ESPN NFL

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Green Bay Packers in 2012.

Dream scenario (16-0): The Packers' passing offense picks up where it left off in a record-breaking 2011 season. The scheme is enhanced by a new approach to the running game, center Jeff Saturday takes over a leadership role from the departed Scott Wells and Marshall Newhouse proves to be a franchise left tackle. The defense rebounds from last season's slump thanks to the infusion of draft picks Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy and Mike Daniels. The Packers find a suitable long-term replacement for safety Nick Collins and, a season after falling five points short of a perfect season, the Packers pull it off in 2012.

Nightmare scenario (8-8): The Packers' running game falters when presumed starter James Starks can't stay on the field. Opponents find new ways to approach the Packers' passing game and the defense isn't any better because their slew of rookies aren't ready to play yet. Veteran Charles Woodson is forced to move to safety, and the Packers don't have a suitable replacement for him at cornerback. Despite these problems, it's hard to imagine the Packers finishing below .500.

Fans of NFC North teams might be aware of the Griese-Hutchinson-Woodson fundraising weekend, which includes a gala and a golf outing to benefit the University of Michigan C.S. Mott Children's Hospital. The headliners include former Minnesota Vikings guard Steve Hutchinson and Green Bay Packers cornerback Charles Woodson, both of whom played at Michigan along with former NFL quarterback Brian Griese.

Based on local reports, it sounds as if another NFC North player made a really nice charitable gesture during the Saturday auction. Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford bid $15,000 for a gift that included six tickets to the Lions' Oct. 22 game against the Chicago Bears on ESPN's "Monday Night Football," according to Angelique S. Chengelis of the Detroit News.

Stafford had already donated the tickets to the event and, along with his girlfriend Kelly Hall, had been sitting with a girl named Faith Falzone, who is scheduled to have surgery this week. Stafford plans to give the tickets to Falzone and her family.

In a text message to the News, Stafford said: "They have been through so much in the past couple years, and to see how much they all supported each other and faith through their tough times was really inspiring. I wanted to give them something they could really be excited about and something I know they deserved."

Hutchinson was particularly moved by Stafford's commitment to being involved in the Michigan community. Stafford is from Texas and played at Georgia.

"Let's be honest," said Hutchinson, who is now with the Tennessee Titans. "The state of Michigan hasn't gone through the greatest times with the economy and the jobs around here. To have a guy that's from Georgia get drafted by the Lions and be a very integral part of that team turning their franchise around and then to be able to come to a U-M event that he has no affiliation with and donate $15,000 and buy his own tickets that he donated and then give them to a family whose daughter is going to have surgery in the next couple days here ... you couldn't write a better fictional story if you had to."

This is not to single out Stafford as the only charitable player in our division. As we've noted before, Vikings running back Adrian Peterson donated $1 million to the University of Oklahoma last month. Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has pledged more than $2 million to the University of Nebraska. And Woodson hasgiven $2 million to the Michigan children's hospital that benefited from this weekend's efforts.

But impact comes in all shapes, sizes and denominations. Stafford's gift will no doubt leave an intense impression on one family, giving it something to look forward to and cherish for some time.

Thursday's Big Question series was intended mostly as a post-draft gathering point than an attempt to break new ground, but many of you were left with further questions about the Green Bay Packers' open safety position after reading the post. Lance of Beloit, Wis., writes:

Are Charlie Peprah and Jerron McMillian the only to viable options to replace Nick Collins? I have read reports that Charles Woodson may be moved to safety. Casey Hayward would be moved into Woodson's starting role. This was talked about on the Packers' website. I see this being an option also replace Collins and prolong Woodson career like Rod Woodson and Ronnie Lott.

Yes, Packers.com guru Vic Ketchman wrote: "[C]onsensus opinion is that a move from cornerback could do for Woodson’s career what it did for Ronnie Lott and Rod Woodson, which is to have lengthened its greatness." And defensive coordinator Dom Capers didn't exactly reject the idea last week after the Packers not only drafted McMillian, but also cornerback Casey Hayward.

"Charles is a bright guy," Capers said. "It's not like it would be a radical move because of the way we've used him in the last three years, basically. We feel he can play any one of those positions. That's one of the things he brings to the table is the flexibility that he gives you that he can."

Capers uses one of the more creative schemes in the game, and in some of his more elaborate formations, it's difficult to tell who is playing what position. Technically, Woodson has lined up as a cornerback, a slot nickel man and as a linebacker at various times over the past three years. The only way to tell if Woodson is a full-time safety is if he lines up there in the rare occasions when the Packers use their standard 3-4 base formation.

We've hit this topic often both in the blog and our weekly SportsNation chats. My take remains the same. Cornerback is a more important position and more difficult position than safety. Moving Woodson to safety only makes sense if the Packers have a strong option to replace him at cornerback.

Is that the case? Last year at this time, we might have thought Sam Shields was ready for that role. Shields took a step back last season. Could Hayward be that player? That might be a lot to ask a rookie. In February, at least, coach Mike McCarthy strongly implied that Woodson primarily will be a cornerback in 2012.

McCarthy could change his mind, of course, but at this point I wonder if he's more willing to take a chance with an unproven player at safety than he is at cornerback.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- In recent years, I would arrive at the NFL owners meetings in late March to annual questions on the Green Bay Packers' apparent abdication of the free-agent market. What are the Packers up to? That's what officials from other teams wanted to know. My answer was always the same: This isn't Packers season. That starts at the end of April.

This year? Not so much. Last week, center Jeff Saturday became the first unrestricted free agent to sign with the Packers in three years. The team also hosted defensive lineman Anthony Hargrove on a visit, and reports suggest defensive end Dave Tollefson and offensive tackle Demetrius Bell could also visit in the next week or so.

Already, it's the most active stretch of free agency for general manager Ted Thompson since 2006, when he signed defensive lineman Ryan Pickett and cornerback Charles Woodson. Indeed, as of Tuesday, Pickett, Woodson and Saturday remain the only players on the Packers' roster to have been acquired as an unrestricted free agent.

What has gotten into Thompson? Did the Packers' early exit from the 2011 playoffs spur a change of philosophy? Did somebody sprinkle the Lambeau Field coffee with extra caffeine?

Not if you ask Thompson, as a few of us did this week here at the NFL owners meetings. Thompson smiled and said: "I know you guys don't believe me. But we're always active in free agency."

Right. And I hit the treadmill every day, too.

Thompson added: "There have been years, a couple years in a row when we haven't actually signed anybody. It doesn't mean that we weren't active, pursuing leads, trying to understand the market, doing all of that. … Sometimes the market runs away from you, and you keep your hands in your pocket."

In all seriousness, it's not as if the Packers have stayed pat as a rule over the years. In 2009, for example, they expressed interest in defensive lineman Chris Canty but wouldn't make him an offer before he visited Green Bay, as he demanded.

Still, it's hard to look at what's happened so far in 2012 and write it off as random. Given his druthers, I think we know Thompson would prefer to remain in the background in March. So I see at least a couple issues at play here.

First, and most important, the Packers have encountered what I could call "Ted Thompson's Imperfect Storm." The Packers have specific needs at important positions where depth is thin and the draft provides an untenable risk. That was certainly the case at center, a position that might rank second to quarterback in order of importance in the Packers' offense and had no obvious heir on the roster.

Thompson acknowledged that teams have found immediate starters at center in the draft, but that player almost certainly couldn't shoulder the play-calling responsibilities of a Packers center even if he was physically ready to compete with NFL-caliber defensive linemen.

In his typical understated way, Thompson said: "I think it's an important position. The whole makeup on our offense. We asked [former center Scott Wells] to do a lot. We'll ask Jeff to do a lot. … I do think in free agency you're able to target more specific things as opposed to the draft when we try to take the best player."

The same could be said of the Packers' clear focus on pass-rushers. The Packers have a clear need for a right end and an outside linebacker to play opposite Clay Matthews. But in the current pass-happy era of the NFL, you better believe that the other 31 teams are deeply in need of pass-rushers as well. Now more than ever, the Packers would be foolish to close the door on every possible avenue for upgrades.

Second, I wonder if the Packers weren't at least cautioned by their experience with former defensive end Cullen Jenkins last year. Their anticipated succession plan, 2010 second-round draft pick Mike Neal, suffered a training camp knee injury and made little impact. It's difficult to project injuries, even for a player like Neal who has endured more than his share. But the Packers' diminished pass rush made a huge impact on their defensive struggles, thus highlighting the risk in counting on unestablished players at key positions.

Every team would love to follow the Packers' style from recent years, relying almost entirely on drafted players to win the Super Bowl. But you wonder if they were the exception to the rule. Even the best teams need help from the outside at least occasionally, and credit Thompson for acting on that -- even if he did it with his nose pinched and his eyes closed tightly.

Yes, Thompson admitted that he wasn't at Lambeau Field when Saturday arrived last week for his recruiting visit. He was at Iowa's pro day instead. He called Saturday to make sure there would be no hard feelings about his absence and said it was more critical for coach Mike McCarthy to handle the visit. To quote one of my favorite movies: Small moves, Ellie. Small moves.

To help muddle through our first weekend without football in six months, let's take a look at Mel Kiper Jr.'s NFC North-heavy analysis of the top veteran players whose eventual replacement should comprise at least a part of his team's offseason. You'll need an Insider subscription to see the whole file, but I can pass along the three players Kiper listed with connections to us.

Jeff Backus, Detroit Lions left tackle

Seifert comment: We discussed Backus' status a few weeks ago. He will turn 35, just had major surgery to repair a torn biceps muscle and is a pending free agent. The Lions don't have an obvious internal replacement, making it quite possible they will bring back Backus for 2012. Still, it would make sense to at least start the process of acquiring a successor, either through the draft or free agency.

Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears middle linebacker

Seifert comment: Although he played at a high level throughout 2011, Urlacher will turn 34 in May and plays a high-impact position. As we discussed last week, the Bears have nothing close to an heir apparent on hand. Replenishing the Bears' defensive depth should be one of the top priorities of new general manager Phil Emery.

Charles Woodson, Green Bay Packers cornerback

Comment: Woodson played well enough to earn All-Pro honors for the third consecutive season in 2011, but he will turn 36 in October. We discussed the possibility of moving him to safety last month, if starter Nick Collins (neck) is forced to retire. But even if Woodson remains at cornerback for 2012, the Packers will eventually need reinforcement at the position.

Remember, Kiper -- as would any good general manager -- made his analysis based on the long-term horizon for each player and team. Backus, Urlacher and Woodson seem likely to play substantial roles for their teams next season. But it's better to be ahead of the curve than behind it.

We noted Thursday that NFL teams will face tight salary cap situations for the first time in years. A few hours later, the cap-related cuts started coming -- leading with the Oakland Raiders' decision to release cornerback Stanford Routt.

There were cash considerations in Routt's departure as well; he was reportedly due a $5 million bonus if he was on the Raiders' roster Friday. But Routt is a talented player who has six interceptions and 28 defensed passes in the past two seasons, and almost immediately you began filling the mailbag with questions about potential connections with NFC North teams.

Nick of Columbus, Ohio, wrote: "What might the chances be of [Green Bay Packers general manager] Ted Thompson going for another Oakland free agent cornerback? Maybe they could pair him with Tramon Williams on the other side, and move Charles Woodson to safety if Nick Collins still needs time, or if his career ends.

You could make a reasonable argument that all four NFC North teams have a need at cornerback, if in fact the Packers move Woodson to safety -- which is by no means a certainty. The Chicago Bears ended last season with uncertainty opposite Charles Tillman, the Minnesota Vikings had one of the worst pass defenses in NFL history and the Detroit Lions are facing the pending free agency of starter Eric Wright.

Generally speaking, I'm not going to post an item on the chances of every available veteran landing in the NFC North -- unless there is a reason to think it might or should happen. But this is the start of the speculation season, and I figured we should celebrate.

Alas, two non-division teams have jumped to the front of the line for Routt's services. He has visits scheduled with the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans. We'll let you know if an NFC North team comes into play for Routt or any other free agent.

*Update: The Vikings are one of five teams that have inquired about Routt, according to ESPNDallas.com's Calvin Watkins. The others, including the Bills and Titans, are the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys. At this point, Routt's only scheduled visits are with the Bills and Titans.

Green Bay Packers cornerback Charles Woodson is the sixth and final member of the NFC North to be added to ESPN.com's Any Era team, determined by a panel of 20 Hall of Fame players. A sampling of their thoughts:

LARRY CSONKA

"Charles Woodson isn't a hardass, but he's tough. He would have had an even better nose back when we played. It wasn't a game of inches back then as much as it is today. He would've been in the middle, picking off passes. I just like to watch him play."

MARCUS ALLEN

"Let’s give Charles Woodson some love. I like the way he plays. Not only is he great at larceny, but he can tackle too. He tackles and he'll come up and hit you. He's not defined by the corners today, who think their only responsibility is to cover wide receivers. He can hit somebody, too."

Seth from Newport News, Va., says the ESPN.com/ESPN The Magazine's NFL Any Era team "is a joke" if the St. Louis Rams' Steven Jackson does not appear on the list.

Mike Sando: Jackson did not appear on the list. Tim Tebow did. That seems wrong. We do not even know for sure whether Tebow will be good in this era, do we?

The overall list is strong. Ray Lewis, Troy Polamalu, Charles Woodson, Brian Urlacher, Patrick Willis, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ed Reed, Darrelle Revis, Jared Allen and Dwight Freeney are among those listed.

I thought the San Francisco 49ers' Justin Smith was an obvious omission among those watching him play regularly. But how many people, Hall of Famers or otherwise, have watched the 49ers' defensive line in recent seasons?

People should know plenty about Steven Jackson, because he carries the ball and, quite frequently, defenders trying to tackle him. Seth is surely right about the Rams' poor record hurting Jackson in these types of polls.

In retrospect, I should have broken out an item about Jackson's omission without any prompting. He has demonstrated all the necessary qualities -- toughness, grit, consistency, leadership, versatility, production -- to make him a timeless player. Very few running backs have run with more ferocity than Jackson.

The way Jackson has played through injuries becomes more impressive when we consider the stakes for his team were relatively low. I'll never forget watching him slam himself into the 49ers' defense while trailing 35-0 a few years ago. He made a statement to his teammates and anyone watching. Circumstances would not diminish what he represented. I'll also never forget how he fought through a 2009 back injury that would require surgery. He started 15 games even though his team was 1-15 that season.

A lesser man -- even a normal one -- would have shut it down late in that season. What was the point? Jackson refused to do that. He kept coming back for more and finished with 324 carries, the second-highest total of his career.

Jackson was clearly qualified for the Any Era team. So were Larry Fitzgerald and others. But as with voting for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, there are usually more worthy candidates than spots available for enshrinement. That means very good candidates do not always get their due, at least right away. That should not diminish them in any way.

Previewing some of the big decisions facing NFC North teams early in the 2012 offseason:

Ever since the Green Bay Packers temporarily shifted him to safety in 2008, the question has followed cornerback Charles Woodson: When would the move become permanent? After all, you don't often see players in their mid-30s locking down one of the most difficult positions in the NFL.

Subsequently, Woodson has received the NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award (2009) and three consecutive All-Pro honors. At the end of his 14th season, at the age of 35, Woodson was arguably the best cornerback on the Packers' roster. It's more difficult to find a cornerback than a safety, but would moving Woodson help make the Packers' defense better overall next season?

The Packers will at least consider that question as they await word on the status of Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins, who is two months away from finding out if doctors will clear him to play or recommend retirement because of a serious neck injury suffered in September. If Collins returns, he could team with strong safety Morgan Burnett in 2012. If not, Woodson might be the Packers' best option if they want to improve their tackling at the position.

Coach Mike McCarthy termed the discussion "very premature" during a news conference Wednesday but did not rule it out. "We're not making any position changes today," he said.

Collins' replacement, Charlie Peprah, didn't play well in Sunday's divisional playoff game to the New York Giants, missing a tackle on Hakeem Nicks' 66-yard touchdown catch and, like Woodson, failing to break up a Hail Mary pass to Nicks at the end of the first half. The sure-tackling Woodson would presumably be an upgrade over Peprah, but as we've discussed many times, the move doesn't make sense unless the Packers have a credible cornerback to take his place.

A few months ago, it would have been reasonable to think Tramon Williams and Sam Shields could hold down the two primary cornerback positions moving forward. The Packers also invested a 2011 fourth-round draft pick in cornerback Davon House, a potential nickelback with a year of development. But while they each intercepted four passes, neither Williams nor Shields played as well in 2011 as they did in 2010. House, meanwhile, was deactivated for 14 of 16 games.

That makes the Woodson issue complicated. If you're going to have a hole on defense, it makes more sense for it to be at safety than cornerback. But would the Packers be better off with a foursome of Williams, Shields, Woodson and Burnett than Woodson, Williams, Burnett and Peprah?

I think you could make that argument. But in the end, Woodson's status probably will be contingent on a number of outside factors: Collins' health, whether the Packers can find instant reinforcements at safety or cornerback in the draft and whether Williams or Shields can use the offseason to restore themselves to 2010 levels.

As you read this, Green Bay Packers players are scattering around the country, having vacated Lambeau Field weeks earlier than anyone expected. Instead of game-planning for the NFC Championship Game, coaches are reviewing the season and in some cases interviewing for jobs elsewhere. Rather than finalizing plans for an early-February trip to Indianapolis and Super Bowl XLVI, fans are canceling hotel reservations and blocking off training camp dates on their long-term calendars.

How did we get here? How did the Packers become the first 15-win team in NFL history to lose their opening playoff game? Why won't the best team of the 2011 regular season get a sniff of defending its Super Bowl title?

We came down pretty hard on a series of mistakes by the Packers offense Sunday. With a few days to reflect, let's acknowledge some additional factors that sparked a 37-20 loss to the New York Giants.

Theory: Rust



Quarterback Aaron Rodgers scoffed at the notion last week. "Not worried about it," he said. "Still not worried about it. Don't believe in it."

But here are the facts: Rodgers hadn't played in a game in 21 days, which was also the last time the Packers had a game with future implications. Receiver Greg Jennings hadn't played in five weeks. Overall, the Packers dropped six passes, tied for the most by any team in any game this season, and committed a season-high four turnovers.

To be sure, Rodgers was not at his sharpest Sunday. Through three quarters, he had barely completed 50 percent of his passes. Obviously the drops hurt his percentage, but he also missed two throws -- a first-quarter pass to a wide-open Jennings, and a fourth-quarter pass to tight end Jermichael Finley on third down -- that he routinely makes.

As the chart shows, five No. 1 seeds have rested their quarterbacks in Week 17 since the current postseason structure was implemented in 2002. Only one of them, the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees, won the Super Bowl.

With that said, I think it would be too convenient to say simply that Rodgers should have played in the Packers' Week 17 game against the Detroit Lions. I wonder if the missing element is not the act of playing but the weekly urgency of a playoff chase. Rodgers and the rest of the Packers offense wouldn't have benefited from that vibe even if he had been in the lineup.

Rodgers had an exceptional game as a scrambler, converting five of his six runs into first downs. But as a passer, it was his lowest-rated game of the season (78.5).

Conclusion: Reasonable people can disagree on this issue. But whether you attribute it to inactivity or unfortunate coincidence, the Packers were sloppy with the ball, less precise and in many cases a step slower than the Giants on Sunday. If they weren't rusty, they sure weren't sharp.

Theory: Ineffective pass rush

The Packers finished the season with more interceptions (31) than sacks (29), a sign of year-long pass rushing issues. So in one sense, it's difficult to blame an aspect the Packers had overcome for 15 victories this season.

On closer inspection, however, we see that the Giants made most of their big plays when the Packers either played back in coverage or were otherwise unable to pressure quarterback Eli Manning.

All three of Manning's touchdown passes came on plays the Packers sent four or fewer pass rushers, according to ESPN Stats & Information. All told, Manning was under duress -- defined as a play where the quarterback has to move or alter his throw because of pressure -- on only 10 of his 33 passes.

On two of the three touchdowns, the Packers compounded their lack of pass rush by poor play in the secondary. Safety Charlie Peprah missed a tackle on Hakeem Nicks' 66-yard touchdown, and neither Peprah nor cornerback Charles Woodson were able to knock down the Hail Mary pass Nicks pulled in just before halftime.

The Packers had hoped to beat Manning with coverage, but he picked them apart every time they gave him an opportunity.

"When you're only rushing three [or four], and you have eight guys in coverage, you'd like to think you're pretty good on that," defensive lineman B.J. Raji said. "That wasn't the case."

Conclusion: This was a rare game when the Packers offense couldn't compensate for the defense's shortcomings. That places a portion of the blame with the defense.

Theory: The Packers are a different team in winter weather

As we discussed during the 2010 playoffs, the Packers excel and in many ways favor the fast track afforded by indoor stadiums at this time of year. They managed to grind out a victory at Philadelphia in the wild-card round (21 points) and another over the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship Game (21), but by far their best offensive performances came in the Georgia Dome (48) and at Cowboys Stadium in Super Bowl XLV (31 points).

During the 2011 regular season, the Packers played three games indoors. Rodgers averaged 10.1 yards per attempt in those games and 9.0 yards per attempt in the 13 outdoor games. That's not exactly a smoking gun, and the it's only fair to point out the Packers scored 80 points in their final two regular season home games.

The temperature Sunday at kickoff was 31 degrees and there hadn't been precipitation for more than 24 hours.

Conclusion: It's tough to blame the weather for the Packers' offensive problems. That said, history tells us they would have been better off playing indoors.

And a few more quick hitters:

Theory: Finding motivation as a defending champion is tough

Via Twitter, @unwantedopinion wrote: "I think a major problem was recreating the motivation they had last season. When you're SB Champs & 15-1, what drives you?"

Conclusion: You would think motivation is more likely to be an issue during the regular season. But there is no doubt the Giants had a bounce in their step the Packers never demonstrated. Does it take a year or two of disappointment to build the fire necessary to mount a playoff run? I might buy that.

Theory: The Packers were distracted and/or sapped by the impact of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's family tragedy.

Conclusion: There is little doubt the Packers struggled mid-week with the death of Philbin's son. Did it take some of their edge away? Too convenient, in my opinion. Even if it did, shouldn't they also have received a bounce from Joe Philbin's return to the team?

Theory: The Packers, their fans and much of the media came to expect a level of precision that isn’t sustainable.

Conclusion: We all shook our heads at some of the passes Rodgers completed this season to receivers who appeared blanketed. It stands to reason that a playoff opponent might be better equipped to defend such passes. Perhaps everyone, including the Packers, came to assume they could keep making plays that no one else could.

Theory: The Giants presented a unique matchup.

Conclusion: The most sustainable defensive model in 2011 is to field four strong pass rushers up front and devote everyone else to coverage. The Giants did that Sunday better than any Packers opponent this season. The Packers were forced to work underneath, eliminating their chances for an easy touchdown and increasing the opportunities for mistakes.

Your thoughts? I'm sure they're coming….

(Note: I hope everyone is good with pushing forward on our football discussion even as the Green Bay Packers are mourning the death of a family member. I considered holding off out of respect for those impacted by the death of Michael Philbin, but in the end I think we can be respectful while also providing an outlet for those who want to read about Sunday's divisional playoff game.)

Fear is a strong word. I don't think the Green Bay Packers fear the consequences of their historically porous pass defense. They won 15 games with it during the regular season, after all. I'm not even sure they're worried about it. They discovered and have implemented the antidote throughout the past four months.

But if you're someone who likes to conceive the worst-case scenario, you don't have to think too hard.

The Packers tripped only once this season despite giving up an NFL-record 4,796 passing yards, mostly because they intercepted a league-leading 31 passes. In the playoffs, of course, the quarterbacks are better and less prone to mistakes. The Packers could face a Pro Bowl quarterback at every step between now and Super Bowl XLVI.

The bottom line: If an elite quarterback gashes them for yards but avoids the interceptions, he could knock the Packers out of the playoffs.

To be sure, there have been all kinds of attempts to poke holes in the Packers' near-perfect season. To me, this is the one instance with merit. The Packers' only loss this season came when Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Kyle Orton threw for 299 yards with no interceptions -- the only game this season the Packers didn't create at least one turnover.

First up this postseason will be the New York Giants' Eli Manning, who fell 67 yards shy of a 5,000-yard season and threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 13 loss to the Packers. The final score was 38-35, and the Packers' scoring included linebacker Clay Matthews' return of an interception for a touchdown.

With the exception of a few pointed statements from cornerback Charles Woodson, the issue has mostly bubbled below the surface. But speaking late in the regular season, Woodson reiterated his concerns about the defense's aptitude for postseason football.

"Defensively we still have some problems," Woodson said after the Packers allowed 441 total yards in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears. "We just give up way too many things on a consistent basis, so we have a long way to go. … Just not playing good football at times. We've been consistently inconsistent throughout the season. It's on each man to get it done. Moving forward we have a great opportunity. … Everybody on this team, to the man, has to look within himself and just get the job done."

As the chart shows, the Packers allowed a 300-yard passer in nearly half their games this season. They intercepted the Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton three times to spoil a 432-yard day, for example, and held off the San Diego Chargers mostly because they intercepted Philip Rivers a career-high three times and returned two for touchdowns.

Manning, meanwhile, compiled eight 300-yard games during the regular season; the Giants were 4-4 in those games. He threw the seventh-most interceptions in the NFL, 16, but has thrown only one interception in the Giants' past three games.

Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers has addressed the issue on almost a weekly basis this season. Speaking to Wisconsin reporters last week, Capers admitted that "we don't like" the yardage totals but added: "We've been able to win 15 games, and the reason for that, with our defensive stats the way they are, is the fact that we ended up No. 1 in the league in takeaways and No. 1 in the league in interceptions. That's something we obviously place a high priority on."

What has been the issue? As the second chart shows, the Packers' standard pass rush -- four or less rushers -- hasn't been nearly as effective as it was last season. They have given up an NFL-high 8.5 yards per attempt on those plays and managed only 11 sacks.

As a result, Capers has dramatically increased his blitz totals from last season. He elevated from a blitz on 32.8 percent of opponents' dropbacks in 2010 to 45.7 percent in 2011, the fourth-most in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The only NFL team that effected a bigger blitz uptick this season was the Houston Texans, who changed defensive coordinators in the offseason.

I included the blitz percentages for each of the 300-yard games in the first chart; they blitzed 51.6 percent of the time on Orton's 299-yard day.

The blitz is the ultimate risk-reward proposition, and it brought the Packers 18 of their 29 sacks and limited opponents to eight touchdown passes. (The Packers actually had more interceptions out of their standard rush, possibly a reflection of non-elite quarterbacks forcing the ball into coverage.)

Given his druthers, I doubt Capers wants to blitz as much as he has. In his session with reporters, he pointed to the Packers' Week 12 game against the Detroit Lions as "far more like [the way] we want to play." In that 27-15 victory, the Packers blitzed a season-low 22.4 percent of the time and limited Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford to 276 yards. None of Stafford's 32 completions went for longer than 23 yards.

So is the answer to pull back on the blitz Sunday against the Giants? In that Lions game, I'm guessing Capers considered it a higher priority to cover Detroit's slew of pass-catchers than to pressure Stafford. The Giants have a similar situation, especially now that receiver Mario Manningham is healthy and available to complement Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. Perhaps, perhaps.

To be clear, this is not meant to ring alarm bells. I haven't been impressed with most of the attempts to poke holes in the Packers' success this season. 15-1 is 15-1, and it's clear the Packers know how to win. They are nine-point favorites in this game for good reason. All I want to do is note that a season-long issue was never resolved. The Packers have to hope it won't bite them now.

This was indeed a special season for the San Francisco 49ers and, by extension, the NFC West overall.

The Associated Press All-Pro Team, announced Friday, includes five 49ers, a league high for any team. Arizona's Patrick Peterson made the team as the return specialist, joining the 49ers' David Akers and Andy Lee to give the NFC West all three specialists.

The 49ers' Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman made it as inside linebackers. Teammate Justin Smith made it as a defensive tackle. He also got votes at defensive end. Smith moves around the line, playing end in the base 3-4.

Aaron Rodgers won 47.5 out of 50 votes at quarterback, a strong indication Rodgers will emerge as the leader in MVP balloting. Those results have not yet been revealed, but they draw from the same group of voters.

The chart shows All-Pro counts by division.

Also making the team: fullback Vonta Leach, center Maurkice Pouncey, guard Carl Nicks, guard Jahri Evans, running back Maurice Jones-Drew, running back LeSean McCoy, tackle Joe Thomas, tackle Jason Peters, tight end Rob Gronkowski, receiver Wes Welker, receiver Calvin Johnson, cornerback Darrelle Revis, cornerback Charles Woodson, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, defensive end Jared Allen, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, linebacker Derrick Johnson, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware safety Troy Polamalu and safety Eric Weddle.

Four NFC North players were named Friday to the Associated Press' All-Pro Team, and three were elected by nearly unanimous votes. That's the upshot of an honor that, to me, is far more prestigious than the Pro Bowl rosters that always seem to get more attention.

The All-Pro Team combines players from the NFC and AFC onto one all-star team, requiring more difficult choices from the 50 media members who vote. So it's quite newsworthy to me that Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson and Minnesota Vikings defensive end Jared Allen each received 49 votes at their respective positions. It's the fourth All-Pro Team for Allen and the first for Johnson.

And in what could be a preview of MVP voting to be announced next month, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers easily topped New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees in All-Pro voting. Rodgers received 47 1/2 votes to Brees' 2 1/2 to be named first-team quarterback.

The Packers' Charles Woodson was one of two cornerbacks elected to the team, along with Darrelle Revis of the New York Jets.

Note: Not that this would compare in any way to the All-Pro Team, but for those who are asking: Rest assured that we will compile a 2011 All-NFC North team after the Super Bowl. As always, I'll seek your input on tough choices. Hang tight.

Terrell Suggs added to his growing list of honors by being named AFC Defensive Player of the Month for December and January.


The Ravens outside linebacker recorded five sacks, four forced fumbles and 22 tackles to win the second player-of-the-month award in his nine-year career (November 2010 was the other time). He has been named AFC Defensive Player of the Week three times this season.

Suggs is considered a strong contender for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. His strongest competition will come from Minnesota's Jared Allen, Green Bay's Charles Woodson, New York Giants' Jason Pierre-Paul, Dallas' DeMarcus Ware and Philadelphia's Jason Babin.

A few thoughts on as wild of a "meaningless" Week 17 game as you'll possibly see.

What it means: The Green Bay Packers improved to 15-1, becoming the sixth team in NFL history to win at least 15 regular-season games in one season, despite deactivating three of their most prominent players (quarterback Aaron Rodgers, cornerback Charles Woodson and linebacker Clay Matthews). They also used the game to experiment on offensive line combinations. Amazingly, the Packers were able to protect some key players while still riding momentum into the playoffs. The Lions missed a chance to lock up the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs, leaving their positioning at the mercy of the Atlanta Falcons. The Lions will be the No. 6 seed, and travel to the New Orleans Saints, if the Falcons defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons were leading 35-0 in the second quarter at last check. The Lions have now lost 20 consecutive games in the state of Wisconsin.

Air Supply: On a windy and snowy day at Lambeau Field, both starting quarterbacks set franchise records for passing yards in a game. Backup Matt Flynn made the most of his opportunity to start, throwing for 480 yards and six touchdowns, also a team record. The Lions' Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards, bringing their combined total to an even 1,000 in the game, and tied his team record with five touchdown passes. The Madden-like final statistics also included 244 receiving yards for Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, 116 for tight end Brandon Pettigrew and 162 for Packers receiver Jordy Nelson.

FlynnWatch: I'm not sure what else Flynn could have done to audition for a starting job elsewhere next season. The Packers used two different left tackles, Chad Clifton and Marshall Newhouse, and didn't have receiver Greg Jennings or running back James Starks for this game. But Flynn smartly used the remaining talent the Packers surrounded him with, most notably Nelson (three touchdowns). Perhaps most impressive to teams considering him in free agency this spring, Flynn also led the Packers to 14 points in the final eight minutes, 18 seconds of the game, playing as if he was the quarterback fighting to secure a fifth seed.

Official grumbling: Kudos to Lions center Dominic Raiola, who stepped in and calmed down Lions coach Jim Schwartz (a little bit) in the second quarter after a series of poor calls robbed the Lions of both challenge opportunities before halftime. There is little doubt that the Lions were on the short end of both calls that led to challenges, a fumble that was reversed on tight end Tony Scheffler and a fumble by kick returner Stefan Logan. That left the Lions unable to challenge what should have been a touchdown pass to receiver Titus Young, whom officials ruled didn't get both feet down in the end zone when he in fact did. But in the end, it's fair to say the Lions had plenty of opportunities to win the game. I hope no one leaves the Lions locker room blaming those calls for the loss. The Lions had a 41-38 lead with 2:44 remaining, and their defense couldn't slow down a watered-down Packers offense. That's on them. The Packers' winning drive included two third-down conversions, one of which came after defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh jumped offside.

What's next: We'll await the Lions' playoff seed and opponent for next weekend's wild-card game, to be determined later Sunday. The Packers will have a playoff bye week and host a divisional game the weekend of Jan. 14-15.