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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Cardinals in 2012:

Dream scenario (11-5): A full offseason of healing and playbook study lets Kevin Kolb prove the Cardinals knew what they were doing when they acquired him from Philadelphia last offseason. There's plenty of credit to go around. The team's decision to reassign assistant coach John McNulty from receivers to quarterbacks becomes a popular storyline. There's no doubt Kolb's mechanics have improved, but talent and good health are what win football games.

Michael Floyd's addition through the draft makes the Cardinals' passing game nearly impossible to defend, particularly with second-year back Ryan Williams emerging as the game-breaking runner Arizona was convinced it had drafted. Adding young linemen for Russ Grimm to develop also pays off, particularly as the season progresses. Bobby Massie looks like a keeper at right tackle. On the other side, Levi Brown picks up where he left off last season, proving Arizona was right in re-signing him to a five-year contract.

The transformation on defense surprises even the Cardinals. Yes, Arizona made strides on that side of the ball while winning seven of its final nine games in 2011. But there was no way anyone could have expected Sam Acho to challenge Simeon Rice's season franchise record for sacks since 1982 (Rice had 16.5 in 1999). With a healthy Dan Williams at nose tackle and Acho pumping up an already underrated pass rush, cornerback Patrick Peterson takes the next logical step in his development: picking off passes and returning them for touchdowns.

Winning at San Francisco in Week 17 delivers an 11-5 record and the NFC West title to Arizona, the team's third division crown in five years.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): No one can blame Gregg Williams or Jonathan Vilma for the concussion Kolb suffers in the Hall of Fame Game against New Orleans to open the exhibition season. Some in the Cardinals' organization welcome the switch to John Skelton, but with Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells predictably battling knee problems, the offense becomes one-dimensional. That's tough for a team with Brown and a rookie starting at tackle. Kolb's return after a few weeks means as much as it did last season -- nothing.

By October, it's clear the Cardinals didn't do enough at tackle or outside linebacker to take the next step. Those offseason stories about a full offseason helping Kolb seemed justified at the time, but we should have known better. McNulty's coaching helps, but players revert to form under pressure and Kolb is no exception. He wasn't going to develop instincts all of a sudden, was he? Aldon Smith's three-sack game against Arizona on Monday night in Week 8 doesn't seem so bad when Clay Matthews collects four of them the following week.

For the second time in three seasons, the Cards finish 5-11 after getting blown out at San Francisco in Week 17. The quarterback questions persisting upon Kurt Warner's retirement continue to linger. Watching Peyton Manning in the playoffs doesn't help.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Rams in 2012:

Dream scenario (8-8): Sam Bradford takes every snap on offense for the second time in three seasons as the Rams protect their franchise quarterback with sensible play calling. It's the sixth time a Jeff Fisher-coached team finishes 8-8, but no one is complaining after the Rams' 15-65 run over the previous five seasons. Trusting offensive line coach Paul Boudreau to salvage right tackle Jason Smith becomes one of the surprise success stories of the 2012 season, and a critical one for the Rams' efforts to re-establish Bradford.

Turns out the Rams were not fibbing when they suggested Brian Quick, the receiver they took in the second round, ranked up there with first-rounder Justin Blackmon on their board. The constant threat of Steven Jackson and Isaiah Pead out of the backfield creates favorable matchups for Quick and the Rams' underrated receivers. Bradford publicly downplays a Week 2 victory over Robert Griffin III and Washington, but it feels good to win at home against the player St. Louis could have selected second overall this year.

Watching Janoris Jenkins score on a fourth-quarter punt return in Patrick Peterson's house improbably stakes the Rams to a 6-5 record, stirring visions of the postseason. It's certainly sweet to finally win within the division again. The Rams lose to San Francisco the following week and ultimately finish the regular season with a respectable defeat at Seattle, but the season is a success by any measure.

Nightmare scenario (3-13): Road games against Detroit and Chicago in the first three weeks expose Bradford to significant punishment as Smith and the line struggle to find their bearings. Bradford doesn't want to talk about the ankle injury he aggravated at some point in the season's first month, but it's clearly a factor. Facing Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ndamukong Suh, Brian Orakpo, Ryan Kerrigan, Julius Peppers, Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, Cameron Wake and Clay Matthews in the first seven games leaves Bradford limping toward the bye week, his confidence shaken.

Steven Jackson continues to plug away, but we've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well for the Rams. The depth at receiver is indeed improved, but Bradford doesn't have any truly dynamic weapons. Quick understandably needs seasoning, but with Blackmon and Arizona's Michael Floyd challenging rookie receiving records, the Rams look bad for trading down. It's tough finding open receivers with Smith struggling at tackle, anyway.

First-round pick Michael Brockers and free-agent addition Kendall Langford upgrade the run defense, but life as an every-down defensive end is tough for Robert Quinn. The veteran outside linebackers signed as stopgaps represent only a minor upgrade from last season. Off-field issues dog Jenkins and the defense fails to meet expectations. Critics conveniently blame Gregg Williams' suspension, but the problems are more complex than that.

The Rams head into the offseason with another high draft choice, one they'll almost certainly have to invest in a playmaker of some sort.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the St. Louis Rams and why.

Jason Smith should be hitting his prime years as an offensive tackle for the Rams. There's a chance that will be the case, unlikely as it seems after three underwhelming seasons marked by injuries. The Rams reworked Smith's contract and will find out whether new line coach Paul Boudreau can help Smith, still only 26, fulfill more of his potential. Smith, limited to six games last season after suffering a concussion during a freak collision, will need better luck with injuries for that to happen.

It's instructive to recall the Rams' thinking when they made Smith the second player chosen in the 2009 draft. The feeling then was that Smith remained in the early stages of a transition from tight end to tackle, and that Eugene Monroe, selected eighth overall that year by Jacksonville, was more polished coming out of college.

"The way we look at it, he has played at a high level with only three years at the position," Billy Devaney, then the Rams' general manager, said of Smith at the time. "So you try to project a year or two down the road with that kind of development that we see, he’ll be that much better. If you take Monroe, he comes in and lines up on Sunday, if we're playing, at left tackle and plays. He's been there longer. Jason has been a right tackle and that’s what gives us flexibility. ... His production is good now and his potential is outstanding."

The Rams are envisioning more of a run-oriented offense this year. That could help Smith, their projected starter at right tackle, find his bearings. The schedule presents challenges, however. Smith opens the season on the road against Detroit and the Lions' franchise player, Cliff Avril. The Washington Redskins' Ryan Kerrigan is on the schedule in Week 2, followed by matchups against rookie first-round picks Shea McClellin (Chicago) and Bruce Irvin (Seattle). Green Bay's Clay Matthews is also on the schedule in the first seven games.

On Friday, we posted some basic but important questions about the trio of NFC North rookie minicamps held over the weekend. I thought they would help us keep focused amid discussion about dozens of players who probably won't make an NFL team, let alone make an impact on the 2012 season.

Below, I've addressed the questions with updated information culled from a variety of sources. Links are provided when appropriate. In one case, I offered a rarely-seen "bonus" section. Don't say I never do anything for you.

Chicago Bears: What is the conditioning level of receiver Alshon Jeffery?

By all accounts, Jeffery was having a nice opening practice Friday -- "picking peanuts off some guys' heads," according to offensive coordinator Mike Tice -- before leaving with leg cramps.

Cramps are not unusual at rookie camps, where nerves and a lack of familiarity often lead to inadequate hydration and/or eating. Jeffery's pre-draft questions about work ethic and conditioning add a level to this particular departure, but he returned for the weekend practices without incident.

"Most of the guys are a little sore right now, but we see a guy with great hands, a big target that will only get better," Bears coach Lovie Smith said. "He should be in the mix to help us win games this year."

The Bears' initial plan is for Jeffery to learn the "Z" slot position, but it's not out of the question that he could eventually pair with Brandon Marshall as an outside receiver with Devin Hester moving inside.

Bonus: Here's what Tice had to say about criticism of the Bears' depth at tackle, a position they did not draft to: "If we felt that tackle was a dire need for us, I'm sure they would have answered the bell on draft day. With the change in scheme, the change in personality and an offseason and getting some guys healthy, I think we'll make a big jump in the offensive line. It takes time for young guys to play good in all areas. And we have a couple young guys who have played good football in half the scheme, and they need to step it up in the other half. Plus, we have some guys who got hurt, and we need to get those guys back."

Detroit Lions: How many positions is offensive lineman Riley Reiff playing? Also, how much work, if any, is receiver Ryan Broyles doing?

The Lions rotated Reiff between left tackle and right tackle on a per-practice basis, but there were no reports of him seeing time at guard. That doesn't mean he won't eventually get some work there as a possible competitor for right guard Stephen Peterman, but on his first weekend the Lions limited him to the two positions he figured to be most familiar with.

Lions coach Jim Schwartz clearly subscribes to the "less is more" philosophy on drawing conclusions in rookie camp. But here were his early impressions of the Lions' first-round draft choice: "You can tell as much of what we did here today about him as we could outside [of practice.] I mean walkthroughs, meetings and things like that. You can tell that he's an experienced, smart, confident player and he’s going to do well for us."

Broyles, on the other hand, observed but did not participate in any of the practices as he continues to recover from a November knee injury. The question now becomes whether he will be cleared in time for training camp or whether he will open camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list.

Schwartz wouldn't commit to a timetable on when Broyles will be able to practice or play a game but said: "[H]e's on a good path. He's had a good rehab so far. He showed it in his pro day and he's shown it here. It depends on what happens between now and then."

Green Bay Packers: How rough does Nick Perry look at outside linebacker? Also, are there any clues that B.J. Coleman will be able to challenge Graham Harrell for the No. 2 quarterback job?

The biggest news on Perry is that the Packers started him off as the left outside linebacker, which is where Clay Matthews played the past two seasons. Coach Mike McCarthy wouldn't say whether that meant Matthews will move to the rights side or if Perry will initially be slotted as a backup. But as Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette pointed out, most 3-4 teams prefer their biggest outside linebacker to work on the left side to stand up against opponents who are generally right-handed running teams.

Meanwhile, Coleman demonstrated notable arm strength in comparison to fellow quarterback Nick Hill, according to Rob Demovsky of the Press-Gazette. That's a good start. Whether he can challenge Harrell depends on how quickly he can learn the Packers' offense, and according to McCarthy, how long it takes him to adapt to an entirely new set of footwork techniques required at the professional level.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- In recent years, I would arrive at the NFL owners meetings in late March to annual questions on the Green Bay Packers' apparent abdication of the free-agent market. What are the Packers up to? That's what officials from other teams wanted to know. My answer was always the same: This isn't Packers season. That starts at the end of April.

This year? Not so much. Last week, center Jeff Saturday became the first unrestricted free agent to sign with the Packers in three years. The team also hosted defensive lineman Anthony Hargrove on a visit, and reports suggest defensive end Dave Tollefson and offensive tackle Demetrius Bell could also visit in the next week or so.

Already, it's the most active stretch of free agency for general manager Ted Thompson since 2006, when he signed defensive lineman Ryan Pickett and cornerback Charles Woodson. Indeed, as of Tuesday, Pickett, Woodson and Saturday remain the only players on the Packers' roster to have been acquired as an unrestricted free agent.

What has gotten into Thompson? Did the Packers' early exit from the 2011 playoffs spur a change of philosophy? Did somebody sprinkle the Lambeau Field coffee with extra caffeine?

Not if you ask Thompson, as a few of us did this week here at the NFL owners meetings. Thompson smiled and said: "I know you guys don't believe me. But we're always active in free agency."

Right. And I hit the treadmill every day, too.

Thompson added: "There have been years, a couple years in a row when we haven't actually signed anybody. It doesn't mean that we weren't active, pursuing leads, trying to understand the market, doing all of that. … Sometimes the market runs away from you, and you keep your hands in your pocket."

In all seriousness, it's not as if the Packers have stayed pat as a rule over the years. In 2009, for example, they expressed interest in defensive lineman Chris Canty but wouldn't make him an offer before he visited Green Bay, as he demanded.

Still, it's hard to look at what's happened so far in 2012 and write it off as random. Given his druthers, I think we know Thompson would prefer to remain in the background in March. So I see at least a couple issues at play here.

First, and most important, the Packers have encountered what I could call "Ted Thompson's Imperfect Storm." The Packers have specific needs at important positions where depth is thin and the draft provides an untenable risk. That was certainly the case at center, a position that might rank second to quarterback in order of importance in the Packers' offense and had no obvious heir on the roster.

Thompson acknowledged that teams have found immediate starters at center in the draft, but that player almost certainly couldn't shoulder the play-calling responsibilities of a Packers center even if he was physically ready to compete with NFL-caliber defensive linemen.

In his typical understated way, Thompson said: "I think it's an important position. The whole makeup on our offense. We asked [former center Scott Wells] to do a lot. We'll ask Jeff to do a lot. … I do think in free agency you're able to target more specific things as opposed to the draft when we try to take the best player."

The same could be said of the Packers' clear focus on pass-rushers. The Packers have a clear need for a right end and an outside linebacker to play opposite Clay Matthews. But in the current pass-happy era of the NFL, you better believe that the other 31 teams are deeply in need of pass-rushers as well. Now more than ever, the Packers would be foolish to close the door on every possible avenue for upgrades.

Second, I wonder if the Packers weren't at least cautioned by their experience with former defensive end Cullen Jenkins last year. Their anticipated succession plan, 2010 second-round draft pick Mike Neal, suffered a training camp knee injury and made little impact. It's difficult to project injuries, even for a player like Neal who has endured more than his share. But the Packers' diminished pass rush made a huge impact on their defensive struggles, thus highlighting the risk in counting on unestablished players at key positions.

Every team would love to follow the Packers' style from recent years, relying almost entirely on drafted players to win the Super Bowl. But you wonder if they were the exception to the rule. Even the best teams need help from the outside at least occasionally, and credit Thompson for acting on that -- even if he did it with his nose pinched and his eyes closed tightly.

Yes, Thompson admitted that he wasn't at Lambeau Field when Saturday arrived last week for his recruiting visit. He was at Iowa's pro day instead. He called Saturday to make sure there would be no hard feelings about his absence and said it was more critical for coach Mike McCarthy to handle the visit. To quote one of my favorite movies: Small moves, Ellie. Small moves.

By this point, the Green Bay Packers' quiet approach to veteran free agency should surprise no one. We've had endless debates about the pros and cons of their philosophy, but in the spring of 2012, I think we should all have a clear understanding of the "why."

In the next 12 months or so, the Packers will face contract negotiations with three of the best players at their positions in the NFL. Receiver Greg Jennings is entering the final year of his contract, linebacker Clay Matthews has two years remaining on his rookie deal, and there is a general understanding that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has outperformed the contract he signed shortly after taking over as the Packers' starter in 2008.

Free agent activity this week has offered us a peak at the numbers the Packers likely will hear, and to no surprise, they're going to be high. Let's start with Jennings, who has to be smiling ear-to-ear after watching the money thrown at receivers this week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers set the market for the top receiver available by signing Vincent Jackson to a five-year, $55 million deal with $26 million guaranteed. If Jennings were to hit the open market in 2013, he could reasonably expect Jackson's deal to serve as a baseline for negotiations.

Both players have been fortunate enough to play with elite quarterbacks and in steady passing offenses. As the chart shows, Jennings is a bit younger than Jackson, and has produced at a much higher rate over his career.

We'll set aside the $132 million contract of Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, as well as the $120 million deal Larry Fitzgerald signed last summer with the Arizona Cardinals. Both deals were inflated by unique forms of leverage that Jennings won't have access to.

Rodgers, meanwhile, is the reigning MVP and could expect a contract that comes close to the $18 million annual average the game's top quarterbacks -- including Tom Brady and Peyton Manning -- have received in recent deals. Ongoing negotiations between Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints could raise that level, but Brees has the leverage of an expired contract.

Regardless, you can do the math. Rodgers said in November that he wants his next contract to be his last. If the Packers want to sign Rodgers to a new, say, seven-year deal, the total value could surpass $125 million. Nothing crazy there when it comes to quarterback salaries.

Of the three, Matthews might be the most difficult situation to assess. His sack total fell from 13.5 in 2010 to six in 2011, but it's fair to consider him one of the NFL's better pass-rushers. The top available pass-rusher on the market this spring is defensive end/linebacker Mario Williams, who has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Buffalo Bills for $100 million over six years, with $50 million guaranteed.

So we can be conservative and suggest that the combined contracts of Jennings, Rodgers and Matthews could surpass $200 million. That should give you 200 million reasons why the Packers are laying low, at least at the moment.

Our friends at Football Outsiders have put together a series previewing each NFL team's offseason needs, using their unique statistical analysis to support their assertions. Football Outsiders' work requires an Insiders subscription to view in full, a contradiction that always elicits a giggle from NFC East colleague Dan Graziano. But I'm authorized to provide you a snippet from each of our teams. Herewith:

Chicago Bears: Most everyone has the Bears pegged to pursue wide receivers in free agency and/or the draft, and Outsiders doesn't discount that possibility. But based on its analysis of the Bears' 2011 season, offensive tackle should be the Bears' top priority. Left tackle J'Marcus Webb allowed 10 sacks and was "among the worst [left tackles] in the league." The Bears' running game, meanwhile, was stuffed for a loss or no gain on 24.1 percent of its runs, a "catastrophic" figure blamed mostly on poor run blocking.

Detroit Lions: Like the Bears, Outsiders thinks the Lions need to upgrade their offensive line more than anything else. Based on Outsiders statistics, the Lions had the second-worst run-blocking offensive line in the NFL in 2011. Center Dominic Raiola and right guard Stephen Peterman were particularly to blame. Outsiders' analysis suggested that running backs Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith actually had above-average seasons based on the yardage available to them.

Green Bay Packers: We all know the Packers need more pass rush; Outsiders ranked them last in the NFL in its adjusted sack rate (ASR) in 2011. Outsiders' analysis suggests the pass rush would improve if the Packers focus their upgrade efforts along the defensive line, giving it better push up front but also opening up lanes for linebacker Clay Matthews.

Minnesota Vikings: Perhaps "the worst secondary in the league." That should tell you all you need to know. Here's one of many sobering statistics from 2011: Cornerback Cedric Griffin allowed an average of 10.5 yards on every pass thrown in his direction, and teams had a 38 percent success rate against him. Both totals were among the bottom five of all cornerbacks in Outsiders' statistical study.

The question has been asked before. Is Aaron Rodgers the next Peyton Manning? As it turns out, Rodgers isn't just making a run at Manning's place in NFL history. He also wants a piece of Manning's commercial success.

A third version of Rodgers' "Discount Double Check" commercials will appear this weekend. Formally known as "State of Imitation," the ads feature Rodgers as the straight man, first against actors and then Packers defensive lineman B.J. Raji. The latest version, embedded below, includes linebacker Clay Matthews.

Speaking this week on his ESPN 540 radio show, Rodgers said hosting "Saturday Night Live" -- which Manning did in 2007 -- is a possibility as well.

"I like to be selective," Rodgers said. "My time is important to me. These are fun to do but it is like a work day. You're going over lines, you're changing outfits, you're rehearsing. It's not like you’re just kind of hanging out. You want it to be good. I want it to be good. I want it to come out funny and to make sure that I'm representing myself well and the company I'm working with. So I want it to be really good.

"That being said, being compared to Peyton, that's a high compliment because I think he’s hilarious and I think his ads have been incredible. 'Saturday Night Live,' which has shown some interest in me doing it, his performance was incredible I thought on 'Saturday Night Live.' Tough to match."

Related: "State of Imitation 1" and "State of Imitation 2."

(Note: I hope everyone is good with pushing forward on our football discussion even as the Green Bay Packers are mourning the death of a family member. I considered holding off out of respect for those impacted by the death of Michael Philbin, but in the end I think we can be respectful while also providing an outlet for those who want to read about Sunday's divisional playoff game.)

Fear is a strong word. I don't think the Green Bay Packers fear the consequences of their historically porous pass defense. They won 15 games with it during the regular season, after all. I'm not even sure they're worried about it. They discovered and have implemented the antidote throughout the past four months.

But if you're someone who likes to conceive the worst-case scenario, you don't have to think too hard.

The Packers tripped only once this season despite giving up an NFL-record 4,796 passing yards, mostly because they intercepted a league-leading 31 passes. In the playoffs, of course, the quarterbacks are better and less prone to mistakes. The Packers could face a Pro Bowl quarterback at every step between now and Super Bowl XLVI.

The bottom line: If an elite quarterback gashes them for yards but avoids the interceptions, he could knock the Packers out of the playoffs.

To be sure, there have been all kinds of attempts to poke holes in the Packers' near-perfect season. To me, this is the one instance with merit. The Packers' only loss this season came when Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Kyle Orton threw for 299 yards with no interceptions -- the only game this season the Packers didn't create at least one turnover.

First up this postseason will be the New York Giants' Eli Manning, who fell 67 yards shy of a 5,000-yard season and threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 13 loss to the Packers. The final score was 38-35, and the Packers' scoring included linebacker Clay Matthews' return of an interception for a touchdown.

With the exception of a few pointed statements from cornerback Charles Woodson, the issue has mostly bubbled below the surface. But speaking late in the regular season, Woodson reiterated his concerns about the defense's aptitude for postseason football.

"Defensively we still have some problems," Woodson said after the Packers allowed 441 total yards in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears. "We just give up way too many things on a consistent basis, so we have a long way to go. … Just not playing good football at times. We've been consistently inconsistent throughout the season. It's on each man to get it done. Moving forward we have a great opportunity. … Everybody on this team, to the man, has to look within himself and just get the job done."

As the chart shows, the Packers allowed a 300-yard passer in nearly half their games this season. They intercepted the Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton three times to spoil a 432-yard day, for example, and held off the San Diego Chargers mostly because they intercepted Philip Rivers a career-high three times and returned two for touchdowns.

Manning, meanwhile, compiled eight 300-yard games during the regular season; the Giants were 4-4 in those games. He threw the seventh-most interceptions in the NFL, 16, but has thrown only one interception in the Giants' past three games.

Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers has addressed the issue on almost a weekly basis this season. Speaking to Wisconsin reporters last week, Capers admitted that "we don't like" the yardage totals but added: "We've been able to win 15 games, and the reason for that, with our defensive stats the way they are, is the fact that we ended up No. 1 in the league in takeaways and No. 1 in the league in interceptions. That's something we obviously place a high priority on."

What has been the issue? As the second chart shows, the Packers' standard pass rush -- four or less rushers -- hasn't been nearly as effective as it was last season. They have given up an NFL-high 8.5 yards per attempt on those plays and managed only 11 sacks.

As a result, Capers has dramatically increased his blitz totals from last season. He elevated from a blitz on 32.8 percent of opponents' dropbacks in 2010 to 45.7 percent in 2011, the fourth-most in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The only NFL team that effected a bigger blitz uptick this season was the Houston Texans, who changed defensive coordinators in the offseason.

I included the blitz percentages for each of the 300-yard games in the first chart; they blitzed 51.6 percent of the time on Orton's 299-yard day.

The blitz is the ultimate risk-reward proposition, and it brought the Packers 18 of their 29 sacks and limited opponents to eight touchdown passes. (The Packers actually had more interceptions out of their standard rush, possibly a reflection of non-elite quarterbacks forcing the ball into coverage.)

Given his druthers, I doubt Capers wants to blitz as much as he has. In his session with reporters, he pointed to the Packers' Week 12 game against the Detroit Lions as "far more like [the way] we want to play." In that 27-15 victory, the Packers blitzed a season-low 22.4 percent of the time and limited Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford to 276 yards. None of Stafford's 32 completions went for longer than 23 yards.

So is the answer to pull back on the blitz Sunday against the Giants? In that Lions game, I'm guessing Capers considered it a higher priority to cover Detroit's slew of pass-catchers than to pressure Stafford. The Giants have a similar situation, especially now that receiver Mario Manningham is healthy and available to complement Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. Perhaps, perhaps.

To be clear, this is not meant to ring alarm bells. I haven't been impressed with most of the attempts to poke holes in the Packers' success this season. 15-1 is 15-1, and it's clear the Packers know how to win. They are nine-point favorites in this game for good reason. All I want to do is note that a season-long issue was never resolved. The Packers have to hope it won't bite them now.

Police in Oshkosh, Wis., have confirmed the terrible news we learned Monday night: The body pulled from an icy river was in fact the son of Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. Michael Philbin was 21.

There isn't much I can add to Monday night's post. This is the cruelest of tragedies.

Packers players are off Tuesday and the team has no scheduled media availability. But in an appearance Wednesday morning on ESPN Radio , linebacker Clay Matthews said the team will dedicate Sunday's divisional playoff game against the New York Giants to the Philbins.

"The Packer organization is truly a family-first environment," Matthews said. "We feel for the Philbin family. I think it goes without saying that this game, and how we approach it, and how we play, will definitely be dedicated to him. Hopefully we do it the right way."

As Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette noted, it's hard to imagine Philbin coaching this week. Coach Mike McCarthy said Monday the team had a contingency plan ready if that was the case. In a statement, general manager Ted Thompson asked the public to respect the Philbin family's privacy and added: "All of us in the Packers family share in their grief."

» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending.

Final Power Ranking: 1
Preseason Power Ranking: 1

Biggest surprise: Wide receiver Jordy Nelson had a standout performance in Super Bowl XLV, but few were expecting the kind of breakthrough season he produced in 2011. On a team stocked with elite talent from receiver Greg Jennings to tight end Jermichael Finley, it was Nelson who led the Packers with 68 receptions for 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns. Only two players in the league, Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots and Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions, caught more touchdowns. Nelson continually got behind defenses who either misjudged his speed or were drawn elsewhere. He deftly handled a midseason discussion about race and his position, and ultimately proved to be one of the league's top downfield threats. He averaged 18.6 yards per catch, and his touchdowns included distances of 93, 84, 58, 55, 50 and 40 yards.

Biggest disappointment: There aren't many options for a team that won 15 regular season games, the sixth time that's happened in NFL history. But few people in the Packers organization were thrilled by the performance of the pass defense, which allowed an NFL-record 4,796 yards and pushed the Packers to the bottom of the NFL in total defense. (They ranked No. 5 in 2010.) It didn't cost them a game in 2011, partly because they mitigated the yardage total with a league-high 31 interceptions and partly because their offense was one of the league's best. The big concern, of course, is that a hot quarterback could capitalize in the playoffs and end the Packers' dreams for a repeat Super Bowl.

Biggest need: The Packers tried to piece together their right outside linebacker position this year with 2010 street free agent Erik Walden, second-year player Frank Zombo and reserve Brad Jones. Walden didn't make much of an impact as a pass rusher, managing three sacks in 16 games. Zombo was hurt most of the season and Jones was ineffective. Previously, we figured the Packers could skate by as long as All-Pro Clay Matthews was on the opposite side. But offensive attention shifted to Matthews this season, limiting him to six sacks, and no one picked up the slack. The Packers finished tied for No. 27 in the NFL in sacks (27) and it might be time to devote another high draft choice to the position to provide a pass-rushing alternative.

Team MVP: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the favorite to win the NFL MVP, making him a pretty decent candidate for the team award. In a year of obscene yardage totals from Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford, Rodgers was the league's most efficient and least mistake-prone quarterback. He set an NFL record with a 122.5 passer rating and became the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for at least 4,000 yards while also throwing six or less interceptions. It's true that the Packers' offense continued humming along when Rodgers sat out the regular season finale, but those who saw large chunks of his season know that he was operating on a never-before-seen plane for the first two-thirds of the season. Rodgers has perfected the art of the back-shoulder throw and helped deliver the phrase "throwing open" into the public NFL lexicon.

Penalty watch: We could devote an entire post to the milestones surpassed and records set for this team. Two that didn't get nearly enough attention: 14 turnovers and 76 penalties, both of which qualified as the lowest figures in a 16-game season in franchise history. Penalties don't always correlate with wins and losses. But viewed together, we can say with some confidence that the Packers didn't make many mistakes this season.

A few thoughts on as wild of a "meaningless" Week 17 game as you'll possibly see.

What it means: The Green Bay Packers improved to 15-1, becoming the sixth team in NFL history to win at least 15 regular-season games in one season, despite deactivating three of their most prominent players (quarterback Aaron Rodgers, cornerback Charles Woodson and linebacker Clay Matthews). They also used the game to experiment on offensive line combinations. Amazingly, the Packers were able to protect some key players while still riding momentum into the playoffs. The Lions missed a chance to lock up the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs, leaving their positioning at the mercy of the Atlanta Falcons. The Lions will be the No. 6 seed, and travel to the New Orleans Saints, if the Falcons defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons were leading 35-0 in the second quarter at last check. The Lions have now lost 20 consecutive games in the state of Wisconsin.

Air Supply: On a windy and snowy day at Lambeau Field, both starting quarterbacks set franchise records for passing yards in a game. Backup Matt Flynn made the most of his opportunity to start, throwing for 480 yards and six touchdowns, also a team record. The Lions' Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards, bringing their combined total to an even 1,000 in the game, and tied his team record with five touchdown passes. The Madden-like final statistics also included 244 receiving yards for Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, 116 for tight end Brandon Pettigrew and 162 for Packers receiver Jordy Nelson.

FlynnWatch: I'm not sure what else Flynn could have done to audition for a starting job elsewhere next season. The Packers used two different left tackles, Chad Clifton and Marshall Newhouse, and didn't have receiver Greg Jennings or running back James Starks for this game. But Flynn smartly used the remaining talent the Packers surrounded him with, most notably Nelson (three touchdowns). Perhaps most impressive to teams considering him in free agency this spring, Flynn also led the Packers to 14 points in the final eight minutes, 18 seconds of the game, playing as if he was the quarterback fighting to secure a fifth seed.

Official grumbling: Kudos to Lions center Dominic Raiola, who stepped in and calmed down Lions coach Jim Schwartz (a little bit) in the second quarter after a series of poor calls robbed the Lions of both challenge opportunities before halftime. There is little doubt that the Lions were on the short end of both calls that led to challenges, a fumble that was reversed on tight end Tony Scheffler and a fumble by kick returner Stefan Logan. That left the Lions unable to challenge what should have been a touchdown pass to receiver Titus Young, whom officials ruled didn't get both feet down in the end zone when he in fact did. But in the end, it's fair to say the Lions had plenty of opportunities to win the game. I hope no one leaves the Lions locker room blaming those calls for the loss. The Lions had a 41-38 lead with 2:44 remaining, and their defense couldn't slow down a watered-down Packers offense. That's on them. The Packers' winning drive included two third-down conversions, one of which came after defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh jumped offside.

What's next: We'll await the Lions' playoff seed and opponent for next weekend's wild-card game, to be determined later Sunday. The Packers will have a playoff bye week and host a divisional game the weekend of Jan. 14-15.

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Perfect sense: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the presumptive league MVP. He was pretty much a lock to be named the NFC's starter. Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson is tied for the NFL lead in touchdown receptions (15). He wasn't going to get snubbed. Neither was Minnesota Vikings defensive end Jared Allen, who leads the league with 18.5 sacks, nor Green Bay Packers cornerback Charles Woodson, who is tied for the league lead with seven interceptions. It was nice to see the league recognize some deserving NFC North players who had the potential to slip through the voting cracks. Bears tailback Matt Forte was leading the NFL in all-purpose yards when a knee injury sidelined him in Week 13. He obviously won't play but still deserved the honor. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman has had an outstanding season, as we have discussed, especially when matched up against Johnson. Tillman has only two interceptions, but I was glad to see voters didn't overlook him. Packers center Scott Wells is anonymous on a league level, but the Packers feel he has had his best season. And although Packers linebacker Clay Matthews has only six sacks, voters correctly recognized the all-around impact he's made this season. Finally, Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh didn't make the team but was named an alternate. That was the right decision. Independent of the headlines he has made this season, Suh hasn't made a Pro Bowl-level impact.

Made it on rep: The Bears defense slipped this season, especially in the past month, but ultimately that didn't impact the candidacies of middle linebacker Brian Urlacher or weak-side linebacker Lance Briggs. In the end, Briggs has been named to every Pro Bowl since 2005 and Urlacher has made two consecutive Pro Bowl teams after several years of injury-related absences. I would say both players were on the cusp. For sure, they made a limited number of impact plays this season. Urlacher has three interceptions and neither a sack nor a forced fumble. Briggs has two forced fumbles, one interception and no sacks. Meanwhile, I wonder if Packers defensive lineman B.J. Raji got makeup recognition for his strong 2010 performance. Raji has three sacks, less than half of his total last year, and is supposed to be a key pass rusher on a defense that hasn't gotten nearly enough pressure this year. Raji has had a credible, solid season. But was it Pro Bowl worthy? I'm not sure.

Got robbed: I wondered if voters would side with New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning over Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, and in the end they did. Stafford is an alternate behind the Rodgers, Manning and the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees. Stafford could still be named to the Pro Bowl as an injury or Super Bowl replacement, presuming he is not playing in the Super Bowl himself, but he has established himself as one of the NFL's top quarterbacks. He has a better passer rating, a higher completion percentage, 10 more touchdown passes and two less interceptions than Manning this season. The only people that would have complained had the reverse occurred -- Stafford elected and Manning named an alternate -- are hard-core Giants fans.

Click here for the complete 2012 Pro Bowl roster.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- It's decision time for Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy. I'm guessing he's already made it, even if he was vague on the details in the aftermath of Sunday night's 35-21 victory over the Chicago Bears.

Will McCarthy rest and protect his starters in the Packers' otherwise meaningless Week 17 game against the Detroit Lions? Or will he keep full throttle on a record-breaking season in hopes of entering the playoffs on the highest note possible?

McCarthy is already on record this season as saying the Packers "won't play scared" in their remaining regular-season games, and indications were that he was prepared to push for a perfect 16-0 season if the opportunity availed. But that possibility ended Dec. 18 in Kansas City, and the Packers' victory Sunday night locked up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

The Lions, on he other hand, will have substantial incentive next weekend -- knowing that a victory would aid their chances for the No. 5 seed in the playoffs and lead to a better wild-card matchup than if they were the sixth seed. A Lions victory, in fact, could be the difference between a trip to the Superdome to play the New Orleans Saints (as the No. 6 seed) or playing at the Dallas Cowboys or New York Giants (as the No. 5 seed).

McCarthy continued his tough talk Sunday night, but for the first time offered a caveat that suggests he won't do anything rash, especially with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, to secure a victory over the Lions.

"I'm not going to stand here and tell you we're going to give away an opportunity to win a game," McCarthy said. "We're going to play to win the game next week. I'm not real excited about a division opponent coming in here and thinking we're not going to do everything we can to get to 15-1. But health is an issue for us and I think that's stating the obvious."

Added Rodgers: "I think we need to get healthy. That's the most important thing. This was a good win for us to get back on the right track [and] get the No. 1 seed obviously. Now that we have the top seed locked up, I think the priorities may shift a little."

It stands to reason that the Packers won't play any of the starters who have been nursing injuries or haven't played in recent weeks. That list includes running back James Starks, who left Sunday night's game again because of his troublesome sprained ankle, receiver Greg Jennings (knee) and perhaps right tackle Bryan Bulaga (knee).

But the real question is whether McCarthy will play healthy stars such Rodgers, cornerback Charles Woodson and linebacker Clay Matthews. The Thanksgiving Day game between the teams was a chippy affair that led to a pair of ejections, most notably for Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, and it would be understandable if McCarthy wanted to hide the women and children from a motivated Lions team.

When I asked him if healthy starters would play against the Lions, McCarthy said: "I don't have an answer for you. I need to see how the players get in here tomorrow and it usually takes until Tuesday to really get a handle on a projection of who's available and who is at risk and who isn't."

Rodgers and Woodson, two veterans McCarthy often leans on for advice, both deferred to the coach on this issue. Woodson said "I anticipate playing," a natural response for any player, but Rodgers offered a more nuanced answer that suggested he wouldn't be surprised to have a lighter load next week or potentially sit out altogether.

"I think that's going to be up to Mike depending on how he wants to play it," Rodgers said. "We'll fall in line. I think as a close friend of [backup Matt Flynn], I wouldn't mind seeing him get an opportunity to play a little bit. But I'll definitely do whatever Mike says."

Asked if he hoped to play for a chance to match Tom Brady's NFL record of 50 touchdown passes in a season, Rodgers said: "I think that's safe." He has 45 this season after throwing a career-high five against the Bears.

With all due respect to the rest of the Packers' roster, Rodgers is the central figure in this debate. He is the one player to whom an injury would absolutely and unequivocally end the Packers' Super Bowl hopes. A patchwork offensive line kept him pretty clean Sunday night -- he wasn't sacked and was hit once -- but we all know how active the Lions' defensive line can be.

I get how abhorrent the idea of pulling back might sound to McCarthy and perhaps others in the Packers organization. And I think I understand the value of entering the playoffs on a high note. The Packers did just that last season, beating a Bears team in Week 17 that played to win despite having its playoff seed locked up, and rode the momentum to Super Bowl XLV.

The Packers had no choice then. They do now. If their only goal is to win the Super Bowl, it's hard to envision how beating the Lions at all costs in Week 17 is going to help. And it would almost certainly take four quarters of participation from starters to secure, knowing the Lions have come back from deficits of 13 points or more four times this season.

"There's something to be said for finishing the season well," Rodgers said. "The Bears tried to keep us out of the playoffs last year, last game of the year. It would be nice to finish out the season the way we started, with a strong showing in a home game.

"That being said, you have to take into account the health of your football team. We have some guys banged up. We'll see what Mike says this week."

I'm not sure if McCarthy will announce it publicly, but I have a hard time believing he won't pull back. Maybe it will help a division rival earn a better seed. That's not the Packers concern right now. Getting to the playoffs unscathed should be their only priority.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- A few thoughts from a pretty quick first half at Lambeau Field:

• The Chicago Bears are doing what most teams would like to do against the Green Bay Packers: Control the ball via the running game and keep the Packers offense off the field. The Bears have rushed for 126 yards, including 89 by Kahlil Bell, and have 207 total yards. But they haven't followed through on the second part of that approach. They have only one field goal to show for their efforts because Robbie Gould missed a 49-yarder and Packers linebacker Clay Matthews stopped another drive with an interception.
• I don't think anyone could argue with the performance of Bears quarterback Josh McCown, who has completed 6 of 9 passes. The Bears have run 24 times and are obviously going to limit McCown's exposure, but I wouldn't even blame him for the interception. Matthews sniffed out a screen and made a great individual play.
• Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers broke the Packers' single-season record for passing yards in a season during the second quarter. Lynn Dickey held the record previously at 4,458 yards. Rodgers appeared to injure his right hand in a collision with Bears defensive end Julius Peppers, but he has completed 14 of 19 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns.
• Did the Lambeau Field crowd boo tight end Jermichael Finley when he was unable to come up with a short catch on the right sideline? Or were they booing the officials' call? I wasn't sure. Finley caught three passes in the Packers' opening drive, including a 2-yard touchdown, but he has also missed on a couple of catchable passes as well.
• I'm not sure why the Bears are using Devin Hester as a returner. His sprained ankle is obviously limiting him and on a few plays he seemed unable to run laterally. That's a recipe for further injury.
• Although the Packers have both starting inside linebackers back on the field, it's worth noting the Packers' run defense is not at full strength. Ryan Pickett still has not been cleared to play after suffering a concussion two weeks ago.