ESPN NFL

There's little sense in taking the bait when San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh tells a radio program Michael Crabtree "has the best hands I've ever seen on a wide receiver."

Anyone with a strong grasp of NFL history would place Cris Carter, Raymond Berry and Steve Largent on a short list for receivers with the surest hands.

Hall of Famer Ken Houston, speaking for a 2008 piece on all-time great wideouts, stood up for AFL stars Otis Taylor and Lionel Taylor.

"Lionel Taylor, I mean, he would catch a BB," Houston said.

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson, speaking for the same piece, said Randy Moss, then with New England, had the best hands in the NFL at that time (2008).

"A lot of guys can catch," Thompson said then. "He can catch on any platform, as we say in scouting. He can adjust and catch it over the top of somebody's head, catch it falling down, and it doesn't matter if he is covered."

With Moss now on the 49ers, it is possible Crabtree does not posses the best hands among wide receivers on his own team.

Oops. I wasn't going to take the bait on this one, but now it's too late. Time to regroup.

Bottom line, I suspect Crabtree has impressed Harbaugh this offseason, and Harbaugh would like that to continue for as long as possible. By offering such strong public praise for Crabtree, Harbaugh is setting a standard for Crabtree to meet this season. He realizes Crabtree has the ability to meet that standard, or else he wouldn't make the statement.

We should all recall Harbaugh's calling quarterback Alex Smith "elite" and promoting him for the Pro Bowl last season. Then as now, Harbaugh was standing up for his guy. Smith enjoyed the finest season of his career and even outplayed the truly elite Drew Brees at times during the 49ers' playoff victory over New Orleans. The way Harbaugh backed Smith played a role in that performance, in my view.

Back to Crabtree. He has the ability to rank among the most sure-handed receivers in the game. He has not yet earned that status, but now he has little choice, right?

As the chart shows, Crabtree finished the 2011 season with 12.2 receptions per drop, which ranked 28th in the NFL among players targeted at least 100 times. Larry Fitzgerald led the NFL with 80 receptions and only one drop. Those numbers are according to ESPN Stats & Information, which defines drops as "incomplete passes where the receiver should have caught the pass with ordinary effort."

Crabtree suffered six drops last season by that standard, a few too many for the player with the best hands his head coach has ever seen on a wide receiver.

The Broncos’ compensation in the Tim Tebow trade is a gift for Tebow’s replacement, Peyton Manning.

Denver took Baylor center Philip Blake with the No. 108 pick, in the fourth round. That was the primary pick the Jets gave up in the Tebow trade.

Interestingly, Blake will backup/compete with J.D. Walton, a former Baylor teammate. Denver took Walton two years ago and he has been the team’s starter. Manning has been working closely with Walton since Manning signed in Denver last month. Blake likely won’t compete with Walton right away.

The Broncos made an interesting pick early in the fourth round in the in the form of Arizona State cornerback Omar Bolden. He missed all of last season with an ACL injury. He has excellent cover skills and, if healthy, he likely would have been a second-round pick last year.

Bolden is now healthy. It’s a worthwhile pick for Denver since they are looking for young cornerbacks who don’t have to start right away. This pick has a chance to be a steal.

The Chiefs love small, return types. They drafted Devon Wylie of Fresno State in the fourth round. Wylie is dynamic player. He is fast and NFL-ready, yet he is just 5-foot-9, 188 pounds. He can also kelp in the return game, where the Chiefs have several options. Wylie is similar to 2010 second-round pick Dexter McCluster.

He and McCluster can be on the field together with McCluster being in the backfield. With big receiver Dwayne Bowe and Jon Baldwin, the Chiefs continue to give themselves matchup options.

The Chargers began to start thinking about a post-Antonio Gates world by taking Louisiana-Lafayette tight end Ladarius Green in the fourth round. Like the Chargers’ first three picks, Green was expected to go earlier in the draft. He is an interesting prospect for down the road.

Any team with Larry Fitzgerald at wide receiver would seem to be set at the position, or close to it.

But as Steve Muench of Scouts Inc. explained when we discussed receivers Tuesday, there's a reason Mario Manningham made the key reception for the New York Giants against New England in the most recent Super Bowl.

"They talked about Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl saying, 'Give them Manningham,' and then Manningham makes that crazy catch," Muench said. "That was because they didn't want Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz to beat them."

The concept, explored further in the "First Take" video above, could justify any decision Arizona might make to select a wide receiver, most likely Michael Floyd, with the 13th overall choice in the draft Thursday.

A few more thoughts on the Cardinals' options, lifted from my conversation with Muench ...

Sando: You like where the 49ers stand in this draft. What about Arizona?

Muench: The Cardinals are not in a bad spot. They are going to get Michael Floyd or Riley Reiff, the way I see it. And really, I don't think you are upset about either one of those picks. To me, it's Buffalo and Arizona. What Buffalo does, Arizona will take the other player. Buffalo needs a tackle and would like to get a playmaking wide receiver. The same for Arizona.

Sando: I've felt as though improved quarterback play would be the key to maximizing the Cardinals' existing weapons. That might be the case, but your point on Manningham and the Giants resonated, too.

Muench: Kansas City tried to get Jonathan Baldwin to play next to Dwayne Bowe. San Diego had some success with Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Jackson. It's what those guys make defenses do in coverage and also to defend the run. When you have two guys on the outside, it's tough.

Sando: Arizona used third-round choices for Andre Roberts and Early Doucet. Without a second-round choice this year, those are the types of receivers that might be available to them if Reiff is the choice in the first round.

Muench: The Cardinals haven't had that guy to draw attention away from Fitzgerald. Steve Breaston was a good complimentary receiver, a good sub-package receiver, but he was not going to force a coordinator to make a tough decision. Floyd could do that.

Sando: OK, then, let's say your theory plays out, but the Bills take Floyd.

Muench: Riley Reiff would start at right tackle from day one. I don't think he's a left tackle, but some of Matt Kalil's weaknesses are Reiff's strengths. He is a tough, hard-nosed guy -- not the most athletic, but he finds a way to get it done and is tough in the run game. Sort of like the Jon Runyans of the NFL. He immediately makes you better and starts for years.

Sando: Best-case scenario, then, which player would the Cardinals get at No. 13?

Muench: With no second-ronder, from a roster standpoint you would almost rather them get Reiff because it's a deeper receiver class and you could find some guys in the third round to come in and contribute, like a Brian Quick from Appalachian State. He has a lot to work on, but if he realizes his potential, he's going to be a starter on the outside.

The AFC West representatives (three of the four teams, at least) for the Madden ’13 cover chase have been announced.

The four players who survived the intra-team play-in round are: Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe, Oakland’s Sebastian Janikowski, San Diego’s Antonio Gates and … Tim Tebow of Denver.

Awkward.

Denver’s representative is a player who is involved in a trade the team is trying to finalize with the New York Jets.

Tebow beat Denver linebacker Von Miller. Bowe beat Kansas City linebacker Derrick Johnson, Janikowski beat Oakland punter Shane Lechler and Gates beat San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers.

The winners are now in the final 32 and they will compete against players on other teams. The results from that round will be announced next Wednesday.

Wide receivers Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal, Laurent Robinson, Josh Morgan, Eric Weems and Harry Douglas have found new homes after hitting the NFL's free-agent market.

Franchise tags essentially removed from consideration Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson.

Others, such as Marques Colston, re-signed before free agency.

Teams still searching for help at the position -- that would be pretty much everyone but Seattle in the NFC West -- are left with a picked-over group of free agents.

Jerome Simpson, Burress, Brandon Lloyd, Legedu Naanee, Devin Aromashodu, Roy Williams, Mario Manningham and Early Doucet are the only ones remaining to have played at least half of their team's offensive snaps during the 2011 season.

As the chart shows, Burress was particularly effective in the red zone for the New York Jets. He converted first downs 38 times in 45 receptions for the third-highest percentage among wide receivers with at least 40 receptions, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Burress is also up there in age. He's among 12 available wideouts already in their 30s: Hines Ward (36), Burress (34), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (34), Kevin Curtis (33), Patrick Crayton (32), Deion Branch (32), Rashied Davis (32), Donte Stallworth (31), Jerheme Urban (31), Bryant Johnson (31), Lloyd (30) and Williams (30).

Of them, Lloyd has visited the San Francisco 49ers.

Nine more are 29 years old: Greg Camarillo, Keary Colbert, Mark Clayton, Jerricho Cotchery, Roscoe Parrish, Michael Clayton, Courtney Roby, Michael Spurlock and Braylon Edwards.

Still interested?

OK, let's check out 18 others, all younger than 29: David Anderson, Legedu Naanee, Devin Aroshamodu, Donnie Avery, Anthony Gonzalez, Maurice Stovall, Derek Hagan, Mike Sims-Walker, Ted Ginn Jr., Andre Caldwell, Steve Smith, Doucet, Brett Swain, Chaz Schilens, Simpson, Manningham, Devin Thomas and Kevin Ogletree.

Schilens visited Arizona and San Francisco. Manningham visited the 49ers and the St. Louis Rams.

I've also broken down the available wideouts by drafted round:

• First: Williams, Burress, Ginn, Stallworth, both Claytons, Johnson, Gonzalez and Edwards
• Second: Avery, Thomas, Simpson, Smith, Parrish, Branch, Colbert
• Third: Roby, Doucet, Hagan, Stovall, Manningham, Caldwell, Curtis, Sims-Walker, Ward
• Fourth: Cotchery, Lloyd
• Fifth: Legedu Naanee
• Sixth: none
• Seventh: Houshmandzadeh, Crayton, Schilens, Aromashodu, Anderson, Swain
• Undrafted: Davis, Urban, Camarillo, Spurlock, Ogletree

Only a handful of the available receivers project as starters. None would qualify as an outright game-breaker.

The Rams in particular need playmakers, but in looking at what is available, how many would qualify as dramatically better than what they already have? Austin Pettis, Brandon Gibson, Danario Alexander, Dominique Curry, Greg Salas and restricted free agent Danny Amendola are their current wideouts.

Brandon Lloyd's trajectory has changed dramatically and so has that of his original team, the San Francisco 49ers. The parties will scarcely recognize one another when Lloyd pays a free-agent visit to the team Wednesday.

The 49ers won as many regular-season games last season, 13, as they did during the three seasons Lloyd spent on the roster beginning in 2003.

Lloyd, despite enjoying a bright moment or two, ranked only 93rd among NFL players with 2,370 yards receiving from 2003 through 2009, bouncing from San Francisco to Washington to Denver along the way. He improbably has 2,414 yards over the past two seasons, sixth-most in the NFL behind Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace and Wes Welker.

Playing with a long list of sub-mediocre quarterbacks surely contributed to Lloyd's disappointing first seven seasons. Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, J.T. O'Sullivan, Cody Pickett and Chris Weinke were among the starters while Lloyd was with San Francisco through 2005. Jason Campbell, Mark Brunell and Todd Collins were the starters when Lloyd was with Washington.

Lloyd's two-year run of production has come with Josh McDaniels as head coach (in Denver) or offensive coordinator (in St. Louis). McDaniels is now in New England, but if Lloyd is going to follow him there, it will be after first giving the 49ers a look.

Michael Crabtree and the newly signed Randy Moss are the top two receivers on the 49ers' roster. Josh Morgan agreed to terms with Washington. Ted Ginn Jr. is testing the market and reportedly plans to visit the Detroit Lions.

Lloyd's reputation in San Francisco as an immature player unconcerned with winning appears outdated. He is now 30 years old and meeting expectations. The 49ers have largely new leadership, creating the opportunity for a fresh start.

.

The Denver Broncos have gotten a jump on the Peyton Manning chase.

Television news helicopters followed Manning’s ride from a Denver-area airport to the Broncos facility, where Manning is meeting with team officials. It won’t be his last visit. ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported that Manning will visit the Cardinals; Kansas City owner Clark Hunt has said the Chiefs have interest in Manning as well.

Expect Manning to make his decision within the next several days. The veteran quarterback will weigh several options before making his decision. Let's look at how the Broncos and the Chiefs stack up in several areas:

Finances

Denver: It has already been reported the Broncos are willing to spend whatever it takes to get Manning. Denver owner Pat Bowlen has seen Manning beat his team’s brains in for years. He’d happily pay to get Manning on his side.

Kansas City: The Chiefs are in great salary-cap shape. They can easily hang with any other team’s offer for Manning.

Supporting offensive cast

Denver: The Broncos have strong offensive linemen, a good running game and some solid receivers. There is room to get better and I’m sure the Broncos would promise Manning improvements, even allow him to make suggestions.

Kansas City: The Chiefs have a better supporting cast in the passing game than Denver. Manning would likely be thrilled to throw to receivers Dwayne Bowe, Jon Baldwin and Steve Breaston and tight end Tony Moeaki. The Chiefs can run the ball, too. And Manning would reunite with former Colts teammate guard Ryan Lilja.

Defense

Denver: The Broncos have an improved defense and are expected to try to get better. If the six-game suspension of linebacker D.J. Williams holds up, however, it will weaken the group.

Kansas City: Romeo Crennel’s defense was fabulous at the end of last season and it has a chance to be a stellar group with a few additions. Manning would have to be impressed by this group.

Coaching staff

Denver: Denver head coach John Fox loves veteran quarterbacks and is a noted players' coach. He and Manning would be a natural fit. Offensively, the Broncos showed last season that they are more than willing to adjust their system to their quarterback. Manning would like this group.

Kansas City: Crennel runs a New England-like ship. No opponent knows how important coaching was to New England’s success better than Manning. I think Crennel and his staff would work well with Manning.

Intangibles

Denver: The Broncos have something no other competitor for Manning has: a Hall of Fame quarterback running the show. John Elway would give Manning what he wanted, and he understands what it is like to be in Manning’s shoes as few others do.

Kansas City: The Chiefs don’t have a Hall of Famer running the show, but Hall of Famer Len Dawson is never too far off.

Room for friends

Denver: The Broncos could be open to signing several of Manning’s former Colts teammates, including center Jeff Saturday, receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark. That would appeal to Manning.

Kansas City: The Chiefs are pretty set at receiver and tight end. I could see them making room for Saturday, however.

Ability to win now

Denver: The Broncos went from being 4-12 in 2010 to going 8-8 and winning a playoff game in 2011. With Manning and a few more pieces, the Broncos would be a threat to make a deep playoff run.

Kansas City: The Chiefs went 7-9 in 2011 despite several injuries. Adding Manning could make the Chiefs a dark-horse Super Bowl choice.

Conclusion: Both teams have strong selling points to Manning and both have the means to get it done. It will come down to a comfort level for Manning, who will also consider other teams. But there’s no doubt that both the Broncos and Chiefs will be in this chase for the long haul.

» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Denver Broncos

Key free agents: K Matt Prater (franchised), DT Brodrick Bunkley, S Brian Dawkins, TE Daniel Fells, FB Spencer Larsen, WR Eddie Royal, QB Brady Quinn, DT Marcus Thomas, LB Wesley Woodyard, P Britton Colquitt (restricted).

Where they stand: The Broncos will have plenty of salary-cap room. For a team that went from 4-12 with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft to winning the AFC West and a playoff game in John Fox’s first season as coach, the Broncos are in position to improve through free agency. With Prater franchised, the team’s only priority unrestricted free agent is Bunkley.

What to expect: Don’t expect a huge spending spree. The Broncos are cash conscious and I think the franchise is still recovering from some undisciplined spending during the Mike Shanahan era that ended in 2008. We will see the Broncos try to add several pieces at lower prices. Denver could address needs at safety, running back, receiver, tight end, linebacker and quarterback. Keep an eye on players such as Washington safety LaRon Landry, Seattle tight end John Carlson, quarterbacks Chad Henne (Miami), Dennis Dixon (Pittsburgh) or Josh Johnson (Tampa), running backs Michael Bush (Oakland) and Mike Tolbert (San Diego), and defensive lineman Jonathan Fanene Cincinnati.

Kansas City Chiefs

Key free agents: WR Dwayne Bowe (franchised), CB Brandon Carr, QB Kyle Orton, RB Jackie Battle, LB Jovan Belcher, S Jon McGraw, C Casey Wiegmann, RB Thomas Jones, DE Wallace Gilberry, DT Kelly Gregg

Where they stand: The Chiefs are in great shape on cap space even after signing cornerback Stanford Routt and franchising Bowe. They have already done a nice job in free agency with these two moves and have a good, young roster. Kansas City can become a serious playoff contender with the right moves. It is likely Carr will leave in free agency, but the Chiefs should be able to re-sign most of their other free agents if they wish.

What to expect: I’m not sure we will see the Chiefs break the bank for any of the super-hot free agents, but I expect them to do some significant shopping. I think we could see Kansas City look for help at nose tackle, linebacker, safety, tackle, running back and quarterback. Of course, the intrigue could start if the team gets in on the Peyton Manning sweepstakes. But they could also look at several other quarterbacks, including Orton, Henne, Jason Campbell (Oakland) or even Quinn. They could also be in the mix for Miami nose tackle Paul Soliai, Saints guard Carl Nicks and running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis (New England), Bush and Tolbert.

Oakland Raiders

Key free agents: S Tyvon Branch (franchised), RB Michael Bush, QB Jason Campbell, LB Quentin Groves, C Samson Satele, WR Chaz Schilens, DE Trevor Scott, FB Marcel Reece (restricted).

Where they stand: The Raiders are one of the few teams that must get under the salary cap. Oakland coach Dennis Allen recently acknowledged the team has work to do. The Raiders have some contracts that can be easily restructured, but they also may have to cut some players, particularly on defense. Linebacker Kamerion Wimbley and defensive tackle John Henderson are among the top candidates.

What to expect: The Raiders likely face some limitations once they get under the cap, but they can add two or three starting-quality players under the right circumstances. Their primary needs are on defense, starting at cornerback and linebacker. The offensive line could be upgraded as well. I think they can be in on the second wave of cornerbacks. A player to watch is New Orleans cornerback Tracy Porter, who previously played for Allen. There are some solid second-tier cornerbacks Oakland could be interested in other than Porter. There will be some good players available on both sides of the ball after the initial wave of free agency for short-term deals. Expect the Raiders to do some bargain picking during that time. I think Oakland will be interested in signing several of its free agents, but I expect Bush and Campbell will leave.

San Diego Chargers

Key free agents: WR Vincent Jackson, C Nick Hardwick, RB Tolbert, DT Antonio Garay, OT Jared Gaither, FB Jacob Hester.

Where they stand: The Chargers will be in decent shape and they are getting even better after cutting Luis Castillo, the retirement of guard Kris Dielman and the expected release of tackle Marcus McNeill. But San Diego still has a lot of work to do. They have the most priority free agents of any team in the division. Signing Jackson, Hardwick, Gaither, Tolbert and Garay will be a challenge.

What to expect: The Chargers will likely stick to their usual plan and concentrate first on their own free agents. But they also have other needs and they will likely spend more in free agency than they have done before under general manager A.J. Smith. I get the sense from some agents that the Chargers may spend wildy in an attempt to win back the fan base’s trust after the unpopular contract extensions for Smith and coach Norv Turner. The pair were brought back even after missing the playoffs for a second consecutive season. I also get the sense from inside the organization, however, that the Chargers will not act out of desperation. Look for the team to consider pass-rushers, nose tackles, safeties and offensive linemen if Hardwick and Gaither aren’t brought back. A receiver will also become a major need if Jackson goes. The Colts' Reggie Wayne could be an option in that case. A running back such as Cadillac Williams (St. Louis) reportedly will be in the mix if Tolbert walks. Soliai could interest the team as well. Chicago special teams ace Corey Graham may also be a target. If the Chargers want to make a huge splash, they could try to get in on Houston pass-rusher Mario Williams, who is widely considered the best player on the market.

Minutes before the deadline, the Kansas City Chiefs did what was long expected of them: they placed the franchise tag on receiver Dwayne Bowe.

"Today was the league’s deadline to designate a franchise player and we felt it was in the best interest of the Kansas City Chiefs to place the tag on Dwayne," Kansas City general manager Scott Pioli said in a statement released by the team.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Feb. 25 that Bowe will be franchised. Here were my thoughts on that report.

There was little chance the Chiefs, who are in excellent salary-cap position, would allow Bowe to hit the open market. Expect the Chiefs to try to sign Bowe to a long-term deal by the July 15 deadline. If Bowe is not given a long-term deal, he will be set to be an unrestricted free agent again next year.

Pioli has done a good job of keeping the Chiefs’ best players and has gotten off to a good start in free agency. The Chiefs have already secured Bowe and former Oakland cornerback Stanford Routt. He was signed two weeks ago.

The Chiefs’ top unrestricted free agent is cornerback Brandon Carr. There is little chance he will return. Expect Dallas to be among the teams to make a big push for Carr.

Yes, it's unusual to spend this much time writing about a Buffalo Bills wide receiver on the NFC East blog, but the Bills' signing of Stevie Johnson has a ripple effect. I do not think the Washington Redskins were planning to target Johnson if he hit the open market, since he's a bit younger and more unproven than the free agents Mike Shanahan has said he'd like to sign. But Johnson's five-year, $36.25 million contract, which includes $19.5 million in guarantees, helps define the market for free-agent wide receivers.

For my money, the best potential free-agent wide receiver this year is Vincent Jackson, who doesn't appear likely to be franchised for the second year in a row by the San Diego Chargers. Jackson is 29 years old, and therefore in Shanahan's preferred age range for free agents. He's also 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds and would be the sort of big, physical downfield threat the Redskins' wide receiver corps currently lacks.

When I spoke with Shanahan in December and asked him about offseason priorities, he specifically mentioned wide receiver and said, "We need a No. 1." With as much cap room as the Redskins have, they should be able to afford any of the No. 1 wide receivers available -- be it Jackson, Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Pierre Garcon or whomever. All of those guys are likely to demand more than what Johnson just got from Buffalo, and with the possible exception of Garcon their track records indicate that they deserve it. Johnson's deal establishes the bottom of the free-agent wideout market, and is surely helpful to the Redskins as they budget their potential offers.

The issue the Redskins will have is convincing these guys Washington is a place worth playing. Money is one thing -- and don't kid yourself into thinking it's not the first, second and third most important thing to free agents -- but there will be other teams bidding big on these guys, and it would help the Redskins' case if they could tell these free-agent wideouts the name of the quarterback who will be throwing them the ball in 2012, or what they plan to do to upgrade the offensive line and improve their chances of contending for the playoffs in the short term.

That's another reason it'd be nice for the Redskins to have the quarterback situation resolved sooner rather than later -- for example, agreeing on a trade this week with the Rams for the No. 2 overall pick from which they could draft Robert Griffin III. They're going to be big-game hunting for wide receivers, and having their act together in other areas would help ensure that their money looks as enticing as other teams' money does.

There will be significant AFC West franchise tag clarity in the coming hours.

The deadline is at 4 p.m. ET for teams to decide to put the franchise tag on a player. Giving a player the franchise tag all but guarantees he will be with that team in the 2012 season. Here's a quick recap of where each team is at heading to the deadline.

Denver: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the Broncos will place the tag on kicker Matt Prater. That is no surprise. The Broncos and Prater have been talking about a long-term contract for some time. They can continue to work on a deal until July 15. Because three other kickers were given the tag, there is a strong chance both the Broncos and the Prater were reluctant to set the market for kickers. Whatever happens, expect the Broncos to figure out a plan to keep Prater in Denver for the long-term. With Prater getting tagged, defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley is now Denver’s top player headed to free agency.

Kansas City: Schefter reported Feb. 25 that the Chiefs would place the tag on receiver Dwayne Bowe if a long-term deal isn’t reached. The Chiefs have kept their plans close to the vest. Perhaps Bowe will sign a new deal or perhaps the Chiefs will pull a stunner and place the tag on cornerback Brandon Carr. I think the odds are the Chiefs tag Bowe.

Oakland: The Raiders got a jump on the process by tagging safety Tyvon Branch on Thursday. The team decided to tag Branch over running back Michael Bush, because Branch is a starter and the team has a bigger need in the secondary than at running back. Bush should be popular on the open market.

San Diego: Receiver Vincent Jackson is hours away from being one of the biggest prizes on the open market. There is a remote chance the Chargers tag Jackson. But the team would rather save the franchise money and take its chances in signing Jackson on the open market.

The money isn’t mine. I’m not certain about what you can afford and what the market will pay when free agency opens on March 13. I’m not positive about your plans and schemes.

But I’ve got a good sense of your team. We've looked at the free-agent list.

And here’s what I’d try to do with your major issues:

1) Land at least one premium free-agent wide receiver. I’d stack them something like this: San Diego’s Vincent Jackson, Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe, Buffalo’s Steve Johnson, New Orleans’ Marques Colston. If you’re bold and will take two, I like Indianapolis’s Pierre Garcon or New Orleans’ Robert Meachem.

2) Re-sign safety Dwight Lowery. Just a year ago, you were a mess at safety. You did fine work signing Dawan Landry and trading for Lowery and shifting him from corner to fix it. You have to keep it fixed. Hopefully he realizes what a great fit he is in a top-flight defense. But there are a lot of safety-needy teams out there, including your AFC South rival Titans. Lowery needs to be in your lineup in 2012.

3) Be a player for Mario Williams. If Houston’s outside linebacker/defensive end becomes a free agent as I expect, you can afford to make a huge splash with him. And you’re a premier pass-rushing defensive end and a cornerback away from being a premier defense. If Williams goes elsewhere and the Colts’ Robert Mathis comes free, he should be the second target.

4) Shop free-agent quarterbacks to upgrade the backup plan for Blaine Gabbert. Chad Henne probably finds a better situation. Kyle Orton too. How about Jason Campbell? The new backup needs to have the right disposition -- sit back, offer guidance, run a good scout team. But he also needs to be able to play, because if Gabbert is bad again, you can’t just sacrifice the season. You have to have a better backup than Luke McCown.

5) Let defensive end Jeremy Mincey explore the market. He’s a supreme effort guy you’d like to have back. But he’s not worth the kind of money I imagine he’s looking for. If the rest of the league agrees, you’ll have a chance at him later. If he gets swept up, then someone likely overpaid.

6) Monitor your defensive tackles closely. Tyson Alualu's knee surgery wasn't said to be major, but the knee kept him from peak performance last season and they need to get it right. And Terrance Knighton's weight cannot continue to be an issue going forward. Ultimately it's on him, of course, but the new staff needs to find the best, most helpful approach.

7) Wait on Rashean Mathis unless he's cheap right away. The corner will be an unrestricted free agent but is coming off a torn ACL. He's a great team guy and can still play, but the end is in sight. You want him on a cheap, short deal and hopefully you draft the guy in April who replaces him in 2013.

8) While you have plenty of cap room, you still want to be conscious of paying reasonable prices. You can wait to decide on them later. But even a healthy Aaron Kampman isn’t worth a $4.97 million base. And fullback Greg Jones played only 38.7 percent of the team’s snaps last season but is schedule to make $3.4 million. Too much.

The Peyton Manning saga will surely be the story of the NFL offseason. The question in the AFC West is, will the Kansas City Chiefs be the story along with the legendary Indianapolis Colts quarterback?

As of now, we have to think it is a real possibility that the Chiefs will heavily pursue Manning -- who may be cut by the Colts as soon as next week -- if he becomes a free agent. Manning, who will turn 36 on March 24, missed all of last season with a neck injury and there is no certain date when he will be 100 percent, although there have been reports he will be ready to play in 2012.

If the Chiefs end up signing Manning, it won’t be the first time the organization brought in a living legend at the end of his career after he suffered a serious injury. The Chiefs traded for San Francisco’s Joe Montana in 1993.

The Chiefs have been connected to Manning in recent weeks. A Kansas City radio station has even reported that the team has had multiple conversations with Manning’s agent about finances and that the Chiefs feel comfortable about what Manning may want. That would constitute tampering and it is highly unlikely any team would talk finances with Manning before giving him a physical and knowing more about his recovery timetable. Still, the Chiefs have a load of salary-cap room and they can easily construct a deal for Manning in addition to making other improvements.

Of course, Kansas City coach Romeo Crennel did nothing to take the scent off a potential Chiefs-Manning pairing when he said this at the NFL combine last Saturday: “With a talent like that, I would be crazy not to consider it if he’s available. I’ll leave it at that.”

The Chiefs are not necessarily looking for a new starting quarterback. At the combine, Kansas City general manager Scott Pioli wouldn’t say the job is open. He said the starter is Matt Cassel. However, there will be competition at every position. The translation is the Chiefs expect Cassel to be the starter, but if a better option comes along, they will consider it. There’s no doubt a healthy Manning would be a better option.

If the Chiefs do want to go deep into the Manning sweepstakes, they will have competition, likely beginning with Miami and Washington. There will surely be other teams that show interest in the player who many consider one of the greatest NFL players of all time.

In addition to their interest and financial means, here’s another reason the Chiefs could be favorites to land Manning: They may be the best team interested in him. That would surely appeal to Manning when he is making his choice. I’m not sure many of the interested teams can offer Manning a better supporting cast.

The Chiefs have a strong running game and Manning would have plenty of receiving options. No. 1 receiver Dwayne Bowe is expected to be franchised, 2011 first-round pick Jonathan Baldwin is a potential game-changing deep threat and Steve Breaston is a solid possession receiver. Tight end Tony Moeaki is expected to be healthy after missing the 2011 season with a knee injury. He was terrific as a rookie in 2010.

In addition to appealing offensive weapons, the Chiefs have the makings of a strong defense. A healthy Manning would immensely help any team. But Manning could be a difference-maker in Kansas City. Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said adding Manning would make the Chiefs -- who finished 7-9 in 2011 despite major injury issues -- “the clear favorite to win the AFC West” in 2012.

Putting Manning in the Heartland would make many teams in the AFC nervous.

I would think Manning would also be fine with working with Crennel and Pioli. He is close with New England quarterback Tom Brady and Brady won Super Bowls with both men. I’m sure Brady would give Manning glowing reports on both of his potential bosses. And don’t think Manning would have trouble working with a defensive-minded coach like Crennel. Remember, the man Manning won his Super Bowl ring with, Tony Dungy, was a defensive-minded coach.

Cassel is also a factor in this scenario. Because Manning will be signed before there are any guarantees he’ll be ready to play, any team that signs him must have a good fallback plan. There are fewer better fallbacks than Cassel.

If Manning is signed and he has a setback, the Chiefs can rely on Cassel, who shined as Brady’s injury replacement in 2008. While Cassel wouldn’t be thrilled with the idea of backing up Manning, I’m sure he’d understand the Chiefs taking advantage of a rare opportunity to pick up a future Hall of Fame player.

There are a lot of reasons this pairing makes sense. If it happens, the Chiefs will be at the center of the NFL universe.

AFC West readers are getting their wish. NFL.com is reporting the Oakland Raiders have informed safety Tyvon Branch that he will receive the franchise tag. That all but guarantees Branch will remain in Oakland in 2012.

The franchise tag for safeties is worth about $6.2 million. If Branch doesn’t sign a long-term deal, he will become an unrestricted free agent again next season unless he is given the franchise tag again.

The Raiders are choosing to give Branch the franchise tag instead of running back Michael Bush. That is the right call. Branch is a starter and Bush is a backup, although he is a key backup. Bush will very likely sign elsewhere in free agency. The Raiders have other needs and will have spending limitations.

Yet, it was crucial to keep Branch. He is one of the better players on a defense that is likely to see a lot of changes this season. Branch will be a strong anchor.

A fourth-round pick in 2008, Branch has emerged as an above-average safety and a tackling machine. He is not without faults, but new Oakland head coach Dennis Allen, who is a secondary specialist, should be able to improve Branch down the road. Despite the Raiders' salary-cap issues, keeping Branch was the right thing to do.

Meanwhile, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Chiefs will give receiver Dwayne Bowe the franchise tag. The Chargers are very much leaning against giving receiver Vincent Jackson the franchise tag and will likely try to re-sign him after free agency starts. The Broncos are working on a long-term contract with kicker Matt Prater, but if a deal isn't reached he may be franchised by Monday’s deadline.

INDIANAPOLIS – As we thought, don’t expect to see Dwayne Bowe playing anywhere but in Kansas City in 2012.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Chiefs plan to give Bowe the franchise tag if the two sides cannot come to an agreement on a long-term deal. The deadline to give a player the franchise tag is March 5. The receiver franchise tag is $9.5 million.

It has been expected that Bowe would be given the franchise tag once the Chiefs signed former Oakland cornerback Stanford Routt on Monday. Kansas City's other high-profile free agent is cornerback Brandon Carr. The Chiefs have repeatedly said they want him back, but it is unlikely he will return and it doesn't make sense for Kansas City to give Carr the franchise tag.

So, instead of having Bowe and Carr, the Chiefs will likely have Bowe and Routt.

Even if Bowe is franchised, expect the Chiefs to try to extend his contract at some point in the next year. If not, he’ll be eligible to be a free agent again next year.

The decision to franchise Bowe also affects San Diego. Receiver Vincent Jackson is a free agent and he is not expected to be given the franchise tag. The Chargers want to re-sign him, but he is expected to go to the open market first. With Bowe out of the way, the market for Jackson will get even more competitive.