said. "I feel like I was just in the wrong place at the wrong time, so I shouldn’t have thrown the party in the first place just because we were in the season. I learned from it and it’s behind me now."

Johnson was among the subjects Bernie Miklasz and I discussed during our weekly conversation Tuesday on 101ESPN St. Louis. Johnson was the sixth of 34 cornerbacks drafted. The Rams previously used the 39th choice, a second-rounder, for cornerback Janoris Jenkins, a player carrying greater concerns off the field.

The Rams will lean on their veteran defensive coaching staff and newly signed cornerback Cortland Finnegan to assist Johnson and Jenkins.

Russell Wilson, the quarterback the Seattle Seahawks drafted in the third round Friday, probably lost millions of dollars when he stopped growing.

His height, measured by NFL scouting combine officials at 5-foot-10 and five-eighths of an inch, doesn't measure up to long-established league standards. That is why the Seahawks were able to draft the Wisconsin quarterback with only the 75th overall choice even though Wilson appears dynamic by other measures, including his arm, athleticism and leadership.

ESPN's Herm Edwards liked the selection and explains why in the video above.

History discounts the chances for a shorter quarterback. Wilson is not small, however. He had the fourth-largest hands of any quarterback at the combine: 10 1/4 inches, tied with defensive lineman Quinton Coples, guard Kevin Zeitler and 21 others for the 24th-biggest hands at the combine.

Brock Osweiler, the tallest combine quarterback at 6-foot-7, had smaller hands than Wilson. Ryan Tannehill, drafted eighth overall, had substantially smaller hands: 9 inches, tied with Yale's Patrick Witt for smallest at the combine.

Wilson, who finished second to Robert Griffin III among combine quarterbacks with a 4.55-second time in the 40-yard dash, did have the third-shortest arm length for any quarterback at the combine. Nick Foles, Osweiler and Andrew Luck ranked among the top five. The difference between Luck's arm length (32 5/8 inches) and that of Wilson (31) means what, exactly? I'm not sure.

Some of these measurement differentials might not mean much. Height would matter more to teams as they assess whether a quarterback can see the field well enough from inside the pocket. Edwards' feeling is that Wilson should be a good backup, with a chance to become more.

When the 2012 NFL draft had ended, the St. Louis Rams had parlayed the second overall choice into six choices: the 14th, 39th, 50th and 150th picks this year, plus first-round selections in 2013 and 2014.

That was the net result of trades made before and during the draft.

These were good trades for the Rams, in my view. More on that in a bit. First, some details as a companion to the earlier item on the San Francisco 49ers' wheeling and dealing.

The Rams began by sending the second overall choice to Washington for the sixth and 39th picks, plus first-rounders in 2013 and 2014. They traded the sixth pick to Dallas for the 14th and 45th picks. St. Louis traded the 45th pick to Chicago for the 50th and 150th selections.

The Rams could wind up selecting six players, including three in the first round, for the price of the second overall pick, which Washington used for Robert Griffin III, a player St. Louis would not have drafted anyway.

That seems like a worthwhile exchange for the Rams, who already had a quarterback and needed help at lots of positions. I'd set aside what the Redskins think of the deal. Their motives were irrelevant to the Rams. Price won't matter to them if Griffin III becomes a franchise quarterback.

While the Redskins drafted Griffin second overall, the Rams used the Redskins' second-round choice for cornerback Janoris Jenkins (39th overall). The picks acquired from the Cowboys and Bears allowed St. Louis to draft defensive tackle Michael Brockers (14th overall), running back Isaiah Pead (50th) and guard Rokevious Watkins (150th).

The Rams still have the two future first-rounders, of course.

Using the draft-value chart, the Rams sent to the Redskins a pick worth 2,600 points. They ultimately received picks totaling 2,041.4 points this year, plus whatever the 2013 and 2014 first-rounders are worth. The draft-value chart says those picks were worth the difference between 2,600 and 2,041.4, which is 558.6 points, or roughly what the 34th overall choice was worth this year.

Would the Rams have agreed to trade the 34th pick for two future first-rounders? Of course they would have made that trade.

Given that St. Louis has its quarterback, a new head coach, multiple needs and a long-range outlook, the team would naturally value those two first-rounders in the future. The Rams wound up drafting six of the first 96 players selected this year, including three in the second round, so short-term needs were met as well.

The chart shows what the Rams traded and what they received in return. I've underlined the picks St. Louis owned originally and retained ultimately. Those picks account for the net exchange.