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It's early in the offseason. But from the looks of it, the Miami Dolphins want to run an up-tempo offense under first-year head coach Joe Philbin.

The former offensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers is known for putting pressure on defenses. Green Bay was as good as anyone in dictating tempo. Last year the Packers were third in total offense (405.1 yards per game) and first in scoring (35 points per game).

But can Philbin's philosophy work in Miami?

The key to Philbin's first year will be quickly learning and knowing his personnel. New coaches often make the mistake of assuming their system and concepts are one size fits all.

Miami quarterbacks Matt Moore or David Garrard certainly isn't Aaron Rodgers. Dolphins receiver Brian Hartline is not Greg Jennings, and tight end Anthony Fasano is not comparable to Packers tight end Jermichael Finley.

The Dolphins have uncertainty at quarterback and the worst group of receivers in the division. Going up-tempo has its risks. Miami could face plenty of three-and-outs, which would put a lot of pressure on its defense.

Philbin and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman need to be careful about this while installing their new West Coast offense. Green Bay's strengths under Philbin were the quarterback and passing game. It's much easier to go up-tempo when you have a Pro Bowl and Super Bowl-winning quarterback throwing to stud receivers and tight ends.

Miami doesn't have that on its roster this year. The Dolphins' strength is their running game behind their offensive line and 1,000-yard rusher Reggie Bush. It would be wise for Miami's coaching staff to keep that in mind.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set, where they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense, and helps set Luck and the offense up with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

And should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

I won't try to break down the reasons why Green Bay Packers receiver Donald Driver won the prestigious "Mirror Ball" trophy Tuesday night as the champion of the reality show "Dancing with the Stars." No point in that.

What I will say is that watching the last few weeks of the show was a good reminder about the value of stepping out of your comfort zone. Driver is a great athlete and competitor, and perhaps he was already a good dancer before this show. But his emotional reaction to winning was an indication of how hard he needed to work to secure this accomplishment, and how much satisfaction he felt upon achieving it.

(Having Packers fans supporting you in the viewer voting doesn't hurt, either.)

Driver will have a few whirlwind days of publicity but could re-join the Packers for offseason workouts as early as next week. His agent, Jordan Woy, tweeted: "Congrats to Donald Driver winning DWTS!! Now it is time to get ready for another season with the Packers!"

Here are some other Packers reactions via Twitter:

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers: Speaking of teammates, am so proud of @Donald_Driver80 and his accomplishment tonight!!! Enjoy the whirlwind the next few days quickie!!!

Tight end Tom Crabtree: Donaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaald Driiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ?#titletown? ?#GoPackGo? ?#dwts? ?#football? ?#dance? ?#America

Linebacker A.J. Hawk: Congrats @Donald_Driver80, Champion, not even close!

Guard Josh Sitton: My little cousin @biigwilly won the sate baseball championship tonight an @Donald_Driver80 won dwts ! What a great night! Congrats guys!!!!!

Receiver Randall Cobb: Quickie has to write a book about this! Congrats to @Donald_Driver80!!!

ESPN analyst Andrew Brandt, a former Packers executive: Donald! Remember skinny 7th round pick coming in saying he would make a name in GB. Great story.

Have a wonderful evening.

SeattleAztec from San Diego asks whether Matt Flynn might be the "most developed" quarterback in the NFC West after learning from Mike McCarthy in Green Bay.

"Alex Smith and Sam Bradford seem to be the least developed with having multiple offensive coordinators and no great vets to learn behind," he writes. "Kevin Kolb had a good upbringing in Philadelphia and Arizona has shown an ability to handle QBs, but Flynn had the benefit of learning in the Green Bay system. Learning behind Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy will give him an advantage, assuming he wins the starting job. Thoughts?"

Mike Sando: Flynn's background with McCarthy and the Packers appealed to the Seahawks. McCarthy, with nothing more than a compensatory draft choice to gain from advocating for Flynn in free agency, gave glowing reviews in conversations with the Seahawks. Those conversations appear more credible based on Seahawks general manager John Schneider's long association and friendship with McCarthy.

"We really respect the job that they’ve done with their offense and their quarterbacking and Matt is a beneficiary of that, so therefore we are also," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said after signing Flynn in March. "His process to learn as Aaron Rodgers has learned has really been helpful to him. There are a lot of similarities in their style of movement and decision-making, play and conscience that I think helps us."

That doesn't necessarily mean Flynn will be the "most developed" quarterback in the division. A few thoughts on what the other NFC West quarterbacks have going for them:

• Smith (49ers): Jim Harbaugh should know the position better than any head coach in the division. Smith has more experience than any quarterback in the division. Harbaugh and Smith meshed well last season. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman and quarterbacks coach Geep Chryst round out what looks like a solid support group. Smith has finally had time this offseason to work on his mechanics. He's getting a second season in the offense. Spending one season with McCarthy and a second with Norv Turner probably counts for something, too, despite the passage of time.
• Kolb (Cardinals): Kolb did not practice with the Cardinals until 38 days before the 2011 opener. That made it tough for Kolb to learn a new system and settle into the role. Injuries derailed Kolb once he finally did get experience in the system. The Cardinals fired quarterbacks coach Chris Miller and promoted receivers coach John McNulty to the position. Arizona valued McNulty enough to block Tampa Bay from pursuing him as its offensive coordinator. The team's new receivers coach, Frank Reich, was an NFL quarterback for 14 seasons. What does it all mean? It's a little early to tell.
• Bradford (Rams): New coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was with Mark Sanchez previously. One line of thinking says Schottenheimer led Sanchez as far as Sanchez could go, then took the fall when Sanchez failed to carry more of the offensive load. Another line of thinking says Schottenheimer couldn't get Sanchez past a certain point. Bradford is on his third coordinator in as many seasons. The Rams went through 2011 without a quarterbacks coach. The new quarterbacks coach, Frank Cignetti, coached the 49ers' Smith under coordinator Jim Hostler in 2007. That was one of the worst offensive seasons in 49ers history. Hostler took the blame. It's tough to fault Cignetti in that context, but also tough to offer a strong endorsement without seeing results.

Circling back to the original question, we could make a case that Flynn should be the most developed quarterback in the division.

Other factors go into success, of course. Bradford and Smith were No. 1 overall choices, indicating that teams thought they were more talented than Flynn, a seventh-rounder who drew moderate interest in free agency this offseason. And if the Seahawks were convinced Flynn were the answer, they would have had less reason to use a third-round choice for a quarterback after signing Flynn.

I do think Flynn's background with the Packers was crucial for the Seahawks. Schneider's first-hand knowledge of Green Bay's quarterback training techniques was a factor.

Our friends at Football Outsiders have reached the NFC North juncture of their annual post-draft needs series for ESPN.com. You'll need an Insider subscription to read the entire file but I can provide you a snippet of the needs that Outsiders' statistical analysis points to for each of our teams.

Chicago Bears
Need: Offensive line
Excerpt: Left tackle J'Marcus Webb "led the league with 15 offensive penalties in 2011."
Seifert comment: We've been through this before. Outsiders suggests the Bears seek a swing tackle via free agency, but indications are that the team envisions 2008 first-round pick Chris Williams in that role.

Detroit Lions
Need: Cornerback
Excerpt: Free-agent acquisition Jacob Lacey "ranked 81st in success rate against the pass last year and 88th in 2010."
Seifert comment: The Lions prioritize the havoc they can create with a dynamic defensive line over whatever shortcomings they might have in the secondary. Lacey will compete with Aaron Berry and perhaps rookie Dwight Bentley for a starting job.

Green Bay Packers
Need: Backup quarterback
Excerpt: "If any injury causes [Aaron] Rodgers to miss action, the Packers are looking at trotting out either super raw seventh-round rookie B.J. Coleman or undrafted and utterly untested third-year man Graham Harrell."
Seifert comment: In 2008, the Packers set a precedent of using an untested backup in Matt Flynn. There isn't league-wide certainty that Harrell is prepared to be a No. 2 in 2012, but the Packers are more likely to use him in that role than sign a veteran free agent.

Minnesota Vikings
Need: Middle linebacker
Excerpt: "There's no evidence suggesting that [Jasper] Brinkley can handle the full slate of middle linebacker duties."
Seifert comment: All indications are that Brinkley will get the first chance to replace E.J. Henderson. There isn't a notable alternative on the roster, but it's a position where a temporary starter could be signed during training camp. But the Vikings are committed to getting younger and Brinkley is 26.

How to value Alex Smith's performance stood among the most debated subjects on the NFC West blog last season.

Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.

The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.

Total QBR, the metric ESPN's Analytics Team developed to more fully assess how quarterbacks contributed to winning, supported the 49ers' valuation.

Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.

The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.

Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.

The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.

Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.

These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.

"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."

The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.

"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.

"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."

I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.

For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.

My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.

This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.

There have been so many subplots to the New Orleans Saints’ bounty program that some significant ones have gotten lost in the shuffle.

Thanks to Jeff Schultz for bringing attention to one of them. In this column, Schultz writes about the role and stance the NFL Players Association has taken and suggests the union change its name to “the Union of People We Feel Like Representing."

He’s got an excellent point. In its statement after the suspensions of Jonathan Vilma, Will Smith, Scott Fujita and Anthony Hargrove were announced, the union said it had “not received any detailed or specific evidence from the league of these specific players’ involvement in an alleged pay-to-injure program."

That’s a pretty standard line from the NFLPA. Think back to last year’s lockout. How many times did we hear the union say that the NFL would not share information how much each team was making, even though the league repeatedly said the union had been supplied with as much information as possible.

It’s a similar story this time. Former New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has admitted the bounty program took place and there is that damning audiotape of Williams talking to his players the night before last season’s playoff game at San Francisco. The NFL also has said that multiple sources said Vilma offered $10,000 of his own money for bounties on Brett Favre and Kurt Warner. The NFL said Smith assisted Williams in establishing and funding the bounty program. The league also said Hargrove submitted a “signed declaration to the league that established not only the existence of the program at the Saints, but also that he knew about and participated in it’’. The league also said Fujita pledged a significant amount of money to the bounty program.

What more evidence does the union want?

Obviously, the union is prepared to stand by Vilma, Smith, Hargrove and Fujita, who just happens to be a member of the NFLPA’s executive committee, as they make their expected appeals. Any union should stand by its members because they pay dues that should bring them support from their union.

But this is where things head to an area that looks to be painted in multiple shades of gray. The NFLPA will try to protect the four suspended members.

That screams out one huge question -- what about the union’s hundreds of other members? They pay dues too and, presumably, that buys them protection as well. Shouldn’t the union be standing by Favre and Warner, who paid dues for years? And shouldn’t the union be protecting Carolina quarterback Cam Newton and Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who the league said were also targets of the bounty program?

By standing so firmly with the suspended players, the union seems to be giving the appearance it doesn’t care about its other members or their safety and welfare. I’m sure the union would dispute that and say it cares about all its members and there’s probably truth in that.

But perception is everything. And the way the union has handled this thing so far sure make it look like it has a serious conflict of interest on its hands.

Maybe the union should step aside on this one. I don't see how you fully can stand up for the rights of your players when one group is trying to hurt another group. The union can pick a side, if it wants. But maybe choosing to not pick a side and staying out of this one is the only way the union can avoid the perception of a conflict of interest.

In March, two Minnesota Vikings players -- punter Chris Kluwe and center John Sullivan -- called for the NFL to suspend New Orleans Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma for his role in the Saints' bounty program prior to the 2009 NFC Championship Game. At the time, we noted a developing and awkward dynamic: NFL Players Association (NFLPA) members advocating against their union brethren.

Sullivan, in fact, went so far as to say: "As a union member, I'll be very upset if we come to the defense of these acts. They're indefensible. You can't defend them. It's despicable, has no place in the sport."

Vilma, whom the NFL said offered a $10,000 reward for any player who knocked then-Vikings quarterback Brett Favre out of the 2009 NFC Championship Game, received a one-year suspension. We haven't yet heard from Sullivan, but Kluwe said via Twitter that the suspension is "just."

Kluwe also provided an extended and nuanced analysis of the what he called a "tough spot" for the NFLPA, which has already pledged to "vigorously protect" Vilma and the three other suspended players and "pursue all options on their behalf."

Here's what Kluwe tweeted:

"Vilma and the others deserve the right to an appeal; while I agree with the commissioner's decision others may not, and that's fine, this is America. However, the union has to simultaneously balance defending four guys against the judgment, of [Roger] Goodell (which needs oversight, make no mistake) while at the same time recognizing those four guys were attempting to harm other union members, who also deserve that same protection. The union cannot be just about appeals when someone does something wrong. It also has to be a shield for those men who are a part of it that you never hear about, but pay the same dues and play the same game. I can only hope that the leadership of the NFLPA realizes this, and acts in *all* of its members' interests, however that takes place."

I find this a fascinating, if subtle, subplot of this story. The NFLPA argues the NFL hasn't provided evidence of its accusations, but obviously there are at least some players -- and union members -- who are convinced otherwise. By definition, players engaging in a bounty system are trying to harm other players. Why isn't the union jumping to the defense of the targeted players, which according to the league includes Favre, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner and Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton?

I realize this is a tough day in the NFL for a lot of reasons. I just think this issue merits some discussion along with everything else. The story has thus far centered around the aggressors. What about the victims?

Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.

Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.

Run, run, run.

And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.

The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.

St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).

NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.

Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.

The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).

San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).

The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.

And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.

We noted this winter that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers floated the idea of hosting "Saturday Night Live" sometime this year. His dry sense of humor and burgeoning media empire made him a natural candidate for the job.

So we should probably close the circle and pass along his apparent decision to pass on the opportunity, at least during this offseason. Here's what he told a San Diego radio station, via NFL.com:

"I have been invited. I want to do it. I want to do it right. The commitment that it takes in my opinion to do it the right way was just too much for me this offseason, so I will be doing that in the future and look forward to the opportunity."

For now, we'll reserve our national television viewing for Packers receiver Donald Driver "Dancing With the Stars." (Unless we don't.)

When the MVP talks, people listen.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was the first prominent member of the NFL community to speak out in February about the diminished quality of the Pro Bowl. Speaking on his ESPN 540 radio show, Rodgers said some players on the NFC team "embarrassed themselves" and either "didn't want to play or when they were in there didn't put any effort into it."

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell agreed, and after several months of discussion it appears the league is having trouble finding a way to improve the game. So as ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported Thursday morning, the Pro Bowl is likely to be suspended and might never be played again.

We spent some time in February coming up with suggestions. My favorite was some kind of contemporary skills competition/reality show between the NFL's best players. I would tune in to watch Rodgers and, say, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady compete to see who could eat more snails in 10 minutes, "Fear Factor" style. Wouldn't you?

But none of us really had any good ideas on improving the game itself. In an era of unprecedented safety concerns, it's unrealistic to expect players to play and hit each other harder, exposing themselves to injury, in a meaningless exhibition. My guess is Goodell is in the same spot. The Pro Bowl had been building to this point for years, and there's no turning back on its intensity level now.

This week as I spoke with some NFL personnel evaluators, I asked them about Andrew Luck.

I was struck by the contrasting opinions of two of them.

Neither has an argument against the Colts’ selection of Luck tonight with the No. 1 pick in the draft. But they feel differently about the reviews of Luck that have rolled in building up to tonight.

Here they are:

Critique One

"Indy gets a chance to take the best quarterback in Ryan Grigson’s first draft. What a gift. You don’t have to go through all the lumps with a guy who needs time. He’s the best player in a long time.

"Luck and (Robert Griffin III) are not even in the same league. Luck is so much better. Only the roster will hold him back. He’s a good enough player they can get him through it. I think he will have some success this year, some games where he looks pretty good. He’ll get hammered in some games.

"With a few pieces they can be a god team again, it won’t take too long. They get two of the top 34 here, next year they probably pick high again. The second year they need a home run in the first round and a real solid second. Those two drafts are the building blocks for six or seven years."

Critique Two

"I’m not buying he’s the best prospect since John Elway. I watched him a lot, not a ton, but a lot.

"Stanford was in jumbo half the time and half his passes were little flips to the fullback or somebody wide open. Play-action, boot, real retro, old-school stuff. Shootouts? He hasn’t really won, you can blame the field goal kicker or whatever.

"They ran 40 times -- power 30 times. They were in jumbo and they out-physicaled smaller teams. It was not so much, 'You’re the next Aaron Rodgers, go light them up.'

"I would not have a concern drafting him at No. 1, I think he’ll be good. He’s worthy. But the Elway and Peyton Manning comparisons? I don’t know if that buildup is too high for him. He won’t have the run game from Stanford. He’s smart, athletic and strong, but he’s got an average arm.

"In the NFL now you have to rip it. And I don’t see him attacking the field like some guys outside with comebacks and stops. He’s a touch passer, drop it down the chimney. At Stanford, he threw to a lot of guys who were wide open. Wide open."

Never has the NFC North's transition been more visible than on the final day of the 2011 regular season. On a snowy day at Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions combined for 103 passing attempts and 1,000 passing yards.

By the time the Packers secured a 45-41 victory, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford had exceeded 5,000 yards passing for the season and Packers backup Matt Flynn had convinced the league he was a starting-caliber quarterback. Where once we could have expected the teams to grind out a classic Black and Blue game, they instead combined for a total of 37 carries. No running back made it to the modest total of 50 yards.

We've spent some time this offseason noting what we could politely call a tilt toward the passing game in both Detroit and Green Bay. We've discussed the Chicago Bears' seeming ambivalence about signing tailback Matt Forte to a long-term extension, and we've pointed out the Minnesota Vikings' uncertainty as tailback Adrian Peterson rehabilitates his shredded knee.

If you looked at this division through a traditional lens, you could consider running back a significant draft need for at least half of the division, if not all of it. But the NFC North's frenzied quarterback acquisitions over the past few years have brought us to a precipice. Are we ready to jump off, once and for all, into the world of Air and Space? Or will our teams step away from that ledge and rebalance their personnel, if not their scheme, to double back on the running game?

As the NFL continues its push toward passing supremacy, it's hard to imagine any NFC North team making anything other than subtle changes. Why take the ball out of the hands Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler or Stafford? And why not give Christian Ponder every chance to take the next step in his development?

This offseason, we've heard the Vikings speak often about seeking more playmakers for Ponder. We've watched the Bears sign Michael Bush as insurance against Forte's possible absence, but otherwise the Bears have worked to fortify their passing game with the acquisition of receiver Brandon Marshall and private meetings with many of the draft's top receivers, from Michael Floyd to Stephen Hill to Alshon Jeffery.

The Lions are the case study here, followed closely by the Packers. Injuries to Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, Kevin Smith and the brain tumor of Jerome Harrison left them little choice but to rely on Stafford's arm last season. They finished 2011 with the second-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL, managed 71 rushing first downs (No. 29 in the league), according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Stafford told reporters this week that "everybody on our team would like to be a little more balanced than we were last year." It's reasonable to think they will be if Best and/or Leshoure are available full-time. But a serious commitment to improve would almost certainly require a draft investment. Best (concussion) has not been cleared for football work, Leshoure (Achilles) is coming back from a serious injury for a running back, and Smith has had difficulty staying healthy throughout his career.

How much do the Lions value that balance? We should find out over draft weekend. Again, most of us would look at their roster and toss question marks all over their backfield. But in 2012, how important is it to have an established and traditional No. 1 running back?

"We want to score as many points as we can," coach Jim Schwartz said at the NFL scouting combine. "Whether you do it running or passing, it doesn't matter. I think you want to try to get the ball in playmakers' hands."

In the end, the Lions might be best-served by pursuing a more modest goal: Being in position to capitalize against imbalanced defenses. Dictating a game on the ground might well be an NFC North artifact.

"If teams take the approach of playing the pass first," Schwartz said, "we should be in the position of having running backs who can make them pay for that."

Yes, there is a more than reasonable argument to be made that you don't need an elite running back when you have elite quarterbacks and receivers. A competent running back who doesn't miss the obvious yards might well suffice.

I don't know if the Lions, or the Packers for that matter, will invest a high draft pick in a running back. None of us do. But is it necessary? Probably not, at least not in our new Air and Space division. Soon we'll know how far off the cliff we've fallen.

During his visit Tuesday to ESPN.com headquarters, Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson sat down for a SportsNation chat. One of the questions: Was he worried about the so-called "Madden Curse" that befalls those who appear on the cover of Madden football?

Johnson's response: "No, I don't worry about it. All things come to an end."

We're one step away from finding out if that's true.

Johnson has eliminated Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the semifinals of the tournament to determine the "Madden 13" cover. He'll face Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton for the honor.

In the chat, Johnson revealed that he plays more "FIFA" than "Madden," preferring the allure of Man City over more football in his free time. But will "Megatron" soon become synonymous with "Madden"? And Lions fans, will you vote for or against having your team represented on the cover? By all means, fill the comment section below. There's plenty of elbow room in there these days.

The winner will be revealed April 25 on SportsNation at 5 p.m. ET.

One man's opinion on the top five Monday night games for 2012:

1. Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, Week 16. Call this one the Karma Bowl. The Falcons took offense when Ndamukong Suh allegedly celebrated Matt Ryan's ankle injury during an October game between the teams last season. Suh called the injury "karma" for the Falcons' allegedly dirty tactics. Good teams and bad blood should make for good theater.

2. Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons, Week 2. Peyton Manning's first post-Indy appearance on "Monday Night Football" takes him to Atlanta for only the third time in his career. The Falcons are a footnote in this matchup. Manning plays only one indoor game during the 2012 regular season. This is it.

3. Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 12. Neither team had a winning record last season, but who cares? This game presents a chance to see Cam Newton and Michael Vick on the same night in the same stadium for the first time -- assuming they're both healthy enough to play after running around, into and through defenses for two-plus months.

4. Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers, Week 11. Patrick Willis vs. Matt Forte. Brian Urlacher vs. Frank Gore. Expect a physical game and a big test for Jay Cutler on the road. The 49ers have arguably the NFL's best defense and they'll be eager to show it in prime time.

5. Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 3. Two NFC West teams on the list? What is this, the NFC West blog? Yes, but this one's legit. Few venues can approach Seattle for atmosphere, especially in prime time. And this game marks Green Bay's lone appearance on Monday night. The Matt Flynn storyline adds interest.