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Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Chicago Bears

Key free agents: Tight end Kellen Davis, running back Matt Forte (franchise), cornerback Corey Graham, quarterback Caleb Hanie, defensive end Israel Idonije, cornerback Tim Jennings, quarterback Josh McCown, safety Brandon Meriweather and receiver Roy Williams.

Where they stand: The Bears will have the most salary-cap space among NFC North teams, upwards of $30 million, and have plenty of potential uses for it. Quarterback Jay Cutler needs more targets in the downfield passing game, whether it's at the receiver or tight end position. And new general manager Phil Emery must start restocking a defense led by four players more than 30 years old: Linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, defensive end Julius Peppers and cornerback Charles Tillman.

What to expect: It's widely believed the Bears will be in the running for free-agent receiver Vincent Jackson. But Jackson's price tag could be steep and no one knows if Emery will prove to be a big spender. It seems likely he will re-sign Davis, and Emery should also save some of his cap space to extend Forte's contract. Secondary receiver targets could include Marques Colston. Bears fans are hoping the team will pursue defensive end Mario Williams, but it's hard to imagine the Bears budgeting for Williams two years after breaking their bank on Peppers.

Detroit Lions

Key free agents: Defensive end Cliff Avril (franchise), left tackle Jeff Backus, safety Chris Harris, quarterback Shaun Hill, linebacker DeAndre Levy (restricted), running back Maurice Morris, running back Kevin Smith, quarterback Drew Stanton, linebacker Stephen Tulloch and cornerback Eric Wright.

Where they stand: The Lions are tight against the salary cap after franchising Avril and aren't likely to be big spenders on the free-agent market. They could relieve the situation by reaching long-term agreements with Avril and/or receiver Calvin Johnson, who has a $22 million cap figure for 2012. Tulloch made a big impact last season after signing a one-year deal, but so far the Lions' attention has turned elsewhere.

What to expect: The Lions' best-case scenario is to keep their 2011 core together without mortgaging their future relative to the salary cap. That would mean getting Tulloch re-signed to preserve the linebacker group they upgraded last season by signing him and veteran Justin Durant, moves that allowed Levy to play on the outside. Hill seems likely to re-sign as Matthew Stafford's backup, while Stanton might test the free-agent waters to see if he has a chance to do better than third on a team's depth chart.

Green Bay Packers

Key free agents: Cornerback Jarrett Bush, quarterback Matt Flynn, running back Ryan Grant and center Scott Wells.

Where they stand: The Packers took care of a big challenge by signing tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year contract last month. They will let Flynn depart for a possible starting job elsewhere and it appears Grant will test the free-agent market. Discussions with Wells haven't led to an agreement, but the Packers often go to the final moments before reaching a deal. There are no obvious internal replacements for Wells, making his return a priority.

What to expect: The Packers will have some flexibility with the salary cap, but general manager Ted Thompson's aversion to veteran free agency is well known. It's been three years since he signed a veteran unrestricted free agent in the offseason. The Packers have needs at defensive line, outside linebacker and possibly at center if Wells leaves. But let's put it this way: Thompson's strong preference is to find depth and future replacements in the draft, not on other teams' rosters.

Minnesota Vikings

Key free agents: Safety Husain Abdullah, receiver Devin Aromashodu, receiver Greg Camarillo, defensive lineman Fred Evans, defensive lineman Letroy Guion, linebacker E.J. Henderson, linebacker Erin Henderson, safety Tyrell Johnson, quarterback Sage Rosenfels, cornerback Benny Sapp and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.

Where they stand: The Vikings seem poised for a major roster overhaul in their first offseason since Rick Spielman was promoted to general manager. Players like Shiancoe, E.J. Henderson, Camarillo and Johnson all seem poised to move on. There aren't many positions on the team that appear secure.

What to expect: If the Vikings don't plan to draft USC left tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3 overall next month, the first clue will be if they pursue a free-agent left tackle. That seems unlikely. But they'll need to combine their draft with at least a few veteran free agents if they intend to compete for a playoff spot in 2012. Cornerback could be a point of focus, where Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan are among those available. Another could be receiver. The Vikings had major interest in Jackson two years ago.

The Minnesota Vikings will attempt to slow down the New Orleans Saints' passing game with a cornerback duo of Asher Allen and Benny Sapp. Former starter Cedric Griffin has been benched, and it's not clear what role he'll play Sunday.

As we noted earlier in the week, the Vikings' pass defense hasn't been, uh, good this season. They haven't intercepted a pass in eight games, tying an NFL record.

Griffin has struggled to return from his second torn anterior cruciate ligament. Sapp re-joined the team last month.

We'll keep you posted.

A few thoughts on another loss for the NFC North's last-place team:

What it means: Down 17-0 at halftime, the Minnesota Vikings made it interesting but ultimately absorbed their ninth loss of the season. It's the franchise's first 2-9 start since 1962.

HarvinWatch: With tailback Adrian Peterson sidelined by a high ankle sprain, receiver/running back Percy Harvin was the team's lone remaining offensive playmaker. And Harvin made two huge plays to give the Vikings a chance in this game, hauling in a 39-yard touchdown pass on fourth-and-13 in the fourth quarter and also returning a kickoff 104 yards to the Atlanta Falcons' 3-yard line with six minutes, 28 seconds remaining. Harvin caught eight passes for 95 yards and, including special teams, accounted for 200 all-purpose yards.

Late-game questions here: The final seven minutes in this game will be hotly debated among Vikings fans. Here are the primary questions: Even without Peterson, were the Vikings justified in using Harvin on two consecutive inside running plays on the goal line after his kickoff return? Should coach Leslie Frazier have challenged Harvin's second run, in which he appeared to have crossed the plane on second effort? Down by 10 points, should the Vikings have taken an easy field goal rather than go for a touchdown on fourth down? And should they have given the ball to tailback Toby Gerhart, who hasn't been much of an effective short-yardage runner in his career?

Opinion here: My quick reaction to those questions goes as following. I'm fine with using Harvin. He was the Vikings' best player Sunday. Frazier would have had nothing to lose by challenging the ruling on third down. I would have taken a field goal, but either way you need a field goal and a touchdown to force overtime. But handing the ball to Gerhart on fourth down, especially with a quarterback in Christian Ponder who excels at plays that give him a pass-run option on the outside, was the least defensible of the decisions we saw from Frazier and offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave.

Injury report: Already playing without safety Husain Abdullah and cornerbacks Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook, the Vikings lost safety Tyrell Johnson (hamstring) and cornerback Asher Allen (shoulder) during the game. I thought their defense played well considering they had Benny Sapp, on the street two weeks ago, playing at one cornerback spot and rookie Mistral Raymond at safety. The Vikings also lost long snapper Cullen Loeffler to a back injury. Defensive end Jared Allen did a flawless job as Loefller's replacement and even made a special teams tackle after his first snap.

What's next: The Vikings will host the Denver Broncos next Sunday at the Metrodome. Remember, the game has been moved from CBS to FOX. As of last week, the team had more than 5,000 tickets to sell to avoid a local television blackout.

The Miami Dolphins (0-1) will try to get in the win column Sunday against the Houston Texans (1-0). Here are Miami's biggest reasons for hope and concern in Week 2:

Reason for hope: Chad Henne/offense

Was it a one-game wonder? No one knows for sure. But quarterback Chad Henne and Miami's offense looked pretty good in a Week 1 loss to the New England Patriots. Despite some struggles on third down and in the red zone, Miami registered 488 total yards. Henne threw for a career-high 416 yards and produced three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). Miami can win its share of games if Henne continues to play at this level. Miami also is getting healthier at running back. Rookie Daniel Thomas and fullback Charles Clay might both return Sunday from hamstring injuries. More depth could help spell Reggie Bush, who played every snap last week.

Reason for concern: Pass defense

Miami's defense was pretty good last season. The Dolphins ranked sixth in yards allowed in 2010. But I don't know if this group could play any worse than it did Monday night against New England. Yes, Tom Brady (517 yards, four touchdowns) was amazing. But Miami's missed tackles, blown coverages and lack of pass rush cannot be ignored. Miami made one casualty from that performance. Former Dolphins cornerback Benny Sapp was released and they added veteran corner Will Allen. Coming into the season, I considered Miami's defense the strength of the team. The Dolphins don't appear to be a team built to win high-scoring shootouts. It's going to be hard for Miami to avoid a slow start if the defense can't quickly round into form.

Just a couple days after getting torched by the New England Patriots, the Miami Dolphins brought back a familiar face to the secondary with cornerback Will Allen. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Allen agreed to a one-year contract.

Here are some thoughts on the signing.

• Allen was released before the regular season when the Dolphins cut their roster down to 53 players. But Allen remained on Miami's short list. The move was made at the time more for financial reasons than performance-based ones. Allen had a history of injuries and the Dolphins did not want to guarantee his $1.5 million salary in 2011.
• Allen, when healthy, is an upgrade over Benny Sapp. Other than a tipped ball that led to an interception, Sapp struggled against New England. He gave up several plays and was the victim during Patriots receiver Wes Welker's 99-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins released Sapp on Tuesday.
• Allen should be able to make an immediate impact. He was with the Dolphins all through training camp and spent the past five years with the team. He knows the playbook well. The Dolphins are looking for answers. So don't be surprised if Allen plays an important role behind starting corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis Sunday against the Houston Texans.

Cornerback Benny Sapp has been released by the Miami Dolphins, Sapp's agent tweeted Tuesday evening. This isn't a major surprise after Miami gave up 517 passing yards to New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady on "Monday Night Football."

Sapp was the victim on Patriots receiver Wes Welker's 99-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. That play helped seal the game for New England (1-0).

Meanwhile, the Dolphins (0-1) are searching for answers defensively. They have another strong passing team -- the Houston Texans -- coming to town in Week 2.

Monday on the AFC East blog, dropped interceptions were a hot topic.

Today, I want to broach a totally different subject: dropped interceptions.

We already know New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez threw the most passes defenders dropped.

But which defender dropped the most? He's from the AFC East, too.

Football Outsiders research shows Miami Dolphins right cornerback Sean Smith tied for the league lead with five dropped interceptions last year even though he didn't re-assume his starting role until Week 9.

Smith's proxy, Jason Allen, also dropped two, giving the Dolphins seven at that position alone.

The NFL average for an entire defense was 6.3 dropped interceptions last season. The Dolphins had 19 of them. The Green Bay Packers were next with 14.

Dolphins free safety Chris Clemons dropped three interceptions, tying him for sixth in the league. Cornerback Benny Sapp dropped two. Defensive ends Phillip Merling and Kendall Langford, outside linebacker Koa Misi, inside linebacker Karlos Dansby, cornerback Nolan Carroll and safeties Reshad Jones and Tyrone Culver had one apiece.

The Dolphins actually snagged 11 interceptions. Only three teams recorded fewer.

Think defensive coordinator Mike Nolan tore out his hair much?

The other three AFC East teams combined didn't have nearly as many dropped interceptions as the Dolphins did.

In fact, the rest of the AFC East had just as many as Smith, Allen, Clemons and Sapp alone.

The Jets and Buffalo Bills each had five dropped interceptions. Strong safety Donte Whitner was the only defender on either team with two. Bills cornerback Drayton Florence didn't have any drops one season after leading the league with five.

The New England Patriots were incredibly fortuitous when it came to interceptions. They had 25 picks, but dropped only two: inside linebacker Jerod Mayo and cornerback Darius Butler.

Sports labor squabbles often are described as billionaires arguing with millionaires over money.

While that's a catchy rhyme that sums up fan frustration, the phrase is not entirely true.

Inspired by a blog entry from the minister of all things AFC South, Paul Kuharsky, I looked at NFL Players Association files to count up the number of AFC East players scheduled for $1 million base salaries in 2011.

Granted, up-front bonuses and incentives can make base salaries misleading. But base salaries are the only figures that create a common ground, player for player.

You'll see a vast majority of NFL players make much less than $1 million a year. Although many will make seven figures before they walk away from the game, careers are short and treacherous. They'll never see that kind of cash again for the rest of their lives.

That's why they're fighting for every dollar now.

Of the 226 players under contract in the AFC East, only 62 of them (27.4 percent) will make base salaries of $1 million or more.

The NFLPA hasn't acknowledged any franchise tags that have been signed. Those players are marked with an asterisk and not factored into the totals.

Buffalo Bills

• Receiver Lee Evans, $3.275 million
• Cornerback Terrence McGee, $3.2 million
• Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, $3.195 million
• Defensive end Spencer Johnson, $3 million
• Outside linebacker Shawne Merriman, $2.75 million
• Defensive end Dwan Edwards, $2.6 million
• Center Geoff Hangartner, $2.55 million
• Outside linebacker Chris Kelsay, $2 million
• Running back Fred Jackson, $1.75 million
• Defensive lineman Kyle Williams, $1.75 million
• Kicker Rian Lindell, $1.45 million
• Punter Brian Moorman, $1.425 million
• Cornerback Reggie Corner, $1.2 million
• Receiver Steve Johnson, $1.2 million
• Safety Bryan Scott, $1.15 million
• Linebacker Andra Davis, $1.1 million
• Receiver Roscoe Parrish, $1.025 million
• Safety George Wilson, $1.025 million
• Cornerback Leodis McKelvin, $1 million

Base salaries of $1 million or more: 19

Players under contract: 54

Percentage of roster making $1 million or more: 35.2

Miami Dolphins

• Nose tackle Paul Soliai, $12.47 million*
• Tackle Jake Long, $11.2 million
• Receiver Brandon Marshall, $6.5 million
• Tackle Vernon Carey, $4.15 million
• Safety Yeremiah Bell, $3.7 million
• Defensive end Randy Starks, $3.625 million
• Inside linebacker Karlos Dansby, $2.7 million
• Inside linebacker Channing Crowder, $2.5 million
• Tight end Anthony Fasano, $1.9 million
• Cornerback Benny Sapp, $1.9 million
• Inside linebacker Tim Dobbins, $1.7 million
• Cornerback Will Allen, $1.5 million
• Safety Tyrone Culver, $1.25 million
• Fullback Lousaka Polite, $1.25 million
• Receiver Davone Bess, $1.013 million
• Kicker Dan Carpenter, $1.005 million

Base salaries of $1 million or more: 15

Players under contract: 55

Percentage of roster making $1 million or more: 27.3

New England Patriots

• Quarterback Tom Brady, $5.75 million
• Cornerback Leigh Bodden, $3.9 million
• Tackle Nick Kaczur, $3.4 million
• Defensive end Ty Warren, $3.1 million
• Center Dan Koppen, $2.9 million
• Safety James Sanders, $2.8 million
• Tight end Alge Crumpler, $2.4 million
• Outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain, $2.3 million
• Receiver Deion Branch, $2.2 million
• Receiver Wes Welker, $2.15 million
• Kicker Stephen Gostkowski, $1.7 million
• Cornerback Jonathan Wilhite, $1.2 million
• Offensive lineman Dan Connolly, $1.025 million
• Inside linebacker Gary Guyton, $1 million

Base salaries of $1 million or more: 14

Players under contract: 60

Percentage of roster making $1 million or more: 23.3

New York Jets

• Quarterback Mark Sanchez, $14.75 million
• Inside linebacker David Harris, $10.1 million*
• Cornerback Darrelle Revis, $6 million
• Tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, $5.615 million
• Inside linebacker Bart Scott, $4.9 million
• Outside linebacker Calvin Pace, $3.855 million
• Outside linebacker Bryan Thomas, $3.2 million
• Guard Brandon Moore, $2.75 million
• Running back LaDainian Tomlinson, $2.425 million
• Center Nick Mangold, $2.26 million
• Defensive end Mike DeVito, $2.125 million
• Safety Jim Leonhard, $1.95 million
• Receiver Jerricho Cotchery, $1.8 million
• Defensive tackle Sione Pouha, $1.28 million
• Quarterback Mark Brunell, $1.25 million

Base salaries of $1 million or more: 14

Players under contract: 57

Percentage of roster making $1 million or more: 24.6

A few thoughts on the Dolphins' 22-14 win against the Bengals:

What it means: The Dolphins remained undefeated through four road games and pulled within a game of -- at least -- second place despite more offensive problems. The New York Jets were shut out at home and slipped to 5-2. The New England Patriots played at 4:15 p.m.

Red-zone trend: The Dolphins got inside the Bengals' 25-yard line five times, but managed only one touchdown, a 1-yard Ricky Williams run in the fourth quarter.

Carpenter on fire: Miami's inability to score touchdowns meant another big day for kicker Dan Carpenter. For the second straight week, he converted five attempts to keep Miami in the game. He made a 54-yarder at the end of the first half to pull Miami within two points.

Clutch play: Sean Smith, who lost his starting right cornerback job to Jason Allen just before the season started, recorded his first NFL interception to kill a 15-play Bengals drive at the Dolphins' 7-yard line late in the fourth quarter.

Defensive containment: The Dolphins didn't record a sack or force a fumble. They had only one tackle for a loss. Their leading tackler was slot corner Benny Sapp. But they kept the Bengals in check. Bengals running back Cedric Benson averaged 3.5 yards a carry. Carson Palmer passed for only 156 yards and completed less than 50 percent of his passes.

What's next: The Dolphins will visit M&T Stadium to play the Baltimore Ravens, who will be coming off their bye.

The secondary has to cover better. The pass rush has to help by hurrying quarterbacks more often or getting them off rhythm.

Certainly the personnel deserves a lion’s share of blame for what’s wrong with the Houston Texans so far.

The players are the ones who compose the league’s 32nd-ranked pass defense, after all. They are the one’s giving up an average of 329.6 passing yards a game and 8.34 yards per pass attempt. They are the ones quarterbacks are tossing it over and between while mounting a gaudy combined passer rating of 104.0.

Still, they aren’t the only culprits here.

Coach Gary Kubiak and general manager Rick Smith crafted this roster. When they trimmed it on cut day, they decided the Kiddie Corners -- starters Kareem Jackson and Glover Quin, nickel guy Brice McCain and backup Sherrick McManis -- would suffice.

The formula, however, counted on a few things that haven’t happened yet:

• Quick and steady growth by the corners.
• An improved pass rush that would force quarterbacks to hurry.
• A high-scoring offense that would mean it was OK if the opponent could mount yards and points.

After two weeks, I thought it was too early to worry. Now, however, the team still doesn’t get a check-mark on any of those.

This leaves a stand-up guy like Quin saying: “If you can’t stop it, they’re going to continue to do it. That gives us a chance to make a bunch of plays in the pass game and put on film and show the league you can’t just sit there and throw the ball on us. But it’s going to take more than one game to stop the pass until we weather the storm and get out of it.”

Let’s circle back and take on those three issues one at a time.

1) The corners are struggling, with first-rounder Jackson topping the list. It seems the Texans are asking a lot of him awfully soon. Maybe it hardens him quickly and we see a growth spurt.

In the meantime, however, when they want to scale him back as they did Sunday in the home blowout at the hands of the Giants, the alternative is to use McCain as the second corner, with McManis, a fifth-round rookie, in the nickel package.

I had no problem with the team admitting Fred Bennett and Jacques Reeves were no longer useful and letting them go. But at some point after they decided to let Dunta Robinson walk (he wasn’t worth the money) and they failed to land Leigh Bodden (he may have used them to secure a deal in New England), they needed to add a veteran with the potential to be a useful reserve who can at least calm panic and be average.

Who? I don’t know. But players like Walt Harris, Ellis Hobbs, Lito Sheppard and Benny Sapp changed teams and have roles where they are. Rod Hood might have been the same sort of guy had he not gotten hurt.

One of them or someone else could have provided more than Karl Paymah, the current veteran on the bench who’s still learning the system. You need a guy who can fill in if the kids need a break and can be a resource to them -- though Quin said talking to a veteran isn’t such a huge help, that young guys simply need to learn through experience.

Barring injuries, I think it’s an architectural mistake when a team doesn’t have a reasonable mix of youth and experience at a position group. This qualifies as that.

Smith disagrees.

“I can’t tell you that I have ever really sat down and said, ‘Gosh, we’ve got all young guys in this group, we need a veteran,’” he said. “Because if all the young guys are playing well, you don’t need a veteran. It’s difficult to look at it that way. ...”

“When you make a decision to go young, particularly in the secondary, you do that with the full awareness that there are going to be some growing pains. We certainly are experiencing some of those. But you do that because you are betting on the upside. And you know once you learn those lessons and get through some of those tough experiences you’re going to have a group of players that is capable of playing together for a while at a high level. I believe they’ll answer the call and we’ll play good defense.”

Players want to prove that Smith and Kubiak did the right thing, Quin said.

“Those guys see something or saw something that they felt like, ‘We’re going to go in this direction and it’s going to be good for us,’” Quin said. “So I don’t feel like just because we started off the season and we’re last, this was a bad decision. We’ve got to play better and make it a great decision. They stuck their necks out for us, now we have to go out and perform for them.”

2) The rush got only one addition of note, tackle Earl Mitchell, a third-round pick. Connor Barwin, a rush-specialist end, was lost for the season with an injury suffered opening day, which hurt as he was in line to be the most improved player on the team.

But the Kubiak-Smith duo doesn’t appear to have done enough here either, expecting patience would pay off with growth that we simply haven’t seen.

They hope Mark Anderson or Adewale Ogunleye can catch on to what they are doing and ultimately help replace Barwin. A second rushing force to go with Mario Williams is crucial, and a better rush would offer a lot of relief to the defensive backs.

The Texans have faced very good quarterbacks so far.

Still, according to ESPN Stats & Information, they have thrown 147 passes against the Texans when they’ve rushed just four defenders, completing 111 of them for a 75.5 percentage and 1,352 yards. Those are the highest number in the league in each of those categories.

With a four-man rush, the Texans have given up eight touchdowns, a 110.1 passer rating and recorded only four sacks.

For context: The Tennessee Titans have faced 10 fewer pass attempts against their standard pressure and have 10 more sacks than Houston in those situations.

“I think Mario Williams has been great,” said Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. “Fulfilling all of his vast and amazing potential. But the rest of the crew is letting him and their terrible pass defense down.”

3) It was reasonable to expect that the Texans, who felt they’d made great strides in balancing out the offense and running in the red zone, would improve from 10th in scoring a year ago. Overly reliant on the pass, the 2009 Texans averaged just more than 24 points a game.

Matt Schaub’s got enough on his plate with his own struggles, which include an adjustment to coordinator Rick Dennison and a balky ankle for Andre Johnson.

Now as the leader of the offense, he sees his counterparts slinging the ball all over the field and has to be feeling more pressure than he should to get some crooked numbers on his side of the scoreboard.

With no major personnel change, the team’s gotten a touch less than that while allowing nearly a touchdown more a game. It’s hit 30 points in three wins.

But in two hard-to-swallow blowouts, the Texans' offense struggled. It didn't get a touchdown against Dallas until under two minutes were left. It didn’t find the end zone against the Giants until the third quarter.

“We’ve hit a couple of rough patches, but that’s expected,” Smith said. “I’ve got total confidence in our guys and that we’ll make plays and continue to play good on offense.”

Houston’s been outscored 78-40 in the first half. The offense can do more to keep the Texans in a tough game.

I'm not sure how you reacted to the Minnesota Vikings' acquisition of receiver Greg Camarillo. But here's where I landed: He's better than what they had before. And when you're uncertain when -- or if -- two of your top receivers will resume playing, that's all you can hope for.

Camarillo joins free agent Javon Walker as the Vikings' emergency plan for the absence of Sidney Rice (hip) and Percy Harvin (migraines). Rice is expected to miss half of the season after undergoing surgery Monday, and while Harvin was on the practice field Wednesday, he was mostly standing to the side. His status remains uncertain at best.

Camarillo is a classic possession receiver who caught 105 passes during the past two seasons with the Dolphins. Vikings fans should consider him similar to the since-departed Bobby Wade, with better hands but slower feet. In fact, according to Football Outsiders, Camarillo didn't drop a pass in 73 opportunities last season.

Here's how Scouts Inc. evaluated him before the season:

Camarillo is a good but not great athlete for the position. He plays with good balance and agility and plays the game under control. He does not have top-end speed and is more quick than he is fast. A possession receiver, Camarillo is an excellent route runner who can separate because he can plant and cut well at the top of his patterns. He is not a real threat after the catch. He is a good down field blocker. He is a tough and competitive receiver who wins by being precise in everything he does.

For now, I'm guessing Camarillo fits as a No. 3 receiver behind Bernard Berrian and, eventually, Harvin. He has a fascinating story as a player who has exceeded every limitation of his physical skills. My AFC East colleague Tim Graham wrote a wonderful piece on him two years ago. An excerpt:

Chances are, at least one person in your family is every bit the athlete Greg Camarillo is.

He is listed at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds. He ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash at his pro workout day before the draft. He wears size medium gloves.

Drive toward the illuminated light stanchions in your town on a Friday night and look through the chain-link fence. You'll see high school players who fit Camarillo's general description.

Those kids could play in the NFL, too. They almost certainly won't. If it was that easy, then Camarillo's story wouldn't be considered exceptional.

"I'm still amazed by it sometimes," Camarillo said while hunkered over a plastic plate of barbeque chicken, rice and beans at his stall in the Miami Dolphins locker room. "I wasn't supposed to be here.

"Pretty much every step of my journey I wasn't supposed to take the next step. Odds were against me. That's how my athletic career has been. I've always been the underdog, and I kind of like that."

Camarillo came at a modest cost; the Viking shipped out reserve cornerback Benny Sapp to get him. Sapp was the team's nickel back last year and started seven games, but he seemed buried on the depth chart this summer. No official announcement has been made, but Sapp wasn't on the Vikings' practice field this morning. I suppose it's always possible he was working out inside.

ESPN.com NFL Power Ranking (pre-camp): 3

MANKATO, Minn. -- The question typically follows The Question. After Minnesotans ask, "Is Favre going to play?" they almost always follow with this one: "How does the rest of the team look?"

In a sign of what has been a wild summer already, the former is much easier to answer than the latter. Quarterback Brett Favre still seems likely to re-join the team later this month, but his once-and-future teammates missed so many training camp practices that it was nearly impossible to gauge the state of the team. Pro Bowl receiver Sidney Rice missed all 24 practices because of a mysterious hip injury. Receiver Percy Harvin (funeral/migraines) missed 21, tailback Adrian Peterson (hamstring) sat out 16, center John Sullivan (leg) was significantly limited in 20 and right guard Anthony Herrera (back) missed seven.

In all, more than half of the Vikings' offensive starters missed a majority of training camp. It might prove a manageable total for a team that has returned nearly intact from the one that advanced to the NFC Championship Game, but the injuries and indecision conspired to make for some nervous days at Minnesota State University, Mankato.

Coach Brad Childress did his best to weather what he termed a minor storm, but his skill for finding the bright side has surely been tested.

"People ask me if this is the most number of players that I can remember sitting out," Childress said. "No, it's not. I read the [news] clips. Philadelphia, they had 14 guys sitting out at one point. I guess [the media] is the one that has to determine whether it's the key guys or not. As the mother hen, I would like them here taking every turn and taking everything. The downside is they're not getting those turns. But the upside, and I have to look at the upside, is you have other players who are getting elevated reps."

Indeed, the Vikings will have the most well-trained junior varsity team in the NFC North. The state of their varsity team, however, remains unknown.

THREE HOT ISSUES

1. To what extent did Favre's uncertainty impact the rest of the team's preparation? Most players experienced a similar drama last season, and it doesn't appear that many are fretting his ultimate decision or are distracted by the indecision. But that's largely because they all expect him to return, and it was telling when tight end Visanthe Shiancoe blurted that a surprise retirement "would be a blow to the team." Not coincidentally, a muzzled Shiancoe has hardly been heard from since.

Another respected veteran, cornerback Antoine Winfield, said: "We are all hopeful that he comes back. It would be nice to spend another season with him, but at this point we don't know. But either way, it's not going to make my job any easier or harder. I still have to go out there and perform and make as many plays as I can."

As far as on the field, history trumps intuition. It makes sense to suggest that an offense is behind for as long as its quarterback stays away. But Favre's remarkable mid-August adjustment last season makes it difficult to make that argument.

2. Have the Vikings done enough to fortify their secondary? Starting right cornerback Cedric Griffin is still recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament, and the Vikings have opened his job up to four players: Lito Sheppard, Asher Allen, Benny Sapp and rookie Chris Cook. Sheppard makes the most sense as a short-term starter, but Cook was impressive on every level in training camp.

Cook displayed sophisticated cover skills, enough speed to stay with most receivers and, at 6-foot-2, an imposing physical presence. Sheppard has held on to his first-team job, but it could be a matter of time before Cook displaces him.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have created a legitimate competition at strong safety between incumbent Tyrell Johnson and second-year player Jamarca Sanford. If all things are equal, I'm guessing the Vikings will favor Johnson, a high second-round draft pick in 2008. But Sanford is a live wire, a strong hitter and won't go quietly.

Coaches believe Johnson has responded well to the challenge, but they want to see it translate into more plays -- big tackles, interceptions, forced fumbles -- during preseason games.

3. Is there a connection between Favre's indecision and the lengthy absences of Rice, Harvin and Peterson? I can't tell you how often I've heard that question in the past week or so. It comes down to whether players resent the double standard Favre has enjoyed since the end of last season, and if some of his most prominent teammates are passively protesting. All I can say is that no overt evidence exists to support that charge.

I agree that it seemed suspicious when the Vikings' three top skill players all came up with reasons to miss most of training camp. Conspiracy theories are great, but in the end that's all they are -- theories. The most important fact is there is every reason to believe all three players will be ready to play when the regular season begins.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

When middle linebacker E.J. Henderson first fractured his left femur last December, initial reports suggested he would need a year to recover. That timetable suggested that Henderson wouldn't return to the field, if at all, before the 2011 season. Given his age (30) and history of significant injuries, you wondered if his career was over. But Henderson has cut his recovery time in half and appears on his way to re-claiming the starting job in time for the Sept. 9 season opener at New Orleans. By the second week of camp, Henderson was taking all of the first-team repetitions while his understudy, Jasper Brinkley, was pushed back to the second team. Considering the titanium rod that holds Henderson's leg in place, such a quick return would be nothing short of a miracle.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT

Ever since the Vikings made him a second-round draft pick in April, Toby Gerhart has figured as the heir to Chester Taylor's vacated role as the No. 2 tailback. But when the Vikings broke camp Thursday, Albert Young was clearly ahead of Gerhart on the depth chart. There is plenty of time for that order to change, but however you look at it, Gerhart had a tough camp. He somehow incurred the wrath of a number of defensive veterans; nose tackle Pat Williams and defensive end Ray Edwards both took their shots at him during practice. Perhaps it was just a visible portion of the NFL toughening process, but there's no doubt Gerhart has some climbing to do before the season begins.

OBSERVATION DECK

• Icon SMITarvaris Jackson played only a handful of snaps in 2009 but would be the starter if Favre retires.
  There is no doubt that Tarvaris Jackson, and not Sage Rosenfels, is the No. 2 quarterback and will be the starter if Favre ultimately decides not to play. Jackson has developed a realistic mentality after living through various incarnations of FavreWatch the past three years, and as he does every summer, he threw some tantalizing passes during individual camp drills. But there is a big difference between unleashing 60-yard ropes in practice and playing quarterback at an NFL level during games, and Jackson remains somewhere in the middle.
• Rosenfels reportedly struggled during the early stages of camp, but he looked decent during the three days I watched practice. I once thought Rosenfels would be traded or released if Favre returned, but now I'm not so sure. To this point, there is no way the Vikings could choose rookie Joe Webb over Rosenfels for the No. 3 job -- and keep a straight face. Frankly, Webb flashed some athletic skills but otherwise looked overwhelmed during camp. There is no way he is ready to be on an NFL roster. One option: Keep two quarterbacks on the active roster and put Webb on the practice squad.
• Although the Vikings are splitting kicking duties between Ryan Longwell and Rhys Lloyd in the preseason opener at St. Louis, it's hard to believe Longwell won't be the team's place-kicker this year. Lloyd will be a high-priced kickoff specialist. But in explaining the initial split, special teams coordinator Brian Murphy said: "There is no preconceived notion about how this roster will develop. We want to see everyone compete at their highest level. We want to see them put in every position possible. If we get that at every position, we will be a better football team."
• Of all the veterans who missed significant camp time, Sullivan's absence might have been the most significant. He struggled at times during his first year as a starter and needed every practice repetition he could get. It's especially important to see if Sullivan has improved his core strength to stand up to NFL nose tackles.
• After noting the Vikings' long list of camp absences, it's only fair to note that two of their biggest -- and older -- players participated in every practice. Pat Williams, 37, and left tackle Bryant McKinnie, 30, were on the field every day.
• It appears as though Winfield has made it all the way back from a foot injury that made him a part-time player in 2009. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier admitted the team wasn't certain that would be the case when camp began, but Winfield experienced no setbacks after an offseason of rest and rehabilitation.
• Childress has used a John Wooden maxim as one of his primary messages of training camp. "It's in all of their manuals and I'm talking to them about it," Childress said. "It's this: 'The main ingredient to stardom is the rest of the team.' It's a great statement. We'll find out how much guys can put their stuff away for the greater good."

Let's continue our march to training camp by considering a handful of NFC North players whose teams are counting on strong training camp showings to bridge personnel gaps. You could refer to this as the proverbial "Hot Seat," but I prefer "Pressure Cooker." These players aren't facing either-or scenarios. In most of these cases, the team hasn't left itself a safety net. They must either jump out of the pot or get boiled. (Or something like that.)

Anyhoo, I made sure to identify at least one player from all four teams, but pardon me in advance for the unequal distribution. No sense forcing anyone into a category for symmetry's sake.

Chicago Bears
Defensive end Mark Anderson
The task: Demonstrate the kind of 10-sack potential the Bears apparently saw when they handed him a starting job this offseason.
The skinny: The Bears are projecting a repeat performance of Anderson's rookie season, when he had 12 sacks as a part-time player. He managed 9.5 sacks over the next three seasons combined, illustrating the risk Chicago is taking. Israel Idonije is available for depth, but he is best suited as a backup.

Detroit Lions
Middle linebacker DeAndre Levy
The task: Resolve questions about his aptitude for moving inside after spending all of his college career, and most of his rookie NFL season, as an outside linebacker.
The skinny: Lions coaches have lauded Levy's versatility and hitting ability for a year, but his assumed competence at middle linebacker is based on projections rather than evidence. While demonstrating athletic ability as a rookie, Levy also tied for the NFC North lead in broken tackles against. In his favor will be a huge upgrade at defensive tackle; Corey Williams and Ndamukong Suh should keep offensive linemen away from him.

Outside linebacker Zack Follett
The task: Replace Ernie Sims as the starting weakside linebacker.
The skinny: A seventh-round draft pick last season, Follett impressed coaches and teammates with his aggressive attitude on special teams. But the Lions are asking him to take a big leap, and to this point they haven't signed a veteran to give them a safety net if Follett isn't ready.

Green Bay Packers
Cornerback Tramon Williams
The task: Take the leap from fill-in to full-time starter after sitting out most of the offseason program.
The skinny: Williams has displayed immense potential in starting stints the past two years, but the Packers might need him to take over on a permanent basis this season. Former starter Al Harris is recovering from a serious injury and isn't expected to be ready for the start of training camp. There's a big difference between fill-in work and long-term stability.

Minnesota Vikings
Cornerback Lito Sheppard
The task: Recapture enough of his skills to provide short-term relief as a starter while Cedric Griffin recovers from knee surgery.
The skinny: Sheppard lost his starting job with the New York Jets last season, a year after the Philadelphia Eagles gave up on him. He was a good get based on the availability of veteran cornerbacks, and the Vikings would do well if they can get a solid six weeks from him. That will allow them to save Benny Sapp for nickel situations and give rookie Chris Cook more seasoning.

Left guard Steve Hutchinson, center John Sullivan and right guard Anthony Herrera
The task: Demonstrate their health and rebound from a season that left something to be desired from each.
The skinny: Hutchinson and Herrera were slowed by injuries last season, and Sullivan recently revealed he had ankle surgery this offseason. As a whole, the interior of the Vikings' offensive line needs to spend this summer leveling itself out.

Earlier: NFC North teams ready to implement a counterpunch to the pass-happy 2009 season.

NFL offseasons are filled with breathless updates on players recovering from injuries and surgeries of various degrees. Here in the NFC North, however, we have five players whose injuries occurred so recently -- or were so severe -- that their availability is already in doubt for the start of the season.

Teams have been known to express intentional and excessive optimism about injured players -- shocker! -- so let's try to take an unvarnished look at the severity of each Black and Blue situation, the latest timetable and the likeliest contingency plan. Note: There aren't any Chicago Bears mentioned below. The Bears are lucky that their roster is relatively healthy.

Player: Detroit Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee
Injury date: Nov. 26, 2009
Status update: Pettigrew has been participating in individual drills during organized team activities but isn't expected to be ready to practice when training camp begins next month. It's likely he'll start camp on the physically-unable-to-perform (PUP) list. If you subscribe to the 10-month timetable for typical ACL injuries, Pettigrew will be cleared at some point in September.
Contingency: The Lions traded for Denver tight end Tony Scheffler and re-signed backup Will Heller. The Scheffler trade was a smart move regardless, but it reinforced the point that Pettigrew isn't likely to be at full speed when the season begins. At some point, Pettigrew and Scheffler will form a potent one-two duo. But for the immediate future, Scheffler and Heller are the likeliest candidates to open the season.

Player: Lions tailback Kevin Smith
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee
Injury date: Dec. 13, 2009
Status update: Like Pettigrew, Smith has been participating in some individual drills during OTAs. Coach Jim Schwartz recently said he "wouldn't be surprised at all" if Smith is ready to practice at the start of training camp, putting him back on the field less than nine months after the injury. It's been done before but would represent an accelerated timetable.
Contingency: Whether Smith was injured, it's likely the Lions still would have traded back into the first round to select speedy tailback Jahvid Best. Given Schwartz's well-known feelings about Best's game-breaking ability, it's hard to imagine a situation where Best isn't the Lions' top option in the backfield -- no matter when Smith returns. If Smith isn't ready to provide backup carries, the Lions still have 2009 backup Maurice Morris on their roster.

Player: Green Bay Packers cornerback Al Harris
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee
Injury date: Nov. 22, 2009
Status update: Harris' injury has been described as worse than a typical torn ACL. According to Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com, Harris required a second procedure to accelerate the healing process. Harris recently moved his rehabilitation work to Green Bay and is back around the team. But while Harris has expressed some optimism about being ready for training camp, it appears a trip to the PUP list is much more likely.
Contingency: The Packers protected themselves by issuing a high tender to Harris' presumed replacement, restricted free agent Tramon Williams -- a move that ensured Williams wouldn't be able to sign with another team. Whether it happens this season or further in the future, Williams seems destined to take over for Harris, who turns 36 in December.

Player: Minnesota Vikings cornerback Cedric Griffin
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in left knee
Injury date: Jan. 24, 2010
Status update: Griffin has been rehabilitating at the Vikings' facility but hasn't yet participated in organized team activities. It's likely he'll miss minicamp later this week and it's hard to imagine that he won't wind up on the PUP list for training camp. A 10-month rehab would put him back on the field at midseason.
Contingency: The Vikings' public optimism must be viewed in the context of their rapid-fire offseason moves to add depth at cornerback. They re-signed 2009 nickel back Benny Sapp, brought in veteran free agent Lito Sheppard and made Chris Cook the No. 34 overall pick of the draft. Coaches also have praised second-year player Asher Allen during OTAs. That collection of cornerbacks suggests the Vikings aren't counting on Griffin returning anytime soon.

Player: Vikings linebacker E.J. Henderson
Injury: Fractured left femur
Injury date: Dec. 6, 2009
Status update: Henderson said Friday he is beginning to run at full speed and that he would do everything he could to be cleared for the start of training camp. But it would be a shock if Henderson didn't open camp on the PUP. The same goes for the possibility of opening the season as the Vikings' middle linebacker. Henderson's original recovery timetable was one year. He has a permanent titanium rod in the leg, a rare predicament for an NFL player.
Contingency: It seems likely that second-year player Jasper Brinkley will open the season as the Vikings' middle linebacker. The real question will be whether Brinkley handles all of the duties associated with that job, or if the Vikings will have outside linebacker Ben Leber call the defensive signals until Henderson's presumed return.

Preseason predictions are a lot like flying lessons. You can practice and study and anticipate as much as you want while sitting in a simulator. The reality, however, is no one knows if you can fly a plane until you get up in the (real) air.

That's a pretentious, Minnesota cake-eating way of acknowledging the limited value of predicting in May who will sit atop the NFC North on the night of Jan. 2, 2011. But to the extent that it matters, and following up on our "faulty assumptions" discussion from last week, I think we are erring in assuming that Minnesota should be the preseason favorite to repeat as division champions.

In fact, if I had to pick a winner right now -- and I don't, and it doesn't matter, but I'm doing it anyway -- I would go with Green Bay. (Audience: Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.)

I'll state my case in a bit. But first, let's consider the most quantitative way I'm aware of to make these predictions. We first introduced you to AccuScore last summer as Brett Favre was moving closer to joining the Vikings. The AccuScore people develop variables to create digital profiles for NFL coaches and players. Those profiles are used to create "teams" that are then run through a computer simulation to play out a "season" based on each team's actual NFL schedule.

Using 10,000 such simulated seasons last year, AccuScore correctly predicted the NFC North's final standings. This year, as you can see in the charts below, AccuScore is picking Minnesota to win the division if Favre returns and the Packers if he doesn't.

ESPN.com's Spring Power Rankings also pick Minnesota to finish ahead of Green Bay, presumably based on similar expectations for Favre. But I think we should at least question whether Favre's presence automatically will give the Vikings a division title. These are two teams, after all, that finished within a game of each other last season, primarily as a result of Minnesota's season sweep.

(Sorry, Chicago and Detroit. My head isn't big enough to consider more than two division contenders right now.)

Here's where I'm coming from:

1. Favre made an undeniable impact on the Vikings last season, but let's not forget it came as a result of arguably the best season of his career. He threw seven interceptions in 2009 after throwing at least twice that many in 14 of his previous 17 full seasons. To be fair, we can't rule out a repeat performance. But what do you think is more likely: A 2010 season closer to his career averages or another precedent-setter? If a modest slip accounts for even one additional loss, it could be enough for the Packers to leapfrog them in the standings.
2. If Favre is less effective in 2010, it stands to reason he'll be less dangerous to the Packers' biggest weakness of last season: Pass defense against elite quarterbacks. When you look at Green Bay's schedule, you see eight games in which they will face a quarterback who has played in a Pro Bowl. But I would only consider three of those games -- two against Favre and one against New England's Tom Brady -- to feature the kind of elite passers who ravaged the Packers last season. And this doesn't take into account the possibility that the Packers' pass defense will improve independently of Favre's potential slide. I have my doubts about the Packers' potential for improvement, but it's conceivable the Vikings will be less equipped to exploit it.
AP Photo/Jim MoneTight end Jermichael Finley had a breakout season in 2009, catching 55 passes for 676 yards and 5 TDs.
3. There are some areas in which Green Bay unquestionably has improved and Minnesota appears to have weakened since the start of last season. The Packers, for one, have a more balanced passing attack following the emergence of tight end Jermichael Finley. As long as 35-year-old receiver Donald Driver can provide another productive season, Green Bay has a yin-and-yang passing tree that will be much more difficult to defend than it was in the first half of 2009.
4. The Packers also appear to have a better plan at offensive line than they had entering the 2009 season. They have a veteran starter locked in at both tackle positions with skilled younger players set to back up both of them. First-round draft pick Bryan Bulaga will play behind left tackle Chad Clifton and T.J. Lang likely will be behind right tackle Mark Tauscher. This scenario minimizes the chance of jailbreak pass "protection" that set back the Packers early last season.
5. Minnesota's pass rush shouldn't miss a beat as long as defensive end Ray Edwards returns to complement Jared Allen and Kevin Williams. But the back seven is in an underdiscussed transition mode as spring practice begins. It's uncertain whether longtime middle linebacker E.J. Henderson will make a full return from a fractured leg, and the drop-off to second-year player Jasper Brinkley is notable. Starting cornerback Cedric Griffin will need several more months to rehabilitate a torn anterior cruciate ligament, leaving veterans Lito Sheppard and Benny Sapp to man his position. No NFL team seemed willing to give Sheppard or Sapp a starting job in free agency this year. And the Vikings only can hope that 33-year-old cornerback Antoine Winfield is fully recovered from a fractured foot that limited him last season.
6. Green Bay's schedule gives the team a better chance to jump to an early division lead than the Vikings'. With games against Buffalo, Detroit, Washington and Miami, the Packers have a decent chance to be 5-1 or 6-0 heading into an Oct. 24 showdown against the Vikings at Lambeau Field. The Vikings, meanwhile, face difficult games at New Orleans and at the New York Jets. They'll have done well to be 4-2 at that point. But the bottom line is that there is a decent chance the Packers could establish a three-game lead in the division before November starts.

This is just one early-May take. I'm sure you have your own. Remember: We're still in the simulator. Nothing more. Let's take pleasure from a consequence-free environment.