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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Buffalo Bills in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): It would be a dream for Bills fans to see their team back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. The last time we saw Buffalo make the postseason, the Bills were the victim of the “Music City Miracle” in 1999. It has been a long line of disappointments and underachieving since that historic play. (Many Bills fans still contend that was a forward pass, by the way.) This year’s team looks poised to break the streak. This is the best team, on paper, that Buffalo has had in a long time. The offense will be dangerous if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick improves his consistency in the passing game and Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and the running game stay consistent. Buffalo also made improvements to the defense, including drafting corner Stephon Gilmore in the first round and adding stud defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Chances are, everything won’t fall into place for Buffalo. But this is a sleeper team that does have a chance to make a jump and contend for the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): Despite all the additions, there is no guarantee the Bills and their coaching staff can bring it all together in one year. What if Fitzpatrick continues to play like the second half of 2011 and is not the long-term solution? What if the defense struggles to make the transition to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt? What if big injuries again decimate this team? A lot can go wrong for the Bills, especially in a division where the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots are expected to dominate. The Bills are trying to catch up and cannot afford to make many mistakes in the AFC East. They were 1-5 against division foes last year. Bills head coach Chan Gailey is only 10-22 in his first two years in Buffalo. He has more talent than he has ever had with the Bills. There are no excuses for Gailey this year. It’s still somewhat of a mystery whether Gailey can coach. But we will find out in 2012.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Bills and why.

Things are looking up for the Buffalo Bills. A team that finished 6-10 and in last place in the AFC East in 2011 had arguably the league's best offseason. The Bills acquired defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson in free agency, drafted first-round cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and gave contract extensions to in-house stars Fred Jackson and Steve Johnson.

But each move adds more pressure to third-year Bills coach Chan Gailey, who is 10-22 in his first two seasons in Buffalo.

Is Gailey a good NFL head coach? It's hard to say. Gailey was 18-14 in two seasons with the Dallas Cowboys before he was abruptly fired. Gailey still carries that sting after getting relieved without ever posting a losing season in Dallas. Gailey has struggled in Buffalo, but hasn't had nearly the same talent that he had with the Cowboys.

Talent is no longer a question this year in Buffalo. The Bills spent to the cap to nab top free agents, and many in-house players are coming into their own. Buffalo now has enough talent to make a playoff push. The question is, can Gailey and his staff put it all together?

This is a no-excuse year for Gailey. It's time to finally show what he can do in Buffalo with a bevy of talent at his disposal.

The quarterback controversy has already begun in Browns minicamp, Damien Woody thinks the Jets should skip "Hard Knocks" and Herm says Vince Young will be more than just a backup in Buffalo.

Any good news involving Buffalo Bills starting running back Fred Jackson most likely is bad news for backup C.J. Spiller. The 2010 first-round draft pick has patiently waited his turn for two seasons while Jackson, 31, steadily puts up numbers ahead of him.

Barring injury, Jackson should be the starter for the immediate future after signing a two-year, $9 million extension. Jackson is coming off a spectacular 10 games in 2011 before suffering a season-ending leg injury. Buffalo is confident he will bounce back and gave Jackson the pay raise he was looking for.

What does this mean for Spiller? It means Spiller will stay in a reserve role longer than he expected. Spiller, 24, is signed through 2014. He’s a budding talent who wants a chance to start. But Spiller could find himself in a backup role in Buffalo for a majority of his rookie contract as long as Jackson continues to play at a high level.

I asked coach Chan Gailey about his running back quandary during the NFL owners meetings in March. Gailey admitted he needs to do a better job of dividing carries between two of his top offensive players.

“There is only one football, and you got several guys who can make plays," Gailey said. "Everybody is not going to be happy. That's part of it. So, you do the best you can to try to use C.J. and Fred in different ways to get them the ball, because they're capable of making big plays when they have the ball in their hands."

Spiller is ready to turn his game up, but Jackson's game has been revved up for a while. It will be important for Spiller to make the most of his opportunities in 2012, even if he thinks it's not enough.

The scene at the AFC coaches' breakfast in Palm Beach, Fla., recently was fitting.

To my far left was New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan. He was surrounded by a large group of media that wanted to know how the Jets would handle Tim Tebow-mania and whether they could bounce back from a disappointing 2011.

To my immediate left was new Miami Dolphins coach Joe Philbin. A throng of reporters wondered what the rookie head coach had in store in his first season.

On my right was future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots. He continually gave non-answers about his team as reporters tried to dig up something -- anything -- about the reigning AFC champions.

In the middle of this madness was Buffalo Bills head coach Chan Gailey. His table was relatively empty most of the hourlong breakfast, with the exception of a few passers-by and this AFC East blogger. Few in the national media cared to know what Gailey and the Bills were up to. They're a small-market team that finished 6-10 last season and hasn't been to the playoffs in 13 years.

But by this time next year, people will be talking about Buffalo. The Bills are my sleeper pick in 2012. Here are five reasons why Buffalo will get over the hump and finish with a winning record:

Reason No. 1: Bills made right moves in free agency

Analysis: I will give myself a pat on the back. I was one of the first to note Buffalo's interest in two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams. Despite my prediction, I did not think Buffalo would be able to land the top defensive free agent on the market. But the Bills put on the full-court press and gave Williams 100 million reasons to join the Bills. Buffalo gained an elite pass-rusher and its first game-changer on defense. The Bills didn't stop there. They continued to improve their anemic pass-rush by signing former Patriots defensive end Mark Anderson, who recorded 10 sacks last year. Williams, Anderson and defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus make up one of the top defensive lines in the NFL. It's a group that can stop the run and get push up the middle while attacking the edges and pressuring the quarterback. Buffalo's talented front four will be a problem for a lot of teams next season. The Bills also retained their own key free agents. Buffalo re-signed No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson at an affordable rate they were comfortable with, as well as starting tight end Scott Chandler. There are still a few more holes Buffalo would like to fill. But the team is one of the biggest winners in free agency.

Reason No. 2: Double trouble at running back

Analysis: When they are healthy, there may not be a more dynamic running back duo in the NFL than Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. These two will be headaches for opposing defenses once Buffalo figures out how to blend both into the offense simultaneously. Jackson and Spiller could complement each other well. Buffalo's coaching staff admittedly did a poor job of balancing the two tailbacks last season. Jackson received a bulk of the carries when healthy, and Spiller finally showed what he could do at the end of the year once Jackson was injured. Now, both are hungry and want the football. Gailey called it "a great problem to have." Jackson is 31 and coming off a season-ending leg injury. That should open the door for Spiller to get more carries. Will it be a 50-50 split? Probably not. But the Buffalo offense will be dangerous if it can use Spiller and Jackson just enough to keep each fresh and productive the entire season.

Reason No. 3: AFC East is weakening

Analysis: A case can be made that the AFC East became a weaker division this offseason. The division wasn't very strong to begin with. Only the Patriots finished with a winning record in 2011. But the 6-10 Dolphins gutted their roster, getting rid of top players such as Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall and leading tackler and starting safety Yeremiah Bell. Miami also failed to land a franchise quarterback and settled on 34-year-old David Garrard as the potential starter next season. It's early, but it's hard to imagine Miami's finishing with a better record than last season. Meanwhile, the Jets are an aging team with chemistry issues. New York gave embattled quarterback Mark Sanchez a three-year contract extension and traded for popular backup Tebow, setting up a potentially explosive situation. The Jets will be on a year-long implosion watch, and their arrow could be trending downward after last year's mediocre 8-8 season. The Jets, Dolphins and Bills are all chasing the Patriots, who are clearly the favorites in the division. But the Bills, who split with New England last season, did a solid job to make up some ground.

Reason No. 4: Players are getting healthy

Analysis: I usually try to avoid the injury excuse, because every team has them. But I think it legitimately applies to the Bills. Buffalo suffered key injures last year at running back (Jackson), defensive tackle (Kyle Williams), linebacker (Shawne Merriman), offensive line (Eric Wood), receiver (Donald Jones) and even kicker (Rian Lindell), just to name a few. Bills starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick also played much of the season with a painful rib injury. By the second half of the year, the Bills didn't have anywhere near the same depth they had during their 4-1 start. Most of these players are expected to be back and healthy in 2012. Merriman is perhaps the biggest question mark after his second season-ending Achilles injury. But chances are slim that Buffalo will be hit this hard with injuries again. Health will be key for Buffalo to maintain a successful run over 16 games.

Reason No. 5: Bills have a top-10 pick

Analysis: The Bills have had a very productive offseason, but they aren't done yet. They still have a top-10 pick in this month's NFL draft. This is a great opportunity for Buffalo to plug more holes on the roster. The Bills could use a starting-caliber left tackle, another threat at receiver, a cover corner and depth at linebacker. The Bills also have more than $9 million in cap room to spend. Don't rule out late signings in free agency. After years of not spending to the cap, Buffalo tabbed 2012 as the year to make a push.

All of these reasons make the Bills my ideal sleeper pick for next season. Don't forget that you heard it here first.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- It was approximately 7:30 a.m. Tuesday, and a grumpy Bill Belichick wanted no part of discussing the AFC East's newest addition: Jets quarterback Tim Tebow.

"I'm just concentrating on our team," the New England Patriots coach said bluntly.

Does Tebow impact what the Patriots do defensively?

"I'm just trying to get better in the offseason, like we always do," Belichick scoffed.

The media kept trying with Tebow, but Belichick kept swatting it away.

"I'm trying to get ready with what we're doing," Belichick said. "I'm not really worried about the other three [division] teams."

Belichick wasn't interested in Tebow-mania. But, eventually, will Belichick's Patriots have a problem on their hands? Does the rest of the AFC East have a problem, as well?

"I think the Wildcat is alive and well," an excited Jets head coach Rex Ryan said this week at the NFL owners meeting.

Here's how Tebow and the Wildcat matches up with the other three teams in the AFC East. The Tebow trouble meter is based on a 10-point scale, with a 10 meaning he'll be a huge headache for a team to defend:

Patriots

Analysis: Tebow had mixed results against the Patriots in two games last season. Tebow had a field day in the first meeting, particularly early. He rushed for 93 yards and two touchdowns, as the Patriots seemed caught off-guard by Denver's offense in the regular season. The Broncos led 16-7 at one point before the Patriots' offense took over and scored 27 unanswered points. New England won 41-23.

The second meeting against Tebow was more one-sided in favor of the Patriots. New England was much more prepared for Tebow's read-option offense. He rushed for just 13 yards on five carries (2.6 yard average). Tebow actually gained 14 yards rushing on one play, but his other four attempts lost yards. Tebow also lost a fumble and New England won easily, 45-10.

In two games against New England, Tebow rushed for 107 yards and two touchdowns. The Patriots have to prove that their postseason performance against the Broncos is more indicative of how they will stop Tebow in 2012, as opposed to the regular-season meeting.

Tebow trouble meter: 7

Buffalo Bills

Analysis: The Bills were the most prepared team against Tebow and the Broncos last season. Buffalo pummeled Tebow in Week 16 in a 40-14 victory. He threw three interceptions in the game and also lost a fumble. It was one of Tebow's worst performances of the year.

Bills head coach Chan Gailey believes his team was well-prepared for Tebow's read-option offense because the Bills have their own Wildcat package featuring versatile receiver/quarterback Brad Smith. Gailey is hopeful Buffalo's success against Tebow continues next season.

"We will get some work against the Wildcat-type offense in training camp, if nothing else," Gailey said. "To be honest, one of the reasons we have it is we think it is a definite advantage. What we say is this, 'If you got something that's unusual, the coaches are going to take an hour to sit down and talk about it, and you get on the field and do a 10-minute walkthrough on the Wildcat and in practice, out of 45 plays, teams will take maybe five of them on the Wildcat.'"

It also helps that the Bills invested a ton of money this offseason on their defensive line. Free-agent defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson should do a great job setting the edge against the Wildcat, which is key. Buffalo's defense has had other issues in the past, such as rushing the quarterback. But I don't see Tebow and the Wildcat giving the Bills too many problems based on the additions and what I saw last season.

Tebow trouble meter: 4

Miami Dolphins

Analysis: The Dolphins are an interesting case. They were the masters of the Wildcat under former head coach Tony Sparano. Now, Sparano is bringing the package to the Jets as their new offensive coordinator.

"I think it's hilarious," Jets coach Rex Ryan said. "With Tony, everybody looks at this rough, tough, bloody-your-nose type of guy, which he is. But he’s very creative also, one of the most creative guys I’ve been around. I’m excited with what he can do with a guy with the skill set that Tim has."

There are still players on the Dolphins, both on offense and defense, who know the formation well.

However, Miami will be as far removed from the Wildcat as possible under first-year head coach Joe Philbin. The Dolphins are implementing a classic West Coast offense based on timing, precision and rhythm. The Wildcat goes against all that. So there won't be much prep time against Tebow until the week leading up to the Jets games.

Miami did a good job for more than three quarters against Tebow last season at Sun Life Stadium. Denver was scoreless until the final 2 minutes, 44 seconds of the game and pulled off a miraculous comeback by scoring 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and overtime. That game actually jump-started Tebow-mania.

Miami is stout against the run. But Tebow rushed for 59 yards and averaged 6.6 yards per carry against Miami. The Dolphins need to do a better job of stopping Tebow in their two meetings next season.

Tebow trouble meter: 7

Overall, Tebow has a chance to make an impact in the AFC East. But his success will vary, depending on the matchup. Tebow won't be able to win many games by himself with limited snaps as New York's backup quarterback. It will be up to starter Mark Sanchez to do his part with the passing offense for the Jets to reach their offensive potential.

One of the biggest offseason storylines in Buffalo this year is how the Bills will better share the football between starting running back Fred Jackson and 2010 first-round pick C.J. Spiller. Buffalo coach Chan Gailey addressed that dynamic at the NFL combine.

Both tailbacks are talented. But Jackson has been the primary ball carrier in Buffalo's offense, leaving Spiller mostly in a limited role until late in the season.

Spiller filled in well during the final six games after Jackson suffered a season-ending leg injury. Spiller rushed for 446 yards and five total touchdowns in that span to take momentum into the offseason.

"He could be an every down back. I don't see any reason he couldn't carry 20- 25 if he needed to," Gailey said of Spiller. "But he’s a valuable, versatile player. He can play wideout. We’re fortunate to have two very good backs. I’m going to try to make sure we keep them fresh and wear ‘em out at the same time. Does that make sense? But you want them to be on the field doing something, running routes, creating a threat for the defense."

Gailey added that Jackson is fully healed from his injury, which is good news for Buffalo. But the coaching staff has to figure out a way to use a healthy Jackson and Spiller next season to their full capabilities.

A report surfaced that Spiller is ready to turn up his game in Year 3 and compete for a starting role. That probably won't happen next season with Jackson still on the roster and about to get a contract extension. But Gailey said it's a good problem to have.

"If every guy I have on the team doesn't want to be a starter, I've got the wrong guys," Gailey said. "I want everybody to want to be a starter. But everybody's not. There's 11 of 'em. You have to learn to handle that. Whoever it is. You have to learn to handle it."

The Buffalo Bills are approaching the final weeks to exclusively negotiate with leading receiver Steve Johnson. The team is expected to continue talks with Johnson's representation at the NFL combine but reportedly remain far apart.

I've said all along that keeping Johnson in Buffalo is 50-50. The Bills have a firm idea of his worth to the team, and Johnson wants to be paid like a franchise receiver. Neither side has been able to close that gap since last year.

But in the event Johnson hits the open market next month and finds a more lucrative offer, the Bills must have a Plan B. Could that include Kansas City Chiefs receiver Dwayne Bowe? There are reasons Bowe, an unrestricted free agent, and the Bills could be a match.

Bills coach Chan Gailey was Kansas City's offensive coordinator in 2008, when Bowe set a career-high with 86 receptions. Gailey knows what Bowe can do, and Bowe proved he can fit in Gailey's offense.

Bowe and Johnson have put up comparable numbers the past two seasons. But Bowe is a more physical specimen and bigger game-breaker than Johnson. The Bills' front office may not want to pay Johnson approximately $8 million per season, but they may be willing to do that for Bowe. The AFC East blog ran a poll on how much Buffalo should pay Johnson, and a majority of readers picked $5-$7 million.

This is a strong year for free-agent receivers. Players like Johnson, Bowe, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston all have a chance to hit the open market.

The Bills need to find a No. 1 receiver if they strike out with Johnson, and Bowe has the strongest connection to the coaching staff.

Apparently Donte Whitner still has sour grapes from his exit last year with the Buffalo Bills. The San Francisco 49ers safety is in the middle of a playoff run and still found a way to rip his former team and former head coach Chan Gailey.

Whitner told the San Francisco Chronicle that the 49ers' culture under coach Jim Harbaugh is much better than what he had in Buffalo. Whitner added that Gailey would publicly assign blame when things were going bad.

According to the Chronicle, Whitner said Jets head coach Rex Ryan "will never throw his players under the bus, and he puts all the pressure on himself. Coach [Jim] Harbaugh does the same thing. A lot of coaches, when they don't want the pressure on them, don't want the hands pointed at them or the media to turn on them, they put things out to the media that really shouldn't be out there. 'Oh, this guy should have made this play or he should have done this.' That stuff never works, and players really understand that and locker rooms understand that."

Ouch!

The timing of this was random. Whitner had all offseason and even the regular season to rip Gailey and his former team. But to do it after the 49ers won the NFC West and has a first-round bye was convenient after a great year in San Francisco and a 6-10 year in Buffalo.

Whitner and the 49ers will host the New Orleans Saints Saturday in the divisional round.

On Wednesday Buffalo Bills head coach Chan Gailey ruled out running back Fred Jackson (leg) for their game Sunday against the New York Jets. This is a huge loss, as Jackson accounted for about 40 percent of Buffalo's offense.

Jackson seemed optimistic after Sunday's loss to the Miami Dolphins, but Gailey was much more cautious. It turns out the leg injury is more serious than Jackson thought. Gailey said Wednesday that he wasn't sure when Jackson would return.

The Jets (5-5) and Bills (5-5) desperately need this game. The loser of Sunday’s game will fall way behind in the wild-card race.

MIAMI -- Welcome to the AFC Least.

It's a place where the first-place team has the NFL's worst defense and the last-place team is the hottest in the division.

The two middle teams, well ... let's just say they personify the word "pretender." Just three days after the New York Jets were upset by Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos, the Bills also were embarrassed in an ugly, 35-8 loss to the Miami Dolphins.

Week 11 exposed the AFC East as a mediocre division. It's late November and only one team -- the New England Patriots (6-3) -- has a winning record. The Jets (5-5) and Bills (5-5) mathematically remain in the playoff hunt. But there's nothing to suggest either team is playoff bound or good enough to make a sustainable run down the stretch.

The Jets lost two games in five days. The Bills are 2-5 in their last seven and on a three-game losing streak. Buffalo has been outscored 109-26 the past three weeks.

"We're not a team that [should] go out and get beat 35-8 and 44-7 last week," Bills tight end Scott Chandler said. "I don’t know if there's any team in the league that loses like that week in and week out. We've been embarrassed the past three weeks."

The game was ugly for Buffalo. It included three straight touchdown drives allowed to start the game, two interceptions on dropped passes and a blocked punt for a touchdown.

Like the Jets a few days ago, bewilderment seemed to be the overall theme with the Bills. There's a lot of questions why this is happening and no one seems to have any answers.

"I wish I could give you an explanation," Bills coach Chan Gailey said bluntly. "I cannot give you an explanation."

Here is our explanation: The AFC East is not good this season.

It starts with the quarterbacks. The quarterbacking in this division has been awful in the past month and average overall this season. Buffalo's Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets' Mark Sanchez had good moments early. But both are crashing hard in this crucial time. The pair have combined for just four touchdowns and 12 interceptions in their past three games.

Tom Brady has been terrific, as usual, for New England. He's the biggest reason the Patriots are primed to win the division. New England usually falls when Brady has a bad game. The Patriots are too flawed in other areas to survive poor quarterback play on most weeks.

Miami's Matt Moore is playing like the second-best quarterback in the division, which is telling for the AFC East. He’s not making any mistakes and it’s led to Miami’s third straight victory. Moore threw for 160 yards and three touchdowns Sunday. These are numbers Fitzpatrick and Sanchez would love to have at this point.

Buffalo and New York also have inconsistent defenses. The Bills can’t stop anybody and New York, although stout, hasn’t performed up to the level of the previous two years. This combination has led to mediocrity for both teams.

The good news is the Bills and Jets play each other next week at Met Life Stadium. Some AFC East team has to win that game in what probably is a playoff eliminator for the loser.

"At this point every game is a must-win game," Bills safety Bryan Scott said. "We're moving to the last quarter of the season. We have to put together a string of wins in order to compete and get to where we want to be."

Chandler agrees.

"If you look at the big picture here, there's not too many teams that will get in with six losses," he said. "So, yeah, I think they're all must-wins from here on out."

Can the Jets or Bills suddenly run off a string of wins to get into the postseason? It will take at least 10 victories to make the playoffs in the AFC. That means Buffalo or New York has to go 5-1 the rest of the way. Even with relatively easy strength of schedules, I don't see it.

But the last-place team in the AFC East is actually playing the best football. The Dolphins (3-7) now have won three straight with victories over Buffalo, the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs. Miami looks like the team fighting for a playoff spot, not the Bills or Jets.

Is it time to rethink Miami's plan in 2012? Is Moore the long-term solution at quarterback? Should coach Tony Sparano and general manager Jeff Ireland keep their jobs for another season? These are all questions for Miami -- the AFC East's bottom team -- that will be resolved in time.

But we can draw one conclusion for the AFC East as a whole. It's a division mired in mediocrity.

TORONTO -- We are entering the month of November and guess who's in first place in the AFC East?

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it is the surprising Buffalo Bills (5-2).

Not only that, the offensive-minded Bills are starting to get improved play from their much-maligned defense near the midpoint of the season. That is a scary proposition.

What also is scary is the way the Bills played on Sunday. The Bills exploded out of their bye week, pummeling the Washington Redskins 23-0 in one of their most complete games of the season. Buffalo is back in first place via the head-to-head tiebreaker over the New England Patriots (5-2), who lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Bills went against every defensive trend it had this season against Washington (3-4).

Buffalo was the 31st-ranked defense entering Week 8, but held Washington to 178 yards. The Bills allowed 24.5 points in the first six games, but pitched a shutout for the first time since Dec. 17, 2006. Buffalo was last in the NFL with four sacks but astoundingly had nine against Redskins quarterback John Beck. It was the second-most sacks for Buffalo in franchise history.

It's safe to assume the offense will be there for the Bills. Buffalo has scored at least 20 points in every game this season. But how scary can the Bills be if their defense plays this well in the second half of the season?

"We can be unstoppable," Bills defensive lineman Spencer Johnson (one sack, one blocked field goal) said. "Everybody knows what our offense is capable of. We showed what we can do as a defense when we prepare and play together."

Bills first-round pick Marcell Dareus, who had his best game as a pro with four tackles and 2.5 sacks, also felt confident about the direction of the defense.

"I think the sky is the limit," Dareus said. "A lot of people questioned us stopping the run, playing flat and [not] playing a whole game. I think this is the first complete game our team has played. I think it’s only the beginning."

The overall feeling in Buffalo's locker room was that the defense knew it had this kind of performance in them. The Bills didn't feel they were nearly as bad as their defensive numbers suggested.

Buffalo's ability to disrupt Beck with ease led to a snowball effect for Washington.

The Redskins' banged-up offensive line was dominated at the line of scrimmage. Washington couldn't get the running game going (26 yards) and couldn't protect Beck long enough to make plays downfield. Beck was sacked nine times by eight Buffalo defenders.

Some weeks Buffalo had been close to getting sacks but couldn't finish. This week the Bills made the most of their opportunities.

"That would be the biggest understatement of the year -- that was amazing to go get nine sacks against that team," Bills coach Chan Gailey said. "They really worked hard at it during the bye week. ... I'll be honest with you, I didn't expect that."

Now, we have an interesting three-team race in the AFC East. The Bills (5-2), Patriots (5-2) and New York Jets (4-3) are all one game apart in the division. The AFC East is wide open and only two of these division teams most likely will make the playoffs.

Each team has its flaws. The Jets' weak link has been their inconsistency on offense, while New England and Buffalo have been up-and-down on defense.

That's why it was huge for Buffalo to put forth this defensive performance. The Bills at least put on film what they potentially can be on defense. It also provides much-needed momentum.

"As a group it feels like we are finally getting to the point where we’re together," Dareus said. "We've been trying to find that mold, that right fit at safety, corner, D-linemen up front. It's that good combination where we can really go out there and stop the run and get after the quarterback."

Beating a struggling Washington team was key for Buffalo. The Bills did themselves a great service by padding their record before a tough upcoming stretch.

The Bills will play three road games in November. But next week's home game against the Jets might be the biggest to date.

New York, which has won two in a row, also is playing great football. The Jets had two weeks to prepare. Therefore, expect coach Rex Ryan and Co. to throw everything they have at the Bills.

The first-place Bills put themselves in position to control their own destiny. Playing the Jets twice in November could turn out to be elimination games for one of them.

"New week is huge," Bills safety George Wilson said. "We're going back into the division, what we call 'two-fors.' By beating our division opponent, you essentially go up on them two games. So we have to continue to challenge, to be able to win our division so we're not having to depend on anybody."

As you get ready for the Washington Redskins' game against the Buffalo Bills this afternoon in Toronto, here's one reason for Redskins fans to be feeling good and one reason for concern:

Feeling good: The Bills are not a good defense against the run, allowing 136 yards per game on the ground to opponents. The Redskins' offense operates best when it's committed to the run. Even with starting running back Tim Hightower out for the season, they have two backs in Ryan Torain and Roy Helu who should be able to pile up yards and help them control the clock against the Bills.

Cause for concern: Buffalo doesn't yield many sacks, as quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is good at getting rid of the ball quickly and Chan Gailey has excelled at designing protections for him. So a Washington defense that's been shaky against the run and relies on getting to the quarterback could struggle if it doesn't find a way to contain star Buffalo running back Fred Jackson. The Redskins are leaning on their defense more than ever now with all of those offensive starters down with injuries. They'll need to limit Buffalo's scoring to have a chance.

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- With the game tied and 4:02 remaining, Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an untimely interception deep in New York Giants' territory.

It was an awful mistake by Fitzpatrick. But it also provided a golden opportunity for Buffalo's defense to pick up the offense, which had carried the team all season.

Instead, the Bills' defense allowed the Giants to march 76 yards in nine plays to set up the winning field goal during a 27-24 win for New York. Buffalo's defense offered little resistance when it mattered most and allowed 400-plus yards for the fifth straight game.

"If you want to be a good team, those are the drives where we have to come up with stops," said Bills veteran cornerback Terrence McGee, who had a game-high 11 tackles. "We did the best we could [to hold New York to a field goal]. But we want it to be where they don’t score anything."

Here is the harsh truth: Buffalo's defense is not at that point where it can carry the team. Keep an eye on this development the rest of the season. It could be the difference in the upstart Bills (4-2) making the postseason or watching the playoffs from home.

The numbers were once again ugly for Buffalo, which entered the weekend with the 30th-ranked defense. The Bills allowed 414 total yards, 24 first downs, three rushing touchdowns by Giants tailback Ahmad Bradshaw and didn't force a turnover for the first time all season. New York's five scoring drives were for 69, 84, 89, 75 and 76 yards.

Buffalo's offense was good but not great. The group registered 374 total yards and a respectable 24 points on the road. But every offensive mistake is magnified, because Buffalo's defense hasn't dominated an opponent since a 41-7 win against Kansas City in Week 1.

It is easy to look the other way when the offense outscores opponents, or the defense allows 400 yards but forces several big turnovers. But that is not happening often in Buffalo, and the spotlight is now on the defense after the team lost for the second time in three weeks.

"We have to improve," Bills safety George Wilson said. "If we expect to be able to get a playoff spot and expect to be able to win consistently, we have to. We're going into a bye week. We have some guys banged up and some things to work on. And we gotta get those things accomplished."

Here is how I rank the Bills' three biggest issues on defense:

1. Not winning individual battles: Buffalo rarely wins its one-on-one matchups -- whether it is a pass-rusher trying to beat an offensive lineman, or a defensive back making a key tackle in the open field to prevent a bigger play. The Bills, as a whole, do not have a lot of star power and it is showing every week. The biggest names on the defense are defensive tackle Kyle Williams and outside linebacker Shawne Merriman. Both were injured and didn't play against the Giants.

2. The blitz doesn't work: The Bills are last in the NFL in sacks. They have just four sacks in six games, including zero against New York. Part of this goes back to winning individual battles. But Buffalo has tried to turn up the blitzes in recent weeks, and it still has not disrupted offenses. Giants quarterback Eli Manning looked very comfortable in the pocket against Buffalo. He threw for 292 yards and had a 94.8 passer rating.

"We do have a problem. No bones about it," Bills coach Chan Gailey said. "And we tried to come after [Manning] with five on a lot of third downs in the first half: we still didn't get there. We're going to have to figure something out to generate some kind of pass rush."

3. Up-and-down corners: No group summarizes Buffalo's defense better this season than its cornerbacks. Drayton Florence and Leodis McKelvin have taken turns with bad performances. This week, it was Florence's turn to struggle. He had troubles with penalties and in coverage against Giants receiver Hakeem Nicks (four receptions, 96 yards). Nicks beat Florence for a big, 60-yard catch before halftime that led to a touchdown. Florence also had three pass-interference penalties for 45 yards trying to keep up with Nicks and fellow Giants receiver Mario Manningham (five receptions, 56 yards). McKelvin also had some inconsistent games earlier this season. Buffalo hopes the return of McGee will add depth and stability to this group.

If Buffalo's defense was marginally better and more consistent, who knows? The Bills might be 5-1 or even 6-0 right now. But six games in, you wonder if Buffalo's defense has the potential to drastically improve.

The Bills have a lot to fix during the bye. They won't take the field next until Oct. 30 against the Washington Redskins in Toronto.

But in the big picture, Buffalo is 4-2. Any Bills fans would have taken that record at the beginning of the season. Whether Buffalo continues winning at this pace will come down to the team's ability -- or inability -- to strengthen its weakest link.

Behind curtain No. 1 is a veteran team with a lost identity. It used to run the ball well and shut down opponents defensively. Now, doing either is uncertain week to week. The team behind curtain No. 1 has lost its swagger. It is on a two-game losing streak and experiencing infighting, injuries and other distractions.

Behind curtain No. 2 is an upstart team that captured the imagination of the NFL. This group lacks star power. But the players are fun to watch, because they are young and fearless. But they are also immature, which prevented this team from a 4-0 start.

Who are the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills? And where do they fit in the NFL's big picture in 2011? We are about to find out with a pair of gut-check games in Week 5.

The Jets and Bills both have potentially season-defining games on Sunday. New York (2-2) will look to avoid a three-game losing streak when it travels to play the New England Patriots (3-1). The Bills (3-1) have a chance to bury the "Dream Team" Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) after Buffalo's disappointing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

By Sunday evening, it will be much easier to separate the pretenders and contenders in the AFC East.

"I think they're both pretenders," Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said. "The only contender, I think, in that division is New England. In terms of franchises, I think the Bills are going up. The Jets might be slightly going down. I'm not a [quarterback Mark] Sanchez fan. I know he's had success in the playoffs, but I just don't believe in him. The Bills still have work to do."

The Jets have lost their edge. New York was pounded by the Oakland Raiders and Baltimore Ravens in back-to-back weeks by a combined score of 68-41. This is the Jets' third consecutive road game. It comes at one of the league's toughest venues: Gillette Stadium.

This buildup is similar to the Jets-Patriots playoff meeting this past January. Everyone is praising New England and bashing the Jets. New York banded together and pulled off the 28-21 upset victory to advance to the AFC Championship Game. Jets head coach Rex Ryan hopes his team responds with the same fight on Sunday.

"I don't think a whole lot of people gave us a chance, but everybody in our locker room thought we had a chance," Ryan recalled this week. "I think everybody wants to forget that we had beaten New England earlier in the year. They just focus on that 45-3 nightmare, but we knew we were a heck of a lot better football team than that."

Add Williamson to the list of people who don't believe the Jets have a chance. New York is more than a touchdown underdog.

"To me, New England is a way better team than they are, so I don't really have expectations that the Jets are going to be able to hang with these guys," Williamson said. "I know the history. I know they beat New England in the playoffs. But if they don't get blown out, I would look at it as 'OK, the Jets are better than I think they are.' I think the Jets are going to get killed."

The Jets want to go back to ground-and-pound football on offense but have shown no evidence that they can still do it. New York is ranked 30th in rushing. The offensive line is horrendous and starting tailback Shonn Greene is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.

The Jets can't beat the Patriots in a shootout. New York's best chance is to control the clock by running the ball against New England's last-ranked defense. Getting Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold (ankle) back for this game will help. But the Jets remain a long shot to avoid a three-game losing streak.

The Bills are in a different situation but are still seeking contender status. Many thought they had arrived after they upset the Patriots at home in Week 3. But the Bills, who have a lot of young players, didn't handle success well. They suffered a letdown and played their worst game of the season in a 23-20 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Questions are plentiful for both the Bills and Eagles. Many wonder whether Buffalo is good enough to sustain its fast start. Philadelphia already is in a must-win situation and cannot afford to fall to 1-4.

"We're both angry and that's going to make a great game," Bills receiver Steve Johnson said. "We feel like we should've won [last week]. They're supposedly the dream team and feel like they should be undefeated right now so they're pissed off and we're pissed off. It's going to be great for the fans, and it's going to be great for the NFL."

On paper, Philadelphia’s star-studded offense could be a matchup nightmare for the Bills. Buffalo’s defense is ranked No. 27 in the NFL. It gives up a lot of yards and has trouble getting to the quarterback.

"We play sporadically and that's not good for a defense," Bills coach Chan Gailey said. "We'll look really good at times and then we just don't play well at all at times. I think if I had to say one thing, I've seen us do it, so I know we're capable. So if I had to say one thing we’ve got to create more consistency on defense."

New York and Buffalo don't inspire much faith. All eight ESPN experts picked the Patriots to beat the Jets. Seven of eight picked the Eagles to get on track against Buffalo. If the Jets and Bills truly are contenders, this is the weekend to prove their critics wrong.

What will we see behind curtain No. 1 and curtain No. 2 when it's pulled away on Sunday?