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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Rams in 2012:

Dream scenario (8-8): Sam Bradford takes every snap on offense for the second time in three seasons as the Rams protect their franchise quarterback with sensible play calling. It's the sixth time a Jeff Fisher-coached team finishes 8-8, but no one is complaining after the Rams' 15-65 run over the previous five seasons. Trusting offensive line coach Paul Boudreau to salvage right tackle Jason Smith becomes one of the surprise success stories of the 2012 season, and a critical one for the Rams' efforts to re-establish Bradford.

Turns out the Rams were not fibbing when they suggested Brian Quick, the receiver they took in the second round, ranked up there with first-rounder Justin Blackmon on their board. The constant threat of Steven Jackson and Isaiah Pead out of the backfield creates favorable matchups for Quick and the Rams' underrated receivers. Bradford publicly downplays a Week 2 victory over Robert Griffin III and Washington, but it feels good to win at home against the player St. Louis could have selected second overall this year.

Watching Janoris Jenkins score on a fourth-quarter punt return in Patrick Peterson's house improbably stakes the Rams to a 6-5 record, stirring visions of the postseason. It's certainly sweet to finally win within the division again. The Rams lose to San Francisco the following week and ultimately finish the regular season with a respectable defeat at Seattle, but the season is a success by any measure.

Nightmare scenario (3-13): Road games against Detroit and Chicago in the first three weeks expose Bradford to significant punishment as Smith and the line struggle to find their bearings. Bradford doesn't want to talk about the ankle injury he aggravated at some point in the season's first month, but it's clearly a factor. Facing Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ndamukong Suh, Brian Orakpo, Ryan Kerrigan, Julius Peppers, Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, Cameron Wake and Clay Matthews in the first seven games leaves Bradford limping toward the bye week, his confidence shaken.

Steven Jackson continues to plug away, but we've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well for the Rams. The depth at receiver is indeed improved, but Bradford doesn't have any truly dynamic weapons. Quick understandably needs seasoning, but with Blackmon and Arizona's Michael Floyd challenging rookie receiving records, the Rams look bad for trading down. It's tough finding open receivers with Smith struggling at tackle, anyway.

First-round pick Michael Brockers and free-agent addition Kendall Langford upgrade the run defense, but life as an every-down defensive end is tough for Robert Quinn. The veteran outside linebackers signed as stopgaps represent only a minor upgrade from last season. Off-field issues dog Jenkins and the defense fails to meet expectations. Critics conveniently blame Gregg Williams' suspension, but the problems are more complex than that.

The Rams head into the offseason with another high draft choice, one they'll almost certainly have to invest in a playmaker of some sort.

The contract Cameron Wake signed with the Miami Dolphins had to resonate among pass-rushers in the NFC West.

Wake, 30, signed a four-year extension that could help define parameters for St. Louis' Chris Long, Seattle's Chris Clemons and Arizona's Calais Campbell. That extension was reportedly worth $49 million, with $20 million in guaranteed money.

Long, Clemons and Campbell are entering the final year of their contracts, as was Wake.

Scheme differences affect how these players are defined. They are connected by contract status and their ability to rush the passer.

The Cardinals named Campbell their franchise player, setting his value at about $10.6 million for the 2012 season. Long will also earn more than $10 million this season. Clemons' deal pays him $4.6 million in salary for 2012.

Clemons and Wake are similar in that both were undrafted, both are 30 years old and both emerged as prominent players only in the last few seasons.

Seattle values Clemons as a pass-rusher, defensive leader and mentor for new first-round draft choice Bruce Irvin. For those reasons, signing Clemons to an extension could make sense even though Irvin projects as Clemons' eventual successor.

Campbell, 25, plays defensive end in a 3-4 scheme, diminishing his opportunities for sacks (he has 14 over the past two seasons). But as the Cardinals' franchise player, he's in position to command a lucrative extension.

Long, 27, has seen his sack totals grow every season since the Rams made him the second overall choice of the 2008 draft. He had 13 last season.

The chart shows Clemons and Long with about the same sack totals as Wake over the past two seasons. While teams value players for their all-around games, pass-rushing ability carries a premium and sacks are an important measure.

Clemons, Campbell and Long all possess strengths beyond rushing the passer.

Months of mocks and related analysis did not adequately prepare us for a half-dozen selections in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft.

NFC West teams made two of those surprise selections: Bruce Irvin to the Seattle Seahawks and A.J. Jenkins to the San Francisco 49ers. I've listed four others in the chart below after consulting with our other seven divisional bloggers.

While it's possible the teams involved made poor decisions in some cases, accounting for the surprise factor, there's no question the rest of us could have done a better job anticipating. I'll set aside the Dallas Cowboys' selection of cornerback Morris Claiborne. We knew Dallas could take a corner, but there was little way we could know the Cowboys would trade into the sixth overall spot to make it happen.

But in breaking down the other surprise selections, we can hopefully avoid making similar mistakes in the future.

Mistaken identity

Jenkins and New York Giants first-round running back David Wilson fall into this category.

We knew the 49ers could target a receiver early. We figured running back would be a position for the Giants to address. We simply misidentified the players they were most likely to select.

I had projected Kendall Wright to San Francisco in a mock draft several weeks ago, but Tennessee selected him 20th overall, 10 spots before the 49ers selected. Stephen Hill and Rueben Randle, among others, were popular projections.

The knock on Jenkins was that he lacked sufficient physical strength. The 49ers are a very physical team. They have valued physical players. Josh Morgan was a physical wideout the team would have retained if Washington hadn't made an over-the-top contract offer.

In retrospect, however, perhaps we should have more closely considered the receivers San Francisco did sign this offseason. Mario Manningham has never been known as a physical player. Ted Ginn Jr. is not physical at all.

The 49ers now have drafted two wide receivers under coach Jim Harbaugh. Ronald Johnson, a sixth-round pick in 2011, was the one before Jenkins. Lack of physical strength was a knock on Johnson coming out of college.

So far, the 49ers have done a very good job evaluating personnel at just about every position, but receiver has been an exception. Perhaps that changes with Jenkins.

For the Giants, Doug Martin was the running back projected as a first-round candidate somewhat regularly. Tampa Bay drafted Martin at No. 31, one spot ahead of where the Giants were picking. That gave this draft three first-round backs, one more than was typically projected.

Scheme considerations

Irvin and Chicago Bears first-round defensive end Shea McClellin fall into this category.

We could put Irvin in the mistaken identity category as well because the Seahawks' need for a pass-rusher was well-established. But the projections commonly assumed Seattle would be looking for a more traditional defensive end, one big enough to hold up against the run.

In retrospect, we should have at least mentioned Irvin as a possibility.

Seattle gave run-stuffing defensive end Red Bryant a $35 million contract this offseason. Bryant is going to start and play early downs for the next few seasons. That meant the Seahawks were in the market only for a player in the "Leo" role filled by leading sacker Chris Clemons.

Irvin is that type of player. The other defensive ends commonly associated with Seattle before the draft were not "Leo" types. They would have projected as eventual starters on the other side, where Bryant appears entrenched.

What the Seahawks needed, from their perspective, was a pure pass-rusher to play a situational role similar to the one Aldon Smith played with San Francisco last season. That player, Irvin, would project as the eventual replacement for Clemons, most likely.

Syracuse's Chandler Jones, a common projection for Seattle in the days before the draft, could have fit that profile. Concerns over a toe injury probably hurt his stock.

In Chicago, meanwhile, the Bears' need for a defensive end was no secret. However, most projections seemed to suggest McClellin would make more sense as a 3-4 outside linebacker, perhaps in Green Bay. In retrospect, however, Bears assistant Rod Marinelli does tend to like smaller defensive ends. Perhaps McClellin should have been considered more strongly as a candidate for Chicago.

Positional evaluation error

I'd throw Stanford guard David DeCastro into this category.

The assumption heading into the draft was DeCastro would not be available when the Pittsburgh Steelers selected with the 24th overall choice. As a result, DeCastro wasn't commonly linked to Pittsburgh before the draft.

But as we discussed on the blog a while back, teams had taken only five pure guards among the top 17 overall selections since 1995. Only one had gone higher than 17th since 1998.

Guards have made significant gains in financial compensation over the years. However, teams still value other positions at a much higher level. Guard was a common projection for San Francisco at No. 30, but the 49ers did not select one until the fourth round.

Conclusion

There's a tendency to criticize teams for making decisions we did not see coming.

That is self-serving.

I'd rather take a closer look at the surprises and find out where the rest of us went wrong.

RENTON, Wash. -- There were no bold strikes up the draft board for NFC West teams Thursday night.

There was resignation among those hoping the St. Louis Rams would emerge with a No. 1 wide receiver for quarterback Sam Bradford. The Rams traded down instead, taking LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers after wideouts Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd vanished from the talent pool right before St. Louis picked.

There was the expected in Arizona, where the Cardinals went with Floyd over tackle Riley Reiff, no slam dunk but a widely projected scenario in recent weeks.

There was waiting in San Francisco, where the 49ers did not pick until No. 30, where they selected Illinois receiver A.J. Jenkins shortly after two top guards landed elsewhere.

And then there was utter shock in Seattle, where the Seahawks used the 15th overall choice for a player with more time logged in jail than in the mainstream media mock drafts circulating recently.

The Seahawks could have had pass-rushers Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram or Chandler Jones, but instead they went with West Virginia's Bruce Irvin, a former junior-college transfer with a rough past, a sensational first step and a history with Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, who once recruited him to USC.

Irvin is not Charles Haley, Chris Doleman, Derrick Thomas or Dwight Freeney. He is not even Von Miller or Jevon Kearse. The Seahawks think he'll become that type of player quickly, however, and they are not shy about leaving that impression. It's an upset if Irvin fails to reach double digits in sacks this season, to hear the Seahawks speak of him.

"This guy comes off the ball like Dwight Freeney and Von Miller and Jevon Kearse," general manager John Schneider said.

Irvin is not for everyone. At 6-foot-3 and 248 pounds, he's a pure pass-rusher, not a player with the strength to anchor against the run on early downs. Irvin represents what Carroll wants for the "Leo" role manned capably by Chris Clemons in recent years. Irvin will play immediately as a situational pass-rusher. The plan will be to groom him as Clemons' successor eventually.

"He is exactly the makeup that you are looking for," Carroll said. "This goes all the way back to Charles Haley and Chris Doleman and Derrick Thomas. That is the kind of effect this guy has a chance to have. He has a lot to learn. He is going to have to grow up with us and learn our system. But the makeup of this player is so rare. He looks like a carbon copy of Von Miller rushing the passer."

Seattle spent big to retain run-stuffing defensive end Red Bryant in free agency. The money Bryant commanded means he'll be on the field for early downs. And with Clemons coming off an 11-sack season, that meant the Seahawks weren't looking for an every-down defensive end. They were looking for a player with a unique set of skills, and Irvin fits on that front. His 6.7-second time in the three-cone drill was the fastest for any player at the scouting combine.

"This position is so rare to find a guy that runs this fast," Carroll said.

Irvin follows a pattern in Seattle. Bryant is much bigger than the typical defensive end. Brandon Browner (6-4) and Richard Sherman (6-3) are taller than the typical cornerback. Kam Chancellor is the biggest strong safety in the league. Earl Thomas might be the NFL's fastest free safety. Linebacker K.J. Wright stands 6-4 and is rangier than most.

Now comes Irvin, who played wide receiver in high school before flunking out as a junior. Irvin was living on the streets for two years, at one point keeping his possessions in a bag. He spent a couple weeks in jail after allegedly robbing a drug dealer. Irvin pulled himself together, earned his GED and landed, eventually, on the football team at Mount San Antonio College.

"I went through a lot of stuff in my life," Irvin said. "I've seen a lot. The average person would not be on this call."

Nothing came of a more recent arrest for destruction of property.

"The Lord knew it was B.S.," Irvin said, drawing laughter from reporters huddled around a conference-call speaker at Seahawks headquarters.

A year ago, the Seahawks shocked draft analysts by selecting tackle James Carpenter with the 25th overall choice. Carpenter hadn't appeared in many first-round mock drafts, but the Seahawks weren't the only team with a first-round grade on him. Pittsburgh and Green Bay also liked him. An injury derailed Carpenter last season, making it tough to evaluate that choice. The Irvin selection was similar in that virtually no one projected the move.

So far, though, Carroll has usually been right when targeting specific defensive players for specific roles. And there is precedent within the division for surprise first-round selections making an immediate impact.

The 49ers selected Aldon Smith seventh overall last year when few projected the Missouri pass-rusher to San Francisco. Smith, unlike Irvin, was widely considered a top-15 prospect by analysts. Smith finished his rookie season with 14 sacks, finishing behind only Miller in defensive-rookie-of-the-year balloting, even though conventional wisdom suggested Smith would need time to develop.

Smith succeeded right away largely because the 49ers used him properly, asking him to do the one thing he could do best: rush the passer.

The bar has been set high for Irvin.

"I'm just a great athlete," Irvin said. "I'm going to do great things for this organization. The sky is the limit for me."

RENTON, Wash. -- The 15th overall choice marked that point in the 2012 NFL draft when a team's selection sent me diving into a draft guide to find out more about the latest selection.

Bruce Irvin? Yes, Bruce Irvin.

Never mind that my preferred draft guide, the one Pro Football Weekly publishes each season, listed Irvin as a likely third- or fourth-round selection. The Seahawks made him the 15th overall choice with an eye toward developing him into the "Leo" role currently inhabited by Chris Clemons.

Irvin, 6-foot-3 and 248 pounds, played at West Virginia. He was a junior-college transfer with off-field troubles deep in his past.

The PFW guide called him "the most explosive pass-rusher of any in the draft" while noting that a thin build could make it tough for Irvin to add weight.

One thing to know about the Seahawks: They draft players with specific roles in mind. The coaching staff has done a good job turning Red Bryant into a valued starter by converting him to a role Bryant had never played previously.

For the Irvin pick to make sense, Seattle presumably sees him as a situational pass-rusher for now, and possibly Clemons' long-term replacement. He'll have an opportunity to rush the passer in favorable situations.

Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones was my choice for the Seattle Seahawks after trading down in the ESPN Blogger Mock Draft.

The long-armed pass-rusher seemed to represent good value with the 27th overall choice, acquired from New England in our mock.

The reality, of course, is that Seattle enters the NFL draft Thursday with the 12th overall choice, not the 27th pick. But in speaking with Steve Muench of Scouts Inc., Jones could be a logical consideration in that spot as well.

Sando: OK, Steve, you liked where San Francisco and Arizona stood in this draft. I'm sensing a trend here.

Muench: The Seahawks are in good shape, yes. The interesting thing about this draft is that Quinton Coples is going to drop. I think Coples or Chandler Jones would make sense for Seattle. The Seahawks are going to get an edge rusher and those guys are two of the bigger defensive ends/edge rushers in this class.

Sando: Right, but every time I speak with an NFL scout about Coples, the response is less than enthusiastic.

Muench: Some are concerned with his work ethic. From what I've seen on film, he's a hard worker. With everything that went on at North Carolina, if the kid had any inclination of being a troublemaker, it would have happened there. He was dominant at the Senior Bowl, by far the best defensive lineman there. I understand why people say, 'No, is he going to work.' They say where there is smoke, there is fire. I haven’t been able to find it.

Sando: It's interesting to me that you brought up Jones unsolicited. I had read a scouting report comparing him to Calais Campbell and pointing out Jones' extremely long arms. Right away, I thought Jones would appeal to Pete Carroll, who values players with what he describes as unique or unusual traits.

Muench: Jones is skyrocketing up boards. He didn't have a monster workout at the combine. I watched his 2010 and 2011 film, and you can clearly see him improving in terms of technique and off-the-field work ethic. He put on a lot of weight at Syracuse and it's good weight. Even though he is not as explosive as an Melvin Ingram or Fletcher Cox, he bends the edge, he’s flexible. Put him opposite Chris Clemons in pass-rushing situations and that would work for them.

Sando: The chart shows Seattle's sack leaders from last season. Clemons was the only one with more than four. The team signed Jason Jones to replace Anthony Hargrove. Raheem Brock is a free agent and not expected back. There's no question the team could use another defensive end with pass-rush ability.

Torry Holt got the timing right for his retirement news conference Wednesday at St. Louis Rams headquarters.

The Rams' seven-time Pro Bowler offered a formal goodbye while NFC West teams searched for receivers with comparable skill.

The latest 2012 NFL mock draft from Mel Kiper Jr., a two-rounder with explanations for every selection, sends three receivers to NFC West teams in the first round alone.

We get the hint even though this division features a couple all-time greats in Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald. The Rams in particular need upgraded weapons, but the other teams in the division could use help as well.

And while Kiper did not send a receiver to Seattle in the first round, knowledgeable Seahawks fans know their team hasn't had a Pro Bowl player at the position since Brian Blades in 1989 (another receiver, Alex Bannister, made it as a special-teamer in 2003).

The symmetry with Holt and the Rams is striking. The team drafted Holt sixth overall in 1999, and a trade-down with Washington this offseason has given them the sixth pick again this year. That is where we pick up the conversation, using Kiper's mock as a starting point.

6. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St.

Kiper's give: The possibility remains that St. Louis could move off this spot, but if they stay here and get Blackmon, they'll immediately upgrade a huge weakness, which is the lack of talented options for Sam Bradford in the passing game. Blackmon's speed is adequate, but his smarts, ball skills, route-running and work habits translate to a guy that can contribute immediately, which is what this offense desperately needs.

Sando's take: Kiper had cornerback Morris Claiborne heading to the Rams in his previous mock. Blackmon went to Cleveland at No. 4 in that scenario, but with running back Trent Richardson working out impressively following knee surgery, Kiper has the Browns taking Richardson instead of Blackmon. That left Blackmon for the Rams. We've debated on the blog whether Blackmon would be a reach with the sixth pick. We do know Blackmon would address a primary need, and that most analysts consider him a legitimate choice among the top 10 selections. The Rams are trying to bolster the position in free agency to diminish the need heading into the draft, but they aren't going to find a young talent such as Blackmon on the market at this time. The Rams own the 33rd and 39th picks as well, giving them an opportunity to find playmakers beyond the sixth choice, should they prefer to do so. Kiper had the Rams taking Michigan State defensive tackle Jerel Worthy and Ohio State tackle Mike Adams in the second round.

12. Seattle Seahawks: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

Kiper's give: Even if [Boston College linebacker Luke] Kuechly is still on the board, it would be tough for Seattle to pass on perhaps the safest 4-3 DE option available. Coples has prototypical size, can play every down as a pass-rusher and has a solid arsenal of moves to get to opposing quarterbacks, but with the size and discipline to be a force against the run. Seattle can't go wrong here with either the top LB or DE available. This defense is close to being considered among the NFL's finest.

Sando's take: The word "safest" isn't particularly comforting for Seahawks fans. Aaron Curry was considered the safest pick in the 2009 draft. Coples was my choice for Seattle in the recent NFL Blog Network mock. Then, Kuechly was not available. Kiper previously had Seattle taking Ryan Tannehill in this spot, but Tannehill was off the board this time and the Seahawks weren't in the QB market, anyway, after signing Matt Flynn. Some have criticized Coples for inconsistent effort. Pete Carroll constantly emphasizes competition, but the Seahawks have shown they can get good results from defensive players with varied résumés and reputations. Red Bryant, Chris Clemons and Alan Branch come to mind. The draft plot thickens considerably for Seattle if Kuechly does slip past the top 11 choices. The word "safe" has applied to Kuechly as well. The Seahawks have obvious needs for a pass-rusher and a linebacker, so Coples and Kuechly make sense as projected picks. Kiper had the Seahawks taking Oklahoma linebacker Ronnell Lewis in the second round.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Kiper's give: Another pick I'll stick with, Floyd is a great complement to Larry Fitzgerald and will help Arizona maximize the options for Kevin Kolb. The offensive line could use help, but Floyd has proven that he'd be a good value here. Think of Atlanta getting Julio Jones to take some pressure off Roddy White last year. Floyd could fill a similar role.

Sando's take: Some might recall Kiper sending Stanford tackle Jonathan Martin to the Cardinals a couple mocks ago. Martin fell from the first round entirely in Kiper's next version before resurfacing in the 20s of this one. The Cardinals need help at tackle after failing to address the position in free agency. (Demetress Bell's agreement with Philadelphia takes away one option under consideration for Arizona.) I get Kiper's thinking on Floyd. Arming Kolb with sufficient options is important. I've offered a counterpoint in the video posted atop this entry. In short, the Cardinals have already armed Kolb with highly drafted weapons at running back, receiver and tight end. The case can be made that Kolb needs to make better use of the existing weapons. To do that, he'll have to gain a stronger grasp of the playbook this offseason. He'll also need to stay on the field, something he hasn't been able to do. Improved pocket awareness would help. Landing a tackle seems like a necessity, but how? I sent Courtney Upshaw to the Cardinals in our Blog Network mock, figuring pass-rushers are more valuable than receivers or offensive linemen. Stanford guard David DeCastro was available to Arizona in Kiper's latest mock. Would the Cardinals draft him to play guard, then move Adam Snyder to right tackle? Kent Somers raised that possibility and it's an interesting one. I'm not sure Snyder projects as the long-term solution at guard, let alone tackle.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

Kiper's give: Hill is the biggest home-run threat in the draft when you combine his speed and size, and it's no secret the 49ers need some help at wide receiver, even with the additions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. He'll need an adjustment period as he gets used to doing more in terms of scheme than he was asked at Georgia Tech, but he's the kind of weapon this offense needs to expand.

Sando's take: The thinking makes sense, but the 49ers have options in this spot. Players drafted this late in the first round will likely need time before developing into starters. There's no pressure to target the most immediate need on the roster. Landing a receiver does have appeal. Moss is 35 years old and might not offer much at this stage. But the 49ers can count tight end Vernon Davis as one of their receiving options. They use two tight ends frequently. This team does not run a spread offense requiring three top-flight wideouts, in other words. And there's still a chance Michael Crabtree will take another step forward after finally getting a full offseason in the 49ers' offensive system. The team has flexibility heading into the draft, in other words. San Francisco could target just about any position with the 30th choice (quarterback would be a surprise). The 49ers can sit back and wait to see which talented players with question marks fall to them. Kiper had the 49ers taking Brandon Brooks, a guard from Miami of Ohio, in the second round. The need for guard help could subside if the 49ers sign a veteran in free agency, however. They've visited with a few.

Brock Huard, Mike Salk and I spent 13-14 minutes Thursday discussing where the Seattle Seahawks stand heading toward the 2012 NFL draft.

One question: Should the team focus on adding a front-line receiver to help new quarterback Matt Flynn, or should finding pass-rush help (and possibly linebacker help) stand as top priority?

I lean toward making pass-rush help a higher priority while the team finds out whether Flynn has the ability to maximize the existing weapons and make full use of additional ones.

The chart shows which players accounted for the Seahawks' 33 sacks last season.

Five of the players with at least 3.0 sacks are unsigned and/or will not return.

Anthony Hargrove has agreed to terms with Green Bay, Leroy Hill is unsigned and Raheem Brock is not expected back. Jason Jones, signed from Tennessee, should help pump up the numbers to a degree. But there's definitely room for another contributor.

Audio here.

» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Arizona Cardinals

Key free agents: DE Calais Campbell (franchise tag), CB Richard Marshall, OLB Clark Haggans, WR Early Doucet, T Brandon Keith, G Deuce Lutui, K Jay Feely.

Where they stand: A strong finish to the 2011 season on defense gives the Cardinals a glass-half-full feel heading into free agency. Going from 1-6 to 8-8 was an impressive achievement. Arizona does have serious concerns on its offensive line. The situation at tackle is particularly questionable even if Levi Brown returns (and maybe especially if he returns, depending on your view). The line concerns might actually dissipate some if the team lands Peyton Manning, a quarterback with the ability to beat pressure with quick throws. But tackle is still an area that needs addressing for the long term. Injuries throughout the offensive backfield raise questions about that area as well. Kevin Kolb (concussion), Beanie Wells (knee), Ryan Williams (knee) and Anthony Sherman (ankle) missed extensive time or played at a diminished level for stretches.

What to expect: The Cardinals are one of the teams chasing Manning. That pursuit could consume them for the short term. Landing Manning would signal the end for Kolb in Arizona. The Cardinals have until March 17 to exercise a $7 million option on Kolb, the quarterback they acquired from Philadelphia for cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a fat contract. I'm expecting a resolution to Manning's situation before the Kolb bonus comes due simply because interest in Manning should be high enough to accelerate the process. The Cardinals had about $3 million in salary-cap space entering the week, according to ESPN's John Clayton. That figure could increase substantially once the team releases Brown or reworks his contract. Arizona still has strong coaching ties to Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball, but it's an upset if the Cardinals seriously pursue any of the aging veterans recently released by the Steelers. Developing young talent is the priority now. Re-signing Marshall, who fared well at corner, should be a priority. Does free-agent linebacker Stewart Bradley still factor prominently into the team's plans, particularly at such a high price?

St. Louis Rams

Key free agents: WR Brandon Lloyd, G Jacob Bell, CB Justin King, OL Adam Goldberg, LB Chris Chamberlain, G Tony Wragge, TE Billy Bajema, WR Mark Clayton, DT Gary Gibson, P Donnie Jones.

Where they stand: The Rams have no interest in staying the course from a personnel standpoint after going 15-65 over the past five seasons. They will seek fresh talent almost across the board as Jeff Fisher's new coaching staff seeks players for its schemes. The Rams are seeking playmakers in particular, starting at wide receiver. The offensive line needs addressing, although the Rams might try to minimize the turnover at offensive tackle for the short term, figuring they cannot afford to create new needs. But former starting center Jason Brown, benched last season, appears unlikely to return. The team also needs two starting outside linebackers, starting defensive tackles and perhaps two starting cornerbacks on defense.

What to expect: Mass roster turnover. I could see the team retaining as few as one or two players from its list of 21 projected unrestricted free agents. The Rams have a disproportionate amount of their salary cap tied up in recent high draft choices Sam Bradford, Chris Long and Jason Smith. The rookie wage scale will provide them cap relief even if the team remains among the teams picking very high in the 2012 draft. Bradford and Long are cornerstones. Smith could stick around at a reduced rate. The team still has hope for him under new offensive line coach Paul Boudreau. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan and defensive lineman Jason Jones, both free agents from Tennessee, have ties to Fisher and could make sense for the Rams. Despite the need for playmakers on offense, the Rams did not use the franchise tag on Lloyd, their most talented receiver. Questions persist about how effective Lloyd might be outside Josh McDaniels' offense.

San Francisco 49ers

Key free agents: QB Alex Smith, CB Carlos Rogers, FS Dashon Goldson (franchise tag), G Adam Snyder, WR Ted Ginn Jr., WR Josh Morgan, G Chilo Rachal, FB Moran Norris, LB Blake Costanzo.

Where they stand: Coach Jim Harbaugh has said it's a bit unsettling heading through the offseason with his starting quarterback unsigned. Smith and the 49ers are expected to reach agreement eventually. This relationship will almost certainly continue even if Smith does reach free agency without a deal in place. Smith would not fit nearly as well anywhere else. Harbaugh likes to use the word "equity" when describing players he wants to keep. The 49ers would rather bring back Smith than invite the disruption that Manning would bring, were they able to land him. The team needs help at wide receiver and possibly cornerback, depending upon what happens with Rogers. Getting Goldson at the relatively reasonable franchise rate ($6.2 million) was a plus for the 49ers' continuity in the secondary.

What to expect: Not a whole lot, most likely. The 49ers were a good team last season after taking a low-keyed approach to the free-agent market. They will presumably show interest in Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace and any high-profile, productive receiver with the talent to upgrade their offense. It's a small upset if the 49ers land one of them, however, because their philosophy is built on a measured approach resistant to overpaying. They will have to address the receiver position in free agency one way or another, however. Re-signing Morgan would help. Pierre Garcon, Marques Colston, Mario Manningham, Plaxico Burress and Robert Meachem are among the other options in free agency. An upgrade at right guard would help the line, but the 49ers might be apt to develop 2011 draft choice Daniel Kilgore after investing first-round choices in their left tackle (Joe Staley), left guard (Mike Iupati) and right tackle (Anthony Davis).

Seattle Seahawks

Key free agents: DE Red Bryant, LB David Hawthorne, LB Leroy Hill, OL Paul McQuistan, DE Raheem Brock, DL Tony Hargrove, FB Michael Robinson, RB Justin Forsett, QB Charlie Whitehurst, LB Matt McCoy, TE John Carlson, LB Heath Farwell.

Where they stand: The Seahawks' long-term quarterback situation hangs over them as they head toward the 2012 draft with only the 12th overall choice. The team has built up the rest of its roster to a point where sticking with Tarvaris Jackson as the primary starter could hold back the team to a degree it did not through much of last season. Upgrading the pass rush is another priority for the Seahawks. With defensive end Raheem Brock publicly stumping for Seattle to land Manning, his former teammate, I couldn't help but wonder which one of them had a better shot at earning a roster spot with the team in 2012. It might be Manning, even if the Seahawks are relative long shots for his services. Brock failed to provide the pass-rush push Seattle needed opposite Chris Clemons. Linebacker is another position the Seahawks need to address, whether or not Hawthorne and Hill return.

What to expect: The Seahawks have roughly $30 million in cap space, according to Clayton, and will make every effort to land Manning. They feel they've got a shot as long as they can persuade him to get on a plane and check out what they have to offer in terms of the roster, coaching, facilities, ownership and more. If Manning goes elsewhere, I would expect the Seahawks to consider Green Bay quarterback Matt Flynn. Securing him at a price lower than what Arizona paid for Kolb would be the goal. As badly as the Seahawks want to upgrade the position, they have said they will not panic. Overpaying for Flynn could represent panic in their eyes. On the pass-rush front, I'm increasingly skeptical the team will shell out for Mario Williams. The price could be too high for a player Houston has decided to let hit the market. Re-signing Bryant is a priority, but using the franchise tag for him was never an option given the $10.6 million price. A deal slightly north of the one teammate Brandon Mebane signed seems likelier if Bryant returns.

The St. Louis Rams thought they could upgrade from veteran linebacker Paris Lenon following the 2009 season.

Three years later, they still have not adequately replaced him.

The Arizona Cardinals sought to upgrade from Lenon last offseason when they invested $6 million a year in free-agent linebacker Stewart Bradley.

Lenon wound up playing more than 95 percent of the defensive snaps in 2011. He was a team captain, played through multiple injuries (including a cracked tailbone) and triggered a $500,000 salary increase for the 2012 season. His name jumped off the chart below showing NFC West players who have earned 2012 pay raises by meeting incentives.

Lenon, 34, will not go away. He has done what solid, unspectacular veterans must do to remain viable: stay on the field at all costs.

"His story is amazing," Lenon's agent, Jonathan Persch, said Friday. "He is the only XFL player still even remotely around. What makes him amazing is not just his resiliency on the field, but he is a normal soccer dad when he goes home to his wife and kids."

Undrafted from Richmond in 2000, Lenon went to camp with Carolina as a rookie, then caught on with the XFL's Memphis Maniax. He was briefly with Seattle and Green Bay before joining the Packers' practice squad in 2001.

Lenon played for the Amsterdam Adrmirals in NFL Europe and has subsequently played in 159 of 160 regular-season NFL games for the Packers, Detroit Lions, Rams and Cardinals. He has never missed a game to injury. Lenon did not play the 2009 opener only because the Rams had not yet signed him.

"He doesn't verbalize this," Persch said, "but dear God, don't tell him what he cannot do."

The Cardinals credited Lenon with 127 tackles in 2010 and 103 last season. Those totals, combined with playing time, helped Lenon achieve the $500,000 raise. Lenon also set a career high with three sacks. He has five sacks, two interceptions and a forced fumble in two seasons with Arizona.

Will Lenon start again in 2012? There are never guarantees, but it's tough betting against him. Coach Ken Whisenhunt has emphasized playing the best players at every position, even when it wasn't convenient to him. That explained why Lenon stayed on the field last season even though the team had more invested in Bradley.

Note: Thanks to Brian McIntyre for putting together the information in the chart below. He has posted a broader NFL list of salary increases here.

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Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Steven Jackson, Adrian Wilson and Larry Fitzgerald were among the current NFC West players I considered best qualified the ESPN.com/ESPN The Magazine's NFL Any Era team.

There were other less-accomplished players I felt fit the mold, including Chris Clemons, Chris Long, James Laurinaitis, etc.

But when ESPN shared with me an advance copy of the list, Smith's exclusion bothered me the most. Willis made it at No. 7, and rightly so. The top four positions have not yet been revealed, but No. 94 for the 49ers is not among them.

"If I could exchange myself today and give it to somebody else, I would give it to Justin and I would be off of it," Willis said of his Any Era selection. "Because honestly, he is who makes me who I am. This guy, he really makes my world a lot easier."

Anyone watching the 49ers closely during their recent postseason run got to see how Smith plays every week. Smith had 10 tackles, two sacks and nine quarterback hits in those games. He drove both opponents' left tackles straight backward into their quarterbacks, dragging down Drew Brees and mauling Eli Manning.

"He is no prima donna d-tackle," Willis said. "This guy is the real deal. He is not 400-and-some pounds and just sitting there like a big glob. He is not 270 pounds where he is just trying to swim a gap. This man is 300 pounds on the money and he is going to go right through you."

Smith has started 171 consecutive regular-season games. The way Smith's neck and head fill his helmet creates an old-school look.

"Those are the types of guys I want to play with," Willis said. "Hard-nosed guys. You get guys that just want to be pass rushers or you get guys who don't want to move. I don’t think you are a complete guy. Justin is a very complete d-tackle to me. Man, I’ll tell you what, he has been the heart and soul of this defense."

A look at my all-NFC West picks for the 2011 season, continuing with the defense:

• San Francisco 49ers rookie Aldon Smith defied categorization. I wasn't going to list him at the expense of every-down players at defensive end or linebacker. Neither was I going to leave him off the team after Smith collected 14 sacks. Smith commanded his own category as a situational pass-rusher. Consider that a compliment.
• Some St. Louis Rams fans I know will insist James Laurinaitis should show up among the linebackers. I wasn't going to list him above Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman or Daryl Washington. The Cardinals blocked Laurinaitis well while Beanie Wells set a franchise rushing record with 228 yards. The Rams ranked 32nd against the run most of the season, settling in at No. 31. Dallas' DeMarco Murray also set a franchise single-game rushing record against the Rams. Laurinaitis was not primarily to blame, obviously, but neither was he able to stem the bleeding. He remains a good player with a bright future, but this was not his year.
• The choices along the defensive line forced leaving off very good players such as Darnell Dockett, Ray McDonald and Red Bryant. Alan Branch also played well after leaving Arizona for Seattle. Chris Clemons' obvious strength as a pass-rusher and strong play against the run made him stand out. Insider subscribers might have noticed Clemons showing up third behind Jared Allen and Jason Babin on a list of most valuable sack artists. The piece ranked pass-rushers by the importance of their sacks relative to game situations.
• Seattle's Kam Chancellor was a narrow choice over Arizona's Adrian Wilson at strong safety. I had no problem with Wilson beating out Chancellor in Pro Bowl balloting. Wilson earned that recognition. He was a worthy choice. I do think Chancellor made a bigger impact from start to finish this season, and he did it for a defense that was far more consistent. Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. agreed with me on that choice. An NFL scout I called for another opinion also gave Chancellor a slight edge. Both players were legitimate choices.
• The division has good, young prospects at cornerback. Arizona's Patrick Peterson will probably show up on this team next season. He was trending that way. The 49ers' Carlos Rogers was an easy choice. Seattle's Richard Sherman enjoyed a breakout rookie season and was even better, I thought, than teammate Brandon Browner, a first-alternate to the Pro Bowl.

The chart breaks down all-division choices from 2008-10, plus this season. Still to come: special teams. Let the discussions begin.

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Five things I'll be watching for when the Seattle Seahawks face the Philadelphia Eagles at CenturyLink Field on Thursday night:

Marshawn Lynch's ongoing revival. Lynch has 443 yards rushing since Week 9, most in the league. He has topped 100 yards in three of the Seahawks' past four games. Lynch appears to be running with more confidence now that his offensive line is opening holes more consistently. The Eagles' past five opponents have averaged only 85.3 yards per game, down from 140.2 previously this season. Seattle needs a running threat to minimize the Eagles' pass rush. The hard-running Lynch showcased nationally against New Orleans in the playoffs has marked his game recently as well. Lynch has 212 yards rushing after contact since Week 9, most in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That's up from 127 yards after contact through Week 8.

Clemons against his former team. The Eagles generally haven't regretted the higher-profile trades they've made in recent years. Sending quarterback Donovan McNabb to a division rival comes to mind. Seattle came out ahead when acquiring Chris Clemons from Philadelphia for Darryl Tapp and a fourth-round draft choice. This will be Clemons' first game against the Eagles since the trade. He leads the Seahawks in sacks with eight, but Philadelphia has allowed only three in its last four road games. Clemons faces a tough matchup against Eagles left tackle Jason Peters.

Size against speed on the outside. The Seahawks' big cornerbacks, Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman, each picked off a pass last week. They have the size to throw off bigger receivers. Raw speed can be tougher to handle, as Browner found out against the Pittsburgh Steelers' Mike Wallace. The Eagles are without starting wideout Jeremy Maclin, but they still have DeSean Jackson. Jackson hasn't topped 100 yards receiving since an Oct. 2 game against San Francisco. He's averaging 17.0 yards per catch, though. Browner leads the NFL in penalties with 16, including 10 for defensive holding, defensive pass interference or illegal contact. A calf injury limited Sherman in practice this week. The Seahawks listed him as questionable. Eagles quarterback Vince Young has three touchdowns with no interceptions on his 40 shorter passes (those traveling 10 or fewer yards past the line of scrimmage). He has no TDs and five picks on his 45 longer throws, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Breno Giacomini at right tackle. He faces a difficult matchup against Jason Babin, who leads the Eagles in sacks with 10. Giacomini seemed to fare well against Ryan Kerrigan and the Washington Redskins last week. He's fiery, competitive and likes to hit people. The Seahawks can help him by running the ball at Babin. They might need to help Giacomini in obvious pass-rushing situations, however. Babin spent part of the 2008 season with Seattle. He has 22.5 sacks in his past 27 games after collecting 4.5 over the previous three.

Concerns at linebacker. Knee problems are again bothering Seahawks middle linebacker David Hawthorne. His movement appeared restricted against the Redskins. Hawthorne was limited in practice this week. Seattle's run defense should improve with Alan Branch returning from an ankle injury, but Hawthorne's status will be important if the Eagles lean on LeSean McCoy. Philadelphia had only 17 rushing plays against New England last week, its lowest total in a game since Week 17 of the 2009 season.

SAN FRANCISCO -- The frustration Alex Smith expressed for the San Francisco 49ers' offensive skill players was genuine and appropriate Sunday.

Most of them were just OK. Some, including Smith, struggled through one of their least satisfying performances of the season.

They will have to settle for a 9-1 record and the organization's first winning season since the 2002 team went 10-6 with Jeff Garcia, Garrison Hearst and Terrell Owens. Their 23-7 victory over the Arizona Cardinals at Candlestick Park felt as inevitable as any since ... when? This was certainly the least satisfying 49ers victory in a while.

Smith summed up the mindset thusly: "Yeah, we got the win, but definitely frustrated. You don't expect to hit everything [on offense], but we missed too many today."

This game was high in fat, low in fiber, overly spiced (thanks to Dashon Goldson's ejection after one of several skirmishes) and lacking in nutritional value. It will have to tide over the 49ers until their Thursday night game at Baltimore, but they already were getting hungry Sunday night. They acknowledged the significance of 9-1 without reveling in it.

"We don't talk about the simple fact that we're a winning team now," tight end Vernon Davis said. "We kind of just go with the flow now. We expect to win now. It's a blessing. It feels great to be in this situation."

A look at what else we learned and confirmed around the division after the 49ers and Seattle Seahawks coasted to victories over NFC West rivals:

1. The NFC West carrot could dangle a little longer.

San Francisco must step outside the division to measure itself. The 49ers lead second-place Seattle (4-6) by five games with six to play. But with the Seahawks playing their next three games at home against losing teams, the 49ers might have to wait a couple weeks before clinching. Their magic number is down to two.

A San Francisco loss at Baltimore, coupled with a Seattle victory over Washington, would further prolong the inevitable. But a reverse of those results would make the 49ers division champs in Week 12.

2. No quarterback controversy in Arizona

John Skelton or Kevin Kolb? There's no question after Skelton completed 31.6 percent of his passes with three picks before coach Ken Whisenhunt replaced him with Rich Bartel to start the fourth quarter.

Kolb will start against St. Louis in Week 12 if he's healthy enough to do so. The Cardinals can say that was going to be the case anyway, but the game Sunday provided Skelton an opportunity to stay in the lineup a little longer. But the second-year pro failed so miserably that Whisenhunt finished his postgame news conference with a career high for quarterback hits.

"They played well," Whisenhunt said of the 49ers, "but we had wrong reads, bad throws, bad decisions. John played like a rookie today and that was tough."

Whisenhunt said the offense played too poorly "especially at the quarterback position to give us a chance against a good football team." He noted that Skelton "hasn't been the fastest starter" and that the defeat felt worse than the final score suggested.

"The very first pass of the game, he takes an incorrect drop and that throws the timing off and it sails it over the receiver's head," Whisenhunt said. "Those are things you can't do. ... Listen, I'm not trying to blame John, I'm not trying to put it all on John. It was a tough day for a lot of us out there."

The only positive for Skelton: His fourth-quarter passer rating for the season remained unchanged at 101.8.

3. Seahawks showing Rams how to rebuild.

The Rams hired Steve Spagnuolo as coach and promoted Billy Devaney to general manager for the 2009 season. No team in the league has used more top-five draft choices than the Rams since then. The Rams landed their franchise quarterback, invested heavily in their offensive line and should be a least a year ahead of Seattle in the rebuilding process.

That they lost at home to Seattle by a 24-7 score confirmed that the opposite is true.

The Seahawks, now in their second season with coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider, have done a better job building up their roster. They've gotten better at every position but quarterback. They've been better prepared than the Rams for injuries.

In some cases, injuries to established players (think Marcus Trufant) have allowed young talent (think rookie Richard Sherman) to shine, brightening the long-term outlook. Even when Seattle missed on players in the draft (think Golden Tate), others have picked up the slack, and then some (think Doug Baldwin). Two players the team acquired by trade, Leon Washington and Chris Clemons, were impact players Sunday and have been since their arrival. Free-agent addition Sidney Rice completed a pass for 55 yards.

Much work still lies ahead for Seattle, but the Seahawks appear further along than the Rams, who have yet to exceed 16 points in a game this season with Sam Bradford behind center.

4. The Cardinals' defense keeps making strides.

Arizona appeared lost on defense early in the season, allowing 932 yards over the first two games. Execution is improving. Effort remains strong.

The Cardinals should expect a multi-sack game from defensive end Calais Campbell at St. Louis after the Rams lost another tackle to injury. But with nose tackle Dan Williams suffering a season-ending broken arm, coordinator Ray Horton might need to adjust. It's tough running a Pittsburgh-style 3-4 defense without top talent at nose tackle. Is David Carter ready for more snaps at the position?

Even before losing Williams, the Cardinals lacked ideal personnel to run Horton's scheme.

Of course, scheme won't matter much for Arizona on defense without better play from Skelton or Kolb. The Cardinals controlled the ball for only 15:44 against the 49ers, their lowest possession total in a game since at least 1981.

No wonder Whisenhunt seemed so ticked off after the game.

5. The 49ers earned the Cardinals' respect.

The 49ers-Cardinals rivalry has produced harsh words and hurt feelings in recent seasons. There's also healthy respect between the best players on each team. Arizona, having already faced Pittsburgh and Baltimore this season, gave San Francisco its due.

"They up there, they can play, they play smart," Cardinals defensive end Darnell Dockett said.

Guard Daryn Colledge, who won a championship with Green Bay last season, joined Trent Dilfer and Brian Billick in comparing the 49ers to the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.

"They play great team defense, they run the ball well, they control the clock," Colledge said. "That gives you a chance to win."

6. The 49ers need better quarterback play.

Skelton's performance gave the 49ers a low bar to clear Sunday, but for continued success against playoff-caliber teams, the 49ers will need better play from their quarterback.

Smith has defined "elite" quarterback play as consistent performance at a high level. He missed open receivers for touchdown passes that could have blown open this game against Arizona. He also threw a pick in the end zone after scrambling away from a near sack.

"We all understand what we can be when we're rolling and hitting on all cylinders," Smith said. "Definitely frustrating [today]."

Thoughts on Seattle and St. Louis following the Seahawks' victory at the Edward Jones Dome in Week 11:

What it means: The Seahawks improved to 4-6 heading into a three-game homestand against losing teams. Seattle is now in position to approach its 7-9 record from last season. That would be admirable, but also costly for those hoping the team will draft high enough to select the college quarterback it prefers. For the Rams, this defeat drops their record to 2-8 while again revealing their limitations on offense, with or without Sam Bradford at quarterback. Defeats such as this one -- at home, against a losing team, without being competitive -- raise questions about Steve Spagnuolo's job security beyond this season.

What I liked: The Seahawks won the field-position battle and continued grinding out yards on the ground despite losing right guard John Moffitt and right tackle James Carpenter to season-ending injuries before this game. They exploited matchup advantages against the Rams' injury-depleted secondary, including with receiver pass for a 55-yard gain. They also took advantage of their pass-rush matchups after the Rams, already playing without starting left tackle Rodger Saffold, lost backup Mark LeVoir as well. Chris Clemons dominated and finished with three sacks. Leon Washington enjoyed a strong day on punt returns for Seattle. For the Rams, linebackers Chris Chamberlain and James Laurinaitis were everywhere at times. Chamberlain picked off a pass. Rookie defensive end Robert Quinn got a piece of another punt. He also collected a sack.

What I didn't like: Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor, fined $20,000 for an illegal hit last week, drew a personal-foul penalty with a helmet-to-helmet hit on Rams tight end Lance Kendricks. Chancellor could be subject to bigger fine and/or suspension. Seahawks quarterback Tarvaris Jackson tossed two early touchdown passes. He also took four sacks and eight quarterback hits, raising questions about his ability to last through the season as he plays with an injured pectoral. The Rams' Mark Clayton dropped a pass. Steven Jackson had his three-game streak of 100-yard rushing games end. He has now played 15 career games against Seattle without reaching 100 yards.

What's next: The Seahawks are home against the Washington Redskins in Week 12. The Rams are home against the Arizona Cardinals.