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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set, where they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense, and helps set Luck and the offense up with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

And should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Colts and why.

The Colts are changing in a big way on defense -- they aim to be bigger, more physical and better against the run. Although they talk of being a hybrid, they want to be a base 3-4 front.

To me, the pressure point will be split between two guys: Coach Chuck Pagano, the architect of the scheme, and the guy who will have to answer for its progress. His coordinator, Greg Manusky, will help spread the message, install the system and draw up game plans. The coach and his coordinator share the pressure for a unit that is converting high-quality 4-3 ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis into outside linebackers.

The two are excellent rushers, and there is risk in asking them to stand up and change. But they’ll be charging quarterbacks from a variety of spots, and offenses probably prefer to know where exactly they’ll be lining up.

Pagano helped Indianapolis land three players he coached in Baltimore: nose tackle Brandon McKinney, end Cory Redding, and safety Tom Zbikowski. The draft added only fifth-round nose tackle Josh Chapman and and seventh-round end Tim Fugger.

How much of the personnel deficiencies, especially in the secondary, can Pagano and Manusky cover up with scheme?

Who’s playing pass defense for the Indianapolis Colts?

New coach Chuck Pagano will convert the Colts, a longtime 4-3 team, to a 3-4. He’s cited the Texans’ changeover a year ago as an example of how it can happen in one year and how the front actually gets scrambled up and can often still have the look of a 4-3.

In Year 1 for Pagano in Indianapolis, however, it’s the personnel that may dictate more of the old base front. The Colts signed a veteran nose tackle (Brandon McKinney) and a veteran end (Cory Redding), and drafted a nose tackle in fifth-rounder Josh Chapman. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will be less predictable coming forward from outside linebacker positions.

The problem is in the secondary.

Indianapolis was 15th against the pass last year. But that ranking is misleading because offenses could run against the Colts and often handed off while trying to run time off the clock and preserve leads.

Antoine Bethea is a quality free safety and Jerraud Powers is a good corner. Beyond them, the Colts are thin and unproven in the defensive backfield.

They didn’t draft any defensive backs, though their initial undrafted rookie group of 15 includes five of them.

No matter how well the Colts rush out of the new front, the team needs people behind it who can cover, which is not the strong suit of the veteran addition to the group, strong safety Tom Zbikowski.

His boss encouraged him to continue to find time to work out. So even in the most harried and stressful times in the frantic early stages of his tenure as the Colts' new general manager, Ryan Grigson periodically found his way to the team’s weight room.

“I lift weights a few times a week,” he said. “I should do more cardio. I feel like I got ran so hard as an athlete, if I don’t have to run I don’t want to. I like to lift hard.”

Forty-five hard minutes or an hour in the weight room take him way back, to early childhood memories.

“We had York weights in my basement. I was five years old and I’d see my dad down there with my uncles with their work boots on and cutoffs and tool belts, down there lifting. My brother is a big lifter. I just stick to basic movements that crush you real fast. It’s more work and less time. That’s all I can do here.

“The workout is the same every time: dips, pull-ups and bench press. I do it hard and I do it fast and I get out. It definitely clears your head. It’s good to get that blood flowing. Even early on [Colts owner] Jim Irsay would tell me, ‘Get in that weight room, get a workout.’ It gives you energy. When I was burning that midnight oil early on to the point it was ridiculous, when you had no time to sleep because you couldn’t turn your mind off, without those workouts, coffee and the support of my wife, I don’t know if I would have made it through.”

He had more to make it through than most first-time general managers.

Grigson took over a team that was about to part ways with an icon. He had no relationship with Peyton Manning, and Irsay was making the call. But as Grigson was introduced as the new GM, and later when he spoke to the press at the combine, he faced hard questions he couldn’t really answer. He sweated under the bright lights, and squirmed at least a little.

Nearly anyone would have.

Fast forward to last week’s draft.

He looked and sounded like a different guy, talking about his draft picks and the start of something, not the end.

“People have told me that, that I seem more relaxed,” he said. “When I am in the moment before, I’m still being me, maybe I just have my game face on, I don’t know. It sure is nice now to be able to talk about the guys we took and not have to sidestep anything.”

He’s not being cliché when he talks about going day-by-day, minute-by-minute, and even second-by-second. He spoke of being ultra-focused. When you are a laser beam like that, it’s believable when you talk of having no timetables for a return to prominence.

Before the draft, Irsay tweeted out a reminder of how long it took the Colts to win a playoff game after drafting Peyton Manning in 1998. (The Colts beat the Broncos and the Chiefs in the 2003 postseason.) Many analysts thought the plea for patience wasn’t something the owner needed to send out at that time.

But clearly, despite adding No. 1 pick Andrew Luck, the Colts need time. They cut or lost at least 10 of the 22 players who would have been opening day starters if the old regime stayed in place and kept its people. They are eating a giant amount of dead money against their 2012 salary cap to gain financial freedom in 2013.

When I said something about the need for patience being obvious, Grigson was pleased.

“That’s refreshing to hear you say that,” he said. “A lot of people seem to think that we can do that all at once. You have to have four drafts combined and 30 picks to get all the best players that you wanted. It’s not happening.

“There has to be an element of patience within the organization. That was a very key trait I saw in Mr. Irsay from day one. We have pillar guys who are helping us moving forward. But everyone knows no one is looking at us to do anything.”

The Colts couldn’t address every position of need in the draft and they have to reshape some of what remains. Indy will have to scheme around and deal with being weak at certain positions this year, like at cornerback.

“There are positions that scheme-wise, haven’t been as vital due to what they did,” Grigson said. “At specific positions we need different body types maybe, different types of athletes with different skill sets.”

During the initial minicamp and in offseason workouts, guys have picked things up, bought in and started learning nuances of the position that may be different. Players who will ultimately be gone may be asked to transform their game.

“They’re working, it’s nice to see guys really working,” Grigson said. “Coach [Chuck] Pagano and his staff have created an air of enthusiasm. We know we have a very long road to hoe and no one denies that. But we’re out there doing what we can control, and that’s to go full speed, to listen, to get in the playbook, to lift the weights, to condition, do all those things, the little things with high intensity.

“I look at it in a very simplistic view. I tell my kids if you hustle and work really hard, good things happen. If you cherry pick and just kind of loaf around, nothing’s ever going to fall in your lap. You’re not going to be that guy who gets a fumble recovery for a touchdown or a pick bounces off someone’s shoulder pads and lands in your hands. That usually happens to someone who’s flying around.”

His wife and five children have not joined him in Indianapolis yet, which gave him more leeway to put in the ridiculous hours he felt were necessary before the draft. His only respites were those weight room sessions, Sunday Mass and an occasional frozen pizza heated up and eaten while he watched the news or found a decent movie, preferably a comedy.

Otherwise, he was watching film, assessing issues, making decisions.

When I’ve asked people around the league about Grigson, they talk about him with respect. He’s regarded as a quality personnel man with the qualities needed to lead a front office and build a team. He inherited a tough situation with Manning’s departure, but he’s also incredibly fortunate to have Luck.

Grigson knows this rebuild is going to be hard and take time. He’s excited to get to another stage, where he can walk past the clicker in his office and not have it work like a magnet, pulling him back to watch more film. At this stage, player study no longer trumps everything else.

But even at this slower time, there is plenty pulling at him, plenty to do. He will soon add to his scouting staff. He’ll continue to work with Pagano, trying to maximize the coach’s chances of success. He’ll watch offseason practices, considering the tiny pictures and the big picture the tiny ones combine to create.

“It’s like I’m a rookie left tackle and every game I’m facing Michael Strahan, Bruce Smith, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis,” he said. “Hopefully in the end all these experiences that I’ve had will help me to be a better GM and a better football man.”

Hopefully, at least three times a week, he’ll find his way to that weight room, fall into his routine, and build up the sort of big sweat that clears his head, at least for a little while.

“As long as it keeps me from looking real bad,” Grigson said, “then I’ll keep doing it.”

RENTON, Wash. -- There were no bold strikes up the draft board for NFC West teams Thursday night.

There was resignation among those hoping the St. Louis Rams would emerge with a No. 1 wide receiver for quarterback Sam Bradford. The Rams traded down instead, taking LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers after wideouts Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd vanished from the talent pool right before St. Louis picked.

There was the expected in Arizona, where the Cardinals went with Floyd over tackle Riley Reiff, no slam dunk but a widely projected scenario in recent weeks.

There was waiting in San Francisco, where the 49ers did not pick until No. 30, where they selected Illinois receiver A.J. Jenkins shortly after two top guards landed elsewhere.

And then there was utter shock in Seattle, where the Seahawks used the 15th overall choice for a player with more time logged in jail than in the mainstream media mock drafts circulating recently.

The Seahawks could have had pass-rushers Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram or Chandler Jones, but instead they went with West Virginia's Bruce Irvin, a former junior-college transfer with a rough past, a sensational first step and a history with Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, who once recruited him to USC.

Irvin is not Charles Haley, Chris Doleman, Derrick Thomas or Dwight Freeney. He is not even Von Miller or Jevon Kearse. The Seahawks think he'll become that type of player quickly, however, and they are not shy about leaving that impression. It's an upset if Irvin fails to reach double digits in sacks this season, to hear the Seahawks speak of him.

"This guy comes off the ball like Dwight Freeney and Von Miller and Jevon Kearse," general manager John Schneider said.

Irvin is not for everyone. At 6-foot-3 and 248 pounds, he's a pure pass-rusher, not a player with the strength to anchor against the run on early downs. Irvin represents what Carroll wants for the "Leo" role manned capably by Chris Clemons in recent years. Irvin will play immediately as a situational pass-rusher. The plan will be to groom him as Clemons' successor eventually.

"He is exactly the makeup that you are looking for," Carroll said. "This goes all the way back to Charles Haley and Chris Doleman and Derrick Thomas. That is the kind of effect this guy has a chance to have. He has a lot to learn. He is going to have to grow up with us and learn our system. But the makeup of this player is so rare. He looks like a carbon copy of Von Miller rushing the passer."

Seattle spent big to retain run-stuffing defensive end Red Bryant in free agency. The money Bryant commanded means he'll be on the field for early downs. And with Clemons coming off an 11-sack season, that meant the Seahawks weren't looking for an every-down defensive end. They were looking for a player with a unique set of skills, and Irvin fits on that front. His 6.7-second time in the three-cone drill was the fastest for any player at the scouting combine.

"This position is so rare to find a guy that runs this fast," Carroll said.

Irvin follows a pattern in Seattle. Bryant is much bigger than the typical defensive end. Brandon Browner (6-4) and Richard Sherman (6-3) are taller than the typical cornerback. Kam Chancellor is the biggest strong safety in the league. Earl Thomas might be the NFL's fastest free safety. Linebacker K.J. Wright stands 6-4 and is rangier than most.

Now comes Irvin, who played wide receiver in high school before flunking out as a junior. Irvin was living on the streets for two years, at one point keeping his possessions in a bag. He spent a couple weeks in jail after allegedly robbing a drug dealer. Irvin pulled himself together, earned his GED and landed, eventually, on the football team at Mount San Antonio College.

"I went through a lot of stuff in my life," Irvin said. "I've seen a lot. The average person would not be on this call."

Nothing came of a more recent arrest for destruction of property.

"The Lord knew it was B.S.," Irvin said, drawing laughter from reporters huddled around a conference-call speaker at Seahawks headquarters.

A year ago, the Seahawks shocked draft analysts by selecting tackle James Carpenter with the 25th overall choice. Carpenter hadn't appeared in many first-round mock drafts, but the Seahawks weren't the only team with a first-round grade on him. Pittsburgh and Green Bay also liked him. An injury derailed Carpenter last season, making it tough to evaluate that choice. The Irvin selection was similar in that virtually no one projected the move.

So far, though, Carroll has usually been right when targeting specific defensive players for specific roles. And there is precedent within the division for surprise first-round selections making an immediate impact.

The 49ers selected Aldon Smith seventh overall last year when few projected the Missouri pass-rusher to San Francisco. Smith, unlike Irvin, was widely considered a top-15 prospect by analysts. Smith finished his rookie season with 14 sacks, finishing behind only Miller in defensive-rookie-of-the-year balloting, even though conventional wisdom suggested Smith would need time to develop.

Smith succeeded right away largely because the 49ers used him properly, asking him to do the one thing he could do best: rush the passer.

The bar has been set high for Irvin.

"I'm just a great athlete," Irvin said. "I'm going to do great things for this organization. The sky is the limit for me."

INDIANAPOLIS -- Ryan Grigson's film study of Andrew Luck took him beyond reads and recognition, mechanics and throws.

“You’re talking about a guy who, when there is a busted play or he throws an interception, he runs down and hits like a linebacker,” the Colts general manager said. “On a trick play, he shows the ball skills of an elite receiver.”

Those are nice clips from Stanford, for sure, and they reveal much about the Indianapolis Colts new quarterback.

But with Luck officially their man, Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano have effectively taken a pledge to add people and craft a scheme to maximize his chances at success -- and not when he turns into a defender or a receiver. If the Colts' new regime stays true to that obligation, it shouldn’t be long before Luck is doing what top NFL quarterbacks do -- completing passes in critical situations and leading his team to wins and playoff appearances.

It’s a familiar storyline for sure. It's the same oath the franchise took with Peyton Manning in 1998.

“I think this thing happened 14 years ago,” Pagano said. “I think it’s all happening again, right before our eyes.”

Pagano went on to rattle off a list of qualities everybody wants in his quarterback and top players: football IQ, character, integrity, work ethic, good family background, worldliness, humility, leadership, passion and competitiveness.

“When you look at clean players across the board, when you talk about height, weight, speed, intelligence -- A to Z, if you want to label him a nine or 10 in everyone of those categories, you probably can,” Pagano said.

The Colts are not slated to pick again until 34th, the second pick of the second round Friday night.

A chorus of analysts say they are duty-bound to add someone who can help Luck, despite the pull Pagano, a former defensive coordinator, may feel for a defender. My opinion is they don’t absolutely have to go offense the next time they are on the clock, but in this draft and until the roster is filled out, they should lean that direction more often than not.

Grigson emphasized “this is a team” and that the Colts will do things with a team mindset, acquiring good players, regardless of position.

But, he also admitted the obvious.

“Of course you want to protect him the best you can, you want to put players around him that are going to make him comfortable, you want to do things to help facilitate him being great,” Grigson said.

Pagano has emphasized running the ball well and stopping the run, elements that are typically regarded as providing aide to a young quarterback, but elements too that have become less and less important to Super Bowl-winning teams in the modern NFL.

“You’ve got to protect the kid, you’ve got to put enough pieces and enough playmakers around him,” Pagano said. “… You can add a piece here and you can add a piece there to make sure that everything doesn’t rely on Andrew making plays with his arm and running around making plays with his feet outside the pocket and extending plays and things like that. We’ve got to play great defense too, I’m not going to slight that.”

The Colts want to protect Luck with good blocking, but are also conscious they will have to protect him from himself as he looks to inherit Manning’s mantle, revive a franchise coming off a horrific year that prompted monumental changes, and give the city a new sporting face.

“He’s going to be eager to come in here and think that he’s got to carry this whole thing on his shoulders,” Pagano said. “And that’s the first thing we’re going to tell him. He doesn’t have to do that. He’s just got to do what he does and that’s play quarterback. And he plays it really well.”

As good as he is coming into the league, Luck is not a finished product. What great collegian is?

Pagano hired Bruce Arians as his offensive coordinator because he effectively helped shape Manning here early on as well.

The new quarterback will arrive in town Friday knowing he’s got plenty he can work on as he evolves into a professional. Play calling can be a big help to him as well, Pagano said.

I wrote earlier of traits Luck has that date back to high school, and how they can be contagious for a rebuilding franchise. He said he doesn’t know if his long-time ability to compartmentalize will be needed more or less as he becomes a full-time football player. It’s just another of the many things he will learn in the months and years ahead.

For right now, Luck said the most exciting part of things is becoming part of a new locker room and getting to “meet the guys.” It was a Manning-esque comment, deflecting focus, aiming to share it.

Luck said it’ll be an honor to throw to Reggie Wayne, whom he called a future Hall of Famer, as well as Austin Collie and Donnie Avery. He said it will be big to be able to learn leadership qualities from Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

And he seemed thrilled to hear Grigson and Pagano talk about how they’ll surround him.

“It’s exciting to be part of a team where they are saying that they need playmakers and all of that,” he said. “I’m looking forward to it. … You don’t want to get too ahead of yourself. You have to realize you have to go through a whole process leading up to a game through a season.

“That being said, I do have high expectations for myself. And I’ll try to do the best I can. I know it’s cliché, but I’ll try to live up to my own expectations and fit in with all the guys and then do the best we can.”

INDIANAPOLIS -- While the Colts await the official start of the Andrew Luck era, earlier Thursday they had a minicamp practice. It was Dwight Freeney’s first time on the field since Chuck Pagano has taken over, and his first time lining up as an outside linebacker in a new 3-4 defense.

Here’s Freeney, via Phillip B. Wilson of the Indianapolis Star:

“It’s going to be interesting. It’s fun right now, at least, just doing something different. I’ve been doing one way for what, 10 years going on 11 years. It’s kind of fun to do something different.

“And you know it’s a proven system. Guys can make plays. We’ll see what happens.”

Freeney said he’s talked to Baltimore middle linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed about the 3-4 system that new Colts coach Chuck Pagano has brought from his days as the Ravens defensive coordinator. Pagano has said the Colts will play a hybrid defense, sometimes in a 3-4 and other plays in a 4-3 alignment.

“They love (Pagano). They love the system,” Freeney said. “They said, ‘You’re going to love it.’ I guess it’s a rush friendly type of scheme, which I love.”

There is still buzz about the Colts looking to trade Freeney. But he’d have to strike a new deal with a new team to reduce the scheduled base salary of over $14 million in the final year of his current deal.

Indy has 10 picks, but three of them are in the seventh round.

Anything they can do to get more and draft players who can help Luck on offense and speed the conversion of the defense would be welcome. Since Freeney is only assured of one more year here and is so expensive, dealing him would make sense.

But as Peter King points out in that piece I linked, the Eagles getting only a seventh-rounder for cornerback Asante Samuel from the Falcons says a lot about the trade market for veterans.

I think it’s crazy, personally. Freeney can still rush the passer. The odds you hit a home run with even a third-rounder that makes the pick more valuable over a career than the three years of Freeney would be worth are exceptionally low.

Freeney said he’s under contract and expecting to play it through.

We’re talked a lot about needs for the Colts, beyond quarterback which will be addressed when they draft Andrew Luck first overall: cornerback, safety, nose tackle, tight end, receiver and perhaps an offensive lineman.

We’re expecting Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney to spend most of their time at outside linebacker in a new 3-4 the Colts will be in as often as possible. If so, then some guys who were tackles in the old 4-3 will shift to end in that front. Fili Moala and Drake Nevis would head the list to work with free-agent addition Cory Redding. Nevis was not mentioned by GM Ryan Grigson recently when he talked of free-agent addition Brandon McKinney and holdover Antonio Johnson as the team’s primary answers at nose tackle.

In this scenario, the Colts are quite thin at outside linebacker.

I fully expect Jerry Hughes will get a chance there. The next most notable linebacker names on the roster for a spot that needs a great deal of depth are Kavell Conner and Scott Lutrus. And Conner may be an inside guy.

While Mathis and Freeney will surely be asked to do much of what they’ve done through successful careers as outside backers, the fact remains that there isn’t one proven 3-4 outside linebacker in that group. (And beyond Pat Angerer, there isn’t a guy we know can play inside in a 3-4 either -- though that situational job isn’t as difficult to fill.)

Freeney is also entering the last year of a very expensive contract.

The Colts have 10 picks in the draft, five in the first 136. They’ll need to address linebacker somewhere along the way.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Houston Texans

Key additions: None.

Key losses: OLB Mario Williams, RG Mike Brisiel, CB Jason Allen, TE Joel Dreessen, RT Eric Winston (cut), ILB DeMeco Ryans (traded), FB Lawrence Vickers (cut), QB Matt Leinart (cut).

Keepers and finance: Not everyone got away. The Texans managed to keep two very important players. They re-signed running back Arian Foster before he reached restricted free agency. And after he'd explored the market some, they struck a deal with unrestricted-free-agent center Chris Myers, a vital piece to a line that lost the two starters on the right side when Winston was cut and Brisiel bolted to Oakland.

Ryans was not a full-time player in the 3-4 defense, and his price tag was high. While Houston takes a $750,000 hit this season, he’s cleared from the books in the future. That will help the team as it tries to make sure players like outside linebacker Connor Barwin and left tackle Duane Brown don’t get away like Williams did.

What’s next: Depth paid off in a big way in 2011 as the Texans managed to win the division and a playoff game despite major losses. At several spots, like on the offensive line and at corner, the draft will serve to replenish the roster with the same kind of insurance.

But the Texans are not without need.

While they are likely to stick with Jacoby Jones as part of the team and like Kevin Walter, a more reliable and dynamic weapon to go with Andre Johnson at receiver is something they acknowledge wanting. A third outside linebacker can reduce the high-snap strain on Barwin and Brooks Reed. While they hope Rashad Butler will replace Winston and Antoine Caldwell will take Brisiel’s spot, adding a guy who can compete for one or both of those spots would be healthy.

Indianapolis Colts

Key additions: DE Cory Redding, WR Donnie Avery, C Samson Satele, S Tom Zbikowski, G Mike McGlynn, RT Winston Justice (trade), QB Drew Stanton (trade).

Key losses: QB Peyton Manning (cut), WR Pierre Garcon, TE Jacob Tamme, C Jeff Saturday, TE Dallas Clark (cut), LB Gary Brackett (cut), S Melvin Bullitt (cut), RT Ryan Diem (retired), WR Anthony Gonzalez, QB Dan Orlovsky, CB Jacob Lacey (not tendered), QB Curtis Painter (cut), DE Jamaal Anderson, G Mike Pollak.

So much we don’t know: We know background on coach Chuck Pagano and his coordinators and we know what Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have said. But there will be a degree of mystery well into the season about what they intend to run and with whom. It’s unlikely to be a sweeping transition to a 3-4 defense, as it takes time to overhaul the personnel. But as they play a hybrid defense and move toward a conversion, they’ll need more than they’ve got – starting with a nose tackle.

On offense, they’ve said they’ll use a fullback. That’s a major departure from the previous regime. And we don’t know if a Donald Brown-Delone Carter duo at fullback will be sufficient to run behind. They need help virtually everywhere after the cap purge and free-agency turnover. Not everything will get addressed as much as they’d like in their first offseason.

What’s next: I expect more role players like Zbikowski and McGlynn, more castoffs like Justice and Stanton and more guys who are presumed finished by a lot of teams, like Avery.

They are all guys who didn’t cost much but who have upside and can help, at least as role players. And if they don’t pan out, it’s hardly a death blow to Indianapolis' major, long-term plans. Money is limited with big dead-money charges and a $19 million cap hit for defensive end Dwight Freeney the team has indicated it's willing to carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key additions: WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross, QB Chad Henne.

Key losses: DT Leger Douzable (did not tender).

Keeping their own: The Jaguars did well to hold onto players who have been valuable to them. The top of that list belongs to safety Dwight Lowery. They traded with the Jets for him before last season, shifted him full time to safety and got good work from him before he was hurt. It was crucial for the team to stay fixed at the position where it was horrific in 2010 before signing Dawan Landry and adding Lowery.

They also re-signed defensive end Jeremy Mincey, a great effort defensive end who was overextended in terms of playing time last year. He’s no sack-master, but he’s going to bust it on every play, break through sometimes and make the opponent work hard to stay in his way. And with the lack of quality defensive ends who hit the market, the Jaguars did well to keep him from jumping to Chicago.

What’s next: Receiver has to be addressed beyond a change in position coach and the addition of Robinson. If it’s not in the first round, it needs to be early. The franchise is trying to maximize Blaine Gabbert’s chances to be a franchise quarterback, and few would be able to establish themselves with the current cast of wideouts.

The Jaguars are a top pass-rushing end away from being a top-flight defense. Can they find him seventh overall in the draft? They could tab someone like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, though it’s hard to say he or any rookie would be an immediate solution. Most ends need some time to become impact guys in the league.

The Jaguars could certainly look to add in the secondary free-agent market and when players are set free late in training camp.

Tennessee Titans

Key additions: DE Kamerion Wimbley, RG Steve Hutchinson.

Key losses: CB Cortland Finnegan, DL Jason Jones, WR Donnie Avery.

Sidetracked: Did the Titans miss out on real chances to sign either Scott Wells, who went to St. Louis, or Chris Myers, who stayed in Houston, as their new center because they were focused on chasing quarterback Peyton Manning? Perhaps. But when the owner declares that his executives and coaches need to put the hard sell on an all-time great QB with roots in the team’s state, that’s what you do.

Ideally, the team will still find an alternative to Eugene Amano. If the Titans find a new center to go with Hutchinson, who replaces free agent Jake Scott in the starting lineup, the interior offensive line could see a big improvement. That could have a big bearing on running back Chris Johnson, provided he takes care of his own business.

What’s next: The Titans think Wimbley will excel as a full-time defensive end, but they can’t afford for him to be too full time. He’s a smaller guy who’s played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and shouldn’t be asked to play every down of every game. That means they still need more help at end, where the only other guys they have right now are Derrick Morgan and Malcolm Sheppard.

Look for them to address depth at corner -- where they feel fine about Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner as the starters, if that’s how it falls -- as well as at receiver. One wild-card spot could be running back. Are they content with Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper as changeups to Johnson, or would they like to add a big back?

Points of interest from a conference conversation between Colts general manager Ryan Grigson and the Indianapolis media, per a transcript provided by the team:

On three offensive line additions: “Anybody that I would have brought in here is someone who has a very good chance of competing and winning a job. This is going to be a very competitive environment, and that’s how we want to approach this thing at camp. Being very competitive so we’re bringing the best out of everyone. The cream rises to the top in any environment, and that’s the approach I want to take and that’s the approach Coach (Chuck) Pagano is comfortable with. That’s what we’re doing here with these types of players. They all have ability, they’re all wired a certain way and they play the game with a high tempo and they finish. We’re pleased with who we’ve brought into the fold thus far…”

Grigson

“The whole thing about the offensive line is that it’s a team within a team. It has to be cohesive and guys have to help one another and have a certain playing style. That certain playing style is what we’re trying to accomplish with these signings. Also, athletic ability comes into play at some point as well. We want guys who love to play the game, and it shows on film that they love to play the game. And that they play at the right tempo and play with a purpose. That’s to play snap to whistle, and that’s what we’re going to do.”

On wide receiver Donnie Avery: “He’s always been a fast guy. He was the first receiver taken. He’s had considerable production early on in his career, and of course, he as well as we (do), hope he gets back to that level. We sure hope he does, and I know he does. It’s a nice get for us based on what he brings to the table and what he can help in this (offense) with much-needed wrinkle of speed. And he’s a welcomed addition.”

On the status of Dwight Freeney: “Everything with Dwight is great. He’s going to be here this year. We expect him to be a major contributor, and a guy who strikes fear in our opponents and those offensive linemen every week. Moving forward, we’re going to take it day-by-day, and everything right now looks great for our defense with re-signing Robert (Mathis) and having Dwight in the fold. It sure makes me sleep better at night knowing those two guys are going to be bringing it on third down.”

On reports of Freeney on the trading block in order to get out from under his $19 million cap number: “There is a lot of speculation as I’m learning this thing. It’s pretty rampant, and there are a lot of rumors. Like I said, I think last time I addressed (that). There are a lot of rumors that fly, but there’s never been any substance that would suggest we’re doing anything like that. He’s a Colt, period.”

On plans to see the top quarterbacks:“We saw (Robert Griffin III). Circumstances didn’t allow us to do anything private with him, so we did the usual pro day. We did the best we could with that situation. We do have a private workout that we’re scheduling with Andrew (Luck) in the future, which will be here in the upcoming weeks.”

On starting negotiations with the number one draft pick early: “No. We’re going to do it the old fashion way, and that’s not something that’s been discussed at this point about how we would go about that. I think we’ll do it like team[s] always have and keep it simple.”

On the Colts being a fullback team: "As of right now, yes we’ll utilize a fullback. We also can utilize a tight end in a fullback type role. Those things are all evolving as we move forward here, and see what we actually have to actually pick in this draft. We’re still looking and digging for players and trying to get as deep of a pool of quality players that can come in and play for us from college free agents all the way up to the first round. We’re working on that and we’re going to try and plug in the best guys possible, and try to get as many guys in the fold as we can. We’re knocking it out every day as best we can. Hopefully, every day we make a little bit of progress and take it from there.”

With the departure of Peyton Manning and Mario Williams, the AFC South lost two overall No. 1 picks.

The loss of star power led me to wonder about what our teams have left in terms of high-ranking draft picks, and how they compare to one another and the rest of the league.

John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information looked at the average draft slot of the top 10 highest-drafted players -- how ever deep that goes beyond the first round -- still on each team.

Obviously, where a team drafts is based on how it finishes. Certainly higher draft picks hardly guarantee successful choices. But if you’ve got higher picks, you’ve got a better chance of hitting.

As the chart at right shows, all four AFC South teams fall below the league average of 35.1: The Texans are at 35.4, the Jaguars 38.1, the Titans 39.3 and the Colts 46.8.

The Texans and Colts clearly suffer from losing Williams and Manning. The Jaguars have only four home-grown first-rounders on their team after a bunch of busts. The Titans' number inflates because Adam Jones and Vince Young didn’t stick around. The Colts have been consistently good, so they’ve consistently drafted late. Their averages are about to rise.

As the chart below shows, the top 10 highest-drafted players still in the AFC South average a draft spot of 11.1. The only division whose top 10 remaining home-grown draft picks were selected at a worse average position is the NFC East (13.9).

Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Info limited his search to the average draft position of first-rounders remaining with the team that drafted them (chart at right). This seems less telling to me as you eliminate first-rounders who busted, and first-rounders who have left.

Buffalo’s the high at 7.7, the Giants are the low at 25.2.

Jacksonville comes in at 14.0, Houston at 15.0, Tennessee at 19.4 and Indianapolis at 24.2.

Here are the top draft guys in the division now, pending the Colts' pick at No. 1, and the Jaguars' pick at No. 7.

• Texans receiver Andre Johnson, third overall
• Titans quarterback Jake Locker, eighth
• Jaguars left tackle Eugene Monroe, eighth
• Jaguars defensive tackle Tyson Alualu, 10th
• Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert, 10th
• Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney, 11th
• Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, 11th
• Texans inside linebacker Brian Cushing, 15th
• Titans defensive end Derrick Morgan, 16th
• Titans safety Michael Griffin, 19th

Well, they gave it a shot.

The Tennessee Titans lost out in the Peyton Manning sweepstakes.

It would be great if the Titans could now return to the plan formulated before owner Bud Adams forced a detour into the quarterback market. But many pieces of the plan have evaporated.

They wouldn't have matched the kind of money the Buffalo Bills will pay defensive end Mario Williams. They watched John Abraham return to Atlanta. Centers Scott Wells and Chris Myers are off the market.

Now, they should be players for Kamerion Wimbley. They need to gauge what's going on with Dwight Freeney. They need to seek any sort of viable pass-rusher.

They've added guard Steve Hutchinson, who will help Chris Johnson just as much with Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker going forward as he could have helped Manning.

I'm not sure the Titans will find the pass-rusher they desperately need in remaining free agency or the draft, but they'll give it their best shot.

As for Hasselbeck, the presumptive opening day starter: He's a big boy. He understood that Bud Adams wanted Manning. He understands who Manning is. The team kept him in the loop.

It didn't make a change, so things revert. I don't think he was insulted, not in any way that would linger or be an issue going forward.

Yes, the owner and the city are now dealing with disappointment. But just a couple of weeks ago, Manning wasn't a real possibility for the franchise. Then hopes were higher than the Music City's Batman Building. Now he is a dream that flamed out.

Life goes on.

The Titans would have been better with him.

They may still be able to challenge for the division without him.

At the news conference making Peyton Manning’s release official, Colts owner Jim Irsay indicated more roster moves were pending.

They came down Friday, and the remaining roster is a barren landscape.

Gone are halfback Joseph Addai, tight end Dallas Clark, safety Melvin Bullitt, linebacker Gary Brackett, and quarterback Curtis Painter.

All but Painter are proven players who played important roles in the system the team run under the team’s top executive, Bill Polian, and coaches Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell.

Those three powers are gone, and new GM Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano are starting with a virtual clean slate.

Addai is not the type of back the team will want as it looks to get bigger and more powerful. Clark, Bullitt and Brackett are officially injury-prone and aging.

Some of these moves bring accelerated cap hits, and might cost more than the significant salaries the players were scheduled to make will save.

But in a year, the team should be in much better financial shape -- and be adding instead of subtracting.

The next big question is defensive end Dwight Freeney, who's due $14 million this season and carries a $19 million cap number.

Peyton Manning may not be the only superstar mainstay the Indianapolis Colts can no longer afford. Adam Schefter is reporting that the Colts are entertaining trade offers for defensive end Dwight Freeney, one of the dominant NFL pass-rushers of the past half-decade. It's not a slam-dunk that they can deal Freeney, as he's 32 years old and scheduled to make about $14 million this year. But he's a big enough name that it's worth imagining whether he'd fit with the teams about which we care.

Freeney is a 4-3 defensive end, and the only two teams in the NFC East that play 4-3 defenses are set at defensive end. Sure, if the New York Giants traded Osi Umenyiora, they might look to replace him, but they have their own salary-cap issues and it's unlikely they'd look for an expensive 32-year-old replacement when they could just slide Mathias Kiwanuka back up front to supplement Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. The Philadelphia Eagles start Trent Cole and Jason Babin at end and have some depth, including the ability to play defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins there. The Eagles' needs on defense are at linebacker and safety, and maybe in the middle of the line.

The Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys are 3-4 defense teams, and the Redskins like their young outside linebacker pass-rush duo of Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo. That leaves Dallas, which needs pass-rush help but may not be a fit. I doubt it's reasonable to acquire Freeney in the hopes of making him either a 3-4 defensive end or a standup outside linebacker. Guys have done it, but at this point in Freeney's career it's hard to know whether he could make the transition. Plus, the Cowboys just franchised outside linebacker Anthony Spencer, which likely limits their ability to pursue expensive pass-rushers on the free agent or trade market.

So maybe Dallas kicks the tires on Freeney if they have some creative idea about how to use him, but the likelihood is that the Colts don't have an NFC East suitor for him.

Never mind Mario Williams.

If the Colts are taking calls and accepting trade offers for Dwight Freeney, the Titans should pick up the phone.

He’s 32, and that can be scary. But the guy is a supreme pass-rusher.

Tennessee GM Ruston Webster has spoken of the need for a guy with special pass-rushing skills and an understanding he might need to overpay for one. Williams has those skills, too, of course -- but he’s younger and bigger, and he’ll demand a bigger contract and a different kind of competition for his services. He also has at least a bit of a durability question.

Because this could be a precursor to a release, start by offering your second-round pick. But ask the Colts not make a move without checking in. Pray they don’t care about dealing him in the division.

Get permission to negotiate with him in advance of the swap, and draw up a three- or four-year deal for him.

Then, as you play the game, be willing to give up No. 20 this year -- or your first-round pick next season, if you’re certain you will be better and it will be a worse pick.

Freeney is worth the 20th pick and big money, provided you can strike a contract deal.

That’s a move that would amount to the Titans saying they are about right now, not 2014. That’s when a first-round defensive end picked at the end of April will likely be ready to be a consistent factor – if he emerges as a top-level pass-rusher at all.

This is not a great defensive end class.

The odds are against getting an immediate impact rusher at No. 20.

Meanwhile Freeney is a matchup nightmare, whose spin move and quickness are incredibly difficult to slow. He’ll always draw a double, making life easier on everyone on the line.

And the pressure he brings will make each of the other 10 guys on the field better.

Be bold. Back of the get-bigger philosophy for this guy. Get on the phone.