NFL Nation: Greg Jennings

It's early in the offseason. But from the looks of it, the Miami Dolphins want to run an up-tempo offense under first-year head coach Joe Philbin.

The former offensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers is known for putting pressure on defenses. Green Bay was as good as anyone in dictating tempo. Last year the Packers were third in total offense (405.1 yards per game) and first in scoring (35 points per game).

But can Philbin's philosophy work in Miami?

The key to Philbin's first year will be quickly learning and knowing his personnel. New coaches often make the mistake of assuming their system and concepts are one size fits all.

Miami quarterbacks Matt Moore or David Garrard certainly isn't Aaron Rodgers. Dolphins receiver Brian Hartline is not Greg Jennings, and tight end Anthony Fasano is not comparable to Packers tight end Jermichael Finley.

The Dolphins have uncertainty at quarterback and the worst group of receivers in the division. Going up-tempo has its risks. Miami could face plenty of three-and-outs, which would put a lot of pressure on its defense.

Philbin and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman need to be careful about this while installing their new West Coast offense. Green Bay's strengths under Philbin were the quarterback and passing game. It's much easier to go up-tempo when you have a Pro Bowl and Super Bowl-winning quarterback throwing to stud receivers and tight ends.

Miami doesn't have that on its roster this year. The Dolphins' strength is their running game behind their offensive line and 1,000-yard rusher Reggie Bush. It would be wise for Miami's coaching staff to keep that in mind.
Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.

Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.

Run, run, run.

And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.

The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.

St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).

NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.

Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.

The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).

San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).

The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.

And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.
By this point, the Green Bay Packers' quiet approach to veteran free agency should surprise no one. We've had endless debates about the pros and cons of their philosophy, but in the spring of 2012, I think we should all have a clear understanding of the "why."

In the next 12 months or so, the Packers will face contract negotiations with three of the best players at their positions in the NFL. Receiver Greg Jennings is entering the final year of his contract, linebacker Clay Matthews has two years remaining on his rookie deal, and there is a general understanding that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has outperformed the contract he signed shortly after taking over as the Packers' starter in 2008.

Free agent activity this week has offered us a peak at the numbers the Packers likely will hear, and to no surprise, they're going to be high. Let's start with Jennings, who has to be smiling ear-to-ear after watching the money thrown at receivers this week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers set the market for the top receiver available by signing Vincent Jackson to a five-year, $55 million deal with $26 million guaranteed. If Jennings were to hit the open market in 2013, he could reasonably expect Jackson's deal to serve as a baseline for negotiations.

Both players have been fortunate enough to play with elite quarterbacks and in steady passing offenses. As the chart shows, Jennings is a bit younger than Jackson, and has produced at a much higher rate over his career.

We'll set aside the $132 million contract of Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, as well as the $120 million deal Larry Fitzgerald signed last summer with the Arizona Cardinals. Both deals were inflated by unique forms of leverage that Jennings won't have access to.

Rodgers, meanwhile, is the reigning MVP and could expect a contract that comes close to the $18 million annual average the game's top quarterbacks -- including Tom Brady and Peyton Manning -- have received in recent deals. Ongoing negotiations between Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints could raise that level, but Brees has the leverage of an expired contract.

Regardless, you can do the math. Rodgers said in November that he wants his next contract to be his last. If the Packers want to sign Rodgers to a new, say, seven-year deal, the total value could surpass $125 million. Nothing crazy there when it comes to quarterback salaries.

Of the three, Matthews might be the most difficult situation to assess. His sack total fell from 13.5 in 2010 to six in 2011, but it's fair to consider him one of the NFL's better pass-rushers. The top available pass-rusher on the market this spring is defensive end/linebacker Mario Williams, who has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Buffalo Bills for $100 million over six years, with $50 million guaranteed.

So we can be conservative and suggest that the combined contracts of Jennings, Rodgers and Matthews could surpass $200 million. That should give you 200 million reasons why the Packers are laying low, at least at the moment.
We're going to get some mileage out of the research I did, and had forwarded to me, for our 2011 All-NFC North team. The first installment is left over from the debate that ultimately led me to choose Green Bay Packers receiver Jordy Nelson over the Minnesota Vikings' Percy Harvin.

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Percy  Harvin
Icon SMIPercy Harvin can do plenty of things on the field, as long as the Vikings have him on the field.
I checked out their playing time as part of comparing their production. As it turned out, Nelson and Harvin were on the field for almost exactly the same amount of time. Nelson played 609 snaps and Harvin 605. (All numbers in this post exclude penalties, which means they vary slightly from the figures we've used during the season.) The percentages of their team's total snaps were close as well: 58.9 for Nelson and 58.4 for Harvin.

That makes sense for Nelson, who was part of the NFL's deepest receiving corps. But I have a hard time understanding how Harvin -- by far the Vikings' best receiver in 2011 and one of their few playmakers -- was on the sideline for more than 40 percent of a mostly punchless team's snaps.

Across the NFL, 54 receivers played a higher percentage of their team's snaps than Harvin did. That includes teammate Devin Aromashodu, who eventually stepped into the starting lineup after Bernard Berrian's departure and Michael Jenkins' injury. Aromashodu caught 26 passes while playing on 674 snaps, 69 more than Harvin. (Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe led Vikings pass-catchers by playing 76.1 percent of the team's snaps.)

I think we all assumed that Harvin would be the Vikings' No. 1 receiver, and it was immediately surprising when he played about half of the snaps in the Vikings' first two games. At the time, coach Leslie Frazier said: "We have certain packages where we want to feature him, and not necessarily overuse him, but use him to help our football team."

Many of us dropped the issue given Harvin's season-long productivity, but in the end the Vikings finished the season with the NFL's fifth-fewest passing yards while their best receiver was on the sideline for 41.6 percent of their plays. That's hard to defend.

On the other hand, it's possible the Vikings believed Harvin would be more effective with managed snaps. He did, after all, catch a career-high 87 passes while rushing for 345 yards out of the backfield. The Vikings also had him as their primary kickoff returner on 30 of the kickoffs they faced.

Frazier denied during the season that his playing-time plan for Harvin was related to his migraine history, but it's worth noting that Harvin had no reported issues this season. Did the limited contact contribute to that? Assuming Frazier was being truthful, the two events were coincidental.

Regardless, in the big picture Harvin is too young to be on a pitch count. He won't turn 24 until May. It's true that he was managing a rib injury late in the season, but that doesn't account for 431 plays on the sideline. There is every reason to believe that Harvin could and should play at least as much as the No. 1 or No. 2 receivers on other teams.

For context, here are the NFC North receivers who played a higher percentage of snaps than Harvin in 2011:
Consider that Jennings played more snaps in 12 1/2 games before suffering a knee injury than Harvin did in 16. In the end, Harvin had the best year of his career when playing limited snaps. The Vikings must spend part of this offseason deciding if that was the reason, or if they artificially capped his production by overcompensating on his playing time.
Calvin Johnson and Aaron RodgersGetty ImagesCalvin Johnson, left, and Aaron Rodgers were easy picks for the All-NFC North team.
It took longer than expected. Preliminary decisions were questioned. Debates extended into the wee hours. We went through a first draft, then a second and even a third. Countless observers were consulted. It wasn't until I had a full week to mull the 2011 All-NFC North team that I was prepared to make the big reveal.

Via Twitter, @jpberthiaume asked: "Do people really care about these 'teams?'" I guess it's a fair point. I doubt few, if any, of the players listed in the chart wrote a fifth-grade essay about their plans to one day make the All-NFC North team on ESPN.com, even if it was only because the NFC North hadn't yet been formed in those days and ESPN.com was operating out of a Bristol-based closet.

So I'll let you be the judge. This is annually a fun exercise, even if it doesn't lead to a deep understanding of the human condition or even reveal any breakthroughs about the just-completed season. If nothing else, it offers us a blank template to recognize the best-performing players in the division without the hindrance of the politics and reputation.

Some notes on some of the tight decisions, for which I seriously received input from multiple angles:
  • One of the fiercest debates came at wide receiver. Everyone agreed that the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson deserved one spot, but there was a split about the other two. Did the Green Bay Packers' Greg Jennings, who missed three games because of a knee injury, deserve an automatic bid? And if he did, should the Packers' Jordy Nelson or the Minnesota Vikings' Percy Harvin get the third spot? I thought Jennings' 67 receptions, 949 yards and nine touchdowns in 13 games merited a spot. And ultimately I chose Nelson over Harvin. I realize Harvin caught 87 passes in a punchless offense and added 345 rushing yards to his total, but in the end I couldn't overlook a player who scored more touchdowns (15) than all but four players in the NFL this season. Plus, as Hatterbot pointed out: "Rushing yards don't count in the WR category."
  • I went with the Lions' Rob Sims at left guard in part on the advice of John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who noted that Sims was the only NFC North left guard to play the position for 16 games this season. Sims also had the best pass-sack ratio (19.7 passes per sack) of the group, based on video study.
  • There is no doubt that the Lions' Brandon Pettigrew (83 catches) had a more productive season then the Packers' Jermichael Finley (55). But the Lions often used Pettigrew as a substitute for their punchless running game, and that's why his per-catch average of 9.4 yards was lower than any other tight end with at least 30 catches. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the average pass to Pettigrew this season traveled 6.5 yards in the air. The average pass to Finley traveled 11.4 yards. Finley caught five passes of at least 30 yards. Pettigrew's longest was 27. Both players had their share of drops, combining for a total of 15, but I thought Finley made a bigger impact on his catches than Pettigrew did.
  • I really debated the Bears' Julius Peppers and the Lions' Cliff Avril at defensive end. Avril (11.5) had a half-sack more than Peppers (11) and forced twice as many fumbles. But one of the advantages we have on this team is investigating beyond the conventional numbers. Our friends at Pro Football Focus (PFF) credited Peppers with 53 quarterback pressures, the second-highest total in the NFL. Avril ranked No. 8 with 37, but in a close race, I chose the maximum mumber of plays impacted over Avril's slight edge in "playmaking" statistics.
  • I used a similar approach in choosing the Vikings' Kevin Williams and the Lions' Ndamukong Suh as my defensive tackles. It's true that the Bears' Henry Melton led the NFC North's defensive tackles with seven pressures, but PFF had Suh with 27 quarterback pressures, an NFL high for an interior lineman. Williams tied for No. 3 with 25. Melton wasn't that far behind at 23, but I also took into account that the Bears nearly benched him for inconsistency at one point in the season. (Coach Lovie Smith in November: "He hasn't showed up as much. Whether teams have adjusted to him or whatever, we need to get more production from him because he's capable of it." Meanwhile, I thought Packers defensive lineman B.J. Raji took a step backward in 2011. PFF credited him with only 10 stops (the cumulative number of plays made that constitute an offensive failure) in 842 snaps.
  • If you want to say I chickened out at linebacker, go ahead. I originally left open the middle and one of the outside spots, but in the end I went with our division standbys: Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. For starters, Briggs was one of six non-offensive linemen to play 100 percent of his team's snaps in the NFL this season. There's something to be said for being available to your team. And while I do think that the Packers' Desmond Bishop and the Lions' Stephen Tulloch had good seasons, I couldn't find a statistic or an opinion that convinced me they were better than Urlacher. Someday, there will be turnover among NFC North linebackers. But it didn't happen this season.
  • Safety play was poor throughout the NFC North, so I'm not at all ashamed to have chosen a third cornerback to replace one of the safeties on this team. It came down to the Lions' Chris Houston and the Packers' Tramon Williams. Both had their ups and downs in coverage. Houston had five interceptions and two touchdowns in 14 games, while Williams had four interceptions and one touchdown in 15 games. In the end, I chose Williams because I think it was pretty clear he was pushing through a really limiting shoulder injury for much of the first half of the season.
  • I chose the Packers' specialists, kicker Mason Crosby and punter Tim Masthay. Crosby converted 24 of 28 kicks, including a 58-yarder, and ranked third in the NFL with 49 touchbacks. Masthay downed a division-high 23 punts inside the 20-yard line despite a division-low 55 punts.
  • I mistakenly left off a coverage specialist from our original post. There should be no debating that the Bears' Corey Graham deserves that spot.
  • Go ahead. Rip away....
Coming later this week: Some supplementary NFC North awards, including our top coordinators.

Packers' offense drops the ball

January, 15, 2012
Jan 15
11:22
PM ET
Aaron RodgersAP Photo/Jeffrey PhelpsAaron Rodgers and Green Bay's offense could not get things going against the Giants.
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- The first inkling came on the Green Bay Packers' seventh offensive play Sunday. On third down from the New York Giants' 29-yard line, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers did what he often does when a play breaks down. So did receiver Greg Jennings.

Rodgers stepped up in the pocket to escape Jacquian Williams, the Giants' blitzing linebacker. Jennings, in turn, took off toward the end zone. The Giants' secondary lost track of him. Jennings turned to look for the ball over his left shoulder. Rodgers threw it over his right. The ball fell incomplete at the 4-yard line, and the Packers settled for a field goal.

At that moment, I turned to someone in the press box and remarked how rarely we have seen the Packers miss easy touchdown opportunities during this historic season.

The Packers' season ended Sunday with an offensive thud, a 37-20 loss to the New York Giants that was wholly out of character and inexplicable on most every level. And I'm sure as you review how the Packers reached such an unsatisfying conclusion, some will recite a well-rehearsed litany of their season-long defensive problems. A few of you will wonder why Lambeau Field is no longer the greatest home-field advantage in NFL postseason history; the Packers are 2-4 in their past six playoff games there after winning 13 consecutively from 1939-2001.

But here, as they say, is the stone-cold truth: One of the most explosive and efficient offenses in NFL history -- the one that almost single-handedly was responsible for a 15-1 regular-season record -- stumbled at the starting line and never regained its footing. Credit goes to the Giants' defense for scheming to take away the deep pass, but independent of that, I think we can agree it's been a while since we've seen the Packers' offense play so poorly. ESPN Stats & Information had it with six drops, tied for the most by any NFL team in a game this season. The Packers committed a season-high four turnovers, including a fumble by Rodgers as he was trying to hit a wide-open Jennings in the third quarter. They had only two plays go for more than 20 yards, a 29-yard run by running back James Starks and a 21-yard pass to receiver Randall Cobb once the game was out of hand.

"This year," receiver Jordy Nelson said, "we've made the easy plays into big plays. And we didn't make the easy plays today. That's what hurts you. Every once in a while, you'll get a big shot, but if you can't make the easy plays, you aren't going to make any plays."

I couldn't have put it better if I tried. Why that happened, however, will be a mental mystery that will haunt the Packers all offseason.

How can you explain how a team that dropped 30 passes in 16 regular season games dropped six in one playoff game? What causes a team to commit four turnovers in one game when it had only 14 in the regular season? What made fullback John Kuhn fumble for the first time in his career? Why didn't Rodgers slide away from Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora, as he usually does, on his third-quarter miscue?

"I ain't God, so I can't tell you why we were out of synch," tight end Jermichael Finley said. "We just didn't play our style of ball."

It would be easy to say the Packers were rusty after a playoff bye week. And I guess we should note that Rodgers hadn't played since Dec. 25 and Jennings since Dec. 11. Is it that simple? Were the Packers rusty? Perhaps, but at some point, you must wonder if we were holding them to an impossible standard.

What Sunday's mistakes told me was how much the Packers grew to depend on elite -- and not just great -- play from their offense on a weekly basis. The Packers were an elite team as long as their offense scored at a rate that left them with the second-highest point total in NFL history. But as soon as a few mistakes piled up, they got wiped out of the playoffs by a team that won its division with a 9-7 record.

"I felt like we had a pretty good rhythm," Rodgers said. "We moved the ball pretty effectively. We just had some drops and some uncharacteristic turnovers. … We just had some chances and didn't make the most of them."

None was more critical than Rodgers' misfire to Finley on third-and-five from the Giants' 39-yard line in the third quarter. With the Packers trailing 20-13, Finley ran a slant route and was wide open for a first down at about the 25-yard line. Rodgers threw him a fastball that sailed wide and off Finley's fingertips. Rodgers was sacked on fourth down, and the Packers never had an opportunity to tie the game again.

"I missed my spot a little bit," Rodgers said. Finley added: "It was out in front of me. I put one hand out. I tried to get it. I have to catch that ball …. It was one of those plays I couldn't make."

Those are the types of plays we grew accustomed to the Packers making this season, be it a sharp throw-and-catch on third-and-5 or an ad lib that leads to Jennings getting wide open in the end zone. To be sure, the Giants ran an aggressive scheme designed to take away their deep pass with "off" coverage but also flood intermediate routes with maximum coverage. Only eight of Rodgers' 46 attempts traveled 15 yards in the air, and he completed only two of them.

But regardless of the situation this season, the Packers have relied on their offense to bail them out. Even as they jogged off the field trailing 20-10 at halftime, there was no sense of panic.

"We thought going in with the way we'd be scoring on offense, the game wasn't that far away from us," said nose tackle B.J. Raji.

For the first time all season, however, the Packers offense dropped the ball -- and the Packers weren't a team equipped to compensate for it. We all know what happened. The Packers will spend the next six months figuring out the how and the why. But in the end, all they'll have to show for one of the greatest regular seasons in team history is one of their most surprising conclusions. Not everyone thought the Packers would repeat as Super Bowl champions, but I'm not sure many thought their offense would bring them down.
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Some thoughts from a stunned Lambeau Field following the Green Bay Packers' 37-20 loss to the New York Giants:

What it means: The Packers saved their worst outing of the season for the playoffs, and it led to an unexpected and deeply disappointing end to a 15-1 season. The Giants outplayed them in every way imaginable, and the Packers didn't look much like a team that had won 21 of its previous 22. The result detracted again from the postseason mystique of Lambeau Field, where the Packers have now lost four of their past six playoff games. Two of those losses have been to the Giants, who also ended the Packers' 2007 season in the NFC Championship Game.

Rare mistakes: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers said during the week that he didn't believe in the concept of "rust" for a team coming off a playoff bye. Call it whatever you want. The Packers made mistakes that simply didn't happen during the regular season. Fullback John Kuhn lost the first fumble of his career. Rodgers missed receiver Greg Jennings for what would have been an easy touchdown in the first quarter. Rodgers also lost a fumble, on a second-quarter sack by Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora, for the first time this season. The normally sure-handed Ryan Grant fumbled for only the second time this season in the fourth quarter. And depending on how tough of a grader you are, the Packers dropped anywhere from four to eight passes. One was a third-quarter pass to Jennings, who had a step on safety Antrel Rolle in single coverage in the end zone.

Defense tightens up: The big fear surrounding the Packers this season was that a hot quarterback would knock them and their porous pass defense out of the playoffs. Things seemed to be headed in that direction after Giants quarterback Eli Manning threw for 274 yards in the first half, capped by a 37-yard pass to receiver Hakeem Nicks on a Hail Mary. But it's going to be tough to affix too much responsibility to the defense for this game. The Packers tightened significantly in the second half, and the Giants didn't have a single first down in the third quarter. Manning threw for 56 yards in the second half. That should have given the Packers' offense enough of an opportunity to even up the game if it was up to it. It wasn't. They couldn't get the ball downfield at all against the Giants defense, and their longest play of the game was a 29-yard run by James Starks in the third quarter.

Key play: Backed by a bit of momentum and hoping to tie the game early in the fourth quarter, the Packers faced a third-and-five at the Giants' 39-yard line. Tight end Jermichael Finley was wide open at about the 25-yard line, but Rodgers' throw was just off his outstretched fingertips. It wasn't immediately clear whether Rodgers overthrew Finley or if Finley stopped his route early. But it was one of the Packers' biggest missed opportunities in this game. Rodgers was sacked on fourth down, and the Giants converted the ensuing possession into a 35-yard field goal to make it a two-score game midway through the fourth quarter.

Injury report: Kuhn didn't return after injuring his right knee in the third quarter.

What's next: The Packers have a young and deep team set up for long-term success. They'll need to address the contract situation of Finley, who is a pending free agent. It will take some time to get over Sunday's disappointment, but the Packers' future should be bright.

Halftime thoughts: Hakeem the dream

January, 15, 2012
Jan 15
6:24
PM ET
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Well, you're all going to want to talk about the call that should have been overturned and wasn't, and I understand being mad. Looking at the replay, I was 100 percent sure Greg Jennings fumbled the ball in the final minutes of the first quarter and that the New York Giants were going to get the ball back in Packers territory with a 10-3 lead. I can't explain why the call wasn't reversed on replay, and I understand that, if the Giants lose, that's what the vast majority of you will want to talk about all week. Maybe all offseason.

But I'd rather talk about Hakeem Nicks, who had five catches for 152 yards and two touchdowns to help the Giants take a 20-10 lead into the half of a playoff game that could send them to the NFC Championship Game. Nicks delivered the Giants' patented long catch-and-run touchdown with a 66-yarder in the first quarter, and he went up to catch Eli Manning's 37-yard Hail Mary as time ran out on the second quarter. Those two plays were the highlights of a dazzling offensive first half in which the Giants outgained the Packers 311 to 170 and in which many more good things happened for them than bad.

Even on the call, if you'll allow me to play devil's advocate (since that's part of my job description), the Giants weren't exactly blameless. That drive, you'll remember, started from the 40-yard line after Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes shanked a kickoff out of bounds. And the tackling by the Giants before and after the bad call was worse than the call itself. The Giants had chances to make plays that would have at least limited the damage to a field goal, and they did not.

Besides, to focus on the call would be to ignore the incredible number of things that went right for the Giants in the first half, in spite of their own poor tackling, Tynes' poor kickoff and Tynes' blocked field goal. The Packers' tackling was even worse. The Packers dropped at least four passes. The Giants' defense drastically improved its coverage and tackling in the second quarter, and even seemed to be working on ways to stop Aaron Rodgers from scrambling for third-down pickups against them.

The Giants were 5-for-9 on third down and possessed the ball for 16:38. If the defense can continue the improvement it showed in the second quarter, and if they can get any kind of running game going at all (23 of their 37 yards came on an Ahmad Bradshaw run just before the half-ending Hail Mary), they have a pretty good chance to cash this in and earn a trip to San Francisco to play the 49ers next week for a shot at the Super Bowl.

Rodgers and the Packers get the ball back to start the second half, so we'll see if the Giants can keep the momentum on their side.
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- The New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers are about as healthy as they can be for Sunday's divisional round playoff game. The Giants' inactives list is the same as it was last week, and the Packers have only one injured player, linebacker Robert Francois, who will be inactive.

Active for the Packers will be wide receiver Greg Jennings, who missed the past couple of games of the regular season due to injury, and starting tackles Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga, who also battled injuries during the final few weeks of the season. It will be interesting to see how healthy the tackles are and how they hold up against the Giants' edge pass-rushers.

Active for the Giants will be wide receiver Mario Manningham, who had struggled with knee problems in the second half of the season but was active for the first playoff game last week, and cornerback Aaron Ross and running back D.J. Ware, each of whom suffered concussions in last week's victory over the Falcons. Linebacker Mark Herzlich, still out with an ankle injury, is the injured player on the inactive list.

Full list of inactives:

GIANTS

WR Ramses Barden

RB Da'Rel Scott

LB Mark Herzlich

OL Jim Cordle

DE Justin Trattou

DT Jimmy Kennedy

OL James Brewer

PACKERS

QB Graham Harrell

CB Davon House

LB Rob Francois

OL Herb Taylor

TE D.J. Williams

DE Howard Green

LB Vic So'oto

THE FOX RIVER VALLEY -- Good morning to everyone from the general vicinity of Green Bay and Lambeau Field, where the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants will play the NFL's final divisional playoff game of the weekend later Sunday afternoon. We have plenty to discuss today, starting with news that Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin appears likely to be at the game in some capacity.

Philbin was away from the team all week, as you know, after the death of his son, Michael. The funeral was Friday. Packers coach Mike McCarthy told Lesley Visser of CBS Sports that Philbin would be at Sunday's game "to participate."

Philbin typically works from the coaches' booth during games.

As we discussed Friday, I'm not sure whether the Packers will get a motivational boost from Philbin's tragedy, if it served as a distraction or if it will have no bearing on the outcome of Sunday's game. I'm guessing it's the final option, but we don't really have a precedent to work off of here.

A number of Packers players have said this game would be dedicated to the Philbin family. Saturday afternoon, Packers receiver Greg Jennings tweeted: "Game of emotions on Sun. Tweeps, need u all loud as u ever been when we take the field. Make this ur challenge. #BeGreat 4 coach Joe & his fam!"
I'm not doing any more work Friday. Leaving for Green Bay in the morning, so I'm going to spend the rest of the day and night with my family. So I was going to leave you with a post on the injury and weather reports for the game, but there's a bit of a nothing-to-see-here element to both.

The Giants are listing linebacker Mark Herzlich as out and listing everyone else -- including running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and D.J. Ware and cornerback Aaron Ross -- as probable or not listing them at all. The Packers are listing both of their starting tackles, Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga, as well as wide receiver Greg Jennings, as probable. The only Packer who's on the injury report and isn't probable is linebacker Robert Francois, who's doubtful with a hamstring injury. So basically, if you were wondering about anyone who's been banged up, the answer is that they'll almost certainly play.

As for the weather ... sorry to disappoint those who want a snowy game. But while it has snowed a great deal in Green Bay the past couple of days and it appears snow will be on the ground when we arrive tomorrow, the forecast for Sunday continues to call for a relatively balmy high temperature of 32 degrees and no precipitation.

So, with no real news to report on injuries or weather, I leave you with the Giants offensive line's response to being called "not the toughest" by Packers defensive lineman B.J. Raji. Giants guard Chris Snee, a Boston College guy like Raji, made some cracks about how it kept him up all night, then delivered the discount doublecheck:
"All kidding aside, no one cares what B.J. had to say," Snee said. "Sometimes when you're young and you make it to a Pro Bowl and then to a Super Bowl and you have your own commercial, you feel the need to talk. We'll do our talking on Sunday."

Good idea. I'll do mine from the press box. Enjoy your Friday evening and your Saturday of NFL playoff football. Talk to you from Wisconsin.
We spent a fair amount of time during the regular season tracking how the Green Bay Packers utilized and implemented their stable of offensive skill players. As their postseason begins, now seems a good time to look at a few aspects and consider how they might impact Sunday's matchup against the New York Giants. Our friends at ESPN Stats & Information have been particularly helpful in that regard.

First, I want to pass along the final playing time numbers for the Packers' top six pass-catchers, figures that evened out a bit after receiver Greg Jennings sprained his knee and missed the last three games. Tight end Jermichael Finley was on the field more than any other Packers skill player, but Jennings' snap count was on the same level before his injury. Otherwise, the Packers distributed time on merit in a way that probably could have been predicted in the preseason.

(Hat tip to Katie Sharp for mining the database to find those numbers).

Rotating six skill-position players so aggressively led the Packers to use 237 different personnel groupings this season among their skill players, according to video tracking by John McTigue. That counts receivers, running backs and tight ends but doesn't reflect shuffling on the offensive line or at quarterback.

That total was the third highest number in the NFL. For context, consider that the Oakland Raiders led the NFL with 290 combinations and the Baltimore Ravens were last with 81. The league average was 157.

The Packers used so many different combinations that their most popular group was on the field together for only 117 plays, or 10.8 percent of their total offensive snaps. For those interested, that group included Jennings, Finley, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and James Starks.

The second chart breaks down the number of personnel groupings the Packers used in each game, from a high of 41 in a Week 5 victory over the Atlanta Falcons to a low of 23 in their relatively meaningless Week 17 victory over the Detroit Lions. So what does all of this mean, both in the big picture and for Sunday's game? A few thoughts:
  • The Giants didn't face many teams this season that mix things up the way the Packers do. When they did, they did not fare well. The Giants were 1-5 in games during the regular season when teams used 24 or more offensive personnel combinations. The Packers used a season high of 39 against them in a 38-35 victory in Week 13.
  • One advantage of changing personnel groupings is that it requires a longer scouting report and more studying of tendencies. Consider it this way: At any given time, the Packers could put one of 13 players on the field who has scored an offensive touchdown this season, including defensive lineman B.J. Raji but not backup quarterback Matt Flynn. That's a lot to think about.
  • To me, this is just another example of the innovation and flexibility coach Mike McCarthy wraps into his offense. Remember, last year at this time, we were discussing the wide spectrum he had established between five-receiver sets on one side and a heavy wishbone formation on the other.
  • It's amazing when you realize that Nelson caught the third-most touchdown passes in the NFL this season (15) while playing less than 60 percent of his team's offensive snaps.

We know that Jennings will be on the field a lot Sunday. The same goes for Finley and probably Nelson. After that, and in what combination, is anyone's guess. Which is just the way the Packers like it.

Quick Take: Giants at Packers

January, 8, 2012
Jan 8
4:36
PM ET
Three things to know about next Sunday's New York Giants-Green Bay Packers divisional playoff game:

1. Memories: It's inevitable. Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning, Lawrence Tynes, Corey Webster and their Giants teammates will all return to the scene of one of the Packers' most disappointing games ever: an overtime loss in the 2007 NFC Championship Game. On a minus-3 degree day at Lambeau Field, quarterback Brett Favre threw an overtime interception to Webster on what turned out to be Favre's final pass as a Packers player. Tynes kicked a 43-yard field goal to pull off the upset and deny the Packers a chance to play in the Super Bowl. Sunday's rematch will be the Packers' first home playoff game since that loss. For those interested, long-range forecasts are calling for a high of 21 degrees. Here's what receiver Greg Jennings tweeted Sunday afternoon: "The team that kept us from our potential Super Bowl in 08 is back on OUR turf now. Trust me, we haven't forgotten. Here. We...GoPackGo! #BeGreat"

2. Close as ...: The Giants might have given the Packers their second-toughest game of the regular season, getting 347 yards from Manning in a 38-35 Packers victory. It wasn't until quarterback Aaron Rodgers led the Packers on a 69-yard drive over the final 58 seconds that the Packers were able to secure a victory with the decisive Mason Crosby field goal. The Giants rolled up 447 total yards despite holding the ball for only 26 minutes, 47 seconds, getting big chunks along the way and averaging 8.7 yards per play. The Packers were the better team that day, but the teams were evenly matched for most of it.

3. Theory tested: If they are to win the Super Bowl again, the Packers quite possibly will have to defeat a Pro Bowl quarterback every step along the way. That begins with Manning and could move next to the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees. That will be the ultimate test of a Packers defense that gave up more passing yards than any team in NFL history during the regular season. The Packers got by because they also led the league in interceptions, but the concern during the regular season was that an elite quarterback could roll up the yards, avoid the interceptions and knock the Packers out of the playoffs. Manning is first up.

Packers regular-season wrap-up

January, 4, 2012
Jan 4
1:00
PM ET
» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending.

Final Power Ranking: 1
Preseason Power Ranking: 1

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Jordy Nelson
Matthew Stockman/Getty ImagesJordy Nelson became one of Aaron Rodgers' favorite targets in an offense filled with many weapons.
Biggest surprise: Wide receiver Jordy Nelson had a standout performance in Super Bowl XLV, but few were expecting the kind of breakthrough season he produced in 2011. On a team stocked with elite talent from receiver Greg Jennings to tight end Jermichael Finley, it was Nelson who led the Packers with 68 receptions for 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns. Only two players in the league, Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots and Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions, caught more touchdowns. Nelson continually got behind defenses who either misjudged his speed or were drawn elsewhere. He deftly handled a midseason discussion about race and his position, and ultimately proved to be one of the league's top downfield threats. He averaged 18.6 yards per catch, and his touchdowns included distances of 93, 84, 58, 55, 50 and 40 yards.

Biggest disappointment: There aren't many options for a team that won 15 regular season games, the sixth time that's happened in NFL history. But few people in the Packers organization were thrilled by the performance of the pass defense, which allowed an NFL-record 4,796 yards and pushed the Packers to the bottom of the NFL in total defense. (They ranked No. 5 in 2010.) It didn't cost them a game in 2011, partly because they mitigated the yardage total with a league-high 31 interceptions and partly because their offense was one of the league's best. The big concern, of course, is that a hot quarterback could capitalize in the playoffs and end the Packers' dreams for a repeat Super Bowl.

Biggest need: The Packers tried to piece together their right outside linebacker position this year with 2010 street free agent Erik Walden, second-year player Frank Zombo and reserve Brad Jones. Walden didn't make much of an impact as a pass rusher, managing three sacks in 16 games. Zombo was hurt most of the season and Jones was ineffective. Previously, we figured the Packers could skate by as long as All-Pro Clay Matthews was on the opposite side. But offensive attention shifted to Matthews this season, limiting him to six sacks, and no one picked up the slack. The Packers finished tied for No. 27 in the NFL in sacks (27) and it might be time to devote another high draft choice to the position to provide a pass-rushing alternative.

Team MVP: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the favorite to win the NFL MVP, making him a pretty decent candidate for the team award. In a year of obscene yardage totals from Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford, Rodgers was the league's most efficient and least mistake-prone quarterback. He set an NFL record with a 122.5 passer rating and became the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for at least 4,000 yards while also throwing six or less interceptions. It's true that the Packers' offense continued humming along when Rodgers sat out the regular season finale, but those who saw large chunks of his season know that he was operating on a never-before-seen plane for the first two-thirds of the season. Rodgers has perfected the art of the back-shoulder throw and helped deliver the phrase "throwing open" into the public NFL lexicon.

Penalty watch: We could devote an entire post to the milestones surpassed and records set for this team. Two that didn't get nearly enough attention: 14 turnovers and 76 penalties, both of which qualified as the lowest figures in a 16-game season in franchise history. Penalties don't always correlate with wins and losses. But viewed together, we can say with some confidence that the Packers didn't make many mistakes this season.

Wrap-up: Packers 45, Lions 41

January, 1, 2012
Jan 1
5:32
PM ET

A few thoughts on as wild of a "meaningless" Week 17 game as you'll possibly see.

What it means: The Green Bay Packers improved to 15-1, becoming the sixth team in NFL history to win at least 15 regular-season games in one season, despite deactivating three of their most prominent players (quarterback Aaron Rodgers, cornerback Charles Woodson and linebacker Clay Matthews). They also used the game to experiment on offensive line combinations. Amazingly, the Packers were able to protect some key players while still riding momentum into the playoffs. The Lions missed a chance to lock up the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs, leaving their positioning at the mercy of the Atlanta Falcons. The Lions will be the No. 6 seed, and travel to the New Orleans Saints, if the Falcons defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons were leading 35-0 in the second quarter at last check. The Lions have now lost 20 consecutive games in the state of Wisconsin.

Air Supply: On a windy and snowy day at Lambeau Field, both starting quarterbacks set franchise records for passing yards in a game. Backup Matt Flynn made the most of his opportunity to start, throwing for 480 yards and six touchdowns, also a team record. The Lions' Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards, bringing their combined total to an even 1,000 in the game, and tied his team record with five touchdown passes. The Madden-like final statistics also included 244 receiving yards for Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, 116 for tight end Brandon Pettigrew and 162 for Packers receiver Jordy Nelson.

FlynnWatch: I'm not sure what else Flynn could have done to audition for a starting job elsewhere next season. The Packers used two different left tackles, Chad Clifton and Marshall Newhouse, and didn't have receiver Greg Jennings or running back James Starks for this game. But Flynn smartly used the remaining talent the Packers surrounded him with, most notably Nelson (three touchdowns). Perhaps most impressive to teams considering him in free agency this spring, Flynn also led the Packers to 14 points in the final eight minutes, 18 seconds of the game, playing as if he was the quarterback fighting to secure a fifth seed.

Official grumbling: Kudos to Lions center Dominic Raiola, who stepped in and calmed down Lions coach Jim Schwartz (a little bit) in the second quarter after a series of poor calls robbed the Lions of both challenge opportunities before halftime. There is little doubt that the Lions were on the short end of both calls that led to challenges, a fumble that was reversed on tight end Tony Scheffler and a fumble by kick returner Stefan Logan. That left the Lions unable to challenge what should have been a touchdown pass to receiver Titus Young, whom officials ruled didn't get both feet down in the end zone when he in fact did. But in the end, it's fair to say the Lions had plenty of opportunities to win the game. I hope no one leaves the Lions locker room blaming those calls for the loss. The Lions had a 41-38 lead with 2:44 remaining, and their defense couldn't slow down a watered-down Packers offense. That's on them. The Packers' winning drive included two third-down conversions, one of which came after defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh jumped offside.

What's next: We'll await the Lions' playoff seed and opponent for next weekend's wild-card game, to be determined later Sunday. The Packers will have a playoff bye week and host a divisional game the weekend of Jan. 14-15.
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