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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set, where they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense, and helps set Luck and the offense up with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

And should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

The crew debates if Cam Newton will have a sophomore slump, Mark Schlereth has the Colts should use Big Ben as the model for developing Andrew Luck, and who is the best offensive lineman in the NFL?

It would be better if Andrew Luck had a full offseason with the Colts. But missing time while he finishes up at Stanford isn't going to set his new team back as much as some people like to think.

His boss encouraged him to continue to find time to work out. So even in the most harried and stressful times in the frantic early stages of his tenure as the Colts' new general manager, Ryan Grigson periodically found his way to the team’s weight room.

“I lift weights a few times a week,” he said. “I should do more cardio. I feel like I got ran so hard as an athlete, if I don’t have to run I don’t want to. I like to lift hard.”

Forty-five hard minutes or an hour in the weight room take him way back, to early childhood memories.

“We had York weights in my basement. I was five years old and I’d see my dad down there with my uncles with their work boots on and cutoffs and tool belts, down there lifting. My brother is a big lifter. I just stick to basic movements that crush you real fast. It’s more work and less time. That’s all I can do here.

“The workout is the same every time: dips, pull-ups and bench press. I do it hard and I do it fast and I get out. It definitely clears your head. It’s good to get that blood flowing. Even early on [Colts owner] Jim Irsay would tell me, ‘Get in that weight room, get a workout.’ It gives you energy. When I was burning that midnight oil early on to the point it was ridiculous, when you had no time to sleep because you couldn’t turn your mind off, without those workouts, coffee and the support of my wife, I don’t know if I would have made it through.”

He had more to make it through than most first-time general managers.

Grigson took over a team that was about to part ways with an icon. He had no relationship with Peyton Manning, and Irsay was making the call. But as Grigson was introduced as the new GM, and later when he spoke to the press at the combine, he faced hard questions he couldn’t really answer. He sweated under the bright lights, and squirmed at least a little.

Nearly anyone would have.

Fast forward to last week’s draft.

He looked and sounded like a different guy, talking about his draft picks and the start of something, not the end.

“People have told me that, that I seem more relaxed,” he said. “When I am in the moment before, I’m still being me, maybe I just have my game face on, I don’t know. It sure is nice now to be able to talk about the guys we took and not have to sidestep anything.”

He’s not being cliché when he talks about going day-by-day, minute-by-minute, and even second-by-second. He spoke of being ultra-focused. When you are a laser beam like that, it’s believable when you talk of having no timetables for a return to prominence.

Before the draft, Irsay tweeted out a reminder of how long it took the Colts to win a playoff game after drafting Peyton Manning in 1998. (The Colts beat the Broncos and the Chiefs in the 2003 postseason.) Many analysts thought the plea for patience wasn’t something the owner needed to send out at that time.

But clearly, despite adding No. 1 pick Andrew Luck, the Colts need time. They cut or lost at least 10 of the 22 players who would have been opening day starters if the old regime stayed in place and kept its people. They are eating a giant amount of dead money against their 2012 salary cap to gain financial freedom in 2013.

When I said something about the need for patience being obvious, Grigson was pleased.

“That’s refreshing to hear you say that,” he said. “A lot of people seem to think that we can do that all at once. You have to have four drafts combined and 30 picks to get all the best players that you wanted. It’s not happening.

“There has to be an element of patience within the organization. That was a very key trait I saw in Mr. Irsay from day one. We have pillar guys who are helping us moving forward. But everyone knows no one is looking at us to do anything.”

The Colts couldn’t address every position of need in the draft and they have to reshape some of what remains. Indy will have to scheme around and deal with being weak at certain positions this year, like at cornerback.

“There are positions that scheme-wise, haven’t been as vital due to what they did,” Grigson said. “At specific positions we need different body types maybe, different types of athletes with different skill sets.”

During the initial minicamp and in offseason workouts, guys have picked things up, bought in and started learning nuances of the position that may be different. Players who will ultimately be gone may be asked to transform their game.

“They’re working, it’s nice to see guys really working,” Grigson said. “Coach [Chuck] Pagano and his staff have created an air of enthusiasm. We know we have a very long road to hoe and no one denies that. But we’re out there doing what we can control, and that’s to go full speed, to listen, to get in the playbook, to lift the weights, to condition, do all those things, the little things with high intensity.

“I look at it in a very simplistic view. I tell my kids if you hustle and work really hard, good things happen. If you cherry pick and just kind of loaf around, nothing’s ever going to fall in your lap. You’re not going to be that guy who gets a fumble recovery for a touchdown or a pick bounces off someone’s shoulder pads and lands in your hands. That usually happens to someone who’s flying around.”

His wife and five children have not joined him in Indianapolis yet, which gave him more leeway to put in the ridiculous hours he felt were necessary before the draft. His only respites were those weight room sessions, Sunday Mass and an occasional frozen pizza heated up and eaten while he watched the news or found a decent movie, preferably a comedy.

Otherwise, he was watching film, assessing issues, making decisions.

When I’ve asked people around the league about Grigson, they talk about him with respect. He’s regarded as a quality personnel man with the qualities needed to lead a front office and build a team. He inherited a tough situation with Manning’s departure, but he’s also incredibly fortunate to have Luck.

Grigson knows this rebuild is going to be hard and take time. He’s excited to get to another stage, where he can walk past the clicker in his office and not have it work like a magnet, pulling him back to watch more film. At this stage, player study no longer trumps everything else.

But even at this slower time, there is plenty pulling at him, plenty to do. He will soon add to his scouting staff. He’ll continue to work with Pagano, trying to maximize the coach’s chances of success. He’ll watch offseason practices, considering the tiny pictures and the big picture the tiny ones combine to create.

“It’s like I’m a rookie left tackle and every game I’m facing Michael Strahan, Bruce Smith, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis,” he said. “Hopefully in the end all these experiences that I’ve had will help me to be a better GM and a better football man.”

Hopefully, at least three times a week, he’ll find his way to that weight room, fall into his routine, and build up the sort of big sweat that clears his head, at least for a little while.

“As long as it keeps me from looking real bad,” Grigson said, “then I’ll keep doing it.”

Russell Wilson, the quarterback the Seattle Seahawks drafted in the third round Friday, probably lost millions of dollars when he stopped growing.

His height, measured by NFL scouting combine officials at 5-foot-10 and five-eighths of an inch, doesn't measure up to long-established league standards. That is why the Seahawks were able to draft the Wisconsin quarterback with only the 75th overall choice even though Wilson appears dynamic by other measures, including his arm, athleticism and leadership.

ESPN's Herm Edwards liked the selection and explains why in the video above.

History discounts the chances for a shorter quarterback. Wilson is not small, however. He had the fourth-largest hands of any quarterback at the combine: 10 1/4 inches, tied with defensive lineman Quinton Coples, guard Kevin Zeitler and 21 others for the 24th-biggest hands at the combine.

Brock Osweiler, the tallest combine quarterback at 6-foot-7, had smaller hands than Wilson. Ryan Tannehill, drafted eighth overall, had substantially smaller hands: 9 inches, tied with Yale's Patrick Witt for smallest at the combine.

Wilson, who finished second to Robert Griffin III among combine quarterbacks with a 4.55-second time in the 40-yard dash, did have the third-shortest arm length for any quarterback at the combine. Nick Foles, Osweiler and Andrew Luck ranked among the top five. The difference between Luck's arm length (32 5/8 inches) and that of Wilson (31) means what, exactly? I'm not sure.

Some of these measurement differentials might not mean much. Height would matter more to teams as they assess whether a quarterback can see the field well enough from inside the pocket. Edwards' feeling is that Wilson should be a good backup, with a chance to become more.

CLEVELAND -- I'm headed back to AFC North headquarters after three long (but exciting) days here for the NFL draft. I'm hoping to return soon to see the start of a new Browns' offense with running back Trent Richardson and quarterback Brandon Weeden. The plan is to recharge the batteries today and come back Monday with tons of blogs filled with opinions and analysis.

Here are some of my impressions from the Browns' press conference with team president Mike Holmgren that wrapped up the draft:

• [+] Enlarge
  AP Photo/Amy SancettaMike Holmgren said he had a conversation with the Colts about trading for the No. 1 pick. "It wasn't very long," he said.
  Perhaps the biggest shock came when Holmgren said he spoke to the Indianapolis Colts about trading up to the No. 1 spot to draft Andrew Luck. Asked how long the conversation went with Indianapolis regarding the top pick, Holmgren said with a smile, “Probably about five minutes. Actually I had two conversations. I had a conversation with Mr. [Jim] Irsay and also with their new general manager. I believe I was in the swimming pool at the owners meetings and I had a drink in my hand, on the second one. It wasn’t very long.”

• Judging by Holmgren's comments, the Browns either thought about taking Weeden in the second round or considered trading back in the first round to take him. They ultimately drafted Weeden with the 22nd overall pick because they didn't want to risk losing him. "You got a little taste of it when he was in here of how he’s different than all the other quarterbacks that were drafted ahead of him or behind him is that his age and his maturity and what he brings immediately to the table," Holmgren said. "Now, you couple that with his skill level, which is pretty obvious on film and he has the potential I think to play well sooner because of that than other quarterbacks in the draft so he became very attractive to us."

• I get the feeling that Holmgren wants to keep Colt McCoy as the backup to Weeden. He doesn't think it would be difficult for McCoy to adjust to that role because he "is a special young man." Holmgren added, "Of course he wants to play, they all want to play. Again, nothing has been done yet, we don’t know how it is going to sort itself out. But, if that were to be the case, at some point, I think we have the best chance of making that work because of who the people are."

• Holmgren said he wouldn't be concerned about players choosing sides if McCoy remained. "Usually it's a problem if the players themselves kind of lead the charge on that," he said. "If I'm any judge at all about these young guys, that won't happen."

• Holmgren believes Richardson will be a better all-around running back than Shaun Alexander, who played under Holmgren with the Seattle Seahawks. "I love Shaun, if I could adopt Shaun I would, but he wouldn’t block anybody, nobody and I still love him," Holmgren said "The difference is Trent is an excellent pass receiver, not just a willing blocker but a very, very good blocker so when Pat’s calling the game and we’re running our offense you don’t have to be thinking, ‘Okay now how do we protect him in the passing game?’ You don’t have to do that so that’s different. But, again I have great affection for Shaun Alexander and what he did for Seattle and what he did for me. This young man, different player, and there is no reason he can’t do the same for us here.”

• Holmgren acknowledged the challenge of winning with a rookie quarterback in the NFL. "I don’t think it is easy, it is never easy," he said. "You look historically in the league. I always say, the only guy that shot lights out early was (Dan) Marino. Some of you may know someone else because you are a lot older than I am. But, I think Marino was the guy that sticks out because you talk to John Elway, Joe Montana, the guys I know, they all had these little growing pains."

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South


Despite talk of grabbing the best player available, it’s funny how often needs and picks seem to line up.

Of 31 picks, I count four that don’t technically qualify as addressing needs: Jaguars fifth-round linebacker Brandon Marshall, Titans fifth-round tight end Taylor Thompson, Jaguars sixth-round cornerback Mike Harris and Colts seventh-round quarterback Chandler Harnish.

We saw the Texans replenish at outside linebacker, on the offensive line and at kicker and add to their options at receiver. The Colts loaded up on help for No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck -- seven of their other nine picks bring offensive players to Indianapolis . Jacksonville addressed its big needs right out of the chute, then made a couple of odd selections. Tennessee didn’t take two players at the same position.

BEST MOVE

The Jaguars came into the offseason in dire need of upgraded weaponry for Blaine Gabbert. They started last season with wide receiver Jason Hill as a starter, and he was cut before the season ended. Mike Thomas was miscast as a top-of-the-group guy when he should be a No. 3. Cecil Shorts showed he needs a lot of time to develop.

Mike Mularkey hired a solid receiver coach, Jerry Sullivan. He’s a tremendous upgrade from Johnny Cox, who was quickly fired after Jack Del Rio was dismissed during the 2011 season. Free agency brought Laurent Robinson, who should help, and Lee Evans, who’d be gravy if he can revive his career.

The Jaguars successfully sold pundits on the idea they’d be trading down, then only gave up a fourth-rounder to move up from No. 7 to No. 5 to draft Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon. He’s a dynamic receiver who can catch balls outside his frame and cause matchup problems.

Outside of Luck, no team in the division got a player who can cure an ill better than Blackmon can fix what ails the Jacksonville offense. Now it’s on Gabbert to show he can effectively get the ball to the new star receiver.

RISKIEST MOVE

The Titans didn’t touch a defensive end until Scott Solomon in the seventh round, and they didn’t add an offensive lineman at all. And pass rush and run blocking were two areas that qualified as weaknesses at the end of last season.

Tennessee hosted Scott Wells, Chris Myers, Jeff Saturday and Dan Koppen and saw all four sign elsewhere. On Saturday, coach Mike Munchak made those meetings sound like information-gathering get-togethers rather than courtships, a stance that’s pretty insulting to veterans who wouldn’t waste time making visits without the possibility of a contract.

The defense of incumbent starters on the interior -- Eugene Amano and Leroy Harris -- has entered a new round now. Munchak said the team felt no “dire need there” and that “we have guys we can win with.” Still, watch for a key undrafted addition or free agent or two.

The Titans added one big piece this offseason to its insufficient pass rush in the form of free-agent end Kamerion Wimbley, who was a cap casualty in Oakland. He may provide a big boost but also probably shouldn’t be on the field for every play. Tennessee’s only attempt to bolster itself on the edges came with the 211th pick, end Scott Solomon from Rice.

The Titans face a pretty good slate of quarterbacks this season. Those passers may have a lot of time to throw.

MOST SURPRISING PICK

We hit it hard Saturday night, but the Jaguars' selection of Bryan Anger in the third round was a baffler. Yes, the team will benefit from a big leg and stands to gain field position.

But Jacksonville overrated special teams’ impact by deciding to draft Anger so early rather than addressing other needs where it could have selected a player with a chance to play.

The Jaguars have a recent history of messing up at the position, and teams that struggle with stability at a spot are prone to overreach in an effort to correct it.

I believe that’s a good piece of what happened here. They could have gotten him or a punter who still would have been a big upgrade later.

The Jaguars found Terrance Knighton, Derek Cox and Will Rackley in the third round in Gene Smith’s previous three drafts. They are all starters who affect games more than a punter can.

They can rationalize this pick. And we can stridently disagree.

FILE IT AWAY

Six receivers came into the division -- Blackmon, Kendall Wright in Tennessee, T.Y. Hilton and LaVon Brazill in Indianapolis and DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin in Houston. That’s two first-rounders, two third-rounders, a fourth-rounder and a sixth-rounder.

The countermeasures?

Just two incoming cornerbacks -- Titans fourth-rounder Coty Sensabaugh and Jaguars sixth-rounder Harris.

Secondary depth could be severely tested by good quarterbacks and receivers, especially when the division faces the NFC North and the high-powered passing offenses of Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago.

The Colts have no proven corners beyond Jerraud Powers. The Texans lost Jason Allen, who played a reasonable amount. The Titans need to unearth a new nickelback now that Cortland Finnegan is gone. Only the Jaguars have fortified the spot, adding two-time Super Bowl winner Aaron Ross, presumably getting Cox and Rashean Mathis back healthy and drafting Harris.

The AFC South is a big running back division, but it’s become more equipped to sling it and may not have the people needed to cover offenses with a lot of downfield weapons.

“It tells you that this is a wide-open league, the offensive focus is on scoring points probably more than ever,” Titans general manager Ruston Webster said. “It’s becoming more of a quarterback-wide receiver league probably every day.”

The big draft review file will arrive shortly, but a few quick thoughts in the meantime:

Houston Texans

Three offensive linemen should help the team sort through options at right guard and right tackle. Antoine Caldwell and Rashad Butler are the guys moving up the depth chart, but now their challengers will include Brandon Brooks and Ben Jones at guard and Nick Mondek at tackle.

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck will come in at the head of a class that also includes two tight ends, two receivers, a running back and an offensive tackle. That change to a 3-4 defense will be in hybrid mode a lot in its first season, as only defensive tackle Josh Chapman and defensive end/outside linebacker Tim Fugger arrived to help. The Colts still get the draft’s final pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars stayed with big school guys most of the way. Their first five selections came from Oklahoma State, Clemson, Cal, Nevada and Florida State. But Gene Smith got his small school guy in the seventh round, with defensive tackle Jeris Pendleton from Ashland.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans didn’t have a pass rusher and were out of picks, but traded a sixth rounder in 2013 to Minnesota in order to select Rice defensive end Scott Solomon. The team sees a relentless pass rusher who fits in their mix and thought it could afford to sacrifice a sixth next year since it expects a compensatory pick or two.

Indianapolis used its third round pick, 64th, on Clemson tight end Dwayne Allen, a guy who’s more of a blocker than Coby Fleener, their second-round pick.

“The offense calls for two tight ends who are dynamic and can do different things,” said Allen, sharing what he learned in a phone conversation with offensive coordinator Bruce Arians.

On back-to-back tight ends, GM Ryan Grigson said: “It’s nice when your board lines up with your needs. It worked out real well. We secured two great football players that were just staring us right in the face.”

The Colts traded to get a another third-round pick, 92nd overall, giving No. 97 in the fourth round and a fifth next year. They used the pick on Florida International receiver and returner T.Y. Hilton.

I’ve seen some impressive highlights that show a smooth, incredibly fast player.

“Teams got to be ready for me because I’m a blazer,” he told us on a conference call. “…Me and (Andrew) Luck are going to do just fine.”

The Colts have added three skill guys for Luck. I may have said it before, but I really mean it now: It’s now time to get to work on the defense.

Any questions about how much Broncos executive VP John Elway values classic strong-armed quarterbacks?

In a yet another statement of his anti-Tim Tebow approach to the position, Elway made his second big quarterback splash in a month by taking intriguing Arizona State prospect Brock Osweiler with the No. 57 overall pick.

Bypassing more pressing needs, Elway made this pick with the most important position on the field in mind -- beginning roughly in the 2015 season. It’s clear Elway wants to go to bed at night without having to worry about who his quarterback is going to be for the next dozen years and he clearly wants to distance himself from the option days of Tebow, which Elway tolerated only until he found a special solution.

Of course, the immediate future at quarterback is Peyton Manning. After electing to continue his career with the Broncos, Manning signed a five-year deal with Denver four days before his 36th birthday last month. By all indications, Manning is healthy and he should be able to give Denver at least three good years.

The 6-foot-7 Osweiler is now in line to be Manning’s successor. The Broncos see something special in Osweiler. They didn’t need to take a quarterback this year or next year. But they see a raw specimen in Osweiler.

The knock on him is he is a bit green. So what better team for him to end up with than the Broncos? ESPN analyst Todd McShay has said on multiple occasions that Denver is the perfect spot for Osweiler.

He can watch and learn from Manning without any pressure. Osweiler -- who said one of his closest friends is Elway’s son, Jack, a former Arizona State player -- realizes the great opportunity he is getting.

“I could not be any more excited to be going to Denver to learn from Peyton Manning,” Osweiler told reporters Friday night. “A lot of quarterbacks might be upset about having to sit behind somebody, whereas I look at it as a tremendous opportunity to learn from one of the best, if not the best, quarterback to ever play the game.”

If Osweiler can’t parlay his time with two of the greatest all-time quarterbacks into NFL success, then that’s his fault. And if Osweiler is a flop, the Broncos will know it before he needs to take over for Manning from extensive practice and preseason play. Thus, the Broncos will have the opportunity to find another replacement for Manning if necessary.

Sure, this is a luxury pick and Denver could have benefited from a receiver or a running back at the No. 57 spot. (They traded up to take San Diego State running back Ronnie Hillman in the third round.) But if this is a guy the Broncos think can be special, why not take him?

Like all 2012 quarterback prospects not named Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III, Osweiler was deeply dissected and opinions varied on him. Some scouts thought he deserved to be a first-round pick, while others thought he should be taken in the fourth round.

The Broncos long have followed Osweiler. Their pursuit of him heightened after Manning signed. I think he moved up Denver’s draft board based on the combination of Osweiler being a similar type of quarterback as Manning and the fact that he can be groomed for years.

Had Manning not signed, I don’t think Osweiler would have been the pick. Had Manning gone elsewhere, I am convinced Denver would have traded up from No. 25 to take Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden and make him an instant starter. Weeden went to Cleveland at No. 22 and he is expected to start.

Osweiler, like Weeden, can drop jaws with the long pass. In fact, ESPN’s Chris Mortensen wrote that many scouts think Osweiler can make every throw. While McShay and others are high on the former basketball player, ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. worries about Osweiler’s accuracy and Kiper doesn’t think Osweiler plays with the command of a player his size. However, fellow ESPN analyst Jon Gruden likes Osweiler and likes the fit in Denver.

“He can cut it loose … he is a pocket passer and he moves around better than people think,” Gruden said. “It’s a good pick by Elway.”

There is no doubt that this was an Elway pick. After enduring a forced relationship with Tebow, Elway has made sure he is now equipped with his type of passers for the present and the future.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Stanford’s academic quarter doesn’t end until June 7.

NFL rules say college players can’t bolt school to join their NFL team after they are drafted until their school is finished. So while Andrew Luck will return to Indianapolis for a rookie minicamp Friday, Saturday and Sunday, he will then disappear until June 8.

“The rule was made for a reason -- encouraging guys to finish up and stay in school,” Luck said during his introduction at Lucas Oil Stadium Friday evening. “Obviously in that situation I wish I could be out here starting with the guys tomorrow working out. But that’s the rule, I’m not going to complain about it.

"It’s the cards we were dealt, so put your best foot forward. I know it’s terribly cliché. But you’re going to find ways, within the rules, for learning your playbook, maybe to try to get together with the guys somehow outside the facility. It’ll be a bump in the road but it’ll have to be overcome.”

Colts owner Jim Irsay said he would facilitate any creative get-togethers for Luck and his receivers with his plane or however possible.

Luck knew that Peyton Manning had traveled to Columbus to work with Anthony Gonzalez when the first-round receiver faced similar restraints.

“We’ll try to be very creative,” Luck said. “I got a couple texts from Reggie (Wayne) about trying to organize some things.”

Tight end Coby Fleener, the Colts' second-round pick, is a classmate and close friend of Luck’s. He said the two could work out together as soon as Saturday if Fleener makes it back to campus in time.

INDIANAPOLIS -- At an appearance at Lucas Oil Stadium this evening, Andrew Luck said people smarter than him would be deciding on whether Coby Fleener was the guy for the Colts at No. 34.

Those people, led by general manager Ryan Grigson, decided Luck’s Stanford teammate was, in fact, the right guy.

Fleener is the team’s second-round pick, and will be a prime target for Luck just as he was in college.

The Colts have a couple dependable receivers in Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie. Beyond that, they’ve got a reclamation project in Donnie Avery and a tight end who’s more a blocker than a receiver in Brody Eldridge.

Fleener is a giant get and fits perfectly with the idea of surrounding Luck with weapons who will maximize his chances at success.

I wasn’t alone in being surprised he made it out of the first round.

Now I expect the Colts will start to look for defenders as they have major holes at cornerback, defensive tackle and linebacker.

You need to visit ESPN’s DraftTracker, which has a thorough written and video review of Round 1, and the list of the picks to come.

Here’s a sampling:

Andrew Luck, Colts quarterback:

“How he fits: This appears to be a perfect fit of a quarterback's skill set with the Colts' new offensive philosophy. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will run a Pittsburgh-style scheme with a lot of bunch formations and movement and some no-huddle. Luck will have a lot of freedom to audible at the line of scrimmage. They want to be a much more run-oriented offense which could set up good play action, which is Luck's strength. This is a perfect offense for him, it's just a shame he won't have a better supporting cast in the beginning.”

Justin Blackmon, Jaguars receiver:

“How he fits: This was the worst pass offense in the NFL a year ago. Of course, part of the problem was QB Blaine Gabbert, however, it has been the worst receiving corps in the NFL for the past few years. The Jaguars did sign free agent Laurent Robinson from Dallas and Mike Thomas has a chance to be OK, but now they have a difference-maker and a guy who can stretch the field. All of a sudden, this pathetic passing game now has a three-wide receiver set and a nickel package that can actually threaten some defenses. This has been a short, conservative passing game in the past because they had no choice. Now, they can air it out with Blackmon or they can let him take those short to intermediate passes where he can run after the catch.”

Kendall Wright, Titans receiver:

“How he fits: This position has a chance to really improve if the Titans hit on Wright. Kenny Britt is an explosive playmaker, but he's coming off an knee injury that kept him out of the lineup in 2011, and Nate Washington is coming off a career year, but can he repeat it? If both guys play up to form in 2012, Wright could be the perfect slot receiver inside to take advantage of his quickness, and that would give the Titans a really good three-wide receiver package. Although, this offense was very vanilla in 2011, with a more complete passing game, they could really open things up. You could see Wright really flourish with yards after the catch inside.”

Whitney Mercilus, Texans outside linebacker:

“How he fits: He makes an already productive defensive front even better. Even though the Texans lost their best defensive player in Mario Williams in free agency, they got unexpected production from OLBs Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed. In this 3-4 defense that loves to attack and blitz from all directions with a lot of slants and one-gap penetrating schemes, Mercilus fits nicely as a rotation edge rusher in the 3-4 and possibly a guy who can play DE in 3-4 subpackages.”

INDIANAPOLIS -- Ryan Grigson's film study of Andrew Luck took him beyond reads and recognition, mechanics and throws.

“You’re talking about a guy who, when there is a busted play or he throws an interception, he runs down and hits like a linebacker,” the Colts general manager said. “On a trick play, he shows the ball skills of an elite receiver.”

Those are nice clips from Stanford, for sure, and they reveal much about the Indianapolis Colts new quarterback.

But with Luck officially their man, Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano have effectively taken a pledge to add people and craft a scheme to maximize his chances at success -- and not when he turns into a defender or a receiver. If the Colts' new regime stays true to that obligation, it shouldn’t be long before Luck is doing what top NFL quarterbacks do -- completing passes in critical situations and leading his team to wins and playoff appearances.

It’s a familiar storyline for sure. It's the same oath the franchise took with Peyton Manning in 1998.

“I think this thing happened 14 years ago,” Pagano said. “I think it’s all happening again, right before our eyes.”

Pagano went on to rattle off a list of qualities everybody wants in his quarterback and top players: football IQ, character, integrity, work ethic, good family background, worldliness, humility, leadership, passion and competitiveness.

“When you look at clean players across the board, when you talk about height, weight, speed, intelligence -- A to Z, if you want to label him a nine or 10 in everyone of those categories, you probably can,” Pagano said.

The Colts are not slated to pick again until 34th, the second pick of the second round Friday night.

A chorus of analysts say they are duty-bound to add someone who can help Luck, despite the pull Pagano, a former defensive coordinator, may feel for a defender. My opinion is they don’t absolutely have to go offense the next time they are on the clock, but in this draft and until the roster is filled out, they should lean that direction more often than not.

Grigson emphasized “this is a team” and that the Colts will do things with a team mindset, acquiring good players, regardless of position.

But, he also admitted the obvious.

“Of course you want to protect him the best you can, you want to put players around him that are going to make him comfortable, you want to do things to help facilitate him being great,” Grigson said.

Pagano has emphasized running the ball well and stopping the run, elements that are typically regarded as providing aide to a young quarterback, but elements too that have become less and less important to Super Bowl-winning teams in the modern NFL.

“You’ve got to protect the kid, you’ve got to put enough pieces and enough playmakers around him,” Pagano said. “… You can add a piece here and you can add a piece there to make sure that everything doesn’t rely on Andrew making plays with his arm and running around making plays with his feet outside the pocket and extending plays and things like that. We’ve got to play great defense too, I’m not going to slight that.”

The Colts want to protect Luck with good blocking, but are also conscious they will have to protect him from himself as he looks to inherit Manning’s mantle, revive a franchise coming off a horrific year that prompted monumental changes, and give the city a new sporting face.

“He’s going to be eager to come in here and think that he’s got to carry this whole thing on his shoulders,” Pagano said. “And that’s the first thing we’re going to tell him. He doesn’t have to do that. He’s just got to do what he does and that’s play quarterback. And he plays it really well.”

As good as he is coming into the league, Luck is not a finished product. What great collegian is?

Pagano hired Bruce Arians as his offensive coordinator because he effectively helped shape Manning here early on as well.

The new quarterback will arrive in town Friday knowing he’s got plenty he can work on as he evolves into a professional. Play calling can be a big help to him as well, Pagano said.

I wrote earlier of traits Luck has that date back to high school, and how they can be contagious for a rebuilding franchise. He said he doesn’t know if his long-time ability to compartmentalize will be needed more or less as he becomes a full-time football player. It’s just another of the many things he will learn in the months and years ahead.

For right now, Luck said the most exciting part of things is becoming part of a new locker room and getting to “meet the guys.” It was a Manning-esque comment, deflecting focus, aiming to share it.

Luck said it’ll be an honor to throw to Reggie Wayne, whom he called a future Hall of Famer, as well as Austin Collie and Donnie Avery. He said it will be big to be able to learn leadership qualities from Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

And he seemed thrilled to hear Grigson and Pagano talk about how they’ll surround him.

“It’s exciting to be part of a team where they are saying that they need playmakers and all of that,” he said. “I’m looking forward to it. … You don’t want to get too ahead of yourself. You have to realize you have to go through a whole process leading up to a game through a season.

“That being said, I do have high expectations for myself. And I’ll try to do the best I can. I know it’s cliché, but I’ll try to live up to my own expectations and fit in with all the guys and then do the best we can.”