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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Saints in 2012.

Dream scenario (13-3): The ending of this dream is simple. It ends exactly where it starts -- in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. That’s the site of this season’s Super Bowl and there’s no sweeter vision in the eyes of Saints’ fans than watching their team win the NFL’s biggest spectacle at home. If revenge is sweet, this would be 1,000 times sweeter.

New Orleans fans and players are mad about how severely the NFL punished the Saints for their bounty program. They would love it if Roger Goodell hands the Saints the Lombardi Trophy in their own building.

It actually could happen. Think about it: Other than suspended coach Sean Payton, the Saints really haven’t lost that much from a team that went 13-3 last season. Linebacker Jonathan Vilma also is suspended for the entire season, but Vilma’s age (30) started to show last year. The Saints are better off with Curtis Lofton at middle linebacker. The Saints also will have to get through the first four games without suspended defensive end Will Smith.

But, other than that, this team remains loaded with talent. Drew Brees and the offense always will put up a bunch of points. If new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can make the defense better, the Saints easily are a playoff team. They’ll be motivated by an us-against-the-world mentality, so anything is at least possible.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): It’s easy to say Payton had a great system in place and a veteran team, so the assistants can just run the show and it will be business as usual. I tend to agree with that theory. But what if the importance of a head coach is even greater than we realized? And what if the emotional weight of the most turbulent offseason in NFL history catches up to the Saints?

That’s when all bets are off and when things could start falling apart. Since winning the Super Bowl in the 2009 season, the defense hasn’t been very good. The greatness of the offense has been enough to carry the Saints to the playoffs the past two seasons, but it hasn’t been great enough to carry them deep into the postseason. There’s no doubting Spagnuolo has a good defensive mind, but he might not have all the personnel he needs to run his scheme successfully.

Well, the easy thing to say is the offense will carry this team no matter what. But even if Payton wasn’t suspended, it’s hard to imagine the offense being even more productive than last season. Take Brees and the offense back down to what they were in 2007 and ’08, give New Orleans a defense that’s no better than last year and the Saints could tumble to a middle-of-the-pack team.

Trent Dilfer, Gary Horton, Mel Kiper Jr. and Matt Williamson got together and came up with an outstanding project that looks a few years down the road. Check out this Insider post in which they have NFL Future Power Rankings for all teams.

The rankings are based on what the panel projects teams will look like in the 2015 season. The panel used the following criteria -- roster, quarterback, draft, front office and coaching staff -- and weighed each in order of importance to come up with the rankings. You can see a more detailed explanation of the methodology here.

From an NFC South perspective, the rankings don’t look all that different than in recent years or what most people are projecting in 2012.

The panel says the New Orleans Saints, who have won two of the past three division titles, will be the division’s best team in 2015. The panel notes the bounty scandal and its punishments, but the consensus seems to be that the Saints can overcome that because there’s a strong nucleus in place, as well as a good coaching staff and front office. Horton notes the Saints have to build around guys like Jimmy Graham and Mark Ingram in the future. I think it’s true that the Saints have to develop some more young stars in the next few years. But, as long as Drew Brees is the quarterback, the Saints should be a top-10 team.

After the Saints, there’s a bit of a surprise. Although the Saints and Falcons have been the class of the division in recent years, the panel doesn’t see that quite being the case in 2015. The Falcons are No. 13 and the Panthers are No. 12.

Let’s start with why the Panthers are viewed as a team on the rise. Dilfer sums it up well by saying quarterback Cam Newton has an incredibly high ceiling. In 2015, Newton will be just approaching that ceiling. There’s no doubt the future looks bright for Carolina, but the Panthers may have to replace long-time stars Jordan Gross and Steve Smith before too long.

I disagree with the panel slightly on the placement of the Falcons. I think Atlanta will be a top-10 team in 2015 and probably each year between now and then. I agree with the panel that the Falcons have some old players at several positions, but I think general manager Thomas Dimitroff gradually will address those issues. As long as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones stay healthy and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon continues to emerge as a defensive star, I think the Falcons will be an annual playoff contender.

The Buccaneers are No. 19. While that ranking is last in the division, the Bucs have been in the 20s and 30s in a lot of recent rankings. The panel sounds optimistic about the Bucs in discussing the young talent and the new coaching staff. But there are a lot of unknowns. If quarterback Josh Freeman can get his career back on track and coach Greg Schiano can make the transition from college to the NFL, I think the Bucs have a real chance to jump up in the rankings when 2015 actually rolls around.

Last week, Drew Brees caused a bit of a stir when he said he was frustrated by the lack of progress in his contract talks with the New Orleans Saints.

It doesn’t sound like anything new has happened in the negotiations, but Brees didn’t sound as irritated in this interview with XX 1090 Sports Radio in San Diego.

“I understand that in the NFL, certainly after going through those negotiations last year during the lockout and the CBA negotiations, that certainly there is a business element to all of this that we all have to go through from time-to-time,’’ Brees said. “It’s not the fun part cause in the end we love this game. We love playing football. We love the interaction with the fans. We love what this game means to so many people. As quickly as we can all get back on the field and start playing ball again the better.”

Brees said that once a long-term contract is worked out he’ll have no hard feelings and plans on business as usual.

“I’ve got plenty of personal goals and team goals and that’s all I think about,’’ Brees said. “I think about when I step back into the locker room, back on the field, how can we bring this team together and go accomplish something great? You can’t take things personal in this business just because otherwise it eats you up. You gotta take on that mindset there is going to be moments like this, but in the end it is about getting in that locker room with your teammates and getting on the field and having a chance to win a championship because that is why we all play this game. There is no feeling like holding that Vince Lombardi Trophy or having the chance to accomplish something like that. Those are the things you remember when you look back on this game. Those moments.”

There's little sense in taking the bait when San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh tells a radio program Michael Crabtree "has the best hands I've ever seen on a wide receiver."

Anyone with a strong grasp of NFL history would place Cris Carter, Raymond Berry and Steve Largent on a short list for receivers with the surest hands.

Hall of Famer Ken Houston, speaking for a 2008 piece on all-time great wideouts, stood up for AFL stars Otis Taylor and Lionel Taylor.

"Lionel Taylor, I mean, he would catch a BB," Houston said.

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson, speaking for the same piece, said Randy Moss, then with New England, had the best hands in the NFL at that time (2008).

"A lot of guys can catch," Thompson said then. "He can catch on any platform, as we say in scouting. He can adjust and catch it over the top of somebody's head, catch it falling down, and it doesn't matter if he is covered."

With Moss now on the 49ers, it is possible Crabtree does not posses the best hands among wide receivers on his own team.

Oops. I wasn't going to take the bait on this one, but now it's too late. Time to regroup.

Bottom line, I suspect Crabtree has impressed Harbaugh this offseason, and Harbaugh would like that to continue for as long as possible. By offering such strong public praise for Crabtree, Harbaugh is setting a standard for Crabtree to meet this season. He realizes Crabtree has the ability to meet that standard, or else he wouldn't make the statement.

We should all recall Harbaugh's calling quarterback Alex Smith "elite" and promoting him for the Pro Bowl last season. Then as now, Harbaugh was standing up for his guy. Smith enjoyed the finest season of his career and even outplayed the truly elite Drew Brees at times during the 49ers' playoff victory over New Orleans. The way Harbaugh backed Smith played a role in that performance, in my view.

Back to Crabtree. He has the ability to rank among the most sure-handed receivers in the game. He has not yet earned that status, but now he has little choice, right?

As the chart shows, Crabtree finished the 2011 season with 12.2 receptions per drop, which ranked 28th in the NFL among players targeted at least 100 times. Larry Fitzgerald led the NFL with 80 receptions and only one drop. Those numbers are according to ESPN Stats & Information, which defines drops as "incomplete passes where the receiver should have caught the pass with ordinary effort."

Crabtree suffered six drops last season by that standard, a few too many for the player with the best hands his head coach has ever seen on a wide receiver.

Although Drew Brees said this week that he was frustrated with negotiations for a new contract, New Orleans Saints general manager Mickey Loomis once again said Friday that the quarterback will get a long-term deal.

Brees also said there was a lack of communication with the team. But Loomis said Brees’ comments did not cause any hard feelings.

“Drew loves the Saints and we love Drew,” Loomis said.

Saints owner Tom Benson also said a deal will get done.

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints made this list of the NFL’s top-10 front offices.

No big surprise there. The Saints and Falcons have been consistent winners the past few years, and the front offices undoubtedly have played a big role.

But I am a little surprised that the Saints were ranked No. 9 and the Falcons came in at No. 6. New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis and the people that work for him, and Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff and the people that work with him are very good at what they do. But I think you have to give the Saints the edge here, because they have won a Super Bowl. The Falcons have won a lot of regular-season games since Dimitroff’s arrival, but they have yet to win a playoff game during his tenure.

Until that changes, I can’t justify putting the Falcons ahead of the Saints in this category. But Loomis obviously is at a critical point in his career. He has yet to get franchise quarterback Drew Brees signed to a long-term deal. Brees has admitted he’s frustrated with what he called a lack of communication. But I still think this deal will get done before the July 16 deadline for franchise players to sign long-term contracts.

If things somehow don’t get worked out and Brees sits out the season, then Loomis immediately falls off the top of this list. But Loomis has been creative and completed complicated contracts in the past. If he signs Brees to a long-term deal, then Loomis stays atop the list for the foreseeable future.

Dimitroff is a very solid No. 2 in the division. He’s had some good drafts and acquired guys like Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez. But Dimitroff needs guys like Ray Edwards, Dunta Robinson and Asante Samuel to step up. He also needs the Falcons to get some postseason wins.

The Panthers and Buccaneers didn’t make the list of the top-10 front offices. Given the recent history of the two franchises, that’s not surprising. But Carolina’s Marty Hurney is the dean of NFC South general managers, and he’s had some success in the past. Hurney took a major step in rebuilding the Panthers by drafting quarterback Cam Newton last year. If Newton can duplicate his rookie performance, Hurney has a chance to crack the top 10.

Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik is entering a crucial season. He outlasted former coach Raheem Morris, and Dominik's offseason looks good on paper, but he needs the players he’s drafted to start showing some positive results.

The 32 crew understands Drew Brees' frustration with Saints ownership, Benjamin Watson answers questions from Facebook, and Mark Schlereth gives his opinion on Ray Edwards' calendar spread.

For months, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees had been saying he was optimistic and confident a long-term contract with the Saints would be worked out.

Brees changed his tune a bit in an interview with New Orleans’ WWL Radio.

"What's been a little frustrating on my end, or disappointing, is the lack of communication," Brees said. "We've reached out on quite a few occasions and at times I know I've been frustrated with the lack of response."

Brees raised the possibility of missing the team’s upcoming minicamp (June 5-7). The Saints placed the exclusive-rights franchise tag on Brees, but the quarterback continues to say he wants a long-term deal and won’t sign his $16 million tender.

"There should be a sense of urgency and it just seems like there's not," Brees said.

It seems like a bit of finger pointing has started. There have been some reports saying Brees wants as much as $23 million per season. Brees said reports of his asking price have not been accurate.

There are two sides to every story, but the potential for this one to get truly ugly continues to grow with each day that Brees doesn’t have a long-term deal. The deadline for franchise players to work out long-term deals is July 16.

Brees had emerged as the most popular player in franchise history in recent years and was applauded for his work on and off the field. But the drawn-out contract situation has caused a bit of a divide among New Orleans fans. Some have accused Brees of being greedy. Others say the team simply should open its checkbook, give Brees whatever he wants and get the quarterback back with his teammates immediately.

Here’s your chance to weigh in on that. Cast your vote in the accompanying SportsNation poll and fill up the comments section below with your thoughts on whether Brees or the Saints are more to blame for the contract stalemate.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the New Orleans Saints and why.

Long before the news of the bounty scandal broke, it was clear the Saints needed to do something dramatic on defense. Gregg Williams’ system worked nicely in the 2009 season as the Saints went on to win the Super Bowl. But defensive breakdowns were the main reason why the Saints lost a playoff game to Seattle in the 2010 season and to San Francisco last season.

That’s why the Saints quickly replaced Williams with Steve Spagnuolo as soon as the season ended. His chore is to build a more consistent defense and get away from Williams’ philosophy of taking big gambles in hopes of producing turnovers. Spagnuolo’s had success before by getting pressure almost exclusively from his front four and letting the back seven focus on pass coverage and run support. But middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma has been suspended for the season and defensive end Will Smith will be suspended for the first four games.

The Saints added Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne and they should make up for the loss of Vilma. But while Smith is out and even after he returns, Spagnuolo has to find ways to get a strong pass rush from a group of guys (aside from Smith) that don’t have a strong history of putting pressure on the quarterback. Spagnuolo’s defense doesn’t have to be dominant.

If the Saints can just come up with some stops at key times, Drew Brees and the offense are good enough to outscore anyone.

Cris Carter is concerned about Drew Brees' relationship with the Saints.

How to value Alex Smith's performance stood among the most debated subjects on the NFC West blog last season.

Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.

The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.

Total QBR, the metric ESPN's Analytics Team developed to more fully assess how quarterbacks contributed to winning, supported the 49ers' valuation.

Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.

The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.

Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.

The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.

Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.

These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.

"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."

The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.

"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.

"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."

I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.

For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.

My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.

This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.

Is there any hope after the bounty scandal?

Going an entire season without coach Sean Payton is far from ideal. But, aside from that, the Saints -- by planning, luck or a combination of the two -- didn’t come out of this horrid offseason with nearly as many offseason problems as they could have.

Really, all they're losing as far as personnel is defensive end Will Smith for the first four games of the season. Yeah, I know linebacker Jonathan Vilma has been suspended for the entire season. With all due respect to Vilma, he was a great player a few years ago, but he’s on the downside of his career and the Saints upgraded when they signed free-agent Curtis Lofton. Just for insurance, they also signed linebackers David Hawthorne and Chris Chamberlain. Throw the new guys in with Scott Shanle, Martez Wilson, Jonathan Casillas and Will Herring, and the Saints are stronger at linebacker than they were last season.

If new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can figure out a way to generate a pass rush without Smith (and improve it when he returns), the Saints will be just fine on defense. We already know they’re just fine on offense, assuming quarterback Drew Brees’ contract situation gets worked out. There might be a few more weeks or months of drama on that end, but I don’t see any way the Saints go into the season without Brees' having a long-term deal.

Get Brees back in there, and the Saints could combine marketing campaigns with the NBA’s Hornets, who were just purchased by Saints owner Tom Benson. The Saints truly are a hornet’s nest right now. They (and their fans) are steaming mad at the NFL, the media and pretty much everyone outside of their world. You can see an “us-against-the-world mentality’’ building. As motivational ploys go, that’s not a bad one. Oh, here's a little more motivation. The Super Bowl is in New Orleans. The Saints and their fans could show up the NFL if they make it to the Super Bowl.

This obviously isn’t one of the better days in the history of the New Orleans Saints. In addition to the suspensions of Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma, there’s another piece of discouraging news.

Citing a source close to the situation, Adam Schefter reports that quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints have made little progress on a long-term deal. The Saints placed the exclusive-rights franchise tag on Brees, but the quarterback has not signed his tender. Team owner Tom Benson previously said the sides were “close’’ to a deal and general manager Mickey Loomis recently said getting Brees signed is his most important order of business.

But it doesn’t appear as if any new deal is imminent. The only thing close to a bright side in all this is that Vilma’s yearlong suspension frees up almost $5 million in salary-cap space and that could be used to make room for a new deal for Brees.

We all have seen how negotiations can drag on and this one could continue for a while. Although the Saints have started their offseason program without Brees, there is not a huge sense of urgency for him to be with the team right now. I see several time frames where the sense of urgency could become greater and that could help spark a deal.

The Saints don’t begin their on-field organized team activities until later in May and that’s one possibility where either or both sides could feel more of a sense of urgency. The Saints begin their veteran minicamp June 5 and that could be another key time.

The Saints are scheduled to open training camp July 26 and, if a deal isn’t done by then, both sides could be in crisis mode.

There is at least one potential bright side to the season-long suspension of New Orleans Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma.

Since Vilma’s suspension starts immediately, the Saints suddenly have an extra $4,932,500 in salary-cap space. That’s the cap figure that Vilma’s contract was lowered to when he renegotiated his deal on April 20.

That could help the Saints, who have been trying for months to work a long-term deal with quarterback Drew Brees, who currently has been designated with the franchise tag. As long as he carries the tag, Brees counts $16 million toward the cap. The Saints have been tight against the cap all offseason, but this could give them the necessary room to finalize a deal with Brees.

Vilma’s contract had been scheduled to run through 2013. But the suspension changes that. Assuming Vilma does not have the suspension overturned on appeal, his contract “tolls’’ over according to league rules. What he was supposed to make in 2012, will now be his 2013 deal. What had been scheduled for 2013 will be pushed back to 2014.

But Vilma will not be paid this year. That means he’ll have to wait until next year to earn his $1.6 million base salary, a $600,000 roster bonus and a $100,000 workout bonus.

Defensive end Will Smith also drew a four-game suspension. But the Saints won’t get any immediate cap relief for that because Smith’s suspension doesn’t begin until the start of the regular season. The Saints still will have to carry his $5,327,451 cap figure throughout the offseason. Once Smith’s suspension begins, his cap figure stops counting -- temporarily. As soon as he’s reinstated, he’s back on the books at a slightly reduced rate.

Smith also renegotiated his contract this offseason and lowered his base salary to $825,000. Divide that by by 17 (players are paid each week, plus the bye, during the regular season) and the total cost of Smith’s suspension comes to $194,117.65. The Saints won’t be responsible for that portion of Smith’s cap figure once he returns from suspension.

After acquiring Wisconsin guard/center Peter Konz in the second round, the Atlanta Falcons have moved ahead of the New Orleans Saints. At least that’s the way the voters see it in our post-draft power rankings.

The Falcons moved up to No. 12, one spot better than in our March 20 rankings. The Saints dropped to No. 13, two spots below where they were in March.

I’m just guessing here, since I don’t have a vote, but I really don’t think the draft had all that much of an impact. I’m guessing all the turmoil surrounding the Saints, including possible player suspensions for the bounty program, are the real reasons New Orleans tumbled in the eyes of the voters. Let’s keep in mind, no matter what happens with possible player suspensions, the Saints still will have an explosive offense -- as long as Drew Brees’ contract situation gets resolved.

I am a little surprised that Carolina and Tampa Bay didn’t come out of the draft looking better in the eyes of the voters. The Panthers drafted linebacker Luke Kuechly in the first round and he should help improve their defense. But, somehow, the Panthers who were ranked No. 18 in March, dropped to No. 21. I don’t get that one at all.

Tampa Bay, which added likely starters Mark Barron, Doug Martin and Lavonte David, stayed at No. 24 --the same spot they were in back in March. I don’t get that one either.