NFL Nation: AFC

It's early in the offseason. But from the looks of it, the Miami Dolphins want to run an up-tempo offense under first-year head coach Joe Philbin.

The former offensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers is known for putting pressure on defenses. Green Bay was as good as anyone in dictating tempo. Last year the Packers were third in total offense (405.1 yards per game) and first in scoring (35 points per game).

But can Philbin's philosophy work in Miami?

The key to Philbin's first year will be quickly learning and knowing his personnel. New coaches often make the mistake of assuming their system and concepts are one size fits all.

Miami quarterbacks Matt Moore or David Garrard certainly isn't Aaron Rodgers. Dolphins receiver Brian Hartline is not Greg Jennings, and tight end Anthony Fasano is not comparable to Packers tight end Jermichael Finley.

The Dolphins have uncertainty at quarterback and the worst group of receivers in the division. Going up-tempo has its risks. Miami could face plenty of three-and-outs, which would put a lot of pressure on its defense.

Philbin and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman need to be careful about this while installing their new West Coast offense. Green Bay's strengths under Philbin were the quarterback and passing game. It's much easier to go up-tempo when you have a Pro Bowl and Super Bowl-winning quarterback throwing to stud receivers and tight ends.

Miami doesn't have that on its roster this year. The Dolphins' strength is their running game behind their offensive line and 1,000-yard rusher Reggie Bush. It would be wise for Miami's coaching staff to keep that in mind.
» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it's never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Dolphins in 2012.

Dream scenario (9-7): So much has to go right for the Dolphins to have a winning season in 2012. For example, one of the quarterbacks -- Matt Moore, David Garrard or rookie Ryan Tannehill -- will have to step up and have a stellar season. An unproven group of receivers must play above their talent level. Rookie head coach Joe Philbin has to push all the right buttons in his first year, and the defense must make a smooth transition to the 4-3. The chance of all these things falling perfectly in place for Miami is slim. But if it does, Miami could string together some wins in the AFC East and have a respectable season. Can the Dolphins carry over late momentum they gathered at the end of last season? Miami was 6-3 in its last nine games. But that was with a different coaching staff and different schemes. The Dolphins are not very talented, but they are a tough group. They could make it hard on a lot of opponents, and perhaps steal more wins than people expect.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Miami is in the process of rebuilding. There's always an element of danger in that teams can fall apart and lose confidence when they’re not in contention. I think the Dolphins are probably a five- or six-win team next season. They could win a few games with their tough defense alone. But if nothing goes right and things fall apart, the worst-case scenario could be an ugly two-win season. The offense is a rough project. The Dolphins are installing a new West Coast offense and don't have the receivers to make it run smoothly. The biggest key is quarterback. If Moore and Garrard both struggle or get hurt, the Dolphins have no shot. It could also lead to Miami playing its first-round pick too soon. Tannehill could find himself leading a bad team before he’s ready. Think of what happened to Blaine Gabbert last season. That’s a nightmare the Dolphins want to avoid.
» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Buffalo Bills in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): It would be a dream for Bills fans to see their team back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. The last time we saw Buffalo make the postseason, the Bills were the victim of the “Music City Miracle” in 1999. It has been a long line of disappointments and underachieving since that historic play. (Many Bills fans still contend that was a forward pass, by the way.) This year’s team looks poised to break the streak. This is the best team, on paper, that Buffalo has had in a long time. The offense will be dangerous if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick improves his consistency in the passing game and Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and the running game stay consistent. Buffalo also made improvements to the defense, including drafting corner Stephon Gilmore in the first round and adding stud defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Chances are, everything won’t fall into place for Buffalo. But this is a sleeper team that does have a chance to make a jump and contend for the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): Despite all the additions, there is no guarantee the Bills and their coaching staff can bring it all together in one year. What if Fitzpatrick continues to play like the second half of 2011 and is not the long-term solution? What if the defense struggles to make the transition to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt? What if big injuries again decimate this team? A lot can go wrong for the Bills, especially in a division where the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots are expected to dominate. The Bills are trying to catch up and cannot afford to make many mistakes in the AFC East. They were 1-5 against division foes last year. Bills head coach Chan Gailey is only 10-22 in his first two years in Buffalo. He has more talent than he has ever had with the Bills. There are no excuses for Gailey this year. It’s still somewhat of a mystery whether Gailey can coach. But we will find out in 2012.
BradyMark J. Rebilas/US PresswireWithout Tom Brady under center, the New England Patriots become just an ordinary team.
The New England Patriots have played in five Super Bowls -- winning three -- since they drafted quarterback Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000. They also have eight division titles in that span, and Brady and coach Bill Belichick recently became the winningest quarterback-coach combo in NFL history.

But all of that comes to an end when Brady retires.

Brady, who turns 35 in August, says he wants to play in New England until he's 40. That is great news for the Patriots, because they will struggle the second the future Hall of Famer hangs it up.

Things that have become foreign to New England the past dozen years will become routine again. New England will have down years and miss the playoffs -- just like everybody else. The Patriots won't survive various injuries -- just like everybody else. The Patriots also will run through a few quarterbacks, too -- just like everybody else.

On Wednesday, ESPN.com examined potentially dominant teams in 2015 . At that point, I think New England's easy run over the AFC East will be a thing of the past.

Here are four reasons New England will struggle in the post-Brady era:

No. 1: Patriots won't immediately find Brady's replacement

Brady's story is once in a generation. He's a former sixth-round pick who slipped through the cracks to become one of the top five quarterbacks of all time. Brady had the drive and “it" factor to become the greatest player in franchise history. Brady often is compared to Joe Montana, because they share a similar story about 20 years apart.

The chances of New England finding another Brady anytime soon are slim.

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Ryan Mallett
Stew Milne/US PresswireWill Ryan Mallett be ready to take over for Tom Brady when the future Hall of Famer is ready to hang it up?
Patriot fans will scream Ryan Mallett is a future franchise quarterback. But how does anyone really know, considering the 2011 third-round pick hasn't thrown an NFL pass?

What about Brian Hoyer? The undrafted quarterback has shown small flashes but certainly not enough to warrant Pro Bowl status. The drop-off going from Brady to 99 percent of other quarterbacks will be steep.

Even if Mallett or Hoyer turn out to be viable starting quarterbacks, neither will be nearly as good as Brady. Is Mallett or Hoyer a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. Will either quarterback perennially make the Pro Bowl? Not likely.

New England has been able to overcome poor defense, injuries and at times average receivers to still be competitive. Brady was great enough to carry the Patriots through various weaknesses. That no longer will be a luxury in New England. It will be much harder to get everything right with other areas of the team, especially if the quarterback position is in flux.

No. 2: The offense is old

Brady is turning 35 in August. No. 1 receiver Wes Welker is 31. Starting receiver Brandon Lloyd is 30. Longtime left tackle Matt Light just retired this offseason. Guard Brian Waters may follow, if not this year then soon after.

When Brady is gone, it's likely all of these important offensive pieces will be gone as well. A Patriot offense without Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Light, Waters, etc. means New England is virtually starting over in a few years.

The Patriots still have a couple young stars in tight end Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. But consider this: One tight end probably will bolt in free agency. Both Gronkowski and Hernandez -- two of the top five players at their position -- have rookie contracts set to expire in two years. Both will be looking for huge paydays, and New England can't do that with two players at the same position.

New England most likely will throw the money truck at Gronkowski, perhaps making him the highest-paid tight end, and let Hernandez walk. Brady also will be 37 and possibly retired or on his last legs by the time both tight ends will look for extensions. Returning to New England's offense long-term won't be as attractive two years from now for a pending free agent like Hernandez.

No. 3: Sun is setting on Belichick

Belichick just turned 60 years old. How much longer will Belichick coach the Patriots?

Belichick has coached in the NFL in some capacity for 37 years. He is approaching his fourth decade in the league.

Even head coaches have a shelf life. Belichick currently is the NFL's fourth-oldest head coach behind Tom Coughlin (65) of the New York Giants, Romeo Crennel (64) of the Kansas City Chiefs and, by a few months, Chan Gailey (60) of the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps we are also witnessing the last few years of Belichick roaming the sidelines.

A good debate topic in New England would be who contributed more to the Patriots' dynasty the past dozen years: Brady or Belichick? Both are Hall of Famers. But in my opinion, Brady's development and dominance at quarterback is a stronger factor in New England's success. Belichick would not have won all those games, division titles and championships in New England with shoddy quarterback play. Brady remained dominant and kept the team afloat, even when Belichick struggled coaching the defense, which is Belichick's specialty.

No. 4: The rest of the AFC East will catch up

I often call the AFC East the "Brady and Belichick division." They're the great equalizers who keep the Patriots on top.

But without Brady in a few years, and perhaps Belichick, all four teams are back to an even playing field. Who will be the top quarterback in the AFC East when Brady retires? Ryan Tannehill? Mark Sanchez? Tim Tebow? Someone else?

Maybe all four teams will have average quarterback play. That means the Patriots, New York Jets, Bills and Miami Dolphins must rely on other areas to be successful and win the division.

Can the Patriots rely on their defense to lead the way? Not right now. Not even close. New England is in no position to overcome poor quarterback play, and that probably won't change overnight.

I expect Brady to play at least two more years (2012 and 2013) at an elite level. He may opt to play beyond that. But after age 37, there's no guarantee Brady can continue to take the physical pounding and play at such a high level that we have become accustomed to. We've already seen nagging injuries bother Brady more than ever over the past couple of seasons.

Brady is a special talent the organization will probably never see again. So enjoy the success now, Patriots fans. New England will come back to earth and be an ordinary team again in 3-5 years.

Pressure point: Bills

May, 18, 2012
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» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Bills and why.

Things are looking up for the Buffalo Bills. A team that finished 6-10 and in last place in the AFC East in 2011 had arguably the league's best offseason. The Bills acquired defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson in free agency, drafted first-round cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and gave contract extensions to in-house stars Fred Jackson and Steve Johnson.

But each move adds more pressure to third-year Bills coach Chan Gailey, who is 10-22 in his first two seasons in Buffalo.

Is Gailey a good NFL head coach? It's hard to say. Gailey was 18-14 in two seasons with the Dallas Cowboys before he was abruptly fired. Gailey still carries that sting after getting relieved without ever posting a losing season in Dallas. Gailey has struggled in Buffalo, but hasn't had nearly the same talent that he had with the Cowboys.

Talent is no longer a question this year in Buffalo. The Bills spent to the cap to nab top free agents, and many in-house players are coming into their own. Buffalo now has enough talent to make a playoff push. The question is, can Gailey and his staff put it all together?

This is a no-excuse year for Gailey. It's time to finally show what he can do in Buffalo with a bevy of talent at his disposal.

Pressure point: Dolphins

May, 18, 2012
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» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Dolphins and why.

Some starting NFL quarterbacks have one challenger breathing down their neck waiting to take their job. But very few incumbents have two quarterbacks gunning for them. That is the situation Matt Moore of the Miami Dolphins is in.

Moore is coming off a career year, going 6-3 in his last nine starts for Miami in 2011. He was the second most consistent quarterback in the AFC East to Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. However, that wasn't nearly enough for Moore to enter this season as Miami's unquestioned starter. He has to compete with veteran David Garrard in training camp.

Even if Moore fends off Garrard in the short term, he would still have to fight off Dolphins first-round pick Ryan Tannehill in the long term. Tannehill is clearly the quarterback of the future in Miami. How quickly Tannehill will take over depends on the rookie's learning curve and Moore's ability to win games.

It's a high-pressure situation for Moore, where it appears nothing will be good enough in Miami. Moore is entering the final year of his contract, and even if he puts up big numbers, Tannehill is expected to take his job for good in 2013.

Moore proved last season that he can handle pressure. He pulled the 0-7 Dolphins out of the gutter by infusing new energy. Miami played solid football in the second half of the season.

But this is a situation Moore won't survive with the Dolphins. The best Moore can hope for is to beat out Garrard and get enough playing time this year to show another team he can be a long-term starter.
Tom Brady/Wes WelkerStephen J. Cohen/WireImagePatriots stars Tom Brady, left, and Wes Welker were all smiles at the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady spent time with teammate Wes Welker last weekend at the Kentucky Derby. Between the schmoozing and excitement of horse racing, Brady should have given his top receiver a subtle message and said, "Buddy, it's time to get back to work."

There is one thing for certain about the Patriots: You do not fight the machine. Welker is facing an uphill battle he cannot win. Many have tried before him and failed. Welker is not the exception.

Welker has yet to sign his franchise tender and hasn't decided how long he's going to protest New England's one-year, $9.5 million offer. The potential distraction has been held to a minimum thus far. But it would only grow stronger if Welker continues to skip New England's offseason program.

The Patriots' mandatory minicamp is scheduled for June 12. The best advice is for Welker to have his mind made up by that time. Missing New England's current voluntary program is not a big thing. But if Welker also chooses to skip the Patriots' three-day veteran minicamp, that is when he's hurting the team in the eyes of the coaching staff.

At that point the gloves may come off with the Patriots -- and Welker doesn't want that.

New England is emotionless and shrewd in negotiations. Just ask three-time Super Bowl winner Willie McGinest, who apparently still carries some level of bitterness about how he was handled by the Patriots at the end of his career. McGinest recently got into a Twitter spat with Welker about his contract situation and delivered this stern message.

"We're all expendable at Patriot Place," McGinest tweeted to Welker.

McGinest is right. NFL players in general are expendable, but even more so in New England.

Welker needs to be more mindful of how Patriots players often are treated like replaceable and interchangeable parts. It happened to McGinest, who spent the final three years of his career with the struggling Cleveland Browns. It happened to Richard Seymour, who was great for eight seasons with the Patriots and suddenly shipped to the Oakland Raiders for a first-round draft pick. The Patriots also traded future Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings when Moss grew unhappy about his contract.

Welker should know better. No one player is above the team in New England. That is the Patriot Way.

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TBD
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty ImagesNew England signed four free-agent receivers, but can any of them match Wes Welker's production?
This is not to say Welker hasn't worked hard and doesn't have a point about long-term security. This is more about wisely navigating the cruel business side of the NFL. It's all about leverage. Welker has little. New England has plenty. Sometimes it's best to accept your fate and move forward.

Welker remains steadfast in shedding the franchise tag for a long-term contract.

"Through my body of work, through the past five years, I think what I've done I've earned a long-term deal,” Welker recently told ESPN Boston Radio. "It's what I am looking for and what I want. Hopefully that's the case and hopefully we come to something where we can make that happen."

Do not think for one second that New England is not prepared for the worst. All the Patriots have done this offseason is sign wide receivers.

New England signed receivers Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Anthony Gonzalez and Donte’ Stallworth in free agency. All are productive veterans who have a chance to add something to the offense. The Patriots also re-signed veteran Deion Branch, backup Matthew Slater, and drafted rookie receiver Jeremy Ebert. Chad Ochocinco and Julian Edelman also remain on the roster.

New England will have an elite passing game next season with or without Welker.

If Welker decides to stage a lengthy holdout, Lloyd and Gaffney would be the starters, while Branch, Gonzalez, Stallworth and Ochocinco compete in training camp for backup roles. New England also runs a lot of two tight-end sets with Pro Bowler Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This is still a very deep and talented group of targets for Brady, who also has a knack for making everyone around him a couple of notches better.

Despite 122 receptions and 1,569 yards last year, the Patriots have found a way to make Welker replaceable. But that's only if Welker chooses to be and doesn't sign his franchise tender.

There's always a chance the Patriots could have a change of heart between now and August. New England has the salary-cap room to extend the 31-year-old Welker and give him the long-term security he's seeking. But it's going to be on the Patriots' terms, not Welker's.

The next move should be the best move by Welker. He should sign the franchise tag, take the $9.5 million and see if anything changes over the next several months at Patriot Place.
Last week ESPN.com's blog team examined big questions around the NFL. I had four in the AFC East that need to be answered that you can check out here.

This week we want to look at four smaller questions about the AFC East. Credit goes to NFC East blogger Dan Graziano for the idea.

Will the Jets improve safety play?

Opponents found the weakness in the New York Jets' defense in the second half of last season. The Jets were exploited time after time over the middle of the field, particularly by opposing tight ends. It was part of the reason the Jets lost their final three games.

Will New York improved its safety play in 2012? The Jets are banking on LaRon Landry to be an upgrade over Jim Leonhard. Landry is a bigger hitter but his coverage skills are questionable. Landry also has injury concerns. Eric Smith struggled last season but will get another year in the starting lineup. Neither safety is known for coverage.

The corners -- Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie -- will do their job. But the Jets could have the same issues over the middle if Smith and Landry don't step up.

Will Shawne Merriman contribute?

Where does Merriman fit with the 2012 Buffalo Bills? It depends mostly on Merriman's health. The outside linebacker is trying to return from back-to-back season-ending Achilles injuries.

Buffalo could use a rejuvenated "Lights Out" coming off the edge this year. The Bills have made it a point to improve their pass rush by investing most of their free-agent dollars on starting defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Merriman has lacked the burst he had earlier in his career. But if he can add several sacks to the pile for the Bills, that would be a huge bonus.

Can the Miami Dolphins find a second pass-rusher?

Speaking of pass-rushers, the Dolphins have one in Cameron Wake, who just received a $49 million extension. But who will take the pressure and double-teams off Wake, which was a major issue last season?

Miami's defense is strong in many areas. The team is expected to use more 4-3 looks under first-year defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. Wake will be a threat on one edge, but someone needs to step up on the opposite side.

Miami's second-leading player in sacks last year was Jason Taylor, who is retired. Maybe defensive lineman Jared Odrick has the potential to fill the void. The Dolphins also drafted Olivier Vernon in the third round to bolster the pass rush.

Will Patriots' running game produce?

The reigning AFC champion New England Patriots improved their defense. They upgraded their wide receivers and signed several offensive linemen.

But what about New England's running game? The Patriots did little at tailback. They lost leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis and signed Joseph Addai, which is a downgrade. Addai averaged just 3.7 yards per carry last season.

The key will be the development of second-year running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. New England hopes one or both players make a big jump in Year 2. The Patriots will be a pass-heavy team. There's no denying that. But the running backs have to make the most of their opportunities when quarterback Tom Brady isn't throwing the ball.
DAVIE, Fla. -- The Miami Dolphins' quarterback of the future is doing everything he can this weekend to prove he can be the quarterback of the present.

Ryan Tannehill, Miami's No. 8 overall pick, looked in control during his first NFL practice. Tannehill showed off his strong arm and natural leadership in rookie mini-camp Friday. Tannehill says he already knows about "80-85 percent" of the playbook, which is very similar to the offense he ran in college.

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Miami's Ryan Tannehill
Steve Mitchell/US PRESSWIRERyan Tannehill works out during Dolphins rookie camp on Friday. Tannehill says he knows "80-85 percent" of the playbook.
Last week, Tannehill became the first quarterback taken in the opening round by the Dolphins since Dan Marino in 1983. Tannehill gives the city of Miami hope that this struggling franchise can eventually turn it around.

However, Tannehill is not expected to start right away. That distinction goes to veterans David Garrard or Matt Moore, who are expected to compete for the starting job in training camp while Tannehill gets up to speed.

It's early, but Tannehill was the best player on the field Friday amongst his rookie peers. He made some big-time throws, including a well-timed bomb to seventh-round pick Rishard Matthews. Tannehill also showed good mobility and command of the huddle. Several times he had to get less-familiar rookies lined up properly before running the play.

"I hope I'm looked at as a leader of the team, especially at this rookie mini-camp," Tannehill said. "A quarterback should be leaders of the team. I want to try to get guys going, and get guys playing together and make everyone around me better."

Things weren't perfect in Tannehill's first practice. He threw an interception over the middle in team drills after rookie sixth-round pick B.J. Cunningham dropped the ball. In fact, there were three drops on the day from rookie receivers. That had to feel familiar for Tannehill, who suffered from drops last season at Texas A&M.

It's not just the rookies. The receiver position as a whole will be a major question in Miami. Dolphins head coach and former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin wants to run an up-tempo West Coast offense that puts pressure on the defense.

"I thought overall the tempo was good and the effort was good," Philbin said of Friday's practice. "We told them in the meeting room our expectation wasn't that the execution would be perfect. I'm sure the film will verify that when we take a look at it."

The Dolphins have a long time to improve on the details between now and September. But overall the first day of the Tannehill era looked pretty good, all things considered. The rookie needs to continue having solid practices like Friday to convince Miami's coaches he's ready for the NFL.

"Guys are working hard and guys are making plays," Tannehill said. "I'm trying to help out as much as I can. Being in the offense for four years back at [Texas] A&M, it's not my first go-around."

Bills: One big question

May, 4, 2012
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Did the Buffalo Bills fix holes on offense?

The Buffalo Bills, who finished 6-10 and last in the AFC East, get a solid "A" for their offseason acquisitions in free agency and their selections in the draft. General manager Buddy Nix made very aggressive moves to get the team in position to make a run in 2012.

But did the Bills, my sleeper pick for 2012, do enough to plug their holes on offense? Buffalo invested a majority of its free-agent dollars on defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. The team also used its first-round pick on cornerback Stephon Gilmore. But the Bills didn't start to address the offense until the second round.

Buffalo's biggest offseason holes on offense were at left tackle and wide receiver. The Bills used their second-round pick on offensive tackle Cordy Glenn and their third-round pick on receiver T.J. Graham. Buffalo hopes both rookies can fill these important positions in Week 1.

Glenn is a solid prospect, but there are questions whether he can handle playing left tackle in the NFL. He split time at guard and tackle at Georgia. That helps in terms of versatility, but the Bills hope Glenn can fill the open left tackle spot full time.

Graham has a chance to compete for the No. 2 receiver position opposite Steve Johnson. Graham does not have prototypical NFL size (5-foot-11), but he does have very good speed to blow the top off the defense. A deep threat is something Buffalo's offense lacks. Graham will have a chance to compete with David Nelson and Donald Jones to be the No. 2 receiver. Nelson is more suited to the slot, and Jones has durability questions. Can Graham, a third-round pick, beat out a pair of veterans?
ESPN.com's NFL Power Rankings are back!

The NFL draft is in the books and free-agency is all but done. Now it's time to reassess the rosters.

Here is how the AFC East fared:

New England Patriots

Power Ranking: No. 2

Walker's vote: No. 2

Analysis: It's no surprise the reigning AFC champs are firmly at No. 2. They are the favorites once again to win the conference and the division. New England did a good job of drafting all defensive players until the seventh round. The offense is elite, and the defense needs to catch up. An underrated aspect to the Patriots' season is they have the easiest schedule in the NFL. Barring significant injury, I don't see any reason why they won't run away with another division title.

New York Jets

Power Ranking: No. 20

Walker's vote: No. 18

Analysis: New York's offseason acquisitions of quarterback Tim Tebow and top draft picks Quinton Coples and Stephen Hill didn't do much for its Power Ranking. The Jets come in at No. 20, which I think is a little low. Expectations are not high for this club, which could play in New York's favor. The talent to have a winning season remains, it's just a matter of whether this team can stay together. Chemistry issues and infighting ruined the Jets last season.

Buffalo Bills

Power Ranking: No. 23

Walker’s vote: No. 16

Analysis: The Bills continue to be near the bottom of the Power Rankings. But I like it, because it makes my pick of Buffalo a true sleeper in 2012. The national perception of Buffalo isn't great. Much of that is earned since the Bills haven't made the playoffs since 1999. However, I think the Bills have some great pieces for a chance to end the drought. I voted Buffalo much higher at No. 16. That gives the Bills credit, but not too much before they have a chance to prove anything on the field.

Miami Dolphins

Power Ranking: No. 27

Walker’s vote: No. 27

Analysis: I agree with Miami's placement. The Dolphins are solid on defense but could struggle on offense. Is Matt Moore the starting quarterback? Is it David Garrard? Who are the wide receivers? Miami patched some holes in the draft but certainly not enough. The Dolphins have a long way to go before they are a contender. Expect 2012 to be a rebuilding year.
The New York Jets had an unexpected luxury Thursday night when former North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples and former South Carolina defensive end Melvin Ingram were both on the board at No. 16. Most expected to the Jets to take Ingram, who appeared to be a great fit in Jets coach Rex Ryan's 3-4 defense.

SportsNation

Which draft pick will have a better NFL career?

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    28%
  •  
    72%

Discuss (Total votes: 3,955)

But New York took Coples instead. He has a ton of natural ability but questions about his motor. The San Diego Chargers happily took Ingram two picks later, and the development of both players will be something to keep an eye on.

Did the Jets make the right choice? ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. weighed in Insider:
"The Jets surprised me when they went with Quinton Coples over Melvin Ingram in Round 1. To be blunt, I just think Ingram is the superior player -- and I have outside linebacker as New York's top need. Coples is a more natural fit as a 4-3 defensive end, and the obvious conclusion is Rex Ryan intends to move him inside. Still, I don't see him as a significant help in a need area -- the pass rush."

The Coples-Ingram debate will linger in New York for the next few years. Coples should have a chip on his shoulder to prove he was the right choice for the Jets over Ingram.

DAVIE, Fla. -- Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill just wrapped up his first news conference with the Miami Dolphins. He is the new face of the Dolphins' franchise and a player they think can turn the team around.

Here are some notes from Tannehill's news conference at Dolphins headquarters:
  • The major question is how long will it take for Tannehill to see the field as a top-10 quarterback. Tannehill is not expected to play this season. But he's taking the right approach by not resigning himself to backup status behind Matt Moore and David Garrard. "I'm a football player and I'm a competitor," Tannehill said. "I want to be on the field and I want to compete. But I also realize that I'm coming in and there's veteran quarterbacks on this team that I can learn from."
  • Tannehill has good measurables. He's big and rangy. He looks the part of an NFL quarterback in person, which is important. Tannehill will take the field for the first time in rookie mini-camp next week.
  • I asked Tannehill about his leadership ability, because I think that's so important for the quarterback position. I was particularly curious about how he plans to lead despite being a rookie and working his way up the depth chart. "First of all, you got to get the respect of your teammates," Tannehill explained. "I've done it in a lot of different ways. But I want to get to know the guys. This is a new locker room and I have to get to know everyone. ... And your performance on the field is a big part of that. You have to be able to make plays on the field to get that respect."
  • Tannehill was happy to get his hands on Miami's playbook. He said many things looked familiar from the one he had in college. Tannehill played under Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman at Texas A&M. Sherman played a major role in bringing Tannehill to Miami.
Our latest SportsNation poll in the AFC East obviously focuses on the NFL draft. Day 1 is in the books, and we want your take.

SportsNation

Which AFC East team had the best first round?

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    12%
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    24%
  •  
    7%
  •  
    57%

Discuss (Total votes: 15,776)

Which division team had the best first round? There were five picks total on Thursday night, and four picks were used on defense.

Was it the Miami Dolphins? They drafted first at No. 8 and took former Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill. He is one of the biggest mysteries in this draft. Did the Dolphins land the next prolific quarterback or another draft bust?

Did the Buffalo Bills have the best draft? The Bills played it safe with cornerback Stephon Gilmore at No. 10. He is a solid player with the ability to start right away.

What about the New York Jets. They stood pat at No. 16 and drafted former North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples. There are questions about Coples’ motor but not his ability. Was he the best draft pick in the AFC East?

Finally, the New England Patriots made two shrewd moves to land defensive prospects Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower. The Patriots traded up twice, which was unconventional for them. Did New England have the best Day 1?

Using our SportsNation poll, vote on which team had the best first day of the draft. You can also share your thoughts in the comment section below.
videoDAVIE, Fla. -- There is no bigger boom-or-bust prospect in the 2012 draft than former Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Is he the next prolific NFL quarterback, or simply a product of pre-draft hype that led to becoming a top-10 pick?

Opinions vary. But the Miami Dolphins believe they have the answers to the Tannehill question. Miami has more inside knowledge on Tannehill than any other team and drafted its quarterback of the future with the No. 8 overall pick Thursday night.

Tannehill will rejoin Dolphins offensive coordinator and former Aggies coach Mike Sherman, who says Tannehill is a star in the making. There are many critics who believe Tannehill is fool's gold, but the Dolphins are very confident they made the right choice.

"This was an all-in decision," Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland said firmly. "From the football side, our scouts, our coaches ... we all felt very, very good about it."

Ireland hit the nail on the head. The Dolphins are betting the foreseeable future of the franchise on Tannehill -- for better or for worse.

If Tannehill develops into an upper-echelon quarterback, the Dolphins finally have the biggest piece to change their misfortunes. If Tannehill is a bust, it will set Miami back another three or four years.

"We're excited and thrilled," Dolphins owner Stephen Ross said of their first-round pick. "I've always said you need to be strong at the quarterback position, and now that's one of the strengths of this team. So I couldn't be happier."

The pick doesn't come without pressure. It's been 29 years since the Dolphins drafted a quarterback in the first round: Dan Marino in 1983. Those are some big shoes to fill.

It's also no coincidence Miami hasn't had a legitimate, franchise quarterback since Marino retired in 2000. The list of mediocre starting quarterbacks since included Cleo Lemon, Joey Harrington, Trent Green, Jay Fiedler, A.J. Feeley, John Beck and most recently Chad Henne. Tannehill will try to avoid being the next name on this infamous list.

Tannehill had only 19 career starts in college. There is a learning curve with Tannehill that isn't as steep for other top quarterback prospects like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, who went No. 1 and No. 2 to the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Redskins, respectively.

The good news is Tannehill is not expected to play in 2012. Barring unexpected injuries to Miami veteran quarterbacks Matt Moore and David Garrard, Tannehill probably will hold a clipboard next season. This will provide Tannehill ample time to learn the NFL game.

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Mike Sherman & Ryan Tannehill
Icon SMIRyan Tannehill will be reunited with former Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman.
Dolphins rookie head coach and former Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin kept Aaron Rodgers on the bench for several years before he became a starter and it worked out fine. But that wasn’t what Tannehill wanted to hear on draft day.

"I want to compete, that's just the competitor in me," Tannehill said in a conference call with the South Florida media. "Obviously with competition comes learning. It doesn't have to be a hostile competition. It's just competing."

Ireland said he’s going to leave Tannehill's playing time next season up to the coaching staff. But chances are, we won't know much about Tannehill until 2013. The boom-or-bust talk will have to wait for at least a year.

But Tannehill's ceiling is high if things go right in Miami. It also doesn't hurt that the quarterback competition in the AFC East is not very stout. It's pretty much Tom Brady, and then there's everyone else.

Tannehill has the physical ability to potentially rise above the struggling quarterback pile in the division that includes Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tim Tebow. If Tannehill becomes the second-best quarterback in the AFC East over the next two or three years, that's a huge advantage for the rebuilding Dolphins.

Remember this day, Dolphins fans. Tannehill is the draft pick that will either change Miami's misfortunes or extend the team's misery for several more years. The Tannehill mystery won't be solved overnight, but Miami feels it found the piece to eventually build this struggling franchise into a winner.

"I don't know if this energizes the fan base. What energizes the fan base is winning," Ross said. "I'm looking to field a winning team, because energizing a fan base only lasts a very short period of time.

"We're talking about winning in the long haul."
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