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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Cardinals in 2012:

Dream scenario (11-5): A full offseason of healing and playbook study lets Kevin Kolb prove the Cardinals knew what they were doing when they acquired him from Philadelphia last offseason. There's plenty of credit to go around. The team's decision to reassign assistant coach John McNulty from receivers to quarterbacks becomes a popular storyline. There's no doubt Kolb's mechanics have improved, but talent and good health are what win football games.

Michael Floyd's addition through the draft makes the Cardinals' passing game nearly impossible to defend, particularly with second-year back Ryan Williams emerging as the game-breaking runner Arizona was convinced it had drafted. Adding young linemen for Russ Grimm to develop also pays off, particularly as the season progresses. Bobby Massie looks like a keeper at right tackle. On the other side, Levi Brown picks up where he left off last season, proving Arizona was right in re-signing him to a five-year contract.

The transformation on defense surprises even the Cardinals. Yes, Arizona made strides on that side of the ball while winning seven of its final nine games in 2011. But there was no way anyone could have expected Sam Acho to challenge Simeon Rice's season franchise record for sacks since 1982 (Rice had 16.5 in 1999). With a healthy Dan Williams at nose tackle and Acho pumping up an already underrated pass rush, cornerback Patrick Peterson takes the next logical step in his development: picking off passes and returning them for touchdowns.

Winning at San Francisco in Week 17 delivers an 11-5 record and the NFC West title to Arizona, the team's third division crown in five years.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): No one can blame Gregg Williams or Jonathan Vilma for the concussion Kolb suffers in the Hall of Fame Game against New Orleans to open the exhibition season. Some in the Cardinals' organization welcome the switch to John Skelton, but with Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells predictably battling knee problems, the offense becomes one-dimensional. That's tough for a team with Brown and a rookie starting at tackle. Kolb's return after a few weeks means as much as it did last season -- nothing.

By October, it's clear the Cardinals didn't do enough at tackle or outside linebacker to take the next step. Those offseason stories about a full offseason helping Kolb seemed justified at the time, but we should have known better. McNulty's coaching helps, but players revert to form under pressure and Kolb is no exception. He wasn't going to develop instincts all of a sudden, was he? Aldon Smith's three-sack game against Arizona on Monday night in Week 8 doesn't seem so bad when Clay Matthews collects four of them the following week.

For the second time in three seasons, the Cards finish 5-11 after getting blown out at San Francisco in Week 17. The quarterback questions persisting upon Kurt Warner's retirement continue to linger. Watching Peyton Manning in the playoffs doesn't help.

OK, I'll admit to being hooked on the blow-by-blow Twitter coverage from NFC West organized team activities.

Beanie Wells' injury absence from the Arizona Cardinals' practice field came as no shock, but an absence of details did invite ominous thoughts.

Had the Cardinals' 1,000-yard rusher undergone a serious procedure calling into question his long-term availability? His agent, Sean Howard, offered comfort for Cardinals fans when reached Tuesday. Howard described the surgery as "a clean-out procedure" and said Wells did not undergo microfracture surgery or any other procedure requiring an extended recovery period.

The goal is for Wells to be ready for a full 16-game season and more, if necessary. As a result, Wells likely will not practice during OTAs.

"He's in shape and looks good," Howard said. "The doctors and the Cardinals have decided to play it safe. Rather than rush him back, the consensus opinion was to let him heal."

The NFL trend toward a state of (pass) happiness has not swept over the NFC West.

Go ahead and blame the quarterbacks, but realize, too, that the St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers have sought run-oriented identities through their current head coaches.



The Rams' decision to draft defensive tackle Michael Brockers in the first round, understandable based on need alone, makes even more sense in a divisional context. The NFC West schedule delivers the Rams six games against Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore and Beanie Wells -- three physical backs coming off 1,000-yard seasons. The 49ers also added 260-pound Brandon Jacobs to their backfield.

The Rams ranked 31st in rushing yards allowed last season. They allowed 5.7 yards per carry on runs up the middle, including 3.2 before contact. Those figures were worst in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Brockers is 6-foot-5 and 322 pounds. Scouts Inc. rated him as exceptional or above average in every area except pass-rush ability, where his grade was average. Brockers' grades were exceptional for run defense and durability.

"He's what you want in a defensive tackle, especially in our division with the downhill runs and things like that," Rams general manager Les Snead told reporters Thursday night. "One person I know that’s smiling right now is (middle linebacker) James Laurinaitis."

» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Arizona Cardinals

Key free agents: DE Calais Campbell (franchise tag), CB Richard Marshall, OLB Clark Haggans, WR Early Doucet, T Brandon Keith, G Deuce Lutui, K Jay Feely.

Where they stand: A strong finish to the 2011 season on defense gives the Cardinals a glass-half-full feel heading into free agency. Going from 1-6 to 8-8 was an impressive achievement. Arizona does have serious concerns on its offensive line. The situation at tackle is particularly questionable even if Levi Brown returns (and maybe especially if he returns, depending on your view). The line concerns might actually dissipate some if the team lands Peyton Manning, a quarterback with the ability to beat pressure with quick throws. But tackle is still an area that needs addressing for the long term. Injuries throughout the offensive backfield raise questions about that area as well. Kevin Kolb (concussion), Beanie Wells (knee), Ryan Williams (knee) and Anthony Sherman (ankle) missed extensive time or played at a diminished level for stretches.

What to expect: The Cardinals are one of the teams chasing Manning. That pursuit could consume them for the short term. Landing Manning would signal the end for Kolb in Arizona. The Cardinals have until March 17 to exercise a $7 million option on Kolb, the quarterback they acquired from Philadelphia for cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a fat contract. I'm expecting a resolution to Manning's situation before the Kolb bonus comes due simply because interest in Manning should be high enough to accelerate the process. The Cardinals had about $3 million in salary-cap space entering the week, according to ESPN's John Clayton. That figure could increase substantially once the team releases Brown or reworks his contract. Arizona still has strong coaching ties to Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball, but it's an upset if the Cardinals seriously pursue any of the aging veterans recently released by the Steelers. Developing young talent is the priority now. Re-signing Marshall, who fared well at corner, should be a priority. Does free-agent linebacker Stewart Bradley still factor prominently into the team's plans, particularly at such a high price?

St. Louis Rams

Key free agents: WR Brandon Lloyd, G Jacob Bell, CB Justin King, OL Adam Goldberg, LB Chris Chamberlain, G Tony Wragge, TE Billy Bajema, WR Mark Clayton, DT Gary Gibson, P Donnie Jones.

Where they stand: The Rams have no interest in staying the course from a personnel standpoint after going 15-65 over the past five seasons. They will seek fresh talent almost across the board as Jeff Fisher's new coaching staff seeks players for its schemes. The Rams are seeking playmakers in particular, starting at wide receiver. The offensive line needs addressing, although the Rams might try to minimize the turnover at offensive tackle for the short term, figuring they cannot afford to create new needs. But former starting center Jason Brown, benched last season, appears unlikely to return. The team also needs two starting outside linebackers, starting defensive tackles and perhaps two starting cornerbacks on defense.

What to expect: Mass roster turnover. I could see the team retaining as few as one or two players from its list of 21 projected unrestricted free agents. The Rams have a disproportionate amount of their salary cap tied up in recent high draft choices Sam Bradford, Chris Long and Jason Smith. The rookie wage scale will provide them cap relief even if the team remains among the teams picking very high in the 2012 draft. Bradford and Long are cornerstones. Smith could stick around at a reduced rate. The team still has hope for him under new offensive line coach Paul Boudreau. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan and defensive lineman Jason Jones, both free agents from Tennessee, have ties to Fisher and could make sense for the Rams. Despite the need for playmakers on offense, the Rams did not use the franchise tag on Lloyd, their most talented receiver. Questions persist about how effective Lloyd might be outside Josh McDaniels' offense.

San Francisco 49ers

Key free agents: QB Alex Smith, CB Carlos Rogers, FS Dashon Goldson (franchise tag), G Adam Snyder, WR Ted Ginn Jr., WR Josh Morgan, G Chilo Rachal, FB Moran Norris, LB Blake Costanzo.

Where they stand: Coach Jim Harbaugh has said it's a bit unsettling heading through the offseason with his starting quarterback unsigned. Smith and the 49ers are expected to reach agreement eventually. This relationship will almost certainly continue even if Smith does reach free agency without a deal in place. Smith would not fit nearly as well anywhere else. Harbaugh likes to use the word "equity" when describing players he wants to keep. The 49ers would rather bring back Smith than invite the disruption that Manning would bring, were they able to land him. The team needs help at wide receiver and possibly cornerback, depending upon what happens with Rogers. Getting Goldson at the relatively reasonable franchise rate ($6.2 million) was a plus for the 49ers' continuity in the secondary.

What to expect: Not a whole lot, most likely. The 49ers were a good team last season after taking a low-keyed approach to the free-agent market. They will presumably show interest in Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace and any high-profile, productive receiver with the talent to upgrade their offense. It's a small upset if the 49ers land one of them, however, because their philosophy is built on a measured approach resistant to overpaying. They will have to address the receiver position in free agency one way or another, however. Re-signing Morgan would help. Pierre Garcon, Marques Colston, Mario Manningham, Plaxico Burress and Robert Meachem are among the other options in free agency. An upgrade at right guard would help the line, but the 49ers might be apt to develop 2011 draft choice Daniel Kilgore after investing first-round choices in their left tackle (Joe Staley), left guard (Mike Iupati) and right tackle (Anthony Davis).

Seattle Seahawks

Key free agents: DE Red Bryant, LB David Hawthorne, LB Leroy Hill, OL Paul McQuistan, DE Raheem Brock, DL Tony Hargrove, FB Michael Robinson, RB Justin Forsett, QB Charlie Whitehurst, LB Matt McCoy, TE John Carlson, LB Heath Farwell.

Where they stand: The Seahawks' long-term quarterback situation hangs over them as they head toward the 2012 draft with only the 12th overall choice. The team has built up the rest of its roster to a point where sticking with Tarvaris Jackson as the primary starter could hold back the team to a degree it did not through much of last season. Upgrading the pass rush is another priority for the Seahawks. With defensive end Raheem Brock publicly stumping for Seattle to land Manning, his former teammate, I couldn't help but wonder which one of them had a better shot at earning a roster spot with the team in 2012. It might be Manning, even if the Seahawks are relative long shots for his services. Brock failed to provide the pass-rush push Seattle needed opposite Chris Clemons. Linebacker is another position the Seahawks need to address, whether or not Hawthorne and Hill return.

What to expect: The Seahawks have roughly $30 million in cap space, according to Clayton, and will make every effort to land Manning. They feel they've got a shot as long as they can persuade him to get on a plane and check out what they have to offer in terms of the roster, coaching, facilities, ownership and more. If Manning goes elsewhere, I would expect the Seahawks to consider Green Bay quarterback Matt Flynn. Securing him at a price lower than what Arizona paid for Kolb would be the goal. As badly as the Seahawks want to upgrade the position, they have said they will not panic. Overpaying for Flynn could represent panic in their eyes. On the pass-rush front, I'm increasingly skeptical the team will shell out for Mario Williams. The price could be too high for a player Houston has decided to let hit the market. Re-signing Bryant is a priority, but using the franchise tag for him was never an option given the $10.6 million price. A deal slightly north of the one teammate Brandon Mebane signed seems likelier if Bryant returns.

The injury Ryan Williams suffered during his second NFL exhibition game was relatively unusual for football players.

"My kneecap was in my thigh," the Arizona Cardinals' running back said during a team-produced video on his rehabilitation. "It was just kind of like, 'What?' "

A torn patella tendon ended Williams' rookie season before it officially began.

The running back expects to return for training camp and the 2012 regular season. Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham returned from similar injuries, but each situation is different. The Cardinals cannot know how the knee will respond. No one can.

Cadillac Williams returned, only to injure his other knee. Suffering a second injury so quickly complicated comparisons to other running backs returning from a single torn patella.

Ryan Williams is not yet even 22 years old, however.

"He has youth on his side, for sure," ESPN injury expert Stephania Bell said Thursday. "What you worry about is, it takes a lot to get any kind of explosiveness or power back. You're not talking about strength, but quickness."

Williams, a second-round choice from Virginia Tech, impressed the Cardinals with his ability to change directions without losing much speed.

"It is reasonable he could be back when the season starts," Bell said, "but will he really be back? That is going to remain to be seen and like these guys coming off ACL surgeries, it may take a while to see what his max is that he can return to."

The Cardinals need Williams in part because their primary back, Beanie Wells, has struggled with injuries, fighting through knee trouble last season after undergoing surgery.

Four additional injury situations to monitor, one per NFC West team, as the offseason continues:

• Arizona: Kevin Kolb, quarterback. Concussion problems have sidelined Kolb each of the past two seasons. Symptoms lingered last season. Quarterbacks are going to take hits unexpectedly, sometimes to the head. Can Kolb stay on the field?
• Seattle: Sidney Rice, receiver. Rice has undergone surgery on each shoulder. One surgery repaired damage suffered during training camp. The other repaired damage incurred during college. The hope is healthier shoulders will allow Rice to improve strength throughout his upper body.
• San Francisco: Josh Morgan, receiver. The 49ers were relatively healthy last season, but losing Morgan to a broken ankle cost them as the season progressed, particularly late. Morgan is without a contract for 2012. He has been working out at the 49ers' team facility. Getting him back would help the offense.
• St. Louis: Rodger Saffold, pectoral. The Rams had injuries throughout their roster, especially at cornerback. Saffold's ability to play four positions on the line, including left tackle, makes him more valuable than members of the secondary. Saffold has said he hopes to be ready by April or May, according to Howard Balzer. He suffered a torn pectoral while lifting weights in mid-November.

The hit San Francisco 49ers safety Donte Whitner put on New Orleans' Pierre Thomas set a physical tone for one of the NFL's best defenses Saturday.

It also knocked Thomas from the game with a concussion.

Tough break? Yes, but not entirely unexpected. Thomas became the seventh starting running back to leave a game against the 49ers after suffering an injury. One of them, Philadlephia's LeSean McCoy, returned a short time later. He was slow to get up after blocking the 49ers' Ray McDonald in pass protection.

The chart shows how starting runners have fared against the 49ers this season. The two highest rushing totals came when Patrick Willis was either sidelined by injury (Week 16) or rusty following a month-long layoff (Week 17). Overall, opposing starters averaged about 12 carries for 41 yards against the 49ers this season.

The New York Giants will have starter Ahmad Bradshaw when they visit San Francisco in the NFC title game Sunday. Bradshaw missed the teams' game at Candlestick Park during the regular season. He missed four games overall.

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A look at my all-NFC West picks for the 2011 season, continuing with the defense:

• San Francisco 49ers rookie Aldon Smith defied categorization. I wasn't going to list him at the expense of every-down players at defensive end or linebacker. Neither was I going to leave him off the team after Smith collected 14 sacks. Smith commanded his own category as a situational pass-rusher. Consider that a compliment.
• Some St. Louis Rams fans I know will insist James Laurinaitis should show up among the linebackers. I wasn't going to list him above Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman or Daryl Washington. The Cardinals blocked Laurinaitis well while Beanie Wells set a franchise rushing record with 228 yards. The Rams ranked 32nd against the run most of the season, settling in at No. 31. Dallas' DeMarco Murray also set a franchise single-game rushing record against the Rams. Laurinaitis was not primarily to blame, obviously, but neither was he able to stem the bleeding. He remains a good player with a bright future, but this was not his year.
• The choices along the defensive line forced leaving off very good players such as Darnell Dockett, Ray McDonald and Red Bryant. Alan Branch also played well after leaving Arizona for Seattle. Chris Clemons' obvious strength as a pass-rusher and strong play against the run made him stand out. Insider subscribers might have noticed Clemons showing up third behind Jared Allen and Jason Babin on a list of most valuable sack artists. The piece ranked pass-rushers by the importance of their sacks relative to game situations.
• Seattle's Kam Chancellor was a narrow choice over Arizona's Adrian Wilson at strong safety. I had no problem with Wilson beating out Chancellor in Pro Bowl balloting. Wilson earned that recognition. He was a worthy choice. I do think Chancellor made a bigger impact from start to finish this season, and he did it for a defense that was far more consistent. Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. agreed with me on that choice. An NFL scout I called for another opinion also gave Chancellor a slight edge. Both players were legitimate choices.
• The division has good, young prospects at cornerback. Arizona's Patrick Peterson will probably show up on this team next season. He was trending that way. The 49ers' Carlos Rogers was an easy choice. Seattle's Richard Sherman enjoyed a breakout rookie season and was even better, I thought, than teammate Brandon Browner, a first-alternate to the Pro Bowl.

The chart breaks down all-division choices from 2008-10, plus this season. Still to come: special teams. Let the discussions begin.

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» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending.

Final Power Ranking: 18
Preseason Power Ranking: 21

Biggest surprise: The Cardinals recovered from a 1-6 start to finish 8-8 despite never getting consistently improved play from their quarterbacks. Arizona appeared dead after blowing a 24-6 halftime lead at Baltimore in the seventh game of the season. The Cardinals were trailing the 1-6 St. Louis Rams at home the next week after quarterback John Skelton took two safeties in the third quarter, absurdly producing the first four-point quarter in league history. This was how the Ken Whisenhunt era was going to unravel? No. Patrick Peterson's 99-yard punt return in overtime turned around the season. The Cardinals won at Philadelphia the next week and later put together a four-game winning streak -- the team's longest since 1999. Beating Seattle in Week 17 capped the season appropriately.

Biggest disappointment: Arizona's big play for quarterback Kevin Kolb failed to produce the desired results. Kolb missed seven-plus games to injury and struggled when he was in the lineup. Those blaming the Cardinals' offensive line for protection issues should not overlook Kolb's role in the negative plays. Kolb was nearly 30 percent more likely than Skelton to take sacks. He took more in nine starts (30) than Kurt Warner ever took during a full season with the team. Warner was not playing behind Pro Bowlers, either. Kolb was frequently quick to bail on plays, often with negative results. He completed 13 of 37 passes (35.1 percent) for 167 yards from outside the pocket, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Missing the final three games to a concussion amplified durability questions.

Biggest need: Offensive tackle has to be up there. Brandon Keith broke down physically at right tackle, ending the season on injured reserve. Levi Brown might have played his final game for the team at left tackle. His contract becomes untenable in 2012. The Cardinals could bring him back at a reduced rate. Upgrading the position might be a better option. Two teams, Arizona and Tennessee, have not selected an offensive lineman in the first three rounds of the last four drafts. The Cardinals will need better pass protection even if Kolb improves his pocket awareness.

Team MVP: Larry Fitzgerald. The perennial Pro Bowl choice dropped only one pass despite finishing the season with 150 targets, fourth-most in the league. The three players with more targets than Fitzgerald -- Roddy White, Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson -- combined for 22 drops (14 by White). Fitzgerald upped his yards per reception from 12.6 in 2010 to 17.6 this season. His play bordered on heroic against Seattle in Week 17. Fitzgerald played through a bruised lung, spitting up blood, and still dominated with the game on the line. His grace and sportsmanship also stood out. While other players jawed back and forth, occasionally scuffling, Fitzgerald helped up the men blanketing him in coverage. He joined Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss as the only players with 1,400 yards in four seasons.

What could have been: Peterson's four touchdowns on punt returns and improved play at cornerback gave the Cardinals outstanding return on their first-round draft investment. Imagine if second-round choice Ryan Williams hadn't suffered a season-ending knee injury during preseason. Williams showed big-play ability during camp. Without him, the running game faltered some as starter Beanie Wells fought through a knee injury. Wells topped 1,000 yards, but he averaged 3.1 yards per attempt with a long run of nine yards over Arizona's final four games.

Thoughts on the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals following their Week 17 game Sunday at University of Phoenix Stadium, a 23-20 victory for the Cardinals:

What it means: The Cardinals finished with an 8-8 record. The Seahawks finished 7-9. That means Arizona recovered from a 1-6 start to post a record of at least .500 for the fourth time in five seasons under coach Ken Whisenhunt. Seattle rallied back from a 2-6 start. Consecutive defeats to end the season improved their draft status. The Seahawks finished tied with Kansas City for the 11th-worst record in the NFL, and both teams had a .512 strength of schedule. That means a coin toss will decide which team picks 11th overall in the 2012 draft. The Chiefs will pick 13th. Had Seattle won, the Seahawks would have lost 4-6 spots in the draft. Arizona would have picked 11th.

What I liked: This was another intense, physical battle between NFC West teams late in the season. Penalties are not something I would generally list under the "what I liked" category, but personal fouls against Brandon Browner, Richard Sherman, Paris Lenon, Early Doucet and Levi Brown reflected the spirited nature of this game. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch continued to punish defenders with his aggressive running, breaking free from Calais Campbell and running over Daryl Washington on two early runs. He and Leon Washington gave the Seahawks another strong team outing on the ground (170-plus yards). Leon Washington's 48-yard rushing touchdown and 47-yard kickoff return in overtime were key plays. Arizona's LaRod Stephens-Howling made impact plays, as well. His 39-yard run was a career long. He also saved a touchdown by tackling Sherman following an interception in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks' big corners could not stop Larry Fitzgerald, but they were not dominated physically, a change from past seasons. Competition for the ball was often fierce. Fitzgerald played like an MVP anyway. Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson, active despite a strained Achilles tendon, had a 42-yard punt return and also blocked a short field goal try. Seattle continued to develop young players, with undrafted rookie receiver Ricardo Lockette providing a 61-yard touchdown reception.

What I didn't like: Running back Beanie Wells was inactive for the Cardinals. He missed both games against Seattle this season. Wells' knee problems had limited him in recent weeks. His absence made it tougher for Arizona to match the physical tone Seattle set with Lynch breaking tackles and running over defenders. Both quarterbacks struggled at times. Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson twice threw too long for Ben Obomanu when the receiver might have scored touchdowns. He also missed Golden Tate open deep along the right sideline. Jackson threw what should have been an interception in the red zone when Seattle trailed 20-10, but the Cardinals' Washington dropped it. That was a bad play for both teams. Skelton's interception to Sherman came at a critical time. The Seahawks' absence of a pass-rusher beyond Chris Clemons showed up in the clutch once again, this time when Skelton had plenty of time to find Fitzgerald for a 26-yard gain over the middle in overtime.

What's next: The Seahawks and Cardinals missed the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers appear highly likely to grab the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. They're leading the St. Louis Rams, 20-10, and driving late in the third quarter.

Looking ahead to the late NFC West game between Seattle and Arizona, I wanted to take a closer look at something Gus Bradley, the Seahawks' defensive coordinator, told reporters late in the week.

Bradley was lauding the Seahawks' corners, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, when he said their abilities in man coverage give the coaching staff greater flexibility.

"With the amount of eight-man fronts we're playing, it's a credit to the corners because you shouldn’t be able to get away with probably as much as we're doing," Bradley said.

I've put together a couple charts to illustrate when the Seahawks use eight-man fronts and when it matters. Counting defenders in the box area can give us a general feel for how a team plays defense. However, playing with eight-plus defenders in the box reveals less if the opposing offense has additional blockers available. For example, teams will naturally use eight-plus defenders more frequently against San Francisco because the 49ers use fullbacks and tight ends in greater quantities than other teams do.

In general, though, the Seahawks have used eight-man fronts more frequently in recent games. They have also used more "loaded" fronts -- those with more defenders in the box than the offense has blockers available -- over the same stretch.

The first chart shows an opponent-by-opponent look at how frequently the Seahawks have used loaded fronts this season. Sometimes, they have loaded up against teams with strong running games (Atlanta). Other times, they have loaded up against teams with limited passing games (Chicago), figuring they could get away with fewer players in coverage.

In reading their stats against Arizona, remember that the Cardinals were without Beanie Wells when the teams played in Week 3. Wells has carried against loaded fronts only 18 times in 260 rushes, however. They have used eight-man front against him 41 times.

The numbers come from Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information.


The second chart shows an opponent-by-opponent look at how frequently the Seahawks have used eight or more defenders in the box, regardless of how many blockers were available to their opponents. This is where the 49ers' run-oriented offense and preference for heavier personnel groupings come into clearer focus. I was a little surprised to see the numbers so low against Baltimore.

Four of the 13 players with at least 1,000 yards rushing this season call the NFC West home.

All four run with power.

Two in particular -- Arizona's Beanie Wells and Seattle's Marshawn Lynch -- have racked up yardage after contact. Both rank among the NFL's top four in total yards after contact. And among those players with at least 1,000 yards, Wells and Lynch rank high in percentage of yards gained after contact (see chart, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information).

Week 17 gives us one last chance to see Wells, Lynch and St. Louis' Steven Jackson in action this season. Along with San Francisco's Frank Gore, they give the NFC West more 1,000-yard rushers than any division. The AFC North, AFC South and AFC West have two apiece. The AFC East, NFC East and NFC South have one apiece. The NFC North has none after injuries sidelined Matt Forte (997 yards) and Adrian Peterson (970).

Six other backs are within 150 yards of 1,000 this season: Shonn Greene (999), Chris Johnson (986), Fred Jackson (934), Michael Bush (911), DeMarco Murray (897) and Rashard Mendenhall (890). Murray is sidelined by injury.
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 17:

Draft order disorder. Every NFC West team but San Francisco faces a potential significant shift in draft order based on Week 17 results. The St. Louis Rams will emerge with the No. 1 overall pick if they lose to the 49ers while Indianapolis defeats Jacksonville. The Colts will pick first if they lose, or if the Rams win. The winner between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks will finish 8-8 instead of 7-9, producing likely a swing of several spots in the order. The 7-9 team with the easiest strength of schedule will pick ninth. The 8-8 team with the strongest strength of schedule would pick 20th.

Gunning for the record. Two of the NFL's sack leaders will stand on opposite sidelines at the Edward Jones Dome. San Francisco's Aldon Smith has 14 sacks, one more than St. Louis' Chris Long. The NFC West in its current form has never produced two players with as many combined sacks in the same season. Smith needs one more to break the NFL rookie record Jevon Kearse set in 1999 (records kept since 1982). Smith and Long are both close to setting an NFC West single-season record since realignment in 2002. Bertrand Berry had 14.5 sacks for Arizona in 2004. Patrick Kerney had the same total for Seattle in 2007.

Alex Smith's improbable rating. The 49ers must be pleased to know that Smith, with a 90.1 NFL passer rating through 15 games, has a chance to finish with a better single-season mark than Joe Montana posted with the team in 1981, 1982, 1986, 1988 or 1990. Passer rating is but one tool for measuring quarterback performance. No one is saying it's perfect, or even that Smith has played better this season than Montana did during those five seasons. Still pretty tough to believe, though, right?

Battle of the backs. Frank Gore leads NFC West running backs with 1,202 yards even though his production has trailed off late in the season. Marshawn Lynch would have to outgain Gore by 85 yards to overtake him for most rushing yards in the division. That is unlikely, but Lynch has set a furious pace lately. He leads the NFL in rushing since Week 9, gaining 855 yards over that eight-game period. The Rams' Steven Jackson ranks eighth in the league with 620 yards during that time. Arizona's Beanie Wells is 15th (541 yards), one spot ahead of Gore (527). All four primary backs in the division have topped 1,000 yards.

Spagnuolo's last stand? The Rams started the season with an 0-6 record. They're in danger of finishing it with seven consecutive defeats. No team in the NFL has a worse record than the Rams since Steve Spagnuolo became head coach in 2009. St. Louis, shut out by the 49ers earlier this season, needs 10 points to avoid becoming the lowest-scoring Rams team since the franchise left Los Angeles. The 49ers, meanwhile, are allowing a franchise-best 13.46 points per game. The 1946 team, which played in the AAFC, allowed 13.5. The current team can break that record by allowing 13 or fewer points. The 1976 team holds the NFL-era franchise record at 13.57 points per game allowed. The current 49ers could break that record by allowing no more than 15 points to the Rams.

Thoughts on the Arizona Cardinals' 23-16 road defeat against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16:

What it means: The Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention while losing for only the second time since opening the season with a 1-6 record. They now need a Week 17 victory over Seattle to avoid a second consecutive losing season. Quarterback John Skelton, starting in place of the injured Kevin Kolb, mounted another stirring fourth-quarter comeback, but could not quite pull it off. Finishing the season with a home defeat to the Seahawks would undermine the good feeling surrounding the team before Saturday.

What I liked: The Cardinals rallied for another improbable fourth-quarter comeback, this time after falling behind 23-0. Larry Fitzgerald's 30-yard touchdown reception in the fourth quarter got Arizona on the scoreboard while continuing a run of big plays for him this season. Fitzgerald has improved his yards-per-catch average by more than five from last season. Running back Beanie Wells topped 1,000 yards for the season, a career first and a Cardinals first since Edgerrin James did it during the 2007 season. The offense gained traction in the fourth quarter, continuing a season-long trend. Skelton found Jeff King for a touchdown that pulled the Cardinals within 23-13 midway through the fourth quarter. Calais Campbell, who entered the game with seven sacks, collected another one. He forced and recovered a fumble to get the ball back for Arizona with the team trailing by only seven points and with more than three minutes remaining. The Cardinals drew up the perfect fourth-and-5 play with a chance to tie the game, getting receiver Early Doucet wide open in the end zone for what should have been an easy touchdown.

What I didn't like: Doucet stumbled and could not make the tying touchdown reception after the Cardinals had clawed back into contention late. Was the pass behind him, or did he simply fall down on his own while crossing the goal line without a defender near him? Either way, the results were painful for the Cardinals and fatal to their playoff hopes. It had to be troubling for Arizona to see Skelton toss three interceptions as the Cardinals fell behind 23-0 with the team's playoff viability on the line. Skelton repeatedly missed receivers high, a problem for him throughout the season. The Bengals had been struggling and were not at all impressive during their victory over St. Louis last week. For the Cardinals to fall behind so quickly and by such a large amount was unexpected. A penalty against Cardinals strong safety Adrian Wilson for a hit on Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton nullified an interception by cornerback Patrick Peterson. The hit did not appear particularly flagrant. It was a tough break against the Cardinals at a point in the game when they needed all the help they could get. Peterson later left the game with an apparent injured Achilles' tendon. The Cardinals put the ball on the ground twice in critical situations, once on a two-point conversion try, and again in the red zone -- both in the fourth quarter.

What's next: The Cardinals are home against the Seahawks in Week 17.

The four starting running backs from the NFC West have combined for 4,090 yards and 33 rushing touchdowns through 14 games. They are heading toward the regular-season finish line at varying speeds.

The Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch, though contained from a yardage standpoint at Chicago in Week 15, has been gaining momentum. He has five 100-yard games, all since Week 9. He has five rushing touchdowns over his last three games and has scored in each of his last 10 appearances.

The San Francisco 49ers' Frank Gore, slowed by various ailments, has averaged 56.2 yards per game over his last six appearances after gaining at least 107 yards in five consecutive games. Gore hasn't been injured seriously enough to appear on injury reports recently, but he has not always appeared full strength, either.

A knee injury has sometimes limited the Arizona Cardinals' Beanie Wells, but a 228-yard performance against St. Louis in Week 12 put Wells in position to claim the first 1,000-yard season of his career. He has 994 heading into the final two games of the season. He has 10 rushing touchdowns.

The St. Louis Rams' Steven Jackson, slowed by a quadriceps injury early in the season. has appeared healthy over the last 10 games or so. A three-game run with at least 128 yards helped the Rams win two of three games from Weeks 8-10. His carries, yards and average per carry have dropped significantly since then, however.

The chart shows how many yards each NFC West back has gained, with projected totals for the season based on yards per game to this point. Gore has 11 runs of at least 20 yards, nearly as many as the other three combined (14).

Thoughts on the Cleveland Browns' overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals:

What it means: Different quarterback, same result for Cleveland. In Seneca Wallace's first start at quarterback this season, the Browns (4-10) suffered a fourth-quarter meltdown, losing in overtime after leading by 10 points with 8 1/2 minutes left in the game. It marked Cleveland's seventh loss in eight games including its fourth straight. This also secured the Browns' fourth straight season with double-digit defeats.

Fourth-quarter collapse: Holding a 17-7 lead in the fourth quarter, the Browns let the Cardinals score the final 17 points. On the series after Beanie Wells scored a 1-yard touchdown, Wallace was sacked twice, fumbling deep in Cleveland territory on the last one. Jay Feely's 33-yard field goal tied the game in regulation and his 22-yarder in overtime won it.

Wallace fades: In starting for the injured Colt McCoy (concussion), Seneca Wallace started strong, completing 13-of-20 passes for 179 yards in the first three quarters. His 76-yard touchdown to Greg Little put the Browns up 17-7 -- their biggest lead since Week 2 against the Colts. But Wallace struggled in the fourth quarter and overtime, going 5-of-11 for 47 yards including a costly fumble.

Running strong: Peyton Hillis, who wasn't on the injury report this week, showed what he could do when healthy. He gained 99 yards on 26 carries and scored his first touchdown since Sept. 18 at Indianapolis. Hillis set the tone early with 35 rushing yards on the opening series that ended with his touchdown, a rare fast start for the Browns this season.

What's next: The Browns play at Baltimore on Dec. 24, their final road game of the regular season.