NFL Nation: Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben is bedrock of 'Rosetta Stone' attack
May, 18, 2012
May 18
10:00
AM ET
By
Jamison Hensley | ESPN.com
One week, Ben Roethlisberger is being given a diploma after graduating from college. The next, he's being handed a new playbook from offensive coordinator Todd Haley.
"I joke and say that my final paper for Miami on Tibet was a lot easier than the Rosetta Stone we're doing now here," Roethlisberger told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette last week.
The Steelers quarterback might have been showing off with the reference to the the ancient hieroglyphic stone (and not the computer software that helped swimmer Michael Phelps learn some words in Mandarin), but you get the point of the punchline. Of what he's seen of Haley's complicated offense so far, Roethlisberger estimated it's 90 percent different than the one run by former Steelers coordinator Bruce Arians.
What should never change is the foundation of the Steelers' attack -- and that is Roethlisberger. Haley is the new playcaller, but this is still Roethlisberger's offense. As long as he's able to stand on two feet -- which has been a challenge at times after taking so many hits -- Roethlisberger should be slinging the ball 30 times per game to Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Heath Miller.
If the Steelers want a top-10 offense, they have to throw the ball. The three teams that averaged over 30 points per game last season were pass-first offenses that relied on the arms of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady.
If the Steelers want to remain an annual playoff contender, their offense has to revolve around Roethlisberger. The top five passing teams in the NFL last season -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and New York Giants -- all advanced to the postseason and two of them met in the Super Bowl.
There was talk this offseason that Pittsburgh needed to get back to Steeler football and run the ball more. Who said this -- Art Rooney II or Ray Lewis? Because taking the ball out of Roethlisberger's hands only helps the defense.
Haley has proved to be extremely adaptable in his last two NFL stops. As the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, he installed a run-heavy offense with running backs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. As the offensive coordinator with the Arizona Cardinals, he put together a pass-happy attack with Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston.
It doesn't take an ESPN analyst like Trent Dilfer to realize that the Steelers' personnel resembles the Cardinals more than the Chiefs. The Steelers have one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL and a handful of young receivers who can fly all over the field. Pittsburgh is also going to be without its starting running back (Rashard Mendenhall is recovering from knee surgery) and doesn't have a Pro Bowl fullback like Vonta Leach. There really should be no mystery in how the Steelers will attack defenses this year.
"Steelers fans and coach [Mike] Tomlin and the Rooneys apparently thought [Arians] was throwing the ball too much," Roethlisberger said last week. "But yesterday in Coach Haley's office, we were talking about using the no-huddle and throwing the ball and how much we have to use our weapons."
The Steelers have yet to line up as a full team this offseason, but you can imagine what they will look like on offense when they do. It should be three wide receivers split out wide and a single back behind Roethlisberger. The idea is to spread out defenses and keep them on their heels with the no huddle.
Haley won't be afraid to put the offense on the shoulders of Roethlisberger. He did it with Warner in Arizona. In 2008, the Cardinals had the highest called-pass percentage in the league at 66.1 percent, according to ESPN Stats & Information's Allison Loucks.
The Steelers were never that one-dimensional under Arians, although it seemed like that at times. Last season, the Steelers called passes (includes sacks and scrambles) on 58.7 percent of their plays , which was 11th in the NFL but still under the league average of 59.4 percent.
The change from Arians to Haley was more than retooling the scheme. It's about getting into the end zone. There was no excuse for the Steelers to rank 12th in scoring in 2009 and 2010. And there was really no excuse for them to rank 21st this past season. Pittsburgh only averaged 20.3 points per game in 2011 and scored over 30 points three times.
Haley has to know the pieces are in place for a top-notch offense. Roethlisberger, who threw for more than 4,000 yards in two of the past three seasons, is proof of that. He can go deep to Wallace, hit Brown over the middle or find Miller down the seam. There are more options with speedy Emmanuel Sanders and veteran Jerricho Cotchery.
Perhaps one tweak is getting Roethlisberger to get rid of the ball quicker. The Steelers already took steps to reduce the hits on the two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback by drafting offensive linemen in the first two rounds. The biggest loss on offense, outside of Mendenhall, was the release and eventual retirement of wide receiver Hines Ward. This should allow Roethlisberger to take on a larger leadership role.
So, Roethlisberger's first challenge is to understand the "Rosetta Stone" playbook. His ultimate one is to take a good offense and make it a great one.
"I joke and say that my final paper for Miami on Tibet was a lot easier than the Rosetta Stone we're doing now here," Roethlisberger told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette last week.
The Steelers quarterback might have been showing off with the reference to the the ancient hieroglyphic stone (and not the computer software that helped swimmer Michael Phelps learn some words in Mandarin), but you get the point of the punchline. Of what he's seen of Haley's complicated offense so far, Roethlisberger estimated it's 90 percent different than the one run by former Steelers coordinator Bruce Arians.
[+] Enlarge
Jason Bridge/US PresswireExpect to see the Steelers' offense again relying on the right arm of Ben Roethlisberger.
Jason Bridge/US PresswireExpect to see the Steelers' offense again relying on the right arm of Ben Roethlisberger.If the Steelers want a top-10 offense, they have to throw the ball. The three teams that averaged over 30 points per game last season were pass-first offenses that relied on the arms of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady.
If the Steelers want to remain an annual playoff contender, their offense has to revolve around Roethlisberger. The top five passing teams in the NFL last season -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and New York Giants -- all advanced to the postseason and two of them met in the Super Bowl.
There was talk this offseason that Pittsburgh needed to get back to Steeler football and run the ball more. Who said this -- Art Rooney II or Ray Lewis? Because taking the ball out of Roethlisberger's hands only helps the defense.
Haley has proved to be extremely adaptable in his last two NFL stops. As the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, he installed a run-heavy offense with running backs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. As the offensive coordinator with the Arizona Cardinals, he put together a pass-happy attack with Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston.
It doesn't take an ESPN analyst like Trent Dilfer to realize that the Steelers' personnel resembles the Cardinals more than the Chiefs. The Steelers have one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL and a handful of young receivers who can fly all over the field. Pittsburgh is also going to be without its starting running back (Rashard Mendenhall is recovering from knee surgery) and doesn't have a Pro Bowl fullback like Vonta Leach. There really should be no mystery in how the Steelers will attack defenses this year.
"Steelers fans and coach [Mike] Tomlin and the Rooneys apparently thought [Arians] was throwing the ball too much," Roethlisberger said last week. "But yesterday in Coach Haley's office, we were talking about using the no-huddle and throwing the ball and how much we have to use our weapons."
The Steelers have yet to line up as a full team this offseason, but you can imagine what they will look like on offense when they do. It should be three wide receivers split out wide and a single back behind Roethlisberger. The idea is to spread out defenses and keep them on their heels with the no huddle.
Haley won't be afraid to put the offense on the shoulders of Roethlisberger. He did it with Warner in Arizona. In 2008, the Cardinals had the highest called-pass percentage in the league at 66.1 percent, according to ESPN Stats & Information's Allison Loucks.
The Steelers were never that one-dimensional under Arians, although it seemed like that at times. Last season, the Steelers called passes (includes sacks and scrambles) on 58.7 percent of their plays , which was 11th in the NFL but still under the league average of 59.4 percent.
The change from Arians to Haley was more than retooling the scheme. It's about getting into the end zone. There was no excuse for the Steelers to rank 12th in scoring in 2009 and 2010. And there was really no excuse for them to rank 21st this past season. Pittsburgh only averaged 20.3 points per game in 2011 and scored over 30 points three times.
Haley has to know the pieces are in place for a top-notch offense. Roethlisberger, who threw for more than 4,000 yards in two of the past three seasons, is proof of that. He can go deep to Wallace, hit Brown over the middle or find Miller down the seam. There are more options with speedy Emmanuel Sanders and veteran Jerricho Cotchery.
Perhaps one tweak is getting Roethlisberger to get rid of the ball quicker. The Steelers already took steps to reduce the hits on the two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback by drafting offensive linemen in the first two rounds. The biggest loss on offense, outside of Mendenhall, was the release and eventual retirement of wide receiver Hines Ward. This should allow Roethlisberger to take on a larger leadership role.
So, Roethlisberger's first challenge is to understand the "Rosetta Stone" playbook. His ultimate one is to take a good offense and make it a great one.
The crew debates if Cam Newton will have a sophomore slump, Mark Schlereth has the Colts should use Big Ben as the model for developing Andrew Luck, and who is the best offensive lineman in the NFL?

One thing I have learned in my nearly one full year of running this blog is that everyone is in complete lock-step agreement on how good a quarterback Tony Romo is and on his value to the Dallas Cowboys. Every time I write about Romo, all of the comments are exactly the same, and there is never any dispute about Romo's ability, his worth or his future prospects. We have our share of controversial topics here on the NFC East blog, but when the topic is Romo, no one ever argues or gets upset.
Yeah, right.
Romo's as reliable a lightning-rod topic as this blog has, and hoo boy do I have a doozy for you guys. You might have seen this when it went up Monday afternoon, but it bears a bump this morning: K.C. Joyner has a piece up on the site that says, according to several statistical measures, that Romo is one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Now, if you're still reading, and you haven't already rushed to the comments section of this post to fight with each other about this, or to K.C.'s Insider post to argue directly with him, I'll give you a little synopsis of the man's points. (And I guess I might as well remind you that K.C. was about the only analyst last summer who was predicting the Giants to win this division, so it's not as though his often-controversial opinions have never been right.)
K.C. tells us that Romo's ranking is based on the following, mainly statistics-based reasons:
-Superior route-depth metrics (tied for fifth last year in yards per pass attempt)
-Low bad-decision rate, or "BDR" (fifth-lowest last year among quarterbacks with at least 175 pass attempts)
-High Total QBR (finished fourth in the NFL in 2011)
-A long history of top-level statistical performance (tied for fifth in NFL history in career yards per pass attempt)
-Ability to raise the level of play of those around him (Romo averaged double-digit yards per attempt to his third and fourth wide receivers in 2011)
-Changing of the elite guard at the quarterback position (i.e. disappointing 2011 seasons from Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, and injury concerns about Michael Vick and Peyton Manning)
-No signs of letting up (still in his prime and surrounded by big-time offensive weapons)
I think what's interesting is that a lot of these areas in which the numbers show that Romo excels are areas of his game that often fall victim to easy criticism from his detractors. "BDR," for example. K.C. acknowledges that games like the Detroit loss last season contribute to a perception that Romo is a reckless gunslinger, but he says the numbers don't back it up:
BDR is a metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover, like a dropped interception or fumble that is recovered by the offense.
The nine-year track record of this metric shows that a 2 percent or lower BDR is an above-average mark for a dink-and-dunk passer, while gunslinger quarterbacks can take pride in a BDR under 3 percent.
...
As poor as that [Detroit] performance was, Romo still posted a 1.8 percent BDR for the season. That total ranked fifth-best among qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 175 attempts) and is doubly notable because it's quite rare for a risk-taking quarterback to post a BDR under 2 percent.
In the end, though, the issue with Romo remains unchanged. Those who are inclined to dislike him will find plenty of reasons to do so, and will hang their hats on the fact that he's only won one playoff game ever. They'll go back to the botched snap, and the playoff loss to the Giants four years ago, and they'll bellow that he doesn't have what it takes to be great because he hasn't come up big in a big game. And until and unless he does that, no statistical analysis will convince those who don't want to be convinced.
The fact is that Romo is an excellent quarterback who hasn't won yet. And while in this day and age, all that matters to anyone about a quarterback is whether he's ever held the Vince Lombardi trophy up over his head while confetti fluttered down around him, it is in fact possible to be exactly that. Doesn't mean it's fun to be that, but it also doesn't mean Romo's worthless. Two-thirds of the teams in the NFL would trade their current quarterback situation straight-up for the Cowboys' quarterback situation, whether the guy's won or not.
A few thoughts wrapping up Ben Roethlisberger's comments regarding the San Francisco 49ers possibly targeting his ankle, following my "NFL Live" conversation with Trey Wingo:
Case closed? I don't see much more ground to cover from this game, at least.
- Roethlisberger would be in better position to know than any of us watching the game from safer vantage points. Watching every play on video in no way replicates what Roethlisberger experienced staring down Justin Smith, Aldon Smith and the San Francisco defense.
- Nothing stood out as unusual when I re-watched every play, including some key plays from the coaches' tape featuring wider camera angles.
- The 49ers sent four or fewer pass-rushers 80 percent of the time, consistent with their averages for the season, according to Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information. They did not appear to be going out of their way to pressure Roethlisberger. They trusted their four-man rush.
- The Steelers used shotgun formations 77 percent of the time, up from 35 percent earlier in the season. That took pressure off Roethlisberger's injured ankle. It also gave Roethlisberger a better chance to protect himself.
- The comments Roethlisberger made were pretty harmless. The current climate regarding player safety threatens to distort. Of course the 49ers wanted to test Roethlisberger's injured ankle. That doesn't necessarily mean they did anything outside the rules.
Case closed? I don't see much more ground to cover from this game, at least.
No visual proof that 49ers targeted Big Ben
May, 10, 2012
May 10
9:07
AM ET
By
Jamison Hensley | ESPN.com
Kyle Terada/US PresswireAldon Smith had 2.5 sacks of Ben Roethlisberger in the Week 15 game in San Francisco.While Ben Roethlisberger didn't accuse the 49ers of putting a bounty on him, the Steelers quarterback did suggest that San Francisco was targeting his injured ankle.
When asked about the last time he felt a team was going after his knees, ankles or head, Roethlisberger said on "The Dan Patrick Show," via Comcast SportsNet Bay Area: "Um, wow, that's tough. I don't really complain about that stuff, either. But I think when we played San Fran, I felt like there were some things going on, some extra ... "
Roethlisberger added, "Now, obviously, I did have the ankle and I was playing, so there was kind of a bulls-eye on there anyway. But for the most part, guys play tough and you go into a game expecting it. I expect to be tougher than them."
I attended that Dec. 20 game in San Francisco and don't remember anything close to a cheap shot on Roethlisberger in that game. The 49ers weren't penalized or fined for any illegal hits in that game.
My thorough colleague from the NFC West, Mike Sando, went even further. In his blog post on this subject, he reviewed every Pittsburgh offensive play from that game and saw nothing that bordered on dirty play. Roethlisberger was hit eight times by the 49ers, and Sando said defenders didn't twist the quarterback's lower body or roll onto his sprained ankle. So, unless the 49ers went after Roethlisberger when the lights went out at Candlestick Park that night, it's difficult to figure out what Roethlisberger was talking about when he said "there were some things going on."
If Roethlisberger did suspect the 49ers were going after his ankle, this is another reason why he shouldn't have been allowed to finish the game. Roethlisberger was still on the field late in the fourth quarter when the Steelers trailed by 17 points. I questioned the decision that night on exposing him to further injury. I really question it now after hearing Roethlisberger's concerns.
Roethlisberger said after that game that he didn't hurt his ankle more by playing in that game. He did, however, miss the next game against St. Louis, which was played five days later (it was a Christmas Eve game that followed a Monday night one).
He never mentioned any questionable hits in his press conference following the 20-3 loss in December, when reporters repeatedly asked him about his injured ankle. He seemed frustrated but not angry after a performance that included three interceptions and a fourth-quarter fumble. "I was probably the best 49er tonight," Roethlisberger said after the game.
Ben Roethlisberger did not accuse the San Francisco 49ers of outright dirty play against him in Week 15 last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' quarterback did drop a hint Tuesday when Dan Patrick asked him to recall the most recent time an opponent took shots at his head, knees or ankles.
"Um, wow, that's tough," Roethlisberger told Patrick, according to Matt Maiocco. "I don't really complain about that stuff, either. But I think when we played San Fran, I felt like there were some things going on, some extra ...
"Now, obviously, I did have the ankle [injury] and I was playing, so there was kind of a bull's-eye on there anyway. But for the most part, guys play tough and you go into a game expecting it. I expect to be tougher than them."
Lest this little implication get out of hand unnecessarily, I went back and watched every Steelers offensive play from that game. The stats crew credited the 49ers with eight quarterback hits. Most were straightforward. Defenders were not twisting Roethlisberger's lower body, rolling over onto his sore ankle or stepping on him blatantly.
Stretches lasting 15-plus plays passed without the 49ers making any contact with Roethlisberger. They did get pressure on him late in the game. Aldon Smith did hit Roethlisberger in the lower body at one point, but the hit appeared routine.
Smith and NaVorro Bowman had free shots on Roethlisberger late in the game. They did not exploit those opportunities at additional expense to Roethlisberger. Bowman specifically had an opportunity to fall on Roethlisberger on the Steelers' final play, but he did not.
Roethlisberger would know better than most whether an opponent was going out of its way to hurt him. Nothing jumped out as suspicious when I watched the game, however.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' quarterback did drop a hint Tuesday when Dan Patrick asked him to recall the most recent time an opponent took shots at his head, knees or ankles.
"Um, wow, that's tough," Roethlisberger told Patrick, according to Matt Maiocco. "I don't really complain about that stuff, either. But I think when we played San Fran, I felt like there were some things going on, some extra ...
"Now, obviously, I did have the ankle [injury] and I was playing, so there was kind of a bull's-eye on there anyway. But for the most part, guys play tough and you go into a game expecting it. I expect to be tougher than them."
Lest this little implication get out of hand unnecessarily, I went back and watched every Steelers offensive play from that game. The stats crew credited the 49ers with eight quarterback hits. Most were straightforward. Defenders were not twisting Roethlisberger's lower body, rolling over onto his sore ankle or stepping on him blatantly.
Stretches lasting 15-plus plays passed without the 49ers making any contact with Roethlisberger. They did get pressure on him late in the game. Aldon Smith did hit Roethlisberger in the lower body at one point, but the hit appeared routine.
Smith and NaVorro Bowman had free shots on Roethlisberger late in the game. They did not exploit those opportunities at additional expense to Roethlisberger. Bowman specifically had an opportunity to fall on Roethlisberger on the Steelers' final play, but he did not.
Roethlisberger would know better than most whether an opponent was going out of its way to hurt him. Nothing jumped out as suspicious when I watched the game, however.
How to value Alex Smith's performance stood among the most debated subjects on the NFC West blog last season.
Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.
The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.
Total QBR, the metric ESPN's Analytics Team developed to more fully assess how quarterbacks contributed to winning, supported the 49ers' valuation.
Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.
The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.
Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.
The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.
Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.
These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.
"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."
The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.
"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.
"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."
I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.
For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.
My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.
This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.
Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.
The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.
[+] Enlarge
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesAlex Smith ranked ninth in passer rating but 22nd in QBR last season.
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesAlex Smith ranked ninth in passer rating but 22nd in QBR last season.Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.
The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.
Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.
The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.
Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.
These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.
"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."
The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.
"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.
"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."
I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.
For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.
My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.
This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.
Leftwich should win Steelers' backup job
April, 27, 2012
Apr 27
10:45
AM ET
By
Jamison Hensley | ESPN.com
While most of the attention focused on the Steelers getting the best guard available (Stanford's David DeCastro), they quietly made an important addition even before the draft began. Pittsburgh agreed to terms on a one-year deal with quarterback Byron Leftwich.
LeftwichBringing back Charlie Batch less than two weeks ago was an insurance policy if the Steelers couldn't keep Leftwich. Now, Leftwich is the favorite to be the primary backup to Ben Roethlisberger, as long as he remains healthy. He has started 49 games and passed for 10,260 yards and 58 touchdowns.
Leftwich, 32, is five years younger than Batch, and is a more viable option to lead an offense if Roethlisberger went down for an extended period. The Steelers have always preferred Leftwich to Batch. Leftwich was supposed to start for the suspended Roethlisberger in 2010, but he hurt his knee in the final preseason game. He was also projected to be the team's No. 2 quarterback last season before breaking his arm in the preseason.
The Steelers now have five quarterbacks on the roster: Roethlisberger, Leftwich, Batch, former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith, and Jerrod Johnson. Striking a deal with Leftwich decreases the chances of Pittsburgh drafting a quarterback in the later rounds.

Leftwich, 32, is five years younger than Batch, and is a more viable option to lead an offense if Roethlisberger went down for an extended period. The Steelers have always preferred Leftwich to Batch. Leftwich was supposed to start for the suspended Roethlisberger in 2010, but he hurt his knee in the final preseason game. He was also projected to be the team's No. 2 quarterback last season before breaking his arm in the preseason.
The Steelers now have five quarterbacks on the roster: Roethlisberger, Leftwich, Batch, former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith, and Jerrod Johnson. Striking a deal with Leftwich decreases the chances of Pittsburgh drafting a quarterback in the later rounds.
Start of 'older' era for Browns with Weeden
April, 27, 2012
Apr 27
12:47
AM ET
By
Jamison Hensley | ESPN.com
BEREA, Ohio -- The Colt McCoy era is over. A new one -- make that older one -- began Thursday night when the Cleveland Browns selected Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden with the 22nd overall pick.
The Browns have gone from a weak-armed quarterback to a geriatric one by NFL standards. At 28 years, 195 days, Weeden is the oldest player ever to be taken in the first round of the Common Draft era, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Weeden is only two years younger than Ben Roethlisberger. He's one year older than Brady Quinn, the last quarterback taken by the Browns in the first round.
Drafting running back Trent Richardson in the first round was a no-brainer. And, even though I think Weeden can be a quality starter in this league, taking him in the first round makes little sense for a team that is not a quarterback away from contending for a Super Bowl.
The Browns have too many other needs on offense to reach for a failed minor-league pitcher. The Cleveland front office believes it found a franchise quarterback in Weeden, but you have to wonder who is going to block for him at right tackle and who is going to catch the long passes from Weeden's big arm. The Browns are right that Weeden will be an upgrade over McCoy. But, like McCoy, he might have trouble reaching that potential with the holes surrounding him.
In a span of a few hours, the Dawg Pound went from high-fiving over the selection of Richardson to scratching their heads over Weeden.
Why didn't the Browns take a wide receiver like Georgia Tech's Stephen Hill? Why didn't Cleveland pick up an offensive tackle like Stanford's Jonathan Martin or Mississippi's Bobby Massie? Why did a rebuilding franchise select an older quarterback?
"We went through the process of evaluating him, we became very fond of him," Browns coach Pat Shurmur said. "We all did, from Randy [Lerner, owner] to Mike [Holmgren, team president] to Tom [Heckert, general manager] to myself. I came away saying this is a guy we'd like to have on our team. That's where we're at right now."
It was interesting that Shurmur pointed out that the owner had input on this decision. The pressure is on, and the clock is ticking.
At his age, Weeden has to start immediately. There's no time to let him sit and learn. And, because of his age, the expectation is to win immediately.
Browns officials shrugged off Weeden's age as being an issue. The number they concentrated on is 22, which is Weeden's wins in 25 starts in college.
"We feel like the kid's a winner," Shurmur said. "I wasn't concerned about his age."
The arrival of Weeden could mean the end of McCoy's days in Cleveland. The Browns gave McCoy a major vote of no confidence when they aggressively tried to trade up for Robert Griffin III last month.
The question now isn't whether McCoy will compete for the job. It's whether McCoy will even be on this team. Heckert didn't deny the possibility that the Browns could trade McCoy this weekend.
"To be honest, we haven't thought about that. We really haven't," Heckert said. "That's something we'll talk about tonight and tomorrow."
If it wasn't for Weeden's age, he would have been a top-10 pick. He has a strong arm. He's got a quick release. He is a hard worker. He is a respected leader.
There's a good chance that Weeden will be a productive quarterback and might end the string of other "franchise" quarterbacks like Tim Couch, Derek Anderson and Quinn. The problem is, teams draft quarterbacks in the first round to be the starter for the next decade. The odds are against that with Weeden, who will turn 30 in October next year.
The Browns have done such a great job in rebuilding the defense in the past two drafts that you want to give them the benefit of the doubt that they'll do the same on offense. When it came time for the Browns to pick at No. 22, Heckert said there was no decision to make especially after Baylor wide receiver Kendall Wright was drafted by Tennessee at No. 20.
"Brandon was by far the best player for us," Heckert said. "There wasn't really even an afterthought. As soon as a couple of guys went, we knew we were going to take him."
Weeden might have been the best player available at that point. He was just not the right player for the Browns.
NFL may not give Maualuga another pass
April, 26, 2012
Apr 26
1:35
PM ET
By
Jamison Hensley | ESPN.com
A judge dismissed an assault charge against Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Rey Maualuga on Thursday after learning the dispute was settled in mediation.
Maualuga might not get off as easy from the NFL, and he really shouldn't based on the league's history with repeat offenders. In February 2010, two years before this latest incident, he pleaded guilty to drunken driving but he successfully won his appeal of a one-game suspension.
Avoiding a suspension will be tougher this time and it doesn't matter that he avoided conviction. In fact, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Ben Roethlisberger two years ago when the Steelers quarterback wasn't arrested or charged with a crime.
For Maualuga, he was charged with misdemeanor assault after an employee at a downtown bar told police that the middle linebacker punched him in the face. The judge dismissed the case after neither Maualuga nor the bar employee wanted to pursue the matter. In the eyes of the law, this case never happened. The NFL, however, knows it did.
Maualuga might not get off as easy from the NFL, and he really shouldn't based on the league's history with repeat offenders. In February 2010, two years before this latest incident, he pleaded guilty to drunken driving but he successfully won his appeal of a one-game suspension.
Avoiding a suspension will be tougher this time and it doesn't matter that he avoided conviction. In fact, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Ben Roethlisberger two years ago when the Steelers quarterback wasn't arrested or charged with a crime.
For Maualuga, he was charged with misdemeanor assault after an employee at a downtown bar told police that the middle linebacker punched him in the face. The judge dismissed the case after neither Maualuga nor the bar employee wanted to pursue the matter. In the eyes of the law, this case never happened. The NFL, however, knows it did.
Cincinnati Bengals schedule analysis
April, 17, 2012
Apr 17
8:44
PM ET
By
Jamison Hensley | ESPN.com
Breakdown: Don't play that lack of respect card this year Who Dey nation. After not making a prime-time appearance last season, the Bengals were rewarded with three after a surprising run to the playoffs. The last time the Bengals had more prime-time games was 2007, when they had four.
Cincinnati opens the season on Monday night at Baltimore, plays a home Sunday night game against Pittsburgh on Oct. 21 and a Thursday night game at Philadelphia on Dec. 13. The most shocking part of the Bengals' schedule is that the return of Carson Palmer to Paul Brown Stadium on Nov. 25 isn't on national television.
The Bengals will find out where they stand in the AFC North early -- four division games are in the first seven weeks of the season. Cincinnati then goes nine weeks without facing an AFC North team until it finishes at Pittsburgh and home against Baltimore.
Complaint department: There really isn't much to complain about. Four of the Bengals' first six games are on the road. But that could also be considered the easy part of the schedule, with only one of those road games against a playoff team from last season. After playing at Baltimore, the Bengals travel to Washington, Jacksonville and Cleveland.
Sellout streak?: It's no secret that the Bengals have had trouble selling tickets. Only two home games last season weren't blacked out (and one was the result of a "buy one, get one free" promotion). But there's no excuse for a lack of sellouts this year. The Bengals have a three-game home stretch in the middle of the season when Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning come to town. If the Bengals can't pack the stadium for those games, there's a major problem in Cincinnati.
Bengals Regular-Season Schedule (All times Eastern)
Week 1: Monday, Sept. 10, at Baltimore, 7:00 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 16, Cleveland, 1:00 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, at Washington, 1:00 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 30, at Jacksonville, 4:05 PM
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 7, Miami, 1:00 PM
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 14, at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 21, Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 4, Denver, 1:00 PM
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 11, NY Giants, 1:00 PM
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 18, at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 25, Oakland, 1:00 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2, at San Diego, 4:15 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, Dallas, 1:00 PM
Week 15: Thursday, Dec. 13, at Philadelphia, 8:20 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 23, at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 30, Baltimore, 1:00 PM
Cincinnati opens the season on Monday night at Baltimore, plays a home Sunday night game against Pittsburgh on Oct. 21 and a Thursday night game at Philadelphia on Dec. 13. The most shocking part of the Bengals' schedule is that the return of Carson Palmer to Paul Brown Stadium on Nov. 25 isn't on national television.
The Bengals will find out where they stand in the AFC North early -- four division games are in the first seven weeks of the season. Cincinnati then goes nine weeks without facing an AFC North team until it finishes at Pittsburgh and home against Baltimore.
Complaint department: There really isn't much to complain about. Four of the Bengals' first six games are on the road. But that could also be considered the easy part of the schedule, with only one of those road games against a playoff team from last season. After playing at Baltimore, the Bengals travel to Washington, Jacksonville and Cleveland.
Sellout streak?: It's no secret that the Bengals have had trouble selling tickets. Only two home games last season weren't blacked out (and one was the result of a "buy one, get one free" promotion). But there's no excuse for a lack of sellouts this year. The Bengals have a three-game home stretch in the middle of the season when Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning come to town. If the Bengals can't pack the stadium for those games, there's a major problem in Cincinnati.
Bengals Regular-Season Schedule (All times Eastern)
Week 1: Monday, Sept. 10, at Baltimore, 7:00 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 16, Cleveland, 1:00 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, at Washington, 1:00 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 30, at Jacksonville, 4:05 PM
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 7, Miami, 1:00 PM
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 14, at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 21, Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 4, Denver, 1:00 PM
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 11, NY Giants, 1:00 PM
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 18, at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 25, Oakland, 1:00 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2, at San Diego, 4:15 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, Dallas, 1:00 PM
Week 15: Thursday, Dec. 13, at Philadelphia, 8:20 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 23, at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 30, Baltimore, 1:00 PM
Report: Ravens interested in Dennis Dixon
April, 16, 2012
Apr 16
10:55
AM ET
By
Jamison Hensley | ESPN.com
The Baltimore Ravens are among three teams interested in Steelers free-agent quarterback Dennis Dixon, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The St. Louis Rams and Denver Broncos are also in the running for Dixon, who is not expected to return to Pittsburgh.
The Ravens have been inconsistent in how they've addressed the backup quarterback position recently. In 2010, Baltimore spent $3.8 million on Marc Bulger to have veteran insurance behind Joe Flacco. In 2011, the Ravens went with rookie sixth-round pick Tyrod Taylor.
One reason why the Ravens could go with Bulger in 2010 was the uncapped year, but it's definitely a major philosophical switch to go from a playoff-tested quarterback in Bulger to a raw prospect like Taylor. Of course, Baltimore hasn't needed a backup, because Flacco has never missed a start in his four-year career (64 straight, the third-longest current streak in the NFL). But the Ravens' playoff chances would get decimated if Flacco got hurt, and the team had to turn to Taylor for an extended period.
Dixon, 27, the No. 3 quarterback last season for Pittsburgh, has made three career starts in his four seasons with the Steelers. He has a 2-1 record, with one touchdown and two interceptions. Dixon's first start came against the Ravens in 2009, when his interception in overtime set up the winning field goal.
Here are the backup quarterback situations for the rest of the AFC North:
BENGALS: Cincinnati is set with journeyman Bruce Gradkowski. When Andy Dalton was hurt in last year's season opener, Gradkowski rallied the Bengals to a 27-17 win at Cleveland.
BROWNS: At this point, the Browns are going with Seneca Wallace, the team's backup for the past two seasons. But the depth chart could get moved around if Cleveland drafts a quarterback in the early rounds. If the Browns don't take a quarterback, Wallace won't be competing with Colt McCoy for the starting job, the team said.
STEELERS: Besides Ben Roethlisberger, the only quarterbacks on the roster are Troy Smith and Jerrod Johnson. The Steelers likely will bring back Byron Leftwich or Charlie Batch. The favorite to return is Leftwich, who reportedly drew interest from the Colts.
The Ravens have been inconsistent in how they've addressed the backup quarterback position recently. In 2010, Baltimore spent $3.8 million on Marc Bulger to have veteran insurance behind Joe Flacco. In 2011, the Ravens went with rookie sixth-round pick Tyrod Taylor.
One reason why the Ravens could go with Bulger in 2010 was the uncapped year, but it's definitely a major philosophical switch to go from a playoff-tested quarterback in Bulger to a raw prospect like Taylor. Of course, Baltimore hasn't needed a backup, because Flacco has never missed a start in his four-year career (64 straight, the third-longest current streak in the NFL). But the Ravens' playoff chances would get decimated if Flacco got hurt, and the team had to turn to Taylor for an extended period.
Dixon, 27, the No. 3 quarterback last season for Pittsburgh, has made three career starts in his four seasons with the Steelers. He has a 2-1 record, with one touchdown and two interceptions. Dixon's first start came against the Ravens in 2009, when his interception in overtime set up the winning field goal.
Here are the backup quarterback situations for the rest of the AFC North:
BENGALS: Cincinnati is set with journeyman Bruce Gradkowski. When Andy Dalton was hurt in last year's season opener, Gradkowski rallied the Bengals to a 27-17 win at Cleveland.
BROWNS: At this point, the Browns are going with Seneca Wallace, the team's backup for the past two seasons. But the depth chart could get moved around if Cleveland drafts a quarterback in the early rounds. If the Browns don't take a quarterback, Wallace won't be competing with Colt McCoy for the starting job, the team said.
STEELERS: Besides Ben Roethlisberger, the only quarterbacks on the roster are Troy Smith and Jerrod Johnson. The Steelers likely will bring back Byron Leftwich or Charlie Batch. The favorite to return is Leftwich, who reportedly drew interest from the Colts.
Report: Wallace wants more than Fitzgerald
March, 22, 2012
Mar 22
9:03
AM ET
By
Jamison Hensley | ESPN.com
Restricted free agent Mike Wallace either wants to stay in Pittsburgh or has a really high opinion of himself.
Wallace According to the Sacramento Bee, the San Francisco 49ers inquired about Wallace during the first week of free agency but never pursued him because he is seeking a contract that surpasses the eight-year, $120 million deal that Larry Fitzgerald signed last year with the Cardinals.
If this report is accurate, this steep -- and unrealistic -- asking price will scare off any interested team and guarantees Wallace will be staying with the Steelers this season. No team (and there were other interested ones, according to the Sacramento Bee) is going to give that type of contract to Wallace and ship a first-round pick to the Steelers even if he is the best restricted free agent this year.
It seems crazy that Wallace would make such a demand. He's had two 1,000-yard seasons and went to one Pro Bowl. Fitzgerald has produced six 1,000-yard seasons and has gone to six Pro Bowls.
As I proposed last week, Wallace's worth should be between the contracts given to Vincent Jackson (five-year, $55.5 million deal that includes $26 million guaranteed) and DeSean Jackson (five years, maximum value of $51 million, including $15 million guaranteed).
No one is going to put Wallace in the same category as Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson.
At this point, there's really only one team that might be interested in pursuing Wallace and that's the Denver Broncos, who might want to upgrade their wide receiver group for recently signed quarterback Peyton Manning. But the Broncos won't be interested unless Wallace's price goes down.
The deadline to extend offer sheets to restricted free agents is April 20.
Wallace's reported high demands work in the Steelers' favor this year, but there is still some concern. Just ask quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Asked whether he's nervous about losing his leading receiver, Roethlisberger told WDVE radio in Pittsburgh on Wednesday: "Nervous isn't the word -- scared to death. I communicate with Mike. I wake up every day and I'm like, 'Mike, please don't go anywhere. I'm begging you.' I'm going to beg right now over the radio. Don't go anywhere, Mike."
Roethlisberger is the latest to urge Wallace to stay with the Steelers. Hines Ward did the same at his retirement news conference on Tuesday.
"He's someone we need to have here," Roethlisberger said. "I'll be disappointed if he goes somewhere [this year]. I've got a good feeling he's not. But I'm still begging every day and praying that he doesn't go anywhere."
(Special thanks to Neil Coolong, a friend of the AFC North blog, for passing this report along).
If this report is accurate, this steep -- and unrealistic -- asking price will scare off any interested team and guarantees Wallace will be staying with the Steelers this season. No team (and there were other interested ones, according to the Sacramento Bee) is going to give that type of contract to Wallace and ship a first-round pick to the Steelers even if he is the best restricted free agent this year.
It seems crazy that Wallace would make such a demand. He's had two 1,000-yard seasons and went to one Pro Bowl. Fitzgerald has produced six 1,000-yard seasons and has gone to six Pro Bowls.
As I proposed last week, Wallace's worth should be between the contracts given to Vincent Jackson (five-year, $55.5 million deal that includes $26 million guaranteed) and DeSean Jackson (five years, maximum value of $51 million, including $15 million guaranteed).
No one is going to put Wallace in the same category as Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson.
At this point, there's really only one team that might be interested in pursuing Wallace and that's the Denver Broncos, who might want to upgrade their wide receiver group for recently signed quarterback Peyton Manning. But the Broncos won't be interested unless Wallace's price goes down.
The deadline to extend offer sheets to restricted free agents is April 20.
Wallace's reported high demands work in the Steelers' favor this year, but there is still some concern. Just ask quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Asked whether he's nervous about losing his leading receiver, Roethlisberger told WDVE radio in Pittsburgh on Wednesday: "Nervous isn't the word -- scared to death. I communicate with Mike. I wake up every day and I'm like, 'Mike, please don't go anywhere. I'm begging you.' I'm going to beg right now over the radio. Don't go anywhere, Mike."
Roethlisberger is the latest to urge Wallace to stay with the Steelers. Hines Ward did the same at his retirement news conference on Tuesday.
"He's someone we need to have here," Roethlisberger said. "I'll be disappointed if he goes somewhere [this year]. I've got a good feeling he's not. But I'm still begging every day and praying that he doesn't go anywhere."
(Special thanks to Neil Coolong, a friend of the AFC North blog, for passing this report along).
The Seattle Seahawks owned the NFC West for years because their owner, Paul Allen, was so clearly superior to his peers in the division.
It was Allen who pushed through a stadium referendum precipitating his purchase of the team in the late 1990s. It was Allen's ownership that enabled the team to hire Mike Holmgren in 1999, another watershed moment for the franchise.
Those two owner-driven events set up the team for seven division titles during a 12-year period, including five in a row beginning in 2003.
Visions of Allen's Seahawks squirming while Peyton Manning visited the Arizona Cardinals over the weekend might not mean much if Manning signs outside the NFC West or agrees to visit Seattle after all. But with Arizona holding a clear edge over the Seahawks at this point in the process, the shrinking ownership gap in the division is worth our attention.
Allen hasn't necessarily slipped even though his fortune, once estimated to exceed $30 billion, has reportedly shrunk to less than half that amount. He remains the wealthiest NFL owner by a wide margin. He helped finance a state-of-the-art waterfront facility that opened in 2008. He gives football decision makers wide latitude and ample resources.
But with the Cardinals' Michael Bidwill and the San Francisco 49ers' Jed York securing new stadiums and winning division titles recently, the Seahawks' competitors have gained ground. Stan Kroenke's ascent in St. Louis has brightened the Rams' outlook as well.
For Arizona, getting Manning to visit was nice. Getting him to sign with the team would more emphatically validate the the Cardinals' progress as an organization.
Bidwill, like York, has a familial reputation to live down.
"(Bidwill) is hugely aware of our fan base and how his dad is viewed," a team source told ESPN's Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter over the weekend. "He came to work with this team to get the stadium built. It took him a long time to get that done, but he did. He is a driven young owner that wants to totally change this franchise's image."
Winning back-to-back division titles while making a Super Bowl appearance affirmed Bidwill's long-held stance that stadium revenue would change how the team could operate. But the Cardinals' 13-19 record over the past two seasons has lent credence to the idea that the team basically lucked into Kurt Warner's career revival.
Beating out John Elway and others for Manning would be another game-changer, comparable to the day Seattle landed Holmgren and, to an extent, when the 49ers secured Jim Harbaugh. Holmgren and Harbaugh were the hottest coaching candidates at the time. Manning, though coming off neck surgeries that might still threaten his career, outranks both in NFL history.
The Cardinals need him. They bet big on Kevin Kolb last offseason, and are running a fat deficit on the investment, with few promising signs. John Clayton's recent report about the team losing confidence in Kolb sounded ominous. Coach Ken Whisenhunt might still need to win the bet on Kolb, but the cost of losing it would disappear if Manning signed with the team.
Finding a quarterback requires taking chances. Manning would be the safest bet in NFL history without the neck surgeries. He still appears to be a safer gamble than putting down another $7 million to continue the relationship with Kolb, a payment that comes due at week's end. Paying Kolb in the absence of Manning would not necessarily prevent John Skelton from winning the starting job.
A year ago, the Kolb experiment gave the Cardinals an opportunity to find out whether Whisenhunt could identify and develop quarterbacks. To what degree had he shaped Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and, later, Warner in Arizona? That question becomes far less relevant if the Cardinals can close a deal with Manning.
Bidwill's father made a run at Joe Montana in 1993. This time, the Cardinals appear to have a legitimate chance. Times have changed, but by how much? Manning's decision will provide one measure.
It was Allen who pushed through a stadium referendum precipitating his purchase of the team in the late 1990s. It was Allen's ownership that enabled the team to hire Mike Holmgren in 1999, another watershed moment for the franchise.
[+] Enlarge
Kyle Terada/US PresswireLanding QB Peyton Manning would be a huge victory for Cardinals president Michael Bidwill, front, and coach Ken Whisenhunt.
Kyle Terada/US PresswireLanding QB Peyton Manning would be a huge victory for Cardinals president Michael Bidwill, front, and coach Ken Whisenhunt.Visions of Allen's Seahawks squirming while Peyton Manning visited the Arizona Cardinals over the weekend might not mean much if Manning signs outside the NFC West or agrees to visit Seattle after all. But with Arizona holding a clear edge over the Seahawks at this point in the process, the shrinking ownership gap in the division is worth our attention.
Allen hasn't necessarily slipped even though his fortune, once estimated to exceed $30 billion, has reportedly shrunk to less than half that amount. He remains the wealthiest NFL owner by a wide margin. He helped finance a state-of-the-art waterfront facility that opened in 2008. He gives football decision makers wide latitude and ample resources.
But with the Cardinals' Michael Bidwill and the San Francisco 49ers' Jed York securing new stadiums and winning division titles recently, the Seahawks' competitors have gained ground. Stan Kroenke's ascent in St. Louis has brightened the Rams' outlook as well.
For Arizona, getting Manning to visit was nice. Getting him to sign with the team would more emphatically validate the the Cardinals' progress as an organization.
Bidwill, like York, has a familial reputation to live down.
"(Bidwill) is hugely aware of our fan base and how his dad is viewed," a team source told ESPN's Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter over the weekend. "He came to work with this team to get the stadium built. It took him a long time to get that done, but he did. He is a driven young owner that wants to totally change this franchise's image."
Winning back-to-back division titles while making a Super Bowl appearance affirmed Bidwill's long-held stance that stadium revenue would change how the team could operate. But the Cardinals' 13-19 record over the past two seasons has lent credence to the idea that the team basically lucked into Kurt Warner's career revival.
Beating out John Elway and others for Manning would be another game-changer, comparable to the day Seattle landed Holmgren and, to an extent, when the 49ers secured Jim Harbaugh. Holmgren and Harbaugh were the hottest coaching candidates at the time. Manning, though coming off neck surgeries that might still threaten his career, outranks both in NFL history.
The Cardinals need him. They bet big on Kevin Kolb last offseason, and are running a fat deficit on the investment, with few promising signs. John Clayton's recent report about the team losing confidence in Kolb sounded ominous. Coach Ken Whisenhunt might still need to win the bet on Kolb, but the cost of losing it would disappear if Manning signed with the team.
Finding a quarterback requires taking chances. Manning would be the safest bet in NFL history without the neck surgeries. He still appears to be a safer gamble than putting down another $7 million to continue the relationship with Kolb, a payment that comes due at week's end. Paying Kolb in the absence of Manning would not necessarily prevent John Skelton from winning the starting job.
A year ago, the Kolb experiment gave the Cardinals an opportunity to find out whether Whisenhunt could identify and develop quarterbacks. To what degree had he shaped Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and, later, Warner in Arizona? That question becomes far less relevant if the Cardinals can close a deal with Manning.
Bidwill's father made a run at Joe Montana in 1993. This time, the Cardinals appear to have a legitimate chance. Times have changed, but by how much? Manning's decision will provide one measure.
Roethlisberger, Steelers pay tribute to Ward
March, 1, 2012
Mar 1
4:17
PM ET
By
Jamison Hensley | ESPN.com
Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is among the players who hated to hear that the team plans to release Hines Ward. He even called and left Ward a message to tell the franchise's leading receiver that he will miss him.
"Hines is Black and Gold," Roethlisberger told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Hines will always be a Steeler."
Roethlisberger's comments carry a lot of weight considering the two went through some rough patches. It was only two seasons ago when Ward expressed surprise on national television that Roethlisberger didn't play because of a concussion, saying the locker room was split 50-50 on whether he should suit up.
But Roethlisberger has obviously moved past that.
"He was Hines Ward, one of the best receivers in the game," Roethlisberger said. "I got a chance to be in the huddle with him and Jerome Bettis. He made me better. It didn't matter if I threw a good ball or a bad ball, 99 percent of the time he'd catch it, whether it was with one hand, off a helmet, or off a defender. He made me a much better quarterback and player. That's why I wanted to call him and thank him. If I see him I'll tell him."
The Steelers teammates expressed how much Ward meant to them through Twitter on Thursday:
Antonio Brown, wide receiver: [Definitely] enjoyed playing with @mvp86hinesward learned a lot ! Was a great mentor for me! You define a "Steeler" Woe respect n luv ! #HOF
LaMarr Woodley, linebacker: Hines Ward is not only 1 of the best WRs ever, but also a great leader & even better friend.. fortunate i had the chance 2 play 5 yrs w/him
Ike Taylor, cornerback: Toughest (WR) I've seen play the game One thing we will all remember the most is his SMILE SB (40) MVP Future HOF #86 HINES WARD
Cam Heyward, defensive end: I had a pleasure of getting to meet hines ward and he was a class act from day one. A true legend in his own right. Thank you did everything
"Hines is Black and Gold," Roethlisberger told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Hines will always be a Steeler."
Roethlisberger's comments carry a lot of weight considering the two went through some rough patches. It was only two seasons ago when Ward expressed surprise on national television that Roethlisberger didn't play because of a concussion, saying the locker room was split 50-50 on whether he should suit up.
But Roethlisberger has obviously moved past that.
"He was Hines Ward, one of the best receivers in the game," Roethlisberger said. "I got a chance to be in the huddle with him and Jerome Bettis. He made me better. It didn't matter if I threw a good ball or a bad ball, 99 percent of the time he'd catch it, whether it was with one hand, off a helmet, or off a defender. He made me a much better quarterback and player. That's why I wanted to call him and thank him. If I see him I'll tell him."
The Steelers teammates expressed how much Ward meant to them through Twitter on Thursday:
Antonio Brown, wide receiver: [Definitely] enjoyed playing with @mvp86hinesward learned a lot ! Was a great mentor for me! You define a "Steeler" Woe respect n luv ! #HOF
LaMarr Woodley, linebacker: Hines Ward is not only 1 of the best WRs ever, but also a great leader & even better friend.. fortunate i had the chance 2 play 5 yrs w/him
Ike Taylor, cornerback: Toughest (WR) I've seen play the game One thing we will all remember the most is his SMILE SB (40) MVP Future HOF #86 HINES WARD
Cam Heyward, defensive end: I had a pleasure of getting to meet hines ward and he was a class act from day one. A true legend in his own right. Thank you did everything

