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The St. Louis Rams found a player fitting the mold of a No. 1 wide receiver.

Appalachian State's Brian Quick, chosen 33rd overall as the 2012 NFL draft entered its second round, fits the profile. He's 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds -- more in line with wide receivers selected among the top few overall choices. Quick lasted until the 33rd pick because he's raw, from a smaller program and lacking elite speed.

"Former hoops standout and high-jumper has had to endure four positional coaches in four years and would be best with simplified assignments, but possesses a unique combination of body length, hand-eye coordinator, hand strength and leaping ability," Nolan Nawrocki wrote for Pro Football Weekly's draft preview.

The Rams watched Jacksonville select Justin Blackmon fifth overall, one spot ahead of where the Rams were picking. Then, after trading down, they watched Arizona select the next wide receiver, Michael Floyd.

Blackmon and Floyd were the highest-rated receivers in the draft, but there was no consensus either qualified as a clear No. 1 wideout. The Rams traded back, took defensive tackle Michael Brockers at No. 14 and then watched the San Francisco 49ers use the 27th overall choice for A.J. Jenkins, a player the Rams had rated not far behind Blackmon, according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Blackmon, 6-1 and 207, did not fit the physical profile for wide receivers considered elite enough for teams to to draft among the top three overall choices (see chart). Quick fits that profile -- starts, but no guarantee he'll turn into that type of player.

The St. Louis Rams' need for a wide receiver has not diminished in recent days.

But would the team really trade up two spots in the 2012 NFL draft to select Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon with the fourth overall choice? I do not think that is likely, but a recent report caught my attention.

"Rams and Eagles among about four teams interested in trading up to No. 4 with Browns, sources say," a headline in the Cleveland Plain Dealer said Friday.

The story itself says nothing about the Rams expressing a specific interest in acquiring that choice to select Blackmon or anyone else. It refers to public comments from Rams coach Jeff Fisher suggesting Cleveland could be one potential trading partner.

"At the NFL owners meetings last month, Fisher said he'd consider trading up with the Browns depending on what they wanted in return," the story said. "He didn't specify which player he'd trade up for, but the Rams are believed to have interest in Blackmon. Fisher re-iterated Friday that he'll trade up, down or stay where he is."

If the Rams absolutely had to have Blackmon or any one player in this draft, they could have held onto the No. 2 overall choice. Instead, they traded that pick to Washington with an eye toward building for the long term. They are in position to choose from a group that could include Blackmon, tackle Matt Kalil, cornerback Morris Claiborne, running back Trent Richardson and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, among others.

We've discussed whether Blackmon would be worthy of such an early choice and, earlier, how the 6-foot-1, 207-pound prospect compares physically to wideouts drafted among the top three selections.

I've noticed a differentiation in physical attributes and career success among receivers based upon standing within the first round.

The first chart shows wide receivers drafted among the top three overall choices since 1990. All were at least 6-3. They averaged 220 pounds. Five of the six have been selected to a Pro Bowl as a wide receiver (as opposed to a returner).


The second chart shows receivers drafted fourth through sixth overall, also since 1990. Half were at least 6-3. They averaged 205 pounds. Two are just getting started, making it premature to evaluate their careers. One of the other four, Torry Holt, earned Pro Bowl honors as a wide receiver.

Todd McShay set off alarms as he considered if NFL teams drafting sixth (St. Louis Rams) and 10th (Buffalo Bills) might consider selecting wide receivers with those choices.

The alarms grew louder as McShay, speaking in the video above, noted that Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon, widely rated as the top receiver in the 2012 NFL draft, did not possess prototypical size.

Blackmon, though obviously talented, doesn't fit the physical mold for receivers drafted among the top three overall choices over the past 25-plus years. We discussed the reasons back at the combine, when the Rams held the second overall choice and Blackmon was a consideration for them.

The Rams subsequently traded the second overall choice to Washington. They now hold the sixth overall choice. Blackmon would be a more logical value there than at No. 2, except for those alarms going off.

Consider recent draft history.

First, take a look at receivers drafted among the top five overall choices since 2000, listed in the first chart below.

Three of the seven are superstars: Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson. Another, A.J. Green, is coming off an impressive rookie season. Braylon Edwards has enjoyed sporadic success. The other two, Charles Rogers and Peter Warrick, fell far short of expectations.

Those seven players have combined for 12 Pro Bowl appearances (Fitzgerald 5, Johnson 5, Johnson 1, Edwards 1).

The next set of receivers, listed below, were drafted sixth to 15th overall. I selected that range because three NFC West teams -- the Rams, Seattle Seahawks (12th) and Arizona Cardinals (13th) -- hold picks in that area.

The 16 players listed in the second chart have combined for two Pro Bowls, one by Roy Williams and the other by Koren Robinson as a return specialist in Minnesota, long after Robinson had bombed as a receiver.

Receivers talented enough to command selection among the top few overall choices have fared better than the ones with enough question marks to push them down into the next tier.

That is something to consider when weighing how the Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals should use their first-round selections, even if the Rams did land Torry Holt with the sixth overall choice in 1999.

Lots of little things to cover while waiting for Peyton Manning to choose his next employer:

• The market for Matt Flynn appears flat ... unless the Miami Dolphins are willing to drive up the price for him. ESPN's Adam Schefter expects that to happen, suggesting that the Dolphins realize they're probably not going to land Manning. Flynn is visiting the Seattle Seahawks and now has a visit lined up for Miami. If he gets starting money, expect it to be from the Dolphins.
• Carolina guard Travelle Wharton, Philadelphia receiver Steve Smith and Green Bay center Scott Wells were among the free agents visiting with the Rams on Thursday, Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
• The Rams are only getting started. By my accounting, they had a league-low 48 players on their roster Thursday, counting restricted free agents and franchise players. They are the youngest team in the NFL at present, but that will change as they fill out their roster with a mix of veterans and draft choices. Seattle is threatening the Rams to field the NFL's youngest roster after releasing veteran guard Robert Gallery and not signing 34-year-old Steve Hutchinson.
• The Rams and Seahawks appear to be primary suitors for former Tennessee Titans defensive lineman Jason Jones. St. Louis should have the advantage with Jones' former coach in Tennessee, Jeff Fisher, now in St. Louis. The Rams could also offer more playing time, at least as their roster sets up presently.
• Mario Manningham, who spent Thursday visiting San Francisco, was a natural candidate for the 49ers. The team needs a receiver. Manningham is one of the better free agents out there. He also went to Michigan, which never hurts as long as Jim Harbaugh is coaching the 49ers. The first veteran free-agent wideout the 49ers signed during the Harbaugh era also played there. Braylon Edwards was a Michigan man, as was his father. Edwards and Randy Moss are the only veteran free-agent receivers to sign with San Francisco under Harbaugh.
• The receivers with whom San Francisco has visited -- Manningham, Brandon Lloyd and Chaz Schilens -- fit different molds. That makes it tough to say for sure what the 49ers are looking for specifically. The team appears to be in no rush. Manningham left without a deal, no surprise.
• Whether Ted Ginn Jr. leaves in free agency could affect the 49ers' thinking, too. Schilens might fill some of the void left when Josh Morgan, another wideout with good size, left for Washington. Lloyd could make more sense as a downfield threat if Ginn isn't in the 49ers' plans. Manningham has good quickness. Like Lloyd, he's slighter than Morgan or Schilens.
• It's looking like the Arizona Cardinals will bring back tackle Levi Brown, Kent Somers reports. That is good for the Cardinals, who need tackles, but not necessarily bad news for opposing pass-rushers, either.
• Hutchinson's deal with Tennessee is expected to pay him a $6.5 million guarantee. There's some history behind that number. Titans executive Mike Reinfeldt was with the Seahawks when the team lost Hutchinson to Minnesota in 2006. Back then, the Seahawks used the transition tag for Hutchinson, setting his one-year value at $6.391 million. Seattle was offering a $6.5 million average on a long-term deal at the time. Reinfeldt wound up getting Hutchinson for the $6.5 million price, albeit six years later and multiple time zones away. That won't do the Seahawks any good.
• The Cardinals have less than 24 hours before a decision on a $7 million bonus to Kevin Kolb comes due. If Manning doesn't make a decision by then, will he at least tip off the Cardinals if he's leaning toward Denver or Tennessee? That would help, but sometimes the teams themselves are the last ones to know when they're out of the running.

Enjoy your Thursday. I'm sure we're not finished for the day.

Ten thoughts as NFL free agency moves through its sixth hour:

• Red Bryant's re-signing in Seattle stands as the biggest NFC West-related signing to this point, trailed by Josh Morgan's departure from San Francisco to Washington. News on the quarterback front remains slow. If the Seahawks consider former Miami starter Chad Henne, they will not be talking big money.
• The Chaz Schilens market should be fascinating to watch unfold over the next month. Alas, for all the hype surrounding the few big-name free agents hitting the NFL market Tuesday, lesser-known role players such as Schilens are carrying much of the conversation in this division. Schilens, a part-time starter in Oakland with 72 catches over four seasons, visited Arizona and plans to visit San Francisco.
• San Francisco appears increasingly justified for signing Randy Moss as free-agent options dissipate. We can remove Vincent Jackson's name from the list of prominent receivers potentially under consideration; he's headed to Tampa Bay on a five-year deal. Pierre Garcon is also off the market, having joined Morgan in reaching agreement with the Redskins. The chart below shows current and recent 49ers receivers, ranked from oldest to youngest. Moss and Michael Crabtree could use some company.
• Deals for Jackson and other wideouts stand to affect Mike Wallace's asking price, but market conditions are far less favorable for restricted free agents. Wallace, arguably the NFL's top deep threat, remains available for any team willing to make an offer the Steelers would not match. The signing team would have to part with a first-round pick. The 49ers appear less likely to do so after signing Moss.
• Jim Thomas is pointing to Tennessee's Cortland Finnegan as the Rams' top priority at cornerback in free agency. That means the 49ers' Carlos Rogers is not the Rams' top priority at the position, despite Rogers' ties to Rams defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. What is the market for Rogers? Might the 49ers sign him in the future? They appear to be moving on at the position, though it's too early to say for certain.
• The Cardinals, having done well to land Daryn Colledge in free agency last offseason, are in the market for another guard. The Titans' Jake Scott is visiting, Thomas and Kent Somers note. Scott turns 31 next month and has started 120 consecutive regular-season games, the second-longest streak for an active guard. Scott played at Idaho while Colledge, 30, was at Boise State.
• Looks like Seattle and St. Louis have interest in Titans defensive tackle Jason Jones. The Rams would presumably have the inside track. Jones played for new Rams coach Jeff Fisher. St. Louis also has the greater need. The Rams are starting over at defensive tackle.
• It's tough to know for sure just how hard teams are chasing after certain players. Agents tend to err on the side of overstatement while attempting to build markets for their clients. Too frequently, the same goes for contract figures. Arizona's Kevin Kolb supposedly received $21 million in "guaranteed" money last offseason, but if the Cardinals cut him this week, he'll leave with $12 million -- great money for one partial season as a starter, but not $21 million.
• The Seahawks could not justify naming tight end John Carlson their franchise player, but re-signing him would give them very good depth at the position. The fact that Carlson visited Kansas City right away shows he's eager to check out opportunities elsewhere, however.
• The Rams have so far held onto 2009 first-round pick Jason Smith. They could keep him, but with Houston unexpectedly releasing Eric Winston, the Rams will visit with him, Adam Schefter reports. The Rams could do much worse than having Winston and Harvey Dahl on the right side.

Now, on to the chart showing 49ers wide receivers with the team currently or in the recent past ...

A few thoughts after the San Francisco 49ers reached agreement Monday on a one-year deal with receiver Randy Moss:

• The 49ers needed to do something at the position. They probably still do. But there's at least an outside chance Moss will help them open up the passing game and threaten opponents down the field. There was less chance of that happening without Moss on the roster.
• San Francisco's low-risk investment in Braylon Edwards did not work out last season. Edwards suffered knee and shoulder injuries. He appeared to become frustrated. The 49ers cut him late in the season even though they needed manpower at the position. Moss is the new Edwards, a big-name receiver trying to revive his career on the cheap. Edwards was a strong vertical threat before joining the 49ers, but that aspect of his game never materialized in San Francisco. The 49ers' yards-per-catch were down across the board. That changed in the playoffs when Vernon Davis got going. Can Moss provide something similar, even in small doses? Davis is much younger and more athletic than Moss at this point.
• What will Moss offer in the locker room? How will he mesh with Michael Crabtree? The 49ers were generally pleased with Crabtree last season. They loved the way he blocked. They appreciated the plays he made in crucial moments, including against Cincinnati (negated by a bad officiating call) and at Seattle (clutch catch down the sideline). There's still a sense from the outside that Crabtree hasn't fully bought into what the team is doing, as reflected by some of his comments and, in the past, his lack of participation in various offseason practices. Those perceptions might not line up with how coach Jim Harbaugh views Crabtree, however.
• A one-year contract gives Harbaugh and the organization all the leverage. The 49ers can release Moss at any time. That makes this signing a low-risk proposition. Skepticism should prevail until Moss proves he can be more effective than he was while bouncing from team to team to team during a lackluster 2010 season. He's 35 years old and has been out of the game for a year. We're more likely to see an old Moss than the Moss of old, and the nature of the 49ers' offense wouldn't seem to facilitate downfield strikes.
• Assistant head coach and special-teams coordinator Brad Seely was with Moss in New England. His presence provided the 49ers with an honest first-hand assessment of what Moss might offer. Then again, Moss was catching passes from Tom Brady in New England. How will he react with Alex Smith as his likely quarterback?
• Minicamps and training camp just became more interesting for the 49ers. Moss will be the center of attention. I'm looking forward to seeing him match up against Arizona's Patrick Peterson and the big, aggressive corners in Seattle.

Your thoughts on Moss to San Francisco? Fire away.

File Randy Moss' scheduled workout with the San Francisco 49ers under the "no stone left unturned" category.

ESPN's Adam Schefter says the workout will take place Monday.

The 49ers nearly ran out of healthy wideouts late last season. The position remains one of great need heading into the free-agent signing period, which begins Tuesday.

Michael Crabtree, Kyle Williams, Ted Ginn Jr., Josh Morgan, Braylon Edwards, Brett Swain and Joe Hastings were among the wide receivers Alex Smith targeted last season. Signing Edwards to a modest deal before the season showed a willingness to take on a higher-profile receiver.

Moss, who recently turned 35, is eligible to sign with any team before free agency. That is because he was not under contract to any team in 2011. He caught nine passes for New England, 13 for Minnesota and six for Tennessee during the 2010 season. He recently revealed intentions to come back for the 2012 season.

Moss does not appear to have strong ties to the 49ers' offensive staff. The 49ers' special-teams coordinator and assistant head coach, Brad Seely, provides one known connection. He and Moss were together in New England.

The 49ers could be interested in gathering information on all the available receivers before free agency begins. The workout could help give them a feel for Moss' expectations and physical condition.

It's a line right out of the free-agent playbook. Mario Manningham says he wants to stay with the New York Giants. Per Ohm:

"I don’t want to go nowhere," Manningham said. "But if it is somewhere else, that is where my path continues. I want to come back. I can't wait to see what is going on, am I going to be here or not. I want to be here."

Sure, but he doesn't mean that. Because staying with the Giants would mean making a heck of a lot less money than he will make if he takes his talents to the open free-agent market and sells them to the highest bidder. And that matters, folks. In a league built on non-guaranteed contracts in which you're one freak injury away from never playing again, you get what you get when you can get it. And for Manningham, this is when he can get it.

This is a partial list of teams that are looking for starting-caliber wide receivers this offseason:

Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars
IndianapolisColts
Denver Broncos
San Diego Chargers

And here's a list of the available, non-franchised free-agent wide receivers who probably rank ahead of Manningham:

Vincent Jackson
Marques Colston
Mike Wallace
Reggie Wayne
Brandon Lloyd

Get the picture? Yeah, first list is a heck of a lot longer than the second list. That means, unless Jackson can figure out a way to clone himself and sign with 11 teams, there are still going to be a lot of teams looking for starting-caliber wide receivers once the top guys sign. Manningham is right there in that next group with guys like Pierre Garcon, Robert Meachem, Braylon Edwards ... guys like that. And he has the advantage of just having played big in the playoffs and the Super Bowl, which ups a guy's value.

Manningham is positioned to cash in — to sign with a team for No. 2 wide receiver money — maybe even for a little bit more than that. The Giants have Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and no room under the salary cap, and they're not about to pay Manningham No. 2 wide receiver money to stay. If he'd like to stay for No. 3 wide receiver money, I'm sure they'd be happy to talk to him about it. But that wouldn't be the shrewdest career move on Manningham's part.

So, while it's nice that he's saying what he's saying about wanting to stay with the Giants, Manningham doesn't really mean it. It just wouldn't make sense.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Justin Blackmon's credentials make him a high first-round prospect in the 2012 NFL draft.

How high? Would the St. Louis Rams take him second overall?

History suggests Blackmon doesn't fit the physical profile for wide receivers selected among the top three overall choices. That feeds into the thinking St. Louis might trade back from the No. 2 overall selection before taking the talented wideout from Oklahoma State.

NFL scouting combine officials measured Blackmon at 6 feet and seven-eighths of an inch. Blackmon weighed 207 pounds. The height will round to 6-foot-1, plenty tall to play wide receiver in the NFL, but quite a bit shorter than the wideouts teams have selected among the top three overall choices since 1985: Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson and Keyshawn Johnson.

Four additional receivers come under consideration when we expand the range to players drafted among the top five overall choices. A.J. Green (6-4), Peter Warrick (5-11), Michael Westbrook (6-3) and Desmond Howard (5-10) were selected fourth overall since 1985.

Height isn't everything in a wide receiver, but those drafted earliest have generally been taller and heavier than Blackmon. Will that apply to Blackmon as well? On a side note, he isn't running at the combine after suffering a hamstring injury last week.

The leaping grab Hakeem Nicks made in the end zone for the New York Giants stood as a pivotal moment in their postseason victory over the 15-1 Green Bay Packers last week.

Vernon Davis was the one making impressive catches for the San Francisco 49ers during their playoff victory over the 14-3 New Orleans Saints.

Rain could make holding onto the football tougher for both teams in the NFC Championship Game at Candlestick Park on Sunday.

With that in mind, I've put together a chart showing regular-season catch-to-drop ratios for 49ers and Giants players with at least 10 receptions. The numbers come courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information, which defines drops as "incomplete passes where the offending player should have caught the pass with ordinary effort, and only when the receiver is 100 percent at fault."

According to this standard, "Passes thrown just outside the receiver's reach or those falling incomplete when pass interference should have been called do not meet the standard."

These are blatant drops, in other words.

Wide receiver is one position where the Giants have an obvious talent advantage over the 49ers. San Francisco needs improved play from Michael Crabtree in particular. He failed to catch contested balls against New Orleans. Kyle Williams is another 49ers receiver to watch.

49ers running back Frank Gore tops the list of Giants and 49ers players with the fewest receptions per drop. He caught the ball well against the Saints, however.
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» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending:

Final Power Ranking: 3
Preseason Power Ranking: 26

Biggest surprise: Alex Smith threw only five interceptions while finishing the season with a 90.7 NFL passer rating, ninth-best in the league. In 2010, he threw twice as many picks in five fewer games. Smith also held up better physically than he had in past seasons. He made 16 starts without suffering much more than a mild concussion that forced him to miss no meaningful time. Smith, a participant in zero fourth-quarter comeback victories from 2008- 10, put his signature on five of them this season. That was tied for most in the league. Coach Jim Harbaugh pushed Smith for the Pro Bowl.

Biggest disappointment: Injuries to Josh Morgan, Ted Ginn Jr., Kyle Williams, Delanie Walker and the since-released Braylon Edwards have left the 49ers thin on pass catchers heading into the playoffs. The team will need more from Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree to compensate for what Morgan, Walker and Edwards would have provided at their best. Getting back Ginn and Williams also should help. Davis reemerged as a primary threat in recent weeks. He had 18 catches for 244 yards over the 49ers' final three regular-season games. That is the most productive three-game stretch of the season for Davis. Crabtree is also producing at a higher level lately. Still, this group could have been stronger.

Biggest need: Additional help in the secondary could make sense. The 49ers, despite ranking among the league leaders in most defensive categories, allowed 12 pass plays of at least 40 yards, tied for fifth-most in the league. Long pass plays were a factor in defeats to Dallas and Arizona. The 49ers will have to decide how much to pay cornerback Carlos Rogers and free safety Dashon Goldson. Both earned Pro Bowl honors. Neither has a contract for next season. It's unclear how aggressive the 49ers might be in retaining them. Chris Culliver, a third-round choice in 2011, had an interception and seven passes defensed as a rookie. He factors into the equation at corner.

Team MVP: Defensive end Justin Smith gets the call over inside linebacker Patrick Willis because Smith started every game and dominated. Smith can occupy two blockers and still get free to make a tackle. He's a threat to sack the quarterback. His presence was also a leading factor in setting up teammates. Rookie Aldon Smith had 14 sacks in part because Smith forced favorable matchups. A knee injury slowed Justin Smith during the final two games, but he fought through it and even sneaked back onto the field when the Rams were rallying in Week 17.

Special season: No team in the league could top the 49ers on special teams. San Francisco led the league in field position. Ginn averaged 27.6 yards per kickoff return and 12.3 yards per punt return, scoring two touchdowns in the opener. Kicker David Akers set a league record for made field goals. After the 49ers downed Andy Lee's 64-yard punt at the St. Louis 1-yard line in the fourth quarter Sunday, Lee emerged with the highest single-season net average (44.0) since at least 1976, according to Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information.

San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh confirmed veteran receiver Braylon Edwards' release during his KNBR radio show Tuesday, but he declined to discuss reasoning until first addressing the team.

The bottom line: Edwards was not contributing much. Injuries were one factor. They might not have been the only factor, though it's unlikely Harbaugh will go into specifics if he thought Edwards did not fit.

Edwards has 15 receptions for 181 yards and no touchdowns in nine games, with five starts. He missed time to knee surgery earlier in the season. Shoulder trouble also seemed to slow him at times. He missed no games with the New York Jets in 2010.

Edwards and Josh Morgan started the 49ers' regular-season opener against Seattle. Edwards' release and Morgan's placement on injured reserve reflect significantly different dynamics at the position. The team will presumably have Ted Ginn Jr. and Kyle Williams back from injuries for the playoffs, if not sooner. Their presence, coupled with Michael Crabtree's improved play, would restore some depth to the position.

But the offensive mix is changing. Delanie Walker's jaw injury will lead to more playing time for veteran tight end Justin Peelle. We could see the 49ers use two running backs more frequently. We could see a few more three-receiver looks if Ginn and Williams are healthy enough to contribute.

Bringing in a big-name veteran for the playoffs wouldn't make a great deal of sense, in my view. The 49ers are not going to become a pass-happy team. They care about locker room dynamics. Harbaugh prefers heavier personnel groupings anyway. Crabtree is playing well enough to serve as the primary option at wideout. Vernon Davis has become more involved. The team probably needs another tight end as much as it needs another wideout, in my view.

The three names listed last in ESPN's weekly quarterback performance rankings have one thing in common: NFC West divisional heritage.

The Arizona Cardinals' John Skelton was 32nd. The St. Louis Rams' Kellen Clemens was at No. 31. The Seattle Seahawks' Tarvaris Jackson was 30th.

This would normally be unwelcome in these parts, but I'm going to embrace their Week 16 badness as beneficial to the division's long-term health. Skelton and Jackson had been winning enough recently to change perceptions about them. Having them struggle in defeats that knocked their teams from playoff contention makes it tougher for anyone, including the teams, to overestimate their capabilities.

The case of Alex Smith in San Francisco is a little trickier. Smith continues to lag in the season-long Total QBR rankings, but he has been quite good in recent weeks, save for a rough outing at Baltimore. Five times in the 49ers' last seven games, Smith has produced QBR figures that would project as worthy of Pro Bowl consideration if maintained over a full season. Those looking at raw passing stats might also notice that Smith has 24 touchdowns with only six interceptions while posting a 15-5 record in his last 20 starts.

The key plays Smith made for the 49ers in Week 16 -- two scrambles and a few clutch throws -- were enough for San Francisco to win despite suffering a blocked punt and a couple key injuries.

"I really thought that he was the difference in the game for them," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told reporters Monday. "I thought he did a very nice job. He didn’t turn the ball over at all, which was great for them. But those few plays -- that handful of plays where he kept the thing going -- I thought gave them an advantage on us that day."

Life gets a little more complicated for Smith now that a jaw injury is threatening to sideline tight end Delanie Walker, possibly for the season.

The situation at wide receiver is also in flux. Ted Ginn Jr. has been hurt, Kyle Williams suffered a concussion Saturday and Braylon Edwards announced his release via Twitter on Tuesday morning. Starter Josh Morgan is on injured reserve.


Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 16 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (73.8 QBR, 75.6 NFL rating): Smith completed 14 of 26 passes for 179 yards with no touchdowns, no interceptions, two sacks and one fumble, which the 49ers recovered. He scrambled five times for 22 yards, gaining 12 on a third-and-8 play to sustain a touchdown drive. This performance was good enough under the circumstances for the 49ers to win a close game against a good, but limited opponent. Questions about the 49ers' ability to keep pace with more dynamic offenses -- specifically those for Green Bay and New Orleans in the NFC -- will persist. But the 49ers were not playing those teams Saturday. Smith did what he had to do to win the game he was playing.
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks (11.8 QBR, 82.9 NFL rating): Jackson completed 15 of 28 passes for 163 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, three sacks and one lost fumble. He gained 5 yards on three carries. Jackson's NFL passer rating for the season nearly mirrors the one former Seahawks starter Matt Hasselbeck has posted in Tennessee. Hasselbeck ranks significantly higher in Total QBR, however, because plays associated with him have done more to increase his team's win probability. Jackson's tendency to hold onto the ball has led to sacks and other problems for Seattle. That was the case when the 49ers forced him to fumble late in the game. The turnover was pivotal.
• Kellen Clemens, St. Louis Rams (9.4 QBR, 49.1 NFL rating): Clemens completed 9 of 24 passes for 91 yards with no touchdowns, no interceptions, three sacks and one fumble, which the Rams recovered. He gained 10 yards on two rushes. The Rams leaned heavily on running back Steven Jackson in this game. Clemens was under pressure and could not lead the Rams into the end zone. Nothing he did gave the Rams a realistic shot at winning the game.
• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (6.3 QBR, 60.5 NFL rating): Skelton completed 23 of 44 passes for 297 yards with two touchdowns, three interceptions, five sacks and one fumble, which the Cardinals recovered. He rushed four times for 6 yards. The fact that Skelton's poor play doomed the Cardinals to a 23-0 deficit proved more important than the plays he made in getting Arizona back into the game late. The fourth-quarter production meant little in the end.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Candlestick Park. Better make that Candlestick Dark, Candlelit Park or some other electricity-deprived variation. The 49ers' stadium, although steeped in tradition, already was notorious as an outdated, substandard NFL stadium. Having two power outages knock out the lights during "Monday Night Football" only reinforced perceptions. December was shaping up as a rough month for the old stadium even before Monday night. The 49ers recently secured funding for a new stadium in Santa Clara.

2. Top two wideouts from 2005 draft. San Francisco's Braylon Edwards (third overall) and Seattle's Mike Williams (10th) have struggled to make an impact lately. The 49ers made sure that would continue for Edwards when they named him inactive Monday night. The Seahawks placed Williams on injured reserve after their 2010 receiving leader suffered a broken ankle against the Chicago Bears in Week 15. With Sidney Rice aboard, Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate emerging and Kris Durham coming back as a potential Williams type, there are no assurances Williams will remain in the team's plans for next season.

3. NFC West draft status. All four division teams lost ground in the 2012 draft. The St. Louis Rams fell to 2-12 with a defeat to Cincinnati, but their strength of schedule improved relative to the Minnesota Vikings' strength of schedule. As a result, the Vikings overtook the Rams for second in the tentative order. Every other NFC West team won in Week 15. That was great for San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle as the regular season winds down. It won't help in the draft, of course.

RISING

1. 49ers' playoff credibility. Beating the previously 10-3 Pittsburgh Steelers on a national stage left the 49ers with surging confidence after a three-game stretch featuring two defeats. The 49ers improved to 11-3 and remained ahead of New Orleans in the race for the second seed in the NFC. They showed they could beat a playoff-caliber team through defense, special teams and improved play in the red zone. Alex Smith, Aldon Smith and various other 49ers played well enough to deserve mention here as well.

2. Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks quarterback. Jackson completed 15 of 19 passes after halftime to help the Seahawks turn a 14-7 deficit into a 38-14 victory at Soldier Field. Jackson has three touchdowns with no interceptions over Seattle's past three games. The Seahawks are 3-0 in those games and have reached 7-7 thanks largely to Jackson's improved play. Seattle now has every reason to bring back Jackson as its starter heading into next season. The plan would still remain for the Seahawks to draft or otherwise acquire a younger quarterback to begin developing in 2012. On a side note, lots of other Seahawks deserved consideration in this spot, from Red Bryant to K.J. Wright to Brandon Browner and others.

3. Cardinals' 2010 draft haul. Second-round pick Daryl Washington is an emerging star. Third-rounder Andre Roberts caught a touchdown pass for the second week in a row. Fourth-rounder O'Brien Schofield collected two sacks, forcing a game-altering fumble on one of them. Fifth-rounder John Skelton posted another comeback victory, improving his record to 4-1 as the Cardinals' starting quarterback this season. Even veteran safety Kerry Rhodes, acquired from the New York Jets for a 2010 fourth-round pick, played a strong game Sunday. First-round pick Dan Williams is on injured reserve. Nothing the Cardinals can do about that.

SAN FRANCISCO — Inside linebacker Patrick Willis is inactive. Left tackle Joe Staley is active.

Those were the San Francisco 49ers' pregame moves we could see coming.

Braylon Edwards' inactive status Monday night comes as a mild surprise. Injuries have slowed Edwards this season and his production has been inconsistent.

The chart illustrates what the 49ers might be missing -- or not missing -- with Edwards inactive. It shows quarterback Alex Smith's yards per attempt by down and overall for the five wide receivers with receptions for San Francisco this season. Smith averages only 5.5 yards per attempt when targeting Edwards, lowest among the five.

Josh Morgan is on injured reserve. Smith completed 15 of 19 passes for 220 yards when targeting Morgan this season.

Brett Swain is active as the fourth receiver for the 49ers. Ted Ginn Jr. starts for Edwards. Despite inconsistent production as a receiver, Edwards stood out for his blocking against Arizona last week. The 49ers' receivers have been strong blockers this season.

The 49ers' strength at tight end gives them options if their numbers at receiver are limited.
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