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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Buffalo Bills in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): It would be a dream for Bills fans to see their team back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. The last time we saw Buffalo make the postseason, the Bills were the victim of the “Music City Miracle” in 1999. It has been a long line of disappointments and underachieving since that historic play. (Many Bills fans still contend that was a forward pass, by the way.) This year’s team looks poised to break the streak. This is the best team, on paper, that Buffalo has had in a long time. The offense will be dangerous if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick improves his consistency in the passing game and Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and the running game stay consistent. Buffalo also made improvements to the defense, including drafting corner Stephon Gilmore in the first round and adding stud defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Chances are, everything won’t fall into place for Buffalo. But this is a sleeper team that does have a chance to make a jump and contend for the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): Despite all the additions, there is no guarantee the Bills and their coaching staff can bring it all together in one year. What if Fitzpatrick continues to play like the second half of 2011 and is not the long-term solution? What if the defense struggles to make the transition to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt? What if big injuries again decimate this team? A lot can go wrong for the Bills, especially in a division where the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots are expected to dominate. The Bills are trying to catch up and cannot afford to make many mistakes in the AFC East. They were 1-5 against division foes last year. Bills head coach Chan Gailey is only 10-22 in his first two years in Buffalo. He has more talent than he has ever had with the Bills. There are no excuses for Gailey this year. It’s still somewhat of a mystery whether Gailey can coach. But we will find out in 2012.

Any good news involving Buffalo Bills starting running back Fred Jackson most likely is bad news for backup C.J. Spiller. The 2010 first-round draft pick has patiently waited his turn for two seasons while Jackson, 31, steadily puts up numbers ahead of him.

Barring injury, Jackson should be the starter for the immediate future after signing a two-year, $9 million extension. Jackson is coming off a spectacular 10 games in 2011 before suffering a season-ending leg injury. Buffalo is confident he will bounce back and gave Jackson the pay raise he was looking for.

What does this mean for Spiller? It means Spiller will stay in a reserve role longer than he expected. Spiller, 24, is signed through 2014. He’s a budding talent who wants a chance to start. But Spiller could find himself in a backup role in Buffalo for a majority of his rookie contract as long as Jackson continues to play at a high level.

I asked coach Chan Gailey about his running back quandary during the NFL owners meetings in March. Gailey admitted he needs to do a better job of dividing carries between two of his top offensive players.

“There is only one football, and you got several guys who can make plays," Gailey said. "Everybody is not going to be happy. That's part of it. So, you do the best you can to try to use C.J. and Fred in different ways to get them the ball, because they're capable of making big plays when they have the ball in their hands."

Spiller is ready to turn his game up, but Jackson's game has been revved up for a while. It will be important for Spiller to make the most of his opportunities in 2012, even if he thinks it's not enough.

The Buffalo Bills reportedly are "very interested" in former Alabama safety Mark Barron just one day before the NFL draft. Here are some additional thoughts on Buffalo potentially adding a safety at No. 10:

• As we mentioned earlier, this smells like a smokescreen. The timing is peculiar. Barron hasn't been linked to the Bills this entire offseason, but suddenly that's the case on draft week. Buffalo could be one of the teams looking to trade down, and this may be a case of drumming up interest in the pick. Teams like the Dallas Cowboys (No. 14) and the New York Jets (No. 16) are strong targets for Barron. The Bills would benefit if one of those teams or someone else wants to move up to No. 10 to grab Barron.
• On the flip side, Buffalo does have the tendency to draft the best available player. Remember C.J. Spiller? The Bills were fine at running back and took Spiller with the No. 9 overall pick in 2010. Spiller is still fighting starting running back Fred Jackson for playing time three seasons later. It's debatable whether Barron is a top-10 pick, but that may be the case on Buffalo's board.
• Speaking of the top 10, safety usually is not a position taken that high. The last time it happened in Buffalo, it didn't work out well. The Bills drafted former Ohio State safety Donte Whitner at No. 8 in 2006. The move was considered a major reach for the Bills, which turned out to be true. Whitner wasn't a bad player. He just wasn't a dominant player and was criticized for it in Buffalo. That is the kind of pressure that comes when a safety is drafted in the top 10. It's expected that safety must be a special talent.
• Finally, I think it's a mistake for Buffalo to draft Barron. Yes, Barron is a great prospect and the best safety in this draft. But the Bills are fine with George Wilson and Jairus Byrd at safety next season. Barron would have to compete to take one of those jobs, and it's possible Barron wouldn't start right away as a rookie. The Bills have other needs at left tackle, receiver, corner and linebacker where a rookie is sure to make an immediate impact. There should be quality players available at those four positions that can better help the Bills.

The scene at the AFC coaches' breakfast in Palm Beach, Fla., recently was fitting.

To my far left was New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan. He was surrounded by a large group of media that wanted to know how the Jets would handle Tim Tebow-mania and whether they could bounce back from a disappointing 2011.

To my immediate left was new Miami Dolphins coach Joe Philbin. A throng of reporters wondered what the rookie head coach had in store in his first season.

On my right was future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots. He continually gave non-answers about his team as reporters tried to dig up something -- anything -- about the reigning AFC champions.

In the middle of this madness was Buffalo Bills head coach Chan Gailey. His table was relatively empty most of the hourlong breakfast, with the exception of a few passers-by and this AFC East blogger. Few in the national media cared to know what Gailey and the Bills were up to. They're a small-market team that finished 6-10 last season and hasn't been to the playoffs in 13 years.

But by this time next year, people will be talking about Buffalo. The Bills are my sleeper pick in 2012. Here are five reasons why Buffalo will get over the hump and finish with a winning record:

Reason No. 1: Bills made right moves in free agency

Analysis: I will give myself a pat on the back. I was one of the first to note Buffalo's interest in two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams. Despite my prediction, I did not think Buffalo would be able to land the top defensive free agent on the market. But the Bills put on the full-court press and gave Williams 100 million reasons to join the Bills. Buffalo gained an elite pass-rusher and its first game-changer on defense. The Bills didn't stop there. They continued to improve their anemic pass-rush by signing former Patriots defensive end Mark Anderson, who recorded 10 sacks last year. Williams, Anderson and defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus make up one of the top defensive lines in the NFL. It's a group that can stop the run and get push up the middle while attacking the edges and pressuring the quarterback. Buffalo's talented front four will be a problem for a lot of teams next season. The Bills also retained their own key free agents. Buffalo re-signed No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson at an affordable rate they were comfortable with, as well as starting tight end Scott Chandler. There are still a few more holes Buffalo would like to fill. But the team is one of the biggest winners in free agency.

Reason No. 2: Double trouble at running back

Analysis: When they are healthy, there may not be a more dynamic running back duo in the NFL than Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. These two will be headaches for opposing defenses once Buffalo figures out how to blend both into the offense simultaneously. Jackson and Spiller could complement each other well. Buffalo's coaching staff admittedly did a poor job of balancing the two tailbacks last season. Jackson received a bulk of the carries when healthy, and Spiller finally showed what he could do at the end of the year once Jackson was injured. Now, both are hungry and want the football. Gailey called it "a great problem to have." Jackson is 31 and coming off a season-ending leg injury. That should open the door for Spiller to get more carries. Will it be a 50-50 split? Probably not. But the Buffalo offense will be dangerous if it can use Spiller and Jackson just enough to keep each fresh and productive the entire season.

Reason No. 3: AFC East is weakening

Analysis: A case can be made that the AFC East became a weaker division this offseason. The division wasn't very strong to begin with. Only the Patriots finished with a winning record in 2011. But the 6-10 Dolphins gutted their roster, getting rid of top players such as Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall and leading tackler and starting safety Yeremiah Bell. Miami also failed to land a franchise quarterback and settled on 34-year-old David Garrard as the potential starter next season. It's early, but it's hard to imagine Miami's finishing with a better record than last season. Meanwhile, the Jets are an aging team with chemistry issues. New York gave embattled quarterback Mark Sanchez a three-year contract extension and traded for popular backup Tebow, setting up a potentially explosive situation. The Jets will be on a year-long implosion watch, and their arrow could be trending downward after last year's mediocre 8-8 season. The Jets, Dolphins and Bills are all chasing the Patriots, who are clearly the favorites in the division. But the Bills, who split with New England last season, did a solid job to make up some ground.

Reason No. 4: Players are getting healthy

Analysis: I usually try to avoid the injury excuse, because every team has them. But I think it legitimately applies to the Bills. Buffalo suffered key injures last year at running back (Jackson), defensive tackle (Kyle Williams), linebacker (Shawne Merriman), offensive line (Eric Wood), receiver (Donald Jones) and even kicker (Rian Lindell), just to name a few. Bills starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick also played much of the season with a painful rib injury. By the second half of the year, the Bills didn't have anywhere near the same depth they had during their 4-1 start. Most of these players are expected to be back and healthy in 2012. Merriman is perhaps the biggest question mark after his second season-ending Achilles injury. But chances are slim that Buffalo will be hit this hard with injuries again. Health will be key for Buffalo to maintain a successful run over 16 games.

Reason No. 5: Bills have a top-10 pick

Analysis: The Bills have had a very productive offseason, but they aren't done yet. They still have a top-10 pick in this month's NFL draft. This is a great opportunity for Buffalo to plug more holes on the roster. The Bills could use a starting-caliber left tackle, another threat at receiver, a cover corner and depth at linebacker. The Bills also have more than $9 million in cap room to spend. Don't rule out late signings in free agency. After years of not spending to the cap, Buffalo tabbed 2012 as the year to make a push.

All of these reasons make the Bills my ideal sleeper pick for next season. Don't forget that you heard it here first.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- Fred Jackson is the starting running back for the Buffalo Bills -- and a pretty good one, too. Backup C.J. Spiller also is a former first-round pick who could start at running back for plenty of teams.

Two good rushers and only one football equals a big choice for Bills head coach Chan Gailey.

"That's a great problem to have by the way -- to have two great players," Gailey said Tuesday at the NFL owners meetings. "I don’t know how you do that. I know one thing: They're both not going to be totally happy with the touches that they get."

Buffalo didn't handle this situation too well last season. Jackson was on a tear and received about 80-90 percent of the carries. Spiller, meanwhile, was relegated to receiver duties and just a few carries per game.

But once Jackson broke his leg midseason, Spiller showed what he could do. He received a bulk of the carries and rushed for 446 yards in the last six games. Now, how does Buffalo carve out roles for two players who proved they can lead the charge?

"There is only one football, and you got several guys who can make plays," Gailey said. "Everybody is not going to be happy. That's part of it. So, you do the best you can to try to use C.J. and Fred in different ways to get them the ball, because they're capable of making big plays when they have the ball in their hands."

Some have mentioned Buffalo working out a 50-50 split next season. Gailey said he's not worried about that.

"If I want to sit there and chart how many carries each guy gets, then take him out when he gets his number and put the other guy in, yeah you can do that if that’s what’s most important," Gailey said. "But I don’t think that's the most important thing. The most important thing is to win and try to get two good players the ball."

One of the biggest offseason storylines in Buffalo this year is how the Bills will better share the football between starting running back Fred Jackson and 2010 first-round pick C.J. Spiller. Buffalo coach Chan Gailey addressed that dynamic at the NFL combine.

Both tailbacks are talented. But Jackson has been the primary ball carrier in Buffalo's offense, leaving Spiller mostly in a limited role until late in the season.

Spiller filled in well during the final six games after Jackson suffered a season-ending leg injury. Spiller rushed for 446 yards and five total touchdowns in that span to take momentum into the offseason.

"He could be an every down back. I don't see any reason he couldn't carry 20- 25 if he needed to," Gailey said of Spiller. "But he’s a valuable, versatile player. He can play wideout. We’re fortunate to have two very good backs. I’m going to try to make sure we keep them fresh and wear ‘em out at the same time. Does that make sense? But you want them to be on the field doing something, running routes, creating a threat for the defense."

Gailey added that Jackson is fully healed from his injury, which is good news for Buffalo. But the coaching staff has to figure out a way to use a healthy Jackson and Spiller next season to their full capabilities.

A report surfaced that Spiller is ready to turn up his game in Year 3 and compete for a starting role. That probably won't happen next season with Jackson still on the roster and about to get a contract extension. But Gailey said it's a good problem to have.

"If every guy I have on the team doesn't want to be a starter, I've got the wrong guys," Gailey said. "I want everybody to want to be a starter. But everybody's not. There's 11 of 'em. You have to learn to handle that. Whoever it is. You have to learn to handle it."

» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending.

Final Power Ranking: 25
Preseason Power Ranking: 30

Biggest surprise: Bills fans were almost ready to write off former first-round draft pick C.J. Spiller. The 2010 No. 9 overall pick didn't do much in his rookie season with limited playing time. This year, Buffalo tried to find ways to get him involved as a returner and part-time receiver and running back. But that wasn't enough. Spiller received a golden opportunity late in the season when starting running back Fred Jackson suffered a season-ending leg injury. Spiller showed explosiveness as an every-down back and set career highs with 561 yards and 5.2 yards per carry.

Biggest disappointment: Is Ryan Fitzpatrick the long-term solution at quarterback, and can he lead the Bills to a Super Bowl? The Bills believe that's the case after giving Fitzpatrick a six-year, $59 million extension in late October. The early returns weren't good. Fitzpatrick's play fell off after the big contract. He was 1-8 as a starter in his final nine games and had six multi-interception games in that stretch. Overall, Fitzpatrick set career highs for yards (3,832) and touchdowns (24). But he also set a career high for interceptions (23). Fitzpatrick needs to put an end to the streakiness and become more consistent in 2012. Expectations are higher now that he's officially the face of the franchise and a $10-million-a-year player.

Biggest need: Buffalo's defense needs a lot of help, as evidenced by giving up 49 unanswered points in the regular-season finale to the New England Patriots. But the Bills could most use a pass-rusher. They were counting on Shawne Merriman to be that guy. But at this stage in his career, he's not as explosive and too injury prone. Don't be surprised if Buffalo upgrades outside linebacker early in the draft or in free agency.

Team MVP: Despite playing just 10 games, Jackson is the easy choice for MVP in Buffalo. He was on pace for a Pro Bowl season, recording 934 rushing yards and an additional 442 yards receiving. Jackson was the biggest piece of Buffalo's offense. Despite Spiller's efforts, the team was never the same after Jackson went down. The Bills finished the season 1-5 following Jackson's injury. Buffalo said it would take care of Jackson this offseason. It will be interesting to see how the team handles the situation following Spiller's emergence and Jackson coming off a season-ending leg injury.

Free-agent watch: Keep an eye on receiver Steve Johnson in free agency. This is Buffalo's most polarizing offseason story. There are a ton of questions surrounding Johnson. Is he an elite No. 1 receiver? Does Johnson deserve $7-$8 million per season? Are his antics too much? What about the one-year franchise tag? The Bills can go in a lot of different directions. But Buffalo lacks playmakers at receiver and needs to find a replacement if the team lets its only impact receiver walk.

The NFL regular season is wrapping up soon. Here is how the AFC East fared in ESPN.com's Power Rankings:

New England Patriots (12-3)

Results: W, 27-24 against Dolphins

Power Ranking: No. 4 (same)

Walker's ranking: No. 3 (same)

Analysis: A come-from-behind win over the Dolphins didn't do anything for New England's power ranking. The Patriots stayed the same after overcoming a 17-point halftime deficit to improve to 12-3. The NFL has a bevy of strong teams at the top, and the Patriots may have to settle for the No. 4 spot the rest of the regular season. More importantly, New England just has to win its final game against Buffalo to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

New York Jets (8-7)

Results: L, 29-14 against New York Giants

Power Ranking: No. 16 (down four spots)

Walker's ranking: No. 16 (down two spots)

Analysis: The Jets were one of the biggest flops this week. The Jets dropped four spots to No. 16, and it was deserved after losing by 15 points to the Giants. Simply put, the Jets are a mediocre team. On paper, this group should be much better. The Jets have 11-win talent. But the Jets have zero consistency and now could end the year with a .500 record if they can't beat Dolphins on Sunday.

Miami Dolphins (5-10)

Results: L, 27-24 against Patriots

Power Ranking: No. 24 (down one spot)

Walker’s ranking: No. 23 (down one spot)

Analysis: Miami only dropped one spot after a respectable loss to the Patriots. The Dolphins probably could have beat most teams last week with a 17-point lead. But Patriots quarterback Tom Brady wouldn't allow New England to fold. The Dolphins are 5-3 in their last eight games. They're probably better than several teams rated ahead of them, but the 0-7 start will keep Miami in the 20s.

Buffalo Bills (6-9)

Results: W, 40-14 against Denver Broncos

Power Ranking: No. 25 (up one spot)

Walker’s ranking: No. 24 (up two spots)

Analysis: Buffalo finally broke its seven-game losing streak and upended the Broncos. It was one of the Bills' most impressive victories of the season, despite the game being meaningless. The Bills couldn't handle injuries or increased expectations after getting off to the fast start. The biggest bright spot is former first-round draft pick C.J. Spiller is proving that he can be a featured running back in the NFL. Buffalo is expected to drop this week's game at New England and finish with another double-digit losing season.

Week 16 is in the books for the AFC East. Here are five things we learned about the division:

1. Jets are not a playoff team

For the second week in a row, the New York Jets controlled their own destiny. And for the second week in a row, they played awful football.

The Jets did a lot of trash-talking during the week and proved it was nothing but hot air. The Giants outplayed the Jets in the "Battle of New York" and won 29-14. The Jets lost their second game in a row and fell to 8-7.

The Jets have playoff-caliber talent, but they are too sloppy to be a contender. Sunday's game alone saw a bevy of errors. The defense gave up big plays, receivers dropped passes, quarterback Mark Sanchez took an awful safety late in the game, and the offensive line made crucial penalties and mistakes.

Simply put, the Jets do not deserve to be in the playoffs this season. They've had three losing streaks of two games or more this season. The Jets aren't even the best team in the New York City area -- and both clubs are mediocre.

There is still a small chance the Jets get into the postseason. They trail the Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) by one game and are tied with three other teams in the AFC. The Jets must win next week against the Miami Dolphins and get a lot of help. Chances are slim, and I think their luck ran out this weekend.

2. Jets need major changes on offense

One of the biggest things the Jets must do this offseason is take a long, hard look at their offense. They must upgrade and improve depth at several positions, such as the offensive line and wide receiver. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer also must reconsider his game plans and strategies. The Jets' offense has become too predictable. Schotenheimer has been mentioned as a candidate for head-coach openings. But I think he's much more likely to return to the Jets.

Finally, the Jets still have more questions than answers with Sanchez. Is he the long-term solution? Is it a matter of giving Sanchez more support? Next season will be Sanchez's fourth season and the Jets cannot afford to keep waiting.

3. The Patriots will secure home-field advantage

The New England Patriots had a big scare Sunday, courtesy of the Dolphins. New England had an off day. But the Patriots did what title contenders should do and found a way to beat Miami 27-24.

The Dolphins led New England 17-0 at halftime. The Patriots were close to blowing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but quarterback Tom Brady wouldn't let that happen. Brady was masterful in the second half with three touchdowns (one passing, two rushing) to lead the comeback.

All New England must do is beat the visiting Buffalo Bills next week to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots should win that game, which will keep them at home until Indianapolis for Super Bowl XLVI. I predict New England will get there.

4. Dolphins are a team to watch ... in 2012

It's a shame the Dolphins started this season 0-7. I would be curious to see how far this group could go if it were competing for a playoff spot.

Miami has been good enough to compete with most teams in the second half of the season. The Dolphins are 5-3 in their past eight games, offering hope for the future with their new head coach.

5. Bills' Spiller is pretty good

Buffalo 2010 first-round pick C.J. Spiller is proving that he can be an every-down running back. He recorded his first 100-yard rushing game against a solid Denver Broncos defense. Buffalo won convincingly, 40-14.

Spiller rushed for a career-high 111 yards and a touchdown. The Bills have invested a lot of money in Spiller but also promised Fred Jackson that he would receive a contract extension.

Can Buffalo afford to give both running backs big money? Depth always is needed at the position. Buffalo could have a strong one-two punch if it decides to keep both.

Here are some thoughts on the Buffalo Bills' 40-14 victory over the Denver Broncos:

What it means: The Bills (6-9) avoided getting "Tebowed" and broke a season-high seven-game losing streak. Buffalo took a nine-point lead into the fourth quarter and finished strong by scoring 17 unanswered points. That was too much for any late-game magic from Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow, who was picked off four times by Buffalo. With the offense scoring points and the defense forcing turnovers, Buffalo played much like it did during its fast start in the first month of the season.

What I liked: Buffalo received a pair of huge contributions from its former first-round picks. Running back C.J. Spiller recorded his first career 100-yard rushing game with 111 yards and one touchdown. Spiller is doing a good job filling in for the injured Fred Jackson (leg). Cornerback Leodis McKelvin, also a former first-round pick, has been mostly a disappointment in the secondary. But McKelvin showed off his return skills with an 80-yard punt return for a touchdown. McKelvin also set a franchise record with 135 punt return yards. Buffalo's special teams made the difference in this game.

What I didn't like: There isn't much to complain about in this game from Buffalo's perspective. Buffalo's offense was 2-for-12 on third-down conversions. But that's nitpicking an otherwise very good performance by the Bills.

What's next: The Bills will conclude their season on New Year’s Day against the New England Patriots. It will be a rematch of Buffalo's 34-31 victory over the Patriots in Week 3.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. New York Jets: How do you explain a team on a three-game winning streak and fighting for a playoff spot laying the type of egg the Jets did on Sunday? You can't. Jets head coach Rex Ryan was shocked and at a loss for words after his team didn't show up in a 45-19 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Jets were flat-out beat in every phase. It was New York's worse loss in two years. Fortunately, New York (8-6) still controls its own destiny. The Jets need to win their final two games against the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins to secure the final seed in the AFC. Both are winnable games. But you just never know which Jets team will show up.

2. Buffalo Bills' third-down offense: What happened to Buffalo's offense? The Bills could not stay on the field in the first three quarters in a loss to the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo was 0-for-11 on third down and eventually fell behind 30-13. The offense warmed up in the fourth quarter, but it was too late. What's even more embarrassing is that Buffalo couldn't get a first-down conversion against Miami all season.

3. Wayne Hunter, Jets right tackle: Hunter allowed three sacks to Eagles defensive end Jason Babin. It was another poor performance in a string of bad games Hunter has had this season. The Jets have no depth at offensive tackle and are forced to keep the struggling Hunter in the lineup. He's pushed around way too often, which puts Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez at risk.

RISING

1. Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots tight end: The Denver Broncos were so focused on Rob Gronkowski that they forgot about New England's other tight end. Hernandez ran circles around the Broncos with nine catches for 129 yards and a touchdown. He killed single coverage and showed why he’s also one of the top tight ends in the NFL. Hernandez could be key for the Patriots in the playoffs if opponents continue to focus on "Gronk."

2. Reggie Bush, Dolphins running back: Bush is proving that he can be a feature back. Bush dominated Buffalo’s defense with 203 yards and a touchdown. Bush needs just 27 yards for his first 1,000-yard season. Many questioned the Bush signing in Miami, but Bush has proven to be one of the best free-agent signings in the AFC East.

3. C.J. Spiller, Bills running back: Spiller had his most complete game, albeit in a losing effort. The 2010 first-round pick rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Spiller also had nine receptions for 76 yards. He accounted for a majority of Buffalo's offense and is making a good impression after the season-ending leg injury to Fred Jackson. It remains to be seen whether Spiller can be a feature back, but he's showing potential.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 14:

Feeding frenzy: No team has been dominated by the AFC East this season more than the Kansas City Chiefs. They are 0-3 against the division and have been outscored an astounding 106-13. The Patriots (34-3), Buffalo Bills (41-7) and Miami Dolphins (31-3) all crushed Kansas City this year. The New York Jets get Kansas City on Sunday at MetLife Stadium. The Jets are 7-5, fighting for their playoff lives, and could do themselves a favor by completing the AFC East sweep.

Disappearing running game: One of the things lost in the New England Patriots' four-game winning streak is the sudden disappearance of their running game. New England has dropped to 21st in the league in rushing and hasn't had a 100-yard rusher since Week 5. The Patriots were successful running the football in the first half of the season. Naturally, they rely a lot on quarterback Tom Brady's arm. But it would help if the Patriots found some balance again before the playoffs.

Brady, others chasing Marino: Speaking of Brady, he has 3,916 yards passing and remains on pace to surpass Dan Marino's single-season record of 5,084 yards. But Brady is not alone. Both New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (4,031 yards) and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (3,844 yards) are on pace to pass Marino. Whoever throws for the most yards this year will own the NFL record by season's end. But the next two quarterbacks could be second and third all-time.

Moore's winning formula: Want to know the biggest ingredient for Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore's success? It's avoiding turnovers. In Moore's four wins as a starter, he's thrown seven touchdowns, one interception and has a 110.1 passer rating. This week the Dolphins play a Philadelphia Eagles team that has plenty of talent but struggles on defense. Philadelphia will have trouble beating Miami if Moore continues to take care of the football.

More Spiller: Buffalo running back C.J. Spiller continues his late-season audition against the San Diego Chargers. The season-ending leg injury to Fred Jackson has given Spiller, a former first-round pick, his first chance to be a full-time starter. Spiller is coming off the best game of his career last week against the Tennessee Titans, when he rushed for 83 yards and a touchdown. He could have had more, but the Bills went away from the running game too early. The Titans led throughout but were never too far ahead. Buffalo needs to run well to have a chance for the upset in San Diego. The Chargers have the NFL's 26th-ranked run defense. Spiller has a chance at his first 100-yard game if Buffalo sticks with the run.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Buffalo Bills' defense: Buffalo has lost five consecutive games, and the biggest reason is its inconsistent defense. The Bills can't stop the run or rush the passer. That leaves very little hope on game day. Buffalo had only one sack and allowed Tennessee Titans tailback Chris Johnson to rush for 153 yards and two touchdowns. Injuries to players such as defensive tackle Kyle Williams, linebacker Shawne Merriman and safety George Wilson have contributed to Buffalo's struggles. But the Bills need to make it a point in the offseason to add more depth and defensive playmakers.

2. New England Patriots' fourth-quarter defense: I'm not going to make a huge deal about it, but the Patriots allowed 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to the winless Indianapolis Colts. It's clear the Patriots took their foot off the pedal. But Indianapolis is 0-12 and had Dan Orlovsky at quarterback. The Colts shouldn't score 21 unanswered points against anybody. Before Sunday's game, the Colts had scored 21 points or more just once in an entire game. The Patriots allowed that many points in one period.

3. New York Jets' passing offense: There are times when the Jets' passing offense makes you scratch your head -- the quarterback misses throws or receivers will run the wrong routes and aren't on the same page. There has been a lot of that lately with the Jets, at least in the first three quarters. New York's passing game isn't waking up until the end of games, and that's saved the Jets in back-to-back weeks. Quarterback Mark Sanchez struggled against the Washington Redskins but saved his best throws for last. The Jets have little margin for error and need the passing game to be there consistently.

RISING

1. Miami Dolphins' running game: The Oakland Raiders were completely run over by Miami. The Dolphins recorded 209 rushing yards and had great performances from two tailbacks. Reggie Bush had 100 yards rushing and rookie Daniel Thomas added 73 yards on the ground. Miami's offensive line dominated in the trenches. It even led to frustration by Oakland defensive lineman Richard Seymour, who hit offensive lineman Richie Incognito in the face and was ejected.

2. C.J. Spiller, Bills running back: Spiller gets an unexpected and late audition to be the main running back in Buffalo. Fred Jackson's leg injury has the 2010 first-round pick in the spotlight. Based on Spiller's first two starts, he is making progress. He had his best game as a pro against Tennessee, running for a career-high 83 yards and a touchdown. Spiller could have done more. But Buffalo went away from the running game too early, despite Spiller's averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

3. Aaron Maybin, Jets linebacker: "Mayhem" continues to get to the quarterback for the Jets. Maybin recorded his third sack in two games in Sunday’s victory over Washington. Maybin, signed by the Jets in late September after he was released by the Bills, has quietly been a solid pickup for New York. Maybin's sacks are making an impact — he has five in New York's victories and just one in New York's losses.

Here are some thoughts on the Tennessee Titans' 23-17 victory over the Buffalo Bills.

What it means: The Bills' playoff hopes were hanging by a thread entering this weekend. Now, they are virtually over. Buffalo (5-7) lost for the seventh time in nine game. What's even more worrisome is the Bills haven't been competitive in most of those losses. Meanwhile, the Titans improved to 7-5 and remain in the AFC wild-card race.

What I like: Buffalo 2010 first-round pick C.J. Spiller showed flashes of being a lead running back Sunday. Spiller rushed for a career-high 83 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. This is a good opportunity for Spiller to showcase his talents with starting running back Fred Jackson (leg) out for the season.

What I didn’t like: Buffalo's defense needs to consider changes in the offseason. It's been, by far, the Bills' weakest link the entire season. Buffalo's front seven can't stop the run. Titans tailback Chris Johnson ran for 153 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. And Buffalo doesn’t rush the passer well. There is really nothing the Bills do consistently on defense and that needs to change.

FitzWatch: Buffalo starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick put up decent numbers, but it wasn't enough. Fitzpatrick tried to rally a late comeback and threw for 288 yards and a touchdown. He also lost a fumble. But with the touchdown, Fitzpatrick reached 20 passing touchdowns for the second consecutive seasons.

What's next: The Bills will travel to play the San Diego Chargers next week.

Lost in the chaos of Buffalo Bills receiver Steve Johnson's controversial touchdown celebration and the New York Jets' frantic finish was the first start at running back for Buffalo's C.J. Spiller.

He rushed for 55 yards and caught three passes for 15 yards in Buffalo's 28-24 loss to the Jets. He also returned a punt for nine yards.

The 2010 first-round pick showed flashes. But Spiller had his biggest issues running up the middle against the Jets' defense. That was Fred Jackson's specialty before his season-ending leg injury.

According to ESPN's Stats and Information, Spiller gained just 17 yards on six carries up the middle. He averaged just 2.8 yards per carry between the tackles. Jackson was third in the NFL running up the middle, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Jackson also led the league with six rushes up the middle for 20 yards or more.

Spiller and Jackson are two different runners. This is something Buffalo has to adjust to on offense now that Spiller is the starter for the remainder of the season. Using Spiller outside the tackles will lead to more success.