NFL Nation: DeAngelo Williams

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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Panthers in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): With the Saints dealing with turmoil and the Falcons facing enormous pressure, it’s at least possible the two teams that have dominated the NFC South in recent years won’t win it in 2012. The Panthers are the next logical choice, and there are all sorts of reasons for optimism.

Coach Ron Rivera’s entering his second season and so is quarterback Cam Newton, who was the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year despite not having an offseason with his coaches and their playbook. Newton should only continue to improve, a scary thought for a guy who lit up defenses with his arm and his legs last season. He has Steve Smith still going strong, a backfield that includes Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams and has added fullback/tailback Mike Tolbert.

There are far fewer questions about Carolina’s offense now than there were a year ago. It’s obvious the Panthers are going to score some points on offense. But the defense will tell the story. If this team is going to make the playoffs, Jon Beason and Ron Edwards must make strong comebacks from injuries and rookie linebacker Luke Kuechly must make an instant impact.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): Anything less than last year’s 6-10 record would be a huge disappointment. Although I don’t think it’s likely, it’s at least possible that Newton will take a step back. If he does, then maybe Smith no longer looks so young and maybe that loaded backfield doesn’t look so good. Then, there’s the matter of a defense that was so bad a year ago. A lot of people seem to assume the return of Beason and Edwards and the addition of Kuechly will solve everything. But maybe Beason and Edwards aren’t the players they were before their injuries and maybe Kuechly doesn’t live up to his billing.

If all that happens, then the Panthers really aren’t going to be any different than they were the last couple of seasons.
Dennis of Michigan asked during Tuesday's SportsNation chat if Chicago Bears tailback Matt Forte had a right to be upset with the state of his long-term contract negotiations. My response remained the same as it has been for some time: It's hard to make a judgment without knowing the terms that have been exchanged. In full:
Forte
Forte
What we don't know is the exact value of what the Bears have offered, and what he's turned down. Has there been no agreement because the Bears haven't made him a serious offer? Or is it because he is seeking to be one of the top 2-3 highest-paid running backs in the game? We don't know that. I don't think Forte should be mad that the Bears have spent money on his backup unless they aren't offering him a fair deal. A fair deal, to me, would be something north of what the Seahawks paid Marshawn Lynch.

We might not know those terms, but ESPN analyst Andrew Brandt offers a glimpse into what would be a fair agreement based on current precedent and the state of the market. In his latest ESPN.com column, Brandt suggests there is a deal to be made if both sides agree to use the structure of a five-year, $43 million deal that DeAngelo Williams signed last summer with the Carolina Panthers. That deal includes $21 million in guarantees; Lynch received $18 million guaranteed over a four-year extension.

So using Brandt's analysis, we can say that Forte has a right to be upset if the Bears have come in south of Williams/Lynch money. But if he has rejected that deal, or something slightly higher, then it's possible he has overvalued himself in the market. As Brandt notes, the franchise tag the Bears used on Forte will make it difficult for him to achieve an elite-level running back contract like the one the Minnesota Vikings signed Adrian Peterson to last summer. That deal included $36 million in guarantees over seven years. Stay tuned.

NFC South free-agency assessment

March, 29, 2012
Mar 29
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Atlanta Falcons

Key additions: LB Lofa Tatupu, G Vince Manuwai

Key losses: LB Curtis Lofton, WR/KR Eric Weems

Keeping their own: Much to the chagrin of their fans, the Falcons chose not to pursue defensive end Mario Williams or any other big-name free agent. Instead, they focused hard on keeping their own guys. That started before the season ended with tight end Tony Gonzalez re-signing and continued into free agency as the Falcons made it a point to lock up guys like receiver Harry Douglas, defensive end John Abraham and running back Jason Snelling. They also protected cornerback Brent Grimes with the franchise tag.

The only loss that really hurt was Lofton. The Falcons liked him, but new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan didn’t view him as a three-down player. The Falcons still made an effort to keep Lofton, but weren’t willing to pay big money. They brought in the veteran Tatupu, who could be a short-term answer. But there’s a hope within the organization that second-year pro Akeem Dent can step forward and win the job immediately because he’s the guy that’s going to end up there for the long term.

What’s next: Don’t completely rule out the addition of a minor or mid-level free agent or two, but the Falcons are focusing mainly on the draft. Even with Abraham back, they’re still looking to improve their pass rush and defensive ends could be in play. But the Falcons also could add a defensive tackle because Jonathan Babineaux and Peria Jerry are coming off sub-par seasons. Some depth in the secondary and a kick returner also are possible targets.

Key additions: RB/FB Mike Tolbert, G Mike Pollak

Key losses: G Travelle Wharton

The splash came last year: The Panthers haven’t been very active in free agency. That’s largely because they made their big moves coming out of the lockout last year. They signed defensive end Charles Johnson, running back DeAngelo Williams, linebacker Jon Beason, defensive tackle Ron Edwards and linebacker Thomas Davis to huge deals, and that’s why they had very little salary-cap room to work with this year.

But the Panthers didn’t really reap the rewards of some of those signings because Beason, Davis and Edwards all suffered early injuries. That took a toll on the defense. But all three of those guys are back and healthy and that should improve the defense immediately. Carolina developed an explosive offense last season and a strong defense could turn the Panthers into playoff contenders.

What’s next: The Panthers have very little cap room and don’t figure to make many more moves in free agency. They’re focused in on the draft and there needs have been narrowed. They’re likely to address cornerback and defensive tackle early in the draft. But don’t be surprised if they take a linebacker somewhere in the first three or four rounds, and it’s even possible they could target one in the first or second. Davis is coming off his torn ACL and the Panthers don’t know if he’ll be anything close to what he was before the injuries.

New Orleans Saints

Key additions: LB Curtis Lofton, DT Brodrick Bunkley, G Ben Grubbs

Key losses: G Carl Nicks, CB Tracy Porter

Miracle workers: Faced with an extremely tight salary-cap situation and some bizarre off-field events, it’s somewhat amazing the Saints were able to keep as much as they did. They didn’t want to lose Nicks, who might be the best guard in the league and is in his prime. But that’s the price they had to pay to make sure they kept quarterback Drew Brees and receiver Marques Colston, as well as adding players like Lofton, Grubbs and Bunkley.

The Brees situation remains complicated. He's still carrying the franchise tag. The Saints need to get him signed to a long-term deal quickly. Even more than ever, the Saints need Brees’ leadership abilities. They need him signed and happy before their offseason program starts April 16.

What’s next: With the possibility of multiple defensive players facing possible suspensions as a result of the bounty program, the Saints still could be looking to make significant moves. It will be hard to draft players that will make an instant impact because the Saints are without picks in the first two rounds. That means they might have to pull some more help out of free agency, even with limited cap space. They could use another pass-rusher to complement Will Smith. Even after adding Lofton and Bunkley, the Saints still could use depth at linebacker and defensive tackle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key additions: WR Vincent Jackson, G Carl Nicks, CB Eric Wright

Key losses: C Jeff Faine

Locking them up: Part of the reason the Bucs didn’t lose much of anything in free agency is because they’ve done a nice job of locking up some core players in recent years. They made it a point to make sure offensive linemen Donald Penn, Davin Joseph and Jeremy Zuttah never got close to leaving. Add Nicks to that group and the Bucs have a chance to have one of the league’s better offensive lines. As the season gets going, some other young players will be rewarded with contract extensions as they show they fit in coach Greg Schiano’s system.

What’s next: After making the initial splash, the Bucs said they’re done with free agency and are focused on the draft. That’s largely true, although the team is keeping a close eye on what remains on the market. This is a team that still is building and will still have needs after the draft. The Bucs have a big need at running back, where they have to find at least one player to complement LeGarrette Blount. The cornerback position could be an early target in the draft even after Ronde Barber decided to return for a 16th season. There also is some uncertainty about Aqib Talib's future. Even if he remains with the team, the Bucs need depth at the position. There also is uncertainty at linebacker and a need for depth at safety and tight end.
Been a couple of hours since the breakfast links, in which I pointed out that there is almost nothing being written anywhere in print or on the Internet about what the Super Bowl champion New York Giants are up to these days. And nothing's changed. Still nothing out there. No rumors, no reporting, nothing. But I have Giants fans (I think) who still come here to read this blog, and it's a disservice to them if we allow the inertia of the coverage to dictate our content.

To that end, here's a list of some of the most popular questions I'm getting on Twitter and in the mailbag from Giants fans the past couple of days, and my best attempts to answer them:

Why didn't the Giants make the deal the Eagles made with Houston to get DeMeco Ryans?

It's not a terrible question. The Giants need a middle linebacker too, and if someone as good as Ryans could be had for nothing more than a fourth-round pick and a swap of third-rounders, why didn't the Giants do it? There are several possible answers. First, the Eagles have a great deal more salary-cap room than the Giants do, and Ryans is making $5.9 million this year. Second, the Giants got by just fine without a top-of-the-line middle linebacker last year, and they likely believe they can do so again. If they re-sign Jonathan Goff, as they're expected to do, and he's healthy, they believe he's more than good enough at that spot given their other strengths on defense. They didn't have the same level of need that the Eagles did. And third, it's not as though there was a "For Sale" sign on Ryans. The first any of us heard that he was available was when we heard the Eagles had acquired him. Maybe the Eagles just asked the right question at the right time. Ryans was no longer useful to the Texas at his salary, since they'd switched to a 3-4 last year and were taking him off the field in passing downs. For the Eagles, he'll play all three downs and likely flourish in his original position. Maybe the Eagles just had a good idea no one else had.

Is there a chance Brandon Jacobs comes back?

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Brandon Jacobs
Debby Wong/US PresswireThe door is not closed on running back Brandon Jacobs returning to New York.
There is, until he signs elsewhere, that chance. The running back market is dormant, and there hasn't been a peep to indicate any team has had Jacobs in for a visit or expressed interest in him. That doesn't mean no one has, of course, but it indicates that the market isn't teeming with stellar offers for his services. If no team offers him more than whatever the Giants' final offer was, sure, he could come crawling back. But I still think he'll find a new home. The Carolina Panthers, who were already loaded at running back, signed Mike Tolbert, who was one of the best options on the market. So any team that was looking at Tolbert now has to look at lesser choices, and Jacobs is on that list.

Speaking of which, how about a trade for Jonathan Stewart, if Carolina has so many backs?

The Panthers moved quickly to dispel any notion that the Tolbert acquisition means they'll deal Stewart or DeAngelo Williams or even Mike Goodson. But that could be a leverage play to keep interested teams from thinking they're desperate. The fact is, they should see what they can get for Stewart, who's miscast there in a timeshare with Williams (and now Tolbert), and if I were the Giants I'd be extremely interested. Stewart is a big-time talent and would be a big upgrade over Jacobs in the Giants' backfield tandem with Ahmad Bradshaw.

What are they doing on the offensive line?

With Kareem McKenzie gone, the most glaring need is right tackle. But if Will Beatty is recovered from his eye problems, they could move either him or David Diehl to right tackle. They liked what Kevin Boothe gave them at left guard late last year, and they think highly of Mitch Petrus in that spot going forward, so they feel like they have some depth on the interior. I think they should get a tackle, be it in free agency or in the draft, because they're getting thin at those spots. But I don't think it had or has to be any of the bigger names out there. As they always do, the Giants will target someone they like for their team and system and then work to get him. And if they miss, they'll look for a solution on their own roster.

I'll keep you posted if anything else comes up. Hopefully this holds you over.
Maybe we should slow down a bit on the speculation that the Carolina Panthers could look to trade either DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart.

Tolbert
Tolbert
I’ve been guilty of it, and still think it’s a possibility the Panthers could trade one of their top two running backs. But the Panthers are trying to quickly get the word out that the signing of Mike Tolbert doesn’t mean Williams or Stewart is on the trading block.

In their release officially announcing the signing, the Panthers referred to Tolbert as a fullback, even though he was a running back with San Diego. Throughout the release, there are references to Tolbert as a fullback.

“Mike is a very versatile player who can do a lot of different things for us,” general manager Marty Hurney said. “He plays fullback, catches the ball well out of the backfield, plays running back, and is an outstanding special-teams player. It was a good fit, and gives us a chance to add another weapon on offense. We are excited about bringing him back to the Carolinas.”

Tolbert played in college at Coastal Carolina. More importantly, he’s got fullback size at 243 pounds. The Carolina offense, under coordinator Rob Chudzinski, makes unique use of fullbacks and H-backs. Chudzinski was an assistant in San Diego before coming to Carolina, and knows Tolbert's skill set well. So, it’s possible Tolbert really is ticketed for fullback.

Even if he is, he still gives the Panthers another possibility at tailback if anything happens to Williams or Stewart.
Peyton Manning joining the Denver Broncos might have a bigger impact than you realize on the NFC South.

Manning
That’s because all four NFC South teams play the Broncos next season. There’s little doubt the Broncos are about to get a lot better in the passing game and they already have a good defense. The move suddenly makes the Broncos and the entire AFC West better. With Denver and San Diego already pretty good and the possibility of Oakland and Kansas City improving, it’s pretty much a given that this isn’t going to be a repeat of 2010 when the NFC South was matched up with what was then a very weak NFC West. In that season, NFC South records got inflated (Tampa Bay went 10-6 and Atlanta was 13-3) in large part because they got some freebie wins against the NFC West.

We won’t know the schedule dates until April, but we already know which NFC South teams will play the Broncos and where those games will be. New Orleans and Tampa Bay will have to play in Denver. We know the Saints aren’t always good in outdoor stadiums and their pass-happy offense could be slowed even more if the game is late in the season and the weather is rough. It’s kind of a similar story for Tampa Bay if its game in Denver is late in the season because the Bucs historically have struggled in cold weather.

Perhaps the most intriguing matchup between Denver and the NFC South will come when John Fox returns to Bank of America Stadium to coach against his former team. By that time, Fox might not be the only familiar face returning to Charlotte. As I said before, I could see Fox trading with Carolina to get either DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart as a new toy for Manning out of the backfield. The Falcons also will play a home game against Denver and I’m sure new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is already thinking about some schemes to deal with Manning.
On the surface, Carolina’s signing of free-agent running back Mike Tolbert doesn’t seem like that big a deal.

The Panthers already have two good running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. It’s easy to look at this one and say, the Panthers simply are upgrading their No. 3 running back spot with Tolbert replacing Mike Goodson.

But I don’t think this is what that move is all about. Tolbert was brought in to be the No. 2 back behind either Williams or Stewart.

John Fox isn’t coaching the Panthers anymore, so the days of them collecting three or four backs and playing them extensively are over. Heck, there weren’t even enough carries to go around for Stewart and Williams last year, when coach Ron Rivera arrived and brought along offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski. Rivera and Chudzinski both previously worked in San Diego and that’s where Tolbert spent the past four seasons.

He had the best year of his career in 2010, the last year Chudzinski and Rivera were with the Chargers. Tolbert’s the kind of back that can give you about 150 carries and catch 40 or 50 passes out of the backfield. He also can play special-teams and is considered a good locker-room guy.

Williams and Stewart both were first-round picks by the Panthers and are highly regarded by the team. But it’s pretty obvious the Panthers just sent a message that either one could be available and other teams are going to start calling to inquire about trades.

It might be difficult to get a trade partner for Williams. The Panthers signed him to a huge contract last summer and that could scare off some suitors. But I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of the Panthers dealing Williams. Fox likes Williams a lot and could want a new toy for Peyton Manning in Denver. Some other team might be willing to take a shot on Williams.

But I think Stewart will be easier to trade (and Fox likes him too). He’s headed into the final year of his rookie contract and a team wouldn’t be taking on a huge contract. I’m thinking that between now and the draft, the Panthers will have added at least one draft pick and will be without either Stewart or Williams.

Around the NFC South

March, 18, 2012
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It appears we’ve hit a little lull after a fast start to free agency through most of the NFC South. But I’m not expecting it to last. I expect another wave of signings in the coming days. They might not be as big as the early ones, but several NFC South teams are hosting free-agent visitors this weekend and deals could be worked out soon. Let’s take a look at the headlines from around the division.

The New Orleans Saints had free-agent defensive tackle Broderick Bunkley in for a visit. Aubrayo Franklin and Shau Rogers are free agents and the Saints need to add a run-stuffing tackle to play next to Sedrick Ellis. The Saints also are looking at several linebackers. They don’t have much salary-cap room to work with, but could release players or restructure contracts to clear some room.

The Panthers hosted a visit with San Diego running back Mike Tolbert. Presumably, he would replace Mike Goodson as Carolina’s third back behind DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but it’s also possible the Panthers could look to trade one of the two if Tolbert is added. Stewart is more likely to be used as trade bait because Williams signed a huge contract last season and other teams aren’t likely to want to take on his deal. Coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski also are familiar with Tolbert from their time together in San Diego. There also have been some reports that Tampa Bay might have interest in Tolbert.

The Bucs still have issues in the front seven of their defense, particularly at linebacker. Although the team says it is focusing in on the April draft after an early splash in free agency, I still would be surprised if there is some movement at linebacker. The Bucs are monitoring the situation with Curtis Lofton and could get more involved if his price tag drops. The Bucs also could look for help at outside linebacker.
We've known the market for the NFL's top running backs for some time. The Minnesota Vikings guaranteed Adrian Peterson $36 million as part of a seven-year deal last summer, and the Tennessee Titans awarded Chris Johnson $30 million in a six-year extension.

Forte
Forte
Now we have a decent idea of how NFL teams value the next tier of running backs. The Seattle Seahawks signed Marshawn Lynch to a four-year deal Sunday night that includes $17 or $18 million in guarantees, and hours later the Houston Texans agreed on a five-year deal with Arian Foster. Terms of that deal haven't been reported yet, but it's reasonable to assume it falls between Lynch's deal and the five-year contract the Carolina Panthers gave DeAngelo Williams last summer; Williams' deal included $21 million in guarantees.

Why are we hashing through that information? Because it should help solidify the market for Matt Forte, whom the Chicago Bears made their franchise player last Friday.

If a dispute remains, it's this: What tier does Forte belong in? Did Forte's multi-faceted performance in 2011, in which he amassed 1,487 all-purpose yards in 12 games, make him one of the NFL's top backs? Or should he be paid closer to the range of Williams, Lynch and/or Foster?

The market has formed well enough for the sides to reach a long-term agreement, which would allow the Bears to rescind the franchise tag. But that's only if they can agree on Forte's standing among his peers. As always, your thoughts are welcome.

Final Word: NFC South

December, 23, 2011
12/23/11
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 16:

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Matt Ryan
Bob Donnan/US PresswireMatt Ryan has thrown seven touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the Falcons' past two games.
Ryan's on fire: The Falcons appear to be getting hot at the right time. In the past six quarters, against the Panthers and Jaguars, Atlanta has outscored opponents 65-14. Quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in those two games. Ryan also is playing for a spot in the record books. He is 42-18 in his career. Joe Flacco, who also entered the league in the 2008 draft, is 42-20. Each already has won more starts in his first four seasons than any quarterback since the Super Bowl era started in1966.

Monday Night Fever: The New Orleans Saints have all sorts of streaks going. They’ve clinched a playoff berth for the third straight season. They’ve won at least 11 games in each of the past three seasons. They’re on a six-game winning streak. That ties them with the Patriots for the longest active winning streak in the NFL. Finally, the Saints have the NFL’s longest active winning streak in “Monday Night Football’’ games. They’ve won six straight and haven’t lost since a 2008 game against Minnesota.

The “other’’ record: Understandably, most of the talk surrounding the Saints has to do with Drew Brees’ pursuit of Dan Marino’s record for passing yards in a season. But another member of the Saints is chasing history. That’s second-year tight end Jimmy Graham. He’s on pace for 99 catches and 1,338 receiving yards. The NFL record for receiving yards by a tight end is 1,290, set by San Diego’s Kellen Winslow in 1980. Graham also has had at least five catches in six straight games.

Making history: Even in a season that hasn’t been filled with wins, the Carolina Panthers have a chance to make some very positive history. Running back Jonathan Stewart needs to gain just 6 rushing yards to reach 600 for the season. Fellow running back DeAngelo Williams already has 717 yards and quarterback Cam Newton has 609 yards. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the last two teams to have three 600-yard rushers in a season were the 2006 Falcons (Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood) and the 1978 Patriots (Sam Cunningham, Horace Ivory and Andy Johnson).

Losing at historic rate: Some unflattering notes on Tampa Bay’s eight-game losing streak. It’s the longest active streak in the NFL and the first time the Bucs have lost eight straight in a season since 1987. If the Bucs lose to the Panthers and make it nine straight, it will set off some more statistical bells. The Bucs haven’t lost nine straight in a single season since starting 0-9 in 1985.

Wrap-up: Panthers 27, Colts 19

November, 27, 2011
11/27/11
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Thoughts on the Carolina Panthers’ 27-19 victory against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday at Lucas Oil Field.

What it means: You can diminish this win by saying it came against the worst team in the NFL. But any win is important for Carolina these days. This was the first win for the Panthers in more than a month. That’s significant, because the Panthers need to build some positive momentum the rest of the season to show that coach Ron Rivera and his young team are making progress. At 3-9, the Panthers need to use the rest of this season to build for next year. This was a start.

Note to Rivera and offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski: See what happens when you use DeAngelo Williams? He had a 25-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and a short touchdown run in the fourth. The Panthers certainly have done a nice job of improving their passing offense. But Chudzinski and Rivera need to remember they’ve got two very good running backs in Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Aside from receiver Steve Smith, Williams is the most explosive player on the offense. The Panthers need to remember that and keep Williams involved.

What I liked: The Panthers got second-year receiver Brandon LaFell more involved in the offense. That’s great. LaFell has had a pretty quiet career to this point. But he has some talent, and his size theoretically should make him a nice complement to Steve Smith.

What else I liked: Carolina’s defense played one of its better games of the season. Yeah, it came against an Indianapolis offense that’s not very good without Peyton Manning. But the Panthers have played so badly on defense most of the season that any sign of improvement is encouraging.

What’s next: The Panthers travel to Tampa Bay to play the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium next Sunday.

Panthers learning how to win

October, 23, 2011
10/23/11
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TBDBob Donnan/US PresswireCam Newton and the Panthers won their second game on Sunday after several frustrating defeats.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Ron Rivera was talking specifically about his defense, but he might as well have been summing up the state of the entire Carolina Panthers team.

“Our guys are going to learn and they’re going to understand those things and get better,’’ the first-year head coach said. “When they get better, people need to watch out.’’

Maybe people should start watching out for the Panthers now. They defeated the Washington Redskins 33-20 on Sunday at Bank of America Stadium.

That alone isn’t going to make Carolina’s season. The Panthers are 2-5, and I’ll go way out on a limb and say they’re not going to make the playoffs this season. That will come in the future. But they will have an impact on the NFC South race the rest of this season.

They have two games with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and one each with the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. They’ve already played the Saints and Falcons pretty closely, but ended up doing the same thing they did in their other three losses. They squandered chances to win.

That’s why beating the Redskins, who came in with a winning record, marked a big step for the Panthers. They never trailed in this game, and their defense, a problem spot all season, came up with three sacks, an interception and two fumble recoveries.

That’s huge progress, because this is a defense that’s playing even more young guys than planned because of season-ending injuries to linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis, and defensive tackle Ron Edwards.

“I take my hat off to the defense,’’ left tackle Jordan Gross said. “It was our best performance by far. They gave us the ball in good field position a lot and they made some big stops. I think they’ve only got room to go up from here and I’m excited about that.

Gross is one of just a handful of Panthers who were with the team in 2008 -- the last winning season. He’s been to Pro Bowls and so has wide receiver Steve Smith. They’re also the players remaining from the team that went to the Super Bowl at the end of the 2003 season.

Gross and Smith know how to win on the NFL level. But most of the Panthers haven’t experienced that on a consistent basis.

In the first six games, which included a win against Jacksonville, the Panthers have shown plenty of positive signs. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton started faster than anyone expected and energized Smith, who looks like he did in the middle of the last decade. Tight ends Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey have brought a dimension the offense hasn’t had since Wesley Walls left, and the running game (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart) has shown some flashes.

But the Panthers played porous defense, and even Newton and the offense were responsible for some crucial late-game mistakes that had kept the Panthers from winning.

“The fans have been so great,’’ Rivera said. “Wherever I’ve been, they’ve thanked me for us being close. It’s kind of frustrating, but, at the same time, I really appreciate that. But we want to give them victories. It’ll be great to say, 'Hey, we got one.'’’

But the moral victories were beginning to wear thin on some fans. Having a quarterback who can go out and throw for 400 yards in a game can only bring so much excitement when you’re piling up losses.

“I said to our team before the game, 'It’s our time. We deserve this,'’’ Gross said.

Coming close wasn’t good enough for Gross, Rivera, the front office, ownership and a growing number of fans.

“You don’t want to make too much out of one win or get too excited, but this team needs to win,’’ Gross said. “We can feel what it’s like to win and be excited, and hopefully everybody can remember this formula.’’

The formula actually is pretty simple in theory, and the Panthers were able to follow it throughout the entire game against Washington.

“Get the lead, keep it, and it’s a whole different ballgame,’’ Gross said.

It was a different ballgame as Newton had a very efficient day, completing 18 of 23 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown, and also running for 59 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers combined for 175 rushing yards, and the defense limited the Redskins to two field goals in the second half.

“When I walked out (of the locker room), I know the guys started talking about, 'Hey, we’ve got another opportunity to keep it going,'’’ Rivera said.

The Panthers do have an opportunity to build the first winning streak of Rivera’s tenure. The Minnesota Vikings (1-6) come to town in Week 8. After that, Carolina has a bye week. After that, the Panthers could start playing the role of spoiler for the rest of the NFC South in the second half of the season.

“We feel good about ourselves,’’ middle linebacker Dan Connor said. "That’s how you can start to build some momentum.''

You can see Rivera’s building something very promising in Carolina, and this victory might have been a nice step in that process.

“Sometimes you open up a restaurant and it’s under new management,’’ said Smith, who had seven catches for 143 yards. “Sometimes you just have to blow up the restaurant and start all over. That’s what Coach Rivera has done. He just didn’t slap a new menu on there. He did it all over -- new paint, new walls, new furniture and everything.’’

The paint is starting to dry and the furniture is starting to get comfortable. At some point down the road -- and it might not be that far off -- the rest of the NFC South is going to have to watch out for the Panthers.

Wrap-up: Falcons 31, Panthers 17

October, 16, 2011
10/16/11
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Thoughts on the Atlanta Falcons’ victory against the Carolina Panthers the Georgia Dome:

What it means: The Falcons improved to 3-3, but this was about much more than getting to .500. This was about keeping Atlanta’s season from spiraling out of control. There’s still a lot for the Falcons to improve on if they’re going to climb into serious playoff contention. But the Falcons at least bought themselves some time to get things straight. For Carolina, it was the same old story. The Panthers played a nice game and continued to show all sorts of promise for the future. But they’re still not playing quite well enough to win.

What I liked: With receiver Julio Jones out, the Falcons got back to basics on offense. It wasn’t anything fancy, but the Falcons did what they should have been doing all along. They got the ball into the hands of running back Michael Turner and he responded with 139 rushing yards and two touchdowns. There’s no question the Falcons need to pass the ball downfield more later in the season. But, now that they’ve got the running game going, they can reconfigure how they can incorporate the passing game to enhance their offense.

What I didn’t like: The throw by Carolina rookie quarterback Cam Newton that got picked off by Atlanta defensive tackle Corey Peters. It was a screen for DeAngelo Williams. It’s one thing for a rookie to get picked off on a downfield throw. But there’s no excuse for throwing an interception to Peters, who is far from the most athletic player in the league.

Play of the day: Near the end of the second quarter, Carolina was driving -- and very much in the game. But Newton, throwing for the end zone, had a ball tipped by safety William Moore. Cornerback Brent Grimes grabbed the ball for an interception and prevented the Panthers from scoring when it looked they were certain to come away with at least a field goal.

What’s next: The Panthers host the Redskins at Bank of America Stadium next Sunday. The Falcons travel to Detroit next Sunday.

NFC South Stock Watch

October, 11, 2011
10/11/11
1:00
PM ET
» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Mike Smith, coach, Falcons. For the first time since his arrival in 2008, Smith truly is taking heat and getting questioned. It’s deserved. The Falcons were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender, but they’re 2-3. You look at the roster and there’s plenty of talent. That’s when you start looking at the coaching. Smith has defended the play calling of both coordinators and said he ultimately is responsible for everything. He’s right about that. It’s time for Smith to decide if his system might need some tweaking on both sides of the ball. If he stays stubborn and conservative, he runs the risk of becoming what John Fox was in his later years in Carolina.

2. Josh Freeman, quarterback, Buccaneers. He remains a marvelous talent with all sort of potential. But the Bucs went out to San Francisco and scored only three points. That should never happen when you’ve got a quarterback like Freeman. His teammates certainly deserve a large part of the blame. But, so far, Freeman really hasn’t gotten into the same rhythm he was in last year. He’s already thrown six interceptions -- the same amount he threw all of last season.

3. Matt Ryan, quarterback, Falcons. Much like Freeman, Ryan’s not playing the same way he did last season -- or the two seasons before that. He came out hot Sunday night, but didn’t do much of anything after the first two drives. That shows the ability is there and it makes you wonder about how the Falcons are using Ryan. It’s time to take the gloves off this guy and simply let him go out and do what he does best.

RISING

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Jimmy Graham
Bob Donnan/US PresswireTight end Jimmy Graham has topped 100 receiving yards in each of his past three games.
1. Jimmy Graham, tight end, Saints. This guy now has three straight games in which he’s had 100 or more receiving yards. You can see coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees putting more trust in Graham each week and he’s getting better every time out. How long before we start talking about Graham as the NFL’s best pass-catching tight end? He’s already in the conversation.

2. DeAngelo Williams, running back, Panthers. It wasn’t too long ago that people were saying Williams was washed up and Jonathan Stewart should take over as the featured back. Sunday’s performance by Williams showed that time hasn’t come. He rushed for 115 yards on just nine carries. There’s plenty left in Williams’ tank. The Panthers would be wise to continue getting him more involved. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton is off to a wonderful start, but he’s only going to get better if the running game can take some of the pressure off him. The Panthers need Williams involved in the offense. Other than receiver Steve Smith, he’s the team’s next option as a big-play threat.

3. Patrick Robinson, cornerback, Saints. The first-round draft pick from a year ago is making an impact in his second year. He intercepted Newton on Sunday and has held onto the starting job even after Tracy Porter returned from injury. Sound familiar? Just like Malcolm Jenkins, New Orleans’ first-round pick in 2009, Robinson didn’t do much as a rookie, but is becoming a very solid starter in his second season.

Wrap-up: Bears 34, Panthers 29

October, 2, 2011
10/02/11
4:24
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Thoughts on Carolina’s 34-29 loss to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field:

What it means: The Panthers lead the league in moral victories, but they’re 1-3. They went into a tough venue and kept the game close until the end. That’s nice and there’s lots of hope for the future. But the Panthers still have a little way to go before they can win games on the road against good teams. High-priced kicker Olindo Mare didn’t exactly help matters by missing a field-goal attempt and having another blocked.

What I liked: The Panthers got DeAngelo Williams in rhythm in the running game for the first time this season. I know fans have been calling for Jonathan Stewart to start ahead of Williams and get the vast majority of the carries. Stewart’s a very good running back, but I honestly believe Williams is better. He’s more dynamic. Other than Steve Smith, he’s the most explosive player on this roster.

Cam’s calm: The most encouraging thing about the Panthers is rookie quarterback Cam Newton. This guy kept Carolina in the game and he bounced back nicely after throwing an early interception that was returned for a touchdown. His demeanor was impressive and you can’t say the same for counterpart Jay Cutler. The Chicago quarterback was making faces at teammates and freaking out at every sign of trouble.

What I didn’t like: Ron Rivera knows the Bears pretty well. He should have known better than to ever punt or kick the ball anywhere near Devin Hester.

What else I didn’t like: The Panthers couldn’t stop the run. Then again, that’s not at all surprising. They haven’t done that for a few years, and that probably isn’t going to change anytime soon with linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis out for the season.

Mr. Consistency: Carolina’s Charles Johnson has a sack in all four games this season. He had a six-game streak last season. This guy has done a nice job of filling the shoes of Julius Peppers. Johnson doesn’t take over a game the way Peppers sometimes did. But he also doesn’t disappear for weeks at a time, the way Peppers often did. Carolina has tried repeatedly to address the defensive tackle position. Nothing’s worked. This team has to go out and find a stud defensive tackle in free agency or the draft next year.

What’s next: The Panthers host the Saints next Sunday at Bank of America Stadium.
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