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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Chicago Bears in 2012.

Dream scenario (13-3): Tailback Matt Forte reports to training camp happy and healthy, either with a new contract or an acceptance of the franchise tag. His good will soothes the locker room and allows players to focus on football. Quarterback Jay Cutler leads the second coming of the 2008 Denver Broncos offense, connecting with receiver Brandon Marshall for 100-plus receptions, and the Bears finally find a Devin Hester "Package" that works. The aging defense remains sharp, rookie Shea McClellin provides an important balance to the pass rush and the Bears prove to be an NFC powerhouse.

Nightmare scenario: (7-9): Forte holds out from training camp, starting the summer off on a bad vibe. An offense that looks good on paper struggles to get organized under first-year coordinator Mike Tice. The Hester Package limits his effectiveness as a returner. McClellin isn't ready to be a three-down player. The defense gets old more quickly than expected, exposing the Bears' lack of young impact players.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Colts in 2012.

Dream scenario (8-8): I consider this a pretty optimistic dream, but since we’re dreaming …

This one would require exemplary rookie seasons from quarterback Andrew Luck, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and at least a few others from the new regime’s first class.

But beyond that, they’ll need several guys from the old regime to play far better in a new system than they did in the old one for which they were better suited.

Donald Brown or Delone Carter will have to run effectively, for example. From a pool of returning cornerbacks including Chris Rucker, Kevin Thomas, Terrence Johnson and Brandon King, they need to find at least a nickel, and that presumes the guy they just traded for, Cassius Vaughn, will be the second starter. (If I am playing against the Colts, with that collection of defensive backs, I’m trying to get them in dime.)

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis prove to be pass-rushing demons as outside linebackers in a 3-4 base set, where they are coming from less predictable spots and forcing quarterbacks into all kind of mistakes. Their play offsets the questions at other spots for the defense, and helps set Luck and the offense up with good field position.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Yes, it’s possible the first year of the Ryan Grigson-Chuck Pagano regime matches the last year of the Bill Polian-Jim Caldwell one.

The Colts will face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in 2012. But if things go badly, plenty of second- and third-tier quarterbacks will also shred a patchwork secondary that added only safety Tom Zbikowski in free agency and Vaughn in a trade and got no help in the draft.

The defense can prove to have too few quality pieces to run a 3-4 or a 4-3 effectively, and if it’s giving up a lot of points, Luck will be dropping back a lot to try to lead comebacks. If a line of leftovers and castoffs can’t consistently fend off rushers, there will be trouble.

And should Luck get hurt and miss any time, the team will look to Drew Stanton or seventh-round pick Chandler Harnish. Either one is likely to leave fans pining for the halcyon days of Dan Orlovsky.

Also damaging would be the Texans ability to stay good and improvements from Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts got their two wins last season against the Titans and Texans late in the year.

Mort and Suzy discuss the Bears' offseason issues, Max and Marcellus rank the teams in the NFC East, and Herm and Bill Polian show off their dance moves.

A committee of ESPN experts -- including Trent Dilfer, Mel Kiper, Gary Horton, Matt Williamson -- assembled this offseason to create a unique version of our traditional Power Rankings.

Naturally, NFC North teams are featured prominently in what amounts to a three-year projection of Power Rankings for the 2015 season . The Green Bay Packers received the top spot as the team best equipped to compete three years from now, while the Detroit Lions were not far behind at No. 6.

The file requires an Insider subscription to read in full, but I can pass along where our four teams ranked and also a glimpse at the methodology used. Here is how the committee evaluated each team and the degree of impact each category had:

• Roster (32.5 percent of total score): Players under 30 emphasized
• Coaching (20 percent): Capability and stability of current staff
• Quarterback (17.5 percent): Where quarterback play would be in three years
• Draft (15 percent): Based on team's 2012 class and how many picks available in next three years.
• Front office (15 percent): Ability to manage roster and market's attraction to free agents.

Now on to the NFC North rankings with comments from me:

1. Green Bay Packers
Seifert comment: The presence of a 28-year-old MVP quarterback and one of the NFL's top general manager-coach combinations puts the Packers on an ideal long-term path.

6. Detroit Lions
Seifert comment: Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a 5,000-yard season before his 24th birthday. That's a nice start. General manager Martin Mayhew has elevated the team's talent level every season of his tenure and most of their key players -- Stafford, receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker Stephen Tulloch -- are under 30.

17. Chicago Bears
Seifert comment: Jay Cutler is a legitimate franchise quarterback, but the best players on the Bears' defense are all over 30. That list includes defensive end Julius Peppers, linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and cornerback Charles Tillman.

31. Minnesota Vikings
Seifert comment: Questions about quarterback Christian Ponder's long-term prospects made it difficult for the committee to project future success. There are also concerns about a lack of young impact players on defense. Defensive end Jared Allen is 30 and linebacker Chad Greenway is 29.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Chicago Bears and why.

For months, the Chicago Bears have systematically picked off their roster holes, large and small. They traded for receiver Brandon Marshall, giving quarterback Jay Cutler his long-sought "big target." They signed backups at quarterback (Jason Campbell) and running back (Michael Bush), drafted a pass-rusher (Shea McClellin) to complement Julius Peppers, and added another big receiver in rookie Alshon Jeffery.

But rather than address two years of uneven play along their offensive line with additional personnel upgrades, the Bears instead placed their faith in new offensive coordinator Mike Tice to handle that job. The Bears are confident that Tice's background as an offensive line coach will ensure a scheme that offers his blockers plenty of help and limits the difficulty of the position they find themselves under.

In the end, however, football is about the skills of the players more than it is the schemes of the coaches. If Tice can't help the Bears' incumbent linemen play at a winning level, then the rest of the Bears' upgrades won't matter for much. That's an awful lot of pressure to put on one coach.

Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.

Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.

Run, run, run.

And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.

The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.

St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).

NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.

Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.

The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).

San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).

The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.

And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The 2012 NFL draft is in the books. Our silly little arguments on left tackles and injured receivers seem so long ago. Oh, the memories….

In a few years, we'll be able to evaluate this draft with a measure of accuracy. For now, let's just consider some immediate highlights and lowlights.

BEST MOVE

The Green Bay Packers fielded arguably the best offense in franchise history last season. Their defense, on the other hand, allowed more passing yards (4,796) than any NFL team that has ever played. So let's award the "Best Move" title to the Packers' decision to deeply supplement their defensive personnel in this draft.

The Packers selected six consecutive defensive players to open this affair, the result of unprecedented maneuvering by general manager Ted Thompson -- who traded up as many times in this draft (three) as he had in his six previous drafts combined. Speaking to reporters in Green Bay, Thompson joked that he is "ashamed" and it was "pathetic" to have given up three of his 11 picks in those trade-ups, but to me that spoke to how seriously the Packers took their defensive slide last season.

Thompson insisted that there was "no intent to do it that way," but that would make for one heck of a coincidence, wouldn't it? Regardless of why it happened, the Packers came away with a pair of pass-rushers/disruptors in linebacker Nick Perry (No. 28 overall) and defensive lineman Jerel Worthy (No. 51) and two defensive backs -- cornerback Casey Hayward (No. 62) and safety Jerron McMillian (No. 133) -- who will have opportunities to compete for immediate playing time.

Worthy, Hayward and linebacker Terrell Manning (No. 163) were the three players Thompson traded up for, giving you an idea of how strongly he must have felt about them. Will this group stabilize the Packers' defense in 2012? It's impossible to predict individual performances, but generally speaking I'll go with this theory: The more the merrier.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

The Detroit Lions had already used their first-round pick on a future need, Iowa tackle Riley Reiff, when they grabbed Oklahoma receiver Ryan Broyles in the second round. Not only did the Lions already have a deep set of pass catchers, but Broyles is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered last November.

So yes, it was initially surprising to see a match between the Lions and Broyles, even though it was easy to understand how the Lions made the decision. As we discussed at the time, the Lions follow their board in as tightly wrapped-up of a vacuum as any team in the NFL. Although they had significant need at cornerback and safety, they had Broyles rated higher and that was that.

Hopefully, those of you who were angry and didn't buy that explanation were assuaged by the latter stages of the Lions' draft. They chose three cornerbacks -- Louisiana-Lafayette's Dwight Bentley at No. 85, Albion's Chris Greenwood at No. 148 and New Mexico State's Jonte Green at No. 196 -- over their next five selections and finished with six consecutive defensive picks overall.

RISKIEST MOVE

The riskiest move in this draft was one that actually didn't happen. The Chicago Bears did nothing to address their personnel along the offensive line, first in free agency and now the draft.

It's true that a pair of 2011 starters who suffered season-ending injuries, tackle Gabe Carimi and guard Chris Williams, will return in 2012. And the promotion of Mike Tice to offensive coordinator should provide linemen with more help and less one-on-one responsibility than they had in the previous two seasons.

But the bottom line is the Bears have been forced to undergo multiple rounds of midseason patchwork in each of the past two seasons to lessen the punishment on quarterback Jay Cutler. When coach Lovie Smith said last month that he was confident in his current lineup, many of us wondered if he was just covering the Bears' draft plans.

He wasn't, which means the Bears are setting themselves up for another choppy season of personnel changes if their confidence proves unfounded.

FILE IT AWAY

We noted before the draft that the NFC North stood on the precipice of transition from the Black and Blue to the Air and Space division. You could make an argument that all four NFC North teams had a need at running back, especially the Packers and Lions. But as the NFL continues to move toward the passing game, it was reasonable to wonder whether anyone would act on those needs.

They did not. In fact, not a single running back was drafted in this division through the first six rounds. The Packers declined to take one in spite of a thin backfield led by injury-prone James Starks. The Lions, meanwhile, didn't deem it necessary despite the questionable health histories of Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure and Kevin Smith.

Message sent, huh?

Never has the NFC North's transition been more visible than on the final day of the 2011 regular season. On a snowy day at Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions combined for 103 passing attempts and 1,000 passing yards.

By the time the Packers secured a 45-41 victory, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford had exceeded 5,000 yards passing for the season and Packers backup Matt Flynn had convinced the league he was a starting-caliber quarterback. Where once we could have expected the teams to grind out a classic Black and Blue game, they instead combined for a total of 37 carries. No running back made it to the modest total of 50 yards.

We've spent some time this offseason noting what we could politely call a tilt toward the passing game in both Detroit and Green Bay. We've discussed the Chicago Bears' seeming ambivalence about signing tailback Matt Forte to a long-term extension, and we've pointed out the Minnesota Vikings' uncertainty as tailback Adrian Peterson rehabilitates his shredded knee.

If you looked at this division through a traditional lens, you could consider running back a significant draft need for at least half of the division, if not all of it. But the NFC North's frenzied quarterback acquisitions over the past few years have brought us to a precipice. Are we ready to jump off, once and for all, into the world of Air and Space? Or will our teams step away from that ledge and rebalance their personnel, if not their scheme, to double back on the running game?

As the NFL continues its push toward passing supremacy, it's hard to imagine any NFC North team making anything other than subtle changes. Why take the ball out of the hands Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler or Stafford? And why not give Christian Ponder every chance to take the next step in his development?

This offseason, we've heard the Vikings speak often about seeking more playmakers for Ponder. We've watched the Bears sign Michael Bush as insurance against Forte's possible absence, but otherwise the Bears have worked to fortify their passing game with the acquisition of receiver Brandon Marshall and private meetings with many of the draft's top receivers, from Michael Floyd to Stephen Hill to Alshon Jeffery.

The Lions are the case study here, followed closely by the Packers. Injuries to Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, Kevin Smith and the brain tumor of Jerome Harrison left them little choice but to rely on Stafford's arm last season. They finished 2011 with the second-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL, managed 71 rushing first downs (No. 29 in the league), according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Stafford told reporters this week that "everybody on our team would like to be a little more balanced than we were last year." It's reasonable to think they will be if Best and/or Leshoure are available full-time. But a serious commitment to improve would almost certainly require a draft investment. Best (concussion) has not been cleared for football work, Leshoure (Achilles) is coming back from a serious injury for a running back, and Smith has had difficulty staying healthy throughout his career.

How much do the Lions value that balance? We should find out over draft weekend. Again, most of us would look at their roster and toss question marks all over their backfield. But in 2012, how important is it to have an established and traditional No. 1 running back?

"We want to score as many points as we can," coach Jim Schwartz said at the NFL scouting combine. "Whether you do it running or passing, it doesn't matter. I think you want to try to get the ball in playmakers' hands."

In the end, the Lions might be best-served by pursuing a more modest goal: Being in position to capitalize against imbalanced defenses. Dictating a game on the ground might well be an NFC North artifact.

"If teams take the approach of playing the pass first," Schwartz said, "we should be in the position of having running backs who can make them pay for that."

Yes, there is a more than reasonable argument to be made that you don't need an elite running back when you have elite quarterbacks and receivers. A competent running back who doesn't miss the obvious yards might well suffice.

I don't know if the Lions, or the Packers for that matter, will invest a high draft pick in a running back. None of us do. But is it necessary? Probably not, at least not in our new Air and Space division. Soon we'll know how far off the cliff we've fallen.

One man's opinion on the top five Monday night games for 2012:

1. Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, Week 16. Call this one the Karma Bowl. The Falcons took offense when Ndamukong Suh allegedly celebrated Matt Ryan's ankle injury during an October game between the teams last season. Suh called the injury "karma" for the Falcons' allegedly dirty tactics. Good teams and bad blood should make for good theater.

2. Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons, Week 2. Peyton Manning's first post-Indy appearance on "Monday Night Football" takes him to Atlanta for only the third time in his career. The Falcons are a footnote in this matchup. Manning plays only one indoor game during the 2012 regular season. This is it.

3. Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 12. Neither team had a winning record last season, but who cares? This game presents a chance to see Cam Newton and Michael Vick on the same night in the same stadium for the first time -- assuming they're both healthy enough to play after running around, into and through defenses for two-plus months.

4. Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers, Week 11. Patrick Willis vs. Matt Forte. Brian Urlacher vs. Frank Gore. Expect a physical game and a big test for Jay Cutler on the road. The 49ers have arguably the NFL's best defense and they'll be eager to show it in prime time.

5. Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 3. Two NFC West teams on the list? What is this, the NFC West blog? Yes, but this one's legit. Few venues can approach Seattle for atmosphere, especially in prime time. And this game marks Green Bay's lone appearance on Monday night. The Matt Flynn storyline adds interest.

Breakdown: The NFL gave the Chicago Bears the maximum allowable number of prime-time games. Amazingly, all five will come in the first 10 games of the season. (Full schedule here.)

They include a Week 2 trip to the Green Bay Packers (Thursday night), a Week 4 trip to the Dallas Cowboys (Monday night), a Week 6 game hosting the Detroit Lions (Monday night), a Week 10 game hosting the Houston Texans (Sunday night) and another the following week, at the San Francisco 49ers (Monday night).

That should leave no doubt about the entertainment value, if not competitiveness, the NFL is expecting from the Bears after the reunion of receiver Brandon Marshall and quarterback Jay Cutler, along with other offseason improvements.

Complaint department: Soldier Field is a great advantage in the second half of the season, but the Bears will play three of their final four games on the road. They'll no doubt appreciate hosting the Packers in Week 14, but they'll conclude the season with a long trip to the Arizona Cardinals followed by a season finale at the Lions, a game that figures to carry heavy playoff implications.

For openers: Like the Packers, the Bears play their first two games in five days. Unlike the Packers, however, the Bears don't get both of them at home. After hosting the Indianapolis Colts in the Sept. 9 opener, they'll travel to Lambeau Field on Sept. 13. But as quick road turnarounds go, it doesn't get any easier than the quick trip trip between Chicago and Green Bay.

Bears Regular-Season Schedule (All times Eastern)
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 9, Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 13, at Green Bay, 8:20 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, St. Louis, 1:00 PM
Week 4: Monday, Oct. 1, at Dallas, 8:30 PM
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 7, at Jacksonville, 4:05 PM
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: Monday, Oct. 22, Detroit, 8:30 PM
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 28, Carolina, 1:00 PM
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 4, at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 11, Houston, 8:20 PM
Week 11: Monday, Nov. 19, at San Francisco, 8:30 PM
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 25, Minnesota, 1:00 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2, Seattle, 1:00 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 16, Green Bay, 1:00 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 23, at Arizona, 4:15 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 30, at Detroit, 1:00 PM

For those of you who keep track of such things, let it be known that ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer has made an about-face on the future of Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler.

It was only a year ago when Dilfer said that poor mechanics would limit Cutler's career until he committed to fixing them. "He could be an elite player in this league, but he won't be until he dedicates himself to dealing with the basic things that will bring out and maximize his potential," Dilfer said. "They tend to show up, the laziness with his mechanics, the flaws show up, late in games, red zones, critical downs, tight games."

In this recent "QBs on the Clock" video, Dilfer named Cutler as an NFL quarterback most likely to step into elite status.

"I think Jay Cutler is going to blow up this year," Dilfer said. "I saw so much last year. I think once I saw it in person, being at 'Monday Night Football.' Watching his demeanor. The body language changed. The toughness. The talent has always been there. I saw him pay more attention to detail."

Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. chose Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, pointing out: "I've loved him since high school."

I realize you are split on the value of outside analysis, but I think we can agree we found out how good Cutler can be last season. Dilfer might have said it with more flamboyance, but especially after the acquisition of receiver Brandon Marshall, I expect many outside analysts to hop on the Cutler bandwagon in the coming months.

I typically put my best virtual stiff arm on all attempts to project the division finish until at least after the draft, if not once after training camp. It's a fun debate whenever we have it, but I figure we should at least have a strong sense of the makeup of each roster before diving in.

So consider this post a preview to that inevitable discussion, spurred by an interesting analogy from Detroit Lions receiver Nate Burleson during an appearance this week on the NFL Network. (Video here.)

Burleson was asked if the Lions are ready to win the division. His full response:

"I think so. I don't want to sit here and tell you what we're going to do. Obviously I'm confident in the team. We lost a couple close games to Green Bay, split with Chicago, and had a good showing against Minnesota last year.

"But from an outside perspective, I think everybody looks at it like this: Green Bay is driving the car. Up front in the passenger seat is Chicago. In the back, you've got the Vikings and you've got the Lions. We're sitting there begging them, asking them, 'Are we there yet, are we there yet?'

"It's time for us to get out of the car and see who wants to drive. The division is up for anybody who wants it. We've got a tough division, and I like it."

Why are the Bears in the front seat and why are the Lions still in the restless kids' area? Perhaps Burleson was recognizing -- fairly, I think -- that the Bears had a step on the Lions last season until quarterback Jay Cutler's fractured thumb changed the outlook. Would the Lions have been a playoff team if Cutler stayed healthy? Fair question.

The Packers, who won the Super Bowl in 2010 and were 15-1 last season, will get the benefit of the doubt in most national discussions. But if the point of Burleson's response was to suggest this is a three-team race (sorry, Vikings), then I'm on board. The Lions did enough last season to be rightfully included in the discussion with the Packers and Bears. Let's see if anyone's draft changes the parameters of this debate.

My trip to the NFL owners meetings last month included a chance encounter with an NFL executive. We discussed the state of what has become a highly competitive and interesting division from a league perspective, given the Green Bay Packers' recent success, the Detroit Lions' explosive offense and the Chicago Bears' flurry of offseason improvements.

And then we got to the Minnesota Vikings.

"Big year for Leslie Frazier," the executive said. "Big year."

That perspective caught me by surprise, given that Frazier has spent exactly one full season as the Vikings' permanent head coach. But Frazier is also entering what reportedly is the final fully guaranteed year of his contract, and the long-term approach the Vikings have taken toward building their roster provides a substantial challenge to a coach with limited job security.

That's a nice way of saying Frazier probably needs to do a lot better in 2012 than the 3-13 record he produced last year, but with a roster that won't be constructed to support a quick turnaround. It's an unfortunate collection of circumstances that Frazier is only partially to blame for, but when viewed in the big picture, you can understand why the executive sees 2012 as a pressure point for his career.

(My friend Judd Zulgad of 1500ESPN.com made a similar point last week.)

When the Vikings promoted Rick Spielman to general manager in January, Frazier said the move "should help me tremendously." Generally speaking, working for a good general manager is a healthy situation for any coach.

But since that point, the Vikings have dismantled their offensive line by releasing both starting guards and making plans to shift left tackle Charlie Johnson inside. They've given young quarterback Christian Ponder one more established playmaker, tight end John Carlson, but otherwise left their offensive skill positions untouched in free agency. They've bid farewell to their nose tackle and middle linebacker, tapping longtime backups as the likely successor in each role, and left untouched two safety positions that ended 2011 in shambles.

Spielman has made no secret of his intention: To get younger, to find blue-chip players in the draft and to supplement with complementary players in free agency. That's a sound philosophy for building long-term success, but it sure doesn't work in favor of a coach whose career record is now 6-16.

Take a look at the chart. A little more than half of the NFL's coaches (18 of 32) have reached a third full season in their jobs. Only four of them made it without the benefit of at least one non-losing season in their first two. And the only two who didn't demonstrate progress were the Washington Redskins' Mike Shanahan and the Seattle Seahawks' Pete Carroll, both of whom carried enough celebrity status -- and not to mention huge financial investments -- to be all but assured of a third season from the moment they arrived.

But consider the Vikings' placement in the NFC North, which put three teams among the top 10 in ESPN.com's most recent Power Rankings. Remember that they will be starting Ponder, who is in the midst of his first NFL offseason. Ponder will play behind a rebuilt offensive line, with a set of receivers who will either be underwhelming or inexperienced or both.

In a best-case scenario, tailback Adrian Peterson (knee) will resume football activities shortly before the season begins. And in a division that includes star quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler, it's worth noting the Vikings' historically poor pass defense hasn't been enhanced this offseason with a single defensive back who could be considered a starter. (Perhaps that sentence will need editing after the draft.)

Does that seem like a collection of circumstances favorable to a coach demonstrating significant progress in 2012? Not particularly, no.

To be clear, I don't think the Vikings are in an inappropriate spot as a franchise. This has been coming since the moment they failed to reach the Super Bowl in 2009. It's just poor timing for Frazier.

The best time to make these kinds of difficult decisions is in the first year of a coach's tenure. You take the resulting lumps when your job is most secure, and then presumably demonstrate steady progress thereafter. The Vikings lost 13 of 16 games last season in a misguided attempt to push an aging roster toward one final playoff berth. It was a lost year in every way, and only now do they face a the proverbial bottoming-out. I don't want to say Leslie Frazier is set up to fail, but the deck seems stacked against him.

Peyton Manning's first appearance in Denver Broncos’ uniform will come against a former Denver quarterback.

The NFL announced Denver will open the preseason at Chicago and quarterback Jay Cutler. The game will be closely watched around the country. It will be Manning’s first game action since 2010. He missed all of the 2011 season with a neck injury.

Below are the preseason schedules (most of the dates have not been announced) for each AFC West team. Every team in the division but Kansas City received a national-televised game. As previously announced, the annual Oakland-San Francisco preseason game will not be played this season. There was severe fan violence at last year’s game.

Denver

Week 1 at Chicago

Week 2 vs. Seattle

Aug. 26 vs. San Francisco, 4 p.m. ET, Fox

Week 4 at Arizona

Kansas City

Week 1 vs. Arizona

Week 2 at St. Louis

Week 3 vs. Seattle

Week 4 at Green Bay

Oakland

Aug. 13 vs. Dallas, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Week 2 at Arizona

Week 3 vs. Detroit

Week 4 at Seattle

San Diego

Aug. 9 vs. Green Bay, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Week 2 vs. Dallas

Week 3 at Minnesota

Week 4 at San Francisco

If you saw Donovan McNabb on "First Take" today, you know what this is about. If you haven't, here's the clip. McNabb, the former Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins quarterback, was asked if he thinks Robert Griffin III is a good fit for the Redskins, who are likely to take him with the No. 2 pick in the draft four weeks from today. This was a perfectly teed-up Titleist of a question for McNabb, whose time in Washington was tumultuous to say the least, and he swung hard:

"No. I say that because a lot of times, ego gets too involved when it comes to being in Washington. Here's a guy coming out who's very talented, mobile, strong-armed. We've already heard he's intelligent. Football mind. Are you going to cater the offense around his talents and what he's able to do? Or are you going to bring the Houston offense with Matt Schaub over to him and have him kind of be embedded into that?"

The last part is a clear reference to Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and the idea that he tried to fit McNabb into the offensive system he brought with him from the Texans. But there's more:

"We talk so much about Mike Shanahan and the things that he was able to do in Denver. Well, I have a couple of names for you that Mike Shanahan, quarterbacks he's coached and the lack of success that he's had. We have John Beck, who as 0-4. Rex Grossman, 6-11. Jay Cutler, who was his prized possession, 17-20. Jake Plummer, a guy who had success, led them to the AFC Championship against Pittsburgh and then benched him the next year because he wouldn't do what he wanted him to do pretty much. Brian Griese, who was supposed to be the heir apparent to John Elway and hasn't had a lot of success."

To his credit, Skip Bayless asked McNabb if he had an ax to grind. And to his credit, the first two words of McNabb's response were accurate:

"I do but I don't. The whole deal about it is, we hear so much about players who move on somewhere, how the next year will be a lot better. Give him a chance to learn the offense and understand what we do. I never got that chance. And a lot of people haven't."

My inclination is to tread carefully here, since there's obviously a far greater chance that McNabb spends this next football season in those Bristol studios than on a football field. But the plain fact is, the guy needs a mirror.

McNabb makes some fair points about Mike Shanahan and the lack of success he's had as a head coach with quarterbacks other than Elway. He makes some fair points about egos, and I don't think there's anyone who doubts that Shanahan has a big one. He himself might even admit to that. He's a head football coach. The list of men who are those and don't have egos is a pretty short list.

But McNabb this morning was using a platform to grind his ax, plain and simple. My quickie evaluation of him on TV is that he'll be an excellent NFL analyst as long as he's talking about people he hates. His breakdown of the situation in Washington as it pertained to him ignores these elements:

• He was benched by Eagles coach Andy Reid in 2008 and traded by Reid after the 2009 season to a team that the Eagles play twice a year. Clearly, there were some issues with McNabb even before he got to Washington. You don't trade your starting quarterback to a division rival if you think the guy is still worth having.
• Three separate Redskins people who were with the team during McNabb's only season there have told me that the issue with McNabb was that he didn't want to put in the work during the week. Yes, the system in Washington was different from the one he was used to in Philadelphia, but that McNabb's response to that was to shut down and refuse to learn or practice it. One of those three people told me Shanahan was aware, before making the trade, that McNabb had developed the reputation over his final few seasons in Philadelphia of not wanting to put in the work during the week, but that Shanahan believed he could light a fire under McNabb.
• Shanahan was not able to light that fire, and McNabb lost his job to Rex Grossman during the 2010 season. Rex Grossman, folks. Didn't lose the job to Johnny Unitas or Joe Montana. Couldn't play or practice well enough to fend off a challenge from Rex Grossman.
• The Redskins traded McNabb prior to the 2011 season to the Minnesota Vikings for a sixth-round pick. McNabb must not have liked the egos or the system in Minnesota, either, since he played just six games there before losing the job to rookie Christian Ponder, then demanded his release later in the season after being demoted to the scout team.
• No one picked him up off waivers.
• No one has signed him so far this offseason.
• There has been not one report of any team being interested in signing him.

McNabb's career is almost certainly over, and he's clearly bitter about the way it ended. The Shanahans certainly made some mistakes in handling the McNabb situation and said some things that embarrassed a proud veteran and left him very angry. They are not blameless here. But neither is McNabb, and if he's going to sit there and say things like he said this morning on "First Take," he'd do himself and the rest of us a favor if he uttered maybe just one or two words about his own role in the way things turned out for him in Washington.

It's possible, after all, that Griffin will be excellent in Washington. There's nothing anyone's heard about the young man to indicate he's unwilling to work or learn anything new.