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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Minnesota Vikings in 2012.

Dream scenario (9-7): Quarterback Christian Ponder makes a big leap in his second season, spurred in part by confidence in his new offensive line. Ponder makes good use of his two pass-catching tight ends, Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson, and either Jerome Simpson or Greg Childs provides a legitimate downfield threat. Tailback Adrian Peterson (knee) is back to full strength early in the season, if not in Week 1. The Vikings get a big return on overhauling the middle of their defense and aren't hindered by starting one rookie safety (Harrison Smith) and perhaps two (with Robert Blanton). In a tough division, they're thrilled to finish with a winning record.

Nightmare scenario (3-13): The Vikings show no improvement from 2011, giving them a three-year record of 12-36. Ponder's inconsistency raises questions about his future with the franchise. Peterson returns but isn't a dominant runner any longer. The defense implodes because of its inexperience and lack of playmakers in the back end. It's clear the franchise has another year or more to go before matching the rest of the division.

The Eagles signed running back LeSean McCoy to a five-year, $45 million extension Thursday evening, $20.76 million of which is guaranteed. This continues to provide a framework of the market value for running backs, but this deal might not accelerate the signing of Ravens running back Ray Rice.

The problem is the disparity between the tiers for running backs. McCoy's deal is in line with the second tier like the Texans' Arian Foster (five years, $43.5 million, with $20.75 million guaranteed). But Rice could be shooting for the top tier that includes the Vikings' Adrian Peterson (seven years with $36 million guaranteed) and the Titans' Chris Johnson (six years with $30 million guaranteed).

What will likely get a deal done is finding a middle ground. Rice doesn't belong at the top of the pay scale because he hasn't averaged 13 rushing touchdowns over five seasons like Peterson and he doesn't have a 2,000-yard rushing season on his resume like Johnson.

But, based on the statistics, Rice deserves to get paid more than Foster and McCoy. In his three seasons as the featured back, Rice has produced 5,885 total yards, an average of 1,962 yards per season. That tops the three-year total yards by Foster (4,411) and McCoy (4,241).

That's why a five-year extension with $25 million guaranteed would be a fair deal for Rice.

Rice is currently scheduled to make $7.7 million this season as the Ravens' franchise player. If the sides can't reach a new deal by July 16, Rice will have to play this season under the tag.

He has yet to sign his tender and could skip training camp. Keeping in shape while working out on his own is not a concern for Rice.

"Training is something that I never worried about," Rice told the Carroll County (Md.) Times last weekend. "It's something that you got to want. I actually have the burning to desire to come back, not only for myself, but to come back ready to play. My training has always been part of my routine."

Rice has been training with former Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook.

"Nobody ever had to beat me in the head to get up and work out," Rice said. "Anybody who knows about my workout regimen, I've probably been through two before noon. Training has never been my issues but obviously, the team camaraderie, the lockout and all that stuff, that's the stuff that you kind of miss with the guys. But as far as being ready, I know I'll be ready."

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Minnesota Vikings and why.

As the Vikings' interim coach in 2010, Leslie Frazier won three games and lost three games. Promoted to the permanent job shortly thereafter, Frazier was part of a 3-13 disaster in 2011 that prompted an organizational shift in power to general manager Rick Spielman and a significant overhaul of the roster.

So in sum, Frazier has a 6-16 record, is entering the second year of a three-year contract and will be asked to compete with a roster that is at least a year away from legitimate contention. Playing in arguably the NFL's toughest division, he'll have a second-year quarterback in Christian Ponder, three new starters on the offensive line, a rookie place-kicker and first-time starters down the middle of his defense -- at nose tackle, middle linebacker and possibly both safety positions.

Oh, and Frazier's best player -- tailback Adrian Peterson -- is recovering from a serious knee injury suffered last December. Peterson insists he will be ready for the opening of the season, but the Vikings' medical staff has refused to confirm that timetable.

Frazier is a good person and a good coach, but that's a challenging series of obstacles for someone hoping to make it to a third season. At 6-16, the honeymoon period of his tenure is over. If nothing else, he'll be undermanned as he attempts to steer the team toward more victories.

Mort sees big things for the Chiefs this year, Cris Carter elaborates on his bounty comments, and the 32 Crew has some advice for Adrian Peterson when he returns from knee surgery.

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- I joined a number of reporters Wednesday afternoon at the Minnesota Vikings' practice facility, where tailback Adrian Petersonwas scheduled to discuss the rehabilitation of his surgically-repaired left knee. On cue, Peterson popped his head through the door. With athletic trainer Eric Sugarman at his side, Peterson motioned for us to join him at the far end of the practice field.

For the next 15 minutes, Peterson demonstrated the extent of his progress by running two sets of sideline-to-sideline sprints. He performed a series of box jumps, moved laterally to catch a rolling soccer ball and ran tight circles around a wide hula hoop.

The scene was impressive for a player 19 weeks removed from tearing two ligaments in his knee. As he caught his breath afterwards, Peterson reiterated his intent to be ready for the Vikings' Week 1 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, by far the early side of the typical range for injuries as significant as his.

"People can say what they want to say," he said. "I've got my goals."

I felt conflicted watching Peterson work out and listening to his optimism. Part of me admired his intense desire to return ahead of schedule. The other part kept flashing back to the end of "Fargo."

And for what?

If it wasn't clear before, it should be obvious now. The Vikings have launched a full-scale roster rebuild that should better position them for the long-term but will almost certainly sacrifice the short-term to do it. The latest evidence was this week's decision to jettison still-reliable place-kicker Ryan Longwell for rookie Blair Walsh, perhaps the most extreme example of the team's systematic effort to make its roster younger.

A cynic might say the Vikings know they won't compete for an NFC North title in 2012, making this season as good of a time as any to break in a new place-kicker. Here's what general manager Rick Spielman said Wednesday:

"I think our emphasis has always been trying to get our team better, get it younger, and that's the direction we kind of went. It just fits in with everything else we’re kind of honed in on this offseason."

It's hard to argue with that approach after a 9-23 record over the past two seasons. But as we first discussed last fall, it threatens to nullify the prime of one of the NFL's best players.

Peterson is 27 and has taken the pounding of five professional seasons. By the standards of NFL running backs, at least, the clock on his career is already ticking. It's more than reasonable to wonder what type of performer he will be when the Vikings see the fruit of their rebuilding project.

I asked Peterson what he thought of the Vikings' offseason approach, and he focused mostly on praising Spielman's draft. Peterson also admitted that "the biggest part of my motivation" to return in Week 1 is because "I know how much I mean to this organization." He added: "I want to be out there helping my team and organization accomplish the ultimate goal."

Even with Peterson in the starting lineup, the Vikings figure to have new starters at 11 positions in 2012 in addition to an unproven second-year quarterback in Christian Ponder. In all likelihood, it will be a year measured by progress, not playoff contention.

I'm not going to suggest the Vikings should hold Peterson out of the lineup once he's medically cleared. But in the big picture, there seems to be every reason to take it as slow as possible. If Peterson can avoid some wear and tear during a rebuilding season, wouldn't that help the Vikings in the long-term?

That's a cold and calculated analysis that isn't likely to apply in this case. Neither the Vikings nor Peterson should time his rehabilitation progress based on the projected competitiveness of the team. NFL teams are expected to compete with all available resources at all times. It's not for Peterson to "save" himself for future seasons. The timing is what it is.

The best thing Peterson can do in the short-term is help this team squeeze out a few more victories than it appears capable of while imposing his fanatical work ethic on others. He seems to understand that as well. During rehabilitation a few weeks ago, Peterson noticed some teammates running sprints. Sugarman gave him permission to join them. He wiped out the field.

"Those guys got an understanding of 'Hey, he's really pushing hard to get back out to a level better than he played at before' and it was even more motivation for those guys," Peterson said. "It was like, 'Hey he's out here four months and he's beating us.' Maybe we need to do something different."

Knowing Adrian Peterson, he'll do everything he can to will the Vikings to more success than expected in 2012. It's reasonable to question whether it will be enough, and to wonder how long it will take the rest of this roster to catch up. Will Adrian Peterson be this generation's Barry Sanders? Is he a Hall of Fame player whose career window doesn't match up with his team's window for winning? That's what it feels like at the moment.

As many of the loyal readers of the AFC North blog know, I believe the Cleveland Browns made the right move in draft running back Trent Richardson. The Browns need an offensive playmaker, and Richardson was clearly the top one remaining after Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.

Others don't agree. ESPN's Jeffri Chadiha sees Richardson-Browns as the "worst marriage" in this year's draft. Here's how Chadiha sees the situation:

There are plenty of reasons to like Richardson, including his college production, intangibles and overall toughness. What's hard to ignore is the recent history of highly drafted running backs in the NFL. Only two runners taken in the first round since 2007 have turned into stars -- Minnesota's Adrian Peterson and Tennessee's Chris Johnson -- and Richardson doesn't possess the explosiveness or speed of those two.

The Browns also have a lousy passing game, which means Richardson will find more defenders focused on him every time he lines up. That doesn't mean he won't be productive at all. It just means he isn't as likely to live up to the status of being the third overall pick in the draft. Keep in mind, Browns Hall of Famer Jim Brown already has called him "ordinary." From this vantage point, it's easy to think other people might have a similar opinion of Richardson this season.

While he makes valid points, I'm going to have to disagree. I see this as a perfect pairing. The Browns' offense got pushed around too much last season, and it gained a tougher attitude with Richardson. He's the type of back that Cleveland needs to compete against the likes of the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals.

What will help this "marriage" in the future is the addition of deep threats. When defenses began to stack the box against Richardson, the Browns need to be able to counter with a strong-armed Brandon Weeden throwing downfield to receivers who can gain separation.

One point that everyone can agree on is Richardson is the type of talent that will cause defenses to adjust and react. You couldn't say that about anyone on the Cleveland offense last season.

Never has the NFC North's transition been more visible than on the final day of the 2011 regular season. On a snowy day at Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions combined for 103 passing attempts and 1,000 passing yards.

By the time the Packers secured a 45-41 victory, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford had exceeded 5,000 yards passing for the season and Packers backup Matt Flynn had convinced the league he was a starting-caliber quarterback. Where once we could have expected the teams to grind out a classic Black and Blue game, they instead combined for a total of 37 carries. No running back made it to the modest total of 50 yards.

We've spent some time this offseason noting what we could politely call a tilt toward the passing game in both Detroit and Green Bay. We've discussed the Chicago Bears' seeming ambivalence about signing tailback Matt Forte to a long-term extension, and we've pointed out the Minnesota Vikings' uncertainty as tailback Adrian Peterson rehabilitates his shredded knee.

If you looked at this division through a traditional lens, you could consider running back a significant draft need for at least half of the division, if not all of it. But the NFC North's frenzied quarterback acquisitions over the past few years have brought us to a precipice. Are we ready to jump off, once and for all, into the world of Air and Space? Or will our teams step away from that ledge and rebalance their personnel, if not their scheme, to double back on the running game?

As the NFL continues its push toward passing supremacy, it's hard to imagine any NFC North team making anything other than subtle changes. Why take the ball out of the hands Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler or Stafford? And why not give Christian Ponder every chance to take the next step in his development?

This offseason, we've heard the Vikings speak often about seeking more playmakers for Ponder. We've watched the Bears sign Michael Bush as insurance against Forte's possible absence, but otherwise the Bears have worked to fortify their passing game with the acquisition of receiver Brandon Marshall and private meetings with many of the draft's top receivers, from Michael Floyd to Stephen Hill to Alshon Jeffery.

The Lions are the case study here, followed closely by the Packers. Injuries to Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, Kevin Smith and the brain tumor of Jerome Harrison left them little choice but to rely on Stafford's arm last season. They finished 2011 with the second-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL, managed 71 rushing first downs (No. 29 in the league), according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Stafford told reporters this week that "everybody on our team would like to be a little more balanced than we were last year." It's reasonable to think they will be if Best and/or Leshoure are available full-time. But a serious commitment to improve would almost certainly require a draft investment. Best (concussion) has not been cleared for football work, Leshoure (Achilles) is coming back from a serious injury for a running back, and Smith has had difficulty staying healthy throughout his career.

How much do the Lions value that balance? We should find out over draft weekend. Again, most of us would look at their roster and toss question marks all over their backfield. But in 2012, how important is it to have an established and traditional No. 1 running back?

"We want to score as many points as we can," coach Jim Schwartz said at the NFL scouting combine. "Whether you do it running or passing, it doesn't matter. I think you want to try to get the ball in playmakers' hands."

In the end, the Lions might be best-served by pursuing a more modest goal: Being in position to capitalize against imbalanced defenses. Dictating a game on the ground might well be an NFC North artifact.

"If teams take the approach of playing the pass first," Schwartz said, "we should be in the position of having running backs who can make them pay for that."

Yes, there is a more than reasonable argument to be made that you don't need an elite running back when you have elite quarterbacks and receivers. A competent running back who doesn't miss the obvious yards might well suffice.

I don't know if the Lions, or the Packers for that matter, will invest a high draft pick in a running back. None of us do. But is it necessary? Probably not, at least not in our new Air and Space division. Soon we'll know how far off the cliff we've fallen.

My trip to the NFL owners meetings last month included a chance encounter with an NFL executive. We discussed the state of what has become a highly competitive and interesting division from a league perspective, given the Green Bay Packers' recent success, the Detroit Lions' explosive offense and the Chicago Bears' flurry of offseason improvements.

And then we got to the Minnesota Vikings.

"Big year for Leslie Frazier," the executive said. "Big year."

That perspective caught me by surprise, given that Frazier has spent exactly one full season as the Vikings' permanent head coach. But Frazier is also entering what reportedly is the final fully guaranteed year of his contract, and the long-term approach the Vikings have taken toward building their roster provides a substantial challenge to a coach with limited job security.

That's a nice way of saying Frazier probably needs to do a lot better in 2012 than the 3-13 record he produced last year, but with a roster that won't be constructed to support a quick turnaround. It's an unfortunate collection of circumstances that Frazier is only partially to blame for, but when viewed in the big picture, you can understand why the executive sees 2012 as a pressure point for his career.

(My friend Judd Zulgad of 1500ESPN.com made a similar point last week.)

When the Vikings promoted Rick Spielman to general manager in January, Frazier said the move "should help me tremendously." Generally speaking, working for a good general manager is a healthy situation for any coach.

But since that point, the Vikings have dismantled their offensive line by releasing both starting guards and making plans to shift left tackle Charlie Johnson inside. They've given young quarterback Christian Ponder one more established playmaker, tight end John Carlson, but otherwise left their offensive skill positions untouched in free agency. They've bid farewell to their nose tackle and middle linebacker, tapping longtime backups as the likely successor in each role, and left untouched two safety positions that ended 2011 in shambles.

Spielman has made no secret of his intention: To get younger, to find blue-chip players in the draft and to supplement with complementary players in free agency. That's a sound philosophy for building long-term success, but it sure doesn't work in favor of a coach whose career record is now 6-16.

Take a look at the chart. A little more than half of the NFL's coaches (18 of 32) have reached a third full season in their jobs. Only four of them made it without the benefit of at least one non-losing season in their first two. And the only two who didn't demonstrate progress were the Washington Redskins' Mike Shanahan and the Seattle Seahawks' Pete Carroll, both of whom carried enough celebrity status -- and not to mention huge financial investments -- to be all but assured of a third season from the moment they arrived.

But consider the Vikings' placement in the NFC North, which put three teams among the top 10 in ESPN.com's most recent Power Rankings. Remember that they will be starting Ponder, who is in the midst of his first NFL offseason. Ponder will play behind a rebuilt offensive line, with a set of receivers who will either be underwhelming or inexperienced or both.

In a best-case scenario, tailback Adrian Peterson (knee) will resume football activities shortly before the season begins. And in a division that includes star quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler, it's worth noting the Vikings' historically poor pass defense hasn't been enhanced this offseason with a single defensive back who could be considered a starter. (Perhaps that sentence will need editing after the draft.)

Does that seem like a collection of circumstances favorable to a coach demonstrating significant progress in 2012? Not particularly, no.

To be clear, I don't think the Vikings are in an inappropriate spot as a franchise. This has been coming since the moment they failed to reach the Super Bowl in 2009. It's just poor timing for Frazier.

The best time to make these kinds of difficult decisions is in the first year of a coach's tenure. You take the resulting lumps when your job is most secure, and then presumably demonstrate steady progress thereafter. The Vikings lost 13 of 16 games last season in a misguided attempt to push an aging roster toward one final playoff berth. It was a lost year in every way, and only now do they face a the proverbial bottoming-out. I don't want to say Leslie Frazier is set up to fail, but the deck seems stacked against him.

Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice said he wants to attend the team's offseason workouts and training camp. Whether he actually participates in them hasn't been determined.

Rice, who has yet to sign his franchise tag, isn't obligated to show up for any team activity. Many players choose not to attend to protest the tag, and others skip them to avoid getting injured while playing under a one-year contract.

“Me and my agent have been going over things and what we’re going to do is figure out what’s best for us going forward,” Rice told the team's official website. “We haven’t made a decision. As far as we know, we look forward to being [at offseason workouts]. Maybe it will be under some terms, whether I sign the tag or not. But I want to be there. I like to be around my guys.”

Rice made it clear he's due for a new contract. “Everybody knows I outplayed my contract," he said. "It’s not a hidden agenda. I think the Ravens have a history of taking care of their guys.”

ESPN.com's Andrew Brandt wrote an interesting piece on how negotiations with running backs can be tricky because there's no position with a shorter average career.

Of course, Rice figured into the discussion along with the Bears' Matt Forte. What stood out is how Rice could hold the key in whether he gets a long-term deal or gets the tag again next season. Here's what Brandt had to say:

"My sense is the Ravens and Bears would be willing to commit to the level of contract [Marshawn] Lynch and [Arian] Foster commanded. But if Rice and Forte are intent on reaching the level of the [Chris] Johnson and [Adrian] Peterson deals, the tag might persist."

The ballpark for Lynch and Foster is around $20 million guaranteed. The neighborhood for Johnson and Peterson is much pricier at $30 million.

Rice denied a previous report that he's seeking a deal similar to the one signed by Peterson but he did allude to contracts recently signed by other running backs.

“I didn’t set the number for what the running backs got paid,” Rice said. “There’s other guys that got paid before me with lesser stats, lesser numbers, or maybe the same productivity. I didn’t set that number.”

Here is probably the most important detail in the fast-breaking news of receiver Calvin Johnson's monster contract extension: It will shave about $9 million off his 2012 salary cap number, according to the Lions' website.

That means Johnson's 2012 cap number will fall somewhere between $12 million and $13 million, a significant reduction from the $22 million hit the Lions were taking under the final year of his original rookie contract. It's enough to ensure the Lions can sign their draft class along with a couple of veteran free agents, one of which could well be middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch.

As whopping as the numbers in Johnson's deal are, the truth is Johnson probably could have asked for more. I'm not sure that I would call a $132 million deal, of which almost half is guaranteed, a "hometown discount." But Johnson had all of the leverage in this negotiation; had he done nothing, he would have earned $18 million in 2012 and then been eligible for a $26.4 million franchise tag in 2013 and a $31 million tag in 2014. Over three years, his annual salary would have averaged $25.6 million.

There was no way the Lions or any other team could afford such a huge cash or cap commitment, and Johnson knew that. In exchange for accepting a deal that averaged "only" $16.5 million per year, he received $60 million in guarantees.

That number blew away even the richest NFL players, but around the league, Johnson has received instant praise and well-wishes as the type of player and person who would merit such a deal.

Among them was a tweet from Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson: "Calvin Johnson! Brother you're Worth every cent!!! But hey,Can I borrow a Dollar! Hahaha Now that's how its done! Congratulation!"

Peterson's contract extension last summer was worth $100 million and included $36 million in guarantees, which should give you some context for how lucrative Johnson's deal is.

I'm sure you're tired of the dry salary-cap discussions we've had in relation to Johnson's future. But they were critical to the short- and long-term success of the Lions franchise. Johnson will continue to represent a significant cash and cap commitment in the years to come, but the Lions now have more cost certainty and no longer face a short-term crisis. That's a win for everyone.

It's been clear for some time that the Minnesota Vikings wouldn't be in position to trade their No. 3 overall pick to a team that wanted to draft Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. Griffin's performance in last month's NFL scouting combine sealed his spot as the second-best player in the draft, and on Friday night the St. Louis Rams traded the No. 2 pick to the Washington Redskins for a bounty that will make Vikings fans rue the day their team dropped from contention for the No. 2 pick themselves.

As you assuredly know, the Vikings were on track to have the NFL's second-worst record before they defeated the Redskins 33-26 in Week 16. (Tailback Adrian Peterson also suffered a major knee injury in that game, an unrelated but no less serious event.) After Friday night's trade, we now know the difference between winning and losing that game was two future first-round picks and a second-rounder.

That's the premium the Redskins paid the Rams to swap first-rounders in 2012, presumably to draft Griffin. With Andrew Luck and Griffin expected to go 1-2 in the draft, it's far less likely that a market will emerge for the Vikings' spot at No. 3. If it does, the bounty will be nothing close to what the Rams got from the Redskins.

Obviously, I'm not suggesting the Vikings should have done anything other than play to win against the Redskins. I'm not a proponent of tanking. In the end, that game was just another chapter in the star-crossed history of this franchise. The Vikings will do well to draft USC left tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3 next month, but they missed out on an opportunity to jump-start their rebuilding process with a rare volume of high draft picks in the coming years. Such is life.

We've known the market for the NFL's top running backs for some time. The Minnesota Vikings guaranteed Adrian Peterson $36 million as part of a seven-year deal last summer, and the Tennessee Titans awarded Chris Johnson $30 million in a six-year extension.

Now we have a decent idea of how NFL teams value the next tier of running backs. The Seattle Seahawks signed Marshawn Lynch to a four-year deal Sunday night that includes $17 or $18 million in guarantees, and hours later the Houston Texans agreed on a five-year deal with Arian Foster. Terms of that deal haven't been reported yet, but it's reasonable to assume it falls between Lynch's deal and the five-year contract the Carolina Panthers gave DeAngelo Williams last summer; Williams' deal included $21 million in guarantees.

Why are we hashing through that information? Because it should help solidify the market for Matt Forte, whom the Chicago Bears made their franchise player last Friday.

If a dispute remains, it's this: What tier does Forte belong in? Did Forte's multi-faceted performance in 2011, in which he amassed 1,487 all-purpose yards in 12 games, make him one of the NFL's top backs? Or should he be paid closer to the range of Williams, Lynch and/or Foster?

The market has formed well enough for the sides to reach a long-term agreement, which would allow the Bears to rescind the franchise tag. But that's only if they can agree on Forte's standing among his peers. As always, your thoughts are welcome.

The deadline to put the franchise tag on players is Monday, but most teams will announce their intentions this afternoon to avoid any last-minute snags.

The only AFC North player guaranteed to get the tag is running back Ray Rice. The Ravens will gladly pay him $7.7 million to keep him this year. The NFL's leader in total yards from last season would have been the top free-agent running back.

There was a report that indicated Rice is seeking Adrian Peterson money. The Vikings running back signed a seven-year, $100 million deal last year (including $36 million guaranteed).

In addressing the report, Rice's agent, Todd France, told the Carroll County (Md.) Times: “Maybe it’s because people assume since Ray has led the NFL in yards from scrimmage since becoming a full-time starter in 2009 that he should be the highest-paid running back in the NFL. Regardless of where it came from or who said what, I won’t comment on any specifics of our negotiations except to say my focus is to have an amicable negotiation process that results in a long-term contract for our client.”

The other near certainty is that the Pittsburgh Steelers won't use the tag. There had been talk about the Steelers putting the tag on wide receiver Mike Wallace to protect the restricted free agent, but Pittsburgh has reportedly decided to give him a first-round tender. There is no one else to consider for the franchise tag because Pittsburgh's top unrestricted free agents (the ones who weren't cut) are cornerback William Gay, quarterback Dennis Dixon and punter Daniel Sepulveda.

It's unknown whether the Bengals or the Browns will use the tag. The top candidate for the Browns is kicker Phil Dawson, who received the tag last season. To franchise Dawson for a second time, the Browns would cost $3.3 million in base salary, which is 120 percent his 2011 franchise tag number of $3.1 million. The Bengals presumably would consider putting the tag on either kicker Mike Nugent ($3.1 million) or safety Reggie Nelson ($6.2 million).

There’s a debate among Tampa Bay fans about whether the Buccaneers should draft LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne or Alabama running back Trent Richardson with their first-round pick.

I don’t think either would be a mistake because the Bucs have needs at both positions. But there’s a longstanding rule of thumb in the NFL that you don’t take a running back early in the draft.

If you think that theory is outdated, you may want to take a look at this Insider post from Football Outsiders. It lays out some pretty convincing evidence that there’s not a lot to be gained by drafting a running back early in the first round.

The five leading rushers over the last five seasons are Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson and Michael Turner. Those five have combined for two playoff wins as starting running backs (and that doesn’t include two playoff victories Turner had as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson with the 2007 Chargers).

The column then points to the backfields of the two Super Bowl teams. The New York Giants had Ahmad Bradshaw (a seventh-round pick) and Brandon Jacobs (a fourth-round pick). The New England Patriots had a pair of undrafted running backs in BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead as well as third-round pick Stevan Ridley.

Yes, the Bucs need someone to pair in the backfield with LeGarrette Blount. But, unless they believe Richardson is the kind of player who can be an exception to a rule, they might be wise to wait until later in the draft -- or use free agency -- to add a running back.

The Ravens' Ray Rice is the top running back in this free-agent class. He's among the top three or four running backs in the NFL today.

But Rice is no Adrian Peterson and he shouldn't be seeking the seven-year, $100 million deal (including $36 million guaranteed) given to the Minnesota Vikings running back. If the SI.com report is accurate that Rice wants Peterson-type money, Rice will be disappointed because the Ravens won't be giving him anything close to that.

The Ravens will almost certainly place the franchise tag on Rice this year for $7.7 million, which is really a bargain when you consider Browns linebacker D'Qwell Jackson will get $8.8 million under the tag. In fact, the Ravens would probably prefer to use the tag on Rice for two years (which would cost them an estimated total of $17 million) before giving him a Peterson-type deal.

I'm not trying to slight Rice because he was the most valuable player in the AFC North last season. Over the past two seasons (including playoffs), the Ravens are 21-2 (.913) when Rice gets at least 20 touches. Rice also produced an NFL-best 2,068 total yards and set a team record with 15 touchdowns. He became the second player in NFL history to produce multiple seasons of 1,000 yards rushing and 700 yards receiving (Marshall Faulk was the other). Basically, Rice is really, really good.

But the Ravens are more willing to invest a long-term deal in Joe Flacco than Rice because NFL running backs haven't proven to be durable. The more realistic deal that Rice should be targeting is the one given to the Titans' Chris Johnson, who reportedly signed for $53.5 million over four years.

The Ravens' free agents are setting their sights high this offseason. It was last week when agent Joe Linta said Flacco has to be considered a top-five quarterback based on wins. Today, it's Rice wanting Peterson-type money. Who's next? Ben Grubbs?

There's no question that the Ravens want to keep Rice, who turned 25 in January. They're just not going to overpay to do so.