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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set, where they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense, and helps set Luck and the offense up with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

And should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Colts and why.

The Colts are changing in a big way on defense -- they aim to be bigger, more physical and better against the run. Although they talk of being a hybrid, they want to be a base 3-4 front.

To me, the pressure point will be split between two guys: Coach Chuck Pagano, the architect of the scheme, and the guy who will have to answer for its progress. His coordinator, Greg Manusky, will help spread the message, install the system and draw up game plans. The coach and his coordinator share the pressure for a unit that is converting high-quality 4-3 ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis into outside linebackers.

The two are excellent rushers, and there is risk in asking them to stand up and change. But they’ll be charging quarterbacks from a variety of spots, and offenses probably prefer to know where exactly they’ll be lining up.

Pagano helped Indianapolis land three players he coached in Baltimore: nose tackle Brandon McKinney, end Cory Redding, and safety Tom Zbikowski. The draft added only fifth-round nose tackle Josh Chapman and and seventh-round end Tim Fugger.

How much of the personnel deficiencies, especially in the secondary, can Pagano and Manusky cover up with scheme?

Who’s playing pass defense for the Indianapolis Colts?

New coach Chuck Pagano will convert the Colts, a longtime 4-3 team, to a 3-4. He’s cited the Texans’ changeover a year ago as an example of how it can happen in one year and how the front actually gets scrambled up and can often still have the look of a 4-3.

In Year 1 for Pagano in Indianapolis, however, it’s the personnel that may dictate more of the old base front. The Colts signed a veteran nose tackle (Brandon McKinney) and a veteran end (Cory Redding), and drafted a nose tackle in fifth-rounder Josh Chapman. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will be less predictable coming forward from outside linebacker positions.

The problem is in the secondary.

Indianapolis was 15th against the pass last year. But that ranking is misleading because offenses could run against the Colts and often handed off while trying to run time off the clock and preserve leads.

Antoine Bethea is a quality free safety and Jerraud Powers is a good corner. Beyond them, the Colts are thin and unproven in the defensive backfield.

They didn’t draft any defensive backs, though their initial undrafted rookie group of 15 includes five of them.

No matter how well the Colts rush out of the new front, the team needs people behind it who can cover, which is not the strong suit of the veteran addition to the group, strong safety Tom Zbikowski.

His boss encouraged him to continue to find time to work out. So even in the most harried and stressful times in the frantic early stages of his tenure as the Colts' new general manager, Ryan Grigson periodically found his way to the team’s weight room.

“I lift weights a few times a week,” he said. “I should do more cardio. I feel like I got ran so hard as an athlete, if I don’t have to run I don’t want to. I like to lift hard.”

Forty-five hard minutes or an hour in the weight room take him way back, to early childhood memories.

“We had York weights in my basement. I was five years old and I’d see my dad down there with my uncles with their work boots on and cutoffs and tool belts, down there lifting. My brother is a big lifter. I just stick to basic movements that crush you real fast. It’s more work and less time. That’s all I can do here.

“The workout is the same every time: dips, pull-ups and bench press. I do it hard and I do it fast and I get out. It definitely clears your head. It’s good to get that blood flowing. Even early on [Colts owner] Jim Irsay would tell me, ‘Get in that weight room, get a workout.’ It gives you energy. When I was burning that midnight oil early on to the point it was ridiculous, when you had no time to sleep because you couldn’t turn your mind off, without those workouts, coffee and the support of my wife, I don’t know if I would have made it through.”

He had more to make it through than most first-time general managers.

Grigson took over a team that was about to part ways with an icon. He had no relationship with Peyton Manning, and Irsay was making the call. But as Grigson was introduced as the new GM, and later when he spoke to the press at the combine, he faced hard questions he couldn’t really answer. He sweated under the bright lights, and squirmed at least a little.

Nearly anyone would have.

Fast forward to last week’s draft.

He looked and sounded like a different guy, talking about his draft picks and the start of something, not the end.

“People have told me that, that I seem more relaxed,” he said. “When I am in the moment before, I’m still being me, maybe I just have my game face on, I don’t know. It sure is nice now to be able to talk about the guys we took and not have to sidestep anything.”

He’s not being cliché when he talks about going day-by-day, minute-by-minute, and even second-by-second. He spoke of being ultra-focused. When you are a laser beam like that, it’s believable when you talk of having no timetables for a return to prominence.

Before the draft, Irsay tweeted out a reminder of how long it took the Colts to win a playoff game after drafting Peyton Manning in 1998. (The Colts beat the Broncos and the Chiefs in the 2003 postseason.) Many analysts thought the plea for patience wasn’t something the owner needed to send out at that time.

But clearly, despite adding No. 1 pick Andrew Luck, the Colts need time. They cut or lost at least 10 of the 22 players who would have been opening day starters if the old regime stayed in place and kept its people. They are eating a giant amount of dead money against their 2012 salary cap to gain financial freedom in 2013.

When I said something about the need for patience being obvious, Grigson was pleased.

“That’s refreshing to hear you say that,” he said. “A lot of people seem to think that we can do that all at once. You have to have four drafts combined and 30 picks to get all the best players that you wanted. It’s not happening.

“There has to be an element of patience within the organization. That was a very key trait I saw in Mr. Irsay from day one. We have pillar guys who are helping us moving forward. But everyone knows no one is looking at us to do anything.”

The Colts couldn’t address every position of need in the draft and they have to reshape some of what remains. Indy will have to scheme around and deal with being weak at certain positions this year, like at cornerback.

“There are positions that scheme-wise, haven’t been as vital due to what they did,” Grigson said. “At specific positions we need different body types maybe, different types of athletes with different skill sets.”

During the initial minicamp and in offseason workouts, guys have picked things up, bought in and started learning nuances of the position that may be different. Players who will ultimately be gone may be asked to transform their game.

“They’re working, it’s nice to see guys really working,” Grigson said. “Coach [Chuck] Pagano and his staff have created an air of enthusiasm. We know we have a very long road to hoe and no one denies that. But we’re out there doing what we can control, and that’s to go full speed, to listen, to get in the playbook, to lift the weights, to condition, do all those things, the little things with high intensity.

“I look at it in a very simplistic view. I tell my kids if you hustle and work really hard, good things happen. If you cherry pick and just kind of loaf around, nothing’s ever going to fall in your lap. You’re not going to be that guy who gets a fumble recovery for a touchdown or a pick bounces off someone’s shoulder pads and lands in your hands. That usually happens to someone who’s flying around.”

His wife and five children have not joined him in Indianapolis yet, which gave him more leeway to put in the ridiculous hours he felt were necessary before the draft. His only respites were those weight room sessions, Sunday Mass and an occasional frozen pizza heated up and eaten while he watched the news or found a decent movie, preferably a comedy.

Otherwise, he was watching film, assessing issues, making decisions.

When I’ve asked people around the league about Grigson, they talk about him with respect. He’s regarded as a quality personnel man with the qualities needed to lead a front office and build a team. He inherited a tough situation with Manning’s departure, but he’s also incredibly fortunate to have Luck.

Grigson knows this rebuild is going to be hard and take time. He’s excited to get to another stage, where he can walk past the clicker in his office and not have it work like a magnet, pulling him back to watch more film. At this stage, player study no longer trumps everything else.

But even at this slower time, there is plenty pulling at him, plenty to do. He will soon add to his scouting staff. He’ll continue to work with Pagano, trying to maximize the coach’s chances of success. He’ll watch offseason practices, considering the tiny pictures and the big picture the tiny ones combine to create.

“It’s like I’m a rookie left tackle and every game I’m facing Michael Strahan, Bruce Smith, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis,” he said. “Hopefully in the end all these experiences that I’ve had will help me to be a better GM and a better football man.”

Hopefully, at least three times a week, he’ll find his way to that weight room, fall into his routine, and build up the sort of big sweat that clears his head, at least for a little while.

“As long as it keeps me from looking real bad,” Grigson said, “then I’ll keep doing it.”

INDIANAPOLIS -- Ryan Grigson's film study of Andrew Luck took him beyond reads and recognition, mechanics and throws.

“You’re talking about a guy who, when there is a busted play or he throws an interception, he runs down and hits like a linebacker,” the Colts general manager said. “On a trick play, he shows the ball skills of an elite receiver.”

Those are nice clips from Stanford, for sure, and they reveal much about the Indianapolis Colts new quarterback.

But with Luck officially their man, Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano have effectively taken a pledge to add people and craft a scheme to maximize his chances at success -- and not when he turns into a defender or a receiver. If the Colts' new regime stays true to that obligation, it shouldn’t be long before Luck is doing what top NFL quarterbacks do -- completing passes in critical situations and leading his team to wins and playoff appearances.

It’s a familiar storyline for sure. It's the same oath the franchise took with Peyton Manning in 1998.

“I think this thing happened 14 years ago,” Pagano said. “I think it’s all happening again, right before our eyes.”

Pagano went on to rattle off a list of qualities everybody wants in his quarterback and top players: football IQ, character, integrity, work ethic, good family background, worldliness, humility, leadership, passion and competitiveness.

“When you look at clean players across the board, when you talk about height, weight, speed, intelligence -- A to Z, if you want to label him a nine or 10 in everyone of those categories, you probably can,” Pagano said.

The Colts are not slated to pick again until 34th, the second pick of the second round Friday night.

A chorus of analysts say they are duty-bound to add someone who can help Luck, despite the pull Pagano, a former defensive coordinator, may feel for a defender. My opinion is they don’t absolutely have to go offense the next time they are on the clock, but in this draft and until the roster is filled out, they should lean that direction more often than not.

Grigson emphasized “this is a team” and that the Colts will do things with a team mindset, acquiring good players, regardless of position.

But, he also admitted the obvious.

“Of course you want to protect him the best you can, you want to put players around him that are going to make him comfortable, you want to do things to help facilitate him being great,” Grigson said.

Pagano has emphasized running the ball well and stopping the run, elements that are typically regarded as providing aide to a young quarterback, but elements too that have become less and less important to Super Bowl-winning teams in the modern NFL.

“You’ve got to protect the kid, you’ve got to put enough pieces and enough playmakers around him,” Pagano said. “… You can add a piece here and you can add a piece there to make sure that everything doesn’t rely on Andrew making plays with his arm and running around making plays with his feet outside the pocket and extending plays and things like that. We’ve got to play great defense too, I’m not going to slight that.”

The Colts want to protect Luck with good blocking, but are also conscious they will have to protect him from himself as he looks to inherit Manning’s mantle, revive a franchise coming off a horrific year that prompted monumental changes, and give the city a new sporting face.

“He’s going to be eager to come in here and think that he’s got to carry this whole thing on his shoulders,” Pagano said. “And that’s the first thing we’re going to tell him. He doesn’t have to do that. He’s just got to do what he does and that’s play quarterback. And he plays it really well.”

As good as he is coming into the league, Luck is not a finished product. What great collegian is?

Pagano hired Bruce Arians as his offensive coordinator because he effectively helped shape Manning here early on as well.

The new quarterback will arrive in town Friday knowing he’s got plenty he can work on as he evolves into a professional. Play calling can be a big help to him as well, Pagano said.

I wrote earlier of traits Luck has that date back to high school, and how they can be contagious for a rebuilding franchise. He said he doesn’t know if his long-time ability to compartmentalize will be needed more or less as he becomes a full-time football player. It’s just another of the many things he will learn in the months and years ahead.

For right now, Luck said the most exciting part of things is becoming part of a new locker room and getting to “meet the guys.” It was a Manning-esque comment, deflecting focus, aiming to share it.

Luck said it’ll be an honor to throw to Reggie Wayne, whom he called a future Hall of Famer, as well as Austin Collie and Donnie Avery. He said it will be big to be able to learn leadership qualities from Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

And he seemed thrilled to hear Grigson and Pagano talk about how they’ll surround him.

“It’s exciting to be part of a team where they are saying that they need playmakers and all of that,” he said. “I’m looking forward to it. … You don’t want to get too ahead of yourself. You have to realize you have to go through a whole process leading up to a game through a season.

“That being said, I do have high expectations for myself. And I’ll try to do the best I can. I know it’s cliché, but I’ll try to live up to my own expectations and fit in with all the guys and then do the best we can.”

INDIANAPOLIS -- While the Colts await the official start of the Andrew Luck era, earlier Thursday they had a minicamp practice. It was Dwight Freeney’s first time on the field since Chuck Pagano has taken over, and his first time lining up as an outside linebacker in a new 3-4 defense.

Here’s Freeney, via Phillip B. Wilson of the Indianapolis Star:

“It’s going to be interesting. It’s fun right now, at least, just doing something different. I’ve been doing one way for what, 10 years going on 11 years. It’s kind of fun to do something different.

“And you know it’s a proven system. Guys can make plays. We’ll see what happens.”

Freeney said he’s talked to Baltimore middle linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed about the 3-4 system that new Colts coach Chuck Pagano has brought from his days as the Ravens defensive coordinator. Pagano has said the Colts will play a hybrid defense, sometimes in a 3-4 and other plays in a 4-3 alignment.

“They love (Pagano). They love the system,” Freeney said. “They said, ‘You’re going to love it.’ I guess it’s a rush friendly type of scheme, which I love.”

There is still buzz about the Colts looking to trade Freeney. But he’d have to strike a new deal with a new team to reduce the scheduled base salary of over $14 million in the final year of his current deal.

Indy has 10 picks, but three of them are in the seventh round.

Anything they can do to get more and draft players who can help Luck on offense and speed the conversion of the defense would be welcome. Since Freeney is only assured of one more year here and is so expensive, dealing him would make sense.

But as Peter King points out in that piece I linked, the Eagles getting only a seventh-rounder for cornerback Asante Samuel from the Falcons says a lot about the trade market for veterans.

I think it’s crazy, personally. Freeney can still rush the passer. The odds you hit a home run with even a third-rounder that makes the pick more valuable over a career than the three years of Freeney would be worth are exceptionally low.

Freeney said he’s under contract and expecting to play it through.

Thoughts on the Colts' draft from two people involved in evaluating personnel for NFL teams:

Guy No. 1:

“I like general manager Ryan Grigson and his first pick is a stud. Nice start.”

“If they are running a standard, pro-style offense, Stanford tight end Coby Fleener would be a great addition for Andrew Luck if he lasts until 34.”

“I like Anthony Castonzo better at right tackle, he’s not a true left tackle to me. But there won’t be one of those at 34.”

“At 34, their goal should be to add something for Luck.”

Guy No. 2:

“The best thing they can do for Luck at the top of the second is help him with a skill guy. Pierre Garcon is gone. Reggie Wayne is old. The tight ends are nobodies. Donald Brown is a nobody. “

“As much as Chuck Pagano has to have help defensively, as much as he’d like a multidimensional pass-rusher like Dont’a Hightower -- a guy like Terrell Suggs or Adalius Thomas who made Baltimore go -- you draft a QB No. 1, you better help him out.

“Whether you are Bill Polian or Ryan Grigson, if you draft that guy No. 1, you have to surround him with weapons. Otherwise he’ll look like [Sam] Bradford in St. Louis. They think they were protecting him with offensive linemen. Woo. But they have nobody to make a play for him.”

“I don’t think Coby Fleener makes it to 34. If he makes it to 32, he won’t get past the Giants.”

“You can help a quarterback with a guy he can hand the ball too. Doug Martin is compact and multidimensional. A lot of the other backs in this draft are specialty players.”

Bob Sanders is long gone, and injury-prone Melvin Bullitt is not with the Indianapolis Colts anymore.

Indianapolis has a dire need at strong safety, where the Colts platooned David Caldwell and Joe Lefeged last season after Bullitt was lost early on with a shoulder injury.

They need an upgrade next to free safety Antoine Bethea, a strong player against both the pass and the run.

According to ESPN Stats and Info, the Colts defense was last in the NFL on throws more than10 air yards inside the numbers in three important categories: completion percentage (72.7), yards per attempt (16.1) and attempts per TD (7.9).

Better defense on short passes over the middle is an absolute necessity for the Colts if they are going to be more effective under first-year coach Chuck Pagano and defensive coordinator Greg Manusky.

Safety is thin in the draft, and strong safety is particularly thin. Possible candidates include South Carolina's Antonio Allen (fourth or fifth round projection), Alabama's DeQuan Menzie (fifth), Arkansas State's Kelcie McCray (fifth), LSU's Brandon Taylor (sixth).

Can one of those guys start on opening day? It'll probably take a good combination of scouting projecting and coaching to make it happen.

Breakdown: The Minnesota Vikings' schedule reflects low expectations for their 2012 season. They'll have one prime-time game, a Thursday night matchup in Week 8 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and all 13 of their other 15 games are scheduled for the early 1 p.m. ET Sunday time slot.

The good news is that the Vikings have a chance for a decent start. They'll host the Jacksonville Jaguars, led by first-year coach Mike Mularkey, in Week 1. And then they'll travel to the rebuilding Indianapolis Colts, led by another first-year coach in Chuck Pagano and presumably led by rookie quarterback Andrew Luck.

Even for a team with modest goals, a 2-0 start is within reach.

Complaint department: The Vikings will play four of their final six games on the road, including potential cold-weather games in Green Bay and Chicago. That's not a schedule conducive to a young team hoping to progress as the season wears on. And while the Vikings-Packers rivalry has diminished in recent years, it would be nice to see at least one of the games take place before December. But as this schedule reads, the teams will play at Lambeau Field in Week 13 and at the Metrodome in Week 17.

Final Minnesota game? The collapse of the Vikings' stadium bill puts the focus on their long-term future and begs this question: Will the Packers-Vikings game in Week 17 be the Vikings' final game in Minnesota? In many ways, the Packers would be an appropriate opponent for that game. Minnesota was Packers country before the NFL placed the Vikings there in 1960.

Vikings Regular-Season Schedule (All times Eastern)
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 9, Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 16, at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, San Francisco, 1:00 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 30, at Detroit, 1:00 PM
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 7, Tennessee, 1:00 PM
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 14, at Washington, 4:15 PM
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 21, Arizona, 1:00 PM
Week 8: Thursday, Oct. 25, Tampa Bay, 8:20 PM
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 4, at Seattle, 4:05 PM
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 11, Detroit, 1:00 PM
Week 11: BYE
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 25, at Chicago, 1:00 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2, at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, Chicago, 1:00 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 16, at St. Louis, 1:00 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 23, at Houston, 1:00 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 30, Green Bay, 1:00 PM

Presuming the Colts make Andrew Luck the No. 1 pick in the draft on April 26, will they focus the rest of their draft on building the offense around him?

In a conference call with reporters Wednesday, ESPN’s Jon Gruden was asked about the necessity of giving Luck help in the rest of the draft.

"I think the Colts are a lot different team now, obviously, then they were five years ago. Not only do they have to address needs in the draft, they’re going to have to continue to do that after the draft and in free agency. Obviously a quarterback’s success rate is largely dependent upon those around him, not just on the field but you’ve got to embrace a new system.

"I know Bruce Arians is coming over from the Pittsburgh Steelers (as offensive coordinator), they’ve got a new head coach (in Chuck Pagano). They’ve got to increase their personnel. Marvin Harrison is gone. Reggie Wayne is at a different stage in his career. Dallas Clark is gone. I don’t know who the feature back is going to be.

"So I would assume, if Indianapolis does indeed select Andrew Luck, that they will try to upgrade the supporting cast on the field as much as possible."

I think general manager Ryan Grigson will likely need to be careful about leaning too much on one side of the ball.

While the Colts need help at receiver, tight end, on the offensive line and possibly at running back, they also need a strong safety, interior defensive linemen and cornerbacks.

Let’s remember Pagano is a defensive guy and that there are plenty of ways significant defensive additions can help Luck, too -- like by getting him the ball back in good field position.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Houston Texans

Key additions: None.

Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).

Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.

Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.

What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.

But the Texans are not without need.

While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.

Indianapolis Colts

Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).

Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.

So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got – starting with a nose tackle.

On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.

What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.

They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.

Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).

Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold onto players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.

They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.

What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.

The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.

The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.

Tennessee Titans

Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.

Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.

Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.

Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.

What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.

Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?

Nickel defenses are played more than ever in the NFL.

But the AFC South may be moving the other direction in games against each other.

The Texans are comfortable lining up with three wide receivers or splitting tight end Owen Daniels out into spread formations. The Jaguars and Titans figured to remain running back-centric. If the Titans get a bounce-back from Chris Johnson, they will likely run more. Of course those two teams can spread things out with the intent to run, of course.

But two games when AFC South teams loaded up with nickel packages are likely to change.

The departure of Peyton Manning from the Colts means one team that dictated constant nickel defenses is being altered. New coach Chuck Pagano has talked about running and stopping the run and GM Ryan Grigson said Monday he expects the Colts to be a fullback team.

A linebacker is typically going to stay on the field against a two-back set. The lack of a precision passing offense and weapons like Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon will make it tougher for the Colts to dictate a team's defensive personnel, or to take advantage of it.

"The third linebacker or the nickel corner?” Texans coach Gary Kubiak said at the owners meetings, repeating a question about what’s more important. “You look at your schedule and say, 'OK, what are we going to play this year? Are we going to be in nickel all year, or are we going to be trying to stop the run?' I think that's what things will come down to.

“One year you might be out there in nickel defense 60 or 70 percent of the time. The next year it could be 50. It all starts with your division. When Peyton was at Indy, if we didn't have three good corners we were in trouble every time we played them. So I think you've kind of got to build your roster to compete in your division, No. 1, and make that decision."

This means the Jaguars will have two more games where they can play more with their great linebacking trio of Paul Posluszny, Daryl Smith and Clint Session on the field together.

This means the Titans' new nickelback -- whether he's an outsider or Ryan Mouton, Chris Hawkins or Tommie Campbell -- isn't going to be as important against Indy as recent ones have been.

This means DeMeco Ryans' replacement in the Texans base defense, Darryl Sharpton, will get additional snaps.

Is that better or worse? As good as Andrew Luck will be coming out of Stanford, defenses are going to want to play the rebuilding Colts in 2012.

Points of interest from a conference conversation between Colts general manager Ryan Grigson and the Indianapolis media, per a transcript provided by the team:

On three offensive line additions: “Anybody that I would have brought in here is someone who has a very good chance of competing and winning a job. This is going to be a very competitive environment, and that’s how we want to approach this thing at camp. Being very competitive so we’re bringing the best out of everyone. The cream rises to the top in any environment, and that’s the approach I want to take and that’s the approach Coach (Chuck) Pagano is comfortable with. That’s what we’re doing here with these types of players. They all have ability, they’re all wired a certain way and they play the game with a high tempo and they finish. We’re pleased with who we’ve brought into the fold thus far…”

Grigson

“The whole thing about the offensive line is that it’s a team within a team. It has to be cohesive and guys have to help one another and have a certain playing style. That certain playing style is what we’re trying to accomplish with these signings. Also, athletic ability comes into play at some point as well. We want guys who love to play the game, and it shows on film that they love to play the game. And that they play at the right tempo and play with a purpose. That’s to play snap to whistle, and that’s what we’re going to do.”

On wide receiver Donnie Avery: “He’s always been a fast guy. He was the first receiver taken. He’s had considerable production early on in his career, and of course, he as well as we (do), hope he gets back to that level. We sure hope he does, and I know he does. It’s a nice get for us based on what he brings to the table and what he can help in this (offense) with much-needed wrinkle of speed. And he’s a welcomed addition.”

On the status of Dwight Freeney: “Everything with Dwight is great. He’s going to be here this year. We expect him to be a major contributor, and a guy who strikes fear in our opponents and those offensive linemen every week. Moving forward, we’re going to take it day-by-day, and everything right now looks great for our defense with re-signing Robert (Mathis) and having Dwight in the fold. It sure makes me sleep better at night knowing those two guys are going to be bringing it on third down.”

On reports of Freeney on the trading block in order to get out from under his $19 million cap number: “There is a lot of speculation as I’m learning this thing. It’s pretty rampant, and there are a lot of rumors. Like I said, I think last time I addressed (that). There are a lot of rumors that fly, but there’s never been any substance that would suggest we’re doing anything like that. He’s a Colt, period.”

On plans to see the top quarterbacks:“We saw (Robert Griffin III). Circumstances didn’t allow us to do anything private with him, so we did the usual pro day. We did the best we could with that situation. We do have a private workout that we’re scheduling with Andrew (Luck) in the future, which will be here in the upcoming weeks.”

On starting negotiations with the number one draft pick early: “No. We’re going to do it the old fashion way, and that’s not something that’s been discussed at this point about how we would go about that. I think we’ll do it like team[s] always have and keep it simple.”

On the Colts being a fullback team: "As of right now, yes we’ll utilize a fullback. We also can utilize a tight end in a fullback type role. Those things are all evolving as we move forward here, and see what we actually have to actually pick in this draft. We’re still looking and digging for players and trying to get as deep of a pool of quality players that can come in and play for us from college free agents all the way up to the first round. We’re working on that and we’re going to try and plug in the best guys possible, and try to get as many guys in the fold as we can. We’re knocking it out every day as best we can. Hopefully, every day we make a little bit of progress and take it from there.”

Some thoughts that came out of Andrew Luck's pro day Thursday at Stanford.

Luck
• He confirmed he’ll have a private session with Colts' officials at Stanford in early April, Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star reported. That explains why GM Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano didn’t feel they had to be there.
• Colts quarterback coach Clyde Christensen told Chappell the workout looked like Luck’s game film, steady and solid. He also talked about Luck vs., Robert Griffin III: "I don't think you go wrong either way. You go back and forth and keep looking for something that you can put a little red mark, that they can't do this or can't do that, that maybe there's something (wrong) character-wise. And you can't find one on either kid.”
• ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said the session was “surgical,” and praised Luck’s consistent ball placement that gets receivers right where he wants them.
• Steve Young praised the athleticism and, especially, his feet. With Luck, the whole playbook will be open, “guard rail to guard rail.”
• Trent Dilfer said Luck’s ability to make “off-platform throws” is unique.
• RG3 had a great pro day too. Players are supposed to look great on their pro days. We’re entering the season where we will begin to hear a lot about why the conventional thinking that Luck is a better choice than Griffin is flawed. It makes for compelling TV and reading. But I like what Matt Williamson from Scouts Inc. is saying. He loves Griffin and he loves the Redskins' trade to the second slot in the draft. But he says the Baylor quarterback has reached his ceiling, and that ceiling is No. 2 in the draft.

Mike Chappell of the Indianapolis Star provides some good information from Andrew Luck's pro day here.

Most significantly, Chappell says that a day after they were part of the Colts contingent at Robert Griffin III’s pro day at Baylor, GM Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano were not in Palo Alto, Calif.

The team’s representatives were quarterback coach Clyde Christensen and area scout Matt Terpening.

I think it would be presumptuous to jump to any sort of conclusions about the top guys in Indy’s brain trust missing Luck’s workout.

As I wrote this morning, there is a sense among some scouts that the session was “a mere formality.”

The duo could have been trying to avoid the sort of attention that would have been on them watching a workout that’s open to the press when they can soon watch tape of it. As Luck’s presumed team, the Colts may have drawn a great deal of attention on the Stanford campus. They avoided Chappell, for one.

Grigson and Pagano may have felt they didn't need to see Luck throw live based on a report from their scouts or because they plan for him to throw during a visit to their facility that we don’t know about yet. Grigson may have seen Luck throw live multiple times last season. It’s unlikely Pagano did. I can’t imagine he wouldn’t see Luck throw at some point before the draft.

They could be trying to fuel the idea that RG3 is making a serious charge for the No. 1 pick in order to prompt a reaction from someone else, like the Redskins. They hold the No. 2 pick, though I don’t know what sort of reaction could help the Colts.

How did Luck look?

Mike Mayock of NFL Network had good things to say about Luck’s arm strength and performance in the wind.