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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Minnesota Vikings in 2012.

Dream scenario (9-7): Quarterback Christian Ponder makes a big leap in his second season, spurred in part by confidence in his new offensive line. Ponder makes good use of his two pass-catching tight ends, Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson, and either Jerome Simpson or Greg Childs provides a legitimate downfield threat. Tailback Adrian Peterson (knee) is back to full strength early in the season, if not in Week 1. The Vikings get a big return on overhauling the middle of their defense and aren't hindered by starting one rookie safety (Harrison Smith) and perhaps two (with Robert Blanton). In a tough division, they're thrilled to finish with a winning record.

Nightmare scenario (3-13): The Vikings show no improvement from 2011, giving them a three-year record of 12-36. Ponder's inconsistency raises questions about his future with the franchise. Peterson returns but isn't a dominant runner any longer. The defense implodes because of its inexperience and lack of playmakers in the back end. It's clear the franchise has another year or more to go before matching the rest of the division.

A committee of ESPN experts -- including Trent Dilfer, Mel Kiper, Gary Horton, Matt Williamson -- assembled this offseason to create a unique version of our traditional Power Rankings.

Naturally, NFC North teams are featured prominently in what amounts to a three-year projection of Power Rankings for the 2015 season . The Green Bay Packers received the top spot as the team best equipped to compete three years from now, while the Detroit Lions were not far behind at No. 6.

The file requires an Insider subscription to read in full, but I can pass along where our four teams ranked and also a glimpse at the methodology used. Here is how the committee evaluated each team and the degree of impact each category had:

• Roster (32.5 percent of total score): Players under 30 emphasized
• Coaching (20 percent): Capability and stability of current staff
• Quarterback (17.5 percent): Where quarterback play would be in three years
• Draft (15 percent): Based on team's 2012 class and how many picks available in next three years.
• Front office (15 percent): Ability to manage roster and market's attraction to free agents.

Now on to the NFC North rankings with comments from me:

1. Green Bay Packers
Seifert comment: The presence of a 28-year-old MVP quarterback and one of the NFL's top general manager-coach combinations puts the Packers on an ideal long-term path.

6. Detroit Lions
Seifert comment: Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a 5,000-yard season before his 24th birthday. That's a nice start. General manager Martin Mayhew has elevated the team's talent level every season of his tenure and most of their key players -- Stafford, receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker Stephen Tulloch -- are under 30.

17. Chicago Bears
Seifert comment: Jay Cutler is a legitimate franchise quarterback, but the best players on the Bears' defense are all over 30. That list includes defensive end Julius Peppers, linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and cornerback Charles Tillman.

31. Minnesota Vikings
Seifert comment: Questions about quarterback Christian Ponder's long-term prospects made it difficult for the committee to project future success. There are also concerns about a lack of young impact players on defense. Defensive end Jared Allen is 30 and linebacker Chad Greenway is 29.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Minnesota Vikings and why.

As the Vikings' interim coach in 2010, Leslie Frazier won three games and lost three games. Promoted to the permanent job shortly thereafter, Frazier was part of a 3-13 disaster in 2011 that prompted an organizational shift in power to general manager Rick Spielman and a significant overhaul of the roster.

So in sum, Frazier has a 6-16 record, is entering the second year of a three-year contract and will be asked to compete with a roster that is at least a year away from legitimate contention. Playing in arguably the NFL's toughest division, he'll have a second-year quarterback in Christian Ponder, three new starters on the offensive line, a rookie place-kicker and first-time starters down the middle of his defense -- at nose tackle, middle linebacker and possibly both safety positions.

Oh, and Frazier's best player -- tailback Adrian Peterson -- is recovering from a serious knee injury suffered last December. Peterson insists he will be ready for the opening of the season, but the Vikings' medical staff has refused to confirm that timetable.

Frazier is a good person and a good coach, but that's a challenging series of obstacles for someone hoping to make it to a third season. At 6-16, the honeymoon period of his tenure is over. If nothing else, he'll be undermanned as he attempts to steer the team toward more victories.

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- I joined a number of reporters Wednesday afternoon at the Minnesota Vikings' practice facility, where tailback Adrian Petersonwas scheduled to discuss the rehabilitation of his surgically-repaired left knee. On cue, Peterson popped his head through the door. With athletic trainer Eric Sugarman at his side, Peterson motioned for us to join him at the far end of the practice field.

For the next 15 minutes, Peterson demonstrated the extent of his progress by running two sets of sideline-to-sideline sprints. He performed a series of box jumps, moved laterally to catch a rolling soccer ball and ran tight circles around a wide hula hoop.

The scene was impressive for a player 19 weeks removed from tearing two ligaments in his knee. As he caught his breath afterwards, Peterson reiterated his intent to be ready for the Vikings' Week 1 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, by far the early side of the typical range for injuries as significant as his.

"People can say what they want to say," he said. "I've got my goals."

I felt conflicted watching Peterson work out and listening to his optimism. Part of me admired his intense desire to return ahead of schedule. The other part kept flashing back to the end of "Fargo."

And for what?

If it wasn't clear before, it should be obvious now. The Vikings have launched a full-scale roster rebuild that should better position them for the long-term but will almost certainly sacrifice the short-term to do it. The latest evidence was this week's decision to jettison still-reliable place-kicker Ryan Longwell for rookie Blair Walsh, perhaps the most extreme example of the team's systematic effort to make its roster younger.

A cynic might say the Vikings know they won't compete for an NFC North title in 2012, making this season as good of a time as any to break in a new place-kicker. Here's what general manager Rick Spielman said Wednesday:

"I think our emphasis has always been trying to get our team better, get it younger, and that's the direction we kind of went. It just fits in with everything else we’re kind of honed in on this offseason."

It's hard to argue with that approach after a 9-23 record over the past two seasons. But as we first discussed last fall, it threatens to nullify the prime of one of the NFL's best players.

Peterson is 27 and has taken the pounding of five professional seasons. By the standards of NFL running backs, at least, the clock on his career is already ticking. It's more than reasonable to wonder what type of performer he will be when the Vikings see the fruit of their rebuilding project.

I asked Peterson what he thought of the Vikings' offseason approach, and he focused mostly on praising Spielman's draft. Peterson also admitted that "the biggest part of my motivation" to return in Week 1 is because "I know how much I mean to this organization." He added: "I want to be out there helping my team and organization accomplish the ultimate goal."

Even with Peterson in the starting lineup, the Vikings figure to have new starters at 11 positions in 2012 in addition to an unproven second-year quarterback in Christian Ponder. In all likelihood, it will be a year measured by progress, not playoff contention.

I'm not going to suggest the Vikings should hold Peterson out of the lineup once he's medically cleared. But in the big picture, there seems to be every reason to take it as slow as possible. If Peterson can avoid some wear and tear during a rebuilding season, wouldn't that help the Vikings in the long-term?

That's a cold and calculated analysis that isn't likely to apply in this case. Neither the Vikings nor Peterson should time his rehabilitation progress based on the projected competitiveness of the team. NFL teams are expected to compete with all available resources at all times. It's not for Peterson to "save" himself for future seasons. The timing is what it is.

The best thing Peterson can do in the short-term is help this team squeeze out a few more victories than it appears capable of while imposing his fanatical work ethic on others. He seems to understand that as well. During rehabilitation a few weeks ago, Peterson noticed some teammates running sprints. Sugarman gave him permission to join them. He wiped out the field.

"Those guys got an understanding of 'Hey, he's really pushing hard to get back out to a level better than he played at before' and it was even more motivation for those guys," Peterson said. "It was like, 'Hey he's out here four months and he's beating us.' Maybe we need to do something different."

Knowing Adrian Peterson, he'll do everything he can to will the Vikings to more success than expected in 2012. It's reasonable to question whether it will be enough, and to wonder how long it will take the rest of this roster to catch up. Will Adrian Peterson be this generation's Barry Sanders? Is he a Hall of Fame player whose career window doesn't match up with his team's window for winning? That's what it feels like at the moment.

Have the Minnesota Vikings put quarterback Christian Ponder in position to succeed in 2012?

Ponder finished his rookie season with a series of injuries and poor decisions, playing behind a patchwork offensive line and with a limited set of weapons in the passing game. The Vikings' short-term future is tied to Ponder's development, so here is what they did for him this offseason:

They drafted Matt Kalil to take over at left tackle, a move that allows Charlie Johnson to move to left guard and accomplishes a significant re-make of the offensive line. They signed pass-catching tight end John Carlson to pair with another smooth pass-catcher, Kyle Rudolph, and signed athletic receiver Jerome Simpson, who will be eligible to play in Week 4. Finally, they drafted a pair of Arkansas receivers in Jarius Wright and Greg Childs.

The idea of having multiple tight end targets makes sense for a young quarterback, and Ponder should have more confidence this season in his backside protection. Percy Harvin and Simpson could pair up as a decent playmaking duo at receiver, but depth remains a question mark. Ponder will be in a better position than he was last season, but the talent around him could still be improved.

I'm not sure what it means, if anything, but the Minnesota Vikings have produced a unique draft quirk as we approach the final few rounds of the NFC North draft.

To this point, they have drafted three sets of college teammates among their first seven picks. Here's the rundown:

• USC: Left tackle Matt Kalil (No. 4 overall) and tight end/fullback Rhett Ellison (No. 128). Ellison told Minnesota reporters that he was stunned to be drafted.
• Notre Dame: Safety Harrison Smith (No. 29 overall) and cornerback Robert Blanton (No. 139).
• Arkansas: Receivers Jarius Wright (No. 118 overall) and Greg Childs (No. 134). Wright, and Childs, in fact, were high school teammates and grew up together in Arkansas.

The Notre Dame connection is especially notable when you consider the Vikings already have three former Irish players on their roster: Tight ends Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson, along with center John Sullivan.

Tweeted quarterback Christian Ponder: "I'm going to have to figure out how to deal with all of these golden domers."

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- The sky is still blue.

Grass is still green.

Water is still two parts hydrogen and one part oxygen.

Up is still up.

Down is still down.

Left tackle is still one of the most important positions in football.

Whew!

Had the Minnesota Vikings passed Thursday night on the opportunity to draft USC left tackle Matt Kalil, I would have been left questioning one of the most basic premises of life. Crazy Rick Spielman, the Vikings' general manager, tried to convince us that he might turn the earth on its axis. In the end, Spielman stopped short of losing his mind.

He took Kalil over LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne because his team was barren at one of the most difficult positions to fill in football.

Spielman drafted Kalil because the immediate future of the franchise depends on creating a more comfortable environment for quarterback Christian Ponder.

And Kalil is a Viking because there are more ways to elevate poor secondary play than there are to fill a hole at left tackle. Spielman demonstrated just that a few hours later by trading back into the first round to select Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith.

"There is never or rarely ever a left tackle that's going to come available in the unrestricted free agent market," Spielman said. "You look at the corners, the top three corners in free agency became available. There are receivers that become available. When you're going back and forth at this position and that position, I know that when you have the opportunity to get a left tackle, especially where we were picking, and as talented as Matt is, I don't know that you'll ever get that opportunity again."

I agree, and frankly I felt like banging my head against a wall this week as so many of you argued for Claiborne. I don't have a single bad thing to say about him or his talent, but the left tackle position is arguably more important than ever given the passing explosion of recent seasons. As long as you're convinced Kalil is a true franchise player, as the Vikings are, you make the move first and then start sorting through your other needs. Left tackle can't be an afterthought. Not on this team, at least.

Even Vikings coach Leslie Frazier, a former NFL cornerback and longtime defensive coach, agreed.

"It's a very important position," Frazier said, "when you're talking about a young quarterback that you want to make sure gets a little bit more comfortable in the pocket, and Matt gives us some confidence in knowing that that position is taken care of.

"We had some needs, but none were more important than addressing the left tackle position."

Drafting Kalil was part of a bravura opening performance for Spielman in his first draft since the Vikings promoted him to general manager, a mixture of sound thinking, stoic poker-playing and aggressive targeting that netted Kalil and Smith -- and still left the Vikings with 10 picks between rounds 3-7.

According to Frazier, the coaching staff has felt comfortable since last month that Kalil should be the pick. Kalil said he got "good vibes" on the possibility during a visit to Minnesota this month, but Spielman managed to turn public perception of what seemed an obvious decision into a legitimate debate.

It doesn't appear that any team bought into the possibility that Claiborne or Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon was his top choice. But Spielman still managed to parlay his professed flexibility -- Kalil, Claiborne or Blackmon -- into an easy pre-draft trade with the Cleveland Browns. If the Browns were convinced he was going to take Kalil at No. 3, they never would have felt compelled to move up and block a team from taking their target, Alabama's Trent Richardson.

Adding three picks from the Browns to move back one spot made it easier to deal a few hours later with the Baltimore Ravens, who accepted second- and fourth-round picks in exchange for the No. 29 pick to select Smith. As much as Spielman had spoken publicly about Kalil, he had never mentioned Smith -- whom the Vikings fell in love with while coaching him at the Senior Bowl. To hide their interest, the Vikings made no contact with him at the scouting combine and didn't invite him to Minnesota for a pre-draft visit.

Even with the trade, the Vikings have enough picks remaining to move back into the second round for a receiver or a cornerback. On the other hand, they might move further back and start piling up picks for in 2013. Or …

"You never know what's going to happen," Spielman said with a laugh.

Not with Crazy Rick Spielman. No sir.

Look, this is the same Spielman who ran the Vikings' past four drafts with mixed results. I don't think it's time to start interviewing artists for his Hall of Fame bust. We had some fun with him this week, but the guy had a good day and the Vikings are better for it. That's all.

I know we've been a little Minnesota Vikings-centric here on Friday, but that's what happens when the commissioner is making emergency trips to the state legislature, and the team is making plans to host one of the more toxic players available on the free agent market.

Receiver Jerome Simpson had 50 receptions last season for the Cincinnati Bengals, and his somersault into the end zone against the Arizona Cardinals was one of the NFL's highlights of the year. But he was sentenced this month to 15 days in jail and three years probation on a felony drug charge, and could be facing an NFL suspension.

That probably means the Vikings could sign him to a minimal-risk contract, or perhaps complete a file on him if they choose to pursue him once he is eligible to play. Simpson is 26 and presumably has a high ceiling for production. The Vikings signed free agent tight end John Carlson last month to give quarterback Christian Ponder another weapon, but it's fair to say that multiple openings remain among their corps of wide receivers.

Simpson pleaded guilty to a prohibited act relating to controlled substances, a felony in Kentucky, after 2 1/2 pounds of marijuana were shipped to his home there. Authorities later found another pound inside his home, but prosecutors determined he was not dealing drugs.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Simpson will visit the Vikings on Saturday. He has already visited the Rams. The Bengals have not ruled out bringing him back.

Never has the NFC North's transition been more visible than on the final day of the 2011 regular season. On a snowy day at Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions combined for 103 passing attempts and 1,000 passing yards.

By the time the Packers secured a 45-41 victory, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford had exceeded 5,000 yards passing for the season and Packers backup Matt Flynn had convinced the league he was a starting-caliber quarterback. Where once we could have expected the teams to grind out a classic Black and Blue game, they instead combined for a total of 37 carries. No running back made it to the modest total of 50 yards.

We've spent some time this offseason noting what we could politely call a tilt toward the passing game in both Detroit and Green Bay. We've discussed the Chicago Bears' seeming ambivalence about signing tailback Matt Forte to a long-term extension, and we've pointed out the Minnesota Vikings' uncertainty as tailback Adrian Peterson rehabilitates his shredded knee.

If you looked at this division through a traditional lens, you could consider running back a significant draft need for at least half of the division, if not all of it. But the NFC North's frenzied quarterback acquisitions over the past few years have brought us to a precipice. Are we ready to jump off, once and for all, into the world of Air and Space? Or will our teams step away from that ledge and rebalance their personnel, if not their scheme, to double back on the running game?

As the NFL continues its push toward passing supremacy, it's hard to imagine any NFC North team making anything other than subtle changes. Why take the ball out of the hands Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler or Stafford? And why not give Christian Ponder every chance to take the next step in his development?

This offseason, we've heard the Vikings speak often about seeking more playmakers for Ponder. We've watched the Bears sign Michael Bush as insurance against Forte's possible absence, but otherwise the Bears have worked to fortify their passing game with the acquisition of receiver Brandon Marshall and private meetings with many of the draft's top receivers, from Michael Floyd to Stephen Hill to Alshon Jeffery.

The Lions are the case study here, followed closely by the Packers. Injuries to Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, Kevin Smith and the brain tumor of Jerome Harrison left them little choice but to rely on Stafford's arm last season. They finished 2011 with the second-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL, managed 71 rushing first downs (No. 29 in the league), according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Stafford told reporters this week that "everybody on our team would like to be a little more balanced than we were last year." It's reasonable to think they will be if Best and/or Leshoure are available full-time. But a serious commitment to improve would almost certainly require a draft investment. Best (concussion) has not been cleared for football work, Leshoure (Achilles) is coming back from a serious injury for a running back, and Smith has had difficulty staying healthy throughout his career.

How much do the Lions value that balance? We should find out over draft weekend. Again, most of us would look at their roster and toss question marks all over their backfield. But in 2012, how important is it to have an established and traditional No. 1 running back?

"We want to score as many points as we can," coach Jim Schwartz said at the NFL scouting combine. "Whether you do it running or passing, it doesn't matter. I think you want to try to get the ball in playmakers' hands."

In the end, the Lions might be best-served by pursuing a more modest goal: Being in position to capitalize against imbalanced defenses. Dictating a game on the ground might well be an NFC North artifact.

"If teams take the approach of playing the pass first," Schwartz said, "we should be in the position of having running backs who can make them pay for that."

Yes, there is a more than reasonable argument to be made that you don't need an elite running back when you have elite quarterbacks and receivers. A competent running back who doesn't miss the obvious yards might well suffice.

I don't know if the Lions, or the Packers for that matter, will invest a high draft pick in a running back. None of us do. But is it necessary? Probably not, at least not in our new Air and Space division. Soon we'll know how far off the cliff we've fallen.

It amounted to fast-break basketball on grass: a summer tournament seven-on-seven football game.

Stratford High School coach Eliot Allen watched it unfold from his usual spot in the back of an end zone, not interacting with the kids representing his school against Dez Bryant and Lufkin High.

Over two 20-minute halves with a running clock, at a furious pace where he had to throw the ball within four seconds of the snap against coverages that had no concern for the run, Andrew Luck didn’t throw an incomplete pass.

“He’s accuracy was unbelievable,” Allen said. “That one game he didn’t have an incomplete pass, I’ve never see it before or since. He throws such a catchable ball.”

When the Indianapolis Colts make Luck the first pick in the draft on April 26, the Stanford quarterback will enter the league rated by many scouts and evaluators as the most pro-ready quarterback since John Elway.

While Luck’s refined his remarkable touch as the leader of the Cardinal, he honed it early on in Texas seven-on-seven summer ball. He participated even as a rising ninth-grader, and Allen says Luck easily played 75 such games before moving onto college, contests that were crucial to the early development of good habits and exquisite ball placement.

As coach of Cypress Falls High, David Raffield regularly saw Luck play during the summer, then coached against Stratford in regular season and playoff football during Luck’s junior and senior years.

“Watching Andrew grow and develop into a quarterback was nothing short of amazing,” said Raffield, who now coaches A&M Consolidated High School in College Station. “The seven-on-seven allowed him to really develop his game. When you are out there as a quarterback running the offense, it’s not plays being called by a coach. You’re the guy doing it. You’re becoming your own offensive coordinator …

“His junior and senior year he had an amazing ability to place the football. The accuracy was phenomenal. He understood pass coverages. It gave him such advantages. I didn’t know he’s wind up being an NFL first-round draft pick, but I knew he was special.”

The summer before Luck’s senior year in 2007, his team finished second in Texas and played in a national tournament in Los Angeles. There, football staffs of high schools from California and Florida coached their players, Allen recalled.

It doesn’t work that way in Texas, where a state organization runs the leagues and tournaments. A high school’s coaches might help arrange leagues, tournaments and officials, but players work under the watch of others. Stratford uses former players from their team as summer ball coaches.

Texans coach Gary Kubiak was a St. Pius X High School (Houston) and Texas A&M quarterback well before seven-on-seven summers started. He joked if he had a chance to play that much, people would have discovered he wasn’t any good.

Klein Kubiak, a Strake Jesuit High School receiver who graduated in 2009 and now plays at Rice, played in the same district and overlapped with Luck. So as Gary Kubiak followed his son, he saw Luck play in tournaments. He’s also seen just how much the competition and setting have done for Texas signal-callers.

“He was very impressive,” Gary Kubiak said. “I think there is a lot of growth going on in those leagues right now. On a Saturday afternoon, those kids might play six of those games.

“I just think you can’t get enough of those repetitions. It’s almost like having two spring balls. It’s almost gotten a little bit year round, kind of like baseball.”

Such summer-league play takes place in a lot of states now. But Texas was a pioneer.

So it’s no coincidence that the three top quarterbacks in this draft -- Luck, Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill -- are all from Texas.

“Think about these names,” said Tennessee Titans quarterback coach Dowell Loggains, who started at quarterback for Cooper High School in Abilene in 1997 and 1998 in both summer seven-on-seven and regular fall football. “Ryan Mallett, Andy Dalton, Colt McCoy, Christian Ponder, Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Kevin Kolb, Robert Griffin, Case Keenum.

“I mean it’s huge. That’s why all these Texas high school quarterbacks are coming out and doing really well. They are so much further along than the rest of the states, plus they get 15 dates for spring practice just like a college. They are getting so many more reps than the rest of the country.”

Other states may be taking note and trying to copy, Loggains said. But it’ll be tough for many to match or top Texas because of the facilities and money high school football has in the Lone Star State.

Added ESPN analyst Jon Gruden when asked about Texas’ production of quarterbacks: “Obviously if you go to Texas, you can probably find passing tournaments going on right now, and if they're not going on right now, they'll be going on later this afternoon and for sure tomorrow and the next day. They throw the ball and have organized passing camps more than any place I've ever been.”

Allen said seven-on-seven forces quarterbacks to figure out ways to beat man-to-man coverage with two-deep safeties and that doing so at an early stage of their football careers is invaluable. Against such a look from the secondary in an actual high school game, a quarterback would hand off most of the time.

“You don’t win those games playing defense,” Allen said. “It reveals a quarterback’s accuracy and I don’t think you can simulate stiff coverage in a better way. Andrew was very good at it. He can throw the deep ball. A lot of people give him a hard time about not being able to throw the deep ball. He was great at it. But his deal is, he just wants to get first downs.”

As a high-schooler, Loggains said he thought the summer opportunity was “awesome.”

And it made it a heck of a lot easier to get time and work with receivers, who might not show up for an informal session on a Tuesday night, but wouldn’t miss a chance to play in a game with a score and a title on the line.

The proliferation of seven-on-seven play actually influenced the game at all levels.

Coaches found they had quarterbacks equipped to run spread offenses in high school, and moved away from traditional run-heavy, defense-centric schemes. They then fed those quarterbacks to colleges, where the spread continued to spread.

And when those quarterbacks landed in the NFL, teams had no choice but to employ some spread concepts, willingly or unwillingly, to try to take advantage of their quarterbacks’ strengths.

“When we had Vince Young, we had to mix in a lot of that with [offensive coordinators] Norm Chow and Mike Heimerdinger,” Loggains said.

Rather than an NFL idea trickling down, a byproduct of a high school idea trickled up.

And one scout I spoke with said he sees no end to it.

“That’s the new craze, the seven-on-seven stuff,” he said. “Texas has been doing it longer and it’s the most organized state. How many good quarterbacks have come out of Texas the last 10 years? A ton. The more reps you get at anything, the better you’ll be at it.

“It’s why I stink so bad at golf.”

My trip to the NFL owners meetings last month included a chance encounter with an NFL executive. We discussed the state of what has become a highly competitive and interesting division from a league perspective, given the Green Bay Packers' recent success, the Detroit Lions' explosive offense and the Chicago Bears' flurry of offseason improvements.

And then we got to the Minnesota Vikings.

"Big year for Leslie Frazier," the executive said. "Big year."

That perspective caught me by surprise, given that Frazier has spent exactly one full season as the Vikings' permanent head coach. But Frazier is also entering what reportedly is the final fully guaranteed year of his contract, and the long-term approach the Vikings have taken toward building their roster provides a substantial challenge to a coach with limited job security.

That's a nice way of saying Frazier probably needs to do a lot better in 2012 than the 3-13 record he produced last year, but with a roster that won't be constructed to support a quick turnaround. It's an unfortunate collection of circumstances that Frazier is only partially to blame for, but when viewed in the big picture, you can understand why the executive sees 2012 as a pressure point for his career.

(My friend Judd Zulgad of 1500ESPN.com made a similar point last week.)

When the Vikings promoted Rick Spielman to general manager in January, Frazier said the move "should help me tremendously." Generally speaking, working for a good general manager is a healthy situation for any coach.

But since that point, the Vikings have dismantled their offensive line by releasing both starting guards and making plans to shift left tackle Charlie Johnson inside. They've given young quarterback Christian Ponder one more established playmaker, tight end John Carlson, but otherwise left their offensive skill positions untouched in free agency. They've bid farewell to their nose tackle and middle linebacker, tapping longtime backups as the likely successor in each role, and left untouched two safety positions that ended 2011 in shambles.

Spielman has made no secret of his intention: To get younger, to find blue-chip players in the draft and to supplement with complementary players in free agency. That's a sound philosophy for building long-term success, but it sure doesn't work in favor of a coach whose career record is now 6-16.

Take a look at the chart. A little more than half of the NFL's coaches (18 of 32) have reached a third full season in their jobs. Only four of them made it without the benefit of at least one non-losing season in their first two. And the only two who didn't demonstrate progress were the Washington Redskins' Mike Shanahan and the Seattle Seahawks' Pete Carroll, both of whom carried enough celebrity status -- and not to mention huge financial investments -- to be all but assured of a third season from the moment they arrived.

But consider the Vikings' placement in the NFC North, which put three teams among the top 10 in ESPN.com's most recent Power Rankings. Remember that they will be starting Ponder, who is in the midst of his first NFL offseason. Ponder will play behind a rebuilt offensive line, with a set of receivers who will either be underwhelming or inexperienced or both.

In a best-case scenario, tailback Adrian Peterson (knee) will resume football activities shortly before the season begins. And in a division that includes star quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler, it's worth noting the Vikings' historically poor pass defense hasn't been enhanced this offseason with a single defensive back who could be considered a starter. (Perhaps that sentence will need editing after the draft.)

Does that seem like a collection of circumstances favorable to a coach demonstrating significant progress in 2012? Not particularly, no.

To be clear, I don't think the Vikings are in an inappropriate spot as a franchise. This has been coming since the moment they failed to reach the Super Bowl in 2009. It's just poor timing for Frazier.

The best time to make these kinds of difficult decisions is in the first year of a coach's tenure. You take the resulting lumps when your job is most secure, and then presumably demonstrate steady progress thereafter. The Vikings lost 13 of 16 games last season in a misguided attempt to push an aging roster toward one final playoff berth. It was a lost year in every way, and only now do they face a the proverbial bottoming-out. I don't want to say Leslie Frazier is set up to fail, but the deck seems stacked against him.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Chicago Bears

Key additions: Running back Michael Bush, linebacker/special teams Blake Costanzo, quarterback Jason Campbell, receiver Brandon Marshall (trade), receiver Devin Thomas, receiver/returner Eric Weems.

Key losses: Running back Marion Barber (retired), cornerback Zack Bowman, cornerback Corey Graham.

Come on back: Lost in the shuffle of the Marshall trade were the return of three free agents who should play key roles in 2012. Tight end Kellen Davis figures to get an expanded role in offensive coordinator Mike Tice's scheme, especially as a receiver. Cornerback Tim Jennings should retain his starting role opposite Charles Tillman, with D.J. Moore in the nickel. And safety Craig Steltz will provide reliable depth at safety and will be one of the Bears' special teams leaders after the departure of Graham and Bowman.

What's next: There is no urgency yet, but the Bears will need to make peace with tailback Matt Forte at some point before the summer. Forte isn't happy that he's been made the Bears' franchise player and briefly lost his public composure when Bush signed a deal that guaranteed him about the same amount of money as the franchise tag will pay Forte. It's not a big deal if Forte skips the Bears' offseason program or even misses a few days of training camp, but the Bears will want to find a way to eliminate this issue by early August. Meanwhile, it wouldn't be surprising if the Bears address their offensive line during the draft.

Detroit Lions

Key additions: Defensive end Everette Brown, cornerback Jacob Lacey.

Key losses: Cornerback Eric Wright.

All in the family: With the exception of Wright, the Lions were able to retain the core of their 10-6 team. Among those who re-signed: Tackle Jeff Backus, safety Erik Coleman, defensive end Andre Fluellen, quarterback Shaun Hill and linebacker Stephen Tulloch. And don't forget that receiver Calvin Johnson is locked up for perhaps the rest of his career. He signed a new eight-year contract worth $132 million.

What's next: The Lions appear interested in adding competition at safety, having hosted free agent O.J. Atogwe earlier this month. Adding a safety remains a possibility, if not through free agency, then probably through the draft. And while Backus is re-signed for two years, it wouldn't be surprising if the Lions look for a long-term replacement in the draft.

Green Bay Packers

Key additions: Defensive lineman Daniel Muir, center Jeff Saturday, defensive lineman Anthony Hargrove.

Key losses: Quarterback Matt Flynn, center Scott Wells.

Shocker: The Packers usually do whatever it takes to keep their own players and avoid having to search the free-agent market for other the castoffs of other teams. They started off that way by re-signing tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year contract, but when they were unable to sign center Scott Wells, they quickly targeted veteran Jeff Saturday and made him their first starting-caliber free-agent signee in five years. General manager Ted Thompson also authorized the acquisition of Hargrove and the pursuit of Dave Tollefson.

What's next: It's not out of the question that the Packers will add a veteran pass-rusher, whether at defensive end or linebacker. Then they'll get back into their comfort zone and start preparing for the draft, where it's reasonable to think they'll use at least one of their 12 picks on a center while also continuing to pursue pass-rushers.

Minnesota Vikings

Key additions: Cornerback Zack Bowman, tight end John Carlson, running back Jerome Felton and offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz.

Key losses: Nose tackle Remi Ayodele (release), guards Anthony Herrera (release) and Steve Hutchinson (release), tight end Jim Kleinsasser (retire), running back Jerome Felton.

Methodical methodology: The Vikings made one big-money signing, bringing in Carlson as a new weapon for quarterback Christian Ponder, and otherwise have spent their offseason getting younger and signing complementary players. General manager Rick Spielman wants to end a cycle of seeking blue-chip players via free agency and instead count on the drafts for his difference-makers.

What's next: One way or the other, the Vikings need to find a deep threat for Ponder. The draft would seem the most likely place for that will happen. They are also midway through a rebuild of the secondary that could use at least one more cornerback and perhaps two safeties.

Bob Sansevere's column provides us with another instance of Minnesota Vikings general manager Rick Spielman going out of his way to suggest that he is far from certain to draft USC tackle Matt Kalil with the No. 3 overall pick in the April draft.

Last month, Spielman on multiple occasions noted how important it is to surround a young quarterback with playmakers, and fill in at left tackle as needed. More recently, Spielman asked Sansevere to name the starting left tackles of the past two Super Bowl champions and apparently talked up LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne.

I judged the first instance to be blatant draft posturing, and the second might well fall into the same category. But let's take a closer look and make sure we all understand why Kalil is the presumed pick at No. 3 rather than Claiborne, Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon or even Alabama running back Trent Richardson.

First off, it's true that the Giants won Super Bowl XLVI with a replacement left tackle, David Diehl, who took over during the season for an injured Will Beatty, a second-round draft pick in 2009. The Packers won Super Bowl XLV with left tackle Chad Clifton, a third-round draft pick in 2000 and two-time Pro Bowler. For good measure, we should note that the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers advanced to the title games with Matt Light and Jonathan Scott starting at left tackle, respectively. Light was a second-round pick in 2001 and is a four-time Pro Bowl player; Scott was a fifth-round pick of the Detroit Lions in 2006.

That cross section of history allows Spielman to make an obvious point: There is no step-by-step manual for building a championship team, other than having a good quarterback, and a contending team does not necessarily need an elite left tackle. But to me, the argument for Kalil is not so much that he plays left tackle but that he is widely assessed -- at least by media draft analysts -- to be the third-best player in the draft.

The Vikings shouldn't target Kalil just because he is a left tackle, nor should they zero in on Claiborne because they are thin at cornerback or Blackmon because they want a downfield threat for quarterback Christian Ponder. The only relevant question is who the best player is.

So we will give Spielman some leeway here. I still think his public statements lend themselves more to posturing than honest assessments. But if he and his scouts truly judge Claiborne or Blackmon or even Richardson as a better prospect than Kalil, then by all means they should draft that player and put up that evaluation to stand the test of history.

If that's the case, however, you can only hope that Spielman will have made a position-neutral decision. At such a high spot in the draft, it seems like splitting hairs to debate which position is more valuable. The only choice at No. 3 is to take the best player. The media consensus suggests it's Kalil, but the media has been wrong before.

Thanks to AFC West colleague Bill Williamson, we've known for a few hours that the Minnesota Vikings were likely to make tight end John Carlson their first free-agent signing. And now ESPN's Adam Schefter has confirmed Carlson agreed to a five-year deal worth $25 million during a visit Wednesday.

Carlson is a Minnesota native and figures to team with fellow Notre Dame alumnus Kyle Rudolph to form a potent set of pass-catching tight ends. One of general manager Rick Spielman's top goals is to surround young quarterback Christian Ponder with more playmakers in the passing game, and that can be accomplished through the addition of a tight end as easily as a wide receiver.

The question on Carlson is his health, which the Vikings presumably checked out in great detail before finalizing Wednesday's agreement. He missed all of last season with the Seattle Seahawks because of a torn labrum, and he hasn't played since suffering a scary concussion during the Seahawks' 2010 divisional playoff game at Soldier Field.

It was the third concussion Carlson has suffered in his football career, according to reports at the time, and he was taken off the field in an ambulance. We have our fair share of experience with concussions here in the NFC North, but at this point we have to defer to the Vikings' medical staff as it relates to Carlson.

ESPN.com's blog editors have put together a comprehensive chart of the 21 franchise players for 2012. That's a high number, but it still leaves dozens of high-quality players to hit the free agent market next week.

I'm sure we'll discuss a number of them over the ensuing days, but for now I think we should recognize that San Diego Chargers receiver Vincent Jackson is highly regarded by multiple NFC North teams. The Chargers did not franchise Jackson, making him one of the top prizes of the free agent market.

It got overshadowed by subsequent events, but the Minnesota Vikings pushed hard to acquire Jackson via trade in 2010. Rebuffed near the trade deadline, the Vikings turned instead to talks with the New England Patriots and Randy Moss. I'm sure you remember what happened next.

Jackson is two years older and the Vikings are in a different place now, but they are just as bereft of receivers now as they were in 2010. General manager Rick Spielman has spoken often this offseason of getting quarterback Christian Ponder more help from playmaking positions.

Jackson isn't believed to be eager to leave San Diego, where he has excelled in Norv Turner's offense and has a good relationship with quarterback Philip Rivers. He might not be ready to start over with a young quarterback, but he wouldn't have to if another NFC North team pursues him.

The Chicago Bears have a significant need at receiver, and Jackson could team with quarterback Jay Cutler to make an instant impact. The Bears' plans under new general manager Phil Emery remain unclear from a public perspective, but given the state of the position, it's easy to envision the Bears making a serious run at Jackson next week. Stay tuned.