ESPN NFL

Will the pass rush for the Tennessee Titans improve enough?

The Titans had just 28 sacks last season, and the lack of pass pressure was at the core of many of their problems.

Did they do enough to address it? They jumped to sign Kamerion Wimbley after he was let loose by the Raiders in a cost-cutting move. He should provide a boost, but I don’t know that he will single-handedly solve the problem. The Titans will start Wimbley and Derrick Morgan, who’s due to stay healthy and consistently produce. Dave Ball was re-signed to pitch in. Seventh-round pick Scott Solomon out of Rice will get chances to rush.

Tennessee is talking again about more pass rush from linebackers, particularly last year’s second-round pick, Akeem Ayers, the starter on the strong side. But the Titans have talked about linebacker in the pass rush on and off for year and never actually make it a reality.

Hopefully the coverage is good enough that the Titans are not afraid to send an extra rusher from the linebacking corps or secondary. Keith Millard was hired as a pass rush coach who will work with players from all three levels on technique for getting to the passer.

The Titans need Wimbley to be productive and Millard to be influential to make passers less comfortable against them.

The Titans need a pass-rusher and a center. In a year they could really need a free safety. The right kind of receiver would be intriguing.

One spot we’ve not talked much about is linebacker. They spent a second-rounder on strongside linebacker Akeem Ayers last year, when they also found a dynamic middle linebacker in fourth-rounder Colin McCarthy.

Veteran Will Witherspoon is on the weak side. He has some big games, and some where he seems kind of invisible. The team can find a bigger guy who’s more of a playmaker for the spot, be it now or in 2013.

The depth is poor. Gerald McRath was a starter in 2010 and didn’t take advantage of the chance. He was only occasionally situational last season. Patrick Bailey and Tim Shaw can fill in for a bit, but they are primarily special-teamers.

I don’t think Tennessee will go linebacker at No. 20, but Alabama’s Dont'a Hightower or Alabama’s Courtney Upshaw could be in play.

More likely the Titans will tab someone a bit later like Cal’s Mychal Kendricks or someone further down like Utah State’s Bobby Wagner.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Thoughts on the Titans’ 22-17 loss to the Saints at LP Field:

What it means: A largely unfavorable day. The Titans lost while one of the teams they are fighting with for position for a wild card berth, the Jets, won. The Texans’ last-second win in Cincinnati means that Houston clinched the AFC South, but it hurt another wild card competitor, the Bengals.

What I didn’t like: Penalties were out of control. Mike Munchak’s team is supposed to be a disciplined bunch, but special teams and the offensive line were primary culprits. Eight penalties for 54 yards consistently slowed the Titans or helped the Saints. A couple mistakes will happen, but on this scale it’s both unacceptable and unsurvivable. The Saints were sloppy too, but Drew Brees found his moments. And at times, like when he had all day to throw to an open Marques Colston at the goal line, a high pass wasn’t a problem as the receiver had time and space to go up and get it, then get it in the end zone for a 35-yard score. His follow up touchdown throw to Colston, from 28 yards, fell neatly between Alterraun Verner and Cortland Finnegan.

What I liked: Jake Locker put a good ball on him and banged up receiver Nate Washington made a great play looking it in while Jabari Greer flew by a second late for a 40-yard touchdown with 5:58 left in the game that closed it to 22-17. He hit him again right near the end for another 40.

What I didn't like: The Titans' last two plays from the 5-yard line. The first was well-defended by Tracy Porter, but I question throwing to Marc Mariani no matter if Washington was out hurt. Locker ran and bought time on the last play, but has to at least try a throw instead of getting sacked.

What I want to know: What’s the trade-off between an aggressive third-and-1 call with a throw into the end zone when you then fail to convert the quarterback sneak on fourth down? We're talking the Titans' second-to-last drive there.

Injury concerns: Matt Hasselbeck suffered a left calf injury that knocked him out of the game, thought he limped on and hopped off for one play when Locker took a tough shot to the ribs. Linebacker Akeem Ayers suffered a shoulder injury and No. 2 running back Javon Ringer injured his hand. Neither returned to action after getting hurt. Washington had to be tugged off the field by Chris Johnson after his late catch.

What’s next: The Titans head for Indianapolis for their second game against the winless, division-rival Colts.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars tight end: This offseason MMA training was supposed to transform him and take his game to another level. That’s great if his hips are opening up better, but does it matter if he’s not catching the ball and if he hasn’t earned the confidence of the team’s rookie quarterback, Blaine Gabbert? If Tennessee’s Chris Johnson wasn’t getting all the attention, there would have been far more attention on Lewis’ poor production and we’d be asking the same question: Did he get happy and relax after landing a big contract at the start of training camp? Blocking well is not enough. This team expected and deserves more.

2. The Colts' decision to IR Kerry Collins: Look, the veteran quarterback wouldn’t automatically be fixing all that’s wrong with the Colts. But if his concussion has cleared up he’d sure provide a better alternative right now to Curtis Painter than Dan Orlovsky does. And if Collins were available and could put together one steady game with some big pass plays mixed in, the Colts would have their chance to win a game. Instead, they’re choosing between two bad options and are going to be hard-pressed to find a victory.

3. The Texans’ confidence, potentially: They’re coming off a fourth straight win and feeling great and, bam, bad news about their quarterback. Matt Schaub’s done with a foot injury. The Texans are saying all the right things and I believe they do believe in Matt Leinart. But take a team heading for the playoffs and maybe even a first-round bye and tell it the quarterback who got it there is out, and it’s got to have a psychological effect. We’ve questioned the mental makeup of this team in this space before. The Texans seem to be making big strides in that department, and they’ve overcome the loss of significant guys in Mario Williams, Andre Johnson and Danieal Manning. But Schaub is a different deal. The quarterback is the centerpiece and he’s been steering things very well. Doubt can creep in.

RISING

1. The importance of everyone surrounding the quarterback for Houston: Leinart could do just fine as he steps in for the injured Schaub the rest of the way. But when the Texans start out with him in the huddle on Nov. 27 in Jacksonville, everyone else needs to make him as comfortable as possible. That means a continued excellent run game, behind continued great blocking from a line that also needs to protect well. It means reliable routes and catches from everyone in the Texans’ big stable of pass targets. The more they can do to ease him in, the better.

2. Tennessee Titans linebackers: Akeem Ayers, Will Witherspoon and rookie fill-in Colin McCarthy were active and effective for the Titans in Carolina in a very good collective effort. There was better work going on in front of them as the pass rush had its best day of the season. The Titans dragged Cam Newton down five times. McCarthy was solid in the middle playing for the injured veteran Barrett Ruud. Mike Munchak said Ruud (groin) will be back in when he’s ready, but McCarthy could get additional work in some packages.

3. Jeremy Mincey, Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end: He continues to get better, and on a defense with some veterans who were brought in with big contracts, he’s providing valuable energy as an edge rusher. In Indianapolis, he made a great spin move to get inside on Anthony Castonzo for the first sack, he helped Daryl Smith put Painter down to share a sack and got around the corner and swiped a fumble free from Orlovsky in the fourth quarter.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Kerry Collins, Indianapolis Colts quarterback and his pass protection. Collins was shaky early and by the time he settled down later the game was out of reach and the Texans had let up a bit. His protection was often overwhelmed by the Texans’ new 3-4 front, which got great effort and often overwhelmed an offensive line with three inexperienced starters. Collins can’t hold the ball as long, must hold it tighter when he might gets hit, and needs better work in front of him to have a chance.

2. Tennessee Titans special teams and new-found discipline. Four penalties on special teams in the first half didn’t suggest this team has evolved a great deal from the sloppy and careless crew Jeff Fisher left behind. There is no name in the game book for the first ineligible player downfield call, though it appeared to be Akeem Ayers. Jared Cook committed the same foul, Michael Griffin ran into the punter and Gerald McRath made an illegal block above the waist on a punt return.

3. Chris Johnson, Tennessean Titans running back. Much is being made of him getting only nine carries, but that’s not the biggest issue considering how the Titans hardly had possession against the Jaguars. He had six catches too. In 15 touches, he had only 49 yards. That’s 3.3 yards a touch. If that’s all he can get, a defense is stacking up to stop him. If so, the Titans have to be able to make teams pay with deep stuff. And while Kenny Britt had a big day, it was only on five catches.

RISING

1. J.J. Watt, Houston Texans defensive end. Veterans Mario Williams and Antonio Smith got more notoriety but Watt was consistently disruptive in the Texans’ win over the Colts and deserves mention as well. Effort isn’t going to be a question for this group and Watt’s as high-energy a player as you can find. He was the division’s most impactful rookie on opening day and he didn’t look like he will require any adjustment period to the pro game, at all.

2. Deji Karim, Jacksonville Jaguars running back. Maurice Jones-Drew wanted to be used more, but Karim’s play gave the Jaguars the option of keeping MJD on a pitch count. He’s coming off offseason knee surgery and the team wants to ensure his work is measured this season. Karim stumbled too often early, but found his footing. He was more dangerous as a receiver, with three catches for 39 yards, including a fantastic third-down conversion where he made two tackles miss after he’d run out of room short of the sticks.

3. Ben Tate, Houston Texans running back. Who knows what 2010 would have held for Tate if he hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury in the first preseason game of his rookie year. A year later, he’s part of a crowded backfield. But following a nice preseason, with Arian Foster in street clothes, and Derrick Ward sidelined with a knee injury, he became the lead guy. He did what a back in the Texans’ offense is now expected to do against the Colts: He consistently got to the second level, found room and was difficult to bring down.

One game that doesn’t count in the standings doesn’t give us a lot. But out of the Titans’ Saturday night win against the Vikings, I saw one change that I think is highly representative of what’s going on at the start of the Mike Munchak era.

Two moves since 2010 have bumped Gerald McRath out of the starting lineup as an outside linebacker. Akeem Ayers was drafted to play the strongside, and the addition of Barrett Ruud to man the middle means Will Witherspoon in now on the weakside. That is probably the team’s best lineup at linebacker in its base defense.

I have been critical of the lack of plays from the linebackers last season, particularly from McRath and the departed Stephen Tulloch.

Jeff Fisher and his coordinator, Chuck Cecil, stubbornly took McRath, a good pass defender, out on third downs, and left Tulloch, a weak pass defender, on the field. It was experience-over-skill-set stubbornness.

Right now, Munchak and coordinator Jerry Gray are pulling both Witherspoon and Ayers off the field in nickel and sending McRath on to join Ruud.

Whether it’s what the defense is doing on opening day in Jacksonville remains to be seen.

But it’s a clear illustration of the basic principle most good coordinators try to key on: Putting players in situations that maximize their chances to do what they are best at and keeping them out of situations where they do not excel.

If this is McRath’s role, he’s got a lot better chance to make plays than he did last season, when things were backwards and he was in base but not in nickel.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- The Titans severed ties with their coach and their quarterback and set about for a fresh start.

They’ll suffer from time lost with the lockout, but in Mike Munchak, a largely new staff and a new combo of quarterbacks in Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker, the franchise hasn’t just turned a page.

It’s opened a new book.

The early chapters could well be choppy and rough.

Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray is looking for a bigger defense that will stop the run first, and offensive coordinator Chris Palmer is bringing a scholarly approach to a group used to being screamed at. They have new signal callers on offense and defense (middle linebacker Barrett Ruud was signed as a free agent from Tampa Bay), so there is a lot of new stuff to cover.

But external expectations are low. If the Titans can get their best player, Chris Johnson, on the field and make strides on defense, it’s not impossible to improve on last season's disastrous 6-10 record.

Munchak preaches the virtues of being a true professional -- know what to do and do it. The question is, does he have enough talented guys who, following that mantra, can win football games?

THREE HOT ISSUES

1) Will Johnson be around?

It’s hard to imagine his sitting out the season. The flamboyant running back loves the NFL stage. But he's one of the league’s most dynamic players and is certainly scheduled to be underpaid at $1.065 million. The Titans won’t negotiate if he’s not at camp. He won’t come to camp without a new deal. There are currently no signs of any real movement.

He’s not fired up about a compromise that would have him join the team but not practice until a deal is reached. Someone will bend. But in the meantime, we’re likely to see a much less threatening offense.

“It’s tough to tell how long it takes to become an issue,” left tackle Michael Roos said. “Once he’s here he’s here and we start working with him. We’ll be a different team without him. He's definitely one of the top two, if not the best running back in the league. A special player, very dynamic. It makes for a different kind of offense when he’s not in there.

“The plays wouldn’t change. Just without having his speed in there people would play us differently. I wouldn’t say it would necessarily be a worse offense. It would just be someone else running it, Javon Ringer or the rookie (Jamie Harper). It wouldn’t have CJ’s dynamic and people having to worry about his speed.”

If defenses aren't worrying about that speed, things will be far more difficult for Hasselbeck and the team’s other best weapons, receiver Kenny Britt and tight end Jared Cook.

2) How will Munchak’s style translate?

He’s a Hall of Fame player, and he’s been a top position coach for years. Odds are Munchak can coach a football team.

“He’s his own man,” linebacker Gerald McRath said. “Everybody is going to have to sit back and watch, but it’s definitely going to be different. He has that personality. He wants to establish something that’s his, something that he’s worked hard for. I feel like it’s a great opportunity. It’s a privilege just to be involved in that, to be able to put into some of that.”

The question really is about his CEO role. How does he deal with the late-night calls about DUIs or the overeating defensive lineman? How does he react to the city calling for the starting quarterback’s head or the player enduring stuff at home that’s hurting his play?

Munchak has talked about accountability and discipline and consequences, things that all had slipped at the end for Jeff Fisher. Can he enforce all that effectively?

One other thing: Fisher was great with rules and clock management. In Munchak’s first turn in the primary headset, it will be interesting to see how he fares in those departments.

3) Can the Titans stay healthy up front?

Part of the Titans’ push to be bigger up front on defense is about being better against the run. Part of it is about being more rugged deep into the season. Some of Tennessee’s speed rushers in recent years wore down late, and the Titans suffered for it.

Tracy Rocker has big shoes to fill as defensive line coach, where Jim Washburn had a great run of success. Can Gray and Rocker show the discipline to pace the linemen the way they are talking about doing now?

“I think we have to be real smart this year because our (defensive linemen), for some reason, get hurt quite a bit,” Munchak said. “We have to limit their plays not only in games but in practice so you don’t lose guys… We have to find a way to keep them healthy. You can’t control all that, but we have to be smart.”

BIGGEST SURPRISE

It’s early, of course. But the team’s talking up Cook again, and this time he seems prepared to live up to it. The tight end is running plenty of routes that take him deeper than most tight ends, and the quarterbacks are thrilled to have such a big target stretching the field. He seems to be responding better to the mellow approach of Palmer than he did to the high intensity of Mike Heimerdinger.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT

Britt’s offseason was filled with off-the-field issues. The Titans gave him a clean slate coming in, but hamstring problems have kept him out of camp so far. He said that he thought yoga was going to help him solve such problems but that his instructor apparently took the money and ran with it. The Titans are already without their most dynamic player in Johnson. With Britt sidelined, they are also missing No. 2.

OBSERVATION DECK

• McRath is probably the odd man out in the linebacker shuffle, unless he makes a charge to overtake Will Witherspoon on the weakside. McRath knows he didn’t make enough plays last year, but he’s saying the right things and carrying himself the right way. Maybe he’s a special teams stud if he isn’t playing defense.
[+] Enlarge
Don McPeak/US PRESSWIRENew coach Mike Munchak, a Hall of Fame offensive lineman, will have high expectations for his interior line.
• The pressure is on the Titans' interior offensive line. Munchak and O-line coach Bruce Matthews, both Hall of Fame linemen, expect Leroy Harris, Eugene Amano and Jake Scott to play better in their second season all together. If they don’t, we’ll call it part missed assessment and part blown confidence. Keeping Hasselbeck upright and healthy is a huge deal.
• I’m not sure how the Titans will distribute their tight ends without tipping their intentions. Cook is the receiver and Craig Stevens is the blocker. Veteran addition Daniel Graham can do both but is more a blocker.
• Jordan Babineaux was lured to the Titans from Seattle largely because of his relationship with Gray when both were with the Seahawks. They shouldn’t do anything that entails Michael Griffin playing anything but centerfield. And Babineaux is more a free than a strong safety, But the Titans will blur the distinction. Can he challenge for Chris Hope’s job? If he does, will Hope take a pay cut to stay?
• The Titans actually have reasonable depth at cornerback. Cortland Finnegan needs to produce big in a contract year and Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty are up-and-comers. Ryan Mouton was lost for the year with an Achilles injury. But veteran addition Frank Walker made a nice early impression.
• This team always has an undrafted receiver who creates buzz early. This time it looks to be Michael Preston out of Heidelberg. He’s got nice size and athleticism.
• There’s not enough evidence to know if seventh-rounder CB Tommie Campbell can play yet. But he certainly had physical attributes that makes receivers take notice. Receiver Yamon Figurs recently went against him and came away muttering that Campbell was the biggest corner he’s ever seen. Figurs said Campbell, who is 6-foot-3, was “like a giraffe.”
• Jake Locker has shown steady improvement and has been far better early on that I anticipated he would be.
• If the Titans are going to be a lot better on defense, second-year end Derrick Morgan and second-round pick Akeem Ayers, a strongside linebacker, are going to have a lot to do with it. Morgan is a very good player, and Ayers bring the Titans size they’ve not had at linebacker since the franchise relocated.
• Leadership was a giant issue last season. There was hardly any when things got tough. The Titans' additions could solve that. Hasselbeck, Graham, Ruud and Ayers are going to be big in that department.
• Even if Justin Gage has a huge preseason, the Titans should consider moving on if everyone else is healthy. He’s simply not been a steady enough playmaker, and if his presence is going to keep the team from exploring the upside of someone like Damian Williams, it’s not the right move.
• Where does recently added, versatile veteran offensive lineman Pat McQuistan fit in? The Titans have a lot of young linemen they like, but his case for edging somebody out will include his experience at every position but center. That could increase their flexibility on the bench.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- The Tennessee Titans got what they were looking for at Matt Hasselbeck's first practice and said what you’d expect they’d say afterwards.

The tempo picked up, and while there were plenty of bumps, everyone was upbeat about what unfolded. At the same time, Jake Locker, working at the second quarterback, continued to show improvement and had a very nice night.

“I think I reverted back to some of my old stuff, but Geno [center Eugene Amano] and those guys up front did a great job of just hanging in there with me, snapping the ball,” Hasselbeck said. “I think I only went the wrong way once, that anybody noticed anyway.

“I have to learn it and I have to unlearn this stuff. What was once ‘green’ is now ‘red’ and what was ‘red’ is now ‘blue.’ In a competitive situation where everything is going real fast, everything just reverts.”

He said he’s getting way more from Locker, Rusty Smith and Brett Ratliff then they are getting from him so far and that quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains has been a great resource for scouting reports on his new teammates.

Coach Mike Munchak said the increased tempo allowed him to add an extra red zone period at the end of practice.

Said receiver Justin Gage: “In a day or two Matt will be right there with the rest of us. You can tell just from today, he’s a fast learner, he learns from his mistakes.”

A few other notes out of the Titans’ evening session on Thursday:

• Munchak indicated second-round pick Akeem Ayers is in line to play the strongside and Barrett Ruud was the first team middle linebacker out of the gate as you’d expect. That leaves the Titans with a battle between Will Witherspoon and Gerald McRath for the starting weakside job.
• The Titans are blurring the line between free and string safety and Munchak declined to say Chris Hope is solidly in place as a starter before the new free agent acquisition, Jordan Babineaux, even walks in the door. He’ll get a chance to compete.
• Titans’ union rep Jake Scott said he believes because there is only one company claiming it can accurately test for HGH, that he is skeptical of the accuracy of the testing. He’s for it in principle. “But their motives are questionable. Their incentive is to catch people,” he said. “If they don’t catch anybody, nobody thinks their test works.”

In different schemes under different coaches, players at the same position can be asked to do quite different things.

Still, looking back at 2010, I was struck by the lack of plays the Titans linebackers made.

Stephen Tulloch, who may be about to sign in Detroit, was credited with 169 tackles last season and didn’t force a fumble. The team sold Gerald McRath as a play-maker, and he made 60 tackles. didn’t force a fumble, didn't recover a fumble and didn't have an interception.

With the help of ESPN Stats and Info and profootball-reference.com, I put together two lists to gauge linebacker productivity beyond tackles around the league so I could compare the AFC South units.

Of course 3-4 defenses fare best here -- they play more linebackers and are built to have linebackers make more plays.

The first list looks at the combined total of forced fumbles, fumbles recovered and interceptions by linebackers.

• Jacksonville, 3, 32nd
• Houston, 4, 30th
• Indianapolis, 5, tied 29th
• Tennessee, 6, tied 26th

The top five were Pittsburgh (28), New England (17), New Orleans (15), Carolina (14) and Dallas (14). Of that group, only Carolina ran a 4-3.

The second list added in sacks, benefiting 3-4 teams even more. The entire AFC South ran 4-3 defenses last season. Houston is transitioning to a 3-4 now.

• Jacksonville, 6.5, tied for 32nd
• Houston, 7.5, 31st
• Indianapolis, 8.5, tied for 29th
• Tennessee, 11.5, 27th

The top five were Pittsburgh (60.5), San Diego (42.5), Green Bay (39), Dallas (37.5) and New England (34.5). Those are all 3-4s. The top 4-3 defense in this was Carolina, 15th with 22.

Perhaps I have unreasonable expectations. I want my linebackers who are always around the ball to do more than tackle. The occasional forced fumble can turn a game.

I understand big names like Brian Cushing, DeMeco Ryans and Gary Brackett missed significant time last season.

But Houston’s Cushing had four sacks, four picks and two forced fumbles when he was rookie of the year in 2009. That total of 10 was better than three AFC South teams got out of all their linebackers in 2011.

Jacksonville’s Daryl Smith had three forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, 1.5 sacks and an interception, in 2010. That was better than the Jaguars’ entire linebacker production all of last season and matched Houston’s.

I asked Tennessee’s Gerald McRath about the Titans lack of linebacker plays in 2010.

“We just didn’t make the plays,” he said. “There is no excuse in that. We have to take some steps to get better and to get back to where the Tennessee Titans are known for their style of play. That being said, the linebackers are going to have to step it up.”

Bottom line: Everyone in the division needs better linebacker play, even if they aren’t constructed to feature them. The Titans drafted Akeem Ayers. The Texans draft Brooks Reed. The Jaguars just signed Paul Posluszny.

There may be more attempts at upgrades to come.

There are plenty of questions I’ll be seeking answers for as the Titans hit the field at Father Ryan High School for a player-organized, minicamp-style practice today.

I don’t know how many answers we can expect.

Mike Munchak said this morning on Nashville radio that he sees the get-togethers as a positive, is pleased to see the leadership behind them and that he hopes things carry on until the coaches can be with the players again.

He joked about he and his staff had prepared for and played their opener against the Jaguars, came out of it 1-0 and have started to look at their Week 2 opponent. And he said his intention is to have the Titans practice in pads more and hold more training camp two-a-days than the team was accustomed to, not as a punishment, but as a necessity to get ready.

I’ll go watch his players in a bit, while hoping to return and provide some info on some of this:

Do Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson show? Britt’s been in trouble during the lockout and a Nashville appearance would be significant. Johnson is expected to bid for a new contract when he can. Reasonable questions surfaced about his leadership last season, and participating now could do a lot to start to answer them.

How does Jake Locker look? He’s in a tough spot as the lead quarterback, having never participated in a real Titans practice. Can he toe the line where he shows leadership but doesn’t try to do too much?

Who’s leading? We know Cortland Finnegan’s the chief organizer here. But some position groups lack clear-cut leaders even when everyone is around, and this will be less than a full roster. I’m curious who will work as the primary voices at spots like defensive line, where free-agent-to-be Jason Babin won’t be around and someone will need to step up.

What about the rookies? Locker and second-round linebacker Akeem Ayers are expected. Who else of the nine-player class will participate?

Are they handling the heat? The forecast calls for a high of 96 today, and it’s been in the 90s for about 10 days. Is everyone fit enough to handle it?

The questions about the Tennessee Titans' willingness and ability to play a 3-4 front continue to trickle in, like this one from Stu in Virginia:

"The more and more I look at the Titans draft class, they took a lot of 3-4 caliber guys and Jerry Gray saying they'll try to mix it up a little. How often do you see them in a 3-4 set?"

I’m going to have to beg to differ, Stu. Second-round pick Akeem Ayers would be good in a 3-4. Third-rounder Jurrell Casey may also fit in a 3-4, though he’d be small for it and is actually better suited to be on the nose in a 4-3.

That doesn't make for “a lot of 3-4 caliber guys.”

Even with Ayers, I don’t see them with three solid 4-3 linebackers, so it would be a real stretch to find four guys suited to that different system. With what they added on the defensive line and the holdovers, they should have a decent group of 4-3 linemen and they’ve got a couple ends who would be candidates to be re-signed too.

They don’t have the personnel or coaches to run much 3-4.

They’ll jump into it occasionally as a surprise or against specific things just to make people think and to mess with less experienced quarterbacks. But even shifting into it periodically could mean taking guys out of more favorable positions.

Generally, you are lucky to be good at one or the other. If you're trying to be both, it probably means you're not good at either. So my answer is, I don't expect much that's identifiable as 3-4.

The more important distinction is it won’t be a very predictable 4-3 like Jeff Fisher’s defense often was, where the linebackers were rarely involved in the pass rush -- they mostly played the run or stayed behind the ball when it was thrown.

I think you’ll see the Titans move guys around more, and clearly the intention is for Ayers to be on the line often as a fifth guy, making it difficult for an opponent to run that way or for a tight end to get cleanly off the line of scrimmage.

A few notes upon looking back at the six 2011 NFL mock drafts discussed here last week:

• Most had the right players in the right slots for most of the first six picks. Everything fell apart when the San Francisco 49ers selected Missouri's Aldon Smith at No. 7. Drafting a pass-rusher came as no shock. That it was Smith ran counter to expectations.
• Mel Kiper Jr. and Mike Mayock each had nine of the 32 players slotted correctly, regardless of which team wound up making the selections.
• Rob Rang had 29 of the 32 first-round selections going in the correct round. He missed on Da'Quan Bowers, Akeem Ayers and Andy Dalton. Rang was the only one of the six to predict James Carpenter and Christian Ponder as first-round selections. He had Carpenter going to Pittsburgh and Ponder in the 28th slot (later acquired by New Orleans from New England).
• All six mocks incorrectly thought Bowers would be a first-round selection. Five missed on Ayers and Aaron Williams.
• All six mocks correctly had Mike Pouncey landing with the Miami Dolphins at No. 15.
• Five of six mocks had Ryan Kerrigan going 16th overall. Kerrigan did go 16th, but only after the Washington Redskins acquired the pick from Jacksonville.
• Kiper had Jake Locker going 12th, higher than anyone else projected. Locker went eighth.
• Four teams drafted quarterbacks in the first round. All six mocks had Cam Newton going to Carolina. None of the six had quarterbacks going eighth to Tennessee or in the No. 10 slot, which Jacksonville acquired from Washington. Three of the six had quarterbacks going to Minnesota at No. 12. Kiper thought it would be Locker. Rang and the ESPN.com bloggers -- Kevin Seifert in this case -- thought it would be Dalton.

The first chart shows how many players the six mock drafts correctly saw as first-round picks, and how many went in the predicted slots within the first round.


The second chart shows which players appeared in the six first-round mocks, only to be selected in a later round. I've included their actual draft slots in parenthesis.

For six weeks leading into the draft, I compiled your votes for an AFC East reader mock that would be measured against ESPN experts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay.

We got crushed.

Mightily.

AFC East readers correctly predicted only three selections: Auburn quarterback Cam Newton first to the Carolina Panthers, Louisiana State cornerback Patrick Peterson fifth to the Arizona Cardinals and USC tackle Tyron Smith ninth to the Dallas Cowboys.

That's right. Shut out in the division.

Kiper delivered nine picks in the correct slots, although three of them went to wrong teams because of trades. McShay got eight slots right with two going to the wrong team.

Therefore, Kiper and McShay each had six bull's-eyes.

Procedural circumstances hurt the AFC East reader mock draft a little. We started back in March, choosing a player every weekday until we were done. Once a selection was made, it was locked in.

Kiper and McShay, meanwhile, had the ability to constantly tweak. At one point, each predicted Alabama running back Mark Ingram to the Miami Dolphins at No. 15 -- just like readers of the AFC East blog. But Kiper and McShay eventually switched to the winning pick, Florida center Mike Pouncey.

But the competition was so one-sided, I doubt tweaking would've helped much.

I came up with this scoring system to give credit for picks that were close and to account for trades:

• 5 points: bull's-eye (player and team)
• 4 points: player to right team/different slot or player in right slot/different team
• 3 points: player taken within one slot of projected pick
• 2 points: player taken within two slots of projected pick
• 1 point: player taken within three slots of projected pick

That gave the AFC East blog 26 points with three bull's-eyes, two players within a slot, two players within two slots and one player within three slots.

Of the 24 remaining guesses, six of them weren't taken in the first round at all. The good news is that Kiper and McShay also whiffed on four of the same ones: Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers, Arizona defensive end Brooks Reed, UCLA outside linebacker Akeem Ayers and Texas cornerback Aaron Williams.

Kiper racked up 48 points, powered by having the first six picks slotted correctly.

McShay accumulated 50 points with my system. He couldn't match Kiper's hot start, but caught him in the second half. McShay nailed the Cameron Heyward to the Pittsburgh Steelers with the 31st pick.

When considering the worst miss, AFC East blog readers had Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder going to the Buffalo Bills at No. 34 (we allowed two bonus predictions because AFC East teams had the first two picks of the second round). Ponder went 12th to the Minnesota Vikings. The 22-spot differential was the largest of any player in the three mocks.

Readers also failed to include Washington quarterback Jake Locker in the first round, and he went eighth overall to the Tennessee Titans.

Grading at the end of the draft is an odd exercise. Draftees haven’t suited up for so much as a photo. So the measure is against need and expectation, and need and expectation don’t tell us if a guy will play well.

Nevertheless, people will absolutely eat up Mel Kiper’s grades and he does break them into pieces for us.

Here’s what he has to say about the AFC South:

Indianapolis Colts

Top needs: OT, OG, DT, WR

Summary: The Colts started springing leaks on the offensive line in 2010, as Peyton Manning faced more pressure and the running game all but stalled. Bill Polian clearly had his priorities in order, adding immediate help on the offensive line with his first two picks. [Anthony] Castonzo isn't seen as a really high-ceiling tackle, but he's a very good one, always healthy and with good feet, making him a potential long-term solution on the blindside. [Ben] Ijalana can convert to guard and be effective. Indy also needed help on the defensive interior and got a pretty good value fit with [Drake] Nevis in the third round. [Chris] Rucker can be a pretty good player when he's focused on football. He has a chance to outplay that spot on the board.

Needs: A-

Value: B

Overall: B+

My thoughts: The first three look to be very nice fits and can have immediate impact. Running back Delone Carter and Rucker were a bit more curious and we’ll have to see.

Houston Texans

Top needs: S, OLB, WR, DL

Summary: It's the prospects who get the red carpet treatment here in New York, but it's Wade Phillips who got the carpet laid out for him in this draft. The new defensive coordinator for the Texans got a lot of new toys to work with, and I think Houston did a solid job in terms of value in addressing what was simply a bad defense in 2010. [J.J.] Watt is a versatile defensive end who will fit that 3-4 scheme and [Brooks] Reed is the outside rusher they needed. The Texans then went to the secondary, a disaster in 2010, adding [Brandon] Harris with a particularly good value pick, then [Rashad] Carmichael and [Shiloh] Keo. I would have liked to have seen another wide receiver in the mix, but I love the pick of [T.J.] Yates, who could be a good one if given time to develop. With Matt Schaub there, he should get plenty of clipboard time.

Needs: A-

Value: B-

Overall: B

My thoughts: This seems about right. I really like that they got Harris and I am anxious to see Keo. Phillips clearly had a big influence. I hope they still plan to do some free-agent shopping.

Tennessee Titans

Top needs: QB, OLB, DT, WR

Summary: Tennessee provided the first true shock of the draft. The Atlanta-Cleveland trade wasn't really a shock -- it was more about the compensation. But the Titans took the first major value shot that didn't involve the No. 1 pick. The story of this draft will be how they use [Jake] Locker. Will they have the patience not to rush him? Will he become more accurate in the NFL than he was in college? The guy has a remarkable skill-set, but productivity is the question. As a pick, you can say the value perhaps wasn't too poor because he wouldn't have lasted past No. 12, but even then he's still a bit of a project. All these quarterbacks taken early were reaches in terms of value, but those are the risks teams feel they need to take to find an answer. After Locker, I do like the [Akeem] Ayers pick. He has Round 1 tape and was taken at No. 39. [Jurrell] Casey is also a talented kid who needs to mature. Another wide receiver would have been nice, but so would an idea of who will be throwing the ball in 2011.

Needs: C+

Value: C-

Overall: C

My thoughts: Will Locker pan out? We don’t know, but he certainly fills a huge need. They couldn’t have drafted a veteran quarterback. Need-wise, I think they did pretty well.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Top needs: DE, QB, S, WR

Summary: Jacksonville got a quarterback at No. 10 I had rated as the No. 1 quarterback on my Big Board. Of course, I had [Blaine] Gabbert at No. 14 overall. Bottom line: this draft will be viewed through the prism of Gabbert and whether he succeeds. I think he has a shot but he needs time to develop, and after this draft I see a team that didn't really improve much in the near term, but believes it has its franchise quarterback of the future. [Will] Rackley is a nice player to plug in at guard when he's needed, and [Cecil] Shorts could be another find from Mount Union. But a clear need at defensive end wasn't addressed, and I thought that was a key. Last year the Jaguars addressed it in free agency, and hopefully that bandage will hold. A corner also could have been used.

Needs: C

Value: C-

Overall: C-

My thoughts: Our expectation was defensive end would be addressed and we know linebacker is a need. They say they will still add two to four players in free agency. If they fill needs that way, then this could be just fine and the need grade won't mean a lot.

Is Stephen Tulloch on his way out?

Titans fourth-round linebacker Colin McCarthy (out of Miami) knows of Tulloch. Though they have not met, they share agent Drew Rosenhaus.

Tulloch is the Titans' incumbent middle linebacker. He made a ton of tackles but hardly a big play last season, when he was part of the team’s inability to slow tight ends. He stayed away from the team last offseason, upset over not getting a long-term deal. He got tendered at a first-round level and won’ be unrestricted if we’re under 2010 rules. If a new deal is struck where four years of service qualifies a guy for unrestricted free agency, he will be able to test the market.

But he won’t be happy if that’s all he can get. He and the team see his value very differently.

And McCarthy is the second new linebacker for Tennessee, which took strongsider Akeem Ayers in the second round and is looking to get bigger. I’d say outside linebacker Gerald McRath is no longer a guaranteed starter either.

The Titans and McCarthy both said he can play inside or out.

With or without Tulloch, the team has got increased flexibility.