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Our friends at Football Outsiders have reached the NFC North juncture of their annual post-draft needs series for ESPN.com. You'll need an Insider subscription to read the entire file but I can provide you a snippet of the needs that Outsiders' statistical analysis points to for each of our teams.

Chicago Bears
Need: Offensive line
Excerpt: Left tackle J'Marcus Webb "led the league with 15 offensive penalties in 2011."
Seifert comment: We've been through this before. Outsiders suggests the Bears seek a swing tackle via free agency, but indications are that the team envisions 2008 first-round pick Chris Williams in that role.

Detroit Lions
Need: Cornerback
Excerpt: Free-agent acquisition Jacob Lacey "ranked 81st in success rate against the pass last year and 88th in 2010."
Seifert comment: The Lions prioritize the havoc they can create with a dynamic defensive line over whatever shortcomings they might have in the secondary. Lacey will compete with Aaron Berry and perhaps rookie Dwight Bentley for a starting job.

Green Bay Packers
Need: Backup quarterback
Excerpt: "If any injury causes [Aaron] Rodgers to miss action, the Packers are looking at trotting out either super raw seventh-round rookie B.J. Coleman or undrafted and utterly untested third-year man Graham Harrell."
Seifert comment: In 2008, the Packers set a precedent of using an untested backup in Matt Flynn. There isn't league-wide certainty that Harrell is prepared to be a No. 2 in 2012, but the Packers are more likely to use him in that role than sign a veteran free agent.

Minnesota Vikings
Need: Middle linebacker
Excerpt: "There's no evidence suggesting that [Jasper] Brinkley can handle the full slate of middle linebacker duties."
Seifert comment: All indications are that Brinkley will get the first chance to replace E.J. Henderson. There isn't a notable alternative on the roster, but it's a position where a temporary starter could be signed during training camp. But the Vikings are committed to getting younger and Brinkley is 26.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- If the nose tackle and middle linebacker represent the gut of a defense, then it's safe to say the Minnesota Vikings have signed themselves up for plastic surgery this season.

(Too much? I liked it. Come on. Lighten up.)

The takeaway from my time with Vikings coach Leslie Frazier on Wednesday morning was that he will have a new starting nose tackle in 2012 and is close to deciding on his next middle linebacker. Fifth-year player Letroy Guion will replace the released Remi Ayodele at nose tackle, while Frazier indicated that Jasper Brinkley is his top choice to start at middle linebacker.

Both players are longtime backups and draft choices of newly promoted general manager Rick Spielman, and their anticipated ascension is a reasonable illustration of how Spielman hopes to run the franchise.

Guion was a fifth-round pick in 2008 and has started three games over four seasons since then. His newly-prominent role became clear when the Vikings signed him to a three-year contract earlier this month that will pay him $2.5 million. Ayodele was subsequently released.

"We want him to be the starting nose tackle," Frazier said.

Brinkley, meanwhile, was a fifth-round pick a year after the Vikings selected Guion. He was the backup to starter E.J. Henderson in 2009 and 2010, starting six games after Henderson's broken leg in 2009, but missed all of 2011 because of a hip injury.

"We believe he is healthy now," Frazier said. "And he has started for us when E.J. was injured in the past. We think he is capable of doing it. We just haven't had him do it for 16 weeks. But we think he's about ready to take that role. We'll determine that in the weeks and months to come."

Doctors have cleared Brinkley for all football activities, and if there was any hesitation in Frazier's response, it should be attributed to the universal NFL caveat at this time of year. The Vikings have 10 draft picks, including seven of the top 138, and a starting-caliber middle linebacker could be a target.

Absent that event, however, the chances seem high that Brinkley will team with Erin Henderson and Chad Greenway to form the Vikings' 2012 trio of linebackers. During that 2009 stretch, Brinkley proved to be a physical run-stopper who is most likely not going to be on the field in nickel situations.

Again, everything could change after the draft. But regardless of the ingredients, it seems likely the Vikings will have a new defensive gut in 2012.

In which we look ahead to NFC North preseason football over the next two days.

Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Indianapolis Colts
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
Day/Time: Friday/8 p.m. ET
Personnel notes: Coach Mike McCarthy estimated that starters will play midway through the second quarter. Although they could see extra time, it's not expected that McCarthy will bring them out for the third quarter. ... Receiver/returner Randall Cobb (knees) and defensive end Mike Neal (knee) aren't expected to play. Receiver Greg Jennings (knee) could join them on the sideline. Running back James Starks (ankle) and linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) should return from a week off.
Focal point: I'm curious to track how the Packers' offense performs when it is not in the no-huddle. That alignment has given them most of their success in the preseason, but I'm assuming they won't be running it every play during the regular season. From a competition standpoint, it's worth keeping a close eye on how tailback Ryan Grant performs and if Starks picks up where he left off before the ankle injury. Could Starks lay claim to the starting job with a strong showing?

Chicago Bears
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Location: LP Field
Day/Time: Saturday/8 p.m. ET
Personnel notes: Most starters will play at least a half. ... Receiver Sam Hurd (ankle), linebacker Lance Briggs (knee) and defensive tackle Anthony Adams (calf) have been ruled out. Tight end Kellen Davis (back) could miss the game, while cornerback Zack Bowman (concussion) appears likely to resume playing.
Focal point: The Bears' current offensive line configuration could lock itself into a Week 1 assignment with a solid outing that builds off last week's performance against the New York Giants. On the other hand, receiver Roy Williams needs to make a few catches in order to assure the Bears he is worthy of the starting job they handed him in training camp. Like most NFL teams, the Bears would like to see their offense produce a few touchdown drives before the preseason is over. Finally, I would like to see the Bears' defensive line rotation start shaking itself out. It's not clear at this point if they have a legitimate backup defensive end or if any of their two reclamation projects, Vernon Gholston and Amobi Okoye, will provide any help.

Detroit Lions
Opponent: New England Patriots
Location: Ford Field
Day/Time: Saturday/8 p.m. ET
Personnel notes: Starters will play around half of the game... Running back Jahvid Best (concussion) and Maurice Morris (hand) aren't expected to play, so the Lions are likely to start Jerome Harrison. Mike Bell, Aaron Brown and Stefan Logan will be available to rotate in. Defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (shoulder) is a strong candidate to sit out as well.
Focal point: The Lions' uncertain depth at running back will be on full display. By the end of the night, we should have an idea if they have someone capable of carrying a significant load while sharing the job with Best. On the other hand, fans might get their first look at rookie receiver Titus Young. Meanwhile, the countdown continues for the first preseason hit on quarterback Matthew Stafford. He told reporters this week: "You guys can ask all you want. I don't think about it. I just play football and whatever happens, happens."

Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Location: Metrodome
Day/Time: Saturday/8 p.m. ET
Personnel notes: Some starters are expected to play into the third quarter. ... The Vikings have a long injury list. Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe (hamstring), linebacker Heath Farwell (hamstring), linebacker Jasper Brinkley (hip), tailback Toby Gerhart (ankle), defensive tackle Kevin Williams (foot) and cornerback Asher Allen (toe) are among those who won't play.
Focal point: The Vikings' first-team offense has produced three points this preseason and isn't likely to be on the field much in the preseason finale. So Saturday night is their best and last chance to build some momentum for the regular season. The offense hasn't appeared disorganized or confused. It just hasn't had much punch yet and its personality is far from defined. It would also be helpful if rookie Christian Ponder can establish himself as the No. 2 quarterback so the Vikings can free up Joe Webb to focus on the Wildcat and other unique packages.

» NFC High Energy: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

A look at a player who gave his team a significant boost in Week 9.

I'd be OK renaming this award for the Arizona Cardinals' LaRod Stephens-Howling if his name would fit in the headline.

Perhaps we could simply hyphenate the "High Energy" part in his honor.

Stephens-Howling would merit consideration even without the game-breaking kickoff returns he provides on occasion. The second-year running back has been a force on special-teams coverage units, putting his 5-foot-7 frame on the line against much larger men. He's also a threat on offense, having scored on a 30-yard run in Week 8.

A seventh-round draft choice from Pitt in 2009, Stephens-Howling broke a 96-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against Minnesota in Week 9, giving Arizona needed life right after the Vikings took a 7-0 lead. The Cardinals had lost the early momentum after Kerry Rhodes failed to protect the football during the final stages of an interception return, ultimately losing the ball as he approached the goal line for what should have been a Cardinals touchdown.

Stephens-Howling caught the kickoff just inside the Cardinals' left hash and cut to his right. He crossed the right hash at the 15, hit full stride inside the yard-line numbers near the 30 and then cut back toward the right hash as Vikings kicker Ryan Longwell flailed at him helplessly. There were key blocks -- safety Hamza Abdullah and linebacker O'Brien Schofield on Vikings linebacker Jasper Brinkley, defensive end Alan Branch on Vikings cornerback Chris Cook, fullback Jason Wright on Vikings cornerback Asher Allen, tackle Jeremy Bridges on Vikings running back Toby Gerhart, tight end Jim Dray on Vikings safety Husain Abdullah, Hamza's brother -- but the little guy with the football made them all look good.

"He’s obviously a dynamic player," Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt told reporters Monday. "He does a lot of things very well for us. We all see the kickoff returns, but he does some other things for us in coverage and those aspects that are invaluable to us. We really have a good young player in LaRod."

Stephens-Howling has two kickoff returns for touchdowns this season and three in his career. Only Ollie Matson has more in franchise history (six between 1952 and 1958). Only Stephens-Howling, Matson and Les Goble have scored more than once on kickoff returns in the same Cardinals season. League-wide, Stephens-Howling is one of three players this season with multiple kickoff returns for touchdowns, joining New England’s Brandon Tate and Seattle’s Leon Washington.

ESPN.com NFL Power Ranking (pre-camp): 3

MANKATO, Minn. -- The question typically follows The Question. After Minnesotans ask, "Is Favre going to play?" they almost always follow with this one: "How does the rest of the team look?"

In a sign of what has been a wild summer already, the former is much easier to answer than the latter. Quarterback Brett Favre still seems likely to re-join the team later this month, but his once-and-future teammates missed so many training camp practices that it was nearly impossible to gauge the state of the team. Pro Bowl receiver Sidney Rice missed all 24 practices because of a mysterious hip injury. Receiver Percy Harvin (funeral/migraines) missed 21, tailback Adrian Peterson (hamstring) sat out 16, center John Sullivan (leg) was significantly limited in 20 and right guard Anthony Herrera (back) missed seven.

In all, more than half of the Vikings' offensive starters missed a majority of training camp. It might prove a manageable total for a team that has returned nearly intact from the one that advanced to the NFC Championship Game, but the injuries and indecision conspired to make for some nervous days at Minnesota State University, Mankato.

Coach Brad Childress did his best to weather what he termed a minor storm, but his skill for finding the bright side has surely been tested.

"People ask me if this is the most number of players that I can remember sitting out," Childress said. "No, it's not. I read the [news] clips. Philadelphia, they had 14 guys sitting out at one point. I guess [the media] is the one that has to determine whether it's the key guys or not. As the mother hen, I would like them here taking every turn and taking everything. The downside is they're not getting those turns. But the upside, and I have to look at the upside, is you have other players who are getting elevated reps."

Indeed, the Vikings will have the most well-trained junior varsity team in the NFC North. The state of their varsity team, however, remains unknown.

THREE HOT ISSUES

1. To what extent did Favre's uncertainty impact the rest of the team's preparation? Most players experienced a similar drama last season, and it doesn't appear that many are fretting his ultimate decision or are distracted by the indecision. But that's largely because they all expect him to return, and it was telling when tight end Visanthe Shiancoe blurted that a surprise retirement "would be a blow to the team." Not coincidentally, a muzzled Shiancoe has hardly been heard from since.

Another respected veteran, cornerback Antoine Winfield, said: "We are all hopeful that he comes back. It would be nice to spend another season with him, but at this point we don't know. But either way, it's not going to make my job any easier or harder. I still have to go out there and perform and make as many plays as I can."

As far as on the field, history trumps intuition. It makes sense to suggest that an offense is behind for as long as its quarterback stays away. But Favre's remarkable mid-August adjustment last season makes it difficult to make that argument.

2. Have the Vikings done enough to fortify their secondary? Starting right cornerback Cedric Griffin is still recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament, and the Vikings have opened his job up to four players: Lito Sheppard, Asher Allen, Benny Sapp and rookie Chris Cook. Sheppard makes the most sense as a short-term starter, but Cook was impressive on every level in training camp.

Cook displayed sophisticated cover skills, enough speed to stay with most receivers and, at 6-foot-2, an imposing physical presence. Sheppard has held on to his first-team job, but it could be a matter of time before Cook displaces him.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have created a legitimate competition at strong safety between incumbent Tyrell Johnson and second-year player Jamarca Sanford. If all things are equal, I'm guessing the Vikings will favor Johnson, a high second-round draft pick in 2008. But Sanford is a live wire, a strong hitter and won't go quietly.

Coaches believe Johnson has responded well to the challenge, but they want to see it translate into more plays -- big tackles, interceptions, forced fumbles -- during preseason games.

3. Is there a connection between Favre's indecision and the lengthy absences of Rice, Harvin and Peterson? I can't tell you how often I've heard that question in the past week or so. It comes down to whether players resent the double standard Favre has enjoyed since the end of last season, and if some of his most prominent teammates are passively protesting. All I can say is that no overt evidence exists to support that charge.

I agree that it seemed suspicious when the Vikings' three top skill players all came up with reasons to miss most of training camp. Conspiracy theories are great, but in the end that's all they are -- theories. The most important fact is there is every reason to believe all three players will be ready to play when the regular season begins.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

When middle linebacker E.J. Henderson first fractured his left femur last December, initial reports suggested he would need a year to recover. That timetable suggested that Henderson wouldn't return to the field, if at all, before the 2011 season. Given his age (30) and history of significant injuries, you wondered if his career was over. But Henderson has cut his recovery time in half and appears on his way to re-claiming the starting job in time for the Sept. 9 season opener at New Orleans. By the second week of camp, Henderson was taking all of the first-team repetitions while his understudy, Jasper Brinkley, was pushed back to the second team. Considering the titanium rod that holds Henderson's leg in place, such a quick return would be nothing short of a miracle.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT

Ever since the Vikings made him a second-round draft pick in April, Toby Gerhart has figured as the heir to Chester Taylor's vacated role as the No. 2 tailback. But when the Vikings broke camp Thursday, Albert Young was clearly ahead of Gerhart on the depth chart. There is plenty of time for that order to change, but however you look at it, Gerhart had a tough camp. He somehow incurred the wrath of a number of defensive veterans; nose tackle Pat Williams and defensive end Ray Edwards both took their shots at him during practice. Perhaps it was just a visible portion of the NFL toughening process, but there's no doubt Gerhart has some climbing to do before the season begins.

OBSERVATION DECK

• Icon SMITarvaris Jackson played only a handful of snaps in 2009 but would be the starter if Favre retires.
  There is no doubt that Tarvaris Jackson, and not Sage Rosenfels, is the No. 2 quarterback and will be the starter if Favre ultimately decides not to play. Jackson has developed a realistic mentality after living through various incarnations of FavreWatch the past three years, and as he does every summer, he threw some tantalizing passes during individual camp drills. But there is a big difference between unleashing 60-yard ropes in practice and playing quarterback at an NFL level during games, and Jackson remains somewhere in the middle.
• Rosenfels reportedly struggled during the early stages of camp, but he looked decent during the three days I watched practice. I once thought Rosenfels would be traded or released if Favre returned, but now I'm not so sure. To this point, there is no way the Vikings could choose rookie Joe Webb over Rosenfels for the No. 3 job -- and keep a straight face. Frankly, Webb flashed some athletic skills but otherwise looked overwhelmed during camp. There is no way he is ready to be on an NFL roster. One option: Keep two quarterbacks on the active roster and put Webb on the practice squad.
• Although the Vikings are splitting kicking duties between Ryan Longwell and Rhys Lloyd in the preseason opener at St. Louis, it's hard to believe Longwell won't be the team's place-kicker this year. Lloyd will be a high-priced kickoff specialist. But in explaining the initial split, special teams coordinator Brian Murphy said: "There is no preconceived notion about how this roster will develop. We want to see everyone compete at their highest level. We want to see them put in every position possible. If we get that at every position, we will be a better football team."
• Of all the veterans who missed significant camp time, Sullivan's absence might have been the most significant. He struggled at times during his first year as a starter and needed every practice repetition he could get. It's especially important to see if Sullivan has improved his core strength to stand up to NFL nose tackles.
• After noting the Vikings' long list of camp absences, it's only fair to note that two of their biggest -- and older -- players participated in every practice. Pat Williams, 37, and left tackle Bryant McKinnie, 30, were on the field every day.
• It appears as though Winfield has made it all the way back from a foot injury that made him a part-time player in 2009. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier admitted the team wasn't certain that would be the case when camp began, but Winfield experienced no setbacks after an offseason of rest and rehabilitation.
• Childress has used a John Wooden maxim as one of his primary messages of training camp. "It's in all of their manuals and I'm talking to them about it," Childress said. "It's this: 'The main ingredient to stardom is the rest of the team.' It's a great statement. We'll find out how much guys can put their stuff away for the greater good."

MANKATO, Minn. -- This is how it happens sometimes when an NFL player suffers a serious injury.

Although healed from a medical standpoint, the player is robbed of the elite skills responsible for his original ascendance into the league. He's slower, maybe not flexible enough or runs with a hitch. Coaches recognize the slip immediately, but the player -- eternally hopeful or possibly in denial -- insists he is at full strength.

So the team puts the player back on the field and lets him see for himself what is evident to everyone else: He's done.

I must admit that scenario came to mind when the Minnesota Vikings cleared linebacker E.J. Henderson for training camp practices last month. As you recall, Henderson fractured his left femur last December in a gruesome injury that was reported to be career-threatening. Fractured femurs usually occur in car accidents and motorcycle rollovers, not football games.

It left Henderson riding a scooter around the team's practice facility last winter. Doctors implanted a permanent titanium rod in his leg. He spent six weeks in a wheelchair, used crutches for another six weeks and a cane for six weeks after that. That's no way for an NFL player to prepare for a season.

So I figured the Vikings were letting down Henderson easily. Instead of placing him on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, or waiving him injured, the Vikings were simply allowing him to discover football mortality on his own.

To this point, however, Henderson's return has proved to be no charade. No one is willing to say he will be the Vikings' starting middle linebacker Sept. 9 at New Orleans -- no one except Henderson, that is -- but here's what we can say with absolute certainty: Henderson has cut his original recovery timetable in half, and in the process surpassed every milestone set in front of him. His final hurdle will be a big one -- actual game experience -- but it's not out of the question that he could play in Saturday's preseason opener at St. Louis.

"I've pretty much known I would get back as soon as I was able to walk again," Henderson said. "Seeing the progress I made each and every week, I knew I would be ready to rock."

Initial reports suggested it would take up to a year for Henderson's leg to heal, but in their first meeting after the injury, Henderson told Vikings coach Brad Childress that he would "set a whole new protocol" for rehabilitating the injury. But despite his accelerated progress, the Vikings were giving strong consideration to placing Henderson on the PUP list when training camp began.

"My tendency is always to err on the side of caution," Childress said.

Henderson talked him out of it. He told Childress he had completed every bit of conditioning specified in the team's summer workout manual and said he needed to begin football activities. "Everything that we had asked players to do, he had done," Childress said. "So we've just been spoon-feeding him a little more each day."

This week, in fact, Henderson reached the point where he was taking all of the Vikings' first-team practice repetitions. I won't pretend to have the expertise to differentiate between Henderson pre- and post-injury. But to me, his increased repetitions are clear evidence of the Vikings' faith in his recovery. If they were worried, or at least wanted to hedge their bet, it's unlikely they would be taking away an increasing number of snaps from backup middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley.

What we're seeing is unprecedented in recent NFL history. How many professional football players have you heard of with titanium rods in their legs? One success story is Oakland Raiders running back Michael Bush, who had a similar instrument inserted into his right leg when he was 22. Bush returned to the field two years later.

Intuition, if nothing else, makes you question how Henderson could recover so much quicker, and at age 30. How could a titanium rod not slow him down?

Even Henderson admitted he briefly questioned his future when he found out about that detail.

"A little bit, yeah," he said. "But with modern medicine I don't have any worries. The doctors told me that I shouldn't feel it and that my leg would be stronger. And I really haven't felt it."

My sense is the Vikings will ride this wave for as long as it takes them but are not yet ready to declare total victory. There are too many unknowns and too much left to happen -- full, live contact among them -- before any conclusions can be drawn. But if Henderson has any doubts, he's not letting on.

"I'm on track," he said. "I don't know what the head coach or the trainers have in store for me, but I'm ready to rock [Saturday] if they want me to. We'll see how it goes. I think that's the last thing -- real, live bullets, bringing them down for real. It's going to be fine."

NFL offseasons are filled with breathless updates on players recovering from injuries and surgeries of various degrees. Here in the NFC North, however, we have five players whose injuries occurred so recently -- or were so severe -- that their availability is already in doubt for the start of the season.

Teams have been known to express intentional and excessive optimism about injured players -- shocker! -- so let's try to take an unvarnished look at the severity of each Black and Blue situation, the latest timetable and the likeliest contingency plan. Note: There aren't any Chicago Bears mentioned below. The Bears are lucky that their roster is relatively healthy.

Player: Detroit Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee
Injury date: Nov. 26, 2009
Status update: Pettigrew has been participating in individual drills during organized team activities but isn't expected to be ready to practice when training camp begins next month. It's likely he'll start camp on the physically-unable-to-perform (PUP) list. If you subscribe to the 10-month timetable for typical ACL injuries, Pettigrew will be cleared at some point in September.
Contingency: The Lions traded for Denver tight end Tony Scheffler and re-signed backup Will Heller. The Scheffler trade was a smart move regardless, but it reinforced the point that Pettigrew isn't likely to be at full speed when the season begins. At some point, Pettigrew and Scheffler will form a potent one-two duo. But for the immediate future, Scheffler and Heller are the likeliest candidates to open the season.

Player: Lions tailback Kevin Smith
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee
Injury date: Dec. 13, 2009
Status update: Like Pettigrew, Smith has been participating in some individual drills during OTAs. Coach Jim Schwartz recently said he "wouldn't be surprised at all" if Smith is ready to practice at the start of training camp, putting him back on the field less than nine months after the injury. It's been done before but would represent an accelerated timetable.
Contingency: Whether Smith was injured, it's likely the Lions still would have traded back into the first round to select speedy tailback Jahvid Best. Given Schwartz's well-known feelings about Best's game-breaking ability, it's hard to imagine a situation where Best isn't the Lions' top option in the backfield -- no matter when Smith returns. If Smith isn't ready to provide backup carries, the Lions still have 2009 backup Maurice Morris on their roster.

Player: Green Bay Packers cornerback Al Harris
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee
Injury date: Nov. 22, 2009
Status update: Harris' injury has been described as worse than a typical torn ACL. According to Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com, Harris required a second procedure to accelerate the healing process. Harris recently moved his rehabilitation work to Green Bay and is back around the team. But while Harris has expressed some optimism about being ready for training camp, it appears a trip to the PUP list is much more likely.
Contingency: The Packers protected themselves by issuing a high tender to Harris' presumed replacement, restricted free agent Tramon Williams -- a move that ensured Williams wouldn't be able to sign with another team. Whether it happens this season or further in the future, Williams seems destined to take over for Harris, who turns 36 in December.

Player: Minnesota Vikings cornerback Cedric Griffin
Injury: Torn anterior cruciate ligament in left knee
Injury date: Jan. 24, 2010
Status update: Griffin has been rehabilitating at the Vikings' facility but hasn't yet participated in organized team activities. It's likely he'll miss minicamp later this week and it's hard to imagine that he won't wind up on the PUP list for training camp. A 10-month rehab would put him back on the field at midseason.
Contingency: The Vikings' public optimism must be viewed in the context of their rapid-fire offseason moves to add depth at cornerback. They re-signed 2009 nickel back Benny Sapp, brought in veteran free agent Lito Sheppard and made Chris Cook the No. 34 overall pick of the draft. Coaches also have praised second-year player Asher Allen during OTAs. That collection of cornerbacks suggests the Vikings aren't counting on Griffin returning anytime soon.

Player: Vikings linebacker E.J. Henderson
Injury: Fractured left femur
Injury date: Dec. 6, 2009
Status update: Henderson said Friday he is beginning to run at full speed and that he would do everything he could to be cleared for the start of training camp. But it would be a shock if Henderson didn't open camp on the PUP. The same goes for the possibility of opening the season as the Vikings' middle linebacker. Henderson's original recovery timetable was one year. He has a permanent titanium rod in the leg, a rare predicament for an NFL player.
Contingency: It seems likely that second-year player Jasper Brinkley will open the season as the Vikings' middle linebacker. The real question will be whether Brinkley handles all of the duties associated with that job, or if the Vikings will have outside linebacker Ben Leber call the defensive signals until Henderson's presumed return.

Preseason predictions are a lot like flying lessons. You can practice and study and anticipate as much as you want while sitting in a simulator. The reality, however, is no one knows if you can fly a plane until you get up in the (real) air.

That's a pretentious, Minnesota cake-eating way of acknowledging the limited value of predicting in May who will sit atop the NFC North on the night of Jan. 2, 2011. But to the extent that it matters, and following up on our "faulty assumptions" discussion from last week, I think we are erring in assuming that Minnesota should be the preseason favorite to repeat as division champions.

In fact, if I had to pick a winner right now -- and I don't, and it doesn't matter, but I'm doing it anyway -- I would go with Green Bay. (Audience: Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.)

I'll state my case in a bit. But first, let's consider the most quantitative way I'm aware of to make these predictions. We first introduced you to AccuScore last summer as Brett Favre was moving closer to joining the Vikings. The AccuScore people develop variables to create digital profiles for NFL coaches and players. Those profiles are used to create "teams" that are then run through a computer simulation to play out a "season" based on each team's actual NFL schedule.

Using 10,000 such simulated seasons last year, AccuScore correctly predicted the NFC North's final standings. This year, as you can see in the charts below, AccuScore is picking Minnesota to win the division if Favre returns and the Packers if he doesn't.

ESPN.com's Spring Power Rankings also pick Minnesota to finish ahead of Green Bay, presumably based on similar expectations for Favre. But I think we should at least question whether Favre's presence automatically will give the Vikings a division title. These are two teams, after all, that finished within a game of each other last season, primarily as a result of Minnesota's season sweep.

(Sorry, Chicago and Detroit. My head isn't big enough to consider more than two division contenders right now.)

Here's where I'm coming from:

1. Favre made an undeniable impact on the Vikings last season, but let's not forget it came as a result of arguably the best season of his career. He threw seven interceptions in 2009 after throwing at least twice that many in 14 of his previous 17 full seasons. To be fair, we can't rule out a repeat performance. But what do you think is more likely: A 2010 season closer to his career averages or another precedent-setter? If a modest slip accounts for even one additional loss, it could be enough for the Packers to leapfrog them in the standings.
2. If Favre is less effective in 2010, it stands to reason he'll be less dangerous to the Packers' biggest weakness of last season: Pass defense against elite quarterbacks. When you look at Green Bay's schedule, you see eight games in which they will face a quarterback who has played in a Pro Bowl. But I would only consider three of those games -- two against Favre and one against New England's Tom Brady -- to feature the kind of elite passers who ravaged the Packers last season. And this doesn't take into account the possibility that the Packers' pass defense will improve independently of Favre's potential slide. I have my doubts about the Packers' potential for improvement, but it's conceivable the Vikings will be less equipped to exploit it.
AP Photo/Jim MoneTight end Jermichael Finley had a breakout season in 2009, catching 55 passes for 676 yards and 5 TDs.
3. There are some areas in which Green Bay unquestionably has improved and Minnesota appears to have weakened since the start of last season. The Packers, for one, have a more balanced passing attack following the emergence of tight end Jermichael Finley. As long as 35-year-old receiver Donald Driver can provide another productive season, Green Bay has a yin-and-yang passing tree that will be much more difficult to defend than it was in the first half of 2009.
4. The Packers also appear to have a better plan at offensive line than they had entering the 2009 season. They have a veteran starter locked in at both tackle positions with skilled younger players set to back up both of them. First-round draft pick Bryan Bulaga will play behind left tackle Chad Clifton and T.J. Lang likely will be behind right tackle Mark Tauscher. This scenario minimizes the chance of jailbreak pass "protection" that set back the Packers early last season.
5. Minnesota's pass rush shouldn't miss a beat as long as defensive end Ray Edwards returns to complement Jared Allen and Kevin Williams. But the back seven is in an underdiscussed transition mode as spring practice begins. It's uncertain whether longtime middle linebacker E.J. Henderson will make a full return from a fractured leg, and the drop-off to second-year player Jasper Brinkley is notable. Starting cornerback Cedric Griffin will need several more months to rehabilitate a torn anterior cruciate ligament, leaving veterans Lito Sheppard and Benny Sapp to man his position. No NFL team seemed willing to give Sheppard or Sapp a starting job in free agency this year. And the Vikings only can hope that 33-year-old cornerback Antoine Winfield is fully recovered from a fractured foot that limited him last season.
6. Green Bay's schedule gives the team a better chance to jump to an early division lead than the Vikings'. With games against Buffalo, Detroit, Washington and Miami, the Packers have a decent chance to be 5-1 or 6-0 heading into an Oct. 24 showdown against the Vikings at Lambeau Field. The Vikings, meanwhile, face difficult games at New Orleans and at the New York Jets. They'll have done well to be 4-2 at that point. But the bottom line is that there is a decent chance the Packers could establish a three-game lead in the division before November starts.

This is just one early-May take. I'm sure you have your own. Remember: We're still in the simulator. Nothing more. Let's take pleasure from a consequence-free environment.

» NFC Approach: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

» Draft Watch: Biggest needs (2/17) | Busts/gems (2/24) | Schemes, themes (3/3) | Recent history (3/10) | Needs revisited (3/17) | Under-the-radar needs (3/26) | History in that spot (3/31) | Draft approach (4/7) | Decision-makers (4/14) | Dream scenario/Plan B (4/21)

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: Draft approach.

Chicago Bears

General manager Jerry Angelo's background is a scouting director, so for most of his Bears tenure he accumulated and guarded draft picks as if they were gold. In his first seven drafts with the Bears, he made 28 picks in the first three rounds (an average of four per year). But Angelo has changed his team-building process in the past two years, releasing that grip when offered the opportunity to acquire more established players. He gutted the top of the 2009 and 2010 drafts in trades for quarterback Jay Cutler and late defensive end Gaines Adams, supplementing those losses by signing veteran free agents to fill individual needs. It's not a bad idea when considering Angelo's current situation. The more immediate approach will either work or, after already missing the playoffs for three consecutive years, it will be a mess someone else has to clean up.

Detroit Lions

The talent gap in Detroit remains wide enough that the Lions will continue following their new mantra under general manager Martin Mayhew and coach Jim Schwartz: Talent must trump need at every pick. That was the case last year, when the Lions considered tight end Brandon Pettigrew the best player on their board at the No. 20 overall pick, and will resume in 2010. It is the Lions' luxury and curse. Although some positions are more dire than others, the team needs help at all of them except quarterback. So while the Lions' ideal scenario would be to grab multiple linemen in the first three rounds, they can't afford to force it by passing up players they consider more talented -- no matter what position they play.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have largely sat out the free-agent market over the past four years, leaving them to fill all of their needs through the draft. As a result, general manager Ted Thompson hasn't been afraid to trade down to accumulate additional picks and provide maximum depth on his roster. This tack values volume over elite pedigree but has brought players like receiver Greg Jennings and defensive tackle Johnny Jolly to the team. Thompson did trade up last year to grab linebacker Clay Matthews in the first round, but in general that has been an exception to his rule. I'm guessing the Packers wouldn't be opposed to moving below their No. 23 overall pick this year if it means an additional choice in the late second or early third round.

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota vice president Rick Spielman inherited a relatively talented roster in 2007 and thus has used the draft to target individual players his scouts have identified for specific roles on the team. By my count, Spielman has made seven draft-day trades to position himself to take the players he wanted over the past three years. Those players include receiver Sidney Rice (2007), safety Tyrell Johnson (2008) and linebacker Jasper Brinkley (2009). Expect more of the same this year from Spielman, who has the luxury of drafting purely for value rather than need.

ORLANDO, Fla. -- While we’ve focused our attention on Minnesota’s quarterback situation lately, many of you have asked about the recovery of Vikings linebacker E.J. Henderson. There was some fear last winter that his fractured femur could be career-ending, but Henderson said last week that he “definitely” would play again.

The questions the Vikings now face: When will he return? At what level of play? And what do they do in the meantime?

Judging by the Vikings’ inaction during the free-agent period, it seems safe to assume they will give him every opportunity to reclaim his job. Until that point, they seem set to follow the same contingency plan they implemented last December. Jasper Brinkley would seem the likeliest candidate to play in Henderson’s place until he returns or if he suffers a setback.

The latter scenario is something the Vikings must plan for, even if they have no reason to believe it will happen. A fractured femur occurs more often in traffic accidents than it does on the football field. If nothing else, his rehabilitation schedule will be difficult to predict.

“Nothing is going to surprise me with E.J. because he’s taken and embraced this thing,” Vikings coach Brad Childress said at Wednesday’s NFC coaches breakfast. “Talking to him and the people that he’s talked to with a similar injury he wants to set the E.J. Henderson protocol for this injury: Moving ahead, being ahead of the curve, doing the things he’s done at this point of time. Everything I’ve seen, he’s attacking it and he’s moving in the right direction in a hurry.”

It’s possible the Vikings could sign or draft a linebacker who could supplant Brinkley on the depth chart, but Childress said he “did a great job” in Henderson’s place last season and offered no reason to believe the Vikings aren’t counting on him for a bigger role in 2010.

“He was physical,” Childress said. “I thought he was into it system-wise. Did he make mistakes? Yeah, but you could say everybody … made mistakes at different points as well.”

On Sunday, Minnesota coordinator Leslie Frazier’s defense produced the most dominating performance of the NFL playoffs. Monday, rumors emerged that Frazier had been passed over for another head coaching job -- the seventh such instance in the past three years.

And on Tuesday it became official: Buffalo hired coaching retread Chan Gailey to replace the fired Dick Jauron. Frazier interviewed two weeks ago for the job, but the Bills reportedly preferred a candidate with an offensive background. Unless another job opens this offseason, Frazier will remain the NFL’s most qualified head-coach-in-waiting.

In a league that covets hot coordinators, it’s difficult to understand why Frazier has yet to take that final step. He has overseen a defense that finished among the NFL’s top 10 for consecutive seasons, the first time that’s happened for the Vikings in nearly two decades, and has classic head-coaching credentials with Super Bowl championships as a player (Chicago, 1986) and assistant coach (Indianapolis, 2006).

Former Colts coach Tony Dungy, in fact, is said to consider Frazier his likely head coach if he re-joins the NFL as a team president. Until then, however, the Bills’ loss is the Vikings’ gain. Frazier said recently he has too much on his plate to be either disappointed or to be anticipating his next opportunity.

“I’d like to get a third ring,” he said, “and it’s not hard for me to move on beyond that. It’s not hard at all. I promise you. These opportunities are so rare in the National Football League for players and coaches and for me. Just to be in this situation and know that we’re just a couple games from reaching our goal as a team, no, it’s not hard.”

Frazier will spend Tuesday crafting a game plan for the NFC Championship Game, one he hopes will slow down New Orleans the way his team dismantled Dallas last Sunday. The Vikings’ “Maul of America” defense (Thanks!) held the Cowboys to a season-low in points (three), yards (248) and first downs (16) in a 34-3 victory at the Metrodome.

While Frazier works out those details, let’s take a moment to understand how he’s impacted the Vikings' run to the brink of Super Bowl XLIV.

Subtle scheming

Sometimes I think the perception of Frazier’s role gets diminished in the star power of Minnesota’s personnel. The Vikings, after all, have an elite defensive line and, when healthy, one of the league’s best cornerbacks in Antoine Winfield.

And it’s true: Frazier makes no attempt to be a mastermind schemer, the type that plays a 4-3 one week and a 1-5 the next. The Vikings mostly employ Cover 2 in the back end and occasionally mix in a blitz. This season, according to ESPN Stats & Information, the Vikings sent at least one additional pass-rusher on 30.1 percent of their defensive snaps. That figure was the 10th-lowest in the NFL.

“The key is small menu, big understanding [from players],” coach Brad Childress said. “That is the thing we pride ourselves on.”

Still, Frazier’s strategic fingerprints can be seen if you look closely enough. Last season, he made a subtle change in the way his defensive backs lined up pre-snap during a game at Arizona. The shift befuddled Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who threw an interception, took four sacks and finished with a 78.9 passer rating in the Vikings’ 35-14 victory.

Against the Cowboys, Frazier extended the Vikings’ time window for getting lined up before the snap to enhance their ability to disguise coverages. According to several players, Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo repeatedly waited for the Vikings to “show” before typically snapping the ball in frustration and panic. Romo committed three turnovers in the game.

“Our coaches did a great job of getting us ready for this game,” Winfield said. “We knew what they were going to do more than [the other way around].”

Assisting the head coach

Childress made Frazier his assistant head coach in 2008 after he made positive impressions during job interviews with Miami and Atlanta. That title is typically ceremonial, but Childress leans on Frazier for advice and counsel more than you might realize.

When the Vikings were having trouble signing a veteran quarterback to pair with Tarvaris Jackson two years ago, Childress honed in on the nearly-retired Gus Frerotte. Before pursuing him, however, Childress asked Frazier to evaluate game tape to determine whether Frerotte’s arm strength made him a viable candidate for the job. Frazier concurred, and Frerotte led the Vikings to an 8-4 record as a starter last season.

Childress and Frazier can occasionally be seen huddling on the sidelines prior to a significant game management decision. And when Childress was recruiting Brett Favre last spring, he sent Frazier to Mississippi for a quiet one-on-one meeting with Favre. It isn’t often that a defensive coordinator gets involved in signing free agent quarterbacks, but at the time Frazier said: “It was to answer any questions he had, and for him to hear from a different voice, that wasn't offensive-oriented and could come at him from a different slant and try to convey to him a different message.”

Handling adversity

The Vikings were the NFL’s sixth-ranked defense in each of the past two years despite losing middle linebacker E.J. Henderson to season-ending injuries. Frazier navigated the loss by elevating a backup (Napoleon Harris in 2008, Jasper Brinkley in 2009) but shifting play-calling duties to outside linebacker Ben Leber.

Winfield, meanwhile, missed six games because of a sprained foot and was not 100 percent upon returning last month. After watching Winfield struggle to chase receivers for two games, Frazier made the difficult decision to shift him to nickel back and use Benny Sapp as his starter on the outside.

It all came together Sunday at the Metrodome, where the Vikings defense turned in a performance better than any other this season.

“We’ve had some good outings on defense,” Frazier said. “But the setting and the scenario made this the best. … A lot of things went right. You want it to go right another week, and then another week, and then we’ll be some pretty happy dudes.”

Head coach or otherwise.

Happy 2010 to each and every one of you! I hope you had a safe and enjoyable evening. Me? I continued my New Year’s tradition of sleeping right through it. It’s a beautiful thing.

We have a big weekend coming up here in the NFC North, so we’re going to motor through Friday like a regular day. No time for resting. That came last night.

Let’s start off the year by taking our morning spin through the division:

• Chicago defensive end Alex Brown had this to say about the Week 1 loss of linebacker Brian Urlacher, according to the Chicago Sun-Times: “I don't think people really understand how important 54 is. I haven’t talked about it a whole lot because Hunter [Hillenmeyer] and Nick [Roach] have done a great job in there. But having 54 means a lot. If you bring it up during the season, people tend to say it's an excuse, but take Peyton Manning off Indianapolis and see what happens. We'll have him back, and we'll be a different defense and a different team next year.”
• ESPN Chicago’s Jeff Dickerson wonders if Bears tight end Desmond Clark will move on this offseason.
• Bears receiver Devin Hester could return kickoffs Sunday at Detroit for the first time since Week 1, writes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.
• Detroit coach Jim Schwartz had this to say about his team’s fourth sellout of the season, according to Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press: “We don't need to worry about selling tickets for a sellout. ... Winning is what brings fans.”
• John Niyo of the Detroit News offers 10 resolutions for the Lions, including to think big on draft day.
• Embattled Green Bay nickelback Jarrett Bush is going to have to cover one of Arizona’s elite receivers Sunday, writes Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• Packers tailback Ryan Grant is increasing the frequency of big plays, notes Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Packers safety Atari Bigby has returned to his 2007 form -- but with added experience, writes Jason Wilde of ESPN Milwaukee.
• Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune looks at the play of Minnesota’s rookie middle linebacker, Jasper Brinkley.
• The Vikings are slow to make in-game adjustments, writes Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert

Check here for a full list of Minnesota’s roster moves.

Biggest surprise: There weren’t many, but it was a bit startling to see the Vikings part ways with tight end Garrett Mills. He’s always demonstrated soft hands and seemed to be an offensive playmaker in the waiting. The Vikings carried him on their roster for two years hoping that would be the case, but this year they decided to go heavier at the receiver position. They kept three tight ends -- Visanthe Shiancoe, Jim Kleinsasser and Jeff Dugan -- along with six receivers. Essentially, No. 6 receiver Darius Reynaud beat out Mills.

No brainers: There will be some hand-wringing over the decision to release quarterback John David Booty, especially if he is claimed by another team. I don’t deny that he’s in the middle of his development, but to this point I’ve never seen anything to suggest he’ll be any better than a No. 3 quarterback. The Vikings have three passers on their roster who are better than him. I don’t think there are many people in the NFL who consider Booty the Vikings’ quarterback of the future. It’ll be OK.

What’s next: Minnesota will have to determine whether Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels will be the No. 2 quarterback behind starter Brett Favre. I’m guessing it’s Jackson. Coach Brad Childress loathes interceptions, and Rosenfels threw a bad one Friday night against Dallas. I’ll also be interested to see if some of the Vikings’ roster decisions help improve their coverage units. Linebackers Jasper Brinkley and Kenny Onatolu, along with defensive backs Jamarca Sanford and Karl Paymah, made the team based almost exclusively on special teams.

Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert

With three months left until training camp, we have two full-fledged quarterback competitions in the NFC North. Well, maybe 1 1/2.

Detroit general manger Martin Mayhew gave strong indications Sunday that veteran Daunte Culpepper will open the season as the starter over rookie Matthew Stafford. That move has been expected and comes despite what was reported to be a strong performance by Stafford during the Lions' rookie minicamp over the weekend.

Unless something changes, that will leave us with Minnesota's battle between Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels (and, maybe, some guy named Favre) as the division's only quarterback competition in training camp.

Here's what Mayhew said Sunday, according to Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press:

"He's a pro, and I trust Daunte. He's got a lot of ability, and I anticipate that if we had something to do today, Daunte would be the guy today. But we've got a lot of time to work, and we'll see how it goes."

Mayhew is an old-school ex-player, and it would have been surprising to hear him effusively praise a rookie. But I continue to believe that the Lions prefer to give Stafford at least some development time on the bench if they can.

Let's continue around the division after a weekend of rookie minicamps:

• Lions coach Jim Schwartz said he didn't realize how well Stafford was throwing until he watched film of practice Friday and Saturday, according to John Niyo of the Detroit News. Stafford: "I felt like I threw most of 'em pretty good."
• One of Stafford's few mistakes was an interception to second-round pick Louis Delmas -- a safety who had the best camp of any rookie, writes Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com.
• Mayhew said he is "actively looking" for a veteran backup quarterback to add to the roster, according to David Birkett of the Oakland Press. That doesn't bode well for local hero Drew Stanton.
• Chicago coach Lovie Smith indicated that both of his safety positions could be in flux this summer, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times. One likely starter, Kevin Payne, is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery.
• David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune profiles rookie cornerback D.J. Moore of Vanderbilt. Moore, listed at 5-foot-9 in draft guides, actually measured in at 5-8. Moore: "Doesn't bother me. Some guys can't jump. You might be 6 feet with a 30-inch vertical. Well, I'm 5-9 with a 39 1/2-inch vertical. I might play a little taller than those guys."
• Bears general manager Jerry Angelo on the possibility of Brett Favre returning to the game: "I'm just reading the newspapers like everyone else. He says he wants to stay retired, and I hope that is what he does. We have great memories of him. We wish him well." Read more in the Sun-Times.
• Judd Zulgad of the Star Tribune breaks down the likelihood of Favre returning to play for the Vikings. One tidbit in an accompanying blog item: Favre has spoken recently with Vikings offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, one of his former quarterbacks coach in Green Bay.
• Sean Jensen of the St. Paul Pioneer Press profiles hard-hitting linebacker Jasper Brinkley, the Vikings' fifth-round draft pick.
• Packers coach Mike McCarthy said it's likely he won't add a fourth quarterback to his current depth chart for training camp. Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette looks at Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm.
• Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel profiles Packers first-round pick B.J. Raji. Nickel: "Size, speed, skill -- those who know Raji best said he has it all, which was why he was taken ninth overall last weekend in the first place. However, what became clear upon meeting Raji in person this weekend was how easily he seems to have embraced his new team and the surreal expectations that come with being a top draft pick in Green Bay."
• Raji won't be the starter at nose tackle, writes Greg A. Bedard of the Journal Sentinel. Ryan Pickett will start there, with a rotation to be determined thereafter. I envision that changing over time.
• Safety Nick Collins, who wants the Packers to begin negotiations on a contract extension, ended his boycott of the offseason program and participated in some meetings last week. McCarthy revealed that Sunday, according to the Press-Gazette.