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DAVIE, Fla. -- There is no bigger boom-or-bust prospect in the 2012 draft than former Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Is he the next prolific NFL quarterback, or simply a product of pre-draft hype that led to becoming a top-10 pick?

Opinions vary. But the Miami Dolphins believe they have the answers to the Tannehill question. Miami has more inside knowledge on Tannehill than any other team and drafted its quarterback of the future with the No. 8 overall pick Thursday night.

Tannehill will rejoin Dolphins offensive coordinator and former Aggies coach Mike Sherman, who says Tannehill is a star in the making. There are many critics who believe Tannehill is fool's gold, but the Dolphins are very confident they made the right choice.

"This was an all-in decision," Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland said firmly. "From the football side, our scouts, our coaches ... we all felt very, very good about it."

Ireland hit the nail on the head. The Dolphins are betting the foreseeable future of the franchise on Tannehill -- for better or for worse.

If Tannehill develops into an upper-echelon quarterback, the Dolphins finally have the biggest piece to change their misfortunes. If Tannehill is a bust, it will set Miami back another three or four years.

"We're excited and thrilled," Dolphins owner Stephen Ross said of their first-round pick. "I've always said you need to be strong at the quarterback position, and now that's one of the strengths of this team. So I couldn't be happier."

The pick doesn't come without pressure. It's been 29 years since the Dolphins drafted a quarterback in the first round: Dan Marino in 1983. Those are some big shoes to fill.

It's also no coincidence Miami hasn't had a legitimate, franchise quarterback since Marino retired in 2000. The list of mediocre starting quarterbacks since included Cleo Lemon, Joey Harrington, Trent Green, Jay Fiedler, A.J. Feeley, John Beck and most recently Chad Henne. Tannehill will try to avoid being the next name on this infamous list.

Tannehill had only 19 career starts in college. There is a learning curve with Tannehill that isn't as steep for other top quarterback prospects like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, who went No. 1 and No. 2 to the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Redskins, respectively.

The good news is Tannehill is not expected to play in 2012. Barring unexpected injuries to Miami veteran quarterbacks Matt Moore and David Garrard, Tannehill probably will hold a clipboard next season. This will provide Tannehill ample time to learn the NFL game.

Dolphins rookie head coach and former Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin kept Aaron Rodgers on the bench for several years before he became a starter and it worked out fine. But that wasn’t what Tannehill wanted to hear on draft day.

"I want to compete, that's just the competitor in me," Tannehill said in a conference call with the South Florida media. "Obviously with competition comes learning. It doesn't have to be a hostile competition. It's just competing."

Ireland said he’s going to leave Tannehill's playing time next season up to the coaching staff. But chances are, we won't know much about Tannehill until 2013. The boom-or-bust talk will have to wait for at least a year.

But Tannehill's ceiling is high if things go right in Miami. It also doesn't hurt that the quarterback competition in the AFC East is not very stout. It's pretty much Tom Brady, and then there's everyone else.

Tannehill has the physical ability to potentially rise above the struggling quarterback pile in the division that includes Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tim Tebow. If Tannehill becomes the second-best quarterback in the AFC East over the next two or three years, that's a huge advantage for the rebuilding Dolphins.

Remember this day, Dolphins fans. Tannehill is the draft pick that will either change Miami's misfortunes or extend the team's misery for several more years. The Tannehill mystery won't be solved overnight, but Miami feels it found the piece to eventually build this struggling franchise into a winner.

"I don't know if this energizes the fan base. What energizes the fan base is winning," Ross said. "I'm looking to field a winning team, because energizing a fan base only lasts a very short period of time.

"We're talking about winning in the long haul."

Michael Robinson's expected re-signing with the Seattle Seahawks would give the team a league-high four re-signings in the unrestricted free-agent market.

Red Bryant, Paul McQuistan and Heath Farwell previously re-signed.

Seattle and the other NFC West teams have added only two UFAs from other teams, however. I've put together UFA scorecards for each team in the division. Ages are in parenthesis. Here goes ...

Seattle Seahawks

UFA unsigned (age): defensive end Raheem Brock (33), defensive lineman Jimmy Wilkerson (31), safety Atari Bigby (30), quarterback Charlie Whitehurst (29), linebacker Leroy Hill (29), linebacker Matt McCoy (29), defensive lineman Anthony Hargrove (28), linebacker David Hawthorne (26), running back Justin Forsett (26), linebacker David Vobora (25)

UFA re-signed: Farwell (30), Robinson (29), McQuistan (28), Bryant (27)

UFA added: none

UFA lost: tight end John Carlson (27)

Franchise player: none

Comment: Forsett has provided value, but the Seahawks will want to add a power back as depth behind Marshawn Lynch, who re-signed before free agency. Mike Tolbert, a free agent from the San Diego Chargers, could be worth a look if the running back market remains soft. Tolbert weighs 243 pounds, has 21 total touchdowns over the past two seasons, and caught 54 passes in 2012. The price would have to be right after Seattle committed to Lynch.

San Francisco 49ers

UFA unsigned: fullback Moran Norris (33), tight end Justin Peelle (33), safety Madieu Williams (30), quarterback Alex Smith (27), receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (26), guard Chilo Rachal (26), safety Reggie Smith (25)

UFA re-signed: cornerback Carlos Rogers (30), linebacker Tavares Gooden (27)

UFA added: none

UFA lost: guard Adam Snyder (30), linebacker Blake Costanzo (27), receiver Josh Morgan (26)

Franchise player: safety Dashon Goldson (27)

Comment: Randy Moss and potential addition Rock Cartwright do not appear in the listings because they were not unrestricted free agents. Re-signing Alex Smith and finding additional receiver help appear to be the top priorities. The 49ers are showing little outward urgency on either front, however.

Arizona Cardinals

UFA unsigned: defensive lineman Vonnie Holliday (36), kicker Jay Feely (35), long-snapper Mike Leach (35), outside linebacker Clark Haggans (35), outside linebacker Joey Porter (34), offensive lineman Floyd Womack (33), punter Dave Zastudil (33), tackle D'Anthony Batiste (29), safety Sean Considine (29), guard Deuce Lutui (28), safety Hamza Abdullah (28), tackle Brandon Keith (27), receiver Early Doucet (26)

UFA re-signed: none.

UFA added: Snyder (30)

UFA lost: cornerback Richard Marshall (27)

Franchise player: defensive end Calais Campbell (25)

Comment: The Cardinals have been in a tough spot. They would have faced criticism had they declined to pursue Peyton Manning. They could now face criticism for sacrificing the first week of free agency while waiting for Manning. The reality is that Arizona probably wasn't going to be all that aggressive in the market this offseason, anyway. It did hurt losing Marshall to the Miami Dolphins after coordinator Ray Horton called him the Cardinals' defensive MVP.

St. Louis Rams

UFA unsigned: cornerback Al Harris (37), quarterback A.J. Feeley (34), offensive lineman Tony Wragge (32), linebacker Brady Poppinga (32), punter Donnie Jones (31), offensive lineman Adam Goldberg (31), guard Jacob Bell (31), receiver Brandon Lloyd (30), cornerback Rod Hood (30), running back Cadillac Williams (29), defensive tackle Gary Gibson (29), receiver Mark Clayton (29), tackle Mark LeVoir (29), tight end Stephen Spach (29), safety James Butler (29), tight end Billy Bajema (29), quarterback Kellen Clemens (28), running back Jerious Norwood (28), linebacker Bryan Kehl (27), linebacker Chris Chamberlain (26), cornerback Justin King (24)

UFA re-signed: none

UFA added: cornerback Cortland Finnegan (28)

UFA lost: none

Franchise player: none

Comment: The Rams are not looking to re-sign many of their own free agents. They want to turn over the roster, and that is happening in a big way. The team's failure to secure playmaking help for quarterback Sam Bradford stands out as the biggest theme to this point. Finnegan was a welcome addition, but he isn't going to score many touchdowns.

The chart below shows a general overview.

The St. Louis Rams have 20 players scheduled to become unrestricted free agents.

I'm not sure any of them qualify as players the Rams absolutely must bring back, particularly with a new coach and new schemes on both sides of the ball.

Receiver Brandon Lloyd would help fill a need, but at what price? Would he fit as well in a new offense after producing at disproportionate levels to this point when paired with former coordinator Josh McDaniels, now in New England?

Guard Jacob Bell played for new coach Jeff Fisher in Tennessee. He might have more value to the new staff than he had to the old one; McDaniels wanted more powerful guards, such as Harvey Dahl.

This item, like the previous one for Arizona, expands upon Brian McIntyre's lists. I've added columns for offensive and defensive snap counts from 2011, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information. The final column shows how much each player's previous contract averaged.

Update: Punter Donnie Jones is also an unrestricted free agent. His previous contracted averaged not quite $1.2 million.

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Receiver Danny Amendola, listed with the restricted free agents below, has not played since suffering an elbow injury in the 2011 season opener.

The San Francisco 49ers defeated the previously 5-0 Detroit Lions on the road after losing a fumble on their first play and never forcing a turnover.

They ground out a 13-8 victory on the road against a rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton.

They won what turned into a 36-32 postseason shootout against the NFL's hottest quarterback, Drew Brees.

They came back from 20 points down in the second half to beat Philadelphia on the road. They ran away from previously 3-1 Tampa Bay to win a blowout, 48-3.

With the 49ers sitting one victory away from the Super Bowl, I went through their games looking for threads tying together their victories and defeats this season.

Turnovers are generally key for any team; the 49ers led the league in differential. But as the game against Detroit demonstrated, the 49ers could beat a good team on the road without prevailing in that pivotal category. That was one of six games this season the 49ers won after trailing in fourth quarters.

A few things jumped out over the course of the season, counting playoffs:

• The 49ers gave up 20 sacks in their three defeats. That included nine at Baltimore, six against Dallas and five at Arizona. They allowed 28 sacks in their 14 victories.

2011 49ers Opponents: Yards/called pass

QB	Called Pass Avg.	49ers Result
Tony Romo	10.0	Lost
Michael Vick	8.6	Won
John Skelton	7.6	Split
Eli Manning	7.1	Won
Joe Flacco	7.0	Lost
B.Roethlisberger	6.5	Won
Kellen Clemens	6.2	Won
Colt McCoy	5.9	Won
Josh Freeman	5.2	Won
John Beck	5.1	Won
A.J. Feeley	4.8	Won
Andy Dalton	4.5	Won
Matt Stafford	4.4	Won
Tarvaris Jackson	4.0	Won 2





• Attacking the 49ers' pass defense is key. The 49ers' record was 0-2 when allowing more than 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 2-3 when allowing more than 6.6. They were 12-0 when allowing less than that. The 49ers were also 9-0 when collecting at least three sacks. They were 1-2 when opponents completed better than 65 percent of their pass attempts. The Giants' Eli Manning completed 65 percent. The 49ers batted down his final pass to help preserve their 27-20 victory.
• The chart ranks opposing quarterbacks by yards per play when dropping back to pass or scrambling. The quarterbacks ranking near the top generally defeated the 49ers or made them sweat out victories. Dallas connected on long pass plays late to beat San Francisco. Arizona had pass plays for 60, 53 and 46 yards during its victory over the 49ers. The chart shows only regular-season opponents, but the Saints' Drew Brees nearly beat the 49ers with 66- and 44-yard touchdown passes.
• Attacking the 49ers' run defense seems less critical. The 49ers were 12-0 when allowing more than 2.6 yards per rushing attempt. They were 2-3 when allowing less than that. Yes, you read that correctly. They even went 3-1 when allowing 25 or more rushing attempts. They were 11-1 when allowing more than 55 yards rushing, including 4-0 when they allowed more than 92.
• The 49ers were 3-2 when allowing more than 20 points, including 2-1 when they allowed 27 or more. They were 4-0 when allowing more than 20 first downs and 9-1 when allowing more than 16 of them. They were 10-1 when opponents ran at least 60 plays and 4-2 in the other games.
• Venue matters. Alex Smith has 15 touchdowns passes, three interceptions and 17 sacks in nine home games. He has five touchdown passes, two interceptions and 31 sacks in eight home games.
• Vernon Davis matters. Davis has 67 receptions for 884 yards and eight touchdowns in the 49ers' 14 victories. He has seven receptions for 88 yards and no touchdowns in three defeats. He averages 2.1 times as many receptions for 2.2 times as many yards in the 49ers' victories.

Those are a few variables I noticed. There are quite a few others, surely. Which ones matter most in your view?

NFC West quarterbacks took a beating in 2011 -- not just with the 203 sacks they absorbed, either.

We've heard the criticisms and levied them from time to time. Alex Smith is a merely game manager, John Skelton lacks accuracy, Kevin Kolb lacks pocket awareness, Tarvaris Jackson doesn't produce well enough in the clutch, etc.

The position was more asset than liability within the division Sunday. Smith, Skelton and the St. Louis Rams' Kellen Clemens made key plays and generally avoided critical errors. Smith and Clemens even scrambled for touchdowns. They stood high above the Seattle Seahawks' Tarvaris Jackson in Total QBR for Week 17.

Skelton's performance in victory over Seattle gave him the highest single-game QBR for a Cardinals quarterback (69.7) since Kurt Warner scored a 75.1 against the Rams in Week 16 of the 2009 season. That was enough to move Skelton past Jackson for second behind Smith in QBR for the 2011 season.

What does it all mean?

QBR measures how quarterbacks affect their teams' win probability on a play-by-play basis, taking into account contributions related to passing, rushing, sacks, penalties and fumbles. It would have us believe that NFC West quarterbacks played well occasionally, but their contributions over the full season fell short of the 50-point score representing average. I would generally agree.

The first chart below suggests Smith has picked up his play recently, posting scores in the 70s for three weeks running, and 67.7 or higher six times in the last eight games. Smith's NFL passer rating (90.7) ranked ninth in the NFL. His QBR ranked 22nd largely because the 49ers added relatively few expected points through passing, and because Smith ranked last in expected point lost to sacks.

Smith has taken five sacks over his last three games after taking 18 over the previous three. The 49ers have not committed a turnover in their last five games.

The key for Smith, in my view, will be transitioning away from turnover avoidance through sacks (avoiding interceptions at all costs) and moving toward completing passes against pressure. We have seen that on occasion recently.

I've shaded the chart to show single-game scores in the 60s or higher. For reference, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees scored in the 80s over the full 2011 season. Any full-season score in the mid-60s represents Pro Bowl-caliber production.

Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 17 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (73.3 QBR, 98.7 NFL rating): Smith completed 21 of 31 passes for 219 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, three sacks no fumbles. He gained five yards on four carries and had a rushing touchdown. The 49ers had only three wide receivers active, putting pressure on Smith to better utilize tight end Vernon Davis and receiver Michael Crabtree. Smith succeeded. He found Davis on deep passes gaining 44 and 34 yards. Crabtree did much of the work on a 28-yard scoring pass, but Smith's rushing score on third-and-goal from the 8 helped.
• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (69.7 QBR, 74.1 NFL rating): Skelton completed 22 of 40 passes for 271 yards with one touchdown, one interception, two sacks and no fumbles. He ran five times for 19 yards. Skelton completed third-down passes covering 26, 26, 22 and 18 yards. He also picked up a critical first down on a fourth-and-2 play in overtime. The touchdown drive Skelton led in the first quarter featured a 22-yard completion to Todd Heap on third-and-5.
• Kellen Clemens, St. Louis Rams (64.9 QBR, 67.4 NFL rating): Clemens completed 14 of 31 passes for 226 yards with one touchdown, one interception, three sacks and no fumbles. He ran twice for 18 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers had allowed only one rushing touchdown all season when Clemens sprinted into the end zone for an 18-yard touchdown in the first quarter. Clemens' 36-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Lloyd on third-and-11 gave the Rams a chance late in the game. He also completed a 21-yard pass on third-and-10 a bit later.
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks (26.7 QBR, 76.1 NFL rating): Jackson completed 21 of 35 passes for 222 yards with one touchdown, one interception, four sacks and one fumble, which the Seahawks recovered. He gained three yards on his only rush. Jackson twice missed an open Ben Obomanu for deep passes that likely would have produced touchdowns. He did connect with Ricardo Lockette for a 61-yard score, but the Seahawks converted just three times on 19 third-down chances. Jackson could not claim his first fourth-quarter comeback victory of the season despite rallying into a tie.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

Naming Ted Ginn Jr. and Kyle Williams inactive Sunday gives both San Francisco 49ers wide receivers extra time to heal for the playoffs.

The 49ers seemingly could have bought additional time for Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis, but they made him active for the first time since Willis suffered a hamstring injury Dec. 4. That presumably means the team feels confident Willis is at no additional risk for further injury.

With Ginn and Williams out, the 49ers will rely upon less proven players, not just on offense but in the return game.

Brett Swain starts opposite Michael Crabtree at receiver, where the 49ers have only three players active -- an unusually low number that includes undrafted rookie Joe Hastings, signed Saturday from the practice squad. Ginn and Williams were the top two returns specialists. With Delanie Walker also inactive, the 49ers are very thin on pass-catchers. With two fullbacks active, we can expect plenty of "22" personnel with two backs and two tight ends, it appears.

This means we could see safety Reggie Smith returning punts, with rookie running back Kendall Hunter serving as the primary kickoff returner. The 49ers did not make a formal announcement on a change at punt returner, but coach Jim Harbaugh indicated Friday that Smith could get the call.

With a victory at St. Louis or a New Orleans defeat against Carolina, the 49ers' injured players will gain another week to heal by virtue of a first-round playoff bye. There were no surprises among the Rams' inactives Sunday. Quarterbacks Sam Bradford and A.J. Feeley remain out, leaving Kellen Clemens as the starter.

NFC West offenses rank 21st (Seattle), 28th (Arizona), 31st (San Francisco) and 32nd (St. Louis) in third-down conversion rates this season.

I've broken out the conversion rates by play type and quarterback.

For example, the Seahawks' Tarvaris Jackson has 51 successful conversions on 124 pass attempts. His team has rushed for 13 first downs in 33 carries. He has taken 14 sacks. He has gained one first down on six scrambles. That adds up to 65 team conversions in 177 third-down plays when Jackson was quarterback, good for a 36.7 percent conversion rate that leads the NFC West.

The sack numbers jump out. Those are drive-killing plays by definition, but they do not show up in traditional third-down passing stats.

How teams fare on first and second down affects their chances on third down, of course.
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The St. Louis Rams' injury situation should, in theory, clear the way for the team to evaluate young depth against Cincinnati in Week 15.

That will happen at defensive end, where rookie Robert Quinn is getting the start over injured and inactive veteran James Hall. Quinn has shown flashes of ability as a situational player this season. Taking a longer look at him across additional situations will help.

But in too many other cases, the Rams are playing out the season without learning much about the future. Injuries are one reason. Not having enough young depth is another reason.

Sam Bradford is inactive against the Bengals, but replacement Kellen Clemens is a stopgap, not a developmental player. The team had hoped to keep Thaddeus Lewis on is practice squad coming out camp, but Lewis signed with Cleveland. And without a regular offseason, the team decided to stick with veteran A.J. Feeley as its backup even though Feeley, now injured, did not know the new offense.

Left tackle Rodger Saffold is also out. His replacement Sunday, Adam Goldberg, is 31 years old. The team knows he projects as a backup guard and tackle. He isn't going to develop into more than that.

The team has suffered too many injuries at cornerback to even consider developing young players at that position. With Justin King out Sunday, Rod Hood gets the start. Hood is 30 years old and still coming back from a career-threatening knee injury. He did not play in 2010.

Some of the players St. Louis wanted to develop this season -- tight end Michael Hoomanawanui, receiver Greg Salas and tackle Jason Smith -- are on injured reserve.

As a result, the Rams are largely just playing out the final three games.

SEATTLE -- The St. Louis Rams' inactive list could favor the Seattle Seahawks' run defense.

The Rams will be without veteran defensive tackle Fred Robbins, who was questionable on the injury report and did not practice during the week. Robbins' absence means more playing time for Darell Scott and Gary Gibson.

Also inactive for the Rams: quarterback A.J. Feeley, quarterback Tom Brandstater, running back Quinn Porter, fullback Brit Miller, linebacker Justin Cole and guard Kevin Hughes. Kellen Clemens will serve as the backup quarterback to Sam Bradford.

For Seattle, linebacker David Hawthorne is active. The Seahawks' inactive list features quarterback Josh Portis, safety Jeron Johnson, cornerback Kennard Cox, linebacker Adrian Moten, guard Mike Gibson, guard Paul Fanaika and defensive tackle Pep Levingston.

SEATTLE -- Sam Bradford has struggled during his second season for a variety of reasons.

Getting him back Monday night still improves the St. Louis Rams' chances against Seattle, and probably by a significant margin. Backup A.J. Feeley isn't available. The other backups, Tom Brandstater and Kellen Clemens, have spent little time with the team and lack Bradford's talent.

From a Rams standpoint, I'm most interested in seeing whether the coaching staff tries to protect Bradford by leaning more heavily on Steven Jackson and the running game. The Rams conceded the run during their 24-7 home defeat to Seattle in Week 11.

Conditions for passing the ball could improve with Mark LeVoir returning to take over at left tackle for the Rams. But crowd noise will still be a problem. And even if the line is better with LeVoir on the left side and Adam Goldberg moving back to the right, the Rams are still facing a formidable defensive front on the road with a pair of backup tackles.

The Arizona Cardinals won Sunday despite finishing with only 12 first downs and a 21 percent conversion rate on third down. They won despite losing the turnover battle.

Their 21-19 victory over the San Francisco 49ers marked the third time since 1940 a Cardinals team has won a game with two-plus interceptions and zero takeaways, according to Pro Football Reference. A combination of stifling defense, poor opposing offense and sensational play from receiver Larry Fitzgerald lifted Arizona.

Quarterback John Skelton finished the game with a career-high NFL passer rating of 106.5. But with Cardinals receivers gaining 180 yards after the catch, a season high by 84 yards, Skelton emerged from the game with a middling 44.1 out of 100 in Total QBR.

Huge gaps between NFL passer rating and QBR have been fairly common in the NFC West this season. QBR has sometimes downgraded Skelton's teammate, Kevin Kolb, and 49ers starter Alex Smith even when raw passing stats suggested they played well.

Those quarterbacks' season-long QBR scores are all below 50, which represents average play. Sacks have been a leading factor most of the season.

Cardinals receivers, running backs and tight ends have also gained significant yards after the catch. Quarterbacks share blame for sacks and credit for yards after the catch under the QBR formula, one reason Arizona's scores have lagged.

Fitzgerald made the pivotal plays for Arizona on offense. Among his contributions:

• Throwing the key block on Early Doucet's 60-yard scoring reception;
• Tracking down 49ers safety Dashon Goldson following an interception return in Cardinals territory, saving a potential touchdown;
• Heading off another potential Goldson interception with a leaping grab, followed by an improbable spin move and dash for the end zone for a 46-yard touchdown;
• Setting up another Cardinals touchdown by turning a short pass into a 53-yard gain.

The Cardinals, more than any NFC West team, have proven an ability to strike for big plays on a historic scale.

From 1990 through last season, no Cardinals quarterback threw two scoring passes of at least 40 yards in the same game, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Skelton did it Sunday. Kolb did it against Carolina in the regular-season opener. Those games featured the team's highest totals for yards after the catch. That helps explain the gaps between triple-digit passer ratings and roughly average QBR scores in those games.

The chart shows game-by-game and full-season QBR scores for NFC West quarterbacks heading into the St. Louis Rams' game against the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson now holds the top season-long QBR score for the division after Smith's season-low 9.4 QBR against Arizona dragged him down.

Note: Check out newly configured expanded QBR pages showing breakdowns across multiple categories, including by division. The 49ers' Smith owns the four highest scores among NFC West quarterbacks this season.


Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 14 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (44.1 QBR, 106.5 NFL rating): Skelton completed 19 of 28 passes for 282 yards with three touchdowns, two interceptions, one sack and one fumble (lost). He scrambled six times for 25 yards. Skelton played poorly enough to lose the game, then well enough to win it thanks to tremendous play from the Cardinals' defense and what should stand as one of Fitzgerald's finest games. Skelton showed great improvement from his previous start against the 49ers. He played better than expected against a strong defense, and he did it without taking many practice reps. This was a step forward for Skelton and his efforts to remain a viable No. 2 quarterback. His size and strength gave him and advantage over Kolb when it came to extending plays.
• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (9.4 QBR, 62.3 NFL rating): Smith completed 18 of 37 passes for 175 yards with no touchdowns, no interceptions, five sacks and one rush for minus-3 yards. He did not fumble. The 49ers suffered no turnovers, in part because the Cardinals failed to capitalize on a couple prime opportunities, including one on a pass Sam Acho tipped to himself. Smith did little to lift an offense whose troubles extend beyond the red zone. He faced third-and-12 or longer five times. Protection faltered, and Smith wasn't able to find quick outlets against pressure. Coach Jim Harbaugh said the game plan called for more passes than usual. The odds were against Smith and he could not overcome them.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 14.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

Kevin Kolb needed merely to be average for the Arizona Cardinals to realize a significant gain in the standings.

That was my theory heading into the 2011 NFL season.

The team was so bad at quarterback in finishing 5-11 last season, my thinking went, that even mediocre play might get them into the .500 range. Kolb has too frequently been less than mediocre this season, but that changed during the second half and overtime of the Cardinals' 19-13 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13.

Total QBR, which pegs average quarterback play at 50 on a 100-point scale, says Kolb has played near an average level four times this season, including when he posted a season-high 54.0 score Sunday. The Cardinals are 2-2 in those four games. They are 0-4 when Kolb has posted a QBR score significantly worse than average.

So, while an improved defense largely accounted for the Cardinals' victory Sunday, slightly better than average quarterback play was critical, too.

Kolb remains the only projected NFC West starter without a single-game QBR score of 55 or higher. He faces a tough test when San Francisco visits University of Phoenix Stadium in Week 14. Average might not be good enough then, but with three of their final four games at home, the Cardinals still have a chance to approach that .500 range -- right where we thought they might land, albeit by less conventional means.


Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 13 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks (76.9 QBR, 142.3 NFL rating): See full breakdown from Friday.
• Alex Smith, 49ers (68.7 QBR, 142.3 NFL rating): Smith completed 17 of 23 passes for 274 yards with two touchdowns, no interceptions, four sacks, no fumbles and no rushing attempts. He finished with the highest single-game NFL passer rating of his career. Smith also posted a high QBR score, but the blowout affected how much credit he got for plays deemed less important to winning. QBR does not necessarily tell us how well a quarterback executed his team's game plan. It does not necessarily tell us whether he threw pretty passes. It tells us how his passes, runs, penalties and sacks affected win probability on a per-play basis, weighted for game situations. Smith has largely done what the team has asked him to do. The team has not always asked him to be the difference in winning. For that reason, his QBR scores have sometimes lagged despite seemingly efficient play. The downfield throws Smith made Sunday helped him finish with his sixth QBR score of 65 or higher. That level, if sustained over the course of a season, would reflect Pro Bowl-caliber play. QBR says Smith has achieved that level more often than not recently.
• Kevin Kolb, Cardinals (54.0 QBR, 109.9 NFL rating): Kolb completed 16 of 25 passes for 247 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, five sacks and no fumbles. He ran three times for 20 yards, including once for a 17-yard gain to the Dallas 5-yard line on the Cardinals' first possession of the second half. Kolb passed for only 44 yards in the first half and took four of his sacks then. He played much better from that point forward. The QBR score was only slightly above average because Kolb took so many sacks. And because LaRod Stephens-Howling did most of the work on the winning 52-yard touchdown reception in overtime, Kolb did not get as much credit for that throw as NFL passer rating gave him.
• A.J. Feeley, Rams (11.4 QBR, 58.1 NFL rating): Feeley completed 12 of 22 passes for 156 yards with no touchdowns, one interception, four sacks, one fumble (lost) and no rushing attempts. Austin Pettis dropped an early third-down pass when a conversion was within reach. Danario Alexander failed to hold onto a deep pass at the goal line. The game wasn't very competitive, however, and that meant even strong plays from Feeley would not have registered as much with QBR once the score was lopsided.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 13.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

Note in the chart below that Dallas' Tony Romo added far more expected points through his passing than any quarterback listed. The negative totals he posted for rushing, sacks and penalties left his QBR score in the mid-50s, however.

SAN FRANCISCO -- Picture-perfect California weather only marginally improved the St. Louis Rams' view from the visitor's sideline at Candlestick Park.

The Rams watched backup quarterbacks A.J. Feeley and Tom Brandstater warm up, but there was no sign of starter Sam Bradford. The more time passed, the clearer it became Bradford would not play Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.

Bradford, slowed by an ankle injury, was among the players St. Louis declared inactive 90 minutes before the 4:15 p.m. ET kickoff. Feeley, 1-1 as a starter for the Rams this season, will start against San Francisco. The Rams also declared safety Darian Stewart, running back Cadillac Williams, linebacker Josh Hull, guard Kevin Hughes, tackle Mark LeVoir and defensive end C.J. Ah You inactive.

The 49ers' list featured quarterback Scott Tolzien, receiver Braylon Edwards, cornerback Shawntae Spencer, fullback Moran Norris, guard Daniel Kilgore, guard Mike Person and nose tackle Ian Williams.

Bradford missed practice during the week after aggravating the high-ankle sprain he suffered this season. There was no sense risking his physical well-being behind an offensive line playing without both starting tackles, in my view.

The preseason NFC West favorite St. Louis Rams take a 2-9 record into Candlestick Park on Sunday.

They will not take their starting offensive tackles or their leading receiver from 2010, and to hear coach Steve Spagnuolo tell it, injuries help explain why the Rams haven't kept pace with the 9-2 San Francisco 49ers this season.

Spagnuolo, speaking to reporters covering the 49ers, said injuries are no excuse. He also said continuity is crucial for teams installing new offenses, as the Rams and 49ers did this season. He said that was especially so coming out of a lockout-shortened offseason.

"We knew there'd be some rough edges, but you'd hope that you'd get to this certain point of the season and those reps underneath your belt would surface and you'd have some success," Spagnuolo said. "I think that’s happened for San Francisco."

The 49ers averaged 213 yards per game over the first three weeks of the season, never exceeding 226. They have averaged 344 yards over the subsequent eight games, despite a season-low 170 during their most recent game, a 16-6 defeat at Baltimore.

"You have a better chance of doing that when you can keep the same the same 11, 12, 13 guys on offense," Spagnuolo said. "We haven’t had that, and again, as a professional football team, professional coaches, professional players, you have to find a way to overcome that and it’s been tough for us to do that."

The Rams averaged 279 yards over their first four games, 349 over their next four, but only 246 over their past three. They are in decline.

St. Louis' offense suffered more significant injuries early in the season. The quadriceps injury Steven Jackson suffered in Week 1 sidelined him for one game and limited him for weeks. Losing 2010 receiving leader Danny Amendola at the same time compounded the problems.

The Rams' preferred personnel group -- Jackson, Brandon Gibson, Amendola, Mike Hoomanawanui and Lance Kendricks -- never played a snap together. The team acquired Brandon Lloyd by trade, explaining why the chart lists 12 projected starters for the Rams. But with Hoomanawanui suffering from injuries before ultimately landing on injured reserve, and with quarterback Sam Bradford missing time with an ankle injury, continuity suffered badly.

The 49ers' preferred offensive personnel group -- Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker -- played extensively together until Morgan's season-ending injury in Week 5. The remaining four continue to play extensively together. Their quarterback, Alex Smith, hasn't lost a snap to injury.

The injury Bradford suffered at Green Bay on the final offensive play in Week 6 came just as the offense had amassed a season-high 424 yards, only to lose 24-3. That injury was a tough setback, but the team won for the first time all season two weeks later -- with backup A.J. Feeley at quarterback against New Orleans.

Injuries are not the only reason for the disparity between St. Louis and San Francisco. They might not be the primary reason.

The 49ers' defense and special teams have taken pressure off their offense. Their offense has made great use of favorable field position. Their offensive line has struggled at times, but the 49ers have developed a power running game the Rams never matched even before injuries undercut their line (Jackson's production largely came on misdirection-type runs from shotgun formations). The Rams' defense has also fallen far short of expectations, buckling against the run in particular.

The 49ers have nearly doubled the Rams in scoring (262-140) despite averaging only 13.1 additional yards per game. Both teams are converting around 30 percent of the time on third down. They average right around 4.2 yards per rushing attempt. The Rams have a slightly lower interception rate.

Both teams have lost starting or primary wide receivers to season-ending injuries. The Rams counted on Amendola more than the 49ers counted on Morgan. But as valuable as Amendola was to the Rams -- he caught 85 passes last season, compared to 44 for Morgan -- the season did not hinge on his availability.

By my count, eight projected Rams starters on offense have missed a combined 25 starts, while two projected 49ers starters have missed a combined eight starts. I've used the word "projected" because those totals reflect only players projected as starters coming into the season. The breakdowns fall this way:

• Rams: Amendola 10, right tackle Jason Smith 5, tight end Hoomanawanui 3, Bradford 2, left tackle Rodger Saffold 2, Jackson 1, receiver Gibson 1, tight end Kendricks 1.
• 49ers: Morgan 6, Crabtree 2.

I did not consider fullbacks as starters because both teams' preferred groupings featured a halfback with two tight ends. The 49ers have played most of the season without veteran fullback Moran Norris, but Bruce Miller has grown into the role. The Rams have occasionally started fullback Brit Miller.

Both teams made performance-related changes to their offensive lines. The 49ers benched right guard Chilo Rachal after three games. The Rams benched center Jason Brown more recently.

Injuries have wiped out the Rams' offensive line in recent weeks, but their five projected starters were in the lineup into Week 7, with disappointing results. The 49ers were 5-1 at that point. The Rams were 0-6. Those trends have pretty much held.

Spagnuolo's comments covered the offense. The Rams' problems on defense are a subject for another conversation.

Three NFC West teams went into the most recent NFL offseason with unsettled quarterback situations.

Among the potential options: acquiring veteran Kyle Orton from the Denver Broncos. It never happened, but Orton's viability is worth revisiting now that the Broncos are releasing him.

A few considerations:

• Orton would be subject to waivers, meaning teams with poorer records would have priority in claiming him.
• Any team receiving Orton on a waiver claim would inherit his contract, which has $2.5 million in salary remaining for this season.
• Kansas City, Houston, Chicago, Indianapolis and Washington have immediate needs for starting quarterbacks.
• Orton will want to play for a team with a shot at the playoffs. He cannot control where he goes via a waiver claim, but any team acquiring him will have to gauge Orton's receptiveness to the situation.
• The Arizona Cardinals have committed to Kevin Kolb, but they have little invested in a backup. John Skelton is coming off a tough game. Orton would be affordable within the Cardinals' salary structure. He would upgrade depth, but could also threaten to undermine Kolb, a risk the team might not be willing to take.
• The St. Louis Rams are committed to Sam Bradford, but they probably would have parted with backup A.J. Feeley had the lockout not wiped out the offseason. Feeley fit with former Rams coordinator Pat Shurmur. Orton and current Rams coordinator Josh McDaniels were together in Denver, so Orton would know the offense.
• The Seattle Seahawks have pretty much given up on Charlie Whitehurst. It's unlikely Whitehurst will return in 2012. Why not accelerate the process by adding Orton to the mix for the remainder of the season? Seattle figures to draft a quarterback, with Tarvaris Jackson returning in some capacity. There might not be a spot for Orton, but Seattle's personnel department hasn't been afraid to churn the roster.
• The San Francisco 49ers are pleased with Alex Smith, obviously, but they could use veteran depth at the position. Orton would provide that depth. But with a 9-1 record, the 49ers would not succeed on a waiver claim unless Green Bay were the only other team submitting one.

I doubt Orton will land in the NFC West. Teams already had a chance to pursue him, and did not. Orton would add valuable depth for every team in the division, however.